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At least 505 records · Page 28

Systematically tracking the hourly progression of large wildfires using GOES satellite observations

Abstract. In the western United States, prolonged drought, a warming climate, and historical fuel buildup have contributed to larger and more intense wildfires as well as to longer fire seasons. As these costly wildfires become more common, new tools and methods are essential for improving our understanding of the evolution of fires and how extreme weather conditions, including heat waves, windstorms, droughts, and varying levels of active-fire suppression, influence fire spread. Here, we develop the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES)-Observed Fire Event Representation (GOFER) algorithm to derive the hourly fire progression of large wildfires and create a product of hourly fire perimeters, active-fire lines, and fire spread rates. Using GOES-East and GOES-West geostationary satellite detections of active fires, we test the GOFER algorithm on 28 large wildfires in California from 2019 to 2021. The GOFER algorithm includes parameter optimizations for defining the burned-to-unburned boundary and correcting for the parallax effect from elevated terrain. We evaluate GOFER perimeters using 12 h data from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS)-derived Fire Event Data Suite (FEDS) and final fire perimeters from the California's Fire and Resource Assessment Program (FRAP). Although the GOES imagery used to derive GOFER has a coarser resolution (2 km at the Equator), the final fire perimeters from GOFER correspond reasonably well to those obtained from FRAP, with a mean Intersection-over-Union (IoU) of 0.77, in comparison to 0.83 between FEDS and FRAP; the IoU indicates the area of overlap over the area of the union relative to the reference perimeters, in which 0 is no agreement and 1 is perfect agreement. GOFER fills a key temporal gap present in other fire tracking products that rely on low-Earth-orbit imagery, where perimeters are available at intervals of 12 h or longer or at ad hoc intervals from aircraft overflights. This is particularly relevant when a fire spreads rapidly, such as at maximum hourly spread rates of over 5 km h−1. Our GOFER algorithm for deriving the hourly fire progression using GOES can be applied to large wildfires across North and South America and reveals considerable variability in the rates of fire spread on diurnal timescales. The resulting GOFER product has a broad set of potential applications, including the development of predictive models for fire spread and the improvement of atmospheric transport models for surface smoke estimates. The resulting GOFER product has a broad set of potential applications, including the development of predictive models for fire spread and the improvement of atmospheric transport models for surface smoke estimates (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8327264, Liu et al., 2023).

Geology↗

Cosmogenic 10 Be in pyroxene: laboratory progress, production rate systematics, and application of the 10 Be– 3 He nuclide pair in the Antarctic Dry Valleys

Here, we present cosmogenic- 10 Be and cosmogenic- 3 He data from Ferrar dolerite pyroxenes in surficial rock samples and a bedrock core from the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, with the goal of refining the laboratory methods for extracting beryllium from pyroxene, further estimating the 10 Be production rate in pyroxene and demonstrating the applicability of 10 Be– 3 He in mafic rock. The ability to routinely measure cosmogenic 10 Be in pyroxene will open new opportunities for quantifying exposure durations and Earth surface processes in mafic rocks. We describe scalable laboratory methods for isolating beryllium from pyroxene, which include a simple hydrofluoric acid leaching procedure for removing meteoric 10 Be and the addition of a pH 8 precipitation step to reduce the cation load prior to ion exchange chromatography. 10 Be measurements in pyroxene from the surface samples have apparent 3 He exposure ages of 1–6 Myr. We estimate a spallation production rate for 10 Be in pyroxene, referenced to 3 He, of 3.6 ± 0.2 atoms g –1 yr –1 . 10 Be and 3 He measurements in the bedrock core yield initial estimates for parameters associated with 10 Be and 3 He production by negative-muon capture ($f_{10}^{*}$ = 0.00183 and $f_{3}^{*}f_{C}f_{D}$ = 0.00337). Next, we demonstrate that the 10 Be– 3 He pair in pyroxene can be used to simultaneously resolve erosion rates and exposure ages, finding that the measured cosmogenic-nuclide concentrations in our surface samples are best explained by 2–8 Myr of exposure at erosion rates of 0–35 cm Myr –1 . Finally, given the low 10 Be in our laboratory blanks (average of 5.7 × 10 3 atoms), the reported measurement precision, and our estimated production rate, it should be possible to measure 2 g samples with 10 Be concentrations of 6 × 10 4 and 1.5 × 10 4 atoms g –1 with 5 % and 15 % uncertainty, respectively. With this level of precision, Last Glacial Maximum to Late Holocene surfaces can now be dated with 10 Be in pyroxene. Application of 10 Be in pyroxene, alone or in combination with 3 He, will expand possibilities for investigating glacial histories and landscape change in mafic rock.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Systematic identification of cis -regulatory variants that cause gene expression differences in a yeast cross

Sequence variation in regulatory DNA alters gene expression and shapes genetically complex traits. However, the identification of individual, causal regulatory variants is challenging. Here, we used a massively parallel reporter assay to measure the cis-regulatory consequences of 5832 natural DNA variants in the promoters of 2503 genes in the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae. We identified 451 causal variants, which underlie genetic loci known to affect gene expression. Several promoters harbored multiple causal variants. In five promoters, pairs of variants showed non-additive, epistatic interactions. Causal variants were enriched at conserved nucleotides, tended to have low derived allele frequency, and were depleted from promoters of essential genes, which is consistent with the action of negative selection. Causal variants were also enriched for alterations in transcription factor binding sites. Models integrating these features provided modest, but statistically significant, ability to predict causal variants. This work revealed a complex molecular basis for cis-acting regulatory variation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A Systematic Approach to Light Load Calculation for DG Un-Intentional Islanding

With the influx of distributed generation (DG) penetration, power utilities have adopted active anti-islanding protection methods to prevent an unintentional islanding condition. One commonly used protection scheme is implemented through the use of a transfer trip from the upline connected substation to the DG facility and is required when the capacity of connected DGs exceed a certain threshold of local minimum load. The threshold established by standard IEEE 1547.2-2009 states that a 3:1 minimum load to generation ratio is acceptable to ensure the DG will not sustain an unintentional island. However, the term “minimum load” is not precisely defined in any standard, and in practice, a light load value is chosen by engineers through manual methods that can be inconsistent, not representative and change drastically based on various cases. To solve this problem, this paper proposes a new light load calculation method creating consistency and better accuracy; the method has been implemented in. NET C# application and is used within Dominion Energy.

Chen, Le↗

WBS 2.2.1.402 - Wave-SPARC: Systematic Process & Analysis for Reaching Commercialization

Wave-SPARC is empowering the marine energy community with the tools necessary to achieve a significant improvement in techno-economic performance of wave generated grid power. A detailed systems engineering approach simultaneously balances around 100 cost and performance drivers (functional requirements and capabilities) of wave energy converters (WECs). Publicly accessible technology innovation and assessment methods and tools (new to the wave energy sector) have been delivered. They guide technology development trajectories to successful outcomes in less time, at less overall cost, and with less encountered risk. Through the use of these methods and tools along with proven structured inventive techniques the project continues to deliver high potential novel wave energy technology concepts for validation and subsequent development by industry. The intended outcomes are: (1) Invention, assessment, identification, verification and validation of novel and high techno-economic-potential WEC technology concepts to deliver high-confidence "seeds" for subsequent industrial development to full commercial application and economic viability (2) Development and delivery of WEC technology innovation and assessment methodologies and tools and provision of these as services and for free use by industry and the entire sector (3) International collaboration for global best practice alignment of assessment and innovation methods.

innovation↗

Systematic Study of Projection Biases in Weak Lensing Analysis

The nature of Dark Energy is possibly one of the most fundamental questions in Physics today. Comprising 70% of the energy density of the Universe, and being responsible for the accelerated expansion of the Universe, this mysterious form of energy with negative pressure is challenging our current understanding of the fundamental laws of nature. Cosmological parameters like total relative matter Density Ωm, the normalization of power spectrum σ8 and their combination S8 = σ8 p Ωm/0.3 are used to quantify our understanding of the evolution of the large-scale structure in the Universe and shed light on the accelerated expansion, caused by the Dark Energy, that started about halfway through the life of the Universe. Sky surveys, like Dark Energy Survey (DES), utilize weak lensing analysis to use the observations of galaxies and their shapes and extract these cosmological parameters. By doing an exhaustive study and quantifying the projection biases in the weak lensing statistics, the research work presented in this dissertation aims to contribute to the precise measurements of the cosmological parameters Ωm, σ8, and S8. For the analysis, we used the standard cosmological model that includes dark energy as the cosmological constant. And, we used the data taken by the DES experiment, which is one of the most complete, deep, and wide field surveys of the sky today.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Identifying Energy Inefficiencies in Compressed Air Systems: A Systematic Approach with the Compressed Air Scoping Tool

This paper highlights the importance of improving compressed air systems, outlines the tool’s development and features, and underscores its value as a nonbiased resource for system evaluation and optimization. Additionally, the paper presents a case study based on a food manufacturing facility to demonstrate the practical application of the tool. Furthermore, the paper discusses potential future opportunities for enhancing the CA Scoping Tool.

compressed air benchmarking↗

Isotope Production Education and Research via a Systematic Study of Photo-nuclear Reaction Yields and Excitation Functions

A new collaboration between the New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Idaho State University, and Idaho National Laboratory builds the domestic workforce in isotope production and related science and technologies by conducting research and education programs related to photo-nuclear reactions. Workforce development was identified by the Department of Energy’s Office of Science in the Reaching a New Energy Sciences Workforce (RENEW) program that seeks to engage underrepresented university students in isotope production activities. This collaboration includes coursework development, student training, and isotope production research utilizing photo-nuclear reactions at electron linear accelerators. Bremsstrahlung-weighted excitation functions and cross-sections will be measured and the use of nanomaterials to exploit kinematic recoil reactions will be investigated. Students will be hosted at the Idaho National Laboratory where mentors will provide opportunities to explore careers in nuclear science and technology. This presentation regards the ongoing progress of the research and education objectives of the collaboration that was performed under the Office of Science Isotopes Program under award number D000-22-2765.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Study of neutrino oscillations and flux systematics in the NOvA experiment at Fermilab

The Standard Model of particle physics explains many experimental results using three generations of quarks, leptons, and their interactions, but fails to account for phenomena such as neutrino masses, matter-antimatter asymmetry, gravity, and the hierarchy problem. The study of neutrinos, especially neutrino oscillations, is crucial for advancing Beyond the Standard Model physics and the future of particle physics.newline

Sharma, Prachi [Panjab U.] (ORCID:0000000276586664↗

Enhancing Sterile Neutrino Oscillation Sensitivities using SBND-PRISM at the Short-Baseline Neutrino Programme

The Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Programme at Fermilab is comprised of two detectors, SBND and ICARUS, placed at $110$\,m and $600$\,m along the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermilab. The key physics aim of the programme is to definitively test the sterile neutrino hypothesis, a proposed fourth flavour of neutrino that may explain certain experimental anomalies seen regarding standard model neutrino oscillations. To be able to detect the existence of sterile neutrinos, the uncertainties of the programme must be well constrained. To enable this, a robust analysis must be constructed that can consistently identify the correct values of systematic parameters and generate accurate predictions of what the neutrino energy spectrum at ICARUS should look like. SBND's design allows for the introduction of a technique called PRISM. In PRISM, the detector is divided into regions of different off axis angles from the beam, forming different samples where systematics impact each one in a distinct way. This allows any fits performed to obtain a better understanding of the correct value of the systematic parameters. The first analysis included in this thesis focuses on the improvements seen to the sensitivity of SBN to sterile oscillation parameters when using a PRISM configuration instead of treating SBND as a single whole. Focusing on the $5\sigma$ exclusion contour from the $\numu$ disappearance channel using three PRISM samples, an improvement on the order of $30$\,\% is seen, extending the parameter space for which the null hypothesis can be excluded. This thesis also presents a series of mock data studies comparing the abilities of SBND and PRISM analyses, concluding that in the case of simple changes between Monte Carlo (MC) and data, PRISM produces predictions of the ICARUS event rate spectrum that are more accurate and have smaller uncertainties. When moving to more realistic mock data, using different models to create the mock data than were used for the MC, the postfit predictions at ICARUS had a smaller difference between the postfit and mock data reconstructed energy spectra across all mock data samples tested. Finally, a covariance matrix defined by the maximum discrepancy between the postfit and mock data spectra at ICARUS from each of the SBND and PRISM fits across all the samples was constructed. The resultant $1\sigma$ fractional error induced by this bias systematic on the postfit spectrum has a smaller magnitude for PRISM than SBND, with the improvements ranging from $2.21$\,\% to $6.26$\,\% depending on the mock data samples. This summarises the reduction in systematic error when using PRISM instead of treating SBND as a single detector. *************************************** AUTHOR = Slater, Bethany University of Liverpool b.slater2@liverpool.ac.uk TITLE = Enhancing Sterile Neutrino Oscillation Sensitivities using SBND-PRISM at the Short-Baseline Neutrino Programme PAGES = 218 NOTE = Ph.D. University of Liverpool March 2026 ABSTRACT = The Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Programme at Fermilab is comprised of two detectors, SBND and ICARUS, placed at $110$\,m and $600$\,m along the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermilab. The key physics aim of the programme is to definitively test the sterile neutrino hypothesis, a proposed fourth flavour of neutrino that may explain certain experimental anomalies seen regarding standard model neutrino oscillations. To be able to detect the existence of sterile neutrinos, the uncertainties of the programme must be well constrained. To enable this, a robust analysis must be constructed that can consistently identify the correct values of systematic parameters and generate accurate predictions of what the neutrino energy spectrum at ICARUS should look like. SBND's design allows for the introduction of a technique called PRISM. In PRISM, the detector is divided into regions of different off axis angles from the beam, forming different samples where systematics impact each one in a distinct way. This allows any fits performed to obtain a better understanding of the correct value of the systematic parameters. The first analysis included in this thesis focuses on the improvements seen to the sensitivity of SBN to sterile oscillation parameters when using a PRISM configuration instead of treating SBND as a single whole. Focusing on the $5\sigma$ exclusion contour from the $\numu$ disappearance channel using three PRISM samples, an improvement on the order of $30$\,\% is seen, extending the parameter space for which the null hypothesis can be excluded. This thesis also presents a series of mock data studies comparing the abilities of SBND and PRISM analyses, concluding that in the case of simple changes between Monte Carlo (MC) and data, PRISM produces predictions of the ICARUS event rate spectrum that are more accurate and have smaller uncertainties. When moving to more realistic mock data, using different models to create the mock data than were used for the MC, the postfit predictions at ICARUS had a smaller difference between the postfit and mock data reconstructed energy spectra across all mock data samples tested. Finally, a covariance matrix defined by the maximum discrepancy between the postfit and mock data spectra at ICARUS from each of the SBND and PRISM fits across all the samples was constructed. The resultant $1\sigma$ fractional error induced by this bias systematic on the postfit spectrum has a smaller magnitude for PRISM than SBND, with the improvements ranging from $2.21$\,\% to $6.26$\,\% depending on the mock data samples. This summarises the reduction in systematic error when using PRISM instead of treating SBND as a single detector.

Slater, Bethany [Liverpool U.]↗