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At least 505 records · Page 28

Identifying COVID-19 cases and extracting patient reported symptoms from Reddit using natural language processing

We used social media data from “covid19positive” subreddit, from 03/2020 to 03/2022 to identify COVID-19 cases and extract their reported symptoms automatically using natural language processing (NLP). We trained a Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers classification model with chunking to identify COVID-19 cases; also, we developed a novel QuadArm model, which incorporates Question-answering, dual-corpus expansion, Adaptive rotation clustering, and mapping, to extract symptoms. Our classification model achieved a 91.2% accuracy for the early period (03/2020-05/2020) and was applied to the Delta (07/2021–09/2021) and Omicron (12/2021–03/2022) periods for case identification. We identified 310, 8794, and 12,094 COVID-positive authors in the three periods, respectively. The top five common symptoms extracted in the early period were coughing (57%), fever (55%), loss of sense of smell (41%), headache (40%), and sore throat (40%). During the Delta period, these symptoms remained as the top five symptoms with percent authors reporting symptoms reduced to half or fewer than the early period. During the Omicron period, loss of sense of smell was reported less while sore throat was reported more. Our study demonstrated that NLP can be used to identify COVID-19 cases accurately and extracted symptoms efficiently.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Closing the loop between microstructure and charge transport in conjugated polymers by combining microscopy and simulation

A grand challenge in materials science is to identify the impact of molecular composition and structure across a range of length scales on macroscopic properties. We demonstrate a unified experimental–theoretical framework that coordinates experimental measurements of mesoscale structure with molecular-level physical modeling to bridge multiple scales of physical behavior. Here we apply this framework to understand charge transport in a semiconducting polymer. Spatially-resolved nanodiffraction in a transmission electron microscope is combined with a self-consistent framework of the polymer chain statistics to yield a detailed picture of the polymer microstructure ranging from the molecular to device relevant scale. Using these data as inputs for charge transport calculations, the combined multiscale approach highlights the underrepresented role of defects in existing transport models. Short-range transport is shown to be more chaotic than is often pictured, with the drift velocity accounting for a small portion of overall charge motion. Local transport is sensitive to the alignment and geometry of polymer chains. At longer length scales, large domains and gradual grain boundaries funnel charges preferentially to certain regions, creating inhomogeneous charge distributions. While alignment generally improves mobility, these funneling effects negatively impact mobility. The microstructure is modified in silico to explore possible design rules, showing chain stiffness and alignment to be beneficial while local homogeneity has no positive effect. This combined approach creates a flexible and extensible pipeline for analyzing multiscale functional properties and a general strategy for extending the accesible length scales of experimental and theoretical probes by harnessing their combined strengths.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Electromagnetic response and emergent topological orders in transition metal dichalcogenide MoTe 2 bilayers

Twisted bilayer transition metal dichalcogenides, such as MoTe 2 , provide a versatile platform for exploring correlated topological phases. This work investigates the interplay between perpendicular magnetic and electric fields in tuning the electronic structure and emergent topological orders of twisted bilayer MoTe 2 (t-MoTe 2 ) across two distinct regimes: a low-twist-angle phase (θ ≈ 2.1°) hosting multiple Chern bands of identical Chern numbers per valley, and a higher-angle phase (θ ≈ 3.89°) featuring Haldane-like bands with opposite Chern numbers. Using a continuum model incorporating moiré potentials up to second harmonics, we compute the Hofstadter fractal spectra under applied fields, revealing Landau fan structures and magnetic-flux-dependent band topology. These fractal spectra are useful in studying emergent topological orders in terms of the composite fermion picture, where the statistical Chern-Simons flux is approximated as a uniform gauge field. We demonstrate that the system hosts both Jain-sequence fractional Chern insulators (FCIs) and non-Jain fractal FCIs with higher Chern numbers. As a result, the electric field suppresses composite fermion gaps and induces topological quantum phase transitions. Furthermore, our analysis extends to valley-contrasting flux attachment, proposing pathways to describe fractional quantum spin Hall states.

Anyons↗

Superuniversality from disorder at two-dimensional topological phase transitions

We investigate the effects of quenched randomness on topological quantum phase transitions in strongly interacting two-dimensional systems. We focus first on transitions driven by the condensation of a subset of fractionalized quasiparticles (“anyons”) identified with “electric charge” excitations of a phase with intrinsic topological order. All other anyons have nontrivial mutual statistics with the condensed subset and hence become confined at the anyon condensation transition. Furthermore, using a combination of microscopically exact duality transformations and asymptotically exact real-space renormalization group techniques applied to these two-dimensional disordered gauge theories, we argue that the resulting critical scaling behavior is “superuniversal” across a wide range of such condensation transitions and is controlled by the same infinite-randomness fixed point as that of the 2D random transverse-field Ising model. We validate this claim using large-scale quantum Monte Carlo simulations that allow us to extract zero-temperature critical exponents and correlation functions in (2+1)D disordered interacting systems. We discuss generalizations of these results to a large class of ground-state and excited-state topological transitions in systems with intrinsic topological order as well as those where topological order is either protected or enriched by global symmetries. When the underlying topological order and the symmetry group are Abelian, our results provide prototypes for topological phase transitions between distinct many-body localized phases.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Evaluation of Mesoscale Convective Systems in Climate Simulations: Methodological Development and Results from MPAS-CAM over the U.S.

In this study, a process-oriented approach is developed to evaluate warm-season mesoscale convective system (MCS) precipitation and their favorable large-scale meteorological patterns (FLSMPs) over the U.S. This approach features a novel observation-driven MCS-tracking algorithm using infrared brightness temperature and precipitation feature at 12, 25 and 50 km resolution and metrics to evaluate the model large-scale environment favorable for MCS initiation. The tracking algorithm successfully reproduces the observed MCS statistics from a reference 4-km radar MCS database. To demonstrate the utility of the new methodologies in evaluating MCS in climate simulations with mesoscale resolution, the process-oriented approach is applied to two climate simulations produced by the Variable-Resolution Model for Prediction Across Scales coupled to the Community Atmosphere Model physics, with refined horizontal grid spacing at 50 km and 25 km over North America. With the tracking algorithm applied to simulations and observations at equivalent resolutions, the simulated number of MCS and associated precipitation amount, frequency and intensity are found to be consistently underestimated in the Central U.S., particularly from May to August. The simulated MCS precipitation shows little diurnal variation and lasts too long, while MCS precipitation area is too large and intensity is too weak. The model is able to simulate four types of observed FLSMP associated with frontal systems and low-level jets (LLJ) in spring, but the frequencies are underestimated because of low-level dry bias and weaker LLJ. Precipitation simulated under different FLSMPs peak during daytime, in contrast to the observed nocturnal peak. Implications of these findings for future model development and diagnostics are discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Extracting the Breakout Distance from the ECOT Trajectories: Gaussian Process Regression Approach

Enhanced Corner Turning (ECOT) experiments provide an important metric of performance of high explosive (HE) formulations. The breakout distance is a single scalar value that characterizes the corner turning efficiency of an HE. Extracting the breakout distance from the raw ECOT results, whether experimental or simulated, is a conceptually straightforward procedure which, however, is non-unique, especially in the presence of noise. More specifically, this procedure involves numerical smoothing and selecting particular values for parameters of this smoothing introduces human bias. In this work, we propose to use the Gaussian process regression to analyze ECOT results. This analysis involves the effective smoothing of the data, thus allowing for accurate extraction of the breakout distance. Most importantly, the parameters of this smoothing can be inferred from the ECOT data itself, rendering the approach effectively parameter-free and thus diminishing the human bias. An additional benefit of the Gaussian process regression, being a statistical inference method, is that not just the value of the breakout distance, but also its confidence interval can be extracted from the data. This report introduces the Gaussian process regression, as applied to ECOT, and demonstrates its usefulness by extracting the breakout distances for a selection of experimental and simulated data.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Comparative study of machine learning techniques for post-combustion carbon capture systems

Computational analysis of countercurrent flows in packed absorption columns, often used in solvent-based post-combustion carbon capture systems (CCSs), is challenging. Typically, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) approaches are used to simulate the interactions between a solvent, gas, and column's packing geometry while accounting for the thermodynamics, kinetics, heat, and mass transfer effects of the absorption process. These simulations can then be used explain a column's hydrodynamic characteristics and evaluate its CO 2 -capture efficiency. However, these approaches are computationally expensive, making it difficult to evaluate numerous designs and operating conditions to improve efficiency at industrial scales. In this work, we comprehensively explore the application of statistical ML methods, convolutional neural networks (CNNs), and graph neural networks (GNNs) to aid and accelerate the scale-up and design optimization of solvent-based post-combustion CCSs. We apply these methods to CFD datasets of countercurrent flows in absorption columns with structured packings characterized by several geometric parameters. We train models to use these parameters, inlet velocity conditions, and other model-specific representations of the column to estimate key determinants of CO 2 -capture efficiency without having to simulate additional CFD datasets. We also evaluate the impact of different input types on the accuracy and generalizability of each model. We discuss the strengths and limitations of each approach to further elucidate the role of CNNs, GNNs, and other machine learning approaches for CO 2 -capture property prediction and design optimization.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

PopSyCLE: A New Population Synthesis Code for Compact Object Microlensing Events

We present a new Milky Way microlensing simulation code, dubbed PopSyCLE (Population Synthesis for Compact object Lensing Events). PopSyCLE is the first resolved microlensing simulation to include a compact object distribution derived from numerical supernovae explosion models and both astrometric and photometric microlensing effects. We demonstrate the capabilities of PopSyCLE by investigating the optimal way to find black holes (BHs) with microlensing. Candidate BHs have typically been selected from wide-field photometric microlensing surveys, such as OGLE, by selecting events with long Einstein crossing times (tE > 120 days). These events can be selected at closest approach and monitored astrometrically in order to constrain the mass of each lens; PopSyCLE predicts a BH detection rate of ~40% for such a program. We find that the detection rate can be enhanced to ~ 85% by selecting events with both tE > 120 days and a microlensing parallax of πE < 0.08. Unfortunately, such a selection criterion cannot be applied during the event as πE requires both pre- and post-peak photometry. However, historical microlensing events from photometric surveys can be revisited using this new selection criteria in order to statistically constrain the abundance of BHs in the Milky Way. The future WFIRST microlensing survey provides both precise photometry and astrometry and will yield individual masses of O(100 - 1000) black holes, which is at least an order of magnitude more than is possible with individual candidate follow-up with current facilities. The resulting sample of BH masses from WFIRST will begin to constrain the shape of the black hole present-day mass function, BH multiplicity, and BH kick velocity distributions

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Maximum Energy of Particles Accelerated in Gamma-Ray Burst Afterglow Shocks

Particle acceleration in relativistic collisionless shocks remains an open problem in high-energy astrophysics. Particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations predict that electron acceleration in weakly magnetized shocks proceeds via small-angle scattering, leading to a maximum electron energy significantly below the Bohm limit. This upper bound on electron energy manifests observationally as a characteristic synchrotron cutoff, providing a direct probe of the underlying acceleration physics. Gamma-ray burst (GRB) afterglows offer an exceptional laboratory for testing these predictions. Here, we model the spectral evolution of GRB afterglows during the relativistic deceleration phase, incorporating PIC-motivated acceleration prescriptions and self-consistently computing synchrotron and synchrotron self-Compton emission. We find that low-energy bursts in low-density environments, typical of short GRBs, exhibit a pronounced synchrotron cutoff in the GeV band within minutes to hours after the trigger. Applying our framework to GRB 190114C and GRB 130427A, we find that current observations are insufficient to discriminate between PIC-motivated acceleration and the Bohm limit, primarily due to poor photon statistics in the Fermi-Large Area Telescope band. Nevertheless, future MeV–TeV afterglow observations can break model degeneracies and place substantially tighter constraints on the mechanisms responsible for particle acceleration in relativistic shocks. To this end, we simulate a fiducial nearby short GRB as a promising probe of the cutoff location, for which the two acceleration scenarios are cleanly distinguishable and the detection of such an event in the near future remains feasible.

Wu, Zhao-Feng [Purdue University, West Lafayette, ↗

Characterizing Dislocation Defects in Dark Field X-ray Microscopy Images of Bulk Aluminum

Material defects play a large role in material response under shock loading, yet the process of how these defects initiate, propagate, and annihilate is not well understood. Using a newly developed diagnostic, dark field X-ray microscopy (DFXM), we can now visualize the behavior of dislocation defects in materials at the mesoscale under varying conditions. Using data from the European Synchrotron Radiation Facility, we apply a variety of image processing techniques to capture relevant features to locate and characterize size and orientation of dislocation defects in bulk aluminum DFXM images. Beyond simple visualization, this analysis drives statistical characterization of the defects and their dynamic response to further improve the relevant physics models.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

How Useful are Conventional I–Vs for Performance Calibration of Single- and Two-Junction Perovskite Solar Cells? A Statistical Analysis of Performance Data on ≈200 Cells from 30 Global Sources

As perovskite photovoltaics (PV) advance from the laboratory to commercial prototypes, their accurate and reliable performance testing is becoming increasingly important. The well-documented dynamic response of perovskite solar cells to an external applied voltage has led to the development of steady-state performance measurement methods; however, these methods have not been widely adopted by the perovskite PV community. A key reason for this is that steady-state measurement methods take tens of minutes to complete, as opposed to conventional "fast" current-voltage (I-V) measurements usually lasting a few seconds. Fast I-Vs arise from a snapshot, almost always not a steady-state condition of the device; however, given their widespread use, the question arises: how do performance parameters of perovskite PV compare when measured with fast I-V and with a steady-state method? Results compiled from approximately 200 perovskite PV cells, including single junction, and two-terminal perovskite-perovskite and perovskite-Si tandems, show that fast I-Vs can provide a useful measure of the open-circuit voltage of the devices, while the short-circuit current and the overall efficiency can be widely misestimated. Here, the implications of these findings on performance testing protocols are discussed and possible options for fast and accurate testing of perovskite PV are proposed.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Entangled Photon Spectroscopy

Conspectus The enhanced interest in quantum-related phenomena has provided new opportunities for chemists to push the limits of detection and analysis of chemical processes. As some have called this the second quantum revolution, a time has come to apply the rules learned from previous research in quantum phenomena toward new methods and technologies important to chemists. While there has been great interest recently in quantum information science (QIS), the quest to understand how nonclassical states of light interact with matter has been ongoing for more than two decades. Our entry into this field started around this time with the use of materials to produce nonclassical states of light. Here, the process of multiphoton absorption led to photon-number squeezed states of light, where the photon statistics are sub-Poissonian. In addition to the great interest in generating squeezed states of light, there was also interest in the formation of entangled states of light. While much of the effort is still in foundational physics, there are numerous new avenues as to how quantum entanglement can be applied to spectroscopy, imaging, and sensing. These opportunities could have a large impact on the chemical community for a broad spectrum of applications. Here, we discuss the use of entangled (or quantum) light for spectroscopy as well as applications in microscopy and interferometry. The potential benefits of the use of quantum light are discussed in detail. From the first experiments in porphyrin dendrimer systems by Dr. Dong-Ik Lee in our group to the measurements of the entangled two photon absorption cross sections of biological systems such as flavoproteins, the usefulness of entangled light for spectroscopy has been illustrated. These early measurements led the way to more advanced measurements of the unique characteristics of both entangled light and the entangled photon absorption cross-section, which provides new control knobs for manipulating excited states in molecules. The first reports of fluorescence-induced entangled processes were in organic chromophores where the entangled photon cross-section was measured. These results would later have widespread impact in applications such as entangled two-photon microscopy. From our design, construction and implementation of a quantum entangled photon excited microscope, important imaging capabilities were achieved at an unprecedented low excitation intensity of 10 7 photons/s, which is 6 orders of magnitude lower than the excitation level for the classical two-photon image. New reports have also illustrated an advantage of nonclassical light in Raman imaging as well. From a standpoint of more precise measurements, the use of entangled photons in quantum interferometry may offer new opportunities for chemistry research. Experiments that combine molecular spectroscopy and quantum interferometry, by utilizing the correlations of entangled photons in a Hong–Ou–Mandel (HOM) interferometer, have been carried out. The initial experiment showed that the HOM signal is sensitive to the presence of a resonant organic sample placed in one arm of the interferometer. In addition, parameters such as the dephasing time have been obtained with the opportunity for even more advanced phenomenology in the future.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Constraining Galaxy-Halo connection using machine learning

We investigate the potential of machine learning (ML) methods to model small-scale galaxy clustering for constraining Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD) parameters. Our analysis reveals that while many ML algorithms report good statistical fits, they often yield likelihood contours that are significantly biased in both mean values and variances relative to the true model parameters. This highlights the importance of careful data processing and algorithm selection in ML applications for galaxy clustering, as even seemingly robust methods can lead to biased results if not applied correctly. ML tools offer a promising approach to exploring the HOD parameter space with significantly reduced computational costs compared to traditional brute-force methods if their robustness is established. Using our ANN-based pipeline, we successfully recreate some standard results from recent literature. Properly restricting the HOD parameter space, transforming the training data, and carefully selecting ML algorithms are essential for achieving unbiased and robust predictions. Among the methods tested, artificial neural networks (ANNs) outperform random forests (RF) and ridge regression in predicting clustering statistics, when the HOD prior space is appropriately restricted. We demonstrate these findings using the projected two-point correlation function (w p (r p )), angular multipoles of the correlation function (ξ ℓ (r)), and the void probability function (VPF) of Luminous Red Galaxies from Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument mocks. Our results show that while combining w p (r p ) and VPF improves parameter constraints, adding the multipoles ξ 0 , ξ 2 , and ξ 4 to w p (r p ) does not significantly improve the constraints.

cosmology↗

Enhanced Co-Expression Extrapolation (COXEN) Gene Selection Method for Building Anti-Cancer Drug Response Prediction Models

The co-expression extrapolation (COXEN) method has been successfully used in multiple studies to select genes for predicting the response of tumor cells to a specific drug treatment. Here, we enhance the COXEN method to select genes that are predictive of the efficacies of multiple drugs for building general drug response prediction models that are not specific to a particular drug. The enhanced COXEN method first ranks the genes according to their prediction power for each individual drug and then takes a union of top predictive genes of all the drugs, among which the algorithm further selects genes whose co-expression patterns are well preserved between cancer cases for building prediction models. We apply the proposed method on benchmark in vitro drug screening datasets and compare the performance of prediction models built based on the genes selected by the enhanced COXEN method to that of models built on genes selected by the original COXEN method and randomly picked genes. Models built with the enhanced COXEN method always present a statistically significantly improved prediction performance (adjusted p-value ≤ 0.05). Our results demonstrate the enhanced COXEN method can dramatically increase the power of gene expression data for predicting drug response.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Phasor-Measurement-Unit-Based Data Analytics Using Digital Twin and PhasorAnalytics Software

A major objective of this project was to apply GE’s commercial machine learning and data analytics toolsets to large-scale, real-world, anonymized Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) datasets in order to extract signatures, correlated and/or causal factors, and precursor patterns associated with significant power system phenomena. The project had a particular emphasis on extraction of insights relevant to asset health monitoring, real-time load modeling and cybersecurity monitoring. Additionally, the team was directed to undertake a comprehensive data quality analysis for the provided datasets and encouraged to estimate the ‘machine-learning readiness’ of the datasets by documenting any major obstacles to the application of commercial machine learning algorithms. To accomplish the aforementioned objectives, the project team’s work centered around the identification of key event signatures and application of the identified event signatures for event detection and event classification. The industry-validated, semi-supervised machine learning strategy employed for event signature identification involved several major tasks, including data-preprocessing, generation of an overabundance of features, normal data identification, normality modeling, and event signature identification through a methodical, quantitative ranking of features in order of relevance to each studied event type. Throughout the project, data quality issues and mitigation techniques were investigated. In this report, insights are provided regarding the readiness of the provided synchrophasor datasets for application of machine learning and data analytics. The methodologies employed for this technical strategy are summarized in this report. With regards to data preprocessing and feature generation, the provided Training and Test Datasets were ingested into GE’s big data environment. Subsequently, the team applied bad data cleansing and data imputation scripts, event detection scripts, and application programming interfaces (APIs) to the datasets for convenient data access. The project team completed development and validation of dozens of physics-based, statistics-based and transformation-based feature functions used for the extraction of over 60 synchrophasor features. Using a new parallel feature generation technology developed on this project, over 60 features have been rapidly generated for the full two years’ worth of Training and Test Dataset data associated with both the Eastern and Western interconnects. Even accommodating for temporal down-sampling inherent to the feature extraction procedure, this parallel feature generation activity resulted in a massive feature set with a storage requirement approximately equal to that of the raw training dataset itself. With regards to normal data identification and normality modeling, a normality model was built using the feature data extracted from the Training Dataset and iteratively refined subsequent to incremental adjustments and expansions of the Training Dataset feature data. With respect to event characterization and signature identification, an event signature identification pipeline was developed and used in conjunction with the normality model to identify over 15 event signatures for key event categories within the Training Dataset. The identified event signatures were used to characterize hundreds of key events in terms of relative severity, duration, and location of the event. An investigation was undertaken to identify correlated and causal factors involved in transformer events. A separate investigation into temporal trends in ring-down analysis results was undertaken to determine possible associations between system dynamics and various other factors such as loading, season or year. To validate the identified event signatures, additional work was undertaken to develop signature-based anomaly detection and classification tools suitable for convenient application to the synchrophasor datasets. The anomaly detection and classification tools, suitable for online application, were then applied to the entirety of the Eastern Interconnect Training and Test Datasets. Performance of the event detection and classification tools was evaluated upon receipt of the Test Dataset event logs (i.e., the labels for events contained in the Test Dataset), and promising results were obtained despite several challenges (documented herein) associated with application of supervised or semi-supervised machine learning methods to large-scale, anonymized datasets. Finally, the detection and classification tools were used to detect, classify, and characterize thousands of new events not included in the original event logs provided by the DOE within both the Training and Test Datasets.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

New constraints on cosmological modified gravity theories from anisotropic three-point correlation functions of BOSS DR12 galaxies

Here we report a new test of modified gravity theories using the large-scale structure of the Universe. This paper is the first attempt to (1) apply a joint analysis of the anisotropic components of galaxy two- and three-point correlation functions (2 and 3PCFs) to actual galaxy data and (2) constrain the non-linear effects of degenerate higher-order scalar-tensor (DHOST) theories on cosmological scales. Applying this analysis to the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) data release 12, we obtain the lower bounds of –1.655 < ξ t and –0.504 < ξ s at the $95{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ confidence level on the parameters characterizing the time evolution of the tidal and shift terms of the second-order velocity field. These constraints are consistent with GR predictions of ξ t = 15/1144 and ξs = 0. Moreover, they represent a 35-fold and 20-fold improvement, respectively, over the joint analysis with only the isotropic 3PCF. We ensure the validity of our results by investigating various quantities, including theoretical models of the 3PCF, window function corrections, cumulative S/N, Fisher matrices, and statistical scattering effects of mock simulation data. We also find statistically significant discrepancies between the BOSS data and the Patchy mocks for the 3PCF measurement. Finally, we package all of our 3PCF analysis codes under the name hitomi and make them publicly available so that readers can reproduce all the results of this paper and easily apply them to ongoing future galaxy surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Advancing Fusion with Machine Learning Research Needs Workshop Report

Abstract Machine learning and artificial intelligence (ML/AI) methods have been used successfully in recent years to solve problems in many areas, including image recognition, unsupervised and supervised classification, game-playing, system identification and prediction, and autonomous vehicle control. Data-driven machine learning methods have also been applied to fusion energy research for over 2 decades, including significant advances in the areas of disruption prediction, surrogate model generation, and experimental planning. The advent of powerful and dedicated computers specialized for large-scale parallel computation, as well as advances in statistical inference algorithms, have greatly enhanced the capabilities of these computational approaches to extract scientific knowledge and bridge gaps between theoretical models and practical implementations. Large-scale commercial success of various ML/AI applications in recent years, including robotics, industrial processes, online image recognition, financial system prediction, and autonomous vehicles, have further demonstrated the potential for data-driven methods to produce dramatic transformations in many fields. These advances, along with the urgency of need to bridge key gaps in knowledge for design and operation of reactors such as ITER, have driven planned expansion of efforts in ML/AI within the US government and around the world. The Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science programs in Fusion Energy Sciences (FES) and Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) have organized several activities to identify best strategies and approaches for applying ML/AI methods to fusion energy research. This paper describes the results of a joint FES/ASCR DOE-sponsored Research Needs Workshop on Advancing Fusion with Machine Learning, held April 30–May 2, 2019, in Gaithersburg, MD (full report available at https://science.osti.gov/-/media/fes/pdf/workshop-reports/FES_ASCR_Machine_Learning_Report.pdf ). The workshop drew on broad representation from both FES and ASCR scientific communities, and identified seven Priority Research Opportunities (PRO’s) with high potential for advancing fusion energy. In addition to the PRO topics themselves, the workshop identified research guidelines to maximize the effectiveness of ML/AI methods in fusion energy science, which include focusing on uncertainty quantification, methods for quantifying regions of validity of models and algorithms, and applying highly integrated teams of ML/AI mathematicians, computer scientists, and fusion energy scientists with domain expertise in the relevant areas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Data-driven learning of Mori–Zwanzig operators for isotropic turbulence

Developing reduced-order models for turbulent flows, which contain dynamics over a wide range of scales, is an extremely challenging problem. In statistical mechanics, the Mori–Zwanzig (MZ) formalism provides a mathematically exact procedure for constructing reduced-order representations of high-dimensional dynamical systems, where the effects due to the unresolved dynamics are captured in the memory kernel and orthogonal dynamics. Turbulence models based on MZ formalism have been scarce due to the limited knowledge of the MZ operators, which originates from the difficulty in deriving MZ kernels for complex nonlinear dynamical systems. In this work, we apply a recently developed data-driven learning algorithm, which is based on Koopman's description of dynamical systems and Mori's linear projection operator, on a set of fully resolved isotropic turbulence datasets to extract the Mori–Zwanzig operators. With data augmentation using known turbulence symmetries, the extracted Markov term, memory kernel, and orthogonal dynamics are statistically converged and the generalized fluctuation–dissipation relation can be verified. The properties of the memory kernel and orthogonal dynamics, and their dependence on the choices of observables are investigated to address the modeling assumptions that are commonly used in MZ-based models. A series of numerical experiments are then constructed using the extracted kernels to evaluate the memory effects on prediction. The results show that the prediction errors are strongly affected by the choice of observables and can be further reduced by including the past history of the observables in the memory kernel.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗