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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Decision Aid for Conjunction Risk Mitigation by Differential Drag

In the previous five years, the rate of conjunctions that the NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team processed and analyzed has more than tripled. (NASA CARA, 2024) New missions in the early development phases are now required to plan for dealing with conjunctions under the present space environment, and also projecting forward into a future likely with even further increased utilization of the space environment. Some missions are investigating the possibility of using differential drag to remediate conjunctions without expending limited fuel or for missions without propulsive capabilities. The NASA CARA team studied the historical record of conjunctions to evaluate the circumstances under which differential drag may be successfully applied and have developed a series of tables to use as a decision aid for missions considering differential drag. Currently, if a CARA-protected mission with maneuvering capabilities is predicted to have a conjunction with probability of collision (Pc) greater than 7E-5 (the default value of the ‘yellow threshold’, which may have some other value agreed by CARA and the mission during the Orbital Collison Avoidance Planning (OCAP) process), CARA will use its Maneuver Trade Space (MTS) tool to evaluate and recommend options for the timing and magnitude of a risk mitigation maneuver (RMM), based on the mission’s capabilities. If the conjunction’s Pc is greater than 1E-4, the ‘red threshold’, then an RMM must be executed per NASA Procedural Requirements (NPR) 8079.1 (NASA, 2023), although missions may execute an RMM even if the Pc is lower. The magnitude of the maneuver is typically a few cm/s, and CARA estimates how many will be required for the mission’s nominal lifetime – typically a few per year – during the OCAP process, to inform the mission’s delta-V requirement. For traditional satellites, this is usually smaller than other requirements for orbit insertion, maintenance, and disposal, but for CubeSats or other small satellite missions, a propulsion system may not provide much more than a few cm/s of delta-V or may not fit at all within the available budget of money, time, size, weight, and/or power (SWaP). Conversely, CubeSats often have deployable solar panels, which offer the capacity to have much higher areas facing some directions than others. Such a mission can instead use ‘differential drag’ to remediate a conjunction -- in other words, change its drag area (usually increasing) to deviate from the predicted collision course. This is how Planet’s Dove spacecraft maintain their formations and remediate conjunction risks without having on-board propulsion (Foster, et al., 2017) (Griffith, et al., 2021). CARA has been developing improvements to MTS to support differential-drag for NASA's missions -- where it is effective. CARA records all conjunctions of their protected payloads, with historical records starting in 2005 (with significant conjunction events starting to occur on or after 2013). From this record, approximately 7,300 had a Pc greater than 1E-4 at 3 days prior to the time of closest approach, the time analyzed for differential drag efficacy. Of those, approximately 4,300 had fully-defined covariance matrices stored for both the primary and secondary objects; this set of conjunctions is the basis for the analysis of this work. CARA’s MTS tool was used to propagate the primary satellite forward from that decision point with varying degrees of increase to ballistic coefficient (BC). Because these conjunctions came from multiple missions, the nondimensional ‘delta-BC’ factor was used to quantify and normalize the increase in ballistic coefficient, defined as follows: Delta-BC = BC_new / BC_old - 1 Positive delta-BC factors represent an increase in drag compared to the nominal attitude, while negative delta-BC factors (to a minimum of -1) represent a decrease in drag. At the conclusion of the differential-drag ‘maneuver’, the Pc was recalculated to evaluate whether or not the conjunction was mitigated (Pc < 3E-6). These results were then binned and sorted along several axes, including altitude, amount of delta-BC, and (pre-maneuver) rate of energy dissipation (EDR), to identify underlying patterns. The altitude plot is shown in Figure 1. To validate this analysis, we consulted the record of a NASA mission which uses differential drag to maintain its orbit and remediate conjunction risk. CARA’s empirical record of the mission’s orbit history suggests it achieves a delta-BC of 2.2. Of the twenty-one RMM plans that were submitted by this mission, eighteen were matched with conjunctions in the historical record; of those, twelve were successfully remediated (final measured Pc < 3E-6), and six were not. This is consistent with the expected efficacy for missions orbiting at that altitude. We are presently simulating this mission’s RMMs with MTS; this work is ongoing, but so far, the MTS results are qualitatively in agreement with the empirical results -- correctly predicting that a maneuver would or would not remediate a conjunction, if not exactly matching the final post-remediation Pc value. We found that differential drag was most successful for satellites with perigees below 560 km, and which could adopt an average delta-BC of 2 or greater (that is, increasing their ballistic coefficient by a factor of 3). However, this is a difficult threshold for a mission to clear; very few spacecraft are capable of adopting a high-drag configuration for 72 hours continuously. Planet’s Dove spacecraft use differential drag to remediate conjunctions (Griffith, et al., 2021), and they have a maximum delta-BC factor of 9, but in practice (with mission and charging constraints) they achieve a time-averaged delta-BC that is closer to 2 (Foster, et al., 2017). A mission’s differential drag utility strongly depends on the operational constraints that has the capacity to limit the time-averaged delta-BC. A mission with a high maximum delta-BC of 5 or more can have an effective delta-BC of less than 1 due to operational constraints such as instrument and solar panel pointing, especially if this constraint results in holding an intermediate drag value for most of its orbit. CARA has developed tables that can be used as decision aids to advise missions-in-development about the best way to utilize their differential drag capabilities. For missions below 560 km with the operational flexibility to devote multiple days to holding a high-drag configuration (or a sufficiently high drag ratio to compensate for limitations on that time), they are -- more likely than not -- able to successfully remediate high-risk conjunctions. Conversely, missions that do not meet these exacting criteria -- most missions -- can instead be advised to use on-board propulsion systems to perform RMMs, or to turn their minimum-area face towards the approach vector, thereby reducing Pc at the moment of conjunction due to the decreased Hard-Body Radius (HBR), that is a strongly correlated variable in the Pc calculations. (NASA, 2023)

conjunction assessment↗
NASA NTRS1984

The SEASAT altimeter wet tropospheric range correction revisited

An expanded set of radiosonde observations was used to calculate the wet tropospheric range correction for the brightness temperature measurements of the SEASAT scanning multichannel microwave radiometer (SMMR). The accuracy of the conventional algorithm for wet tropospheric range correction was evaluated. On the basis of the expanded observational data set, the algorithm was found to have a bias of about 1.0 cm, and a standard deviation 2.8 cm. In order to improve the algorithm, the exact linear, quadratic and logarithmic relationships between brightness temperatures and range corrections were determined. Various combinations of measurement parameters were used to reduce the standard deviation between SEASAT SMMR and radiosonde observations to about 2.1 cm. The performance of various range correction formulas is compared in a table.

Tapley, D. B.↗
NASA NTRS1991

The effects of compressor seventh-stage bleed air extraction on performance of the F100-PW-220 afterburning turbofan engine

A study was conducted to determine the effects of seventh-stage compressor bleed on the performance of the F100 afterburning turbofan engine. The effects of bleed on thrust, specific fuel consumption, fan turbine inlet temperature, bleed total pressure, and bleed total temperature were obtained from the engine manufacturer's status deck computer simulation. These effects were determined for power settings of intermediate, partial afterburning, and maximum afterburning for Mach numbers between 0.6 and 2.2 and for altitudes of 30,000, 40,000, and 50,000 ft. It was found that thrust loss and specific fuel consumption increase were approximately linear functions of bleed flow and, based on a percent-thrust change basis, were approximately independent of power setting.

Evans, Alison B.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Arctic Sea ice studies with passive microwave satellite observations

The objectives of this research are: (1) to improve sea ice concentration determinations from passive microwave space observations; (2) to study the role of Arctic polynyas in the production of sea ice and the associated salinization of Arctic shelf water; and (3) to study large scale sea ice variability in the polar oceans. The strategy is to analyze existing data sets and data acquired from both the DMSP SSM/I and recently completed aircraft underflights. Special attention will be given the high resolution 85.5 GHz SSM/I channels for application to thin ice algorithms and processes studies. Analysis of aircraft and satellite data sets is expected to provide a basis for determining the potential of the SSM/I high frequency channels for improving sea ice algorithms and for investigating oceanic processes. Improved sea ice algorithms will aid the study of Arctic coastal polynyas which in turn will provide a better understanding of the role of these polynyas in maintaining the Arctic watermass structure. Analysis of satellite and archived meteorological data sets will provide improved estimates of annual, seasonal and shorter-term sea ice variability.

Cavalieri, D. J.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Real-Time Diagnosis of Faults Using a Bank of Kalman Filters

A new robust method of automated real-time diagnosis of faults in an aircraft engine or a similar complex system involves the use of a bank of Kalman filters. In order to be highly reliable, a diagnostic system must be designed to account for the numerous failure conditions that an aircraft engine may encounter in operation. The method achieves this objective though the utilization of multiple Kalman filters, each of which is uniquely designed based on a specific failure hypothesis. A fault-detection-and-isolation (FDI) system, developed based on this method, is able to isolate faults in sensors and actuators while detecting component faults (abrupt degradation in engine component performance). By affording a capability for real-time identification of minor faults before they grow into major ones, the method promises to enhance safety and reduce operating costs. The robustness of this method is further enhanced by incorporating information regarding the aging condition of an engine. In general, real-time fault diagnostic methods use the nominal performance of a "healthy" new engine as a reference condition in the diagnostic process. Such an approach does not account for gradual changes in performance associated with aging of an otherwise healthy engine. By incorporating information on gradual, aging-related changes, the new method makes it possible to retain at least some of the sensitivity and accuracy needed to detect incipient faults while preventing false alarms that could result from erroneous interpretation of symptoms of aging as symptoms of failures. The figure schematically depicts an FDI system according to the new method. The FDI system is integrated with an engine, from which it accepts two sets of input signals: sensor readings and actuator commands. Two main parts of the FDI system are a bank of Kalman filters and a subsystem that implements FDI decision rules. Each Kalman filter is designed to detect a specific sensor or actuator fault. When a sensor or actuator fault occurs, large estimation errors are generated by all filters except the one using the correct hypothesis. By monitoring the residual output of each filter, the specific fault that has occurred can be detected and isolated on the basis of the decision rules. A set of parameters that indicate the performance of the engine components is estimated by the "correct" Kalman filter for use in detecting component faults. To reduce the loss of diagnostic accuracy and sensitivity in the face of aging, the FDI system accepts information from a steady-state-condition-monitoring system. This information is used to update the Kalman filters and a data bank of trim values representative of the current aging condition.

Kobayashi, Takahisa↗
NASA NTRS1975

Numerical experiments on short-term meteorological effects on solar variability

A set of numerical experiments was conducted to test the short-range sensitivity of a large atmospheric general circulation model to changes in solar constant and ozone amount. On the basis of the results of 12-day sets of integrations with very large variations in these parameters, it is concluded that realistic variations would produce insignificant meteorological effects. Any causal relationships between solar variability and weather, for time scales of two weeks or less, rely upon changes in parameters other than solar constant or ozone amounts, or upon mechanisms not yet incorporated in the model.

Somerville, R. C. J.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Constraining Oceanic Sources and Sinks of CO2 by Inverse Modeling: A First Step Toward Assimilation of In Situ and Remote Data

The primary goal of this collaborative project, lead by Nicholas Gruber at UCLA, is to better quantify the air-sea fluxes of pre-industrial and anthropogenic carbon dioxide CO2 for the global ocean with a newly developed inverse method. The method involves using ocean general circulation models (OGCMs) to characterize the subsurface distribution of tracers injected for different regions of the ocean surface. By linearly combining a series of these basis (or Greens) functions, one should be able to recreate any arbitrary ocean tracer field. In our case, we are using the global database of ocean dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) from the WOCE/JGOFS global CO2 survey from the 1990s. The observed DIC field has been partitioned into pre-industrial and anthropogenic components using the empirical C* technique. We then solve for an optimal combination of the regional basis functions that best match the two sets observations in a least-squares sense with singular value decomposition. This in turn provides solutions for the regional air-sea CO2 fluxes (pre-industrial and anthropogenic) that are independent of more traditional estimates derived from surface water disequilibria in the partial pressure of CO2 and wind speed gas exchange parameterizations. We are apply the method to a suite of nine different OGCMs to test the robustness of the derived surface fluxes fields to differences in ocean circulation. Together with a collegue Keith Lindsay at NCAR, S. Doney's role in this project was to create the appropriate steady-state and temporally evolving basis functions from the NCAR CSM-1 ocean circulation model. Because of a slow start across the project in defining a common set of experimental protocols, we requested and were given a one year, no cost extension. Both the steady-state and temporally evolving basis functions were delivered to the UCLA group for further analysis. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Doney, Scott↗
NASA NTRS1986

Global duricrust on Mars - Analysis of remote-sensing data

A study is conducted of the infrared thermal emission, radio thermal emission, and radar reflection data sets with the objective to obtain a simple and self-consistent model for the Mars surface. The results are compared with in situ observations at the Viking Lander sites. Attention is given to thermal inertia values, the abundance of surface rocks, radar/thermal correlations, diurnal temperature deviations, and radio emission data. It is suggested that all of the global remote-sensing data sets considered can be reconciled on the basis of variations in the degree of formation of a case-hardened crust or duricrust. On the other hand, no other model which has been proposed in conjunction with any individual data set can satisfy all of the constraints discussed.

Jakosky, B. M.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Satellite-based remote sensing data set of global surface water storage change from 1992 to 2018

The recent availability of freely and openly available satellite remote sensing products has enabled the implementation of global surface water monitoring at a level not previously possible. Here we present a global set of satellite-derived time series of surface water storage variations for lakes and reservoirs for a period that covers the satellite altimetry era. Our goals are to promote the use of satellite-derived products for the study of large inland water bodies and to set the stage for the expected availability of products from the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission, which will vastly expand the spatial coverage of such products,expected from 2021 on. Our general strategy is to estimate global surface water storage changes (1V) in large lakes and reservoirs using a combination of paired water surface elevation (WSE) and water surface area (WSA)extent products. Specifically, we use data produced by multiple satellite altimetry missions (TOPEX/Poseidon,Jason-1, Jason-2, Jason-3, and Envisat) from 1992 on, with surface extent estimated from Terra/Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) from 2000 on. We leverage relationships between elevation and surface area (i.e., hypsometry) to produce estimates of 1 Veven during periods when either of the variables was not available. This approach is successful provided that there are strong relationships between the two variables during an overlapping period. Our target is to produce time series of1Vas well as of WSE and WSA fora set of 347 lakes and reservoirs globally for the 1992–2018 period. The data sets presented and their respective algorithm theoretical basis documents are publicly available and distributed via the Physical Oceanography Dis-tributed Active Archive Center (PO DAAC; https://podaac.jpl.nasa.gov/, last access: 13 May 2020) of NASA’sJet Propulsion Laboratory. Specifically, the WSE data set is available at https://doi.org/10.5067/UCLRS-GREV2(Birkett et al., 2019), the WSA data set is available at https://doi.org/10.5067/UCLRS-AREV2 (Khandelwal and Kumar, 2019), and the 1V data set is available at https://doi.org/10.5067/UCLRS-STOV2 (Tortini et al., 2019).The records we describe represent the most complete global surface water time series available from the launch of TOPEX/Poseidon in 1992 (beginning of the satellite altimetry era) to the near present. The production of long-term, consistent, and calibrated records of surface water cycle variables such as in the data set presented here is of fundamental importance to baseline future SWOT products

Riccardo Tortini↗
NASA NTRS1991

Backscattering by nonspherical particles - A review of methods and suggested new approaches

Scattering of electromagnetic radiation near the backward direction is more sensitive to particle shape than scattering near the forward direction. Mie theory is therefore of dubious applicability to predicting backscattering by atmospheric particles known to be irregular or to inverting measurements on such particles. An irregular particle is one with an uncertain shape. In the face of uncertainty one must adopt a statistical approach in which scattering properties of ensembles are determined. To obtain ensemble averages, a basis is needed for averaging over a set of electromagnetic microstates. Ensemble averages based on the Rayleigh theory for small ellipsoids and on the T matrix method for spheroids agree better with measurements than Mie theory does. The coupled-dipole method also provides a basis for ensemble averaging. This method also leads to a simple physical interpretation of why backscattering is so sensitive to particle shape and can be used to calculate scattering by one- and two-dimensional analogs to three-dimensional irregular particles.

Bohren, Craig F.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Intelligent process mapping through systematic improvement of heuristics

The present system for automatic learning/evaluation of novel heuristic methods applicable to the mapping of communication-process sets on a computer network has its basis in the testing of a population of competing heuristic methods within a fixed time-constraint. The TEACHER 4.1 prototype learning system implemented or learning new postgame analysis heuristic methods iteratively generates and refines the mappings of a set of communicating processes on a computer network. A systematic exploration of the space of possible heuristic methods is shown to promise significant improvement.

Ieumwananonthachai, Arthur↗
NASA NTRS1975

Image 100 procedures manual development: Applications system library definition and Image 100 software definition

An outline for an Image 100 procedures manual for Earth Resources Program image analysis was developed which sets forth guidelines that provide a basis for the preparation and updating of an Image 100 Procedures Manual. The scope of the outline was limited to definition of general features of a procedures manual together with special features of an interactive system. Computer programs were identified which should be implemented as part of an applications oriented library for the system.

Guseman, L. F., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Implementation on a nonlinear concrete cracking algorithm in NASTRAN

A computer code for the analysis of reinforced concrete structures was developed using NASTRAN as a basis. Nonlinear iteration procedures were developed for obtaining solutions with a wide variety of loading sequences. A direct access file system was used to save results at each load step to restart within the solution module for further analysis. A multi-nested looping capability was implemented to control the iterations and change the loads. The basis for the analysis is a set of mutli-layer plate elements which allow local definition of materials and cracking properties.

Herting, D. N.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Laboratory test methods for evaluating the fire response of aerospace materials

The test methods which were developed or evaluated were intended to serve as means of comparing materials on the basis of specific responses under specific sets of test conditions, using apparatus, facilities, and personnel that would be within the capabilities of perhaps the majority of laboratories. Priority was given to test methods which showed promise of addressing the pre-ignition state of a potential fire. These test methods were intended to indicate which materials may present more hazard than others under specific test conditions. These test methods are discussed and arranged according to the stage of a fire to which they are most relevant. Some observations of material performance which resulted from this work are also discussed.

Hilado, C. J.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Variations of solar irradiance

The active cavity radiometer experiment on the Solar Maximum Mission is providing sensitive measurements of time variations of the total solar irradiance with greater accuracy and precision than previously achieved. The mean 1 AU irradiance for the first 45 days' operation is 1368.64 W/sq m with an absolute uncertainty of less than + or 0.5%. Variations about this mean have been observed on time scales of hours to days with amplitudes up to + or - 0.04%, resolved with a statistical uncertainty as low as 0.001%. Variations within a single orbit with amplitudes as large as + or - 0.5% have been resolved with 0.005% or smaller statistical uncertainty. Although these variations do not display a systematic relationship to conventional solar activity indices over the period, correlative behavior cannot be ruled out on the basis of the present limited data set.

Willson, R. C.↗
NASA NTRS1983

The center for astrophysics redshift survey

Major advances in the art of redshift measurements have improved the obtainable accuracy to better than 30 km/s. It is now posible to obtain a redshift for almost any galaxy brighter than 15th magnitude on a 60-inch telescope in 60 minutes or less. These advances were utilized in an observation program initiated in the spring of 1978. This program represents a survey of radial velocities for all 2400 galaxies brighter than 14.5 at high galactic latitude in the northern hemisphere. The obtained data set has been employed as a basis for a derivation of a good measure of the local mean mass density. In addition, information was obtained concerning the overdensity and the dynamics of the local supercluster, and an analysis was conducted of the dynamics of groups and clusters of galaxies within the sample volume.

Davis, M.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Precompaction irradiation effects: Particles from an early active sun?

Two recent studies have shown that solar flare irradiated grains from Murchison and Kapoeta have excess spallogenic Ne-21 compared to unirradiated grains, indicating large precompaction particle irradiation effects. The quantity of cosmogenic neon in these grains presents serious difficulties for either galactic cosmic ray or normal solar flare sources. In the first study it was suggested that the effect might be the result of exposure to an early active sun. The more recent experiment both confirms the earlier results and provides constraints on the characteristic energy spectrum on the irradiation. The first results were obtained from Murchison olivines and Kapoeta pyroxenes by mass spectrometric analysis of sets of grains selected on the basis of the presence or absence of solar flare particle tracks. In the second work plagioclase feldspar grains from Kapoeta were studied.

Caffee, M. W.↗
NASA NTRS1989

The mixing ratio of the stratospheric hydroxyl radical from far infrared emission measurements

Far infrared emission spectra of the stratosphere, measured with a 0.0033/cm resolution Fourier transform spectrometer using a limb scanning method, are analyzed in order to retrieve the vertical distribution of the hydroxyl radical (OH). The observations cover a time interval between 1300 and 2300 hours, showing a pronounced time decrease of the OH signals. Vertical profiles are obtained for the afternoon and sunset periods. An upper limit is derived from the small signals present in the night measurements. Three different methods of analysis have been applied to the same data set, and the results provided the basis for a critical discussion of the error sources. The results are compared with theoretical predictions and with the results of other experiments.

Carli, Bruno↗