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NASA NTRS2007

Tropospheric Vertical Distribution of Tropical Atlantic Ozone Observed by TES during the Northern African Biomass Burning Season

We present vertical distributions of ozone from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) over the tropical Atlantic Ocean during January 2005. Between 10N and 20S, TES ozone retrievals have Degrees of Freedom for signal (DOF) around 0.7 - 0.8 each for tropospheric altitudes above and below 500 hPa. As a result, TES is able to capture for the first time from space a distribution characterized by two maxima: one in the lower troposphere north of the ITCZ and one in the middle and upper troposphere south of the ITCZ. We focus our analysis on the north tropical Atlantic Ocean, where most of previous satellite observations showed discrepancies with in-situ ozone observations and models. Trajectory analyses and a sensitivity study using the GEOS-Chem model confirm the influence of northern Africa biomass burning on the elevated ozone mixing ratios observed by TES over this region.

satellite observations↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modeling Low Intensity Fires: Lessons Learned from 2012 RxCADRE

Coupled fire-atmosphere models are increasingly being used to study low-intensity fires, such as those that are used in prescribed fire applications. Thus, the need arises to evaluate these models for their ability to accurately represent fire spread in marginal burning conditions. In this study, wind and fuel data collected during the Prescribed Fire Combustion and Atmospheric Dynamics Research Experiments (RxCADRE) fire campaign were used to generate initial and boundary conditions for coupled fire-atmosphere simulations. We present a novel method to obtain fuels representation at the model grid scale using a combination of imagery, machine learning, and field sampling. Several methods to generate wind input conditions for the model from eight different anemometer measurements are explored. We find a strong sensitivity of fire outcomes to wind inputs. This result highlights the critical need to include variable wind fields as inputs in modeling marginal fire conditions. This work highlights the complexities of comparing physics-based model results against observations, which are more acute in marginal burning conditions, where stronger sensitivities to local variability in wind and fuels drive fire outcomes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Interannual fires as a source for subarctic summer decadal climate variability mediated by permafrost thawing

Climate model simulations run under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) use an inhomogeneous biomass burning aerosol (BBA) emission dataset, which exhibits pronounced interannual variability from 1997–2014 due to the infusion of satellite data. Using the Community Earth System Model version 2 Large Ensemble (CESM2-LE) with original and smoothed CMIP6 BBA forcings, we show that the CMIP6 data inhomogeneity causes spurious decadal subarctic land warming. During years with reduced aerosol concentrations, increased solar radiation can trigger abrupt subarctic permafrost thawing, increased soil water drainage, upper soil drying, and subsequent surface warming. This slow process, which is further amplified by nonlinear cloud-aerosol interactions, cannot be completely offset during years of increased aerosol fluxes, thereby reddening surface temperature spectra in response to large-amplitude interannual aerosol forcing. More generally, our CESM2 experiments identify a pathway for generating decadal variability in high latitudes, involving interannual shortwave forcing and slow nonlinear soil responses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1980

Isotopic yields of Mg, Al from the carbon and neon zones in the explosion of a massive star

A model is developed for the nucleosynthetic yields from the supernova explosion of a massive star of the sort which has been proposed as the initiating event in the formation of the solar system by Cameron and Truran (1977). Calculations start with the Hugoniot curves, estimating the preshock conditions from a 25 solar masses model at the start of core collapse. It is shown that the products of static carbon burning dominate abundance patterns in the ejecta. Both explosive carbon burning and explosive neon burning contribute significantly to Al-26. The production of Al-26 in this model is consistent with the trigger hypothesis.

Morgan, J. A.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Towards Real-time Global Assessment of Post-fire Debris Flow Hazard

As the risk of wildfires increases worldwide, burned steeplands are vulnerable to the secondary hazard of widespread sediment mobilization through debris flows. Following an initial burn, sediment and soil previously restrained by vegetation are no longer consolidated, allowing for easy mobilization into channels and along steep hillslopes through runoff. Sufficiently powerful rainfall incorporates entrained material into turbulent flows and serves as the primary trigger for debris flow initiation. There is thus an ongoing need to establish the relationship between rainfall and debris flow initiation based on a variety of spatiotemporal preconditions. Previous work establishes regional and local thresholds to constrain the effect of rainfall in recently burned areas, but no empirical or numerical solution has worldwide application. Building from regionally-based efforts in the U.S., this work considers how remote sensing data can be applied to better approximate the post-fire debris flow hazards worldwide using freely available global datasets and software. Our work assesses the utility of remote sensing resources for analyzing burn characteristics, topography, rainfall intensity/duration, and, thus, debris flow initiation. Early results show that global observations are sufficient to delineate background rainfall rates from storms likely to cause debris flows across a variety of burn severity and topographic conditions. However, the dearth of publicly-available post-fire debris flow inventories globally limit the ability to test how the model framework performs within different climatologic and morphologic areas. This work will present preliminary analysis over the Western United States and demonstrate the feasibility of a global, near-real time model to provide situational awareness of potential hazards within recently burned areas worldwide. Future work will also consider how global or regional precipitation forecasts may increase the lead time for improved early warning of these hazards.

Elijah Orland↗

NASA NTRS2006

Adapting Covariance Propagation to Account for the Presence of Modeled and Unmodeled Maneuvers

This paper explores techniques that can be used to adapt the standard linearized propagation of an orbital covariance matrix to the case where there is a maneuver and an associated execution uncertainty. A Monte Carlo technique is used to construct a final orbital covariance matrix for a 'prop-burn-prop' process that takes into account initial state uncertainty and execution uncertainties in the maneuver magnitude. This final orbital covariance matrix is regarded as 'truth' and comparisons are made with three methods using modified linearized covariance propagation. The first method accounts for the maneuver by modeling its nominal effect within the state transition matrix but excludes the execution uncertainty by omitting a process noise matrix from the computation. The second method does not model the maneuver but includes a process noise matrix to account for the uncertainty in its magnitude. The third method, which is essentially a hybrid of the first two, includes the nominal portion of the maneuver via the state transition matrix and uses a process noise matrix to account for the magnitude uncertainty. The first method is unable to produce the final orbit covariance except in the case of zero maneuver uncertainty. The second method yields good accuracy for the final covariance matrix but fails to model the final orbital state accurately. Agreement between the simulated covariance data produced by this method and the Monte Carlo truth data fell within 0.5-2.5 percent over a range of maneuver sizes that span two orders of magnitude (0.1-20 m/s). The third method, which yields a combination of good accuracy in the computation of the final covariance matrix and correct accounting for the presence of the maneuver in the nominal orbit, is the best method for applications involving the computation of times of closest approach and the corresponding probability of collision, PC. However, applications for the two other methods exist and are briefly discussed. Although the process model ("prop-burn-prop") that was studied is very simple - point-mass gravitational effects due to the Earth combined with an impulsive delta-V in the velocity direction for the maneuver - generalizations to more complex scenarios, including high fidelity force models, finite duration maneuvers, and maneuver pointing errors, are straightforward and are discussed in the conclusion.

Schiff, Conrad↗

NASA NTRS2006

Adapting Covariance Propagation to Account for the Presence of Modeled and Unmodeled Maneuvers

This paper explores techniques that can be used to adapt the standard linearized propagation of an orbital covariance matrix to the case where there is a maneuver and an associated execution uncertainty. A Monte Carlo technique is used to construct a final orbital covariance matrix for a 'propagate-burn-propagate' process that takes into account initial state uncertainty and execution uncertainties in the maneuver magnitude. This final orbital covariance matrix is regarded as 'truth' and comparisons between it and three methods using modified linearized covariance propagation are made. The first method accounts for the maneuver by modeling its nominal effect within the state transition matrix but excludes the execution uncertainty by omitting a process noise matrix from the computation. In the second method, the maneuver is not modeled but the uncertainty in its magnitude is accounted for by the inclusion of a process noise matrix. In the third method, which is essentially a hybrid of the first two, the nominal portion of the maneuver is included via the state transition matrix while a process noise matrix is used to account for the magnitude uncertainty. Since this method also correctly accounts for the presence of the maneuver in the nominal orbit, it is the best method for applications involving the computation of times of closest approach and the corresponding probability of collision, Pc. However, applications for the two other methods exist and are briefly discussed. Despite the fact that the process model ('propagate-burn-propagate') that was studied was very simple - point-mass gravitational effects due to the Earth combined with an impulsive delta-V in the velocity direction for the maneuver - generalizations to more complex scenarios, including high fidelity force models, finite duration maneuvers, and maneuver pointing errors, are straightforward and are discussed in the conclusion.

Schiff, Conrad↗

NASA NTRS2008

Effects of the 2006 El Nino on Tropospheric Ozone and Carbon Monoxide: Implications for Dynamics and Biomass Burning

We have studied the effects of the 2006 El Nino on tropospheric O3 and CO at tropical and sub-tropical latitudes measured from the OMI and MLS instruments on the Aura satellite. The 2006 El Nino-induced drought allowed forest fires set to clear land to burn out of control during October and November in the Indonesian region. The effects of these fires are clearly seen in the enhancement of GO concentration measured from the MLS instrument. We have used a global model of atmospheric chemistry and transport (GMI CTM) to quantify the relative irrrportance of biomass burning and large scale transport: in producing observed changes in tropospheric O3 and CO . The model results show that during October and November both biomass burning and meteorological changes contributed almost equally to the observed increase in tropospheric O3 in the Indonesian region. The biomass component was 4-6 DU but it was limited to the Indonesian region where the fires were most intense, The dynamical component was 4-8 DU but it covered a much larger area in the Indian Ocean extending from South East Asia in the north to western Australia in the south. By December 2006, the effect of biomass taming was reduced to zero and the obsemed changes in tropospheric O3 were mostly due to dynamical effects. The model results show an increase of 2-3% in the global burden of tropospheric ozone. In comparison, the global burdean of CO increased by 8-12%.

Chandra, S.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Reduced-Order Modeling and Parameter Identification of Wind Tunnel Measurement Systems

We present a method to develop a physics-based, reduced-order model of a wind tunnel measurement system (including a sting, strain gage force balance, and test article) that can be used to predict the dynamics of the system. This reduced-order model is combined with a simple finite element beam model of a sting to estimate the dynamics of the full assembly. We make comparisons between a full finite element model and the hybrid reduced-order model to show that this hybrid reduced-order model is capable of predicting the first six natural frequencies to within 10% error. This technique could be used to identify reduced-order parameters for a large number of balances and stings, which could then be used to estimate the dynamics of different measurement assemblies.

Reduced-order Modeling↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Reduced-Order Modeling and Parameter Identification of Wind Tunnel Measurement Systems

Reduced-order Modeling↗

DOE OSTI2024

Measurements of dense fuel hydrodynamics in the NIF burning plasma experiments using backscattered neutron spectroscopy

The hydrodynamics of the dense confining fuel shell is of great importance in defining the behavior of the burning plasma and burn propagation regimes of inertial confinement fusion experiments. However, it is difficult to probe due to its low emissivity in comparison with the central fusion core. In this work, we utilize the backscattered neutron spectroscopy technique to directly measure the hydrodynamic conditions of the dense fuel during fusion burn. Experimental data are fit to obtain dense fuel velocities and apparent ion temperatures. Trends of these inferred parameters with yield and velocity of the burning plasma are used to investigate their dependence on alpha heating and low mode drive asymmetry. It is shown that the dense fuel layer has an increased outward radial velocity as yield increases, showing that burn has continued into re-expansion, a key signature of hotspot ignition. A comparison with analytic and simulation models shows that the observed dense fuel parameters are displaying signatures of burn propagation into the dense fuel layer, including a rapid increase in dense fuel apparent ion temperature with neutron yield.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

North American boreal forests are a large carbon source due to wildfires from 1986 to 2016

Wildfires are a major disturbance to forest carbon (C) balance through both immediate combustion emissions and post-fire ecosystem dynamics. Here we used a process-based biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM), to simulate C budget in Alaska and Canada during 1986–2016, as impacted by fire disturbances. We extracted the data of difference Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) for fires from Landsat TM/ETM imagery and estimated the proportion of vegetation and soil C combustion. We observed that the region was a C source of 2.74 Pg C during the 31-year period. The observed C loss, 57.1 Tg C year -1 , was attributed to fire emissions, overwhelming the net ecosystem production (1.9 Tg C year -1 ) in the region. Our simulated direct emissions for Alaska and Canada are within the range of field measurements and other model estimates. As burn severity increased, combustion emission tended to switch from vegetation origin towards soil origin. When dNBR is below 300, fires increase soil temperature and decrease soil moisture and thus, enhance soil respiration. However, the post-fire soil respiration decreases for moderate or high burn severity. The proportion of post-fire soil emission in total emissions increased with burn severity. Net nitrogen mineralization gradually recovered after fire, enhancing net primary production. Net ecosystem production recovered fast under higher burn severities. The impact of fire disturbance on the C balance of northern ecosystems and the associated uncertainties can be better characterized with long-term, prior-, during- and post-disturbance data across the geospatial spectrum. Our findings suggest that the regional source of carbon to the atmosphere will persist if the observed forest wildfire occurrence and severity continues into the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Observationally constrained analysis of sulfur cycle in the marine atmosphere with NASA ATom measurements and AeroCom model simulations

The atmospheric sulfur cycle plays a key role in air quality, climate, and ecosystems, such as pollution, radiative forcing, new particle formation, and acid rain. In this study, we compare the spatially and temporally resolved measurements from the NASA Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) mission with simulations from five AeroCom III models for four sulfur species (dimethyl sulfide (DMS), sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), particulate methanesulfonate (MSA), and particulate sulfate (SO 4 )). We focus on remote regions over the Pacific, Atlantic, and Southern oceans from near the surface to ~12 km altitude range covering all four seasons. In general, the differences among model results can be greater than 1 order of magnitude. Comparing with observations, model-simulated SO 2 is generally low, whereas SO 4 is generally high. Simulated DMS concentrations near the sea surface exceed observed levels by a factor of 5 in most cases, suggesting potential overestimation of DMS emissions in all models. With GEOS model simulations of tagging emission from anthropogenic, biomass burning, volcanic, and oceanic sources, we find that anthropogenic emissions are the dominant source of sulfate aerosol (40 %–60 % of the total amount) in the ATom measurements at almost all altitudes, followed by volcanic emissions (18 %–32 %) and oceanic sources (16 %–32 %). Similar source contributions can also be derived at broad ocean basins and on monthly scales, indicating the representativeness of ATom measurements for global ocean. Our work presents the first assessment of AeroCom sulfur study using ATom measurements, providing directions for improving sulfate simulations, which remain the largest uncertainty in radiative forcing estimates in aerosol climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

On the differences in the vertical distribution of modeled aerosol optical depth over the southeastern Atlantic

Abstract. The southeastern Atlantic is home to an expansive smoke aerosol plume overlying a large cloud deck for approximately a third of the year. The aerosol plume is mainly attributed to the extensive biomass burning activities that occur in southern Africa. Current Earth system models (ESMs) reveal significant differences in their estimates of regional aerosol radiative effects over this region. Such large differences partially stem from uncertainties in the vertical distribution of aerosols in the troposphere. These uncertainties translate into different aerosol optical depths (AODs) in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and the free troposphere (FT). This study examines differences of AOD fraction in the FT and AOD differences among ESMs (WRF-CAM5, WRF-FINN, GEOS-Chem, EAM-E3SM, ALADIN, GEOS-FP, and MERRA-2) and aircraft-based measurements from the NASA ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS (ORACLES) field campaign. Models frequently define the PBL as the well-mixed surface-based layer, but this definition misses the upper parts of decoupled PBLs, in which most low-level clouds occur. To account for the presence of decoupled boundary layers in the models, the height of maximum vertical gradient of specific humidity profiles from each model is used to define PBL heights. Results indicate that the monthly mean contribution of AOD in the FT to the total-column AOD ranges from 44 % to 74 % in September 2016 and from 54 % to 71 % in August 2017 within the region bounded by 25∘ S–0∘ N–S and 15∘ W–15∘ E (excluding land) among the ESMs. ALADIN and GEOS-Chem show similar aerosol plume patterns to a derived above-cloud aerosol product from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) during September 2016, but none of the models show a similar above-cloud plume pattern to MODIS in August 2017. Using the second-generation High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL-2) to derive an aircraft-based constraint on the AOD and the fractional AOD, we found that WRF-CAM5 produces 40 % less AOD than those from the HSRL-2 measurements, but it performs well at separating AOD fraction between the FT and the PBL. AOD fractions in the FT for GEOS-Chem and EAM-E3SM are, respectively, 10 % and 15 % lower than the AOD fractions from the HSRL-2. Their similar mean AODs reflect a cancellation of high and low AOD biases. Compared with aircraft-based observations, GEOS-FP, MERRA-2, and ALADIN produce 24 %–36 % less AOD and tend to misplace more aerosols in the PBL. The models generally underestimate AODs for measured AODs that are above 0.8, indicating their limitations at reproducing high AODs. The differences in the absolute AOD, FT AOD, and the vertical apportioning of AOD in different models highlight the need to continue improving the accuracy of modeled AOD distributions. These differences affect the sign and magnitude of the net aerosol radiative forcing, especially when aerosols are in contact with clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Skeletal Kinetics Reduction for Astrophysical Reaction Networks

A novel methodology is developed to extract accurate skeletal reaction models for nuclear combustion. Local sensitivities of isotope mass fractions with respect to reaction rates are modeled based on the forced optimally time-dependent (f-OTD) scheme. These sensitivities are then analyzed temporally to generate skeletal models. The methodology is demonstrated by conducting skeletal reduction of constant density and temperature burning of carbon and oxygen relevant to Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia). The 495-isotopes Torch model is chosen as the detailed reaction network. A map of maximum production of 56 Ni in SNe Ia is produced for different temperatures, densities, and proton-to-neutron ratios. The f-OTD simulations and the sensitivity analyses are then performed with initial conditions from this map. A series of skeletal models are derived and their performances are assessed by comparison against currently existing skeletal models. Previous models have been constructed intuitively by assuming the dominance of α-chain reactions. The comparison of the newly generated skeletal models against previous models is based on the predicted energy release and 44 Ti and 56 Ni abundances by each model. The consequences of ye ≠ 0.5 in the initial composition are also explored where ye is the electron fraction. The simulated results show that 56 Ni production decreases by decreasing ye as expected, and that the 43 Sc is a key isotope in proton and neutron channels toward 56 Ni production. It is shown that an f-OTD skeletal model with 150 isotopes can accurately predict the 56Ni abundance in SNe Ia for ye ≲ 0.5 initial conditions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Toward the implementation of self-powered, wireless, real-time reactor power sensing

The successful development of real-time, self-powered, wireless reactor power sensing technology would enable key operating parameters of every fuel assembly in a commercial reactor core to be continuously monitored, and potentially be utilized for applications such as closed-loop reactor control. This paper discusses the expansion of successful work on the application of Self Powered Neutron Detectors (SPND) for reactor power monitoring and the wireless transmission of these detector signals using advanced vacuum micro-electronic (VME) transmitter technology developed by Westinghouse in collaboration with the Penn State University Radiation Science and Engineering Center. Results demonstrate that this technology may be successfully applied via long-term testing in the Penn State TRIGA reactor. SPND are inherently slower than, for example, ion chambers due to their dependence on radioactive decay to generate a signal. Additional research developed delay compensation algorithms to accelerate the response of these detectors for use in near-real-time closed-loop reactor control. Initial results indicate that practical signal acceleration can be obtained digitally or with an equivalent analog circuit. Future research will apply an inverse model of the sensor’s balance differential equations to more-effectively accelerate the SPND signal. Use of inverse models will also prove to be adaptive in the sense that time-dependent burn-up of these detectors, due to neutron activation of the detector material, can be modeled and applied in the acceleration algorithm.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

NASA NTRS1981

Effects of AP size distribution on the pressure-coupled response function

Progress in theoretical and experimental research to determine effects of AP size distribution on the pressure-coupled response function is presented. The theoretical model was based upon a preferred frequency mechanism in which ordered fluctuations in the propellant formulation, dependent upon the heterogeneity, contributed to the response. Experiments to charaterize and relate the heterogeneity to response function behavior consisted of scanning electron microscope studies and measurements of dynamic burning at constant pressure. The concept, differences between ideal models and real propellants, and results thus far obtained are discussed.

Cohen, N. S.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Effects of Repeated Fire on Florida Oak-Saw Palmetto Scrub

Background: The dominant species of Florida oak-saw palmetto scrub sprout after burning from belowground rhizomes or fire-resistant aboveground buds with rapid reestablishment of cover. Responses to single fires are well documented; however, responses to repeated fires may differ. Fire return intervals, differences among sites, and species may influence responses. We used transect data from four sites on Kennedy Space Center/Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge to test whether growth differed through repeated fires. Two sites burned five times in 36 years, one site burned five times in 25 years, and one burned four times in 18 years. We used linear mixed models that account for repeated measures to determine if the number of fires affected height, total cover ≥ 0.5 m and < 0.5 m, bare ground, and cover of the dominant oak (Quercus) ≥ 0.5 m and of saw palmetto (Serenoa repens) ≥ 0.5 m. We compared community composition through repeated fires using nonmetric multidimensional scaling ordination. Results: Height, total cover ≥ 0.5 m, and cover of the dominant oak ≥ 0.5 m and of saw palmetto ≥ 0.5 m increased with time since burn; total cover < 0.5 m and bare ground decreased. A quadratic term in the growth model was significant except for total cover < 0.5 m. There were site differences for all variables except bare ground. The number of fires decreased height, total cover ≥ 0.5 m, and cover of the dominant oak ≥ 0.5 and increased total cover < 0.5 m and bare ground but had no effect on cover of Serenoa repens ≥ 0.5 m. Community changes after repeated fires were similar in nonmetric multidimensional ordinations with time since burn correlated to the first or second axis. Conclusions: Scrub recovered from repeated fires at a range of intervals and seasons, but short return intervals reduced growth with responses differing among species.

Florida↗