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NASA NTRS1999

On the Variable Spin-Down of SGR 1900+14

We consider the physical implications of the rapid spindown of Soft Gamma Repeater 1900+14 reported in a companion paper by Woods et al. During an 80 day interval between June 1998 and the large outburst on August 27, 1998, the mean spin-down rate increased by a factor 2.3 resulting in a positive period offset of delta P/P = 1 X 10(exp -4)/ A radiation hydrodynamical outflow associated with the August 27 event could impart the required torque, but only if the dipole magnetic field is stronger than about 10(exp 14) G and the outflow lasts longer than the observed X-ray flare. A positive period increment is also a natural consequence of a gradual plastic deformation of the neutron star crust by an intense magnetic field. Finally, we discuss the relative stability of the long term spin-down rate of SGR 1900+14, and compare the relative spindown rates of the SGRs and the Anomalous X-ray Pulsars.

Thompson, Christopher↗

DOE OSTI2022

Autonomous System Subversion Tactics: Prototypes and Recommended Countermeasures

One of the fielding requirements for Advanced and Small Modular Reactors (AR/SMR) is the ability to support remote and autonomous operations. Autonomous Control Systems (ACS) are found on platforms such as Autonomous Space Vehicles, Cruise Missiles, and advanced driver-assistance systems. Each of these ACS implementations depends upon a set of decision support subsystems responsible for supporting Autonomous Mission Managers (names vary based upon field and author preferences). These Autonomous Mission Managers receive inputs from system sensors (e.g., LIDAR collection from an automobile travelling down a street; transients from a nuclear reactor), and perform a set of classifications (e.g., Red Traffic Light; Small Pedestrian at 10m; Load Rejection; Single Coolant Pump Trip), and then use these classifications in combination with recommendation algorithms to achieve platform goals (e.g., Stop the Vehicle at the Traffic Light, Avoid the Small Pedestrian; Trip the Reactor to prevent a Safety Event). The design, implementation, and fielding of an ACS capability will alter the cyber-attack surface such that existing risk management plans will need to be updated to include how to protect and defend against data-science and decision-support-system attack classes. These attack classes would include protection of the design and training environments where algorithm selection and testing and training data would be obvious attack vectors. These attack classes would also require an informed set of detection and response procedures to identify anomalous behaviors and document best practices for anomaly assessment and vulnerability mitigation and remediation. Last year we published a Cyber Threat Assessment Methodology for Autonomous and Remote Operations for AR/SMRs along with a companion publication on Cyber Attack and Defense Use Cases. The focus of the methodology was on describing and enumerating ACS processes, components, and functions such that security engineers could: evaluate subversion options against the target; identify threat actor attributes and capabilities derived from each subversion option; and identify security controls and response countermeasures. The Use Cases document offered detailed methodology examples including an assessment of a Military Base SMR, an Autonomous System Decision Loop, and implementation of AR/SMR Machine Learning algorithms. Our proposal at the end of last year was to focus on implementation of subversion prototypes related to the last Use Case area: AR/SMR Machine Learning (ML) Algorithms. We included six attack scenarios in our Use Cases paper: a Poisoning Attack against ML functions implemented using an FPGA; a Trojaning Attack against ML classifiers exploiting the excitability of Nuclear Engineers; a Backdooring Attack against ML Training environments to ensure persistence of an attack vector; a False Positive Evasion Attack against multi-factor Access Control Systems using clever inputs; an Inference Attack against ML models by an Insider with access to the Operational environment; and an Adversarial Reprogramming Attack against a Material Access Control Video Surveillance System. At the beginning of this year these six attack scenarios were provided to our research teams at Georgia Tech and Idaho State University and each team successfully implemented a subversion attack against a ML implementation to include transient misclassifications. While this is a notable outcome from this type of research, this paper offers the reader insight into not only how to structure and execute these types of attacks, but into the thought process behind how the researcher investigated the problem space, performed initial algorithm implementation, and the trial-and-error behind arriving at the successful subversion prototypes. We include in this paper a set of associated Scenarios on how these subversion prototypes could be implemented and an initial set of guidance for AR/SMR architects, Nuclear Regulators, and Cyber Defenders to implement awareness and defense capabilities into their current operational portfolios.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

ICARUS: new voyage to sterile neutrino search in the Short Baseline Program

The ICARUS collaboration operated the 760-ton T600 detector in a successful three-year physics run at the underground LNGS laboratories studying neutrino oscillations with the CNGS neutrino beam from CERN, and searching for atmospheric neutrino interactions. ICARUS performed a sensitive search for LSND-like anomalous νe appearance in the CNGS beam, which contributed to the constraints on the allowed parameters to a narrow region around $Δm^2=1 e\text{V}^2$, where all the experimental results can be coherently accommodated at 90% C.L. After a significant overhaul at CERN, the T600 detector has been installed at Fermilab. In 2020 cryogenic commissioning began with detector cool down, liquid Argon filling and recirculation. ICARUS has started operations and is presently in its commissioning phase with the aim of collecting its first neutrino events from the Booster Neutrino Beam and the NuMI off-axis beam. The main goal of the first year of ICARUS data taking will then be the definitive verification of the recent claim by NEUTRINO-4 short baseline reactor experiment both in the $ν_μ$ channel with the BNB and in the $ν_e$ with NuMI. After the first year of operations, ICARUS will commence its search for evidence of a sterile neutrino jointly with the SBND near detector, within the Short Baseline Neutrino (SBN) program. The ICARUS exposure to the NuMI beam will also give the possibility for other physics studies such as light dark matter searches and neutrino-Argon cross section measurements. The proposed contribution addresses ICARUS achievements, its status and plans for the new run at Fermilab and the ongoing developments of the analysis tools needed to fulfill its physics program.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRS2005

Summary of Magnetic Holes Project

Magnetic Holes in the solar wind are anomalous decreases in the interplanetary magnetic field as measured at a particular spacecraft. Such signatures have been observed in durations of several hours all the way down to the time resolution of the fastest magnetometer instruments, and with magnetic field decreases anywhere from a few percent to nearly full annihilation. It has been an objective of this study to implement a general strategy for detecting magnetic holes on all scales at which they can be found. Investigations into the properties of magnetic holes began with collections of events appearing distinct to the naked eye, perhaps biased by morphological characteristics or suggestive density and temperature fluctuations. More recent studies have taken the simple approach of cataloging any time period wherein the magnetic field is reduced by more than half. This investigation takes a statistical approach to the problem of identifying real magnetic hole events at all available scales.

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2024

Measurement of the e + e − → π + π − π 0 cross section in the energy range 0.62–3.50 GeV at Belle II

We report a measurement of the e + e − → π + π − π 0 cross section in the energy range from 0.62 to 3.50 GeV using an initial-state radiation technique. We use an e + e − data sample corresponding to 191 fb − 1 of integrated luminosity, collected at a center-of-mass energy at or near the ϒ ( 4 S ) resonance with the Belle II detector at the SuperKEKB collider. Signal yields are extracted by fitting the two-photon mass distribution in e + e − → π + π − π 0 γ events, which involve a π 0 → γ γ decay and an energetic photon radiated from the initial state. Signal efficiency corrections with an accuracy of 1.6% are obtained from several control data samples. The uncertainty on the cross section at the ω and ϕ resonances is dominated by the systematic uncertainty of 2.2%. The resulting cross sections in the 0.62–1.80 GeV energy range yield a μ 3 π = [ 48.91 ± 0.23 ( stat ) ± 1.07 ( syst ) ] × 10 − 10 for the leading-order hadronic vacuum polarization contribution to the muon anomalous magnetic moment. This result differs by 2.5 standard deviations from the most precise current determination. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Adachi, I. (ORCID:0000000322870173)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Spectroscopic Confirmation of the Sixth Globular Cluster in the Fornax Dwarf Spheroidal Galaxy*

The Fornax dwarf spheroidal galaxy has an anomalous number of globular clusters, five, for its stellar mass. There is a longstanding debate about a potential sixth globular cluster (Fornax 6) that has recently been "rediscovered" in DECam imaging. We present new Magellan/M2FS spectroscopy of the Fornax 6 cluster and Fornax dSph. Combined with literature data we identify ~15–17 members of the Fornax 6 cluster, showing that this overdensity is indeed a star cluster and associated with the Fornax dSph. The cluster is significantly more metal-rich (mean metallicity of $\overline{[\mathrm{Fe}/{\rm{H}}]}$ = –0.71 ± 0.05) than the other five Fornax globular clusters (–2.5 < [Fe/H] < –1.4) and more metal-rich than the bulk of Fornax. We measure a velocity dispersion of ${5.6}_{-1.6}^{+2.0}\mathrm{km}\,{{\rm{s}}}^{-1}$ corresponding to an anomalously high mass-to-light of 15 < M/L < 258 at 90% confidence when calculated assuming equilibrium. Two stars inflate this dispersion and may be either Fornax field stars or as yet unresolved binary stars. Alternatively, the Fornax 6 cluster may be undergoing tidal disruption. Based on its metal-rich nature, the Fornax 6 cluster is likely younger than the other Fornax clusters, with an estimated age of ~2 Gyr when compared to stellar isochrones. The chemodynamics and star formation history of Fornax shows imprints of major events such as infall into the Milky Way, multiple pericenter passages, star formation bursts, and/or potential mergers or interactions. Any of these events may have triggered the formation of the Fornax 6 cluster.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1994

Diagnosing anomalies of spacecraft for space maintenance and servicing

Very often servicing of satellites is necessary to replace components which are responsible for anomalous behavior of satellite operations due to adverse interactions with the natural space environment. A major difficulty with this diagnosis is that those responsible for diagnosing these anomalies do not have the tools to assess the role of the space environment causing the anomaly. To address this issue, we have under development a new rule-based, expert system for diagnosing spacecraft anomalies. The knowledge base consists of over two-hundred rules and provides links to historical and environmental databases. Environmental causes considered are bulk charging, single event upsets (SEU), surface charging, and total radiation dose. The system's driver translates forward chaining rules into a backward chaining sequence, prompting the user for information pertinent to the causes considered. When the user selects the novice mode, the system automatically gives detailed explanations and descriptions of terms and reasoning as the session progresses, in a sense teaching the user. As such it is an effective tutoring tool. The use of heuristics frees the user from searching through large amounts of irrelevant information and allows the user to input partial information (varying degrees of confidence in an answer) or 'unknown' to any question. The system is available on-line and uses C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS), an expert shell developed by the NASA Johnson Space Center AI Laboratory in Houston.

Lauriente, Michael↗

NASA NTRS1992

Proximal impact deposits at the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary in the Gulf of Mexico: a restudy of DSDP Leg 77 Sites 536 and 540

Restudy of Deep Sea Drilling Project Sites 536 and 540 in the southeast Gulf of Mexico gives evidence for a giant wave at Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary time. Five units are recognized: (1) Cenomanian limestone underlies a hiatus in which the five highest Cretaceous stages are missing, possibly because of catastrophic K-T erosion. (2) Pebbly mudstone, 45 m thick, represents a submarine landslide possibly of K-T age. (3) Current-bedded sandstone, more than 2.5 m thick, contains anomalous iridium, tektite glass, and shocked quartz; it is interpreted as ejecta from a nearby impact crater, reworked on the deep-sea floor by the resulting tsunami. (4) A 50-cm interval of calcareous mudstone containing small Cretaceous planktic foraminifera and the Ir peak is interpreted as the silt-size fraction of the Cretaceous material suspended by the impact-generated wave. (5) Calcareous mudstone with basal Tertiary forams and the uppermost tail of the Ir anomaly overlies the disturbed interval, dating the impact and wave event as K-T boundary age. Like Beloc in Haiti and Mimbral in Mexico, Sites 536 and 540 are consistent with a large K-T age impact at the nearby Chicxulub crater.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗

NASA NTRS2015

CORRIGENDUM of the MJO Transition from Shallow to Deep Convection in Cloudsat-Calipso Data and GISS GCM Simulations

We have identified several errors in the calculations that were performed to create Fig. 3 of Del Genio et al. (2012). These errors affect the composite evolution of precipitation and column water vapor versus lag relative to the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) peak presented in that figure. The precipitation and column water vapor data for the April and November 2009 MJO events were composited incorrectly because the date of the MJO peak at a given longitude was assigned to the incorrect longitude band. In addition, the precipitation data for all MJO events were first accumulated daily and the daily accumulations averaged at each lag to create the composite, rather than the averaging of instantaneous values that was used for other composite figures in the paper. One poorly sampled day in the west Pacific therefore biases the composite precipitation in that region at several lags after the MJO peak. Finally, a 4-day running mean was mistakenly applied to the precipitation and column water vapor data rather than the intended 5-day running mean. The results of the corrections are that an anomalous west Pacific precipitation maximum510 days after the MJO peak is removed and the maximum in west Pacific precipitation one pentad before the MJO peak is now more evident; there is now a clear maximum in precipitation for the entire warm pool one pentad before the MJO peak; west Pacific column water vapor now varies more strongly as a function of lag relative to the peak; and precipitation, and to a lesser extent column water vapor, in general vary more smoothly with time. The corrections do not affect any other parts of the paper nor do they change the scientific conclusions we reached. The 4-day running mean error also affects Figs. 1 and 2 therein, with almost imperceptible impacts that do not affect any results or necessitate major changes to the text.

correction↗

DOE OSTI2026

First Search for Dark Sector 𝑒 + ⁢𝑒 − Explanations of the MiniBooNE Anomaly at MicroBooNE

We present MicroBooNE’s first search for dark sector 𝑒 + ⁢𝑒 − explanations of the long-standing MiniBooNE anomaly. The MiniBooNE anomaly has garnered significant attention over the past 20 years including previous MicroBooNE investigations into both anomalous electron and photon excesses, but its origin still remains unclear. In this Letter, we provide the first direct test of dark sector models in which dark neutrinos, produced through neutrino-induced scattering, decay into missing energy and visible 𝑒 + ⁢𝑒 − pairs comprising the MiniBooNE anomaly. Many such models have recently gained traction as a viable solution to the anomaly while evading past bounds. Using an exposure of 6.87 × 10 20 protons-on-target in the Booster Neutrino Beam, we implement a selection targeting forward-going, coherently produced 𝑒 + ⁢𝑒 − events. After unblinding, we observe 95 events, which we compare with the constrained background-only prediction of 69.7 ±17.3. This analysis sets the world’s first direct limits on these dark sector models and, at the 95% confidence level, excludes the entirety of the single dark neutrino and majority of the dual dark neutrino, parameter space that is viable as a solution to the MiniBooNE anomaly.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Search for new physics in final states with semivisible jets or anomalous signatures using the ATLAS detector

A search is presented for hadronic signatures of beyond the Standard Model (BSM) physics, with an emphasis on signatures of a strongly coupled hidden dark sector accessed via resonant production of a 𝑍′ mediator. The ATLAS experiment dataset collected at the Large Hadron Collider from 2015 to 2018 is used, consisting of proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{𝑠}$ = 13 TeV and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 140 fb −1 . The 𝑍′ mediator is considered to decay to two dark quarks, which each hadronize and decay to showers containing both dark and Standard Model particles, producing a topology of interacting and noninteracting particles within a jet known as “semivisible.” Machine learning methods are used to select these dark showers and reject the dominant background of mismeasured multijet events, including an anomaly detection approach to preserve broad sensitivity to a variety of BSM topologies. A resonance search is performed by fitting the transverse mass spectrum based on a functional form background estimation. No significant excess over the expected background is observed. Results are presented as limits on the production cross section of semivisible jet signals, parametrized by the fraction of invisible particles in the decay and the 𝑍′ mass, and by quantifying the significance of any generic Gaussian-shaped mass peak in the anomaly region.

particle dark matter↗

NASA NTRS1988

The debate over the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary

Large-body impact on the Earth is a rare but indisputable geologic process. The impact rate is approximately known from objects discovered in Earth-crossing orbits and from the statistics of craters on the Earth's surface. Tektite and microtektite strewn fields constitute unmistakable ejecta deposits that can be due only to large-body impacts. The Cretaceous-Tertiary (K-T) boundary coincides with an unusually severe biological trauma, and this stratigraphic horizon is marked on a worldwide basis by anomalous concentrations of noble metals in chondritic proportions, mineral spherules with relict quench-crystallization textures, and mineral and rock grains showing shock deformation. These features are precisely compatible with an impact origin. Although only impact explains all the types of K-T boundary evidence, the story may not be as simple as once thought. The original hypothesis envisioned one large impact, triggering one great extinction. Newer evidence hints at various complications. Different challenges are faced by the occupants of each apex of a three-cornered argument over the K-T event. Proponents of a non-impact explanation must show that the evidence fits their preferred model better than it fits the impact scenario. Proponents of the single impact-single extinction view must explain away the complications. Proponents of a more complex impact crisis must develop a reasonable scenario which honors the new evidence.

Alvarez, W.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Electron-positron, parton-parton, and photon-photon production of τ -lepton pairs: Anomalous magnetic and electric dipole moments spin effects

Anomalous contributions to the electric and magnetic dipole moments of the τ lepton from new physics scenarios have brought renewed interest in the development of new charge-parity violating signatures in τ -pair production at Belle II energies, and also at higher energies of the Large Hadron Collider and the Future Circular Collider. In this paper, we discuss the effects of spin correlations, including transverse degrees of freedom, in the τ -pair production and decay. These studies include calculating analytical formulas, obtaining numerical results, and building semirealistic observables sensitive to the transverse spin correlations induced by the dipole moments of the τ lepton. The effects of such anomalous contributions to the dipole moments are introduced on top of precision simulations of e − e + → τ − τ + , q q ¯ → τ − τ + and γ γ → τ − τ + processes, involving multibody final states. The τ decays are simulated along with radiative corrections, in particular electroweak box contributions of W W and Z Z exchanges are taken into account. Respective extensions of the Standard Model amplitudes and the reweighting algorithms are implemented into the Monte Carlo, which is used to simulate τ -pair production in e − e + collisions, and the aupinner program, which is used to reweight events with τ pair produced in p p collisions. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

First Search for Dark Sector e+e- Explanations of the MiniBooNE Anomaly at MicroBooNE

We present MicroBooNE’s first search for dark sector e⁺e⁻ explanations of the long-standing MiniBooNE anomaly. The MiniBooNE anomaly has garnered significant attention over the past 20 years including previous MicroBooNE investigations into both anomalous electron and photon excesses, but its origin still remains unclear. In this talk we present the first direct test of dark sector models in which dark neutrinos, produced through neutrino-induced scattering, decay into missing energy and visible e⁺e⁻ pairs that could comprise the MiniBooNE anomaly. Many such models have recently gained traction as a viable solution to the anomaly while evading past bounds. Using an exposure of 6.87×$10^20$ protons-on-target in the Booster Neutrino Beam, we implement a selection targeting forward-going, coherently produced e⁺e⁻ events to study this possibility. This talk will present the results of this targeted dark sector search and summarize the latest three recently presented MicroBooNE photon results, along with discussing their connection to this result.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Empirical Indicators of Transmission Value in the Southeast United States

Concurrent differences in energy price between different parts of the electric grid are a key indicator of the value of additional transmission. In areas without a wholesale electricity market, such as the Southeast, an alternative indicator to price is the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s (FERC) system lambda data. This economic metric represents the minimized marginal production costs of thermal generators, including fuel and other variable operation and maintenance expenses. Balancing Authorities report a single system lambda for their entire balancing area. Most Southeastern lambdas exhibit sufficient price variation to support a transmission valuation analysis, although incomplete accounting of congestion costs or scarcity rents during peak load hours may underestimate the true value of transmission capacity. With transmission value defined as the annual average hourly absolute price difference between two regions and FERC’s system lambda data used as a price proxy, we find the following results in the Southeast region during 2012-2023 (reported in $\$2024$/MWh): Intra‐regional findings: Annual averages historically span $\$2$–$\$28$/MWh and average $\$12$/MWh in SERTP and span $\$4$–$\$19$/MWh and average $\$9$/MWh in FRCC, disregarding transmission value driven by anomalous data. The ranges of transmission value reported here are large, spanning an order of magnitude in some cases. Much of this variation is driven by year-to-year changes, with 2022 having a particularly high intra-regional transmission value due to elevated natural gas prices. Inter‐regional corridors: Annual average transmission values across three broader regions range from $\$6$ to $\$28$/MWh with a long-term average of $\$11$/MWh. Much of the transmission value is concentrated in a small portion of hours. Across all regions, severe weather—particularly polar vortex events in January 2018, February 2021, and December 2022—drives the largest price spreads. Seasonal patterns also emerge, with summer afternoons and fall mornings contributing consistently to transmission value, as for example between MISO and SOCO in 2023.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1993

On nonsinusoidal waves at the Earth's magnetopause

We have examined International Sun Earth Explorer (ISEE) 1 and 2 data during an interval of multiple magnetopause crossings along the flanks of the tail on January 22, 1978. During the event the interplanetary magnetic field was mainly northward. We found that the surface waves on the magnetopause were nonsinusoidal with steepened sunward facing surfaces. This result is consistent with observations reported for an analogous event by Chen et al. (1993). The dawn-dusk electric field E in the low-latitude boundary layer was approx. 10 kV/R(sub E), which is much greater than the approx. 1 kV/R(sub E) dawn-dusk E field typical of the sunward convecting plasma sheet plasma. The ratio of the dawn-dusk E field in the LLBL to the dusk-dawn E in the magnetosheath was approx. 1/3. We propose that the magnetic field in the magnetosheath modulates the wave form in a way that may result in an anomalous transport of momentum across the magnetopause.

Chen, S.-H.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Terral De Vicuna, a Foehnlike Wind in Semiarid Northern Chile: Meteorological Aspects and Implications for the Fulfillment of Chill Requirements in Deciduous Fruit Trees

The terral de Vicuña is a warm and dry wind that flows down the Elqui Valley in north-central Chile typically at dawn and early morning. Given that most terral episodes occur in austral winter when chill accumulation by deciduous fruit trees proceeds, negative effects on agriculture may be expected. During 11 (2004-14) winters a meteorological characterization of terral winds and the assessment of their impact on chill accumulation, by the modified Utah Model and the Dynamic Model, were performed. Within this period, 67 terral days (TD) were identified as those in which nighttime to early morning wind direction and speed, air temperature, and relative humidity reached defined thresholds on an hourly basis (terral hours). Most frequent TD featured 6-9 consecutive terral hours; duration is considered here as a proxy for their intensity. Synoptic-scale meteorological analysis shows that 65% of moderate and strong terral events develop as a cold, migratory anticyclone drifts poleward of the study area, coinciding with the onset of a midtropospheric ridge over central Chile, bringing southwest winds on top of the Andes (approximately 500-hPa level). The remaining 35% are either associated with 500-hPa easterlies (foehn like), with prefrontal conditions ahead of a trough driving northwest 500-hPa winds, or with transitional 500-hPa westerlies.Assessments of chill accumulation during TD show that, although present average and cold winter conditions do not represent a major TD hazard to local agriculture, lower chill accumulation associated with anomalously high nocturnal temperatures could be significantly more important during present and future warmer winters.

agriculture↗

NASA NTRS2021

On the Development and Demise of the Fall 2019 Southeast U. S. Flash Drought: Links to an Extreme Positive IOD

Much of the southeast United States experienced record dry conditions during September of 2019, with the area in abnormally dry to exceptional drought conditions growing from 25% at the beginning of the month to 80% by the end of the month. The drought ended just as abruptlydue to above normal rain that fell during the second half of October. In this study we employed MERRA-2 and the GEOS-5 AGCM to diagnose the underlying causes of the drought’s onset, maintenance, and demise. The basic approach involves performing a series of AGCM simulations in which the model is constrained to remain close to MERRA-2 over pre-specified areas that are external to the drought region. The start of the drought appears to have been forced by anomalous heating in the central/western tropical Pacific that resulted in low level anti-cyclonic flow and a tendency for descending motion over much of the southeast. An anomalous ridge associated with a Rossby wave train (emanating from the Indian Ocean region) is found to be the main source of the most intense temperature and precipitation anomalies that develop over the southeast during the last week of September. A second Rossby wave train (emanating from the same region) is responsible for the substantial rain that fell during the second half of October to end the drought. The links to the Indian Ocean Dipole (with record positive values) as well a sa waning El Nino allow some speculation as to the likelihood of similar events occurring in the future.

Siegfried D Schubert↗