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At least 505 records · Page 28

Exploration of Design Drivers for the RVLT Lift+Cruise Reference Aircraft

A trade study was performed on an all-electric version of the Lift+Cruise urban air mobility reference aircraft developed under the Revolutionary Vertical Lift Technology Project. The trade study varied the input parameters of mission range, takeoff altitude, mission reserve time, cell specific energy, disk loading, and payload weight. A step-by-step incremental change in the input parameters was also examined. Analyses were performed using the NASA Design and Analysis of Rotorcraft tool and a Rapid Sizing Tool for electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft. A comparison of the analysis results between the two tools shows good agreement in trends with differences in slope. Overall, the analysis shows that the Lift+Cruise configuration performs poorly on a NASA-defined, energy-dominated mission due to poor aerodynamic efficiency in forward flight. This poor cruise-flight efficiency results in a large energy requirement, which increases the required battery sizing and corresponding aircraft gross weight. As such, continued conceptual design and refinement of the Lift+Cruise reference aircraft by the RVLT Concepts Team will likely be limited.

UAM↗

Climate-Related Trends of Within-Storm Intensities Using Dimensionless Temporal-Storm Distributions

Huff curves are probabilistic time distributions of rainfall expressed as dimensionless cumulative percentages of storm depth and duration. Previous studies have documented development factors, spatial robustness, and the utility of Huff curves in practical applications. However, the effects of trending rainfall on Huff curve intensity patterns have not yet been studied. As such, the goal of this paper is to fill this gap by studying Huff curve patterns in a watershed with demonstrated increasing trends of temperature and precipitation, with the intention that it can be generalized to other areas in the US and the world. To achieve this goal, the high temporal resolution precipitation data collected from a high spatial density, 72-year precipitation-gauge network on the 4.25-km 2 North Appalachian Experimental Watershed in east-central Ohio were used. Seasonal storm pattern trends from 1939 to 2010 were investigated using dimensionless depth (with the frequency of 50%, $d_{50}$) and the curve variability $(V = d_{80} - d_{20})$ at three dimensionless within-storms time periods (three verticals). The Spearman rank correlation procedure (correlation coefficient, ρ and significance probability, p) was used to statistically determine trends over time using 8 periods of 4-season sets of Huff curves over the 72 years. Two averages of ρ and p were computed: (1) by averaging the individual ρ and p obtained from 10 gauges (AvgI); and (2) by grouped averaging of all individual gauge values of $d_{50}$ and V and then computing ρ and p (AvgG). The test results of individual gauges showed that 4 cases for $d_{50}$ and 23 cases for V were significant for all seasons and verticals (total of 120 cases for each variable). The test results of AvgI for $d_{50}$ and V and AvgG for $d_{50}$ showed no significant trends in all seasons and verticals. Only the AvgG for V led to a significant trend for V in spring and fall at different times within storm patterns. The data do not provide sufficient evidence at the p=0.05 significance level to reject the null hypothesis of unchanging position of the dimensionless depth of the 50% Huff curves for individual or averages for all seasons and verticals. Also, there is insufficient evidence to reject the null hypothesis of unchanging variability, V, using the average ρ of individual gauges (AvgI for V) for all seasons and verticals. AvgG results showed a significant trend in V; however, this analysis may be affected by the nonindependence of storm data. The results suggest that it is likely that there is little if any effect of trending climate over approximately 70 years on Huff curve patterns. The results of this study add to the robustness characteristics of Huff curves and to their potential use in hydrological practice as design storms, as the foundation of stochastic storm generation, and for storm disaggregation, and they deserve further investigation. These different forms of inputs to watershed models have the potential to improve runoff estimation. The results suggest that, if verified in other studies, they have applicability to provide useful stationary precipitation patterns across the US and other areas of the world in areas of nonstationary climate. Also, individual rain gauge data may not be representative of trends even over small areas, and seasonal differences were noticeable as found in other studies. Recommendations are provided.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The South Pole Telescope AGN Monitoring Campaign: First Release of SPTpol Bright AGN Light Curves

The South Pole Telescope (SPT) collaboration has recently embarked upon a campaign to monitor the brightness of a sample of active galactic nuclei (AGN), both in real time and in archival SPT data. The original design of the SPT was optimized for observations of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) at arc-minute and larger angular scales, and it has been used for this purpose for nearly twenty years, using three generations of CMB cameras. Recently it has been recognized that data from CMB experiments have the potential to be used for AGN monitoring. In this paper, we present the first public release of data from a full sample of SPT-monitored AGN, comprising 158 AGN light curves and associated data from the SPTpol camera, which was operational from 2012-2016. These light curves were created using observations from the SPTpol 500 deg$^{2}$ survey, in which the instrument was used to scan a 500 deg$^2$ patch of the sky several times per day with detectors sensitive to radiation in bands centered at 90 and 150 GHz. We provide a comprehensive description of the observations, the data processing methods, and the resulting light curve catalog. As an example of analyses that these data enable, we searched for a correlation between variability and spectral index, and we looked for ``bluer-when-brighter'' trends in the sample. Our analysis finds $> 10 σ$ correlation between fractional intrinsic variance and mean spectral index in the sample, but no significant evidence for bluer-when-brighter trends. The datasets from this study can be accessed through the SPT Treasury Record of AGN With Historical Activity and Time-Series or STRAWHAT catalog. This initial data release includes SPTpol light curves at 90 and 150 GHz, focusing on total intensity. In later updates, SPTpol polarization data and new observations from the SPT-3G instrument at 90, 150, and 220 GHz will be included.

Hood, J.C., II [Chicago U., KICP; Chicago U., Astr↗

Creep response of the lunar crust in mare regions from an analysis of crater deformation

The settling trends of 318 lunar mare craters are compared with predictions of numerical finite-element models in order to determine the creep response of the upper lunar mare crust. No settling is evident in craters smaller than 5 km in diameter. Settling rates of larger craters increase as function of crater size in a manner suggesting a nonlinear lunar creep response corresponding to the power law epsilon = 8.3 x 10 to the minus 34th sigma squared where epsilon is the strain rate and sigma is the differential stress. However, the observed nonlinearity is probably an apparent nonlinearity resulting from the temperature-induced viscosity decrease with depth due to a lunar crustal temperature gradient of 3 C/km and a creep activation energy of 20 kcal/mole. It is concluded that creep in the lunar medium is essentially Newtonian, and that the effective viscosity of the upper lunar mare is (1.6 plus or minus 0.3) x 10 to the 25th poise.

Kunze, A. W. G.↗

Solar cities: A case study analysis of city-level enablers of expanded solar energy access

Rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) adoption can benefit households by reducing electricity bills and enhancing energy resiliency. Low and moderate-income (LMI) households have been less likely to adopt PV and experience these benefits in the United States than higher-income households. Adopter income trends are often explored through quantitative analysis with limited explanatory power. Our quantitative analysis only explains around one-third of city-level variation in LMI adoption trends through socioeconomic factors such as median home values and income inequality and PV market factors such as cumulative adoption and incentives. We implement semi-structured interviews in three case studies of cities with relatively high rates of LMI PV adoption to better understand the factors that explain PV adopter income trends. The case studies partly reiterate findings from quantitative analysis, such as the role of PV incentives. The case studies reveal a broader set of LMI adoption drivers that are missed in quantitative analyses. The case studies show how city contexts can affect LMI adoption, such as the role of supportive city governments. The case studies also reveal the importance of partnerships, such as partnerships between city governments and state LMI PV program implementers. Finally, interviewees emphasized the importance of building trust among prospective LMI PV adopters. Interviewees suggested that partnerships, outreach, and consumer protection measures were crucial to building trust in PV installers among LMI households.

Adoption↗

Trends in Use of Hypofractionated Whole Breast Radiation in Breast Cancer: An Analysis of the National Cancer Database

Use of hypofractionated radiation (HR) as a component of breast-conserving treatment (BCT) in breast cancer is relatively low in the United States despite studies demonstrating its efficacy and guidelines supporting its use from the American Society for Radiation Oncology (ASTRO) in 2011 and 2018. Little is known regarding national trends in uptake and factors associated with uptake of HR in the US since the 2011 ASTRO guidelines.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Temperature trends in the lower mesosphere

The largest atmospheric temperature changes due to the increase of greenhouse gases are expected in the 40 to 60 km altitude region, where enhanced infrared cooling decreases the temperature. Ten-year (1980-1990) temperature trends at 55 km and 0.4 mb, derived using data from the ground-based lidar at Haute Provence, (France), and the SSU-instrument channel 47X on several satellites, are presented. These data show temperature decreases that are as large and in some cases exceed predictions based on current models. At 44 deg N, the ground-based lidar and satellite techniques give a negative trend of -0.10 + or - 0.04 percent per year and -0.14 + or - 0.02 percent per year, respectively. Agreement between these two data sets based on different measurement techniques gives confidence in the detected trends at this latitude. Further analysis of the SSU 47X satellite data between 45 deg S and 45 deg N indicates a maximum decline of 0.16 percent per year near 30 deg N. A minimum trend decrease of 0.07 percent per year is detected between 20 and 30 deg S. Based on NOAA satellite radiance observations, these long-term temperature changes are larger than changes at any of the other stratospheric levels below 55 km monitored during this period.

Aikin, A. C.↗

Comparison of Recent Modeled and Observed Trends in Total Column Ozone

We present a comparison of trends in total column ozone from 10 two-dimensional and 4 three-dimensional models and solar backscatter ultraviolet-2 (SBUV/2) satellite observations from the period 1979-2003. Trends for the past (1979-2000), the recent 7 years (1996-2003), and the future (2000-2050) are compared. We have analyzed the data using both simple linear trends and linear trends derived with a hockey stick method including a turnaround point in 1996. If the last 7 years, 1996-2003, are analyzed in isolation, the SBUV/2 observations show no increase in ozone, and most of the models predict continued depletion, although at a lesser rate. In sharp contrast to this, the recent data show positive trends for the Northern and the Southern Hemispheres if the hockey stick method with a turnaround point in 1996 is employed for the models and observations. The analysis shows that the observed positive trends in both hemispheres in the recent 7-year period are much larger than what is predicted by the models. The trends derived with the hockey stick method are very dependent on the values just before the turnaround point. The analysis of the recent data therefore depends greatly on these years being representative of the overall trend. Most models underestimate the past trends at middle and high latitudes. This is particularly pronounced in the Northern Hemisphere. Quantitatively, there is much disagreement among the models concerning future trends. However, the models agree that future trends are expected to be positive and less than half the magnitude of the past downward trends. Examination of the model projections shows that there is virtually no correlation between the past and future trends from the individual models.

Andersen, S. B.↗

Overcoming Dimensionality Barriers in Satellite Data to Elucidate SPECTRAL-SPATIAL-TEMPORAL Trends in the Ocean

The weighted harmonic mean of spectral wavelengths can be used as an index of optical water types that share similar spectral signatures.This technique can be translated to relate spectral shape between sensors of varying spectral resolution.The output along a continuum of color values enables spatio-temporal analysis of subtle spectral shifts.Directional trends in absorption and backscatter data lend a hidden context to changes in water color. Conceptualization of multiple data dimensions is imperative as passive/active sensors grow increasingly sophisticated in nature.

Vandermeulen, Ryan↗

Topological analysis of X-ray CT data for the recognition and trending of subtle changes in microstructure under material aging

X-ray computed tomography (CT) is an established non-destructive tool for 3D imaging of multiphasic composites. Numerous applications of X-ray CT in medical diagnosis and materials characterization have been reported, many involving field-specific innovations in the imaging technology itself. Yet, quantitative summarization to link image features to properties of interest has been rare. Here we address this issue by employing state-of-the-art technics in scalar field topology for the summarization of X-ray CT images of an example biphasic system. By varying processing-parameters we create different microstructures, evolve them through accelerated thermal aging, CT-image them pre- and post-aged, and demonstrate the ability of our image summarization method to systematically track process- and age-related changes, which can often be very subtle. A novel aspect of the algorithm involves recognition over multiple resolution levels, which provides deeper insight into the pattern relationship between grain-like features and their neighbors. The method is general, adaptable to diverse image reconstruction methods and materials systems, and particularly useful in applications where practical constraints on the sample-size limits the reliable use of more complex models, e.g., convolutional neural networks.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Interdisciplinary Investigations in Support of Project DI-MOD

Various concepts from time series analysis are used as the basis for the development of algorithms to assist in the analysis and interpretation of remote sensed imagery. An approach to trend detection that is based upon the fractal analysis of power spectrum estimates is presented. Additionally, research was conducted toward the development of a software architecture to support processing tasks associated with databases housing a variety of data. An algorithmic approach which provides for the automation of the state monitoring process is presented.

Starks, Scott A.↗

Enhanced Component Performance Study: Emergency Diesel Generators 1998–2018

This report presents an enhanced performance evaluation of emergency diesel generators (EDGs) at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. This report evaluates component performance over time using (1) Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Consolidated Events Database (ICES) data from 1998 through 2018 and (2) maintenance unavailability (UA) performance data from Mitigating Systems Performance Index (MSPI) Basis Document data from 2002 through 2018. The objective is to show estimates of current failure probabilities and rates related to EDGs, trend these data on an annual basis, determine if the current data are consistent with the probability distributions currently recommended for use in NRC probabilistic risk assessments, show how the reliability data differ for different EDG manufacturers and for EDGs with different ratings; and summarize the subcomponents, causes, detection methods, and recovery associated with each EDG failure mode. Engineering analyses were performed with respect to time period and failure mode without regard to the actual number of EDGs at each plant. The factors analyzed are: sub-component, failure cause, detection method, recovery, manufacturer, and EDG rating. A statistically significant increasing trend was identified in the frequency of FTLR demands for emergency power system (EPS) and high pressure core spray (HPCS) EDGs and a statistically significant decreasing trend was identified in the frequency of run > 1H hours for EPS and HPCS EDGs.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Fatigue and Damage Tolerance Analysis of a Hybrid Composite Tapered Flexbeam

The behavior of nonlinear tapered composite flexbeams under combined axial tension and cyclic bending loading was studied using coupon test specimens and finite element (FE) analyses. The flexbeams used a hybrid material system of graphite/epoxy and glass/epoxy and had internal dropped plies, dropped in an overlapping stepwise pattern. Two material configurations, differing only in the use of glass or graphite plies in the continuous plies near the midplane, were studied. Test specimens were cut from a full-size helicopter tail-rotor flexbeam and were tested in a hydraulic load frame under combined constant axialtension load and transverse cyclic bending loads. The first determination damage observed in the specimens occurred at the area around the tip of the outermost ply-drop group in the tapered region of the flexbeam, near the thick end. Delaminations grew slowly and stably, toward the thick end of the flexbeam, at the interfaces above and below the dropped-ply region. A 2D finite element model of the flexbeam was developed. The model was analyzed using a geometrically non-linear analysis with both the ANSYS and ABAQUS FE codes. The global responses of each analysis agreed well with the test results. The ANSYS model was used to calculate strain energy release rates (G) for delaminations initiating at two different ply-ending locations. The results showed that delaminations were more inclined to grow at the locations where they were observed in the test specimens. Both ANSYS and ABAQUS were used to calculate G values associated with delamination initiating at the observed location but growing in different interfaces, either above or below the ply-ending group toward the thick end, or toward the thin end from the tip of the resin pocket. The different analysis codes generated the same trends and comparable peak values, within 5-11 % for each delamination path. Both codes showed that delamination toward the thick region was largely mode II, and toward the thin region was predominantly mode I. The calculated peak G-values from either analysis predict delamination is most likely to occur along the same interface where it was observed in the test specimens. Calculated peak G values were used with material characterization data to calculate a curve relating the fatigue life of the specimens, N, to the applied transverse load, V, for a given constant axial load.

Murri, Gretchen B.↗

Scientific Impact of MODIS C5 Calibration Degradation and C6+ Improvements

The Collection 6 (C6) MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) land and atmosphere data sets are scheduled for release in 2014. C6 contains significant revisions of the calibration approach to account for sensor aging. This analysis documents the presence of systematic temporal trends in the visible and near-infrared (500 m) bands of the Collection 5 (C5) MODIS Terra and, to lesser extent, in MODIS Aqua geophysical data sets. Sensor degradation is largest in the blue band (B3) of the MODIS sensor on Terra and decreases with wavelength. Calibration degradation causes negative global trends in multiple MODIS C5 products including the dark target algorithm's aerosol optical depth over land and Ångstrom exponent over the ocean, global liquid water and ice cloud optical thickness, as well as surface reflectance and vegetation indices, including the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and enhanced vegetation index (EVI). As the C5 production will be maintained for another year in parallel with C6, one objective of this paper is to raise awareness of the calibration-related trends for the broad MODIS user community. The new C6 calibration approach removes major calibrations trends in the Level 1B (L1B) data. This paper also introduces an enhanced C6C calibration of the MODIS data set which includes an additional polarization correction (PC) to compensate for the increased polarization sensitivity of MODIS Terra since about 2007, as well as detrending and Terra- Aqua cross-calibration over quasi-stable desert calibration sites. The PC algorithm, developed by the MODIS ocean biology processing group (OBPG), removes residual scan angle, mirror side and seasonal biases from aerosol and surface reflectance (SR) records along with spectral distortions of SR. Using the multiangle implementation of atmospheric correction (MAIAC) algorithm over deserts, we have also developed a detrending and cross-calibration method which removes residual decadal trends on the order of several tenths of 1% of the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) reflectance in the visible and near-infrared MODIS bands B1-B4, and provides a good consistency between the two MODIS sensors. MAIAC analysis over the southern USA shows that the C6C approach removed an additional negative decadal trend of Terra (Delta)NDVI approx.0.01 as compared to Aqua data. This change is particularly important for analysis of vegetation dynamics and trends in the tropics, e.g., Amazon rainforest, where the morning orbit of Terra provides considerably more cloud-free observations compared to the afternoon Aqua measurements.

Terra and Aqua↗

An international laboratory comparison of dissolved organic matter composition by high resolution mass spectrometry: Are we getting the same answer?

Since the first detailed compositional analysis of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in 1995, high resolution mass spectrometry (HRMS) has become a vital tool for DOM characterization. While the upward trend in HRMS for molecular level analysis of DOM continues, so do the challenges of data comparison and interpretation between laboratories operating instruments of differing performance and user operating conditions. It is therefore essential that the community establishes whether data and trends can be compared robustly between research groups. To this end, 4 identically prepared DOM samples were each studied by 16 laboratories, representing 17 commercially-purchased instruments located across 8 countries, using positive- and negative-mode electrospray ionization (ESI) HRMS analysis. Despite the widely reported sensitivity of ESI experiments to sample matrix, preparation, ion source operation and instrument tuning parameters, the instruments used in this study showed relatively low variability between results for the same samples, particularly H/C and AI metrics. The variation in O/C and m/z metrics was relatively higher, although z-score graphs and %BCD demonstrated that the relative difference in general chemical composition between samples was the same for each instrument included in the study. As such, these metrics can be used for fingerprinting of DOM samples and as a benchmark for quality control in participating laboratories, with future strides in environmental science building upon these efforts.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Thermal analysis considerations for large space structures

A number of issues and needs relative to thermal analysis of large space structures and space stations are discussed. Some indications of trends in the Langley thermal-structural analysis research program consistent with the issues and needs are also presented. The main heat transfer mechanism in space is radiation; consequently, there is a need for a strong thrust on improved radiation analysis capability. Also the important interactions among temperatures, deformations, and controls need to be accounted for. Finite element analysis capability seems to be lagging behind lumped-parameter capability or heat pipe analysis. The Langley plan will include improving radiation analysis capability, evaluating the errors involved in certain approximate analysis and modeling techniques for large space trusses, and continuing the development of integrated thermal-structural finite elements with an emphasis on radiation heat transfer. Work will be initiated to develop finite element analysis techniques for heat pipes. Finally, optimization research activities will be oriented toward methods to design flexible orbiting structures to account for thermal and thermal deformation requirements.

Adelman, H. M.↗