SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Statistical accuracy”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 505 records · Page 28

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2024

A Novel Non‐Destructive Rapid Tool for Estimating Amino Acid Composition and Secondary Structures of Proteins in Solution

Abstract Amino‐acid protein composition plays an important role in biology, medicine, and nutrition. Here, a groundbreaking protein analysis technique that quickly estimates amino acid composition and secondary structure across various protein sizes, while maintaining their natural states is introduced and validated. This method combines multivariate statistics and the thermostable Raman interaction profiling (TRIP) technique, eliminating the need for complex preparations. In order to validate the approach, the Raman spectra are constructed of seven proteins of varying sizes by utilizing their amino acid frequencies and the Raman spectra of individual amino acids. These constructed spectra exhibit a close resemblance to the actual measured Raman spectra. Specific vibrational modes tied to free amino and carboxyl termini of the amino acids disappear as signals linked to secondary structures emerged under TRIP conditions. Furthermore, the technique is used inversely to successfully estimate amino acid compositions and secondary structures of unknown proteins across a range of sizes, achieving impressive accuracy ranging between 1.47% and 5.77% of root mean square errors (RMSE). These results extend the uses for TRIP beyond interaction profiling, to probe amino acid composition and structure.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2025

Real-Time event reconstruction for Nuclear Physics Experiments using Artificial Intelligence

Charged track reconstruction is a critical task in nuclear physics experiments, enabling the identification and analysis of particles produced in high-energy collisions. Machine learning (ML) has emerged as a powerful tool for this purpose, addressing the challenges posed by complex detector geometries, high event multiplicities, and noisy data. Traditional methods rely on pattern recognition algorithms like the Kalman filter, but ML techniques, such as neural networks, graph neural networks (GNNs), and recurrent neural networks (RNNs), offer improved accuracy and scalability. By learning from simulated and real detector data, ML models can identify and classify tracks, predict trajectories, and handle ambiguities caused by overlapping or missing hits. Moreover, ML-based approaches can process data in near-real-time, enhancing the efficiency of experiments at large-scale facilities like the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) and Jefferson Lab (JLAB). As detector technologies and computational resources evolve, ML-driven charged track reconstruction continues to push the boundaries of precision and discovery in nuclear physics. In these proceedings, we highlight advancements in charged track identification leveraging Artificial Intelligence within the CLAS12 detector, achieving a notable enhancement in experimental statistics compared to traditional methods. Additionally, we showcase real-time event reconstruction capabilities, including the inference of charged particle properties, such as momentum, direction, and species identification, at speeds matching data acquisition rates. These innovations enable the extraction of physics observables directly from the experiment in real-time.

Gavalian, Gagik (ORCID:0000000267385457)↗

DOE OSTI2022

Prospects and Limitations of Predicting Fuel Ignition Properties from Low-Temperature Speciation Data

Using chemical kinetic modeling and statistical analysis, we investigate the possibility of correlating key chemical “markers”–typically small molecules–formed during very lean (φ ~ 0.001) oxidation experiments with near-stoichiometric (φ ~ 1) fuel ignition properties. One goal of this work is to evaluate the feasibility of designing a fuel-screening platform, based on small laboratory reactors that operate at low temperatures and use minimal fuel volume. Buras et al. [Combust. Flame2020,216, 472–484] have shown that convolutional neural net (CNN) fitting can be used to correlate first-stage ignition delay times (IDTs) with OH/HO2 measurements during very lean oxidation in low-T flow reactors with better than factor-of-2 accuracy. In this work, we test the limits of applying this correlation-based approach to predict the low-temperature heat release (LTHR) and total IDT, including the sensitivity of total IDT to the equivalence ratio, φ. We demonstrate that first-stage IDT can be reliably correlated with very lean oxidation measurements using compressed sensing (CS), which is simpler to implement than CNN fitting. LTHR can also be predicted via CS analysis, although the correlation quality is somewhat lower than for first-stage IDT. In contrast, the accuracy of total IDT prediction at φ = 1 is significantly lower (within a factor of 4 or worse). Furthermore, these results can be rationalized by the fact that the first-stage IDT and LTHR are primarily determined by low-temperature chemistry, whereas total IDT depends on low-, intermediate-, and high-temperature chemistry. Oxidation reactions are most important at low temperatures, and therefore, measurements of universal molecular markers of oxidation do not capture the full chemical complexity required to accurately predict the total IDT even at a single equivalence ratio. As a result, we find that φ-sensitivity of ignition delay cannot be predicted at all using solely correlation with lean low-T chemical speciation measurements.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Short-wavelength-sensitive 2 (Sws2) visual photopigment models combined with atomistic molecular simulations to predict spectral peaks of absorbance

For many species, vision is one of the most important sensory modalities for mediating essential tasks that include navigation, predation and foraging, predator avoidance, and numerous social behaviors. The vertebrate visual process begins when photons of the light interact with rod and cone photoreceptors that are present in the neural retina. Vertebrate visual photopigments are housed within these photoreceptor cells and are sensitive to a wide range of wavelengths that peak within the light spectrum, the latter of which is a function of the type of chromophore used and how it interacts with specific amino acid residues found within the opsin protein sequence. Minor differences in the amino acid sequences of the opsins are known to lead to large differences in the spectral peak of absorbance (i.e. the λ max value). In our prior studies, we developed a new approach that combined homology modeling and molecular dynamics simulations to gather structural information associated with chromophore conformation, then used it to generate statistical models for the accurate prediction of λ max values for photopigments derived from Rh1 and Rh2 amino acid sequences. In the present study, we test our novel approach to predict the λ max of phylogenetically distant Sws2 cone opsins. To build a model that can predict the λ max using our approach presented in our prior studies, we selected a spectrally-diverse set of 11 teleost Sws2 photopigments for which both amino acid sequence information and experimentally measured λ max values are known. The final first-order regression model, consisting of three terms associated with chromophore conformation, was sufficient to predict the λ max of Sws2 photopigments with high accuracy. This study further highlights the breadth of our approach in reliably predicting λ max values of Sws2 cone photopigments, evolutionary-more distant from template bovine RH1, and provided mechanistic insights into the role of known spectral tuning sites.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

X-ray absorption spectroscopy study of Mn reference compounds for Mn speciation in terrestrial surface environments

Abstract X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) offers great potential to identify and quantify Mn species in surface environments by means of linear combination fit (LCF), fingerprint, and shell-fit analyses of bulk Mn XAS spectra. However, these approaches are complicated by the lack of a comprehensive and accessible spectrum library. Additionally, molecular-level information on Mn coordination in some potentially important Mn species occurring in soils and sediments is missing. Therefore, we investigated a suite of 32 natural and synthetic Mn reference compounds, including Mn oxide, oxyhydroxide, carbonate, phosphate, and silicate minerals, as well as organic and adsorbed Mn species, by Mn K-edge X-ray absorption near edge structure (XANES) and extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) spectroscopy. The ability of XAS to infer the average oxidation state (AOS) of Mn was assessed by comparing XANES-derived AOS with the AOS obtained from redox titrations. All reference compounds were studied for their local (<5 Å) Mn coordination environment using EXAFS shell-fit analysis. Statistical analyses were employed to clarify how well and to what extent individual Mn species (groups) can be distinguished by XAS based on spectral uniqueness. Our results show that LCF analysis of normalized XANES spectra can reliably quantify the Mn AOS within ~0.1 v.u. in the range +2 to +4. These spectra are diagnostic for most Mn species investigated, but unsuitable to identify and quantify members of the manganate and Mn(III)-oxyhydroxide groups. First-derivative XANES fingerprinting allows the unique identification of pyrolusite, ramsdellite, and potentially lithiophorite within the manganate group. However, XANES spectra of individual Mn compounds can vary significantly depending on chemical composition and/or crystallinity, which limits the accuracy of XANES-based speciation analyses. In contrast, EXAFS spectra provide a much better discriminatory power to identify and quantify Mn species. Principal component and cluster analyses of k2-weighted EXAFS spectra of Mn reference compounds implied that EXAFS LCF analysis of environmental samples can identify and quantify at least the following primary Mn species groups: (1) Phyllo- and tectomanganates with large tunnel sizes (2 × 2 and larger; hollandite sensu stricto, romanèchite, todorokite); (2) tectomanganates with small tunnel sizes (2 × 2 and smaller; cryptomelane, pyrolusite, ramsdellite); (3) Mn(III)-dominated species (nesosilicates, oxyhydroxides, organic compounds, spinels); (4) Mn(II) species (carbonate, phosphate, and phyllosilicate minerals, adsorbed and organic species); and (5) manganosite. All Mn compounds, except for members of the manganate group (excluding pyrolusite) and adsorbed Mn(II) species, exhibit unique EXAFS spectra that would allow their identification and quantification in mixtures. Therefore, our results highlight the potential of Mn K-edge EXAFS spectroscopy to assess bulk Mn speciation in soils and sediments. A complete XAS-based speciation analysis of bulk Mn in environmental samples should preferably include the determination of Mn valences following the “Combo” method of Manceau et al. (2012), EXAFS LCF analyses based on principal component and target transformation results, as well as EXAFS shell-fit analyses for the validation of LCF results. For this purpose, all 32 XAS reference spectra are provided in the Online Materials1 for further use by the scientific community.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

DOE OSTI2020

VADER: A Tool for Criticality Safety Validation

The purpose of criticality safety is to prevent any inadvertent criticality from occurring during the handling or storage of fissile material. Calculations are frequently used to demonstrate that a sufficient subcritical margin exists. Validation is a key aspect of the evaluation process, establishing the suitability, accuracy, and associated uncertainty of the computational method and data to be used for the intended application. The validation process is performed by comparing the results of critical experiments with the calculated results from models of the experiments using the computational method to be validated. Laboratory critical experiments are controlled systems that achieve a k eff of approximately 1 in order to investigate the parameters at which such a critical condition is achieved. The validation parameters that are traditionally applied to safety analysis calculations are the bias and the bias uncertainty . The bias is the deviation of the average k eff of the validation suite from unity. The bias uncertainty accounts for the statistical uncertainty in the bias based on the standard deviation, sample size, and distribution of k eff values of the validation suite. The values of bias and bias uncertainty ensure that the systems predicted to be subcritical by the computational method will indeed be subcritical. The bias and bias uncertainty are often combined to determine an upper subcritical limit (USL) or computational margin that can then be applied to safety analysis calculations. Many methods have been developed by different organizations to calculate the bias and bias uncertainty for various types of criticality analyses. Each of these methods typically requires that the validity of various underpinning statistical assumptions be confirmed to demonstrate that the method is appropriate for the analysis of a given validation suite. An example of the validation decision making flow is shown in Fig.1. As shown in Fig. 1, the analyst performing the validation fits a trend line to the data and performs a test to determine if the trend was a statistically better representation of the data than if it were treated as an uncorrelated sample. If the trend line is a better representation of the data, then the analyst uses any one of a number of trending techniques to determine the bias and bias uncertainty. If a trend is not an appropriate representation of the data, then the analyst proceeds to perform a normality assessment for the data. If the normal assumption can be shown to be acceptable, then the analyst calculates the bias and bias uncertainty with the parametric technique. If the assumption of normality cannot be justified, then the nonparametric technique is used. Once the decision flow has been followed and the appropriate technique has been selected, the bias and bias uncertainty is typically combined with an administrative margin to determine a USL below which calculated values of k eff for safety analysis models can be considered subcritical. The calculations used in each decision are often performed with spreadsheets or with small programs available at various sites performing criticality analyses. Expertise in understanding and interpreting the results must be maintained to perform these calculations. This can often be an error-prone process. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is currently developing the Validation and Data Evaluation Resource (VADER) to simplify and automate the criticality safety validation process and to provide a software quality assurance pedigree to the calculational methods used. This paper discusses the use of the Fulcrum user interface with VADER, the anticipated initial capabilities of VADER to perform validation analyses, and the output from the code.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Climatology of the Vertical Profiles of Polarimetric Radar Variables and Retrieved Microphysical Parameters in Continental/Tropical MCSs and Landfalling Hurricanes

Most existing cloud models tend to overestimate the size of cloud ice particles and underestimate their concentration. This emphasizes the need to provide a reliable observational reference to optimize cloud model performance, particularly in areas of high concentration of ice at high altitudes. The dual-polarization radars give the community a unique opportunity to quantify cloud ice with a good accuracy using polarimetric radar retrievals. Here, in this study, we utilize the network of operational WSR-88D radars to build a climatology of the vertical profiles of radar variables, such as radar reflectivity Z, differential reflectivity Z DR , and specific differential phase K DP as well as the radar-retrieved vertical profiles of ice water content (IWC) above the melting layer and liquid water content below it, mean volume diameter D m , and total number concentration N t of ice and liquid particles. Such climatology was created for continental/marine mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and tropical cyclones including hurricanes. The dataset includes 13 continental MCSs, 10 marine MCSs, and 11 tropical cyclones. Separate statistics of the “background” vertical profiles and the ones associated with high IWC aloft have been obtained in the course of this study. It is shown that continental MCSs exhibit larger size of ice in lower concentration aloft compared to the marine MCSs and especially tropical cyclones/hurricanes. A combination of high KDP and low Z aloft signifies lower D m , higher N t , and often substantial IWC.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Classification of Intensity Distributions of Transmission Eigenchannels of Disordered Nanophotonic Structures Using Machine Learning

Light-matter interaction optimization in complex nanophotonic structures is a critical step towards the tailored performance of photonic devices. The increasing complexity of such systems requires new optimization strategies beyond intuitive methods. For example, in disordered photonic structures, the spatial distribution of energy densities has large random fluctuations due to the interference of multiply scattered electromagnetic waves, even though the statistically averaged spatial profiles of the transmission eigenchannels are universal. Classification of these eigenchannels for a single configuration based on visualization of intensity distributions is difficult. However, successful classification could provide vital information about disordered nanophotonic structures. Emerging methods in machine learning have enabled new investigations into optimized photonic structures. In this work, we combine intensity distributions of the transmission eigenchannels and the transmitted speckle-like intensity patterns to classify the eigenchannels of a single configuration of disordered photonic structures using machine learning techniques. Specifically, we leverage supervised learning methods, such as decision trees and fully connected neural networks, to achieve classification of these transmission eigenchannels based on their intensity distributions with an accuracy greater than 99%, even with a dataset including photonic devices of various disorder strengths. Simultaneous classification of the transmission eigenchannels and the relative disorder strength of the nanophotonic structure is also possible. Our results open new directions for machine learning assisted speckle-based metrology and demonstrate a novel approach to classifying nanophotonic structures based on their electromagnetic field distributions. These insights can be of paramount importance for optimizing light-matter interactions at the nanoscale.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modeling protein structures from predicted contacts with modern molecular dynamics potentials: accuracy, sensitivity, and refinement

Protein structure prediction has become increasingly popular and successful in recent years. An essential step for fragment-free, template-free methods is the generation of a final three-dimensional protein model from a set of predicted amino acid contacts that are often described by interresidue pairwise atomic distances. Here we explore the use of modern, open-source molecular dynamics (MD) engines, which have been continually developed over the last three decades with all-atom Hamiltonians to model biomolecular structure and dynamics, to generate accurate protein structures starting from a set of inferred pairwise distances. Additionally, the ability of MD empirical physical potentials to correct inaccuracies in the predicted geometries is tested. We rigorously characterize the effect of modeling parameters on results, the effect of different amounts of error in the predicted distances on the final structures, and test the ability of post-processing analysis to sort the best models out of a set of statistical replicas. We find that with exact distances and with noisy distances, the method can produce excellent structural models, and that the molecular dynamics force field seems to help correct errors in distance predictions, resisting the effects of applied noise.

Davidson, Russ↗

DOE OSTI2020

Efficient neutrino oscillation parameter inference using Gaussian processes

The unified approach of Feldman and Cousins allows for exact statistical inference of small signals that commonly arise in high energy physics. It has gained widespread use, for instance, in measurements of neutrino oscillation parameters in long-baseline experiments. However, the approach relies on the Neyman construction of the classical confidence interval and is computationally intensive as it is typically done in a grid-based fashion over the entire parameter space. In this article, we propose an efficient algorithm for the Feldman-Cousins approach using Gaussian processes to construct confidence intervals iteratively. Further, we show that in the neutrino oscillation context, one can obtain confidence intervals fives times faster in one dimension and ten times faster in two dimensions, while maintaining an accuracy above 99.5%.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Survival analysis of localized prostate cancer with deep learning

In recent years, data-driven, deep-learning-based models have shown great promise in medical risk prediction. By utilizing the large-scale Electronic Health Record data found in the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs, the largest integrated healthcare system in the United States, we have developed an automated, personalized risk prediction model to support the clinical decision-making process for localized prostate cancer patients. This method combines the representative power of deep learning and the analytical interpretability of parametric regression models and can implement both time-dependent and static input data. To collect a comprehensive evaluation of model performances, we calculate time-dependent C-statistics C td over 2-, 5-, and 10-year time horizons using either a composite outcome or prostate cancer mortality as the target event. The composite outcome combines the Prostate-Specific Antigen (PSA) test, metastasis, and prostate cancer mortality. Our longitudinal model Recurrent Deep Survival Machine (RDSM) achieved C td 0.85 (0.83), 0.80 (0.83), and 0.76 (0.81), while the cross-sectional model Deep Survival Machine (DSM) attained C td 0.85 (0.82), 0.80 (0.82), and 0.76 (0.79) for the 2-, 5-, and 10-year composite (mortality) outcomes, respectively. In addition to estimating the survival probability, our method can quantify the uncertainty associated with the prediction. The uncertainty scores show a consistent correlation with the prediction accuracy. We find PSA and prostate cancer stage information are the most important indicators in risk prediction. Our work demonstrates the utility of the data-driven machine learning model in prostate cancer risk prediction, which can play a critical role in the clinical decision system.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Direct Numerical Simulation of the Flow through a Randomly Packed Pebble Bed

The proposition for molten salt and high-temperature gas-cooled reactors has increased the focus on the dynamics and physics in randomly packed pebble beds. Research is being conducted on the validity of these designs as a possible contestant for the fourth-generation nuclear power systems. A detailed understanding of the coolant flow behavior is required in order to ensure proper cooling of the reactor core during normal and accident conditions. In order to increase the understanding of the flow through these complex geometries and enhance the accuracy of lower-fidelity modeling, high-fidelity approaches such as direct numerical simulation (DNS) can be utilized. Nek5000, a spectral-element computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code, was used to develop DNS fluid flow data. The flow domain consisted of 147 pebbles enclosed by a bounding wall. In the work presented, the Reynolds numbers ranged from 430 to 1050 based on the pebble diameter and inlet velocity. Characteristics of the flow domain such as volume averaged porosity, axial porosity, and radial porosity were studied and compared with correlations available in the literature. Friction factors from the DNS results for all Reynolds numbers were compared with correlations in the literature. The first- and second-order statistics show good agreement with the available experimental data. Turbulence length scales were analyzed in the flow. Reynolds stress anisotropy was characterized by utilizing invariant analysis. Overall, the results of the analysis in this study provide deeper understanding of the flow behavior and the effect of the wall in packed beds.

Yildiz, Mustafa Alper↗

DOE OSTI2022

Robust Carbon Dioxide Plume Imaging Using Joint Tomographic Inversion of Seismic Onset Time and Distributed Pressure and Temperature Measurements (Final Report)

We develop and demonstrate rapid and cost-effective methodologies for spatiotemporal tracking of CO2 plumes during geologic sequestration using joint inversion of seismic data and distributed pressure and temperature measurements. Key elements of our methodology are: (a) a computationally efficient approach to pressure and temperature propagation, (b) analysis of time lapse seismic data using a novel ‘seismic onset time’ approach to detect fluid front propagation, and (c) data assimilation and uncertainty assessment via joint inversion of pressure, temperature and time lapse seismic data, and (d) validating the numerical tomographic inversion using a CO2 injection demonstration projects, specifically data collected from the from the Petra Nova Parish Holdings CCUS project in the West Ranch Field, Texas and the Chester-16 reef CO2 injection site in Northern Michigan which is part of the DOE Midwestern Carbon Sequestration Project. The research team is led by Texas A&M University and includes Battelle as a subcontractor with support from Shell, Anadarko, Chevron and JX Nippon. A carbon dioxide (CO2) water-alternating-gas (WAG) pilot was conducted to gain insights into tertiary oil recovery potential via CO2 flood in the West Ranch Field as part of the Petra Nova project, the world’s largest post-combustion CO2 capture and utilization initiative. With a fluvial formation geology and large contrasts in permeability, this is a challenging and novel application of CO2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR). We build a predictive dynamic model of the subsurface that incorporates the multiphase and compositional data acquired during the pilot operation. The calibrated model is used for the carbon dioxide plume imaging. The study began with an initialization of the pilot sector model extracted from a calibrated full-field model. The pilot model calibration follows a two-step hierarchical workflow. First, we performed a large-scale update of the permeability distribution by integrating available bottomhole pressure and multiphase production data. In the second step, local permeability field is fine-tuned using a streamline-based method to match CO2 breakthrough times at the producers. The predictive capability of the calibrated model was verified through two blind validation tests: (1) the model showed good agreement with saturation logs acquired at two observation wells; and (2) the model reproduced the CO2 recovery as a fraction of the injected CO2. The use of seismic onset times has shown great promise for integrating near-continuous seismic surveys for updating geologic models. In this study, we analyze the impact of seismic survey frequency on the onset time approach aiming to extend the application of onset time to infrequent seismic surveys. In addition, we quantitatively examine the nonlinearity of the onset time method and compare it to the commonly used amplitude inversion method. We carry out a sensitivity analysis of seismic survey frequency based on the complete seismic survey data (over 175 surveys) of steam injection in a heavy oil reservoir (Peace River Unit) in Canada. Our results show that an adequate onset time map can be obtained from the infrequent seismic surveys by interpolation between seismic surveys as long as there is no change in the dominant underlying physics between the successive surveys. The study also shows that nonlinearity of the onset time method can be -smaller than that of the amplitude inversion method by several orders of magnitude. Application to the Brugge benchmark case shows that the onset time method obtains comparable permeability update as the traditional seismic amplitude inversion method with faster computation and improved convergence characteristics. We extend the streamline-based data integration approach to incorporate distributed temperature sensor (DTS) data using the concept of thermal tracer travel time. Then, a hierarchical workflow composed of evolutionary and streamline methods is employed to jointly history match the DTS and pressure data. Finally, CO2 saturation and streamline maps are used to visualize the CO2 plume movement during the sequestration process. The hierarchical workflow is applied to a carbon sequestration project in a carbonate reef reservoir within the Northern Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Trend in Michigan, USA. The monitoring data set consists of distributed temperature sensing (DTS) data acquired at the injection well and a monitoring well, flowing bottom-hole pressure data at the injection well, and time-lapse pressure measurements at several locations along the monitoring well. The history matching results indicate that the CO2 movement is mostly restricted to the intended zones of injection which is consistent with an independent warm-back analysis of the temperature data. In addition to employing simulation models and inverse methods for CO2 plume imaging, we also initialized a data-driven technology for detecting inter-well connectivity based on production and pressure data. Our machine-learning framework is built on the statistical recurrent unit (SRU) model and interprets well-based injection/production data into inter-well connectivity without relying on a geologic model. We test it on synthetic and field-scale CO2 EOR projects utilizing the water-alternating-gas (WAG) process. The validation of the proposed data-driven inter-well connectivity assessment is performed using synthetic data from simulation models where inter-well connectivity can be easily measured using the streamline-based flux allocation. The SRU model is shown to offer excellent prediction performance on the synthetic case. Despite significant measurement noise and frequent well shut-ins imposed in the field-scale case, the SRU model offers good prediction accuracy, the overall relative error of the phase production rates at most producers ranges from 10% to 30%. It is shown that the dominant connections identified by the data-driven method and streamline method are in close agreement. Texas A&M University, the lead organization in the project, was primarily responsible for the development of tomographic approaches for CO2 plume mapping in conjunction with distributed pressure, temperature and seismic onset time data. Battelle, as a subcontractor, was primarily responsible for the development of analytical and empirical methods for analyzing transient injection rate and pressure data from point/line sources such as injection and monitoring wells. An additional area of emphasis for Battelle was the use of machine learning for such tasks as inferring reservoir connectivity information from injection-production data, and identifying variable importance for machine learning-based proxy models developed from full-physics simulations. The two organizations also collaborated on the application of the tomographic inversion methodology for a field data set.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Framework for Parametric and Predictive Uncertainty Quantification in the E3SM Land Model: Assessing Site and Observable Generalizability

Quantifying parametric uncertainty using observations from individual sites provides a critical foundation for Earth system modeling, serving as a necessary first step before scaling up to regional or global applications. This study introduces a novel computational framework designed to enhance model predictability by reducing parametric uncertainty and assessing site and observable generalizability using various observational constraints. The framework integrates five components: Model Simulation, Statistical Emulation, Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA), Model Calibration, and Model Prediction. Using the E3SM land model, we simulated site-level land-atmosphere carbon and energy fluxes from 2003 to 2007 across five evergreen needleleaf FLUXNET sites, perturbing 26 vegetation-related model parameters. Gaussian process emulators were employed to expedite GSA and model calibration. Four critical parameters that strongly influence selected land-atmosphere fluxes were identified by GSA. Bayesian approaches were used to infer parameter probability distributions leveraging synthetic data and FLUXNET observations. The results reveal that posterior parameter distributions vary significantly across different sites and observables within the same plant functional type. Probabilistic predictions indicate that parameters calibrated at one site can enhance predictive accuracy at other sites, although site heterogeneity may sometimes outweigh parametric uncertainty. Additionally, the probabilistic predictions demonstrate that calibration for one variable can also improve predictability for other variables, thereby maximizing predictive capabilities with limited observations. This framework provides a powerful approach for reducing parametric uncertainty in Earth system models and deepening our understanding of carbon dynamics and energy cycles. Its adaptability makes it a valuable tool for broader applications in Earth system modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 Results: clustering redshifts – calibration of the weak lensing source redshift distributions with redMaGiC and BOSS/eBOSS

ABSTRACT We present the calibration of the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3) weak lensing (WL) source galaxy redshift distributions n(z) from clustering measurements. In particular, we cross-correlate the WL source galaxies sample with redMaGiC galaxies (luminous red galaxies with secure photometric redshifts) and a spectroscopic sample from BOSS/eBOSS to estimate the redshift distribution of the DES sources sample. Two distinct methods for using the clustering statistics are described. The first uses the clustering information independently to estimate the mean redshift of the source galaxies within a redshift window, as done in the DES Y1 analysis. The second method establishes a likelihood of the clustering data as a function of n(z), which can be incorporated into schemes for generating samples of n(z) subject to combined clustering and photometric constraints. Both methods incorporate marginalization over various astrophysical systematics, including magnification and redshift-dependent galaxy-matter bias. We characterize the uncertainties of the methods in simulations; the first method recovers the mean z of tomographic bins to RMS (precision) of ∼0.014. Use of the second method is shown to vastly improve the accuracy of the shape of n(z) derived from photometric data. The two methods are then applied to the DES Y3 data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Orbit-averaging and deposition accuracy for runaway electron beams in hybrid kinetic-MHD simulations of the runaway plateau

We develop a new procedure that combines the kinetic orbit runaway electron code (KORC) and the NIMROD extended-magnetohydrodynamic code to simulate runaway electrons (REs) in the post-disruption plateau. KORC integrates guiding-center orbits, with a barycentric-based binary search strategy providing initial guesses for the Newton–Raphson logical-to-physical coordinate inversion, ensuring reliable particle-to-mesh mapping in NIMROD, whose fields remain static for the present study. Samples are drawn in accord with experimental parallel current profiles of RE beams during the plateau phase. Deposition in NIMROD is verified through comparison with a Python-based finite-element code that ensures periodicity in the poloidal direction and continuity at the magnetic axis. Accurate representation of near-axis fields requires finer mesh resolution to prevent under- and overshoots in current density from orbit inaccuracies. Yet, at a fixed particle count, increasing mesh resolution amplifies statistical noise in the deposited fields. An orbit-averaging method accumulates partial current deposits over multiple kinetic steps and reduces the statistical noise with little added computational cost. By coupling kinetic routines from KORC directly into the NIMROD codebase, these developments lay essential groundwork for future self-consistent KORC–NIMROD coupling.

Algorithms and data structure↗

DOE OSTI2021

Model validation for inferred hot-spot conditions in National Ignition Facility experiments

Progress toward ignition requires accurately diagnosing current conditions and assessing proximity metrics for implosion experiments on the National Ignition Facility. Hot-spot conditions are not directly measured, but rather inferred, often using simple 0- and 1D models [P. Patel et al., Phys. Plasmas 27, 050901 (2020)]. In this work, we present a detailed accuracy validation exercise using a set of ~20,000 2D simulations encompassing a variety of performance and degradation levels. We find good agreement between the model-inferred pressure and the simulated burn-weighted pressure at peak neutron production and also present results on the precision of inferred quantities using a Markov-Chain Monte Carlo algorithm.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Quantum-classical hybrid algorithm for the simulation of all-electron correlation

While chemical systems containing hundreds to thousands of electrons remain beyond the reach of quantum devices, hybrid quantum-classical algorithms present a promising pathway toward a quantum advantage. Hybrid algorithms treat the exponentially scaling part of the calculation-the static correlation-on the quantum computer and the non-exponentially scaling part-the dynamic correlation-on the classical computer. While a variety of algorithms have been proposed, the dependence of many methods on the total wave function limits the development of easy-to-use classical post-processing implementations. Here, we present a novel combination of quantum and classical algorithms, which computes the all-electron energy of a strongly correlated molecular system on the classical computer from the 2-electron reduced density matrix (2-RDM) evaluated on the quantum device. Significantly, we circumvent the wave function in the all-electron calculations by using density matrix methods that only require input of the statically correlated 2-RDM. Although the algorithm is completely general, we test it with two classical density matrix methods, the anti-Hermitian contracted Schrödinger equation (ACSE) and multiconfiguration pair-density functional theories, using the recently developed quantum ACSE method for simulating the statically correlated 2-RDM. Furthermore, we obtain experimental accuracy for the relative energies of all three benzyne isomers and thereby demonstrate the ability of the developed algorithm to achieve chemically relevant and accurate results on noisy intermediate-scale quantum devices.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗