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At least 505 records · Page 28

Improving Global Reanalyses and Short Range Forecast Using TRMM and SSM/I-Derived Precipitation and Moisture Observations

Global reanalyses currently contain significant errors in the primary fields of the hydrological cycle such as precipitation, evaporation, moisture, and the related cloud fields, especially in the tropics. The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has been exploring the use of tropical rainfall and total precipitable water (TPW) observations from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and the Special Sensor Microwave/ Imager (SSM/I) instruments to improve short-range forecast and reanalyses. We describe a "1+1"D procedure for assimilating 6-hr averaged rainfall and TPW in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Data Assimilation System (DAS). The algorithm is based on a 6-hr time integration of a column version of the GEOS DAS, hence the "1+1"D designation. The scheme minimizes the least-square differences between the observed TPW and rain rates and those produced by the column model over the 6-hr analysis window. This 1+lD scheme, in its generalization to four dimensions, is related to the standard 4D variational assimilation but uses analysis increments instead of the initial condition as the control variable. Results show that assimilating the TMI and SSM/I rainfall and TPW observations improves not only the precipitation and moisture fields but also key climate parameters such as clouds, the radiation, the upper-tropospheric moisture, and the large-scale circulation in the tropics. In particular, assimilating these data reduce the state-dependent systematic errors in the assimilated products. The improved analysis also provides better initial conditions for short-range forecasts, but the improvements in forecast are less than improvements in the time-averaged assimilation fields, indicating that using these data types is effective in correcting biases and other errors of the forecast model in data assimilation.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

Temporal variations in the termination shock distance

A kinematic analysis is made of solar wind driven temporal variations in the heliospheric termination shock distance. This has become possible because the large-scale dynamics of, and temporal variations in the distant solar wind are now well enough known from a combination of in situ and remote measurements. Conversely, nothing is known of the corresponding properties in the local interstellar medium, and hence these will be ignored. Given specific assumptions for how the termination shock responds to solar wind fluctuations, it is shown that the termination shock is very agile, moving in and out by up to a few AU in a month. This conclusion holds for a broad range of shock response assumptions. Because a spacecraft moves slowly in comparison to the termination shock, the shock will sweep back and forth over the spacecraft once the shock is first encountered.

Suess, S. T.↗

Effects of Nonequilibrium Atomic Structure on Ionic Diffusivity in LLZO: A Classical and Machine Learning Molecular Dynamics Study

To improve the performance of electrochemical devices, it is essential to understand the effects of nonequilibrium motifs in solids, such as grain boundaries, amorphous phases, and highly strained regions, on atomic-scale transport and stability. Molecular dynamics simulations are used to explore the combined effect of far-from-equilibrium atomic structures and the choice of interatomic potential on ionic diffusivity predictions for Li 7 La 3 Zr 2 O 12 (LLZO), a promising solid electrolyte for all-solid-state batteries. Amorphization and high strain are considered using both classical Buckingham interatomic potentials and machine learning force fields. Here we find that both crystalline expansion and amorphization tend to slow diffusion, although the different physical encodings in the two potentials impact the properties in different ways. We trace these variations to a combination of structural and transport factors, the contributions of which are deconvoluted computationally. Graph-based analysis reveals that the variations for amorphous LLZO arise from the connectivity of diffusion pathways within the predicted structures, which generally correlates with diffusivity and is notably higher for structures generated by the machine learning force fields. Our study provides additional insight into the relationship between atomic structure and diffusivity in LLZO, while also highlighting the need for care in choosing and validating potentials to simulate far from equilibrium structures.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Improving Global Reanalyses and Short-Range Forecast Using TRMM and SSM/I-Derived Precipitation and Moisture Observations

Global reanalyses currently contain significant errors in the primary fields of the hydrological cycle such as precipitation, evaporation, moisture, and the related cloud fields, especially in the tropics. The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has been exploring the use of tropical rainfall and total precipitable water (TPW) observations from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and the Special Sensor Microwave/ Imager (SSM/I) instruments to improve short-range forecast and reanalyses. We describe a 1+1D procedure for assimilating 6-hr averaged rainfall and TPW in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Data Assimilation System (DAS). The algorithm is based on a 6-hr time integration of a column version of the GEOS DAS, hence the 1+1D designation. The scheme minimizes the least-square differences between the observed TPW and rain rates and those produced by the column model over the 6-hr analysis window. This 1+1D scheme, in its generalization to four dimensions, is related to the standard 4D variational assimilation but uses analysis increments instead of the initial condition as the control variable. Results show that assimilating the TMI and SSW rainfall and TPW observations improves not only the precipitation and moisture fields but also key climate parameters such as clouds, the radiation, the upper-tropospheric moisture, and the large-scale circulation in the tropics. In particular, assimilating these data reduce the state-dependent systematic errors in the assimilated products. The improved analysis also provides better initial conditions for short-range forecasts, but the improvements in forecast are less than improvements in the time-averaged assimilation fields, indicating that using these data types is effective in correcting biases and other errors of the forecast model in data assimilation.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

Solar Electric Propulsion for Primitive Body Science Missions

This paper describes work that assesses the performance of solar electric propulsion (SEP) for three different primitive body science missions: 1) Comet Rendezvous 2) Comet Surface Sample Return (CSSR), and 3) a Trojan asteroid/Centaur object Reconnaissance Flyby. Each of these missions launches from Earth between 2010 and 2016. Beginning-of-life (BOL) solar array power (referenced at 1 A.U.) varies from 10 to 18 kW. Launch vehicle selections range from a Delta II to a Delta IV medium-class. The primary figure of merit (FOM) is net delivered mass (NDM). This analysis considers the effects of imposing various mission constraints on the Comet Rendezvous and CSSR missions. Specifically, the Comet Rendezvous mission analysis examines an arrival date constraint with a launch year variation, whereas the CSSR mission analysis investigates an Earth entry velocity constraint commensurate with past and current missions. Additionally, the CSSR mission analysis establishes NASA's New Frontiers (NF) Design Reference Mission (DRM) in order to evaluate current and future SEP technologies. The results show that transfer times range from 5 to 9 years (depending on the mission). More importantly, the spacecraft's primary propulsion system performs an average 5-degree plane change on the return leg of the CSSR mission to meet the previously mentioned Earth entry velocity constraint. Consequently, these analyses show that SEP technologies that have higher thrust-to-power ratios can: 1) reduce flight time, and 2) change planes more efficiently.

Witzberger, Kevin E.↗

SABER (TIMED) and MLS (UARS) Temperature Observations of Mesospheric and Stratospheric QBO and Related Tidal Variations

More than three years of temperature observations from the SABER (TIMED) and MLS WARS) instruments are analyzed to study the annual and inter-annual variations extending from the stratosphere into the upper mesosphere. The SABER measurements provide data from a wide altitude range (15 to 95 km) for the years 2002 to 2004, while the MLS data were taken in the 16 to 55 km altitude range a decade earlier. Because of the sampling properties of SABER and MLS, the variations with local solar time must be accounted for when estimating the zonal mean variations. An algorithm is thus applied that delineates with Fourier analysis the year-long variations of the migrating tides and zonal mean component. The amplitude of the diurnal tide near the equator shows a strong semiannual periodicity with maxima near equinox, which vary from year to year to indicate the influence from the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) in the zonal circulation. The zonal mean QBO temperature variations are analyzed over a range of latitudes and altitudes, and the results are presented for latitudes from 48"s to 48"N. New results are obtained for the QBO, especially in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere, and at mid-latitudes. At Equatorial latitudes, the QBO amplitudes show local peaks, albeit small, that occur at different altitudes. From about 20 to 40 km, and within about 15" of the Equator, the amplitudes can approach 3S K for the stratospheric QBO or SQBO. For the mesospheric QBO or MQBO, we find peaks near 70 km, with temperature amplitudes reaching 3.5"K, and near 85 km, the amplitudes approach 2.5OK. Morphologically, the amplitude and phase variations derived from the SABER and MLS measurements are in qualitative agreement. The QBO amplitudes tend to peak at the Equator but then increase again pole-ward of about 15" to 20'. The phase progression with altitude varies more gradually at the Equator than at mid-latitudes. A comparison of the observations with results from the Numerical Spectral Model (NSM) reveals that there is qualitative agreement. The NSM generates the QBO extending from the stratosphere into the upper mesosphere, with temperature variations extending to mid latitudes, but the predicted amplitudes are smaller than those observed.

Huang, Frank T.↗

Enriched East Asian oxygen isotope of precipitation indicates reduced summer seasonality in regional climate and westerlies

Speleothem oxygen isotope records over East Asia reveal apparently large and rapid paleoclimate changes over the last several hundred thousand years. However, what the isotopic variation actually represent in terms of the regional climate and circulation is debated. We present an answer that emerges from an analysis of the interannual variation in amount-weighted annual δ 18 O of precipitation over East Asia as simulated by an isotope-enabled model constrained by large-scale atmospheric reanalysis fields. 18 O-enriched years have reduced summer seasonality both in terms of precipitation isotopes and in the large-scale circulation. Changes occur between June and October, where the δ 18 O of precipitation (δ 18 O p ) transitions from the isotopically heavier winter to the lighter summer regime. For 18 O-enriched years, this transition is less pronounced. Variations in precipitation amount alone are insufficient to explain the amount-weighted annual δ 18 O p between 18 O-enriched and 18 O-depleted years. Reduced summer seasonality is also expressed in the low-level monsoonal southerlies and upper-level westerlies; for the latter, the northward migration across the Tibetan Plateau in the summer is less pronounced. Our result thus implicates the westerlies across the plateau as the proximate cause of East Asian paleomonsoon changes, manifested as a modulation of its summer peak.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Advanced microwave soil moisture studies

Comparisons of low level L-band brightness temperature (TB) and thermal infrared (TIR) data as well as the following data sets: soil map and land cover data; direct soil moisture measurement; and a computer generated contour map were statistically evaluated using regression analysis and linear discriminant analysis. Regression analysis of footprint data shows that statistical groupings of ground variables (soil features and land cover) hold promise for qualitative assessment of soil moisture and for reducing variance within the sampling space. Dry conditions appear to be more conductive to producing meaningful statistics than wet conditions. Regression analysis using field averaged TB and TIR data did not approach the higher sq R values obtained using within-field variations. The linear discriminant analysis indicates some capacity to distinguish categories with the results being somewhat better on a field basis than a footprint basis.

Dalsted, K. J.↗

Temperature variations in the middle and upper stratosphere: 1979-1992

Temperature variations in the stratosphere from 1979 to 1992 are investigated using 365-day running mean of the National Meteorological Center gridded analysis temperature data. Significant variations are seen at all levels between 70 and 1 mbar. The middle stratosphere shows temperature peaks during 1982 and 1983. The upper stratosphere has significant temperature declines between 1 and 10 mbar from 1981 to 1984. Temperatures at all levels recover to near their prior values after 1984, with the 5-mbar temperatures requiring the greatest time to fully recover. The temperature declines at 1 mbar occur in both hemispheres, over all longitudes, and in every month of the year. The decreases are largest in the middle latitudes and the polar regions and during the fall and the winter months. Such temperature variations, which appear to be of natural origin, must be taken into consideration when searching for temperature trends caused by the increase of CO2 or other greenhouse gases which affect the radiative balance of the Earth-atmosphere system or stratospheric ozone.

Lambeth, James D.↗

Long-term tropospheric and lower stratospheric ozone variations from ozonesonde observations

An analysis is presented of the long-term mean pressure-latitude seasonal distribution of tropospheric and lower stratospheric ozone for the four seasons covering, in part, over 20 years of ozonesonde data. The observed patterns show minimum ozone mixing ratios in the equatorial and tropical troposphere except in regions where net photochemical production is dominant. In the middle and upper troposphere, and low stratosphere to 50 mb, ozone increases from the tropics to subpolar latitudes of both hemispheres. In mid stratosphere, the ozone mixing ratio is a maximum over the tropics. The observed vertical ozone gradient is small in the troposphere but increases rapidly above the tropopause. The amplitude of the annual variation increases from a minimum in the tropics to a maximum in polar regions. Also, the amplitude increases with height at all latitudes up to about 30 mb where the phase of the annual variation changes abruptly. The phase of the annual variation is during spring in the boundary layer, summer in mid troposphere, and spring in the upper troposhere and lower stratosphere.

London, J.↗

Subsurface Trend Analysis domains for the northern Gulf of Mexico

Geologic domains for the northern Gulf of Mexico derived using the Subsurface Trend Analysis (STA) method. The domains were postulated using geologic province, lithologic, and structural information and validated using statistical methods. Publication detailing the STA method: Rose, K., Bauer, J.R., and Mark-Moser, M. (2020) Subsurface trend analysis, a multi-variate geospatial approach for subsurface evaluation and uncertainty reduction, Interpretation, vol. 8, issue 1 https://library.seg.org/doi/abs/10.1190/int-2019-0019.1 Detailed discussion of domain formation and analysis: Mark-Moser, M., Miller, R., Bauer, J., Rose, K., and C. Disenhof. 2018, Analysis of Subsurface Reservoir Properties Using a Novel Geospatial Approach, Offshore Gulf of Mexico. NETL-TRS-2018 https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/detailed-analysis-of-geospatial-trends-of-hydrocarbon-accumulations-offshore-gulf-of-mexico

geology↗

Analytical simulation of weld effects in creep range

The inelastic analysis procedure used to investigate the effect of welding on the creep rupture strength of a typical Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactor (LMFBR) nozzle is discussed. The current study is part of an overall experimental and analytical investigation to verify the inelastic analysis procedure now being used to design LMFBR structural components operating at elevated temperatures. Two important weld effects included in the numerical analysis are: (1) the residual stress introduced in the fabrication process; and (2) the time-independent and the time-dependent material property variations. Finite element inelastic analysis was performed on a CRAY-1S computer using the ABAQUS program with the constitutive equations developed for the design of LMFBR structural components. The predicted peak weld residual stresses relax by as much as 40% during elevated temperature operation, and their effect on creep-rupture cracking of the nozzle is considered of secondary importance.

Dhalla, A. K.↗

Probabilistic structural analysis to evaluate the structural durability of SSME critical components

NASA Lewis Research Center is currently developing probabilistic structural analysis methods for select Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) structural components. Briefly, the deterministic, three-dimensional, inelastic analysis methodology developed under the Hot Section Technology (HOST) and R and T Base Programs is being augmented to accommodate the complex probabilistic loading spectra, the thermoviscoplastic material behavior, and the material degradation associated with the environment of space propulsion system structural components representative of the SSME such as turbine blades, transfer ducts, and liquid-oxygen posts. The development of probabilistic structural analysis methodology consists of the following program elements: (1) composite load spectra; (2) probabilistic structural analysis methods; (3) probabilistic finite element theory - new variational principles; and (4) probabilistic structural analysis application. In addition, the program includes deterministic analysis elements: (1) development of structural tailoring computer codes (SSME/STAEBL); (2) development of dynamic creep buckling/ratcheting theory; (3) evaluation of the dynamic characteristics of single-crystal SSME blades; (4) development of SSME blade damper technology; and (5) development of integrated boundary elements for hotfluid structure interaction.

Chamis, Christos C.↗

Evaluation of Non-Ozone-Depleting-Chemical Cleaning Methods for Space Mechanisms Using a Vacuum Spiral Orbit Rolling Contact Tribometer

Because CFC 113, an ozone depleting chemical (ODC), can no longer be produced, alternative bearing cleaning methods must be studied. The objective of this work was to study the effect of the new cleaning methods on lubricant lifetime using a vacuum bearing simulator (spiral orbit rolling contact tribometer). Four alternative cleaning methods were studied: ultra-violet (UV) ozone, aqueous levigated alumina slurry (ALAS), super critical fluid (SCF) CO2 and aqueous Brulin 815GD. Baseline tests were done using CFC 113. Test conditions were the following: a vacuum of at least 1.3 x 10(exp -6) Pa, 440C steel components, a rotational speed of 10 RPM, a lubricant charge of between 60-75 micrograms, a perfluoropolyalkylether lubricant (Z-25), and a load of 200N (44.6 lbs., a mean Hertzian stress of 1.5 GPa). Normalized lubricant lifetime was determined by dividing the total number of ball orbits by the amount of lubricant. The failure condition was a friction coefficient of 0.38. Post-test XPS analysis was also performed, showing slight variations in post-cleaning surface chemistry. Statistical analysis of the resultant data was conducted and it was determined that the data sets were most directly comparable when subjected to a natural log transformation. The natural log life (NL-Life) data for each cleaning method were reasonably normally (statistically) distributed and yielded standard deviations that were not significantly different among the five cleaning methods investigated. This made comparison of their NL-Life means very straightforward using a Bonferroni multiple comparison of means procedure. This procedure showed that the ALAS, UV-ozone and CFC 113 methods were not statistically significantly different from one another with respect to mean NL-Life. It also found that the SCF CO2 method yielded a significantly higher mean NL-Life than the mean NL-Lives of the ALAS, UV-ozone and CFC 113 methods. It also determined that the aqueous Brulin 815GD method yielded a mean NL-Life that was statistically significantly higher than the mean NL-Lives of each of the other four methods. Baseline tests using CFC 113 cleaned parts yielded a mean NL-Life 3.62 orbits/micro-g. ALAS and UV-ozone yielded similar mean NL-Life (3.31 orbits/mg and 3.33 orbits/micro-g, respectively). SCF CO2, gave a mean NL-Life of 4.08 orbits/mg and aqueous Brulin 8l5GD data yielded the longest mean NL-Life (4.66 orbits/micro-g).

Jansen, Mark J.↗

Absence of diurnal variation of C-reactive protein concentrations in healthy human subjects

BACKGROUND: The concentration of C-reactive protein (CRP) in otherwise healthy subjects has been shown to predict future risk of myocardial infarction and stroke. CRP is synthesized by the liver in response to interleukin-6, the serum concentration of which is subject to diurnal variation. METHODS: To examine the existence of a time-of-day effect for baseline CRP values, we determined CRP concentrations in hourly blood samples drawn from healthy subjects (10 males, 3 females; age range, 21-35 years) during a baseline day in a controlled environment (8 h of nighttime sleep). RESULTS: Overall CRP concentrations were low, with only three subjects having CRP concentrations >2 mg/L. Comparison of raw data showed stability of CRP concentrations throughout the 24 h studied. When compared with cutoff values of CRP quintile derived from population-based studies, misclassification of greater than one quintile did not occur as a result of diurnal variation in any of the subjects studied. Nonparametric ANOVA comparing different time points showed no significant differences for both raw and z-transformed data. Analysis for rhythmic diurnal variation using a method fitting a cosine curve to the group data was negative. CONCLUSIONS: Our data show that baseline CRP concentrations are not subject to time-of-day variation and thus help to explain why CRP concentrations are a better predictor of vascular risk than interleukin-6. Determination of CRP for cardiovascular risk prediction may be performed without concern for diurnal variation.

Non-NASA Center↗

Impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act on Consumer Energy Expenditures

The Inflation Reduction Act introduced or expanded a suite of federal tax credits for clean electricity generation and customer adoption of electric (and other highly efficient) end-use equipment. These incentives are expected to drive changes in both the electricity generation mix and demand for electricity (especially for space heating and light-duty vehicles), which are highly interconnected. In this session, Caitlin Murphy, Group Manager and Senior Analyst in NREL's Strategic Energy Analysis Center, will present findings from her team's recent state-level analysis on the combined effects of various IRA incentives on customer expenditures for electricity, natural gas, and gasoline. She will present and explain the regional variations observed in their analysis, based on interactions between end-use equipment cost and performance and projections for future energy prices.

air source heat pump↗