SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “automated reasoning”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 505 records · Page 28

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS1999

Monitoring and Modeling Astronaut Occupational Radiation Exposures in Space: Recent Advances

In 1982 astronauts were declared to be radiation workers by OSHA, and as such were subject to the rules and regulations applied to that group. NASA was already aware that space radiation was a hazard to crewmembers and had been studying and monitoring astronaut doses since 1962 at the Johnson Space Center. It was quickly realized NASA would not be able to accomplish all of its goals if the astronauts were subject to the ground based radiation worker limits, and thus received a waiver from OSHA to establish independent limits. As part of the stipulation attached to setting new limits, OSHA included a requirement to perform preflight dose projections for each crew and inform them of the associated risks. Additional requirements included measuring doses from various sources during the flight, making every effort to prevent a crewmember from exceeding the new limits, and keeping all exposures As Low As Reasonably Achievable (a.k.a. ALARA - a common health physics principle). The assembly of the International Space Station (ISS) and its initial manned operations will coincide with the 4-5 year period of high space weather activity at the next maximum in the solar cycle. For the first time in NASA's manned program, US astronauts will be in orbit continuously throughout a solar maximum period. During this period, crews are at risk of significantly increased radiation exposures due to solar particle events and trapped electron belt enhancements following geomagnetic storms. The problem of protecting crews is compounded by the difficulty of providing continuous real-time monitoring over a period of a decade in an era of tightly constrained budgets. In order to prepare for ISS radiological support needs, the NASA Space Radiation Analysis Group and the NOAA Space Environment Center have undertaken a multiyear effort to improve and automate ground-based space weather monitoring systems and real-time radiation analysis tools. These improvements include a coupled, automated space weather monitoring and alarm system--SPE exposure analysis system, an advanced space weather data distribution and display system, and a high-fidelity space weather simulation system. In addition, significant new real-time space weather data sets, which will enhance the forecasting and now-casting of near-Earth space environment conditions, are being made available through unique NASA-NOAA-USAF collaborations. These new data sets include coronal mass ejection monitoring by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and in-situ plasma and particle monitoring at the L1 libration point by the Solar Wind Monitor (SWIM) and Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft. Advanced real-time radiation monitoring data from charged particle telescopes and tissue equivalent proportional counters will also be available to assist crew and flight controllers in monitoring the external and intravehicular radiation environment.

Weyland, Mark↗

NASA NTRS2018

Seeing Double: ASASSN-18bt Exhibits a Two-component Rise in the Early-time K2 Light Curve

On 2018 February 4.41, the All-Sky Automated Survey for SuperNovae (ASAS-SN) discovered ASASSN-18bt in the K2 Campaign 16 field. With a redshift of z=0.01098 and a peak apparent magnitude of B(max)=14.31, ASASSN-18bt is the nearest and brightest SNe Ia yet observed by the Kepler spacecraft. Here we present the discovery of ASASSN-18bt, the K2 light curve, and prediscovery data from ASAS-SN and the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System. The K2 early-time light curve has an unprecedented 30-minute cadence and photometric precision for an SN Ia light curve, and it unambiguously shows a ∼4 day nearly linear phase followed by a steeper rise. Thus, ASASSN-18bt joins a growing list of SNe Ia whose early light curves are not well described by a single power law. We show that a double-power-law model fits the data reasonably well, hinting that two physical processes must be responsible for the observed rise. However, we find that current models of the interaction with a nondegenerate companion predict an abrupt rise and cannot adequately explain the initial, slower linear phase. Instead, we find that existing published models with shallow 56Ni are able to span the observed behavior and, with tuning, may be able to reproduce the ASASSN-18bt light curve. Regardless, more theoretical work is needed to satisfactorily model this and other early-time SNe Ia light curves. Finally, we use Swift X-ray nondetections to constrain the presence of circumstellar material (CSM) at much larger distances and lower densities than possible with the optical light curve. For a constant-density CSM, these nondetections constrain ρ<4.5×10(exp 5)per cu.cm at a radius of 4×10(exp 15) cm from the progenitor star. Assuming a wind-like environment, we place mass loss limits of M˙ < 8 x 10(exp -6) M(ʘ)per yr for v(w)=100 km/s, ruling out some symbiotic progenitor systems. This work highlights the power of well-sampled early-time data and the need for immediate multiband, high-cadence follow-up for progress in understanding SNe Ia.

B. J. Shappee↗

DOE OSTI2023

FY23 Progress Report on Viscosity and Thermal Conductivity Measurements of Molten Salts

As presented in this report, thermal conductivity and viscosity measurements were performed on key chloride pseudo-binary molten salt systems of relevance to molten salt reactor developers. Thermal conductivity measurements were conducted with a variable gap technique, in which a known heat flux is driven across a molten salt specimen and the temperature difference is measured, allowing calculation of the thermal conductivity. This is achieved by establishing a small gap between the bottom of a cylindrical inner containment, which houses electrical heating elements, and an outer containment, which houses cooling channels; the gap size can be varied by compression of a formed bellows. A new calibration scheme was developed herein, involving a correction factor to the heat flux based on He measurements at various temperatures. Furthermore, the data processing methodology was improved to minimize the impact of radiative heat transfer in the calculation of salt specimen thermal conductivity from the temperature difference measurements. Viscosity measurements were conducted with a rolling ball viscometer, in which a ball rolls some known distance in an angled tubular crucible, and the terminal velocity can be used to calculate the viscosity of the salt. The measurement can be performed in a quartz crucible, with which a standard camera can be used to track the ball, or in a metal crucible, with which x-ray radiography is required to track the ball. A new custom x-ray system was made and dedicated to the rolling ball viscometer to enable high throughput automated measurements with salts which require containment with metal. Both systems have been integrated with a ventilation stack which allows for off-gassing of radioactive material, enabling future measurements with U-bearing salts. The thermal conductivity measurements performed herein were with NaCl-KCl (44 mol% NaCl). This salt system was measured in the previous fiscal year, however the thermal conductivity values obtained were comparatively low, and so the system was remeasured with the aforementioned calibration scheme and improved post-processing techniques. The newly obtained thermal conductivity values for NaCl-KCl (44 mol% NaCl) indicate good agreement with kinetic theory and ab-initio models (within 5–10 %). The viscosity measurements performed herein were with three different compositions of NaCl-KCl: 75, 50, and 25 mol% NaCl; a new calibration scheme was applied to account for variable flow effects in the laminar regime. The results show reasonable agreement with literature (5–20 %, depending on the temperature, composition, and study); however, literature values are likely higher than true values based on pure end-member measurements performed in the comparative studies. The measurements conducted herein do show a trend such that viscosity increases with increasing NaCl concentration, which agrees well with one of two comparative studies. In general, the measurements conducted herein gives confidence in the capability to use these systems to accurately measure thermal conductivity and viscosity of actinide-bearing salts within the next fiscal year.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS2000

Intelligent Tutoring Systems for Procedural Task Training of Remote Payload Operations at NASA

Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITSs) encode and apply the subject matter and teaching expertise of experienced instructors to provide students with individualized instruction automatically. ITSs complement training simulators by providing automated instruction when it is not economical or feasible to dedicate an instructor to each student during training simulations. Despite their proven training effectiveness and favorable operating cost, however, relatively few ITSs are in use. This is largely because it is usually costly and difficult to encode the task knowledge used by the ITS to evaluate the student's actions and assess the student's performance. Procedural tasks are tasks for which there exist procedures, guidelines, and strategies that determine the correct set of steps to be taken within each situation. To lower the cost and difficulty of creating tutoring systems for procedural task training, Stottler Henke Associates, Inc. (SHAI) worked closely with the Operations Training Group at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center to develop the Task Tutor Toolkit (T (exp 3)), a generic tutoring system shell and scenario authoring tool. The Task Tutor Toolkit employs a case-based reasoning approach where the instructor creates a procedure template that specifies the range of student actions that are "correct" within each scenario. Because each procedure template is specific to a single scenario, the system can employ relatively simple reasoning methods to represent a correct set of actions and assess student performance. This simplicity enables a non-programmer to specify task knowledge quickly and easily by via graphical user interface, using a "demonstrate, generalize, and annotate" paradigm, that recognizes the range of possible valid actions and infers principles understood (or misunderstood) by the student when those actions are carried out. The Task Tutor Toolkit was also designed to be modular and general, so that it can be interfaced with a wide range of training simulators and support a variety of training domains. SHAI and NASA applied the Task Tutor Toolkit to create the Remote Payload Operations Tutor (RPOT). RPOT is a specific tutoring system application which lets scientists who are new to space mission operations learn to monitor and control their experiments aboard the International Space Station according to NASA payload regulations, guidelines, and procedures. The RPOT simulator lets students practice these skills by monitoring the telemetry variable values of a simple, hypothetical experiment, sending commands to the experiment, coordinating with NASA personnel via voice communication loops, and submitting and retrieving information via documents and forms. At the end of each scenario, RPOT displays the principles correctly or incorrectly demonstrated by the student, along with explanations and background information. The effectiveness of RPOT and the Task Tutor Toolkit are currently under evaluation at NASA.

Ong, James↗

NASA NTRS2009

Measurement of Satellite Impact Test Fragments for Modeling Orbital Debris

There are over 13,000 pieces of catalogued objects 10cm and larger in orbit around Earth [ODQN, January 2009, p12]. More than 6000 of these objects are fragments from explosions and collisions. As the earth-orbiting object count increases, debris-generating collisions in the future become a statistical inevitability. To aid in understanding this collision risk, the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office has developed computer models that calculate quantity and orbits of debris both currently in orbit and in future epochs. In order to create a reasonable computer model of the orbital debris environment, it is important to understand the mechanics of creation of debris as a result of a collision. The measurement of the physical characteristics of debris resulting from ground-based, hypervelocity impact testing aids in understanding the sizes and shapes of debris produced from potential impacts in orbit. To advance the accuracy of fragment shape/size determination, the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office recently implemented a computerized measurement system. The goal of this system is to improve knowledge and understanding of the relation between commonly used dimensions and overall shape. The technique developed involves scanning a single fragment with a hand-held laser device, measuring its size properties using a sophisticated software tool, and creating a three-dimensional computer model to demonstrate how the object might appear in orbit. This information is used to aid optical techniques in shape determination. This more automated and repeatable method provides higher accuracy in the size and shape determination of debris.

Hill, Nicole M.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Faults Discovery By Using Mined Data

Fault discovery in the complex systems consist of model based reasoning, fault tree analysis, rule based inference methods, and other approaches. Model based reasoning builds models for the systems either by mathematic formulations or by experiment model. Fault Tree Analysis shows the possible causes of a system malfunction by enumerating the suspect components and their respective failure modes that may have induced the problem. The rule based inference build the model based on the expert knowledge. Those models and methods have one thing in common; they have presumed some prior-conditions. Complex systems often use fault trees to analyze the faults. Fault diagnosis, when error occurs, is performed by engineers and analysts performing extensive examination of all data gathered during the mission. International Space Station (ISS) control center operates on the data feedback from the system and decisions are made based on threshold values by using fault trees. Since those decision-making tasks are safety critical and must be done promptly, the engineers who manually analyze the data are facing time challenge. To automate this process, this paper present an approach that uses decision trees to discover fault from data in real-time and capture the contents of fault trees as the initial state of the trees.

Lee, Charles↗

NASA NTRS1994

A real-time prediction of UTC

The reference time scale for all scientific and technologic applications on the Earth, the Universal Coordinated Time (UTC), must be as stable, reliable, and accurate as possible. With this in view the BIPM and before it the BIH, have always calculated and then disseminated UTC with a delay of about 80 days. There are three fundamental reasons for doing this: (1) It takes some weeks for data, gathered from some 200 clocks spread world-wide, to be collected and for errors to be eliminated; (2) changes in clock rates can only be measured with high precision well after the fact; and (3) the measurement noise originating in time links, in particular using Loran-C, is smoothed out only when averaging over an extended period. Until mid-1992, the ultimate stability of UTC was reached at averaging times of about 100 days and corresponded to an Allan deviation sigma(sub y)(tau) of about 1,5x10(exp -14) then compared to the best primary clock in the world, the PTB CS2. For several years now, a predicted UTC has been computed by the USNO through an extrapolation of the values as published in deferred time by the BIPM. This is made available through the USNO Series 4, through the USNO Automated Data Service, and through GPS signals. Due to the instability of UTC, the poor predictability of the available clocks, and the intentional SA degradation of GPS signals, the real-time access to this extrapolated UTC has represented the true deferred-time UTC only to within several hundreds of nanoseconds.

Thomas, Claudine↗

NASA NTRS2018

Design and Development of Responder: a Notification-Acknowledgment Android OS Phone Application

This paper discusses the design and development of the Android phone application Responder and how it assists Flight Operation Team (FOT) members in handling alerts from a Short Message Service (SMS) text message and email based notification system. The FOT needed a simplified and more powerful tool for receiving, storing, and acknowledging notifications sent from the ground systems automated notification software called Attention! (Registered Trademark). The previous system was to rely on a text message application that comes on a phone. This way was slow, inefficient, and did a poor job of keeping FOT members informed on the state of a situation when multiple notifications are being sent out by Attention! (Registered Trademark). Responder is designed to provide easier viewing and acknowledging of multiple messages. It gives the user a quick look at all recently received messages in an organized and clean manner that prevents notifications from being lost during a large burst of messages. It makes it easier to find and review old messages received and Responder was designed to give the user more flexibility in setting up how and what alerts will notify them when they are received by the phone. Since the implementation of Responder the FOT members are more informed and are able to focus more on problem solving the reason a notification was received then trying to keep up with sending cumbersome acknowledgements over text message or email. Responder is only able to receive and send SMS text messages but by using email to text services provided by the cellular carrier it is able to send and receive emails.

notification↗

NASA NTRS2004

Automation of Design Engineering Processes

A method, and a computer program that helps to implement the method, have been developed to automate and systematize the retention and retrieval of all the written records generated during the process of designing a complex engineering system. It cannot be emphasized strongly enough that all the written records as used here is meant to be taken literally: it signifies not only final drawings and final engineering calculations but also such ancillary documents as minutes of meetings, memoranda, requests for design changes, approval and review documents, and reports of tests. One important purpose served by the method is to make the records readily available to all involved users via their computer workstations from one computer archive while eliminating the need for voluminous paper files stored in different places. Another important purpose served by the method is to facilitate the work of engineers who are charged with sustaining the system and were not involved in the original design decisions. The method helps the sustaining engineers to retrieve information that enables them to retrace the reasoning that led to the original design decisions, thereby helping them to understand the system better and to make informed engineering choices pertaining to maintenance and/or modifications of the system. The software used to implement the method is written in Microsoft Access. All of the documents pertaining to the design of a given system are stored in one relational database in such a manner that they can be related to each other via a single tracking number.

Torrey, Glenn↗

DOE OSTI2020

Machine learning prediction of incidence of Alzheimer’s disease using large-scale administrative health data

Nationwide population-based cohort provides a new opportunity to build an automated risk prediction model based on individuals’ history of health and healthcare beyond existing risk prediction models. We tested the possibility of machine learning models to predict future incidence of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) using large-scale administrative health data. From the Korean National Health Insurance Service database between 2002 and 2010, we obtained de-identified health data in elders above 65 years (N = 40,736) containing 4,894 unique clinical features including ICD-10 codes, medication codes, laboratory values, history of personal and family illness and socio-demographics. To define incident AD we considered two operational definitions: “definite AD” with diagnostic codes and dementia medication (n = 614) and “probable AD” with only diagnosis (n = 2026). We trained and validated random forest, support vector machine and logistic regression to predict incident AD in 1, 2, 3, and 4 subsequent years. For predicting future incidence of AD in balanced samples (bootstrapping), the machine learning models showed reasonable performance in 1-year prediction with AUC of 0.775 and 0.759, based on “definite AD” and “probable AD” outcomes, respectively; in 2-year, 0.730 and 0.693; in 3-year, 0.677 and 0.644; in 4-year, 0.725 and 0.683. The results were similar when the entire (unbalanced) samples were used. Important clinical features selected in logistic regression included hemoglobin level, age and urine protein level. This study may shed a light on the utility of the data-driven machine learning model based on large-scale administrative health data in AD risk prediction, which may enable better selection of individuals at risk for AD in clinical trials or early detection in clinical settings.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Seeing is Believing: Autonomous Microscopy and the Data Revolution in Materials Science [Slides]

Machine intelligence has the potential to revolutionize materials science, enabling autonomous synthesis, self-driving characterization, and accelerated modeling. However, despite the promise, successful implementation of these methods in day-to-day research remains a challenge. This talk will delve into the reasons behind this, exploring how truly intelligent experiments are hindered by opaque experiment control, a lack of domain-specific models, and human-centric design. Through a focus on the characterization of next-generation microelectronics and energy storage materials, I will share insights from both successful and failed attempts to implement machine intelligence. We will then explore the next steps necessary to unlock the full potential of machine intelligence in materials science, creating a future where intelligent systems work seamlessly alongside researchers to drive innovation and discovery.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2005

Domain Compilation for Embedded Real-Time Planning

A recently conceived approach to automated real-time control of the actions of a robotic system enables an embedded real-time planning algorithm to develop plans that are more robust than they would otherwise be, without imposing an excessive computational burden. This approach occupies a middle ground between two prior approaches known in the art as the universal-plan and hybrid approaches. Ever since discovering the performance limitations of taking a sense-plan-act approach to controlling robots, the robotics community has endeavored to follow a behavior-based approach in which a behavior includes a rapid feedback loop between state estimation and motor control. Heretofore, system architectures following this approach have been based, variously, on algorithms that implement universal plans or algorithms that function as hybrids of planners and executives. In a typical universal-plan case, a set of behaviors is merged into the plan, but the system must be restricted to relatively small problem domains to avoid having to reason about too many states and represent them in the plan. In the hybrid approach, one implements actions as small sets of behaviors, each applicable to a limited set of circumstances. Each action is intended to bring the system to a subgoal state. A planning algorithm is used to string these actions together into a sequence to traverse the state space from an initial or current state to a goal state. The hybrid approach works well in a static environment, but it is inherently brittle in a dynamic environment because a failure can occur when the environment strays beyond the region of applicability of the current activity. In the present approach, a system can vary from the hybrid approach to the universal-plan approach, depending on a single integer parameter, denoted n, which can range from 1 to a maximum domain-dependent value of M. As illustrated in the figure, n = 1 represents the hybrid approach, in which each linked action covers a small part of the state space of the system. As n increases, the portion of state space associated with each action and its subgoal grows. When n reaches M, coverage extends over the full state space, so that the system contains a universal plan.

Barrett, Anthony↗

NASA NTRS2022

Estimating Tropical Cyclone Threats to Floating Rigs in the Gulf of Mexico

Offshore drilling operations in the Gulf of Mexico are particularly vulnerable during hurricane season. When a weather threat arises, a decision to evacuate the rig and/or move to a safe location may need to be made. Securing the well, evacuating, and/or moving to a safe location can take a considerable amount of time. This transition time is called T-time. T-time is not only rig dependent, but also depends on the activity being performed at the time of the threat. For these reasons, it is important to assess tropical cyclone threats and the estimated time it will take the storm to reach the rig location from the time it is first detected. The objective of this study is to use 50 years of cyclone history from a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) database, the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) to estimate cyclone threats at any location in the Gulf of Mexico. The cyclone threat is estimated based on the rig location as well as the start date and duration of the offshore activity. By threat, it is meant the likelihood that a specific location with an associated offshore activity lies within the forecasted track cone and storm size of the upcoming cyclone. Three representative rig locations in the Gulf of Mexico were selected as assessment sites to evaluate the threat of incoming cyclones for different T-times. To conduct this tropical cyclone study, an Excel spreadsheet tool was developed to automate the analysis of the tropical cyclone data. The spreadsheet tool allows the user to input any location (i.e., longitude and latitude) in the Gulf of Mexico and displays a list of historical cyclones that have passed within 150 nautical miles of that location during the activity period selected by the user. In addition, the tool allows the user to input any T-time to assess the threat of cyclones that would not provide adequate time to secure the well, evacuate, and/or move to a safe location.

Offshore Oil Drilling↗

DOE OSTI2024

Core Design Optimization of the Westinghouse Lead Fast Reactor

Westinghouse is pursuing an advanced Nuclear Power Plant design based on Lead Fast Reactor (LFR) technology for global commercialization. To achieve an optimal combination of key attributes, such as safety, sustainability, and economic competitiveness, Westinghouse and ANL partnered in developing and applying a formalized core design optimization strategy. An LFR analysis workflow was developed to automate a suite of reactor physics, fuels performance, safety, and economics simulations on a selected LFR concept. The workflow streamlines analysis of a wide range of LFR designs with different dimensions and fuel types to assess their viability and economic performance, significantly reducing human processing time and risks of processing errors. The LFR optimization exercise was defined, resulting in selection of the design constraints (geometric, neutronics, thermo-mechanical, safety, thermal-hydraulics, and economics) and performance metrics researched (minimization of both the fuels LCOE and the first core inventory cost). A total of 14 varied design parameters were considered, including assembly dimensions, coolant temperature, and enrichment distribution throughout the core. The LFR analysis workflow was connected to DAKOTA for sensitivity and optimization analyses. Due to the extremely large size of the potential LFR optimization solution space relative to the computing time required to characterize one LFR solution, a multi-stage optimization approach was proposed to breakdown the problem into several stages with more reasonable sizes. This optimization approach enabled finding various viable core solutions with different cost tradeoffs that were considered by Westinghouse and justify selection of a smaller core with multi-batch 2-year cycle length.

Stauff, Nicolas E.↗

NASA NTRS1998

A Photo Album of Earth Scheduling Landsat 7 Mission Daily Activities

Landsat7 is a member of a new generation of Earth observation satellites. Landsat7 will carry on the mission of the aging Landsat 5 spacecraft by acquiring high resolution, multi-spectral images of the Earth surface for strategic, environmental, commercial, agricultural and civil analysis and research. One of the primary mission goals of Landsat7 is to accumulate and seasonally refresh an archive of global images with full coverage of Earth's landmass, less the central portion of Antarctica. This archive will enable further research into seasonal, annual and long-range trending analysis in such diverse research areas as crop yields, deforestation, population growth, and pollution control, to name just a few. A secondary goal of Landsat7 is to fulfill imaging requests from our international partners in the mission. Landsat7 will transmit raw image data from the spacecraft to 25 ground stations in 20 subscribing countries. Whereas earlier Landsat missions were scheduled manually (as are the majority of current low-orbit satellite missions), the task of manually planning and scheduling Landsat7 mission activities would be overwhelmingly complex when considering the large volume of image requests, the limited resources available, spacecraft instrument limitations, and the limited ground image processing capacity, not to mention avoidance of foul weather systems. The Landsat7 Mission Operation Center (MOC) includes an image scheduler subsystem that is designed to automate the majority of mission planning and scheduling, including selection of the images to be acquired, managing the recording and playback of the images by the spacecraft, scheduling ground station contacts for downlink of images, and generating the spacecraft commands for controlling the imager, recorder, transmitters and antennas. The image scheduler subsystem autonomously generates 90% of the spacecraft commanding with minimal manual intervention. The image scheduler produces a conflict-free schedule for acquiring images of the "best" 250 scenes daily for refreshing the global archive. It then equitably distributes the remaining resources for acquiring up to 430 scenes to satisfy requests by international subscribers. The image scheduler selects candidate scenes based on priority and age of the requests, and predicted cloud cover and sun angle at each scene. It also selects these scenes to avoid instrument constraint violations and maximizes efficiency of resource usage by encouraging acquisition of scenes in clusters. Of particular interest to the mission planners, it produces the resulting schedule in a reasonable time, typically within 15 minutes.

Potter, William↗

DOE OSTI2022

Findings on Subtask 3.1 - Bakken Rich Gas Enhanced Oil Recovery Project

Total in-place oil for the Bakken petroleum system (BPS) (which includes the Bakken and Three Forks Formations) has been estimated to be 600 billion barrels (bbl). However, BPS wells have decline rates as high as 85% over the first 3 years of their lives, and primary recovery factors typically range from 3% to 10% of original oil in place. Given the low initial recovery rates, even small incremental productivity improvements could dramatically increase technically recoverable oil in the BPS. One potential solution is enhanced oil recovery (EOR) using gas injection, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) or hydrocarbon (HC) gases. While commonly used in conventional reservoirs, CO2 EOR in unconventional tight oil reservoirs has been limited to pilot tests. EOR using rich gas (mixture of methane, ethane, and propane) has also been employed in numerous pilots in several unconventional plays and has recently been successfully applied in the Eagle Ford play. If successful, large-scale gas-based EOR in the BPS could dramatically increase oil productivity and recovery factors and extend the life of the play for decades. While CO2 may be a technically suitable working fluid for EOR in the BPS, supplies are limited and costs for using CO2 in EOR pilots are prohibitively high. Meanwhile, produced gas flaring has presented challenges for BPS operators in North Dakota. Analysis conducted by the North Dakota Pipeline Authority indicates that the current gas-gathering infrastructure in North Dakota is insufficient to accommodate all of the associated gas that is produced from the BPS. The geographically isolated location of North Dakota relative to large natural gas markets, combined with suppressed natural gas prices, has made it economically challenging for industry to invest capital in expanding gas-gathering infrastructure in the state. These circumstances led to a research program conducted by the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) in partnership with Liberty Resources Management Company LLC (LR) to examine the potential to use rich gas injection for EOR and mitigate flaring. A rich gas EOR pilot test was designed and executed by LR at its Stomping Horse development area in Williams County, North Dakota. From July 2018 through May 2019, a total of 160 million standard cubic feet (MMscf) of rich produced gas was injected into the BPS using five different wells in a sequential injection strategy. LR’s Leon–Gohrick drill spacing unit (DSU) was used as the test site. Regulatory oversight was provided by the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC). Technical support was provided by the EERC through a series of laboratory, modeling, and field-based activities, and additional post-pilot research activities incorporated learnings from the test, developed new laboratory data, improved fracture modeling methods, and developed machine learning and big data analytics. The results from the Stomping Horse rich gas EOR pilot activities indicate that developing an effective, economical EOR approach for the BPS will require more field tests. Another key lesson learned from the Stomping Horse tests is that detailed pre- and posttest data on reservoir conditions and fluids production are essential. Robust reservoir characterization provides information that is crucial to creating realistic geomodels and conducting valid dynamic simulations of potential EOR scenarios. A detailed understanding of the completions and production history of offset wells is also necessary for valid test result interpretations. This knowledge is essential to designing the operational parameters of injectivity tests and interpreting the results. A conformance control strategy is also essential to success. Laboratory-based examinations of rich gas interactions with reservoir fluids and rocks were conducted, with an emphasis on determining the ability to mobilize oil in the tight reservoir rocks and shales of the BPS. Injection fluid composition was shown to have a positive impact on reducing reservoir oil minimum miscibility pressure (MMP), reducing interfacial tension (IFT), and altering wettability. IFT and contact angle measurements demonstrated that wettability can be altered in the presence of rich gas, suggesting the potential to improve oil recovery. Iterative modeling of surface infrastructure and reservoir performance using data generated by the various project activities was conducted. A geologic model of the Stomping Horse area was built; history-matched oil, gas, and water production was used in simulations of various EOR scenarios. Early programmatic modeling results were used to support LR’s design and operation of the EOR pilot and to provide insight regarding optimization of future commercial-scale BPS EOR design and operations. Post-pilot modeling focused on alternative methods of understanding complex fracture networks and accelerating simulation time. These led to improved simulation run times and provide excellent history-matching results. Several of these iterative models were used as the bases for developing algorithms into machine learning and big data analytics. History matching in reservoir simulation is time-consuming and computer processing-intensive. Machine learning algorithms were created, and an automated history-matching tool was developed. A large set of synthetic reservoir simulations were created to generate well responses (oil, gas, and water production, well bottomhole pressure [BHP], and tracer or propane breakthrough) for a set of EOR operating parameters that included offset well status (open or closed), injectate (rich gas or propane), injection rate, and injection well BHP. A user interface was developed to provide real-time visualization. Machine learning-based models were developed to provide rapid forecasting of well performance given a set of user-defined EOR operating parameters. These predictive models allow the user to modify the offset well status, injection rate, and injection well BHP and rapidly forecast future production performance. The combination of real-time visualization tools with real-time forecasting tools provides a framework for real-time control—operational changes that the EOR site operator can enact (e.g., changing gas injection rates) to affect the observed performance and potentially improve the EOR outcome. There is great reason to be optimistic about the future of EOR in the Bakken. The results of the laboratory studies suggest significant potential for high rates of oil mobilization using produced field gas injection under the right conditions. The results of the lab studies, combined with rigorous statistical analysis of well production data and associated modeling efforts, confirm the notion that fluid mobility within the reservoir is controlled by fractures. As more knowledge is gained about the nature and distribution of fracture networks in the Bakken, the industry will be in a better position to predict and, ultimately, influence fluid mobility. New field tests are necessary to develop a more complete understanding of those conditions. Thoughtful and creatively engineered field tests within a well-characterized geologic setting will yield the fundamental knowledge needed to take Bakken oil production to the next level. This subtask was cofunded through the EERC–U.S. Department of Energy Joint Program on Research and Development for Fossil Energy-Related Resources Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233. Nonfederal funding was provided by the North Dakota Industrial Commission’s Oil and Gas Research Program and Computer Modelling Group.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data Interfaces for Automated Vehicle Services - A Municipality Perspective

As Automated Vehicle (AV) services proliferate, data sharing between AV operators and municipal agents is assuming greater importance. Information on the dynamic nature of the road system such as incidents to avoid, weather hazards (such as flooding), construction and detours, as well as active safety concerns (e.g. - riots) is important for AV operators. Such information cannot be directly sensed from a vehicle's sensor array, but instead must be communicated in a timely and trustworthy channel. Municipalities are interested in pushing this information to AV operators to support emergency response efforts, reduce traffic in construction zones, and generally improve operation of the system. Similarly, information on vehicle safety such as disengagements, as well as critical information on the use of roadway system (trips, origin and destination patterns) are important performance factors for municipalities to understand utilization and plan for appropriate infrastructure. As mobility shifts to on-demand options, the need for safe and coordinated pick-up and drop-off zones will increase (potentially reducing parking needs). For all of these reasons, communication flows between AV operators and municipalities are becoming increasingly important. This paper investigates the functions, emerging practices and protocols for sharing of such critical data, and identifies gaps in and challenges in existing practices. Additionally, case studies are used to highlight the impacts of data sharing between AV operators and municipalities.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Virtual Metering for Monitoring Building Energy Consumption

The United States Department of Energy (DOE) has standard metering requirements of commercial buildings for optimizing energy performance. The guiding principles are to continuously track and optimize energy performance and install building-level meters for electricity, natural gas, and steam. Some buildings at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) have physical submeters monitoring their energy consumption, but these meters have proven to be unreliable. And, in most cases, replacing them has proven to be a slow process. Installing new submeters also requires a temporary lockout of the circuit on which they are being installed. Many buildings at LANL contain laboratories with ongoing experiments or data centers, which makes an equipment power outage nearly impossible to plan. This inability to plan power outages results in long-term submeter failures. Although most submeters are eventually replaced, failures lead to missing consumption data for some unpredictable, extended time. A building automation system (BAS) is a system that provides control and monitoring on a building to maintain the operational performance of the building and occupancy comfort. Many buildings at LANL currently have a BAS, and all new renovations and installs will include installing a BAS if one does not already exist. The intended purpose for a BAS is primarily to monitor the health and efficiency of a building; however, it is also possible to calculate equipment power and energy consumption using BAS information. This project aims to use virtual meters to monitor building energy consumption as a cost-effective and minimally labor-intensive alternative to installing physical submeters. The fault detection and diagnostics tool, SkySpark, provides a centralized database for all the data from the various BAS that are active at LANL. This data includes the information that is needed to create virtual meters for heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems in most buildings, including heating and cooling loads. 9 This report begins with a detailed summary of the project, including the reasoning, procedure, and results. The specific processes of creating the various virtual meters are then identified. Then the limitations are discussed. And, lastly, the results and future potential are presented.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗