SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Statistical simulation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 505 records · Page 28

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS2005

Separating the Chemical and Dynamical Contributions to the Ozone Change

Statistical analysis is used to extract the sensitivity of ozone to changes in stratospheric chlorine due to emissions of chlorofluorcarbons from the observed ozone record. The statistical analysis relies on a model that accounts for natural variations in ozone including the seasonal cycle, the solar cycle, variations in aerosols due to volcanic eruption, and the quasi- biennial oscillation, A noise term includes contributions to ozone variability due to inter-annual variability in the stratospheric circulation not due to the quasi-biennial oscillation, The residual circulation varies due to variability in planetary wave forcing, and studies using meteorological analyses show that the build-up of ozone over the winter is correlated with the planetary wave Eliassen-Palm flux. This variability in the residual circulation is not included in the statistical model, and contributes to the apparent ozone sensitivity to chlorine derived from observations for 1979 - 2000. We have investigated these relationships using multi-decadal simulations of our off-line chemistry and transport model (CTM). Our simulations use meteorological fields output from a 50 year simulation of a general circulation model (GCM). A 50 climatology specifies the sea surface temperatures to produce the GCM simulation. The CTM was used with these winds to produce two simulations, one in which the boundary conditions for chlorofluorcarbons and other source gases vary as specified for 1973-2022 by the Scenario A2 of the World Meteorological Organization ozone assessment, and the second with source gases fixed to their 1979 values. The same statistical analysis used to derive trends from observations is applied to the CTM output. When applied to the difference between the two simulations the statistical analysis provides a more precise measure of the ozone sensitivity to chlorine change. We are testing ways of including the interannual variability in the residual circulation in the statistical model so that we can derive the same result from the Scenario A2 simulation as is obtained when the statistical analysis is applied to the difference between the two simulations. This should provide direction as to how to account for the changes in ozone due to interannual variability in the residual circulation in the statistical model that is applied to the observed data record.

Douglass, Anne R.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Periodicity significance testing with null-signal templates: reassessment of PTF’s SMBH binary candidates

Periodograms are widely employed for identifying periodicity in time series data, yet they often struggle to accurately quantify the statistical significance of detected periodic signals when the data complexity precludes reliable simulations. We develop a data-driven approach to address this challenge by introducing a null-signal template (NST). The NST is created by carefully randomizing the period of each cycle in the periodogram template, rendering it non-periodic. It has the same frequentist properties as a periodic signal template, and we show with simulations that the distribution of false positives is the same as with the original periodic template, regardless of the underlying data. Thus, performing a periodicity search with the NST acts as an effective simulation of the null (no-signal) hypothesis, without having to simulate the noise properties of the data. We apply the NST method to the supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHB) search in the Palomar Transient Factory (PTF), where Charisi et al. had previously proposed 33 high signal-to-noise candidates utilizing simulations to quantify their significance. Our approach reveals that these simulations do not capture the complexity of the real data. There are no statistically significant periodic signal detections above the non-periodic background. To improve the search sensitivity, we introduce a Gaussian quadrature based algorithm for the Bayes Factor with correlated noise as a test statistic. We show with simulations that this improves sensitivity to true signals by more than an order of magnitude. However, the Bayes Factor approach also results in no statistically significant detections in the PTF data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1985

Statistical comparison of galaxy formation models - The bispectrum

To discriminate between galaxy-formation models that give similar two-point correlation functions, higher moments, specifically the three-point function in transform space or bispectrum, are looked to for an ensemble of numerical simulations. Different behaviors of this statistic are found that can be used to distinguish between classes of models. Up to the uncertainty in identifying the galaxy distribution with the mass distribution in the models, the results seem to prefer the isothermal or the cold-particle models. No model, however, agrees in all detail with the observational bispectrum of the Shane-Wirtanen galaxy catalog.

Fry, J. N.↗

NASA NTRS1981

The influence of autocorrelation in signature extraction: An example from a geobotanical investigation of Cotter Basin, Montana

The presence of positive serial correlation (autocorrelation) in remotely sensed data results in an underestimate of the variance-covariance matrix when calculated using contiguous pixels. This underestimate produces an inflation in F statistics. For a set of Thematic Mapper Simulator data (TMS), used to test the ability to discriminate a known geobotanical anomaly from its background, the inflation in F statistics related to serial correlation is between 7 and 70 times. This means that significance tests of means of the spectral bands initially appear to suggest that the anomalous site is very different in spectral reflectance and emittance from its background sites. However, this difference often disappears and is always dramatically reduced when compared to frequency distributions of test statistics produced by the comparison of simulated training sets possessing equal means, but which are composed of autocorrelated observations.

Labovitz, M. L.↗

NASA NTRS1982

The influence of autocorrelation in signature extraction - An example from a geobotanical investigation of Cotter Basin, MT

Labovitz, M. L.↗

NASA NTRS1984

The influence of autocorrelation in signature extraction - An example from a geobotanical investigation of Cotter Basin, Montana

The presence of positive serial correlation (autocorrelation) in remotely sensed data results in an underestimate of the variance-covariance matrix when calculated using contiguous pixels. This underestimate produces an inflation in F statistics. For a set of Thematic Mapper Simulator data (TMS), used to test the ability to discriminate a known geobotanical anomaly from its background, the inflation in F statistics related to serial correlation is between 7 and 70 times. This means that significance tests of means of the spectal bands initially appear to suggest that the anomalous site is very different in spectral reflectance and emittance from its background sites. However, this difference often disappears and is always dramatically reduced when compared to frequency distributions of test statistics produced by the comparison of simulated training sets possessing equal means, but which are composed of autocorrelated observations.

Labovitz, M. L.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Cloud Properties at Scott Base: Comparing Ceilometer Observations With ERA5, JRA55, and MERRA2 Reanalyses Using an Instrument Simulator

This study compares CL51 ceilometer observations made at Scott Base, Antarctica, with statistics from the ERA5, JRA55, and MERRA2 reanalyses. To enhance the comparison we use a lidar instrument simulator to derive cloud statistics from the reanalyses which account for instrumental factors. The cloud occurrence in the three reanalyses is slightly overestimated above 3 km, but displays a larger underestimation below 3 km relative to observations. Unlike previous studies, we see no relationship between relative humidity and cloud occurrence biases, suggesting that the cloud biases do not result from the representation of moisture. We also show that the seasonal variation of cloud occurrence and cloud fraction, defined as the vertically integrated cloud occurrence, are small in both the observations and the reanalyses. We also examine the quality of the cloud representation for a set of weather states derived from ERA5 surface winds. The variability associated with grouping cloud occurrence based on weather state is much larger than the seasonal variation, highlighting weather state is a strong control of cloud occurrence. All the reanalyses continue to display underestimates below 3 km and overestimates above 3 km for each weather state. But the variability in ERA5 statistics matches the changes in the observations better than the other reanalyses. We also use a machine learning scheme to estimate the quantity of supercooled liquid water cloud from the ceilometer observations. Ceilometer low-level supercooled liquid water cloud occurrences are considerably larger than values derived from the reanalyses, further highlighting the poor representation of low-level clouds in the reanalyses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Exploring Microsimulation Process for Energy Impact Evaluation of Connected and Automated Vehicles

In this paper, the authors present a microsimulation-based methodological approach for evaluating the energy impact of connected and automated vehicles (CAVs). They use an open-source micro-simulator, SUMO, and provide a way to set up a simulation environment that emulates real-world traffic dynamics. They also employ the Intelligent Driver Model to represent human drivers and calibrate its driving behavior using real-world traffic data and driving statistics. The authors conduct extensive simulation studies considering different penetration rates of CAVs, different car-following models, and varying car-following model parameters. Using the state-of-the-art Future Automotive System Technology Simulator (FASTSim), they estimate the fuel economy of each vehicle and analyze the energy impact of the given CAV implementation. Finally, the authors analyze the possible factors affecting the simulation results, and also discuss limitations and future work.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

NASA NTRS2001

Maximum Likelihood Estimation of the Broken Power Law Spectral Parameters with Detector Design Applications

The maximum likelihood procedure is developed for estimating the three spectral parameters of an assumed broken power law energy spectrum from simulated detector responses and their statistical properties investigated. The estimation procedure is then generalized for application to real cosmic-ray data. To illustrate the procedure and its utility, analytical methods were developed in conjunction with a Monte Carlo simulation to explore the combination of the expected cosmic-ray environment with a generic space-based detector and its planned life cycle, allowing us to explore various detector features and their subsequent influence on estimating the spectral parameters. This study permits instrument developers to make important trade studies in design parameters as a function of the science objectives, which is particularly important for space-based detectors where physical parameters, such as dimension and weight, impose rigorous practical limits to the design envelope.

Howell, Leonard W.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Assessment of the Mars Science Laboratory Entry, Descent, and Landing Simulation

On August 5, 2012, the Mars Science Laboratory rover, Curiosity, successfully landed inside Gale Crater. This landing was only the seventh successful landing and fourth rover to be delivered to Mars. Weighing nearly one metric ton, Curiosity is the largest and most complex rover ever sent to investigate another planet. Safely landing such a large payload required an innovative Entry, Descent, and Landing system, which included the first guided entry at Mars, the largest supersonic parachute ever flown at Mars, and a novel and untested Sky Crane landing system. A complete, end-to-end, six degree-of-freedom, multi-body computer simulation of the Mars Science Laboratory Entry, Descent, and Landing sequence was developed at the NASA Langley Research Center. In-flight data gathered during the successful landing is compared to pre-flight statistical distributions, predicted by the simulation. These comparisons provide insight into both the accuracy of the simulation and the overall performance of the vehicle.

Way, David W.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Preliminary Assessment of the Mars Science Laboratory Entry, Descent, and Landing Simulation

On August 5, 2012, the Mars Science Laboratory rover, Curiosity, successfully landed inside Gale Crater. This landing was only the seventh successful landing and fourth rover to be delivered to Mars. Weighing nearly one metric ton, Curiosity is the largest and most complex rover ever sent to investigate another planet. Safely landing such a large payload required an innovative Entry, Descent, and Landing system, which included the first guided entry at Mars, the largest supersonic parachute ever flown at Mars, and a novel and untested Sky Crane landing system. A complete, end-to-end, six degree-of-freedom, multibody computer simulation of the Mars Science Laboratory Entry, Descent, and Landing sequence was developed at the NASA Langley Research Center. In-flight data gathered during the successful landing is compared to pre-flight statistical distributions, predicted by the simulation. These comparisons provide insight into both the accuracy of the simulation and the overall performance of the vehicle.

Way, David W.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Statistical Error Analysis on White-Light Filter Ratio Experiments to Measure Electron Parameters

The Filter ratio technique to remotely measure electron temperature and speed using four color filters in visible light and a polarization camera was described in detail in four articles by Reginald et al., Solar physics, (2018, 2019a, 2019b, 2020). In these four articles we quantified the systematic error associated with using models of symmetric corona to interpret results from asymmetric corona. We also showed the criteria applied to select the bandwidths of filters, and the pros and cons of replacing the traditional linear polarizer with a polarization camera to measure pB. What started in 1990s as ground experiments conducted during total solar eclipses that lasted for a few minutes lead to a balloon borne experiment lasting eight hours in 2019 and will blossom into a space experiment on the International Space Station in 2023. Due to constraints on the bandwidths of the four filters, a successful mission requires quantification of the statistical error using Monte Carlo simulation to generate two feasibility profiles, which are unique to the design parameters of the coronagraph, to comprehend the feasibility to measure temperature and speed within the desired temporal and spatial resolutions. For the statistical error analysis, we use modeled K and F corona profiles, representative theoretical diffraction, scattering, and vignetting profiles, assumed efficiencies for lenses, mirrors, and polarizers, assumed detector properties on quantum efficiency, full well depth, dark noise, and read noise, and assumed instrument properties on aperture diameter, solid angle, and pixel resolution. We hope future white-light coronagraphs will exhibit capabilities to measure electron density, temperature, and speed.

Nelson Reginald↗

DOE OSTI2026

Parity-odd four-point correlation function from the DESI data release 1 luminous red galaxy sample

The parity-odd four-point function provides a unique probe of fundamental symmetries and potential new physics in the large-scale structure of the Universe. We present measurements of the parity-odd four-point function using the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) DR1 luminous red galaxy (LRG) sample and assess its detection significance. Our analysis considers both auto- and cross-correlations, using two complementary approaches to the covariance: (i) the full analytic covariance matrix applied to the uncompressed data vector, and (ii) a compressed data vector combined with a hybrid covariance matrix constructed from simulations and analytic estimates. When using the full analytic covariance matrix without corrections, we observe apparent auto-correlation signals with significance up to 4⁢𝜎. However, this excess is also consistent with a mismatch between the statistical fluctuations estimated from the simulations and those present in the real data. Our findings therefore suggest that the parity-odd signal in the current DESI DR1 LRG sample is consistent with zero. We note, however, that the low completeness of this sample may have a non-negligible impact on the detection sensitivity. Future data releases with improved completeness will be crucial for further investigation.

Hou, Jiamin [Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität; Unive↗

NASA NTRS1989

Monte Carlo simulation of an expanding gas

By application of simple computer graphics techniques, the statistical performance of two Monte Carlo methods used in the simulation of rarefied gas flows are assessed. Specifically, two direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) methods developed by Bird and Nanbu are considered. The graphics techniques are found to be of great benefit in the reduction and interpretation of the large volume of data generated, thus enabling important conclusions to be drawn about the simulation results. Hence, it is discovered that the method of Nanbu suffers from increased statistical fluctuations, thereby prohibiting its use in the solution of practical problems.

Boyd, Iain D.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Convergence of halo statistics: code comparison between rockstar and compaso using scale-free simulations

ABSTRACT In this study, we perform a halo-finder code comparison between rockstar and compaso. Based on our previous analysis aiming at quantifying resolution of N-body simulations by exploiting large (up to N = 40963) simulations of scale-free cosmologies run using abacus, we focus on convergence of the halo mass function, two-point correlation function, and mean radial pairwise velocities of halo centres selected with the aforementioned two algorithms. We establish convergence, for both rockstar and compaso, of mass functions at the 1 per cent precision level and of the mean pairwise velocities (and also two-point correlation function) at the 2 per cent level. At small scales and masses, we find that rockstar exhibits greater self-similarity. We also highlight the role played by the merger-tree post-processing of compaso haloes on their convergence. Finally, we give resolution limits expressed as a minimum particle number per halo in a form that can be directly extrapolated to Lambda cold dark matter.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2020

Parallel algorithms for hyperdynamics and local hyperdynamics

Hyperdynamics (HD) is a method for accelerating the timescale of standard molecular dynamics (MD). It can be used for simulations of systems with an energy potential landscape that is a collection of basins, separated by barriers, where transitions between basins are infrequent. HD enables the system to escape from a basin more quickly while enabling a statistically accurate renormalization of the simulation time, thus effectively boosting the timescale of the simulation. In [Kim, Perez, Voter, J Chem Phys, 139:144110, 2013)1, a local version of HD was formulated, which exploits the intrinsic locality characteristic typical of most systems to mitigate the poor scaling properties of standard HD as the system size is increased. In this paper, we discuss how both HD and local HD can be formulated to run efficiently in parallel. We have implemented these ideas in the LAMMPS MD code, which means HD can be used with any interatomic potential LAMMPS supports. Together, these parallel methods allow simulations of any size to achieve the time acceleration offered by HD (which can be orders of magnitude), at a cost 3-5x that of standard MD. As examples, we performed two simulations of a million-atom system to model the diffusion and clustering of Pt adatoms on a large patch of Pt(100) surface for 80 and 160 μs.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1994

Statistical Analysis of Interference Between Earth Stations and Earth-Orbiting Satellites

Determination of the potential for radio frequency interference between Earth stations and orbiting spacecraft is often desirable. This information can be used to select frequencies for radio systems to avoid interference or it can be used to determine if coordination between radio systems is necessary. Also, it is useful for planning emission standards and filtering requirements for future telecommunications equipment. A model is developed that will determine the statistics of interference between Earth stations and elliptical orbiting spacecraft. The model uses orbital dynamics, detailed antenna patterns, and spectral characteristics to obtain accurate levels of interference at the victim receiver. The model is programmed into a computer simulation to obtain long term statistics of interference.

satellite communications interference geometry↗

NASA NTRS2012

Detached-Eddy Simulation Based on the V2-F Model

Detached-eddy simulation (DES) based on the v(sup 2)-f Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) model is developed and tested. The v(sup 2)-f model incorporates the anisotropy of near-wall turbulence which is absent in other RANS models commonly used in the DES community. The v(sup 2)-f RANS model is modified in order the proposed v(sup 2)-f-based DES formulation reduces to a transport equation for the subgrid-scale kinetic energy isotropic turbulence. First, three coefficients in the elliptic relaxation equation are modified, which is tested in channel flows with friction Reynolds number up to 2000. Then, the proposed v(sup 2)-f DES model formulation is derived. The constant, C(sub DES), required in the DES formulation was calibrated by simulating both decaying and statistically-steady isotropic turbulence. After C(sub DES) was calibrated, the v(sub 2)-f DES formulation is tested for flow around a circular cylinder at a Reynolds number of 3900, in which case turbulence develops after separation. Simulations indicate that this model represents the turbulent wake nearly as accurately as the dynamic Smagorinsky model. Spalart-Allmaras-based DES is also included in the cylinder flow simulation for comparison.

Jee, Sol Keun↗