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Shock-tunnel combustor testing for hypersonic vehicles

Proposed configurations for the next generation of transatmospheric vehicles will rely on air breathing propulsion systems during all or part of their mission. At flight Mach numbers greater than about 7 these engines will operate in the supersonic combustion ramjet mode (scramjet). Ground testing of these engine concepts above Mach 8 requires high pressure, high enthalpy facilities such as shock tunnels and expansion tubes. These impulse, or short duration facilities have test times on the order of a millisecond, requiring high speed instrumentation and data systems. One such facility ideally suited for scramjet testing is the NASA-Ames 16-Inch shock tunnel, which over the last two years has completed a series of tests for the NASP (National Aero-Space Plane) program at simulated flight Mach numbers ranging from 12-16. The focus of the experimental programs consisted of a series of classified tests involving a near-full scale hydrogen fueled scramjet combustor model in the semi-free jet method of engine testing whereby the compressed forebody flow ahead of the cowl inlet is reproduced (see appendix A). The AIMHYE-1 (Ames Integrated Modular Hypersonic Engine) test entry for the NASP program was completed in April 1993, while AIMHYE-2 was completed in May 1994. The test entries were regarded as successful, resulting in some of the first data of its kind on the performance of a near full scale scramjet engine at Mach 12-16. The data was distributed to NASP team members for use in design system verification and development. Due to the classified nature of the hardware and data, the data reports resulting from this work are classified and have been published as part of the NASP literature. However, an unclassified AIAA paper resulted from the work and has been included as appendix A. It contains an overview of the test program and a description of some of the important issues.

Loomis, Mark P.↗

Three-Dimensional Flow Field Measurements in a Transonic Turbine Cascade

Three-dimensional flow field measurements are presented for a large scale transonic turbine blade cascade. Flow field total pressures and pitch and yaw flow angles were measured at an inlet Reynolds number of 1.0 x 10(exp 6) and at an isentropic exit Mach number of 1.3 in a low turbulence environment. Flow field data was obtained on five pitchwise/spanwise measurement planes, two upstream and three downstream of the cascade, each covering three blade pitches. Three-hole boundary layer probes and five-hole pitch/yaw probes were used to obtain data at over 1200 locations in each of the measurement planes. Blade and endwall static pressures were also measured at an inlet Reynolds number of 0.5 x 10(exp 6) and at an isentropic exit Mach number of 1.0. Tests were conducted in a linear cascade at the NASA Lewis Transonic Turbine Blade Cascade Facility. The test article was a turbine rotor with 136 deg of turning and an axial chord of 12.7 cm. The flow field in the cascade is highly three-dimensional as a result of thick boundary layers at the test section inlet and because of the high degree of flow turning. The large scale allowed for very detailed measurements of both flow field and surface phenomena. The intent of the work is to provide benchmark quality data for CFD code and model verification.

Giel, P. W.↗

Numerical modeling of HgCdTe solidification: Effects of phase diagram, double-diffusion convection and microgravity level

A numerical model of HgCdTe solidification was implemented using finite the element code FIDAP. Model verification was done using both experimental data and numerical test problems. The model was used to evaluate possible effects of double-diffusion convection in molten material, and microgravity level on concentration distribution in the solidified HgCdTe. Particular attention was paid to incorporation of HgCdTe phase diagram. It was found, that below a critical microgravity amplitude, the maximum convective velocity in the melt appears virtually independent on the microgravity vector orientation. Good agreement between predicted interface shape and an interface obtained experimentally by quenching was achieved. The results of numerical modeling are presented in the form of video film.

Bune, Andris V.↗

Absolute And Convective Instability and Splitting of a Liquid Jet at Microgravity

The objective is to establish a definitive role of the capillary, viscous, and inertial forces at a liquid-gas interface in the absence of gravity by using the fluid dynamics problem of the stability of a liquid jet as a vehicle. The objective is achieved by reexamining known theories and new theories that can be verified completely only in microgravity. The experiments performed in the microgravity facility at NASA Glenn Research Center enable the verification of the theory with experimental data. Of particular interest are (1) to capture for the first time the image of absolute instability, (2) to elucidate the fundamental difference in the physical mechanism of the drop and spray formation from a liquid jet, and (3) to find the origin of the newly discovered phenomenon of jet splitting on earth and in space.

Lin, S. P.↗

First XMM-Newton Observations of a Cataclysmic Variable II: Spectral Studies of OY Car

We present XMM-Newton X-ray spectra of the disc accreting cataclysmic variable OY Car, which were obtained during the performance verification phase of the mission. These data were taken 4 days after a short outburst. In the EPIC spectra we find strong Iron K(beta) emission with weaker Iron K(alpha) emission together with Silicon and Sulphur lines. The spectra are best fitted with a three temperature plasma model with a partial covering absorber. Multiple temperature emission is confirmed by the emission lines seen in the RGS spectrum and the H/He like intensity ratio for Iron and Sulphur which imply temperatures of approx. 7keV and approx. 3keV respectively.

Ramsay, Gavin↗

Model Checking - My 27-Year Quest to Overcome the State Explosion Problem

Model Checking is an automatic verification technique for state-transition systems that are finite=state or that have finite-state abstractions. In the early 1980 s in a series of joint papers with my graduate students E.A. Emerson and A.P. Sistla, we proposed that Model Checking could be used for verifying concurrent systems and gave algorithms for this purpose. At roughly the same time, Joseph Sifakis and his student J.P. Queille at the University of Grenoble independently developed a similar technique. Model Checking has been used successfully to reason about computer hardware and communication protocols and is beginning to be used for verifying computer software. Specifications are written in temporal logic, which is particularly valuable for expressing concurrency properties. An intelligent, exhaustive search is used to determine if the specification is true or not. If the specification is not true, the Model Checker will produce a counterexample execution trace that shows why the specification does not hold. This feature is extremely useful for finding obscure errors in complex systems. The main disadvantage of Model Checking is the state-explosion problem, which can occur if the system under verification has many processes or complex data structures. Although the state-explosion problem is inevitable in worst case, over the past 27 years considerable progress has been made on the problem for certain classes of state-transition systems that occur often in practice. In this talk, I will describe what Model Checking is, how it works, and the main techniques that have been developed for combating the state explosion problem.

Clarke, Ed↗

The Development of Models for Carbon Dioxide Reduction Technologies for Spacecraft Air Revitalization

Through the respiration process, humans consume oxygen (O2) while producing carbon dioxide (CO2) and water (H2O) as byproducts. For long term space exploration, CO2 concentration in the atmosphere must be managed to prevent hypercapnia. Moreover, CO2 can be used as a source of oxygen through chemical reduction serving to minimize the amount of oxygen required at launch. Reduction can be achieved through a number of techniques. NASA is currently exploring the Sabatier reaction, the Bosch reaction, and co- electrolysis of CO2 and H2O for this process. Proof-of-concept experiments and prototype units for all three processes have proven capable of returning useful commodities for space exploration. All three techniques have demonstrated the capacity to reduce CO2 in the laboratory, yet there is interest in understanding how all three techniques would perform at a system level within a spacecraft. Consequently, there is an impetus to develop predictive models for these processes that can be readily rescaled and integrated into larger system models. Such analysis tools provide the ability to evaluate each technique on a comparable basis with respect to processing rates. This manuscript describes the current models for the carbon dioxide reduction processes under parallel developmental efforts. Comparison to experimental data is provided were available for verification purposes.

Swickrath, Michael J.↗

A Next Generation Air Monitor: Combining Orion and ISS Requirements for a Common Major Constituent Analyzer

The Major Constituent Analyzer (MCA) is a mass spectrometer-based instrument designed to provide critical monitoring of six major atmospheric constituents; nitrogen, oxygen, hydrogen, carbon dioxide, methane, and water vapor on-board the International Space Station. The analyzer has been an integral part of the Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) since the station went on-line. The Orion Air Monitor (OAM) was derived from the MCA and heavily optimized for reduced mass, lower power, faster water vapor response, and maintenance-free operation. The resulting OAM is approximately the size of the analyzer portion of the MCA, orbital-replacement unit 02 (ORU 02), while incorporating the functions of three other modules: Data Processing and Communication (ORU 01), Verification Gas Assembly (ORU 08), and Low Voltage Power Supply (ORU 04). The overlap in MCA and OAM requirements makes it possible to derive a common Air Monitor design that spans both applications while minimally impacting the weight and power limits imposed by the Multipurpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV). Benefits to ISS include the retirement of ORUs 01, 04, and 08, reducing up-mass and eliminating EEE parts obsolescence issues through the extended ISS mission phases. Benefits to MPCV and future deployed habitats under the Constellation program include greater interchangeability across ECLSS subsystems. This paper discusses the results of the requirements development study, where a superset of ISS and Orion air monitoring requirements were distilled; evaluated against increases in OAM functionality, mass, and power; and traded-off where possible using simple operating mode modifications. A system architecture and preliminary design addressing the common requirements will be presented.

Burchfield, David E.↗

SCaN Testbed Software Development and Lessons Learned

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has developed an on-orbit, adaptable, Software Defined Radio (SDR)Space Telecommunications Radio System (STRS)-based testbed facility to conduct a suite of experiments to advance technologies, reduce risk, and enable future mission capabilities on the International Space Station (ISS). The SCAN Testbed Project will provide NASA, industry, other Government agencies, and academic partners the opportunity to develop and field communications, navigation, and networking technologies in the laboratory and space environment based on reconfigurable, SDR platforms and the STRS Architecture.The SDRs are a new technology for NASA, and the support infrastructure they require is different from legacy, fixed function radios. SDRs offer the ability to reconfigure on-orbit communications by changing software for new waveforms and operating systems to enable new capabilities or fix any anomalies, which was not a previous option. They are not stand alone devices, but required a new approach to effectively control them and flow data. This requires extensive software to be developed to utilize the full potential of these reconfigurable platforms. The paper focuses on development, integration and testing as related to the avionics processor system, and the software required to command, control, monitor, and interact with the SDRs, as well as the other communication payload elements. An extensive effort was required to develop the flight software and meet the NASA requirements for software quality and safety. The flight avionics must be radiation tolerant, and these processors have limited capability in comparison to terrestrial counterparts. A big challenge was that there are three SDRs onboard, and interfacing with multiple SDRs simultaneously complicatesd the effort. The effort also includes ground software, which is a key element for both the command of the payload, and displaying data created by the payload. The verification of the software was an extensive effort. The challenges of specifying a suitable test matrix with reconfigurable systems that offer numerous configurations is highlighted. Since the flight system testing requires methodical, controlled testing that limits risk, a nearly identical ground system to the on-orbit flight system was required to develop the software and write verification procedures before it was installed and tested on the flight system. The development of the SCAN testbed was an accelerated effort to meet launch constraints, and this paper discusses tradeoffs made to balance needed software functionality and still maintain the schedule. Future upgrades are discussed that optimize the avionics and allow experimenters to utilize the SCAN testbed potential.

radio communication↗

A Framework for Modelling Connective Tissue Changes in VIIP Syndrome

Insertion of astronauts into microgravity induces a cascade of physiological adaptations, notably including a cephalad fluid shift. Longer-duration flights carry an increased risk of developing Visual Impairment and Intracranial Pressure (VIIP) syndrome, a spectrum of ophthalmic changes including posterior globe flattening, choroidal folds, distension of the optic nerve sheath, kinking of the optic nerve and potentially permanent degradation of visual function. The slow onset of changes in VIIP, their chronic nature, and the similarity of certain clinical features of VIIP to ophthalmic findings in patients with raised intracranial pressure strongly suggest that: (i) biomechanical factors play a role in VIIP, and (ii) connective tissue remodeling must be accounted for if we wish to understand the pathology of VIIP. Our goal is to elucidate the pathophysiology of VIIP and suggest countermeasures based on biomechanical modeling of ocular tissues, suitably informed by experimental data, and followed by validation and verification. We specifically seek to understand the quasi-homeostatic state that evolves over weeks to months in space, during which ocular tissue remodeling occurs. This effort is informed by three bodies of work: (i) modeling of cephalad fluid shifts; (ii) modeling of ophthalmic tissue biomechanics in glaucoma; and (iii) modeling of connective tissue changes in response to biomechanical loading.

microgravity↗

Assessing Spontaneous Combustion Instability with Nonlinear Time Series Analysis

Considerable interest lies in the ability to characterize the onset of spontaneous instabilities within liquid propellant rocket engine (LPRE) combustion devices. Linear techniques, such as fast Fourier transforms, various correlation parameters, and critical damping parameters, have been used at great length for over fifty years. Recently, nonlinear time series methods have been applied to deduce information pertaining to instability incipiency hidden in seemingly stochastic combustion noise. A technique commonly used in biological sciences known as the Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis has been extended to the combustion dynamics field, and is introduced here as a data analysis approach complementary to linear ones. Advancing, a modified technique is leveraged to extract artifacts of impending combustion instability that present themselves a priori growth to limit cycle amplitudes. Analysis is demonstrated on data from J-2X gas generator testing during which a distinct spontaneous instability was observed. Comparisons are made to previous work wherein the data were characterized using linear approaches. Verification of the technique is performed by examining idealized signals and comparing two separate, independently developed tools.

Eberhart, C. J.↗

International Life Sciences Research Announcement 'Pick and Eat' Project Contributions

The International Life Sciences Research Announcement (ILSRA) is a grant which focuses on 'Pick and Eat' salad-crop productivity, nutritional value, and acceptability to supplement the International Space Station (ISS) food system. My contributions into this project were to 1) manage the Veggie chambers to maintain optimal plant growth and attend to any plant needs, 2) analyze data for the VEG-04 Science Verification Test to create a water delivery schedule for the astronauts aboard the ISS, and 3) assume the role as a VEG-04 Experiment Verification Test (EVT) 'pseudonaut' to confirm that all schedules and flight procedures produce quality results. The VEG-04 EVT will continue up until the last day of my internship. Additionally, I'm currently working on two independent research projects, both of which provide insight to potential plant growth hardware options for lunar or Martian surfaces. One of which is a cable culture hydroponics system (favorable in areas with highly limited space), and the other are two aeroponic systems (a subset of hydroponics which uses no media and misting as its delivery for water and nutrients). All independent projects are still being tested and therefore results are not yet established. Lastly, I have been in charge of maintaining the AeroGarden (Registered Trademark), a hydroponic-aeroponic hybrid system which is currently being investigated as a concept to the potential for minimizing human involvement in the process of growing plants. This has the potential to play a major role in future technological project designs for spaceflight hardware. This system is an ongoing project that will continue once my internship ends.

Moore, Jessica↗

Toward Improved Land Surface Initialization in Support of Regional WRF Forecasts at the Kenya Meteorological Service (KMS)

Flooding and drought are two key forecasting challenges for the Kenya Meteorological Service (KMS). Atmospheric processes leading to excessive precipitation and/or prolonged drought can be quite sensitive to the state of the land surface, which interacts with the planetary boundary layer (PBL) of the atmosphere providing a source of heat and moisture. The development and evolution of precipitation systems are affected by heat and moisture fluxes from the land surface, particularly within weakly-sheared environments such as in the tropics and sub-tropics. These heat and moisture fluxes during the day can be strongly influenced by land cover, vegetation, and soil moisture content. Therefore, it is important to represent the land surface state as accurately as possible in land surface and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Enhanced regional modeling capabilities have the potential to improve forecast guidance in support of daily operations and high-impact weather over eastern Africa. KMS currently runs a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) NWP model in real time to support its daily forecasting operations, making use of the NOAA/National Weather Service (NWS) Science and Training Resource Center's Environmental Modeling System (EMS) to manage and produce the KMS-WRF runs on a regional grid over eastern Africa. Two organizations at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, AL, SERVIR and the Shortterm Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center, have established a working partnership with KMS for enhancing its regional modeling capabilities through new datasets and tools. To accomplish this goal, SPoRT and SERVIR is providing enhanced, experimental land surface initialization datasets and model verification capabilities to KMS as part of this collaboration. To produce a land-surface initialization more consistent with the resolution of the KMS-WRF runs, the NASA Land Information System (LIS) is run at a comparable resolution to provide real-time, daily soil initialization data in place of data interpolated from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) model soil moisture and temperature fields. Additionally, realtime green vegetation fraction (GVF) data from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (Suomi- NPP) satellite will be incorporated into the KMS-WRF runs, once it becomes publicly available from the National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service (NESDIS). Finally, model verification capabilities will be transitioned to KMS using the Model Evaluation Tools (MET; Brown et al. 2009) package in conjunction with a dynamic scripting package developed by SPoRT (Zavodsky et al. 2014), to help quantify possible improvements in simulated temperature, moisture and precipitation resulting from the experimental land surface initialization. Furthermore, the transition of these MET tools will enable KMS to monitor model forecast accuracy in near real time. This paper presents preliminary efforts to improve land surface model initialization over eastern Africa in support of operations at KMS. The remainder of this extended abstract is organized as follows: The collaborating organizations involved in the project are described in Section 2; background information on LIS and the configuration for eastern Africa is presented in Section 3; the WRF configuration used in this modeling experiment is described in Section 4; sample experimental WRF output with and without LIS initialization data are given in Section 5; a summary is given in Section 6 followed by acknowledgements and references.

Case, Johnathan L.↗

Collaborative Systems Engineering in the Ascent Abort-2 Crew Module/Separation Ring Project

Generally speaking, systems engineering (SE) tool-sets face a dilemma balancing power and accessibility. High-powered SE tools (MagicDraw, Cradle, Core, etc.) tend to be specialized and are available only to highly trained Systems Engineers, and/or through the use of a 'back room' developer team making the output products available to the broader team. On the other hand, highly accessible tools (MS Word, Excel, etc.) do not have the power to implement SE in a rigorous manner. NASA has to test all aspects of the new human-rated Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle spacecraft prior to its first crewed mission. The test program includes uncrewed launch abort flight tests to demonstrate the capability to save the crew in the event that a launch failure occurs. Orion's second abort flight test will be a low-altitude flight test known as "Ascent Abort 2 (AA-2)." This test is currently scheduled to be carried out at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station's Space Launch Complex 46 (SLC-46) in Florida in 2019. NASA's in-house AA-2 Crew Module and Separation Ring (CSR) Team is producing the crew module and separation ring. Operating jointly as both an Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Project and an Orion Project, the CSR project charter includes development of innovative, streamlined and generally more efficient practices for creation of flight hardware and software. One result of this tasking has been development of a collaborative and data-centric systems engineering environment within the team's shared web environment (Microsoft SharePoint). Through the use of built-in, 'out of the box capabilities' present in MS SharePoint, the CSR Systems Engineering team has created (with some limited developer support) a data-centric architecture for the project's SE implementation, including functional and interface analysis, requirements development and management, risk management, verification planning and management, test results, and end item management. Data elements are linked between data structures so as to define and control relationships between item types, link requirements to parents and children, and link tests to the requirements that they verify. The overall project team integration is increased by also linking SE content to project management content over the project life cycle, including team communication, action items, configuration management, decisional and meeting materials, and life cycle reviews. This presentation will provide an overview of the collaborative SE environment, showing how it provides the power for a number of SE tasks while still providing the accessibility and transparency to allow the full project team to collaborate and succeed. Given the project phase, we'll be able to present a nearly full lifecycle discussion, from concept through verification and approaching delivery.

Systems Engineering environments↗

Pollutant emissions from and within a model gas turbine combustor at elevated pressures and temperatures

Conventional and advanced gas turbine engines are coming under increased scrutiny regarding pollutant emissions. This, in turn, has created a need to obtain in-situ experimental data at practical conditions, as well as exhaust data, and to obtain the data in combustors that reflect modern designs. The in-situ data are needed to (1) assess the effects of design modifications on pollutant formation, and (2) develop a detailed data base on combustor performance for the development and verification of computer modeling. This paper reports on a novel high pressure, high temperature facility designed to acquire such data under controlled conditions and with access (optical and extractive) for in-situ measurements. To evaluate the utility of the facility, a model gas turbine combustor was selected which features practical hardware design, two rows of jets (primary and dilution) with four jets in each row, and advanced wall cooling techniques with laser drilled effusive holes. The dome is equipped with a flat-vaned swirler with vane angles of 60 degrees. Data are obtained at combustor pressures ranging from 2 to 10 atmospheres of pressure, levels of air preheat to 427 C, combustor reference velocities from 10.0 to 20.0 m/s, and an overall equivalence ratio of 0.3. Exit plane and in-situ measurements are presented for HC, O2, CO2, CO, and NO(x). The exit plane emissions of NO(x) correspond to levels reported from practical combustors and the in-situ data demonstrate the utility and potential for detailed flow field measurements.

Drennan, S. A.↗

Modernization of B-2 Data, Video, and Control Systems Infrastructure

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Glenn Research Center (GRC) Plum Brook Station (PBS) Spacecraft Propulsion Research Facility, commonly referred to as B-2, is NASA s third largest thermal-vacuum facility with propellant systems capability. B-2 has completed a modernization effort of its facility legacy data, video and control systems infrastructure to accommodate modern integrated testing and Information Technology (IT) Security requirements. Integrated systems tests have been conducted to demonstrate the new data, video and control systems functionality and capability. Discrete analog signal conditioners have been replaced by new programmable, signal processing hardware that is integrated with the data system. This integration supports automated calibration and verification of the analog subsystem. Modern measurement systems analysis (MSA) tools are being developed to help verify system health and measurement integrity. Legacy hard wired digital data systems have been replaced by distributed Fibre Channel (FC) network connected digitizers where high speed sampling rates have increased to 256,000 samples per second. Several analog video cameras have been replaced by digital image and storage systems. Hard-wired analog control systems have been replaced by Programmable Logic Controllers (PLC), fiber optic networks (FON) infrastructure and human machine interface (HMI) operator screens. New modern IT Security procedures and schemes have been employed to control data access and process control flows. Due to the nature of testing possible at B-2, flexibility and configurability of systems has been central to the architecture during modernization.

Cmar, Mark D.↗

Modernization of B-2 Data, Video, and Control Systems Infrastructure

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Glenn Research Center (GRC) Plum Brook Station (PBS) Spacecraft Propulsion Research Facility, commonly referred to as B-2, is NASA's third largest thermal-vacuum facility with propellant systems capability. B-2 has completed a modernization effort of its facility legacy data, video and control systems infrastructure to accommodate modern integrated testing and Information Technology (IT) Security requirements. Integrated systems tests have been conducted to demonstrate the new data, video and control systems functionality and capability. Discrete analog signal conditioners have been replaced by new programmable, signal processing hardware that is integrated with the data system. This integration supports automated calibration and verification of the analog subsystem. Modern measurement systems analysis (MSA) tools are being developed to help verify system health and measurement integrity. Legacy hard wired digital data systems have been replaced by distributed Fibre Channel (FC) network connected digitizers where high speed sampling rates have increased to 256,000 samples per second. Several analog video cameras have been replaced by digital image and storage systems. Hard-wired analog control systems have been replaced by Programmable Logic Controllers (PLC), fiber optic networks (FON) infrastructure and human machine interface (HMI) operator screens. New modern IT Security procedures and schemes have been employed to control data access and process control flows. Due to the nature of testing possible at B-2, flexibility and configurability of systems has been central to the architecture during modernization.

Cmar, Mark D.↗

Sea surface topography fields of the tropical Pacific from data assimilation

Time series of maps of monthly tropical Pacific dynamic topography anomalies from 1979 through 1985 were constructed by means of assimilation of the tide gauge and expendable bathythermograph (XBT) data into a linear model driven by observed winds. Estimates of error statistics were calculated and compared to actual differences between hindcasts and observations. Four experiements were performed as follows: one with no assimilation, one with assimiation of sea level anomaly data from eight selected island tide gauge stations, one with assimilation of dynamic height anomalies derived from XBT data, and one with both XBT and tide gauge data assimilated. Data from seven additional tide gauge stations were withheld from the assimilation process and used for verification in all four experiements. Statistical objective maps based on data alone were also constructed for comparison purposes. The dynamic response of the model without assimilation was, in general, weaker than the observed response. Assimilation resulted in enhanced signal amplitude in all three assimilation experiments. With few exceptions the error estimated generated by the Kalman filter appeared quite reasonable. Since the error processes cannot be assumed to be white or stationary, we could find no straightforward way to test the formal statistical hypothesis that the time series of differences between the filter ouput and the actual observations were drawn from a population with statistics given by the Kalman filter estimaes. We found that the best filter we could devise was still short of the goal of producing a white innovation sequence. Extensive changes in the assumed error statistics make only marginal differences. The same is true for long time and space scale behavior of different models with richer physics and finer resolution. Better data assimilation results will probably require relaxation of the assumptions of stationarity and serial independence of the errors. Formation of such detailed noise models will require longer time series, with the attendant problems of matching very different data sets.

Miller, Robert N.↗