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At least 505 records · Page 28
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Amplified drought trends in Nepal increase the potential for Himalayan wildfires

Here we report in the spring 2021, Nepal underwent a record wildfire season in which active fires were detected at a rate 10 times greater than the 2002–2020 average. Prior to these major wildfire events, the country experienced a prolonged precipitation deficit and extreme drought during the post-monsoon period (starting in October 2020). An analysis using observational, reanalysis, and climate model ensemble data indicates that both climate variability and climate change-induced severe drought conditions were at play. Further analysis of climate model outputs suggests the likely reoccurrence of drought conditions, thus favoring active wildfire seasons in Nepal throughout the twenty-first century. While the inter-model uncertainty is large and direct modeling of wildfire spread and suppression has not been completed, the demonstrated relationship between a drought index (the standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index) and subsequent fire activity may offer actionable opportunities for forest managers to employ the monitoring and projection of climate anomalies at sub-seasonal to decadal timescales to inform their management strategies for Nepal’s wildlands.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Neutron scattering in photosynthesis research: recent advances and perspectives for testing crop plants

The photosynthetic performance of crop plants under a variety of environmental factors and stress conditions, at the fundamental level, depends largely on the organization and structural flexibility of thylakoid membranes. These highly organized membranes accommodate virtually all protein complexes and additional compounds carrying out the light reactions of photosynthesis. Most regulatory mechanisms fine-tuning the photosynthetic functions affect the organization of thylakoid membranes at different levels of the structural complexity. In order to monitor these reorganizations, non-invasive techniques are of special value. On the mesoscopic scale, small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) has been shown to deliver statistically and spatially averaged information on the periodic organization of the thylakoid membranes in vivo and/or, in isolated thylakoids, under physiologically relevant conditions, without fixation or staining. More importantly, SANS investigations have revealed rapid reversible reorganizations on the timescale of several seconds and minutes. In this paper, we give a short introduction into the basics of SANS technique, advantages and limitations, and briefly overview recent advances and potential applications of this technique in the physiology and biotechnology of crop plants. We also discuss future perspectives of neutron crystallography and different neutron scattering techniques, which are anticipated to become more accessible and of more use in photosynthesis research at new facilities with higher fluxes and innovative instrumentation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Energetic Electron Precipitation Driven by Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron Waves from ELFIN’s Low Altitude Perspective

We review comprehensive observations of electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) wave-driven energetic electron precipitation using data collected by the energetic electron detector on the Electron Losses and Fields InvestigatioN (ELFIN) mission, two polar-orbiting low-altitude spinning CubeSats, measuring 50-5000 keV electrons with good pitch-angle and energy resolution. EMIC wave-driven precipitation exhibits a distinct signature in energy-spectrograms of the precipitating-to-trapped flux ratio: peaks at >0.5 MeV which are abrupt (bursty) (lasting ~17 s, or ΔL ~ 0.56) with significant substructure (occasionally down to sub-second timescale). We attribute the bursty nature of the precipitation to the spatial extent and structuredness of the wave field at the equator. Multiple ELFIN passes over the same MLT sector allow us to study the spatial and temporal evolution of the EMIC wave - electron interaction region. Case studies employing conjugate ground-based or equatorial observations of the EMIC waves reveal that the energy of moderate and strong precipitation at ELFIN approximately agrees with theoretical expectations for cyclotron resonant interactions in a cold plasma. Using multiple years of ELFIN data uniformly distributed in local time, we assemble a statistical database of ~50 events of strong EMIC wave-driven precipitation. Most reside at L ~ 5 – 7 at dusk, while a smaller subset exists at L ~ 8 – 12 at post-midnight. The energies of the peak-precipitation ratio and of the half-peak precipitation ratio (our proxy for the minimum resonance energy) exhibit an L-shell dependence in good agreement with theoretical estimates based on prior statistical observations of EMIC wave power spectra. The precipitation ratio’s spectral shape for the most intense events has an exponential falloff away from the peak (i.e., on either side of ~ 1.45 MeV). It too agrees well with quasi-linear diffusion theory based on prior statistics of wave spectra. It should be noted though that this diffusive treatment likely includes effects from nonlinear resonant interactions (especially at high energies) and nonresonant effects from sharp wave packet edges (at low energies). Sub-MeV electron precipitation observed concurrently with strong EMIC wave-driven >1 MeV precipitation has a spectral shape that is consistent with efficient pitch-angle scattering down to ~ 200-300 keV by much less intense higher frequency EMIC waves at dusk (where such waves are most frequent). At ~100 keV, whistler-mode chorus may be implicated in concurrent precipitation. These results confirm the critical role of EMIC waves in driving relativistic electron losses. Nonlinear effects may abound and require further investigation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Initial Conditions of Planet Formation: Time Constraints from Small Bodies and the Lifetime of Reservoirs in the Solar Protoplanetary Disk

This review explores the timescales of the initial phase of planet formation, from nebular dust (CAIs and chondrules) to planetesimal accretion and differentiation, using evidence from meteorite research. Aluminium-Mg systematics of CAIs indicate either an extended period of CAI formation (∼0.3 Ma) or an initial 26 Al heterogeneity, with evidence supporting a homogeneous 26 Al abundance in the protoplanetary disk. Thermal and aqueous alteration on the parent body can disturb the U-Pb and Al-Mg chronometers in chondrules. Focusing on relatively robust isochron data from plagioclase of pristine (types ≤3.05) chondrites indicates a shift in chondrule formation locations, moving from the inner to the outer disk over time. Ages of basaltic achondrites show that silicate differentiation on small bodies was well underway within the first few million years (Ma) of our solar system. Their age record, however, reveals inconsistencies between different chronometers, partly caused by (i) secondary disturbances due to thermal metamorphism, aqueous alteration, or impacts, (ii) the presence of xenolithic minerals, and (iii) potentially variable initial 26 Al abundances due to disturbances at the mineral scale. Nucleosynthetic isotope data indicate that parent bodies of iron and stony meteorites formed in two distinct regions within the protoplanetary disk: the inner, non-carbonaceous (NC) and the outer, carbonaceous (CC) region. Based on Hf-W chronometry it has been demonstrated that NC and CC parent bodies of magmatic iron meteorites segregated their cores within ∼1–3 Ma after CAI formation, implying that parent body accretion occurred within <1 Ma in both reservoirs. Combining accretion ages with nucleosynthetic data further reveals that, at first order, NC and CC reservoirs in the solar protoplanetary disk were established within 1 Ma and existed over several Ma with limited exchange between them. In the CR chondrite accretion region of the disk, planetary bodies formed over at least 3 Ma, while in most other regions, formation spanned at least 1 Ma, with minimal changes in nucleosynthetic isotope compositions. Aerodynamical size sorting of dust likely introduced or amplified some of these variations.

26Al distribution↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Fresh Take: Seasonal Changes in Terrestrial Freshwater Inputs Impact Salt Marsh Hydrology and Vegetation Dynamics

Abstract Salt marshes exist at the terrestrial-marine interface, providing important ecosystem services such as nutrient cycling and carbon sequestration. Tidal inputs play a dominant role in salt marsh porewater mixing, and terrestrially derived freshwater inputs are increasingly recognized as important sources of water and solutes to intertidal wetlands. However, there remains a critical gap in understanding the role of freshwater inputs on salt marsh hydrology, and how this may impact marsh subsurface salinity and plant productivity. Here, we address this knowledge gap by examining the hydrologic behavior, porewater salinity, and pickleweed ( Sarcocornia pacifica also known as Salicornia pacifica) plant productivity along a salt marsh transect in an estuary along the central coast of California. Through the installation of a suite of hydrometric sensors and routine porewater sampling and vegetation surveys, we sought to understand how seasonal changes in terrestrial freshwater inputs impact salt marsh ecohydrologic processes. We found that salt marsh porewater salinity, shallow subsurface saturation, and pickleweed productivity are closely coupled with elevated upland water level during the winter and spring, and more influenced by tidal inputs during the summer and fall. This seasonal response indicates a switch in salt marsh hydrologic connectivity with the terrestrial upland that impacts ecosystem functioning. Through elucidating the interannual impacts of drought on salt marsh hydrology, we found that the severity of drought and historical precipitation can impact contemporary hydrologic behavior and the duration and timing of the upland-marsh hydrologic connectivity. This implies that the sensitivity of salt marshes to climate change involves a complex interaction between sea level rise and freshwater inputs that vary at seasonal to interannual timescales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Shortened Duration of Global Warming Slowdowns with Elevated Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Continuous emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols in the last 160 years have resulted in an increasing trend of global mean surface temperatures (GMSTs). Due to interactions with natural variability, rates of the combined anthropogenically and naturally induced warming trends are characterized by significant slowdowns and speedups on decadal timescales. In this work, by analyzing observed and model-simulated data, we investigate how the duration of these episodes will change with different strengths of GHG and aerosol forcing. We found that the duration of warming slowdowns can be more than 30 yr with a slower rate of anthropogenic emissions but would shorten to about 5 yr with a higher one. This duration reduction depends on both the magnitude of the climate response to anthropogenic forcing and the strength of the internal variability. Moreover, the warming slowdowns can still occur even towards the end of this century under high emissions scenarios but with significantly shortened duration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Self-organization of photoionized plasmas via kinetic instabilities

Abstract Self-organization in an unmagnetized collisionless plasma (in this paper) refers to formation of transient coherent structures such as collective oscillations (electrostatic waves) or magnetic fields resulting from so-called kinetic effects in the plasma. This topical review provides a comprehensive analysis of the self-organization of strong-field photoionized, non-equilibrium plasmas through kinetic instabilities. The authors propose and demonstrate a novel experimental platform that enables the formation of dense plasmas with known highly anisotropic and non-thermal electron velocity distribution functions on a timescale on the order of an inverse electron plasma frequency. We then show that such plasmas are highly susceptible to a hierarchy of kinetic instabilities, including two-stream, current filamentation and Weibel, that convert a fraction of the electron kinetic energy into electric and/or magnetic energy stored in self-organized structures. The electrostatic waves so produced are measured using a collective light (Thomson) scattering technique with femtosecond resolution as the kinetic instabilities aided by collisions eventually thermalize the plasma electrons. In addition, we describe a novel experimental technique that has made it possible to map the temporal evolution of the wavenumber spectrum of the thermal Weibel instability with picosecond resolution, which leads to the formation of quasi-static coherent magnetic fields with different topologies in photoionized plasmas. Finally, the paper summarizes the important results and discusses future directions on this topic.

Zhang, Chaojie (ORCID:0000000180353014)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Formation and interior evolution of Mars

The formation and earliest evolution of Mars involved core formation followed by magma ocean solidification and primordial crust formation. Here, in this study, we review the formation and early interior evolution of Mars as understood through meteorite studies. Martian meteorites exhibit ages that span the entire history of the Solar System, but most derive from compositionally distinct sources that formed early in the history of Mars. Geochemical and isotopic studies of Martian meteorites have provided critical information on Mars’ building blocks, bulk composition, and its differentiation into a core, mantle and crust. Radiogenic isotope systems provide vital insights into the petrogenesis of Martian meteorite source regions and into the nature and timescales of primordial differentiation on Mars. Application of short-lived isotope chronometers to Martian meteorites indicates that the Martian core formed early within <10 million years (Ma), while magma ocean differentiation and crust formation occurred soon thereafter, within the first tens of Ma of Solar System history. Bulk silicate Mars is variably depleted in moderately volatile elements relative to chondrites, but to a lesser extent than the Earth. The nature and evolution of more volatile elements and volatile species on Mars (e.g., H 2 O, C, S, halogens) remains an active area of investigation, but overall suggest that Mars is more enriched in volatile elements than the Moon but less than the Earth. While geochemical exploration of Mars coupled with new discoveries of Martian meteorites has provided a wealth of information, the compositional and lithologic diversity on Mars significantly exceeds that seen in the suites of Martian meteorites currently studied. This implies that our current perspective on the planet's evolution is very likely biased, highlighting the need for future sample return missions to Mars.

Kruijer, Thomas S.↗
DOE OSTI2025

2032 and 2036 risk enhancement from NEOs in the Taurid stream: Is there a significant coherent component to impact risk?

Impact risk is normally quantified by summing the product of the probability of an event and some measure of its consequences over the set of all possible events. The probability factor is considered to be more objective and is based on the size frequency distribution of Near Earth objects (NEOs) and an implicit assumption of randomness, which can be described as “stochastic risk”. Impact frequency does change with time, however, and there have been episodes in the deep geological past when the flux has been much higher. The hypothesis of “coherent catastrophism” suggests large variations on shorter timescales. It postulates the existence of a “Taurid resonant swarm” (TRS) of debris associated with Comet Encke that is stabilized by Jupiter and in a 7:2 resonance with it. The hypothetical cluster orbits in the broad Taurid stream, which crosses Earth's orbit twice a year at its nodes. Whereas the most extreme and fanciful versions of coherent catastrophism in recent geologic history have been comprehensively refuted, the possibility of a significant component of coherent (time-dependent) risk, associated with non-random correlated events, remains. This paper incorporates recently published data from observational campaigns associated with the Taurid stream. There is no evidence for objects in the Taurid stream that are above the global catastrophe threshold, but the possibility of a few large objects and a significant population of objects the size of the Chelyabinsk or Tunguska bodies has not been eliminated. Eyewitness accounts and comparison of airburst models to ground truth suggest that the Tunguska object was a Beta Taurid. The Tunguska event is probably an outlier when compared to the size frequency distributions under stochastic assumptions, but if there is a significant coherent component it may be representative of events that take place far more frequently, and risk assessments may have underestimated the contribution from airbursts. If so, the Earth will experience increased risk from objects this size, peaking in November 2032 and June 2036. We recommend targeted survey campaigns during these hypothetical TRS node crossings to quantify the population, search for potentially hazardous objects, and identify imminent impactors.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Atomistic modeling of surface and grain boundary dislocation nucleation in FCC metals

Dislocation nucleation plays a critical role in the plastic deformation of crystalline materials. However, it is challenging to predict the active mode and associated rate of dislocation nucleation under typical experimental loading conditions through molecular dynamics simulation due to timescale limitations. In this report we use the free-end nudged elastic band method to determine the activation energies and activation volumes of dislocation nucleation in four typical face-centered cubic metals of Au, Al, Cu and Ni. We focus on the representative processes of surface and grain boundary dislocation nucleation. The atomistically determined activation volumes of these dislocation nucleation processes are larger than 10b3 (with b being the Burgers vector length) under typical experimental loading conditions. These results are compared with experimentally measured activation volumes in ultrafine-grained and nanocrystalline metals, thereby providing mechanistic insight into their rate-controlling deformation mechanisms.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Transient nature of fast relaxation in metallic glass

Metallic glasses exhibit fast mechanical relaxations at temperatures well below the glass transition, one of which shows little variation with temperature known as nearly constant loss (NCL). Despite the important implications of this phenomenon to deformation, the origin of the relaxation is unclear. Through molecular dynamics simulations of a model metallic glass, Cu 64.5 Zr 35.5 , we implement molecular dynamics dynamical mechanical spectroscopy (MD-DMS) with system stress decomposed into atomic-level stresses to identify the group of atoms responsible for NCL. This work demonstrates that NCL relaxation is due to transient groups of atoms that revert to the typical atomic-level viscoelastic behavior over picosecond timescales. They are homogenously distributed throughout the glass and have no outstanding features, rather than having defect-like local structure as previously reported.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

In-situ qualification and physics-based process design for aerosol jet printing via spatially correlated light scattering measurements

Aerosol jet printing is a contactless, digital, and additive technique broadly used for manufacturing flexible, hybrid, and conformal electronics. However, batch-to-batch variability has hindered widespread industry adoption and scaling to production volumes. Recently, light scattering measurements have emerged as a tool to measure aerosol volume fraction – a key parameter determining deposition rate – and have proven an effective feedback source for closed loop control on timescales ranging from minutes to hours. Here, the efficacy of light scattering measurements as a tool for in-situ qualification over shorter time durations is explored. To be the linear relationship between light scattering measurements and deposition rate was validated at 500 ms time intervals, allowing deposition rate to be mapped to positional coordinates and providing a new data stream to drive quality control assessments. Because light scattering measurements are indicative of a physical process parameter, they were substituted into equations for resistance and sheet resistance, resulting in predictions nominally within 10% of measured values for sets of printed devices. Finally, to highlight a more active utility, light scattering measurements were employed in a print repair framework, successfully repairing prints with randomly induced defects to within 5% of the measured resistance of a control set.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying soil organic matter stock distribution and origin following over a century of maize-based cropping in the former tallgrass prairie region of central USA

Tallgrass prairie conversion to maize-based agriculture in central North America has resulted in substantial loss of soil organic carbon (SOC) in less than two centuries. However, evaluations of how management practices may mitigate SOC losses are generally limited in soil depth and/or duration, missing long-term SOC stock outcomes that manifest over timescales of decades or longer. To address this, we sampled soils in year 145 of the Morrow Plots experiment to (i) evaluate effects of crop rotation and fertility management on SOC stocks and (ii) distinguish prairie- versus maize-derived SOC after continuous maize cropping since 1876 using stable carbon isotope ( 13 C) natural abundance. Soil organic carbon stock by equivalent soil mass (ESM) was + 30.7 Mg C ha −1 (+31.7 %) higher under maize-oat-alfalfa than continuous maize, but similar between maize-soybean and continuous maize. NPK fertilization and manuring did not influence SOC stocks by ESM. Response of SOC stocks at 15 cm depth intervals to NPK fertilization varied by depth and crop rotation, with lower SOC stocks at 30–45 cm under continuous maize and maize-soybean. Maize-derived C ranged 19.5–59.6 % of SOC stock across depths, indicating the majority of SOC was still derived from tallgrass prairie even after 145 years of continuous maize cropping. Our results confirm the potential of diversified crop rotation for minimizing SOC losses relative to tallgrass prairie at the supracentennial scale, and highlight the importance of relic prairie soil organic matter for future crop production in central North America.

crop rotation↗
DOE OSTI2020

Geospatial coherence of surface-atmosphere fluxes in the upper Great Lakes region

Surface-atmosphere fluxes are known to vary at multiple time scales, but uncertainty is high as to how fluxes change spatially within regions. With an increase in the number of eddy covariance towers, we are now able to examine the geospatial coherence of ecosystem fluxes, using time-series correlation. Eighteen sites from Michigan and Wisconsin were used in this study, ranging from 100 m to 600 km apart. Surface-atmosphere fluxes from a six-month period were used to quantify spatial coherence on a pair-wise basis. Using geospatial statistics, carbon and sensible heat (H) fluxes were found to be 95% correlated directly outside of their flux footprint and 56% correlated up to a distance of ~35 km. Latent (LE) and momentum (τ) fluxes were less correlated, 83% directly outside of their flux footprint and 40% at a distance of ~130 km albeit, at a much larger spatial distance than for the carbon and sensible heat fluxes. All fluxes showed strong spectral resonance at diel and seasonal timescales, with 1-, 2- and 3-month periods being common modes of variability among H, LE, and τ fluxes. Results based on Empirical Orthogonal Function show distinct transitions of net ecosystem exchange from fall to winter before photosynthesis or respiration while H and τ do not exhibit coherent trends. Here, this work demonstrates the potential of quantifying geospatial coherence of surface-atmosphere fluxes in the Midwestern United States, with the ability to predict fluxes beyond the spatial limit of a single flux tower footprint. Ultimately, expanding the flux measurements to larger scales would allow better spatial scaling of terrestrial surface-atmosphere fluxes between tower footprint and modeling or remote sensing scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating irrigation water use from remotely sensed evapotranspiration data: Accuracy and uncertainties at field, water right, and regional scales

Irrigated agriculture is the dominant user of water globally, but most water withdrawals are not monitored or reported. As a result, it is largely unknown when, where, and how much water is used for irrigation. Here, we evaluated the ability of remotely sensed evapotranspiration (ET) data, integrated with other datasets, to calculate irrigation water withdrawals and applications in an intensively irrigated portion of the United States. We compared irrigation calculations based on an ensemble of satellite-driven ET models from OpenET with reported groundwater withdrawals from hundreds of farmer irrigation application records and a statewide flowmeter database at three spatial scales (field, water right group, and management area). At the field scale, we found that ET-based calculations of irrigation agreed best with reported irrigation when the OpenET ensemble mean was aggregated to the growing season timescale (bias = 1.6–4.9%, R 2 = 0.53–0.74), and agreement between calculated and reported irrigation was better for multi-year averages than for individual years. At the water right group scale, linking pumping wells to specific irrigated fields was the primary source of uncertainty. At the management area scale, calculated irrigation exhibited similar temporal patterns as flowmeter data but tended to be positively biased with more interannual variability. Disagreement between calculated and reported irrigation was strongly correlated with annual precipitation, and calculated and reported irrigation agreed more closely after statistically adjusting for annual precipitation. The selection of an ET model was also an important consideration, as variability across ET models was larger than the potential impacts of conservation measures employed in the region. From these results, we suggest key practices for working with ET-based irrigation data that include accurately accounting for changes in soil moisture, deep percolation, and runoff; careful verification of irrigated area and well-field linkages; and conducting application-specific evaluations of uncertainty.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Neutron transport methods for multiphysics heterogeneous reactor core simulation in Griffin

Griffin is a reactor physics application based on the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE). This work discloses the methods, algorithms, and implementation for simulating heterogeneous reactor dynamics models. Griffin utilizes a discontinuous finite-element method with discrete ordinates (DFEM-S ) to discretize the field variable of the multigroup neutron transport equation. Multiphysics feedback is handled using two-step tabulated cross-section methodology. Feedback quantities are evaluated using the MOOSE-MultiApp system to couple various engineering phenomena, such as heat conduction and thermal fluids. The multiphysics DFEM-S system is solved using fixed-point iteration with a fully asynchronous parallel sweeper, unstructured coarse-mesh finite difference acceleration, and a multi-timescale improved quasi-static method scheme. The implementation is applied to a multiphysics microreactor model, with two transients: one initiated by a single heat-pipe failure and another by control drum rotation. Importantly, these examples demonstrate the ability of Griffin to tractably solve the neutron transport equation considering seven independent variables and feedback.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fluctuation-driven excess noise near superconducting phase transition

We discuss intrinsic mechanisms of nonequilibrium excess noise in superconducting devices and transition edge sensors. In particular, we present an overview of fluctuation-driven contributions to the current noise in the vicinity of the superconducting transition. We argue that sufficiently close to the critical temperature fluctuations of conductivity may become correlated provided that the rate of quasiparticle relaxation is slow as compared to dynamics of superconducting fluctuations. In this regime, fluctuations of conductivity adiabatically follow the fluctuations of the electron distribution. This leads to a substantial enhancement of current noise. Here, the corresponding spectral power density of noise has a Lorentzian shape in the frequency domain while its magnitude scales proportionally to the inelastic relaxation time. It also sensitively depends on the dephasing and Ginzburg–Landau timescales. Further estimates suggest that this mechanism dominates over the conventional temperature fluctuations in the same range of parameters. To describe these effects microscopically, we use the nonequilibrium Keldysh technique in the semiclassical approximation of superconductivity with Boltzmann–Langevin random forces to account for correlations of fluctuations.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

Can Wholesale Electricity Markets Achieve Resource Adequacy and High Clean Energy Generation Targets in the Presence of Self-Interested Actors?

Wholesale electricity markets are intended to incentivize system generation investments and operations outcomes that meet evolving system needs. In this work, we evaluate the effectiveness of wholesale market structures, rules and policies in achieving system resource adequacy (RA) and clean energy targets in the presence of self-interested generation investors using the Electricity Markets and Investment Suite Agent-based Simulation (EMIS-AS) model. Results highlight that both capacity markets and operating reserve demand curves (ORDCs) can help achieve a reliable system but with different RA compliance timelines and distribution of generation technologies. Structures with capacity markets tend to favor more capital-intensive peaking technologies while reducing wind and solar build-outs due to suppressed energy and clean energy market prices, particularly in the absence of strong clean energy targets. Conversely, ORDCs improve the commitment of available generation units, but this comes at the expense of higher system costs and renewable generation curtailment. We also find that well-calibrated static capacity demand curves can yield similar reliability and total cost compared to capacity market demand curves informed dynamically by resource adequacy while also yielding stable annual capacity prices. Different approaches to formulating ORDC curves can also yield key trade-offs, namely that a more efficient treatment of storage chronology results in lower ORDC curves and prices, yielding less investment and cost but at the expense of reliability. Finally, the effectiveness of wholesale electricity markets in practically achieving very high clean energy generation targets highly depends on the cost-competitiveness of clean energy technologies that can support critical balancing needs across multiple timescales.

capacity expansion↗