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At least 505 records · Page 28
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2014

Impact of sedimentary provenance and weathering on arsenic distribution in aquifers of the Datong basin, China: Constraints from elemental geochemistry

Arsenic (As)-contaminated aquifer sediments from Datong basin, China have been analyzed to infer the provenance and depositional environment related to As distribution in the aquifer sediments. The As content in the sediments ranged from 2.45 to 27.38 mg/kg with an average value of 9.54 mg/kg, which is comparable to the average value in modern unconsolidated sediments. However, minor variation in As concentration with depth has been observed in the core. There was a significant correlation between Fe, and Al and As, which was attributed to the adsorption or co-precipitation of As onto/with Fe oxides/hydroxides and/or Fe-coated clay minerals. Post-Archean Australian Shale (PAAS)-normalized REEs patterns of sediment samples along the borehole were constant, and the sediments had a notably restricted range of La-N/Yb-N ratios from 0.7 to 1.0. These results suggested that the provenance of the Datong basin remained similar throughout the whole depositional period. The analysis of major geochemical compositions confirmed that all core sediments were from the same sedimentary source and experienced significant sedimentary recycling. The co-variation of As, V/Al, Ni/Al and chemical index of alteration (CIA) values in the sediments along the borehole suggested that As distribution in the sediments was primarily controlled by weathering processes. The calculated CIA values of the sediments along the borehole indicate that a relative strong chemical weathering occurred during the deposition of sediments at depths of similar to 35 to 88 m, which was corresponding to the depth at which high As groundwater was observed at the site. Strong chemical weathering favored the deposition of Fe-bearing minerals including poorly crystalline and crystalline Fe oxide mineral phases and concomitant co-precipitation of As with these minerals in the sediments. Subsequent reductive dissolution of As-bearing poorly crystalline and crystalline Fe oxides would result in the enrichment of As in groundwater. In general, the chemical weathering during the deposition of the sediments governed the co-accumulation of Fe oxides and As in the aquifer sediments. And then, the reductive dissolution of Fe oxides/hydroxides is the mechanism of As enrichment in the groundwater in the Datong basin

Xie, Xianjun↗
DOE OSTI2019

Rare earth elements of fly ash from Wyoming's Powder River Basin coal

The advancement and increasing interests in green energy production and environmental protection technologies have spurred the demand for rare earth elements. On the other hand, the U.S. has to rely 100% on import of these materials as the industry was crashed because of the environmental issues associated with mining and processing, and more importantly lack competitiveness. As rare earth elements have many applications in defense and national security sectors, some of the elements were listed as strategic materials or critical materials because of the uncertainties in supply and prices. Therefore, it has become imperative in searching for alternative resources for supplying rare earth elements including unconventional resources. With the strong incentive, coal fly ash is identified as one of the candidates among them. In this study, we present rare earth element data for the 42 ash samples (all derived from Powder River Basin coal) that we collected from seven states (UT, WY, IO, WI, ND, CO, and MI) representing 158 million tons of fly ash. Overall, the results indicate scattered distributions of rare earth elements with concentration ranging from 156 to 590 ppm although all the ash samples originated from the same coal basin (Powder River Basin). The rare earth element resource in these ashes is estimated between 74000 and 106000 t. The ash samples were also characterized by elemental analysis, XRD, SEM-EDS and BET surface area. The characterizations of the ashes were discussed as they might have implications in the subsequent rare earth element extraction processes. In summary, fly ash may represent a potential resource for rare earth element production.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2022

Illitization in the Mt. Simon Sandstone, Illinois Basin, USA: Implications for carbon dioxide storage

Clay mineral cementation is one of the most important controls on sandstone reservoir properties. Here, in this paper, the diagenetic history of the Mt. Simon reservoir complex is studied to reveal the origin, timing, and controls of illitization. Samples of sandstone and shale from Mt. Simon reservoir complex were acquired from the Illinois Basin–Decatur Project (IBDP), a CO 2 storage demonstration project in the central Illinois Basin. Petrographic, SEM, TEM, XRD analyses and K/Ar age dating were completed to identify the major detrital and diagenetic components of the samples and reveal illite to be the major clay component in all samples. Illitic clay coatings in the lower Mt. Simon reservoir are identified as a major control on reservoir properties by inhibiting major precipitation of authigenic quartz during illitization, resulting in highly permeable sandstone, essential for CO 2 storage. The coating box-work morphology and mineralogy are indicative of a detrital smectite origin with subsequent illite growth associated with feldspar dissolution and kaolinite alteration. The mineralogy of bulk material and separate grain size fractions (2–0.6 μm; 0.6–0.2 μm; < 0.2 μm) with illite polytypes 2M 1 , 1M, and 1M d were quantified and age dated via 40 K- 40 Ar methods. The shales or reservoir seals contain the highest proportions of detrital illite with illite in the lower Mt. Simon Sandstone reservoir identified as solely diagenetic. Two major events of illitization are identified throughout the Mt. Simon with more porous reservoir rock exhibiting the older event from approximately 360 to 315 Ma and tighter sandstone units with reservoir properties too low to be considered reservoir exhibiting illite dates from 250 to 220 Ma. This partitioning of illitization is attributed to varied mineralogy controlled by depositional changes and evolution of the greater basin.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning and shallow groundwater chemistry to identify geothermal prospects in the Great Basin, USA

This study discovers various geothermal prospects in the Great Basin, USA based on shallow groundwater chemical (geochemical) data. The geochemical data are expected to include hidden (latent) information that is a proxy for geothermal prospectivity. We processed the sparse geochemical data in the Great Basin at 14,341 locations including 18 attributes. Next, a non-negative matrix factorization with customized k-means clustering is applied to the geochemical data matrix that automatically finds three hidden geothermal signatures representing modestly, moderately, and highly confident geothermal prospects. The algorithm also evaluated the probability of occurrence of these types of resources through the studied region. There is a consistency between regional geothermal prospectivity as estimated by our ML methodology and the traditional play fairway analysis conducted over a portion of the study area. We also identify the dominant data attributes associated with each signature. Finally, our ML analyses allow us to reconstruct attributes from sparse into continuous over the study domain. The predicted continuous attributes can be used for future detailed geothermal explorations in the Great Basin.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impact of Acid–Base Stimulation Sequence on Mineral Stability for Tight/Impermeable Unconventional Carbonate-Rich Rocks: A Delaware Basin Case Study

We report mineral precipitation due to reactions with injected fluids during unconventional fracture stimulation is a well-recognized problem. The goal of this study is to evaluate secondary mineral precipitation and permeability attenuation under chemical injection scenarios specific to the Delaware basin. Whole cylindrical cores (2.54 cm diameter and 2.54 cm height) and ground shale (150–250 μm) from the carbonate-rich Bone Spring Formation, Delaware Basin TX (Leonardian), were reacted at 80 °C and 85 bar using a hydraulic fracturing fluid (HFF) recipe and an injection sequence typical of the Delaware Basin. The reacted shales and solutions were analyzed using a variety of laboratory- and synchrotron-based techniques to characterize both the chemical and spatial distributions of secondary mineral precipitation and identify changes in permeability and mineralogy. This carbonate-rich shale (>84% calcite) rapidly neutralized the acidic HFF. Synchrotron-based X-ray fluorescence mapping coupled with X-ray absorption spectroscopy (both bulk and micro) showed that most of the iron was in an oxidized form prior to exposure to HFF and that almost all iron(II) became fully oxidized after the reaction. Scanning electron microscopy images of the ground shale samples primarily identified iron(oxyhydr)oxide microcrystals on grain surfaces. A few small isolated iron-rich areas also contained sulfur, suggesting that some pyrite was preserved when isolated within a calcite crystal but that most was oxidized. The rapid neutralization of the acid spearhead in these carbonate-rich samples demonstrates that the acid spearhead is useful for initiating fractures in extremely calcite-rich rocks but does little to enhance rock permeability. This suggests that the impact of the acid spearhead is significantly smaller for carbonate-rich shales compared to clay-rich shales, which has broad implications for acidizing in carbonate-rich shale formations and iron transformations within these shales.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Carbon Dioxide Fluxes to the Atmosphere From Waters Within Flooded Forests in the Amazon Basin

Aquatic habitats in the lowland Amazon emit large quantities of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). However, information on CO 2 fluxes from seasonally flooded forests that constitute 80% of the surface area of aquatic environments in the lowland Amazon basin is sparse. We provide the first multi-year measurements of CO 2 exchanges within flooded forests of the central Amazon basin. Our approach combines measurement of dissolved CO 2 concentrations and fluxes between the water and atmosphere and ecological data. Although the rates of CO 2 emission by flooded forests are lower than other aquatic habitats, such as open waters in rivers and lakes, the combination of high CO 2 concentrations and a large area results in an appreciable regional out gassing of carbon dioxide from flooded forests. These fluxes can represent about half of the net primary production of flooded forests in the central Amazon basin.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing the Impacts of Recent Crop Expansion on Water Quality in the Missouri River Basin Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool

The Missouri River Basin (MORB) has experienced a resurgence of grassland conversion to crop production, which raised concerns on water quality. We applied the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to address how this conversion would impact water quality. We designed three crop production scenarios representing conversion of grassland to: (a) continuous corn; (b) corn/soybean rotation; and (c) corn/wheat rotation to assess the impact. The SWAT model results showed: (a) the lower MORB produced high total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) load before conversion (baseline) due mainly to high precipitation and high agricultural activity; (b) the greatest percentage increases of TN and TP occurred in the North and South Dakotas, coinciding with the highest amount of grassland conversion to cropland; and (c) grassland conversion to continuous corn resulted in the greatest increase in TN and TP loads, followed by conversion to corn/soybean and then conversion to corn/wheat. Although the greatest percentage increases of TN and TP occurred in the North and South Dakotas, these areas still contributed relatively low TN and TP to total basin loads after conversion. However, watersheds, predominantly in the lower MORB continued to be “hotspots” that contributed the greatest amounts of TN and TP to the total basin loads—driven by a combination of grassland conversion, high precipitation, and loading from pre-existing cropland. At the watershed outlet, the TN and TP loads were increased by 6.4% (13,800 t/yr) and 8.7% (3,400 t/yr), respectively, during the 2008–2016 period for the conversion to continuous corn scenario.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Shallow Aseismic Slip in the Delaware Basin Determined by Sentinel-1 InSAR

The Delaware Basin, Texas is currently a hot-spot of induced seismicity and ground deformation due to fluid extraction and injection associated with horizontal drilling techniques; however, the driving mechanism behind the seismicity and deformation remains under debate. Here, using vertical and east-west horizontal surface deformation measurements derived from Sentinel-1 interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR), we show that the subsurface responds differently to oil and gas activity in the northern and southeastern portions of the basin. In the north, where there is little seismicity, deformation patterns display long-wavelengths and equidimensional patterns. In contrast, the southeast region hosts most of the seismicity and displays spatial deformation patterns with narrow linear features that strike parallel to the maximum principal horizontal stress and to trends in seismicity, suggesting movement along normal faults. We model a linear deformation feature using edge dislocations and show that the InSAR observations can be reproduced by slip on normal faults contained within the Delaware Mountain Group (DMG), the formation that hosts local wastewater injection and the majority of earthquakes. Our model consists of three parallel, high-angle normal faults, with two dipping toward one another in a graben structure. Slip magnitudes reach up to 25 cm and are spatially correlated with injection wells. Measured seismicity can only explain ~2% of the fault motion predicted by our fault model, suggesting that slip leading to the deformation is predominantly aseismic. We conclude that seismic and aseismic fault motion in the southeastern Delaware Basin is likely driven by wastewater injection near critically-stressed normal faults within the DMG.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Spatial Microbial Respiration Variations in the Hyporheic Zones Within the Columbia River Basin

Abstract While the hyporheic zone (HZ) accounts for a significant portion of whole stream CO 2 concentrations, HZ respiration modeling studies are lacking in quantifying their contributions to the total CO 2 at large watershed/basin scales. Quantifying the contribution of anaerobic respiration is also underappreciated. This study used a carbon‐nitrogen‐coupled river corridor model to quantify HZ aerobic and anaerobic respiration and determined the key factors controlling their spatial variability within the Columbia River Basin (CRB). The modeled respiration patterns showed high spatial variability. Among the nine sub‐basins composing the CRB, the Lower Columbia and the Willamette, which receive higher precipitation, had higher respiration. Medium‐sized rivers (fourth to sixth orders) produced the highest aerobic and anaerobic respiration among reaches of different sizes. At the basin scale, aerobic respiration is dominant, representing approximately 98.7% of the total respiration across the CRB. While most of the reaches were dominant with aerobic respiration, reaches in agricultural land showed a relatively higher anaerobic respiration (18%) ratio. A variable importance analysis showed that hyporheic exchange flux controlled most of the spatial variability of HZ respiration, dominating over other physical variables such as residence time, stream dissolved organic carbon (DOC), nitrate, and dissolved oxygen (DO). The influence of substrate concentration (DOC and DO) is larger in modeling anaerobic respiration than aerobic respiration. Future efforts will focus on improving the estimation of the HZ exchange flux and the implementation of spatially explicit parameterizations for the reactions of interest to reduce model uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Late Paleozoic Evolution of the Anadarko Basin: Implications for Laurentian Tectonics and the Assembly of Pangea

Abstract Interplay between marginal and intraplate late Paleozoic tectonics in southeastern Laurentia is a subject of debate. In southern Laurentia, intraplate deformation has been attributed to combinations of compressive forces from orogenic belts in the west, southwest, and southeast. While left‐lateral transpression is generally an accepted mechanism for formation of uplifts in the Southern Oklahoma Aulacogen (SOA), to date no studies have explained the driving mechanisms of these kinematics. Here, we analyze the Southern Oklahoma Transpressional System (SOTS), a ∼500 km long ∼50 km wide fault zone that extends from the southeastern Laurentian margin into the plate interior along Cambrian lithospheric weaknesses inherited from the SOA. We use a compilation of published studies to present detailed, time‐integrated sedimentary thickness maps of SOTS‐related basins. We combine these maps with a new interpretation of three 2D seismic reflection lines to constrain timing and kinematics of all major late Paleozoic SOTS fault zones. We show that the SOTS kinematics evolved from contraction to left‐lateral strike‐slip during Mississippian‐Pennsylvanian time. Tectonic activity and fault kinematics in the SOTS are explained by a model in which a remnant ocean basin closed diachronously from northeast to southwest along the Southern Appalachian and Ouachita‐Marathon orogens. Left‐lateral transpression during diachronous closure of the Rheic oceanic basin along the Ouachita‐Marathon margin is related to rotation of the stress field due to changes in slab‐pull and eastward drift of Laurentia toward Gondwana. We speculate that the SOTS acted in part as a STEP (subduction‐transfer edge propagator) fault that followed the pre‐existing SOA.

Hobbs, Noah. F.↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Role of Snowmelt Temporal Pattern in Flood Estimation for a Small Snow‐Dominated Basin in the Sierra Nevada

Abstract Prior research confirmed the substantial bias from using precipitation‐based intensity‐duration‐frequency curves (PREC‐IDF) in design flood estimates and proposed next‐generation IDF curves (NG‐IDF) that represent both rainfall and snow processes in runoff generation. This study improves the NG‐IDF technology for a snow‐dominated test basin in the Sierra Nevada. A well‐validated physics‐based hydrologic model, the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM), is used to continuously simulate snowmelt and streamflow that are used as benchmark data sets to systematically assess the NG‐IDF technology. We find that, for the studied small snow‐dominated basin, the use of standard rainfall hyetographs in the NG‐IDF technology leads to substantial underestimation of design floods. Thus, we propose probabilistic hyetographs that can represent unique patterns of events with different underlying mechanisms. For the test basin where flooding events are generated entirely by snowmelt, we develop a hyetograph that characterizes snowmelt temporal patterns, which greatly improves the performance of NG‐IDF technology in design flood estimates. In contrast to the standard rainfall hyetographs characterized by a symmetrically peaked, bell‐shaped curve, the snowmelt hyetograph displays a more rapid rise (i.e., greater intensity) and a distinct diurnal pattern influenced by solar energy input. The results also show that the uncertainty of hyetography plays an important role in design flood estimation and can have important implications for future flood projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Examining Daily Temporal Characteristics of Oil and Gas Methane Emissions in the Delaware Basin Using Continuous Tower Observations

Top-down studies have found consistent underestimations in the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) methane emissions inventory from the oil and gas (O&G) sector. Many of these studies use observations that bias toward hours when worktime activity occurs. In this study, we analyze over 2 years of methane measurements from a tower network in the Delaware basin to analyze hourly temporal emission patterns. Inversion results suggest a range in emissions from 137 Mg/hr at night to 197 Mg/hr during the day, present during both weekdays and weekends. If these results are applicable to other basins, daytime-influenced methodologies may overestimate daily emission rates by up to 27%. This bias does not reconcile the more than 200% difference between the EPA inventory and top-down estimates in the Delaware basin. This study demonstrates how continuous measurement networks can be combined with detailed activity data to improve bottom-up inventories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Fungal spores as a source of sodium salt particles in the Amazon basin

Salt containing aerosols play important roles in atmospheric chemistry and cloud formation, hence understanding and observationally constraining their sources are vital. In the Amazon basin, particles containing mixed sodium salts are routinely attributed to marine aerosols transported from the Atlantic Ocean. Here, using detailed chemical imaging analysis, we show that fungal spores emitted by the forest biosphere contribute to at least 30% (by number) of sodium salt particles observed in the central Amazon basin. Hydration experiments, using environmental microreactors complemented with micro32 spectroscopy analysis, we show that sodium-containing fungal spores have higher hygroscopic growth than sodium-free spores and their sodium content determines their growth factors. Modeling results suggest that fungal spores account for ~62% of the total sodium mass during the wet season and that their fractional contribution increases during nighttime. In sharp contrast with the assumption that sodium-containing aerosols arise solely from marine sources, our results suggest that locally-emitted fungal spores containing sodium contribute substantially to the number and mass of coarse particles containing Na and Cl (similar to sea salt). Furthermore, their role in cloud formation and contribution to salt cycles and the terrestrial ecosystem in the Amazon basin warrant further consideration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using Sentinel-1 and GRACE satellite data to monitor the hydrological variations within the Tulare Basin, California

Abstract Subsidence induced by groundwater depletion is a grave problem in many regions around the world, leading to a permanent loss of groundwater storage within an aquifer and even producing structural damage at the Earth’s surface. California’s Tulare Basin is no exception, experiencing about a meter of subsidence between 2015 and 2020. However, understanding the relationship between changes in groundwater volumes and ground deformation has proven difficult. We employ surface displacement measurements from Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) and gravimetric estimates of terrestrial water storage from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite pair to characterize the hydrological dynamics within the Tulare basin. The removal of the long-term aquifer compaction from the InSAR time series reveals coherent short-term variations that correlate with hydrological features. For example, in the winter of 2018–2019 uplift is observed at the confluence of several rivers and streams that drain into the southeastern edge of the basin. These observations, combined with estimates of mass changes obtained from the orbiting GRACE satellites, form the basis for imaging the monthly spatial variations in water volumes. This approach facilitates the quick and effective synthesis of InSAR and gravimetric datasets and will aid efforts to improve our understanding and management of groundwater resources around the world.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Bifurcation characteristics and safe basin of MSMA microgripper subjected to stochastic excitation

A kind of magnetic shape memory alloy (MSMA) microgripper is proposed in this paper, and its nonlinear dynamic characteristics are studied when the stochastic perturbation is considered. Nonlinear differential items are introduced to explain the hysteretic phenomena of MSMA, and the constructive relationships among strain, stress, and magnetic field intensity are obtained by the partial least-square regression method. The nonlinear dynamic model of a MSMA microgripper subjected to in-plane stochastic excitation is developed. The stationary probability density function of the system’s response is obtained, the transition sets of the system are determined, and the conditions of stochastic bifurcation are obtained. The homoclinic and heteroclinic orbits of the system are given, and the boundary of the system’s safe basin is obtained by stochastic Melnikov integral method. The numerical and experimental results show that the system’s motion depends on its parameters, and stochastic Hopf bifurcation appears in the variation of the parameters; the area of the safe basin decreases with the increase of the stochastic excitation, and the boundary of the safe basin becomes fractal. The results of this paper are helpful for the application of MSMA microgripper in engineering fields.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Widespread deep seismicity in the Delaware Basin, Texas, is mainly driven by shallow wastewater injection

Significance The Delaware Basin, western Texas, has experienced a surge in the number of earthquakes. We investigate basin-wide earthquake, hydrogeologic, industrial, and geodetic data spanning 1993–2020 to identify the reasons for the increase. We use these data and models to quantify the stress changes from wastewater injection and hydrocarbon extraction. We demonstrate that the basin-wide seismicity is dominated by the stresses caused by shallow injection that are transmitted vertically by deforming the underlying crust. We analyze both injection and production data to understand how subsurface properties control earthquake locations and timings. We suggest that injecting wastewater into porous formations will minimize seismic hazard. We establish a framework explaining why earthquakes sometimes occur and sometimes do not occur within human activity-impacted areas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Status of Redband Trout in the Upper Snake River Basin of Idaho

Abstract Redband Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss gairdneri are likely the most abundant and most widely distributed native salmonid in the Columbia River basin, yet their current distribution and abundance across the landscape have not been well documented. We sampled 1,032 randomly distributed stream sites (usually 100 m in length) across more than 60,000 km of stream network to assess Redband Trout occupancy, abundance, and genetic purity in the upper Snake River basin of Idaho. Study locations were more often in dry desert subbasins (49% of sites) than in montane subbasins (20%), and 25% of the dry “stream sites” had no discernible stream channel whatsoever, indicating a lack of flowing water for perhaps millennia. Redband Trout were estimated to occupy 13,485 km of stream (22% of the total) and were captured more often (389 sites) than Brook Trout Salvelinus fontinalis (128 sites), Bull Trout Salvelinus confluentus (37 sites), or Brown Trout Salmo trutta (16 sites). Redband Trout were also the most abundant species of trout, with an approximate abundance of 3,449,000 ± 402,000 (90% confidence interval) of all sizes, followed by Brook Trout (1,501,000 ± 330,000), Bull Trout (159,000 ± 118,000), and Brown Trout (43,000 ± 25,000). Approximately 848,000 ± 128,000 Redband Trout were adults. From 1913 (the earliest year of record) to 2001, roughly 43 million hatchery Rainbow Trout were stocked in streams in the study area, 17.5 million of which were of catchable size (i.e., ≥200 mm total length); since 2001, all catchable trout have been sterilized prior to stocking. Genetic results from 61 study sites suggest that hybridization with hatchery Rainbow Trout is more likely to occur in streams that were directly stocked with catchable trout from 1913 to 2001. Applying these results across the landscape, we estimated that Redband Trout likely remain pure in about 68% of the streams occupied in the upper Snake River basin. Received November 13, 2012; accepted January 9, 2014

Meyer, Kevin A.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Long-term basin-scale hydropower expansion under alternative scenarios in a global multisector model

Abstract Hydropower is an important source of renewable, low-carbon energy. Global and regional energy systems, including hydropower, may evolve in a variety of ways under different scenarios. Representation of hydropower in global multisector models is often simplified at the country or regional level. Some models assume a fixed hydropower supply, which is not affected by economic drivers or competition with other electricity generation sources. Here, we implement an endogenous model of hydropower expansion in the Global Change Analysis Model, including a representation of hydropower potential at the river basin level to project future hydropower production across river basins and explore hydropower’s role in evolving energy systems both regionally and globally, under alternative scenarios. Each scenario utilizes the new endogenous hydropower implementation but makes different assumptions about future low-carbon transitions, technology costs, and energy demand. Our study suggests there is ample potential for hydropower to expand in the future to help meet growing demand for electricity driven by socioeconomic growth, electrification of end-use sectors, or other factors. However, hydropower expansion will be constrained by resource availability, resource location, and cost in ways that limit its growth relative to other technologies. As a result, all scenarios show a generally decreasing share of hydroelectricity over total electricity generation at the global level. Hydropower expansion varies across regions, and across basins within regions, due to differences in resource potential, cost, current utilization, and other factors. In sum, our scenarios entail hydropower generation growth between 36% and 119% in 2050, compared to 2015, globally.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗