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This slide presentation reviews the failure of the Helios solar aircraft failure. Included are pictures of the aircraft, inflight, and after the mishap, analysis of the root causes of the mishap, contributing factors, recommendations and lessons learned in respect to crew training, and assessing the level of risk.
The development of advanced vehicles that will travel between planetary surfaces with atmospheres and space requires the availability of experimental and computational capabilities that accomplish the research leading to new technologies and the development, test, and evaluation (RDT&E) of new flight systems. The United States is at risk of not having the required RDT&E workforce – qualified and in sufficient numbers – in place and ready to meet the future market’s commercial and defense needs. Systemic challenges include uncertain Federal budgets that limit and interrupt government research and development, the projectized nature of new space access systems that drive boom/bust cycles, an aging aerospace workforce (compounded by a mid-age demographic gap), limited to declining investment in sustaining and advancing experimental and computational tools infrastructure, lack of standards for sharing (and leveraging) data, dramatically changing technologies, changing social norms, and potentially large increases in commercial market needs. Flight systems have mission-based trajectories to and from space and designers must ensure risk is properly assessed across the entire trajectory. Thus, physics questions must be answered at each stage of flight, which requires a suite of experimental and computational tools. The RDT&E workforce utilizing these tools include subject matter experts from the producers, interested in acquiring data and information on the product, and from the capabilities being utilized, interested in addressing the product customer’s needs (providing robust data collection techniques, data quality, timeliness – available when needed, efficient with cost management, and teaming on data analysis). This requires a range of skills – in addition to aerospace, other engineers, and software developers, a highly trained and certified craft and technician workforce is critical to future success. This paper will present a human resources construct that addresses the system of needs for people – including, but more than just technical skills and an application of that construct in the hypersonic Test and Evaluation (T&E) community. This is part of a larger AIAA effort to document challenges and associated best practices for the aerospace RDT&E workforce.
Space exploration missions represent a significant future objective for NASA’s human spaceflight operations for the near and long term. By operating missions during longer periods and over further distances, NASA’s mission planning models, hardware systems, and medical capabilities will be stretched beyond their original design constraints. The necessity of medical training and medical supply manifesting for such missions is likely to become incredibly intricate as trade-space analysis is performed over varying mission profiles. For this purpose, IMPACT was created to extend and improve the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) which is used for International Space Station (ISS) medical predications and consists of a probabilistic risk assessment tool that simulates missions to calculate risks given the constraints on crew complement, mission duration and activity (such as Extravehicular Activities), power, communication, mass, volume, and evacuation consideration as well as to predict mission outcomes. Currently, the medical evidence used to support IMPACT remains static, addressing risks of a medical condition and the impacts of the condition during spaceflight only, but is only calculated for a small number of mission parameters. Extended missions will consist of new and varied living environments, changing gravitational loads, and dynamic working requirements. Medical risks are not typically constant but will change depending upon the physical and physiological environment of the body during all phases of a mission. Risks are likely to shift during different mission segments, and understanding how components of a mission profile change risks will assist mission planners to increase chances for mission success.
This paper is aimed at atmospheric scientists without formal training in statistical theory. Its goal is to, 1) provide a critical review of the rationale for trend analysis of the time series typically encountered in the field of atmospheric chemistry; 2) describe a range of trend-detection methods; and 3) demonstrate effective means of conveying the results to a general audience. Trend detections in atmospheric chemical composition data are often challenged by a variety of sources of uncertainty, which often behave differently to other environmental phenomena such as temperature, precipitation rate, or stream flow, and may require specific methods depending on the science questions to be addressed. Some sources of uncertainty can be explicitly included in the model specification, such as autocorrelation and seasonality, but some inherent uncertainties are difficult to quantify, such as data heterogeneity and measurement uncertainty due to the combined effect of short- and long-term natural variability, instrumental stability, and aggregation of data from sparse sampling frequency. Failure to account for these uncertainties might result in an inappropriate inference of the trends and their estimation errors. On the other hand, the variation in extreme events might be interesting for different scientific questions, for example, the frequency of extremely high surface ozone events and their relevance to human health. In this study we aim to, 1) review trend detection methods for addressing different levels of data complexity in different chemical species; 2) demonstrate that the incorporation of scientifically interpretable covariates can outperform pure numerical curve fitting techniques in terms of uncertainty reduction and improved predictability; 3) illustrate the study of trends based on extreme quantiles that can provide insight beyond standard mean or median based trend estimates; and 4) present an advanced method of quantifying regional trends based on the inter-site correlations of multi-site data. All demonstrations are based on time series of observed trace gases relevant to atmospheric chemistry, but the methods can be applied to other environmental data sets.
Introduction: Calcium-aluminum-rich inclusions (CAIs), are the first formed solids that define the age of the Solar System [1,2]. CAIs are thought to have condensed from nebular gas [3,4] within the first <1 Ma of Solar System formation [5,6]. CAIs have experienced numerous early Solar System processes including condensation, evaporation, melting, recrystallization, and aqueous alteration [e.g., 7]. The chemical, mineralogical, and textural diversity among CAIs results from a range of chemical and physical processes recorded during nebular and parent body epoch. This study aims to explore the mineralogical, textural, and chemical compositions of CAIs including the trace elemental abundances in CAI phases to determine the early Solar System processes recorded in them. Samples and Analytical Methods: We analyzed one CAI each from CV3 chondrites Northwest Africa (NWA) 5508 designated as ‘Saguaro’, and Northwest Africa (NWA) 12772 designated as ‘Hoopoe’. Back-scatter electron (BSE) images were collected using a Phenom XL scanning electron microscope (SEM) at the Lunar and Planetary Institute (LPI) and the JEOL JXA-8530F electron probe microanalyzer (EPMA) at Johnson Space Center (JSC)-NASA. Additionally, energy dispersive X-ray spectrometry (EDS) elemental maps of select areas for these samples were collected using a 15.0kV beam energy and a 40µA emission current. Using the EPMA, wavelength-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (WDS) quantitative data were collected. In-situ trace element measurements for both CAIs were determined at JSC-NASA using a Photon Machines 193nm laser ablation system and a Thermo-Scientific Element-XR inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometer (ICP-MS). Analyses consisted of 30s ablations at 10Hz, spot sizes of 20-25µm, and a fluence of 6.0 J/cm2 for anorthite and melilite, and a 3.5 J/cm2 fluence for all other phases. NIST612 was used to correct for instrument drift, while BHVO-2g was used as a primary calibration standard. BCR-2g and in-house mineral standards were regularly measured as unknowns to ensure accuracy. Results: Saguaro is a coarse-grained CAI, ~11 x 6 mm in dimensions. Saguaro contains spinel, Al-rich pyroxene, anorthite, Mg-rich melilite, and minor perovskite in its interior and is therefore classified as a Type B CAI. Individual melilite grains shows normal compositional zoning with an Ak content ranging from ~24 to 54 with no apparent trend from the core to the edge of the CAI. The spinel appears euhedral and occurs both as clusters and as spinel palisades [8]. Two rim sequences surround most of the sample: the inner rim being a Wark-Lovering (WL) rim (~10-35 µm) containing pyroxene, spinel, and melilite (or anorthite), and the outer rim is a finer-grained, thicker (~100 µm), accretionary rim (Fig. 1). The mineral phases in Saguaro record an overall flat REE pattern with an average negative Eu anomaly in pyroxene, and an average positive Eu anomaly in anorthite and melilite respectively. Anorthite, melilite, and pyroxene have a minor depletion in Tm (Fig. 2). The Hoopoe CAI is a compact, coarse-grained ~6 × 4 mm in size. The major mineralogy includes hibonite, spinel, melilite, anorthite, and perovskite. Therefore, it is classified as a compact transitional type A and B. (?)zoning was observed in some hibonites. Individual melilite grains show both reverse and normal zoning, where the Ak content ranges from ~6- to 28. Melilite shows two distinct textures. One texture consisted of smooth melilite that appeared homogenous, while the second appeared to consist of many fine fractures. The spinel also often appears clustered. The WL-rim sequence surrounding Hoopoe is ~25 µm thick and composed of spinel, perovskite, hibonite, and melilite/anorthite. It is then partially surrounded by an outer accretionary rim (~75µm). Like before, refractory metal nuggets appeared concentrated near the WL rims. Other metal assemblages rich in Fe and Ni were also observed. All major mineral phases in Hoopoe display relatively flat REE patterns, except for varying Eu and Tm between phases (Fig. 2). There is a prominent negative Eu anomaly in perovskite and an average positive Eu anomaly in spinel, anorthite, and hibonite respectively (Fig. 2, 3). The mixed phases along the rim of the CAI also display a negative Eu anomaly, and all phases the CAI were depleted in Pb. Discussion: The CV3 CAIs analyzed in this study were classified based on their mineralogy and textures into Type A versus Type B CAIs [10]. Hibonite appears to be pseudomorphically replacing the spinel, (i.e., is hibonite in composition, but appears in the shape of spinel). Spinel palisades. The presence of spinel palisades present in Saguaro are consistent with the melting and recrystallization experienced by this CAI. Trace elemental analyses. Saguaro and Hoopoe display similar trace element patterns to each other, with both appearing generally flat, with anomalies in Eu, and Tm. Melilite and anorthite display positive Eu anomalies in both CAIs, in addition to the hibonite in Hoopoe (Fig. 2). The phases that are depleted in Eu are pyroxene and perovskite in both Saguaro and Hoopoe, respectively (Fig. 3). Given that Eu is volatile in reducing environments [11], this could possibly indicate reducing conditions at the time anorthite and melilite crystallized, with the gas they formed from containing Eu. As these CAIs continued to form, this gas as a result would become depleted in Eu. This also could be supported by the propensity of anorthite and melilite to take up Eu from its surroundings and incorporate it into their structure [12]. In addition, analyzing the assemblage of the phases in the Saguaro, melilite and anorthite (Eu enriched) often surround the pyroxene (Eu depleted) as they are crystallized. This intergrowth of phases and the proximity of the phases would support that the Eu is being incorporated into some phases, preventing it from incorporating into other. Trace elemental analyses of the CAI rims will be evaluated in more detail, as they are complicated by the transient signal being composed of a mixture of mineral phases. Broadly, however, the patterns in the rims of both CAIs are comparable to each other, and for Hoopoe, to the mixed phase patterns in the core (Fig. 3). Other studies have found that CAI rims can be depleted in Ce and Yb [13], however we did not observe these anomalies in the two CAIs discussed here. Given their similarity, the trace elemental analyses of the mixed interior (i.e. core) and rim phases could be interpreted as forming from similar, if not the same, reservoirs. The REE abundance between the rim and core of Hoopoe are also similar, indicating they may have formed from a gas of the same or similar composition. Acknowledgments: We thank the ASU Center for Meteorite Studies for loaning the samples used in this work and Tabb Prissel for his assistance with the analysis. Mouti Al-Hashimi thanks Sam Crossley and Cyrena Goodrich for their help with the LPI SEM training. This work was supported by the LPI Summer Intern Program in Planetary Science and the LPI Cooperative Agreement. References: [1] Connelly J.N. (2012) Science, 338, 651-655. [2] MacPherson G. J. (2014) Treatise on Geochem., 2, 139-179. [3] Grossman L. (1972) GCA, 36, 597-619. [4] Ebel, D.S. (2006) Meteorites and the Early Solar System II (D. S. Lauretta & H. Y. McSween, Eds.) 253-277. [5] MacPherson G. J. (2012) Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 331-332, 43-54. [6] MacPherson G.J. (2017) GCA, 201, 65-82. [7] Krot A.N. (1995) Meteoritics & Planet. Sci., 30, 748-775. [8] Wark and Lovering (1982) GCA, 46, 2595-2607. [9] Palme H. and Jones A. (2003) Treatise on Geochemistry (H. D. Holland and K. K. Turekian Eds.), 1, 41-61. [10] Grossman L. (1980) Ann. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci., 8, 559-608. [11] Floss C. et al. (1996) GCA, 60, 1975-1997. [12] Mason B. and Martin P. M. (1974) Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 22, 141-144. [13] Wark B. and Boynton W. V. (2001) Meteoritics & Planet. Sci., 36, 1135-1166.
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Clouds play a key role in regulating the hydrological cycle and the Earth's radiative energy budget. However, global climate models (GCMs) with a horizontal grid spacing on the order of 100 km have limitations in representing sub-grid cloud dynamics with spatial scales on the order of 1 km, leading to potential uncertainties in cloud radiative feedback on the global scale. In our research, we will leverage the capabilities of Deep Machine Learning (DML) methods to construct parameterizations of sub-grid volumetric cloud fraction (VCF), which is the frequency of occurrence on a grid volume accumulated in the horizontal and vertical directions. Our investigation delves into the intricate relationship between VCF obtained from the NASA CALIPSO-CloudSat-CERES-MODIS (CCCM) satellite observation data and 3-D MERRA-2 reanalysis meteorological profiling data (e.g., wind, relative humidity, temperature). Through a comprehensive one-year data training utilizing the Sequence to Sequence DML method, we have successfully disentangled the complicated cloud formation dynamics across diverse meteorological conditions through a day-to-day analysis framework. Preliminary findings reveal promising statistical agreements in geographical and vertical distributions and seasonal variations of volumetric cloud fraction between ML prediction and satellite measurements. These results underscore the aptitude of our DML model to discern underlying cloud physical processes and accurately represent sub-grid cloud formation dynamics. Additionally, we have also employed trained neural network to analyze uncertainties arising from errors in meteorological data, further enhancing the robustness of our VCF parameterization.
It is argued that returned comet samples should be distributed to individual laboratories for analysis much in the same way that lunar samples are. In the context of emerging technologies, certain developments in other fields which may prove beneficial to the study of comets are reviewed, including cryogenic and tomographic techniques. It is noted that the lack of expertise in the area of cryogenic examination of comet samples is a current weakness in the ability of the extraterrestrial material community to handle comet samples and thus requires further training and preparations. Computer tomography scan images of a 'dirty snowball' are presented to illustrate the importance of developing new methods for comet sample analysis. It is suggested that microanalytic measurements of extraterrestrial samples at the atom-counting limit appear promising for the future.
A general summary of the MOD-1 wind turbine generator control system and simulation is presented. Mechanical and speed stabilization control means to add drive train damping were mentioned and MOD-1 simulation results showing the effects of speed stabilization are displayed.
From the perspective of scheduling, some medical consultations can have asynchronous and synchronous components. Consultations frequently involve the compilation of patient data, its analysis, a consultant's report, and a real-time conference between the referring physician and the consultant. The bandwidth of the Internet with Moscow and advances in the hardware and software of personal computing now make possible telemedicine events with store-and-forward components and real-time components. These are hybrid telemedicine and this paper describes such a case.
As a common phenomenon over Antarctica, blowing snow (BLSN), especially the large BLSN storms, play an important role in the Antarctic surface mass balance, radiation budget, and planetary boundary layer processes. This study presents the work on BLSN storm identification and analysis with observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard the Aqua satellite. Spectral analysis shows that BLSN identification is feasible with MODIS daytime data. A random forest machine learning model is developed and observations from the Cloud‐Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization are used for training. Model performance results show that machine‐learning based classification can achieve over 90% overall accuracy when classifying MODIS pixels into cloud, clear, and BLSN categories. The machine learning model is applied to MODIS observations during the month of October 2009 for BLSN storm analysis. Results show that the size of BLSN storms has a large spectrum and can reach hundreds of thousands km2. The MODIS based BLSN storm frequency map extends the Cloud‐Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations coverage limit from 82°S to the South Pole. A BLSN storm belt, which extends from the South Pole region to the coastal area between 130°E and 160°E along the Transantarctic Mountains, provides a potential pathway of snow transport. These results are important in improving the understanding of BLSN impact on Antarctic surface mass balance and boundary layer processes.
The Lower Mekong River Basin in Southeast Asia experiences frequent rainfall-triggered landslides especially during the monsoon season. In this study, the influence of land use and land cover change and other causative factors on landslide susceptibility is evaluated in the Lower Mekong Basin. Frequency ratio analysis is performed to quantify the relationship between LULC change and susceptibility. Detailed landslide inventory maps are used for analysis with yearly LULC maps. The LULC change is used as a contributing variable in a logistic regression-based susceptibility model with other variables including distance to roads, slope, aspect, forest loss, and soil properties. The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve and Area Under the Curve are estimated for the model trained by each landslide inventory. The models show good performance, with AUC values ranging from 0.697 to 0.958 and an average AUC equal to 0.820. Both the Frequency Ratio analysis and the Logistic Regression models indicate LULC change from agricultural land to forest has a positive correlation with landslide occurrence. The most significant factors in the models are found to be distance to roads, slope, and aspect. A better understanding of the effects of LULC on landslide susceptibility can be useful for local land and disaster management and for the implementation of LULC as a factor in future susceptibility models. Using datasets that are unique to the Lower Mekong region, this study provides additional insights into the relationship between causative factors and landslide activity to better inform regional and global landslide susceptibility modeling.
This study explores the use of a support vector machine (SVM) as the observation operator within a passive microwave brightness temperature data assimilation framework (herein SVM-DA) to enhance the characterization of snow water equivalent (SWE) over High Mountain Asia (HMA). A series of synthetic twin experiments were conducted with the NASA Land Information System (LIS) at a number of locations across HMA. Overall, the SVM-DA framework is effective at improving SWE estimates (~70% reduction in RMSE relative to the Open Loop) for SWE depths less than 200 mm during dry snowpack conditions. The SVM-DA framework also improves SWE estimates in deep, wet snow (~45% reduction in RMSE) when snow liquid water is well estimated by the land surface model, but can lead to model degradation when snow liquid water estimates diverge from values used during SVM training. In particular, two key challenges of using the SVM-DA framework were observed over deep, wet snowpacks. First, variations in snow liquid water content dominate the brightness temperature spectral difference (TB) signal associated with emission from a wet snowpack, which can lead to abrupt changes in SWE during the analysis update. Second, the ensemble of SVM-based predictions can collapse (i.e., yield a near-zero standard deviation across the ensemble) when prior estimates of snow are outside the range of snow inputs used during the SVM training procedure. Such a scenario can lead to the presence of spurious error correlations between SWE and TB, and as a consequence, can result in degraded SWE estimates from the analysis update. These degraded analysis updates can be largely mitigated by applying rule-based approaches. For example, restricting the SWE update when the standard deviation of the predicted TB is greater than 0.05 K helps prevent the occurrence of filter divergence. Similarly, adding a thin layer (i.e., 5 mm) of SWE when the synthetic TB is larger than 5 K can improve SVM-DA performance in the presence of a precipitation dry bias. The study demonstrates that a carefully constructed SVM-DA framework cognizant of the inherent limitations of passive microwave-based SWE estimation holds promise for snow mass data assimilation.
During the NASA TC-4 field campaign in July 2007, several Saharan dust events were observed over the Caribbean basin. A-Train observations suggest that these Saharan dust events are confined the Caribbean and rarely transported across Central America to the Pacific Ocean. We investigate the nature of this barrier to dust transport using the NASA GEOS-5 atmospheric general circulation model. Our simulations with GEOS-5 are driven by the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) meteorological analyses, and include online simulation of aerosol distributions using a version of the Goddard Chemistry, Aerosol, Radiation, and Transport (GOCART) model. Simulated dust distributions are evaluated using A-Train observations from MODIS and CALIOP, as well as MISR and ground-based AERONET sun photometers, and show good agreement with the observations in terms of the timing and magnitude of dust events. A component analysis of the dust transport and removal pathways is used to evaluate the relative roles of these processes in establishing the observed dust transport barrier. From this analysis, we show that while both atmospheric dynamics and wet removal contribute towards the Caribbean dust barrier, northward dust transport is the more dominant term. Additional simulations are performed to ascertain the sensitivity of our results to uncertain loss processes (i.e., wet removal) in our model.
Eye tracking may be a useful tool to investigate pilot monitoring and develop and conduct training. There is increased interest from airlines to use eye-tracking technologies in flight simulators. However, much is still unknown about how to best utilize eye-tracking data in pilot training. This paper presents eye-tracking results from a pilot-monitoring training study with 19 pilots. All pilots completed 15 monitoring challenges across four operational scenarios in a B737-700 full flight simulator. In addition, the study investigated the impact of having the flight director engaged or disengaged on the pilot monitoring side in the final approach. It was hypothesized that pilots would focus less on the primary flight display with the flight director off and look more around in the cockpit. To assess this, pilots performed half of the scenarios with the flight director on and half with the flight director off. However, pilots monitoring tended to look less at the primary flight display with the flight director on as indicated by lower Proportion Dwell Times, contrary to the hypothesis. Next, eye-tracking data were analyzed from two monitoring challenges involving waypoint restrictions and two involving extending the flaps at appropriate airspeeds. Pilots that successfully completed the challenges appeared to focus more on areas of interest that contained the most relevant information to successfully complete the challenge. In addition, successful pilots seemed to adapt their monitoring strategy more to the challenge at hand as observed by a distinct shift in focus on either the primary flight display or the navigation display depending on the challenge. Our findings suggest the importance of flexible gaze allocation across specific situations and raise the question whether and to what degree prespecified patterns of eye fixation can be identified and trained.
Eye tracking may be a useful tool to investigate pilot monitoring and develop and conduct training. There is increased interest from airlines to use eye-tracking technologies in flight simulators. However, much is still unknown about how to best utilize eye-tracking data in pilot training. This paper presents eye-tracking results from a pilot-monitoring training study with 19 pilots. All pilots completed 15 monitoring challenges across four operational scenarios in a B737-700 full flight simulator. In addition, the study investigated the impact of having the flight director engaged or disengaged on the pilot monitoring side in the final approach. It was hypothesized that pilots would focus less on the primary flight display with the flight director off and look more around in the cockpit. To assess this, pilots performed half of the scenarios with the flight director on and half with the flight director off. However, pilots monitoring tended to look less at the primary flight display with the flight director on as indicated by lower Proportion Dwell Times, contrary to the hypothesis. Next, eye-tracking data were analyzed from two monitoring challenges involving waypoint restrictions and two involving extending the flaps at appropriate airspeeds. Pilots that successfully completed the challenges appeared to focus more on areas of interest that contained the most relevant information to successfully complete the challenge. In addition, successful pilots seemed to adapt their monitoring strategy more to the challenge at hand as observed by a distinct shift in focus on either the primary flight display or the navigation display depending on the challenge. Our findings suggest the importance of flexible gaze allocation across specific situations and raise the question whether and to what degree prespecified patterns of eye fixation can be identified and trained.
A knowledge based system (KBS) methodology designed to study human machine interactions and levels of autonomy in allocation of process control tasks is presented. Users are provided with operation manuals to assist them in normal and abnormal situations. Unfortunately, operation manuals usually represent only the functioning logic of the system to be controlled. The user logic is often totally different. A method is focused on which illicits user logic to refine a KBS shell called an Operator Assistant (OA). If the OA is to help the user, it is necessary to know what level of autonomy gives the optimal performance of the overall man-machine system. For example, for diagnoses that must be carried out carefully by both the user and the OA, interactions are frequent, and processing is mostly sequential. Other diagnoses can be automated, in which the case the OA must be able to explain its reasoning in an appropriate level of detail. OA structure was used to design a working KBS called HORSES (Human Orbital Refueling System Expert System). Protocol analysis of pilots interacting with this system reveals that the a-priori analytical knowledge becomes more structured with training and the situation patterns more complex and dynamic. This approach can improve the a-priori understanding of human and automatic reasoning.
The present paper describes potential applications of neural networks in the multilevel decomposition based optimal design of structural systems. The generic structural optimization problem of interest, if handled as a single problem, results in a large dimensionality problem. Decomposition strategies allow for this problem to be represented by a set of smaller, decoupled problems, for which solutions may either be obtained with greater ease or may be obtained in parallel. Neural network models derived through supervised training, are used in two distinct modes in this work. The first uses neural networks to make available efficient analysis models for use in repetitive function evaluations as required by the optimization algorithm. In the second mode, neural networks are used to represent the coupling that exists between the decomposed subproblems. The approach is illustrated by application to the multilevel decomposition-based synthesis of representative truss and frame structures.