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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 505 records · Page 28
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Electronic specific heat capacities and entropies from density matrix quantum Monte Carlo using Gaussian process regression to find gradients of noisy data

In this work, we present a machine learning approach to calculating electronic specific heat capacities for a variety of benchmark molecular systems. Our models are based on data from density matrix quantum Monte Carlo, which is a stochastic method that can calculate the electronic energy at finite temperature. As these energies typically have noise, numerical derivatives of the energy can be challenging to find reliably. In order to circumvent this problem, we use Gaussian process regression to model the energy and use analytical derivatives to produce the specific heat capacity. From there, we also calculate the entropy by numerical integration. We compare our results to cubic splines and finite differences in a variety of molecules in which Hamiltonians can be diagonalized exactly with full configuration interaction. We finally apply this method to look at larger molecules where exact diagonalization is not possible and make comparisons with more approximate ways to calculate the specific heat capacity and entropy.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimal Control of Differentially Private EV Charging: A Scalable Learning Approach Under Uncertainty

Internet of Things (IoT)-enabled electric vehicles (IoEVs) enable intelligent charging coordination that accounts for grid congestion. However, increased data exchange raises privacy concerns, as charging patterns can reveal sensitive driver behavior to grid operators. Here, we propose a differentially private (DP) EV charging framework that enables coordinated control while protecting driver data with theoretical privacy guarantees. Nevertheless, integrating DP inevitably introduces uncertainty into the control strategy for EVs, which can lead to infeasible solutions. To tackle this challenge, we develop a feasible and scalable control algorithm based on constrained reinforcement learning (CRL) and convex hulls. While our framework is designed to handle the uncertainty introduced by DP, it is general and also applicable to other sources of uncertainty in EV charging, such as the stochastic nature of driver behavior and renewable variability. This ensures feasible and privacy-preserving coordination of EV charging at scale. Our method constructs convex hulls within the action space to guarantee feasibility under stochastic constraints and incorporates constraint reduction techniques to improve scalability. Case studies based on IEEE benchmark systems demonstrate that the proposed approach effectively balances feasibility under uncertainty, scalability, and privacy in large-scale EV charging control.

Engineering - Power transmission and distribution↗
DOE OSTI2026

Benchmarking quantum trial wavefunctions for phaseless auxiliary-field quantum Monte Carlo

The phaseless auxiliary-field quantum Monte Carlo (ph-AFQMC) method is a stochastic imaginary-time projection technique for computing ground-state properties of strongly correlated quantum systems, with accuracy that depends critically on the choice of trial wavefunction. Here, we investigate ph-AFQMC with trial states prepared using parameterized quantum circuits. In this work, we present a comprehensive benchmarking study of quantum trial wavefunctions spanning unitary coupled-cluster, Hamiltonian-informed, Jastrow-inspired, and adaptively constructed ansatze. The benchmarking evaluates accuracy, expressibility, and scalability of these ansatze within the QC-AFQMC framework. We test these ansatze on linear hydrogen chains under bond stretching and find that several ansatz families produce chemically accurate ph-AFQMC energies across the dissociation curve. We have performed simulations using the CUDA-Q quantum development platform on the GPU partition of the Perlmutter supercomputer. When comparing ansatze at similar numbers of variational parameters, we find that different ansatz families yield comparable ph-AFQMC results despite exhibiting substantially different variational energies, optimization costs, and circuit depths. Our results indicate that the variational energy of an ansatz is not always a reliable indicator of its quality for ph-AFQMC and reveal instances of over-parameterization. In the strongly correlated regime, trial wavefunctions obtained from adaptive ansatze, exemplified here by ADAPT-VQE with the UCCSD operator pool, can outperform their fixed-ansatz counterparts (UCCSD) in terms of projected energies while using substantially more compact circuits, providing a flexible route to optimize quantum resources within the ph-AFQMC framework.

Rofougaran, Rod [LBNL, Berkeley; Columbia U.; PNL,↗
DOE OSTI2022

An Operational Resilience Metric to Evaluate Inertia and Inverter-based Generation on the Grid

In an effort to reduce carbon emissions and curtail the effects of climate change there has been considerable effort to increase the penetration of inverter-based renewable energy sources. The adoption of renewable generation over conventional inertia-based generation sources is forming considerable challenges for the operation and stability of the power system. The power system has been designed around generation units characterized by high inertia and primary frequency response (PFR), allowing them to respond to disturbances such as faults or generators tripping off line. In contrast, the modern inverter-based assets are characterized by no contribution to inertia and they typically provide stochastic generation at their maximum output, thus having no contribution to PFR during low-frequency disturbance events. Because of this, inertia in power systems is reducing, resulting in a faster rate of frequency change after a disturbance occurs. As more inverter-based generation units are added to the grid it is important to understand the stability of the system and the size of disturbance a system is capable of withstanding. This paper presents a resilience metric that evaluates the maximum size of disturbance a systems can withstand based on the system inertia and the primary frequency control of inverter and inertia-based generation. The results are shown visually and are based on the real-time operation of generation units and their characteristics such as latency, ramp rates, and energy constraints. It is demonstrated that the real-time positioning or bias of the generating units has an effect of the size of disturbance that a system can withstand, i.e. its resilience. It is expected that this type of analysis can help operators increase the resilience of power systems in the future.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Validation of Hygrothermal Simulations with Wall Performance Experiments in an Environmental Chamber

Oak Ridge National Laboratory is developing a web tool, built on a rule-based expert system, that aids stakeholders in designing energy-efficient moisture-durable walls. Currently, the tool’s expert system database is mostly populated with expert opinion, but work is being done to incorporate durability assessment based on stochastic hygrothermal modeling. Chamber experiments have been conducted to validate the hygrothermal models. The measured temperature and humidity have been compared with those predicted by the hygrothermal model. Experiments and comparison to one-dimensional hygrothermal modeling results were completed with two walls, a Structural Insulated Panel (SIP) based wall and a Concrete Masonry Unit (CMU) based wall. The two walls were succumbed to typical Chicago weather in ORNL’s Heat, Air and Moisture chamber. The walls were sequentially exposed to different scenarios, including diffusion, wetting, air leakage and solar radiation. For the most part, the hygrothermal simulations can be successfully used to predict the performance of these wall systems for the moisture transport phenomenon. Errors between measured and simulated values decreased as measurements got closer to the interior side of the wall. The root mean square error was larger for relative humidity (up to 17.5%-RH for CMU) than for temperature (up to 4.5°C for CMU wall). The errors were larger for the CMU wall than the wood frame wall. The phenomenon, including liquid water, caused large discrepancies between measurement and simulation results, and simulated results showed slower drying of materials than measured results. The one-dimensional nature of the simulation model made simulating air leaks difficult but not impossible.

Salonvaara, Mikael↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis of Non-Nuclear Advanced Controls Testbed Reactor Mockup

The research presented in this report describes our progress in applying stochastic methods and uncertainty quantification, parametric study, and variance-based sensitivity analysis (also known as Sobol sensitivity analysis) to a full-core model of a nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) system simulated with Griffin, with the goal of developing a reduced order (surrogate) model which can be rapidly sampled while perturbing multiple input parameters. In this NTP system, reactivity and power feedback affect the rotation of control drums, which are controlled by a hybrid proportional, integral and derivative (PID) controller, actuated by the power demand and reactivity feedback from the numerical model. This model uses reactor kinetic feedback (mean generation time and $\beta$ from a transient Griffin simulation executed with the improved quasi-static method to provide the kinetic parameters) as inputs to functions which control the CD rotation angle. Using a number of stochastic method approaches, we developed a dual purpose training-surrogate model of the NTP system using polynomial regression. The trained model can be rapidly sampled while simultaneously perturbing various input parameters of the model, such as coefficients on the PID control, or temperature (directly affect the neutron cross section). The surrogate model delivers accurate results orders-of-magnitude faster (minutes, not days) than the base model. Once the base model has been trained, distributions of the uncertain parameters can be changed at will to investigate the effects of perturbing multiple inputs and their effect on the output. For example, coefficients used in the PID control system may vary due to some physical interference, or there may be uncertainty in the temperature of the neutron cross sections in various regions of the reactor. A distribution can be placed on these parameters and operational boundaries can be determined. The goal of this work is to support development of an advanced control system to operate CDs in a functioning NTP system.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Stochastic Reduced-Order Model for Statistical Microstructure Descriptors Evolution

Integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) models have been a crucial building block for modern materials development, relieving heavy reliance on experiments and significantly accelerating the materials design process. However, ICME models are also computationally expensive, particularly with respect to time integration for dynamics, which hinders the ability to study statistical ensembles and thermodynamic properties of large systems for long time scales. To alleviate the computational bottleneck, we propose to model the evolution of statistical microstructure descriptors as a continuous-time stochastic process using a non-linear Langevin equation, where the probability density function (PDF) of the statistical microstructure descriptors, which are also the quantities of interests (QoIs), is modeled by the Fokker–Planck equation. In this work, we discuss how to calibrate the drift and diffusion terms of the Fokker–Planck equation from the theoretical and computational perspectives. The calibrated Fokker–Planck equation can be used as a stochastic reduced-order model to simulate the microstructure evolution of statistical microstructure descriptors PDF. Considering statistical microstructure descriptors in the microstructure evolution as QoIs, we demonstrate our proposed methodology in three integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) models: kinetic Monte Carlo, phase field, and molecular dynamics simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Systems-Level Approach to Address Risks and Ethics in Artificial Intelligence Systems

Artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly changing the world, from completely controlling routine or mundane tasks like text and image generation, to powering advanced algorithms that control critical systems. The recent advances in generative AI quickly overwhelmed multiple industries from education to finance as first adopters rushed (and continue to rush) to take advantage of the technology. The expanding AI ecosystem presents novel risks and ethical challenges that must be handled to ensure that technology is leveraged fairly and ethically. There are intertwined risks and ethical challenges stemming from the stochastic nature of AI (i.e., intrinsic risks), as well as from specific applications (i.e., extrinsic risks). Appropriately regulating AI requires a systems-approach to develop an integrated solution to these dependent challenges. Thus far, however, questions of risk, ethics and regulation appear to occupy separate spaces. This paper reviews the risks and ethical implications of AI and proposes a system-level approach to integrating ethics and regulation for the nascent industry.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Adaptive PID Gain Scheduling Control for Hydropower Turbine Using Neural CDE and Stochastic Distribution Shaping

This paper introduces a gain-scheduling PID controller design strategy for hydroturbine frequency control mode. This scheme first uses real data to learn the nonlinear dynamics of the hydroturbine using neural controlled differential equations and then perturbs the obtained nonlinear system at different equilibrium points, based on which a static output feedback adaptive dynamic programming algorithm is then used to optimize the PID gains for each equilibrium point. Moreover, a continuous-time version of stochastic distribution control is proposed to further fine-tune the optimized PID gains. Finally, the controller is obtained by implementing linear interpolation between the optimized PID control gains. The simulation results show that the proposed gain-scheduling PID controller can control a larger range of operation points compared with the given fixed PID controller and the baseline method. Compared with the given fixed PID controller, the proposed gain-scheduling PID controller can regulate hydroturbine frequency against disturbances induced by power-load variation with over 50% less overshoot for some operation points.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating and Improving Convective Parameterization for GCMs Using ARM Observations. Final report

This technical report summarizes the achievements during the project period funded by the Atmospheric System Research (ASR) program. The general goal of the project is to improve the representation of atmospheric deep convection in global climate models. By using DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program observations and a hierarchy of models from cloud-resolving to global climate models, we evaluated and improved many aspects of convection parameterization schemes, such as the trigger function for convection and closure condition to determine the amount of convection. We also incorporated the stochasticity of convection into a convection scheme. These improvements, when implemented into the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the DOE Exascale Energy Earth System Model (E3SM), led to improved simulation of precipitation characteristics, including precipitation intensity, Intertropical Convergence Zone, and Madden-Julian oscillation. The project also improved the representation of microphysical processes in convective clouds. It enables the interaction of cloud microphysics with aerosols in weather and climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Stochastic Thermo-Hydro Modeling and Neural Network Surrogate Development for Thermal Resource Assessment of the Galleries-to-Calories Geobattery

The Galleries-to-Calories Geobattery concept explores the use of abandoned coal mine workings for large-scale thermal energy transport and storage. The system involves injecting waste heat from a supercomputing facility into flooded mine galleries, where groundwater flow can store and transport thermal energy for potential recovery in downgradient district heating and cooling applications. To evaluate the feasibility and performance of the Geobattery under geological and operational uncertainty, we developed a suite of stochastic thermo-hydrological (TH) simulations using Monte Carlo sampling of key uncertain parameters (e.g., permeability, porosity, thermal conductivity, specific heat capacity) and operating conditions (e.g., injection rate, injection temperature). Results identified injection rate and temperature as the most influential parameters governing thermal front propagation, while the geometry of the room-and-pillar structure played a critical role in directing the extent and orientation of thermal advancement. Optimal combinations of material properties for maximizing heat recovery were also determined. To address the high computational cost of coupled-process stochastic modeling, we trained a neural network surrogate model on 24,000 physics-based realizations, achieving an R² > 0.99 and MAE < 0.1 for temperature predictions at monitoring locations. This surrogate enabled an additional 100,000 realizations for global sensitivity analysis and probabilistic thermal resource assessment. The integrated stochastic physics–surrogate modeling framework offers a computationally efficient tool for quantifying uncertainty, identifying key drivers, and informing early-stage design decisions for Geobattery systems.

15 - GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Probabilistic Voltage Sensitivity Analysis to Quantify Impact of High PV Penetration on Unbalanced Distribution System

From an operational and planning perspective, it is important to quantify the impact of increasing penetration of photovoltaics on the distribution system. Most existing impact assessment studies are scenario-based where derived results are scenario specific and not generalizable. Moreover, stochasticity in the temporal behavior of spatially distributed PVs requires a large number of scenarios that increase with the size of the network and the level of penetration. Therefore, we propose a new computationally efficient analytical framework of voltage sensitivity analysis that allows for stochastic analysis of voltage change due to random changes in PV generation. We first derive an analytical approximation for voltage change at any node of the network due to change in power at other nodes in an unbalanced distribution network. The quality of this approximation is reinforced via bounds on the approximation error. Then, we derive the probability distribution of voltage change at a certain node due to random changes in power injections/consumptions at multiple locations of the network. The accuracy of the proposed PVSA is illustrated using a modified version of the IEEE 37 bus test system. As a result, the proposed PVSA can serve as a powerful tool for proactive monitoring/control and ease the computational burden associated with perturbation based cybersecurity mechanisms.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Tunable Stochasticity in an Artificial Spin Network

Metamaterials present the possibility of artificially generating advanced functionalities through engineering of their internal structure. Artificial spin networks, in which a large number of nanoscale magnetic elements are coupled together, are promising metamaterial candidates that enable the control of collective magnetic behavior through tuning of the local interaction between elements. In this work, the motion of magnetic domain-walls in an artificial spin network leads to a tunable stochastic response of the metamaterial, which can be tailored through an external magnetic field and local lattice modifications. This type of tunable stochastic network produces a controllable random response exploiting intrinsic stochasticity within magnetic domain-wall motion at the nanoscale. An iconic demonstration used to illustrate the control of randomness is the Galton board. In this system, multiple balls fall into an array of pegs to generate a bell-shaped curve that can be modified via the array spacing or the tilt of the board. A nanoscale recreation of this experiment using an artificial spin network is employed to demonstrate tunable stochasticity. Furthermore, this type of tunable stochastic network opens new paths toward post-Von Neumann computing architectures such as Bayesian sensing or random neural networks, in which stochasticity is harnessed to efficiently perform complex computational tasks.

Artificial spin network↗
DOE OSTI2024

Frequency Support From Electric Vehicles for Advancing Renewable Energy Integration

The integration of renewable energy resources (RERs) in the modern power grid is increasing rapidly because of aggressive decarbonization goals, lower costs, and increased government investment. However, higher penetrations of inverter-based generation can lead to frequency stability issues because of reduced system inertia. This paper develops a framework for quantifying the contribution of electric vehicles (EVs) toward providing frequency support to the grid and thus increasing the penetration limit of renewable energy resources (RERs). EVs are considered to provide both inertial response and primary frequency response support to the grid. A stochastic approach incorporating the uncertainties associated with the behavior of EVs is developed to derive the discharge limit of EV aggregators. A multi-machine system frequency response (MM-SFR) model is developed, which incorporates the dynamic virtual inertia and droop coefficients of EV aggregators derived from the EV control modules. Frequency security constraints are developed from this MM-SFR model, which, along with the converter voltage security and low voltage ride-through constraints, are integrated within a nonlinear optimization framework to determine the RER integration limit. Here, the efficacy of the proposed approach is validated using the RTS-GMLC test system.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Topology, criticality, and dynamically generated qubits in a stochastic measurement-only Kitaev model

Here we consider a paradigmatic solvable model of topological order in two dimensions, Kitaev's honeycomb Hamiltonian, and turn it into a measurement-only dynamics consisting of stochastic measurements of two-qubit bond operators. We find an entanglement phase diagram that resembles that of the Hamiltonian problem in some ways, while being qualitatively different in others. When one type of bond is dominantly measured, we find area-law entangled phases that protect two topological qubits (on a torus) for a time exponential in system size. This generalizes the recently proposed idea of Floquet codes, where logical qubits are dynamically generated by a time-periodic measurement schedule, to a stochastic setting. When all types of bonds are measured with comparable frequency, we find a critical phase with a logarithmic violation of the area law, which sharply distinguishes it from its Hamiltonian counterpart. The critical phase has the same set of topological qubits, as diagnosed by the tripartite mutual information, but protects them only for a time polynomial in system size. Furthermore, we observe an unusual behavior for the dynamical purification of mixed states, characterized at late times by the dynamical exponent z = $\frac{1}{2}$ a superballistic dynamics made possible by measurements.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sensitivity Analysis in the Presence of Intrinsic Stochasticity for Discrete Fracture Network Simulations

Abstract Large‐scale discrete fracture network (DFN) simulators are standard fare for studies involving the sub‐surface transport of particles since direct observation of real world underground fracture networks is generally infeasible. While these simulators have successfully been used in several engineering applications, estimates of output quantities of interest (QoI) — such as breakthrough time of particles reaching the edge of the system — suffer from two distinct types of uncertainty. A run of a DFN simulator requires several parameters to be set that dictate the placement and size of fractures, the density of fractures, and the overall permeability of the system; uncertainty on the proper parameters will lead to uncertainty in the QoI, called epistemic uncertainty. Furthermore, since these input settings to DFN simulators control the stochastic processes which place fractures and govern flow, understanding how this randomness affects the QoI requires several runs of the simulator at distinct random seeds. The uncertainty in the QoI attributed to different realizations (i.e., different seeds) of the same random process (i.e., identical input parameters) leads to a second type of uncertainty, called aleatoric uncertainty. In this paper, we perform a Sensitivity Analysis, which directly attributes the uncertainty observed in the QoI to the epistemic uncertainty from each input parameter and to the aleatoric uncertainty. Beyond the specific takeaways on which input variables influence uncertainty in the QoI the most, a major contribution of this paper is the introduction of a statistically rigorous workflow for characterizing the uncertainty in DFN flow simulations that exhibit heteroskedasticity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Influence of inhomogeneous stochasticity on the falsifiability of mean-field theories and examples from accretion disc modelling

ABSTRACT Despite spatial and temporal fluctuations in turbulent astrophysical systems, mean-field theories can be used to describe their secular evolution. However, observations taken over time scales much shorter than dynamical time scales capture a system in a single state of its turbulence ensemble. Comparing with mean-field theory can falsify the latter only if the theory is additionally supplied with a quantified precision. The central limit theorem provides appropriate estimates to the precision only when fluctuations contribute linearly to an observable and with constant coherent scales. Here, we introduce an error propagation formula that relaxes both limitations, allowing for non-linear functional forms of observables and inhomogeneous coherent scales and amplitudes of fluctuations. The method is exemplified in the context of accretion disc theories, where inhomogeneous fluctuations in the surface temperature are propagated to the disc emission spectrum – the latter being a non-linear and non-local function of the former. The derived precision depends non-monotonically on emission frequency. Using the same method, we investigate how binned spectral fluctuations in telescope data change with the spectral resolving power. We discuss the broader implications for falsifiability of a mean-field theory.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗