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DOE OSTI2018

Balancing Needs Assessment Using Advanced Probabilistic Forecasts

This paper presents a comprehensive approach to predict Balancing Authority (BA) regulation and load following requirements in order to improve BA control performance. In this paper the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s (PNNL) “ramp and uncertainty prediction tool (RUT) and day-ahead regulation prediction (DARP) tool” were upgraded to incorporate advanced probabilistic forecast information provided by AWS Truepower. The proposed methodology has been tested and validated using actual California Independent System Operator (CAISO) data. Simulation confirmed that integration probabilistic forecast information can reduce the predicted regulation range by about 12-31%. This means that BAs can procure fewer balancing resources without compromising their reliability and control performance requirements.

Regulation, Solar Generation, Wind Generation, Con↗

DOE OSTI2023

Representing the Future Role of Hydropower and Pumped Storage Hydropower (PSH) in Electricity Planning Tools

Existing tools for long-term electric sector planning struggle to represent hydropower's nuanced site-specific technical and operating characteristics, which depend on technical specifications as well as water management practices and regulations. As a result, long-term planning models and tools insufficiently characterize hydropower value and incentives, and they cannot fully represent the role hydropower can play in a future electricity system that could include a high penetration of variable wind and solar generation, battery storage, and other low-carbon technologies. This presentation demonstrates the culmination of a multi-year effort to enhance hydropower representations in electricity planning models at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), as part of the U.S. Department of Energy (USDOE) HydroWIRES Initiative. New modeling techniques are demonstrated using the NREL Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS), an open-access electric sector capacity expansion model used extensively in a wide range of technology deployment and integration analysis, including the 2016 USDOE Hydropower Vision. ReEDS uses a least-cost optimization approach to understand investment and operation of electricity generation, storage, and transmission technologies under future scenarios of electricity technology innovation, demand, policy, and other sectoral drivers. ReEDS was modified to better represent value and opportunities for both pumped storage hydropower (PSH) and hydropower systems without pumping. We incorporated a new national closed-loop PSH resource and cost assessment to explore new PSH deployment opportunities and added plant-level data to better represent the existing PSH fleet. New upgrade pathways enable opportunities for enhanced hydropower flexibility by adding pumps, upgrading dispatchability, increasing capacity, or increasing energy availability. The model was also modified to better represent the value of long-duration energy storage beyond diurnal time scales, allowing both hydropower and PSH to better balance energy supply and demand variations in high-renewable systems. These new features are demonstrated under reference and high-renewable futures and a range of sensitivity scenarios to understand which hydropower and PSH deployment and upgrade opportunities are the most attractive. These scenarios indicate potential for new closed-loop PSH deployment and for hydropower flexibility improvements to have important impacts on long-term electricity system emissions and economic outcomes. Increasing flexibility of the existing hydropower fleet can reduce the need to invest in new flexible grid technologies and help achieve decarbonization goals. Systems with sufficient energy storage could also be valuable for balancing seasonal differences in renewable energy availability, particularly from solar energy. The methods developed for ReEDS and subsequent scenario results reveal important considerations for future hydropower and grid system planning, and all data and code is freely available in a public code repository for use throughout the hydropower industry.

capacity expansion↗

DOE OSTI2018

Is Corn Stover Harvest Predictable Using Farm Operation, Technology, and Management Variables?

Core Ideas Corn stover removal was not common in 2010. Crop sequences were similar for stover and non‐stover harvest farms. State‐level variation occurred in the relative size of farms removing corn stover. Soil erosion control measures were not frequently adopted by either farm group. Crop residue management, provision of animal feed or bedding, and increased income are potential reasons for harvesting corn ( Zea mays L.) stover. Reasons for not doing so include the need for crop residue to restore or increase soil organic matter, protect against wind and water erosion, and cycle plant nutrients. Bioenergy market development may increase the number of producers harvesting corn stover. Can farming practice data predict the likelihood for harvesting corn stover at a national scale? Farm operation, technology, and management variables from the 2010 Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS) of U.S. corn growers were compared between operations that removed corn stover and those that did not. Nationwide, stover was removed from approximately 6.3% of all corn operations, indicating stover harvest was not a common practice in 2010. Factors increasing the likelihood for stover harvest included producing feed corn, managing crop residues for pest control, and farmland ownership. Technology and conservation practice adoption rates were similar in both groups. Excessive stover removal can increase soil degradation. Both groups had erosion control adoption rates of ≤10%, which may provide an additional disincentive to harvest stover. Overall, the evaluated variables were similar between producers that did and did not harvest stover. This assessment provides a 2010 national baseline that can be used for future evaluations as bioenergy and bioproduct markets develop.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1985

Use of wind data in global modelling

The European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is producing operational global analyses every 6 hours and operational global forecasts every day from the 12Z analysis. How the wind data are used in the ECMWF golbal analysis is described. For each current wind observing system, its ability to provide initial conditions for the forecast model is discussed as well as its weaknesses. An assessment of the impact of each individual system on the quality of the analysis and the forecast is given each time it is possible. Sometimes the deficiencies which are pointed out are related not only to the observing system itself but also to the optimum interpolation (OI) analysis scheme; then some improvements are generally possible through ad hoc modifications of the analysis scheme and especially tunings of the structure functions. Examples are given. The future observing network over the North Atlantic is examined. Several countries, coordinated by WMO, are working to set up an 'Operational WWW System Evaluation' (OWSE), in order to evaluate the operational aspects of the deployment of new systems (ASDAR, ASAP). Most of the new systems are expected to be deployed before January 1987, and in order to make the best use of the available resources during the deployment phase, some network studies are carried out at the present time, by using simulated data for ASDAR and ASAP systems. They are summarized.

Pailleux, J.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Development of X-33/X-34 Aerothermodynamic Data Bases: Lessons Learned and Future Enhancements

A synoptic of programmatic and technical lessons learned in the development of aerothermodynamic data bases for the X-33 and X-34 programs is presented in general terms and from the perspective of the NASA Langley Research Center Aerothermodynamics Branch. The format used is that of the "aerothermodynamic chain," the links of which are personnel, facilities, models/test articles, instrumentation, test techniques, and computational fluid dynamics (CFD). Because the aerodynamic data bases upon which the X-33 and X-34 vehicles will fly are almost exclusively from wind tunnel testing, as opposed to CFD, the primary focus of the lessons learned is on ground-based testing. The period corresponding to the development of X-33 and X-34 aerothermodynamic data bases was challenging, since a number of other such programs (e.g., X-38, X-43) competed for resources at a time of downsizing of personnel, facilities, etc., outsourcing, and role changes as NASA Centers served as subcontractors to industry. The impact of this changing environment is embedded in the lessons learned. From a technical perspective, the relatively long times to design and fabricate metallic force and moment models, delays in delivery of models, and a lack of quality assurance to determine the fidelity of model outer mold lines (OML) prior to wind tunnel testing had a major negative impact on the programs. On the positive side, the application of phosphor thermography to obtain global, quantitative heating distributions on rapidly fabricated ceramic models revolutionized the aerothermodynamic optimization of vehicle OMLs, control surfaces, etc. Vehicle designers were provided with aeroheating information prior to, or in conjunction with, aerodynamic information early in the program, thereby allowing trades to be made with both sets of input; in the past only aerodynamic data were available as input. Programmatically, failure to include transonic aerodynamic wind tunnel tests early in the assessment phase led to delays in the optimization phase, as OMLs required modification to provide adequate transonic aerodynamic performance without sacrificing subsonic and hypersonic performance. Funding schedules for industry, based on technical milestones, also presented challenges to aerothermodynamics seeking optimum flying characteristics across the subsonic to hypersonic speed regimes and minimum aeroheating. This paper is concluded with a brief discussion of enhancements in ground-based testing/CFD capabilities necessary to partially/fully satisfy future requirements.

Miller, C. G.↗

DOE OSTI2015

Magnitude and Variability of Controllable Charge Capacity Provided by Grid Connected Plug-in Electric Vehicles

As market penetration of plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) increases over time, the number of PEVs charging on the electric grid will also increase. As the number of PEVs increases, their ability to collectively impact the grid increases. The idea of a large body of PEVs connected to the grid presents an intriguing possibility. If utilities can control PEV charging, it is possible that PEVs could act as a distributed resource to provide grid services. The technology required to control charging is available for modern PEVs. However, a system for wide-spread implementation of controllable charging, including robust communication between vehicles and utilities, is not currently present. Therefore, the value of controllable charging must be assessed and weighed against the cost of building and operating such as system. In order to grasp the value of PEV charge control to the utility, the following must be understood: 1. The amount of controllable energy and power capacity available to the utility 2. The variability of the controllable capacity from day to day and as the number of PEVs in the market increases.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Final Technical Report: Renewable Energy Feasibility Study and Resources Assessment

In March 2011, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) awarded White Pine County, Nevada, a grant to assess the feasibility of renewable resource-related economic development activities in the area. The grant project included a public outreach and training component and was to include a demonstration project; however, the demonstration project was not completed due to lack of identification of an entity willing to locate a project in White Pine County. White Pine County completed the assessment of renewable resources and a feasibility study on the potential for a renewable energy-focused economic sector within the County. The feasibility study concluded "all resources studied were present and in sufficient quantity and quality to warrant consideration for development" and there were varying degrees of potential economic impact based on the resource type and project size. The feasibility study and its components were to be used as tools to attract potential developers and other business ventures to the local market. White Pine County also marketed the County’s resources to the renewable energy business community in an effort to develop contracts for demonstration projects. The County also worked to develop partnerships with local educational institutions, including the White Pine County School District, conducted outreach and training for the local community.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2021

The implications of uncertain renewable resource potentials for global wind and solar electricity projections

Studies exploring long-term energy system transitions rely on resource cost-supply curves derived from estimates of renewable energy (RE) potentials to generate wind and solar power projections. However, estimates of RE potentials are characterized by large uncertainties stemming from methodological assumptions that vary across studies, including factors such as the suitability of land and the performance and configuration of technology. Based on a synthesis of modeling approaches and parameter values used in prior studies, we explore the implications of these uncertain assumptions for onshore wind and solar photovoltaic electricity generation projections globally using the Global Change Analysis Model. We show that variability in parametric assumptions related to land use (e.g. land suitability) are responsible for the most substantial uncertainty in both wind and solar generation projections. Additionally, assumptions about the average turbine installation density and turbine technology are responsible for substantial uncertainty in wind generation projections. Under scenarios that account for climate impacts on wind and solar energy, we find that these parametric uncertainties are far more significant than those emerging from differences in climate models and scenarios in a global assessment, but uncertainty surrounding climate impacts (across models and scenarios) have significant effects regionally, especially for wind. Our analysis suggests the need for studies focusing on long-term energy system transitions to account for this uncertainty.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Resilience Metrics and Framework for Distributed Wind Presentation

This presentation communicates information about the MIRACL project Resilience Metrics report and Resilience Framework report. It was created for the 2021 MIRACL advisory board meeting. We propose a three-tiered approach for the resilience framework. At the top level, we consider the time horizons on which resilience will be evaluated and executed. At the middle level, we consider the core functions of resilience, which span across the time horizons. At the lower level, we consider the process steps that correspond to implementing practices for resilience in each of the core functions. The framework considers three time horizons in order to enable organizations to assess and improve their system’s resilience throughout its lifecycle. We call these time horizons the planning, operational, and future stages. The planning stage uses organizational needs and current system evaluation to prepare for potential hazards. The operational stage seeks to execute responses to hazards as prudently and efficiently as possible to maintain system resilience. The future stage seeks to improve on current system resilience and feeds back into the planning stage to promote continuous improvement. While all three time horizons are important when considering a specific topic, the planning and evaluation phase (i.e., what is done in advance of the event) is critical in defining a system’s resilience characteristics and in outlining how a system responds to an event. This framework intentionally emphasizes the planning stage to highlight the overarching emphasis of this effort, not to imply that the other two time-related horizons (i.e., operational and change the future) are less important. The core functions in the framework are identify, prepare, detect, adapt, and recover. These five functions stem from a rigorous analysis of definitions used across the industry, and they represent the core capabilities that an organization must have to enable lifecycle resilience. Within each core function, process steps are described that help walk an organization through the information gathering, evaluation, decision-making, and implementation processes they will need to ensure their resilience goals are maintained throughout the system and the system lifecycle. Also highlighted in the figure is the concept that a resilience framework should be cyclical in nature. Because a system’s resilience is based on finite resources and time, it must continually evolve through this framework’s risk management and capital investment steps at an appropriate level of scope and pace.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Mortality correlates with tree functional traits across a wood density gradient in the Central Amazon

Introduction: Understanding the mechanisms of tree mortality in tropical ecosystems remains challenging, in part due to the high diversity of tree species and the inherently stochastic nature of mortality. Plant functional traits offer a mechanistic link between plant physiology and performance, yet their ability to predict growth and mortality remains poorly understood. Given recent increases in tree mortality rates in the Amazon forest following extreme drought and wind events, we tested if lower wood density and acquisitive plant functional traits were associated with increased growth and mortality for common co-occurring trees in the Central Amazon. Methods: Seventeen trees of different species with similar sizes but a range in wood density (WD) and wood traits were felled, then assessed for 27 different individual functional parameters, including whole tree architecture, stem xylem anatomical and hydraulic traits and leaf traits. Traits of the individual trees were related to stand-level growth and mortality rates collected periodically over 30 years from nearby permanent inventory plots. Results: Higher wood density was associated with smaller leaf size, lower foliar base cations, lower stem water content and sapwood fraction, in agreement with the fast-slow plant economics spectrum. Lower wood density was associated with more acquisitive characteristics with greater hydraulic capacity and foliar nutrient concentrations, correlating with greater growth and mortality rates. Discussion: Our results show that lower wood density is part of a coordinated suite of traits linked to high resource acquisition, fast growth, and increased mortality risk, providing a functional framework for predicting species performance and forest vulnerability under future climate stress.

demographics↗

DOE OSTI2023

Development of a Benchmark Eddy Flux Evapotranspiration Dataset for Evaluation of Satellite-Driven Evapotranspiration Models Over the CONUS

A large sample of ground-based evapotranspiration (ET) measurements made in the United States, primarily from eddy covariance systems, were post-processed to produce a benchmark ET dataset. The dataset was produced primarily to support the intercomparison and evaluation of the OpenET satellite-based remote sensing ET (RSET) models and could also be used to evaluate ET data from other models and approaches. OpenET is a web-based service that makes field-delineated and pixel-level ET estimates from well-established RSET models readily available to water managers, agricultural producers, and the public. The benchmark dataset is composed of flux and meteorological data from a variety of providers covering native vegetation and agricultural settings. Flux footprint predictions were developed for each station and included static flux footprints developed based on average wind direction and speed, as well as dynamic hourly footprints that were generated with a physically based model of upwind source area. The two footprint prediction methods were rigorously compared to evaluate their relative spatial coverage. Data from all sources were post-processed in a consistent and reproducible manner including data handling, gap-filling, temporal aggregation, and energy balance closure correction. The resulting dataset included 243,048 daily and 5,284 monthly ET values from 194 stations, with all data falling between 1995 and 2021. We assessed average daily energy imbalance using 172 flux sites with a total of 193,021 days of data, finding that overall turbulent fluxes were understated by about 12% on average relative to available energy. Multiple linear regression analyses indicated that daily average latent energy flux may be typically understated slightly more than sensible heat flux. This dataset was developed to provide a consistent reference to support evaluation of RSET data being developed for a wide range of applications related to water accounting and water resources management at field to watershed scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Preliminary Steps in Developing Rapid Aero Modeling Technology

The Rapid Aero Modeling (RAM) approach is a method to efficiently and automatically obtain aerodynamic models during testing, significantly saving time and resources. Motivation for this technology results from demand for experimental efficiency and model fidelity that has increased with growing aircraft complexity and aerodynamic nonlinearities. These issues are typical in the responses presented by a class of vehicles categorized as Urban Air Mobility aircraft where many features from both airplane and rotorcraft are present. For UAM configurations, with typically many more factors than conventional aircraft, traditional test methods can lead to increased costs and missed interactions. RAM guides the test to obtain high-fidelity, statistically rigorous aircraft models, and the approach is applicable to computational, ground, or flight-test experiments. It combines concepts from Design of Experiment theory and Aircraft System Identification theory that allow the user the freedom to choose, in advance of the test, a specific level of fidelity typically, in terms of prediction error. RAM only collects data required to meet the user-specified fidelity and fidelity is only limited by the facility and test article capabilities. An initial wind tunnel test to support development of RAM was conducted to assess potential metrics, algorithms, and procedures. This paper presents results from initial tests for the development of RAM technology and highlights some of the unique features of RAM applied toa conventional configuration during a ground-based, static, wind-tunnel test.

Patrick C Murphy↗

DOE OSTI2024

Comparing net zero pathways across the Atlantic A model inter-comparison exercise between the Energy Modeling Forum 37 and the European Climate and Energy Modeling Forum

Europe and North America account for 32 % of current carbon emissions. Due to distinct legacy systems, energy infrastructure, socioeconomic development, and energy resource endowment, both regions have different policy and technological pathways to reach net zero by the mid-century. Against this background, our paper examines the results from the net zero emission scenarios for Europe and North America that emerged from the collaboration of the European and American Energy Modeling Forums. Here, in our analysis, we perform an inter-comparison of various integrated assessments and bottom-up energy system models. A clear qualitative consensus emerges on five main points. First, Europe and the United States reach net zero targets with electrification, demand-side reductions, and carbon capture and sequestration technologies. Second, the use of carbon capture and sequestration is more predominant in the United States due to a steeper decarbonization schedule. Third, the buildings sector is the easiest to electrify in both regions. Fourth, the industrial sector is the hardest to electrify in the United States and transportation in Europe. Fifth, in both regions, the transition in the energy mix is driven by the substitution of coal and natural gas with solar and wind, but to a different extent.

100 % renewables↗

NASA NTRS2017

A CFD Case Study of a Fan Stage with Split Flow Path Subject to Total Pressure Distortion Inflow

This report is the documentation of the work performed under the Hypersonic Project of the NASA's Fundamental Aeronautics Program. It was funded through Task Number NNC10E444T under GESS-2 Contract NNC06BA07B. The objective of the task is to develop advanced computational tools for the simulation of multi-stage turbomachinery in support of aeropropulsion. This includes work elements in extending the TURBO code and validating the multi-stage URANS (Unsteady Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes) simulation results with the experimental data. The unsteady CFD (Computation Fluid Dynamics) calculations were performed in full wheel mode with and without screen generated total pressure distortion at the computational inflow boundary, as well as in single passage phase lag mode for uniform inflow. The experimental data were provided by NASA from the single stage RTA (Revolutionary Turbine Accelerator) fan test program.Significant non-uniform flow condition at the fan-face of the aeropropulsion system is frequentlyencountered in many of the advanced aerospace vehicles. These propulsion systems can be eithera podded or an embedded design employed in HWB (Hybrid Wing Body) airframe concept. It isalso a topic of interest in military applications, in which advanced air vehicles have already deployedsome form of embedded propulsion systems in their design because of the requirementsof compact and low observable inlets. Even in the conventional airframe/engine design, the fancould operate under such condition when the air vehicle is undergoing rapid maneuvering action.It is believed that a better understanding of the fan’s aerodynamic and aeromechanical responseto this type of operating condition or off design operation would be beneficial to designing distortiontolerant blades for improved engine operability.The objective for this research is to assess the capability of turbomachinery code as an analysistool in understanding the effects and evaluating the impact of flow distortion on the aerodynamicand aeromechanical performance of the fan in advanced propulsion systems. Results from thetesting of an advanced fan stage released by NASA are available and will be used here for CFDcode validation. The experiment was performed at NASA’s high speed compressor facility aspart of the RTA (Revolutionary Turbine Accelerator) demonstration project, a joint effort ofNASA Glenn Research Center and GE Aircraft Engines in developing an advanced Mach 4TBCC (Turbine Based Combined Cycle) turbofan/ramjet engine for access to space. Part of thetest was to assess the aerodynamic performance and operability of the fan stage under nonuniforminflow condition. Various flow distortion patterns were created at the fan-face by manipulatingsets of screens placed upstream of the wind tunnel. Measurements at the fan-face willprovide the necessary distortion flow information as the inflow boundary condition for the CFDin a full wheel simulation. Therefore the purpose of this work is to demonstrate the NASA supportedmulti-stage turbomachinery code, TURBO [1-5], in the aerodynamic performance analysisof a modern fan design operating under off design condition, and in particular to validate theCFD results with the RTA fan test data.A brief description of the RTA fan rig configuration is given in the next section, explaining onhow flow distortion were measured in the test and constructed for the CFD at the fan-face. It isfollowed by a section summarizing previous CFD work performed at NASA relevant to the currentfan configuration. A short description of the TURBO code is given next, followed by detailsin the computational model of the fan rig, the required computing resources, and the numericalprocedure for the simulations. The CFD results are presented in the discussion section and finallyconcluding remarks are summarized.

Fan Stage↗

DOE OSTI2022

Liquid Salt Combined-Cycle Pilot Plant Design

The work described in this report is responsive to the Office of Fossil Energy program ‘Energy Storage for Fossil Power Generation.’ This Phase I report has been prepared by Pintail Power LLC, with support from Nexant ECA, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and Southern Company Services as a deliverable for the U.S. Department of Energy for NETL Award DE-FE-00320016. The Liquid Salt Combined Cycle™ (LSCC™) technology provides large-scale energy storage integrated with Fossil Electric Generating Units (FEGUs) to meet critical needs in the energy transition by providing: • the lowest cost large-scale storage for time-shifting of renewable energy, • superior fuel efficiency to reduce GHGs from dispatchable resources, • flexible capacity and ramping to balance variability of wind and solar resources, • essential grid stability services to assure reliability of a low-carbon grid. The LSCC approach: • employs equipment that has already been proven in utility service, • uses safe, non-toxic, non-degrading, perpetual-life storage medium, • leverages and repurposes existing FEGU assets, • expands the value stack of energy storage to reduce market, financing, and commodity risks. Pintail Power has developed the LSCC technology to meet the need for reliable, efficient, and cost-effective integration of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) into a low-carbon electric grid by coupling proven thermal energy storage with proven gas turbines, steam turbines, and heat transfer equipment. This novel approach is intended to address the key issues facing the grid and operators of renewable and fossil generating units including: • Overgeneration and curtailment of renewables, • Need for fast ramping dispatchable resources, • Improved efficiency and flexibility of fossil units, • Additional peaking capacity to support electrification of transportation and heating, • Provision of reliability services to support high penetration of VRE, especially synchronous inertia and fast frequency response. A Technology Readiness assessment by EPRI confirmed that LSCC technology consists of commercially proven hardware used in industrial and utility applications. Although the novel LSCC approach has not yet been demonstrated as a complete system, interfaces between major components have been conservatively specified. A Phase III pilot is planned to demonstrate equipment integration and operation. The patented innovation is removal of the evaporator section from the exhaust heat recovery system, with the evaporation performed by stored energy in a separate steam generator. This arrangement couples renewable and fossil power generation via long-duration energy storage to deliver cost, performance, and operational synergies, including superior charging and discharging flexibility, reduced fuel consumption and lower CO 2 emissions compared to conventional Combined Cycle Power Plants, and low-cost, large-scale energy storage. The LSCC technology is composed of proven equipment integrated with gas turbine exhaust heat in a novel system. During charging, electric heaters raise the salt temperature as it flows from the Cold Salt Tank to the Hot Salt Tank. During discharging, hot salt produces steam from feedwater that is heated with gas turbine exhaust, which also superheats steam to drive a steam turbine. LSCC technology can be added to any combustion-turbine to integrate renewable energy, provide needed grid services, and increase the value of fossil electric generating units based on the technology’s following attributes: • Long-duration storage enables time-shifting of VRE to avoid curtailment and impairment of renewable assets. • Long storage duration combined with fast-charging capability increases arbitrage opportunities by storing more energy when the price is low and discharging more hours when the price is high. • Long storage duration allows resource adequacy to be supplied across multiple days to increase reliability and reduce risk. • The stored energy reduces fuel heat rate and GHG emissions, and increases merit, so the LSCC dispatches earlier and longer to increase the plant’s capacity factor and asset value. • The stored energy enables pre-heating and startup of the steam cycle, without operating the gas turbine, to enable fast startup and ramping when dispatched for discharge. • The steam turbine can operate without the gas turbine so it can provide valuable synchronous inertia during charging without consuming fuel. • Fast frequency response and regulation services can be provided during charging using solid-state heater and pump controls to vary the charge power input in response to grid signals. • The LSCC system can be configured for resilience including black start, islanded/micro-grid operation, and even self-recharging of storage using either gas turbine power or gas turbine exhaust heat. The commercialization plan is to add LSCC technology to existing simple cycle gas turbine power plants with the 50MW GE LM6000 aero-derivative gas turbine as the reference design basis. A Techno-economic assessment of the reference design evaluated the benefits (Levelized Avoided Cost of Energy) and costs (Levelized Cost of Energy). The plant definition included all major systems and budgetary vendor quotes. Pintail Power and NexantECA developed the overall cost estimate for the LSCC plant up to the total plant cost level, following the DOE-NETL cost estimate guidelines at AACE Class 3 (-20%/+30%). This includes the equipment cost, bulk material, direct and indirect labor costs to arrive at the bare erected cost. Engineering costs are factored from the BEC and added to it to arrive at the EPC cost. Process and project contingencies were then factored from the EPC cost and rolled-up to yield the total plant cost of $\$$184 million for 1746 MWh of discharge electricity. • At $\$$105/kWh, the reference plant costs less than any of the Energy Storage Systems evaluated by PNNL in 2020 for the Energy Storage Grand Challenge. Operations and Maintenance cost estimates were scaled from combined cycle practice, assuming that the LSCC unit was co-located with and sharing some labor expense with other units, to arrive at $\$$2.2 million per year. Plant economics were evaluated using prices from the ERCOT Day-Ahead Market for calendar year 2019 (excluding the market disruptions from the COVID pandemic and the February 2020 deep freeze event). Assuming economic dispatch in the ERCOT Day-Ahead market, the reference plant capacity factor would have discharged for 2777 hours at 91.9 MW, a 31.66% capacity factor, with a marginal cost of $\$$25.59/MWh, and a LACE of $\$$82.41/MWh. Fixed charges were calculated according to EIA guidelines to arrive at an LCOE of $\$$83.48. The benefit-to-cost ratio of 0.99 suggests that the reference plant would have been cost-effective and competitive in the market. EPRI interviewed selected utilities to gauge the need for, applicability of and interest in the LSCC system. Several utilities are currently managing increased load growth along with the inclusion of increasing levels of renewable generation, putting pressure on conventional generation by requiring increased turndown requirements and ultimately lower capacity factors. All of the utilities interviewed have CO 2 reduction targets in the 2030-2050 timeframe that will severely limit the participation of fossil generation and require better utilization of carbon free generation. While there is limited opportunity for storage in the current markets, the utilities interviewed stated that there will be a substantial need for long duration energy storage in the future given the expected trends. Utilizing an energy storage system will generally be preferred over new gas capacity in some cases, with the capabilities of the LSCC system being a potential option for retrofit to existing simple cycle gas turbine units, allowing them to deliver greater participation in the market with lower carbon intensity. A technology gap assessment and technology maturation plan identified a pilot-scale demonstration as the final step before commercialization. Key gaps to be addressed during the Phase II FEED (Front-End Engineering Design) are component selection and design, commissioning procedures, and operational procedures and the control system for LSCC charging and discharging. The project team has been expanded to include Wood Group PLC as EPC. The proposed Phase II work leads to a pilot-scale engineering demonstration (TRL 6) to be conducted at Southern Company’s Plant Rowan, where the prototype system will perform “all the functions that will be required of the operational system.” The proposed pilot will facilitate commercialization (TRL-9) by scale-up to utility-scale systems integrated with peaking GTs or directly to facility scale systems using industrial GTs. The conceptual design for the pilot plant focuses on the novel integration aspects of LSCC technology. A slipstream of gas turbine exhaust will feed a waste heat recovery unit coupled to a molten salt steam generator heated by stored energy. The pilot is intended to demonstrate all key operating modes of the LSCC technology during charging, discharging and standby. The pilot equipment will be approximately one-seventh scale of the LM6000 commercial target and is expected to have commercial off-ramp potential for facility-scale applications.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2021

Electrification Futures Study: Power Systems Operation with Newly Electrified and Flexible Loads

The Electrification Futures Study (EFS) is a multi-year study designed to analyze the impacts of widespread electrification in the U.S. energy system. In this webinar we present the detailed power systems operational analysis from the final report in the EFS series. For this analysis, we simulate multiple 2050 power systems for the conterminous United States to assess how variations in the magnitude and shape of electricity demand driven by electrification, and the extent of load participation to more-actively provide grid services, might impact the hourly operation, operational costs, and emissions of various power systems in 2050. The impacts of electrification and demand flexibility are overlayed across systems with significantly greater penetrations of variable renewable energy than today. Overall, we find that the high electrification scenarios envisioned in the EFS with significant VRE penetration (66% of annual national generation) can be operated to meet future increased levels of electrified demand. We also find that demand-side flexibility can enhance operational efficiency and reduce overall annual production costs by $5-$10 billion. The complementary relationship between flexible electric vehicle charging loads and solar generation is particularly pronounced, but in the absence of demand-side flexibility electrification can lead to increased wind and solar curtailment. By helping to reduce renewable curtailment, flexibility can also reduce power sector CO2 emissions. The analysis highlights the value of increased integration and coordination of demand- and supply-side resources in future electric system planning and operations—particularly under high electrification futures.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

NASA NTRS2007

Earth Observations to Assess Impact of Hurricane Katrina on John C. Stennis Space Center

The peril from hurricanes to Space Operations Centers is real and is forecast to continue; Katrina, Rita, and Wilma of 2005 and Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne of 2004 are sufficient motivation for NASA to develop a multi-Center plan for preparedness and response. As was demonstrated at SSC (Stennis Space Center) in response to Hurricane Katrina, NASA Centers are efficiently activated as local command centers, playing host to Federal and State agencies and first responders to coordinate and provide evacuation, relocation, response, and recovery activities. Remote sensing decision support provides critical insight for managing NASA infrastructure and for assisting Center decision makers. Managers require geospatial information to manage the federal city. Immediately following Katrina, SSC s power and network connections were disabled, hardware was inoperative, technical staff was displaced and/or out of contact, and graphical decision support tools were non-existent or less than fully effective. Despite this circumstance, SSC EOC (Emergency Operations Center) implemented response operations to assess damage and to activate recovery plans. To assist Center Managers, the NASA ASP (Applied Sciences Program) made its archive of high-resolution data over the site available. In the weeks and months after the immediate crisis, NASA supplemented this data with high-resolution, post-Katrina imagery over SSC and much of the affected coastal areas. Much of the high-resolution imagery was made available through the Department of Defense Clear View contract and was distributed through U.S. Geological Survey Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science "Hurricane Katrina Disaster Response" Web site. By integrating multiple image data types with other information sources, ASP applied an all-source solutions approach to develop decision support tools that enabled managers to respond to critical issues, such as expedient access to infrastructure and deployment of resources, provision of temporary shelter, logistical control of critical supplies, and the mobilization and coordination of assets from ground crews to aircraft/airspace management. Furthermore, ASP developed information products that illustrate risks to SSC's infrastructure from surge, inundation, and flood. Current plans include developing wind-risk prototype products for refinement and adoption into EOC plans.

Graham, William D.↗

DOE OSTI2019

Climate impacts on hydropower in Colombia: A multi-model assessment of power sector adaptation pathways

There is uncertainty as to how climate change will affect hydropower generation in different regions of the world. In drying regions, impaired hydropower production could result in significant changes to the power sector implying new plants to be installed to make up for lost hydropower generation. In this article we apply two partial equilibrium models (TIAM-ECN and GCAM) and two general equilibrium models (Phoenix and MEG4C) to identify possible pathways of power sector adaptation for Colombia under climate change scenarios that reflect altered water inflow to hydropower reservoirs. Each model is run for two emissions policy scenarios and for a dry and moderate climate projection. Planned hydropower expansion for Colombia is insufficient to meet increased power demands as the country's economy grows; the contribution of hydropower to Colombia's power supply drops from ~65% currently to 30 - 50 % by 2050 depending on energy model and scenario. Climate change reduces this by a further 5 - 10 % under the dry climate projection. Climate-driven losses in hydropower will be compensated by an expansion of alternative technologies, which vary significantly across models. When climate policy is implemented, three distinct pathways emerge: expanding the electricity production from solar and wind energy (TIAM-ECN); reducing overall power demand hence exploiting savings and efficiencies (Phoenix and MEG4C); and expanding the use of fossil resources—primarily natural gas— complemented with carbon dioxide capture and storage (GCAM).

Arango, Santiago↗