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Results for “Source and propagation modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1977

Monte Carlo analysis of uncertainty propagation in a stratospheric model. 1: Development of a concise stratospheric model

A concise model has been developed to analyze uncertainties in stratospheric perturbations, yet uses a minimum of computer time and is complete enough to represent the results of more complex models. The steady state model applies iteration to achieve coupling between interacting species. The species are determined from diffusion equations with appropriate sources and sinks. Diurnal effects due to chlorine nitrate formation are accounted for by analytic approximation. The model has been used to evaluate steady state perturbations due to injections of chlorine and NO(X).

Rundel, R. D.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Creep anisotropy modeling and uncertainty quantification of an additively manufactured Ni-based superalloy

The advantages offered by additive manufacturing over traditional processes has driven a great deal of industrial and academic interest in recent years. However, the process is relatively new and requires additional investigation to become sufficiently mature for wide scale industrial adoption. Electron beam melting powder bed fusion is one technology that has shown promise for fabricating high temperature resistant materials such as nickel based superalloys. The resulting microstructures typically exhibit a strong fiber texture in the build direction giving rise to anisotropic time-dependent deformation behavior. In order to accelerate the qualification of these materials for industrial adoption accurate numerical models are needed for simulating their behavior. In this work a crystal plasticity model including non-Schmid effects is presented for capturing creep anisotropy observed in additively manufactured IN738LC. The model is calibrated via a probabilistic framework where model parameters are treated as random variables. An iterative sequential design strategy is utilized to efficiently identify the probability density of the unknown model parameters. As a case study the model is utilized to investigate the behavior of randomly oriented equiaxed grain clusters sometimes observed embedded in the additively manufactured columnar structure. A synthetic realization is simulated and uncertainty is propagated through to the full-field response. Results indicate that these features are the source of significant creep relaxation and strain accumulation which partially explains observed grain boundary decohesion at these locations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

High-energy neutrino emission from magnetized jets of rapidly rotating protomagnetars

ABSTRACT Relativistic jets originating from protomagnetar central engines can lead to long duration gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) and are considered potential sources of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays and secondary neutrinos. We explore the propagation of such jets through a broad range of progenitors, from stars which have shed their envelopes to supergiants which have not. We use a semi-analytical spin-down model for the strongly magnetized and rapidly rotating protoneutron star (PNS) to investigate the role of central engine properties such as the surface dipole field strength, initial rotation period, and jet opening angle on the interactions and dynamical evolution of the jet-cocoon system. With this model, we determine the properties of the relativistic jet, the mildly relativistic cocoon, and the collimation shock in terms of system parameters such as the time-dependent jet luminosity, injection angle, and density profile of the stellar medium. We also analyse the criteria for a successful jet breakout, the maximum energy that can be deposited into the cocoon by the relativistic jet, and structural stability of the magnetized outflow relative to local instabilities. Lastly, we compute the high-energy neutrino emission as these magnetized outflows burrow through their progenitors. Precursor neutrinos from successful GRB jets are unlikely to be detected by IceCube, which is consistent with the results of previous works. On the other hand, we find that high-energy neutrinos may be produced for extended progenitors like blue and red supergiants, and we estimate the detectability of neutrinos with next generation detectors such as IceCube-Gen2.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

NASA NTRS1989

High-energy gamma-ray absorption in relativistic magnetospheres

Calculations are made of the propagation of gamma-rays around neutron stars with a dipole magnetic field, including the effects of general relativity and the absorption by the one-photon magnetic pair production process, as a model for the high-energy transport in gamma-ray burst sources and pulsars. The paper discusses the escaping photon beam characteristics as seen by distant observers at different angles with respect to the magnetic axis, for radiation arising from the polar caps of neutron stars of varying degrees of compactness and surface field strengths. The observed beaming depends strongly on the surface field only up to B of about 0.05 times the critical field value, being essentially constant above the value 0.1. The gravitational light bending contributes significantly to broaden the beam profiles especially at low energies above threshold, being sensitive to the stellar radius to mass ratio.

Riffert, H.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Orbit Determination Toolbox

The Orbit Determination Toolbox is an orbit determination (OD) analysis tool based on MATLAB and Java that provides a flexible way to do early mission analysis. The toolbox is primarily intended for advanced mission analysis such as might be performed in concept exploration, proposal, early design phase, or rapid design center environments. The emphasis is on flexibility, but it has enough fidelity to produce credible results. Insight into all flight dynamics source code is provided. MATLAB is the primary user interface and is used for piecing together measurement and dynamic models. The Java Astrodynamics Toolbox is used as an engine for things that might be slow or inefficient in MATLAB, such as high-fidelity trajectory propagation, lunar and planetary ephemeris look-ups, precession, nutation, polar motion calculations, ephemeris file parsing, and the like. The primary analysis functions are sequential filter/smoother and batch least-squares commands that incorporate Monte-Carlo data simulation, linear covariance analysis, measurement processing, and plotting capabilities at the generic level. These functions have a user interface that is based on that of the MATLAB ODE suite. To perform a specific analysis, users write MATLAB functions that implement truth and design system models. The user provides his or her models as inputs to the filter commands. The software provides a capability to publish and subscribe to a software bus that is compliant with the NASA Goddard Mission Services Evolution Center (GMSEC) standards, to exchange data with other flight dynamics tools to simplify the flight dynamics design cycle. Using the publish and subscribe approach allows for analysts in a rapid design center environment to seamlessly incorporate changes in spacecraft and mission design into navigation analysis and vice versa.

Carpenter, James R.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Investigating the Role of Accident Tolerant Cladding on Source Term Reduction for High-Burnup PWRs Using MELCOR

The use of accident tolerant fuel (ATF) cladding can increase coping times during and beyond design basis accidents. While such gains may be incremental, they provide a margin that can potentially be recovered to enable high-burnup (HBU) operation. Realizing such a margin requires demonstrating that the combination of HBU and ATF has not led to an overall increase in source term. This study investigates the influence of cladding technology (Zr-based, Cr-coated Zr, and FeCrAl) and fuel cycle length (18 and 24 months) on radiological dose at the boundary of the exclusion zone for a four-loop pressurized water reactor to investigate whether ATF claddings can provide such benefits. We analyze a recovered large break loss-of-coolant accident scenario to investigate the impact of transient timescale on the benefits of such coping time increases. The simulations have been performed using the MELCOR and MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System codes. For the cases analyzed, increased fuel cycle length did not necessarily increase radionuclide release and hydrogen generation, as these were found to be sensitive to the core power distribution. Similarly, off-site dose consequence is dominated by short-lived radionuclides that tend to saturate earlier in the burnup, so higher burnup operation did not necessarily increase the source term for the phenomena and transients analyzed here. Delays in recovery of the lowpressure safety injection system increase hydrogen production and radionuclide release, especially between 780 s and 1620 s, due to the nonlinear oxidation and core degradation behavior. Results show that Cr-coated Zr enhances safety by delaying heatup and gap release. Here, when uncertainty propagation on oxidation properties is considered, FeCrAl exhibits the lowest overall radionuclide release and off-site dose throughout the spectrum. However, while the considered “base model” performance is superior under delayed injection scenarios, upper-bound cases display hydrogen generation risk comparable to the Zr-based cladding.

Accident Tolerant Fuel↗

NASA NTRS1988

Theoretical study of turbulent channel flow: Bulk properties, pressure fluctuations, and propagation of electromagnetic waves

In this paper, we apply two theoretical turbulence models, DIA and the recent GISS model, to study properties of a turbulent channel flow. Both models provide a turbulent kinetic energy spectral function E(k) as the solution of a non-linear equation; the two models employ the same source function but different closures. The source function is characterized by a rate n sub s (k) which is derived from the complex eigenvalues of the Orr--Sommerfeld (OS) equation in which the basic flow is taken to be of a Poiseuille type. The O--S equation is solved for a variety of Reynolds numbers corresponding to available experimental data. A physical argument is presented whereby the central line velocity characterizing the basic flow, U0 sup L, is not to be identified with the U0 appearing in the experimental Reynolds number. The theoretical results are compared with two types of experimental data: (1) turbulence bulk properties, and (2) properties that depend stongly on the structure of the turbulence spectrun at low wave numbers. The only existing analytical expression for Pi (k) cannot be used in the present case because it applies to the case of a flat plate, not a finite channel.

Canuto, V. M.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Theoretical study of turbulent channel flow - Bulk properties, pressure fluctuations, and propagation of electromagnetic waves

In this paper, we apply two theoretical turbulence models, DIA and the recent GISS model, to study properties of a turbulent channel flow. Both models provide a turbulent kinetic energy spectral function E(k) as the solution of a non-linear equation; the two models employ the same source function but different closures. The source function is characterized by a rate n sub s (k) which is derived from the complex eigenvalues of the Orr-Sommerfeld (OS) equation in which the basic flow is taken to be of a Poiseuille type. The O-S equation is solved for a variety of Reynolds numbers corresponding to available experimental data. A physical argument is presented whereby the central line velocity characterizing the basic flow, U0 sup L, is not to be identified with the U0 appearing in the experimental Reynolds number. The theoretical results are compared with two types of experimental data: (1) turbulence bulk properties, and (2) properties that depend strongly on the structure of the turbulence spectrum at low wave numbers. The only existing analytical expression for Pi (k) cannot be used in the present case because it applies to the case of a flat plate, not a finite channel.

Canuto, V. M.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Jupiter's magnetosphere as a 'point source' for electrons propagating from 1 to 12 AU

A profile of electron intensities in the interplanetary medium from 1 to 12 AU obtained from Pioneer 10 measurements of the 3-6 MeV Jovian electron flux shows recurring intensity peaks, the amplitude of which decreases with increasing distance from Jupiter both in the direction of the sun and away from it. Concurrent IMP-8 measurements of the 2-12 MeV electron flux revealed a series of 27-day recurrent intensity increases modulated with a period of about 13 months, beginning about four months before the probable magnetic field connection between earth and Jupiter. Amplitudes of the intensity increases reached a maximum near the time of best connection. These results are consistent with a three-dimensional interplanetary diffusion model with Jupiter as a continuously emitting point source.

Chenette, D. L.↗

DOE OSTI2023

BEYONDPLANCK X. Planck Low Frequency Instrument frequency maps with sample-based error propagation

We present Planck Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) frequency sky maps derived within the BEYONDPLANCK framework. This framework draws samples from a global posterior distribution that includes instrumental, astrophysical, and cosmological parameters, and the main product is an entire ensemble of frequency sky map samples, each of which corresponds to one possible realization of the various modeled instrumental systematic corrections, including correlated noise, time-variable gain, as well as far sidelobe and bandpass corrections. This ensemble allows for computationally convenient end-to-end propagation of low-level instrumental uncertainties into higher-level science products, including astrophysical component maps, angular power spectra, and cosmological parameters. We show that the two dominant sources of LFI instrumental systematic uncertainties are correlated noise and gain fluctuations, and the products presented here support – for the first time – full Bayesian error propagation for these effects at full angular resolution. We compared our posterior mean maps with traditional frequency maps delivered by the Planck Collaboration, and find generally good agreement. The most important quality improvement is due to significantly lower calibration uncertainties in the new processing, as we find a fractional absolute calibration uncertainty at 70 GHz of Δg 0 /g 0 = 5 x 10 -5 , which is nominally 40 times smaller than that reported by Planck 2018. However, we also note that the original Planck 2018 estimate has a nontrivial statistical interpretation, and this further illustrates the advantage of the new framework in terms of producing self-consistent and well-defined error estimates of all involved quantities without the need of ad hoc uncertainty contributions. We describe how low-resolution data products, including dense pixel-pixel covariance matrices, may be produced from the posterior samples directly, without the need for computationally expensive analytic calculations or simulations. We conclude that posterior-based frequency map sampling provides unique capabilities in terms of low-level systematics modeling and error propagation, and may play an important role for future Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) B-mode experiments aiming at nanokelvin precision.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

The Role of Normal Stress and Shear Stress Heterogeneity in the Inferred Depth‐Independence of Stress Drop

Earthquake stress drops are inferred to be independent of source depth, contradicting linear scaling predictions for earthquakes as frictional stick‐slip instabilities that assume increasing fault normal stress due to overburden. Here, we examine the scaling between averaged stress drops and increasing normal stress for simulated earthquake sequences in continuum rate‐and‐state fault models. The models produce a weaker dependence of stress drop on normal stress than the linearity of simple friction, which can be well‐fit by a sublinear power‐law. This result is more prominent when the fault dimension is much larger than nucleation scales. In such cases, the averaged behavior of ruptures is dominated by rupture propagation conditions, reflecting more heterogeneous shear stress conditions. As natural faults can be considerably larger than the smallest earthquakes they host, such a weaker scaling between averaged rupture conditions and normal stress may partially explain the lack of an inferred depth‐dependence of earthquake stress drops.

earthquake source↗

DOE OSTI2023

A publicly available PyTorch-$\mathrm{ABAQUS}$ $\mathrm{UMAT}$ deep-learning framework for level-set plasticity

Here this paper introduces a publicly available PyTorch-ABAQUS deep-learning framework of a family of plasticity models where the yield surface is implicitly represented by a scalar-valued function. In particular, our focus is to introduce a practical framework that can be deployed for engineering analysis that employs a user-defined material subroutine (UMAT/VUMAT) for ABAQUS, which is written in FORTRAN. To accomplish this task while leveraging the back-propagation learning algorithm to speed up the neural-network training, we introduce an interface code where the weights and biases of the trained neural networks obtained via the PyTorch library can be automatically converted into a generic FORTRAN code that can be a part of the UMAT/VUMAT algorithm. To enable third-party validation, we purposely make all the data sets, source code used to train the neural-network-based constitutive models, and the trained models available in a public repository. Furthermore, the practicality of the workflow is then further tested on a dataset for anisotropic yield function to showcase the extensibility of the proposed framework. A number of representative numerical experiments are used to examine the accuracy, robustness and reproducibility of the results generated by the neural network models.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: marginalization over redshift distribution uncertainties using ranking of discrete realizations

ABSTRACT Cosmological information from weak lensing surveys is maximized by sorting source galaxies into tomographic redshift subsamples. Any uncertainties on these redshift distributions must be correctly propagated into the cosmological results. We present hyperrank, a new method for marginalizing over redshift distribution uncertainties, using discrete samples from the space of all possible redshift distributions, improving over simple parametrized models. In hyperrank, the set of proposed redshift distributions is ranked according to a small (between one and four) number of summary values, which are then sampled, along with other nuisance parameters and cosmological parameters in the Monte Carlo chain used for inference. This approach can be regarded as a general method for marginalizing over discrete realizations of data vector variation with nuisance parameters, which can consequently be sampled separately from the main parameters of interest, allowing for increased computational efficiency. We focus on the case of weak lensing cosmic shear analyses and demonstrate our method using simulations made for the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We show that the method can correctly and efficiently marginalize over a wide range of models for the redshift distribution uncertainty. Finally, we compare hyperrank to the common mean-shifting method of marginalizing over redshift uncertainty, validating that this simpler model is sufficient for use in the DES Year 3 cosmology results presented in companion papers.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1981

The question of short pathlengths in interstellar propagation

Interstellar propagation calculations for cosmic rays, He-4 - Ni-64, are compared with currently available abundance ratios for B/C and sub-Fe/Fe. The calculations show that an exponential pathlength distribution (leaky box model) cannot reproduce both secondary to primary ratios in the interval 0.5-1 GeV/n unless some values of the propagation parameters are modified. The calculated ratios are shown to be particularly sensitive to the adopted cross sections, the presence of the sub-Fe elements in the source regions, the shape of the source energy spectrum, and ionization energy loss.

Garcia-Munoz, M.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Impulsive ion injections in the morning auroral region

Low altitude (less than 1000 km) measurements of ions precipitating into the morning auroral region are presented and analyzed. The ion fluxes exhibited time-energy signatures consistent with impulsive injection onto high-altitude field lines, followed by time-of-flight dispersion. The origin of these ions is investigated through the detailed examination of these signatures in conjunction with simultaneous measurements of precipitating electrons and a magnetic field model. A model is developed which indicates that the source for these particles was located in or near the magnetopause boundary layer, with the position deduced to be in the midlatitude flank region about 20-30 R(sub E) tailward of the Earth. The model explains the existence of multiple injections on a given field line as due to a quasi-periodic source, with the periodicity being about 100-200 s at the source. Several mechanisms are examined in an attempt to explain the injections, with a mechanism related to the propagation of waves on the surface of the boundary layer found to be the most plausible. The observations and results are compared to those of similar experiments and some unifying ideas are discussed.

Clemmons, J. H.↗

NASA NTRS2007

General Mission Analysis Tool (GMAT) Acceptance Test Plan [Draft]

The information presented in this Acceptance Test Plan document shows the current status of the General Mission Analysis Tool (GMAT). GMAT is a software system developed by NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) in collaboration with the private sector. The GMAT development team continuously performs acceptance tests in order to verify that the software continues to operate properly after updates are made. The GMAT Development team consists of NASA/GSFC Code 583 software developers, NASA/GSFC Code 595 analysts, and contractors of varying professions. GMAT was developed to provide a development approach that maintains involvement from the private sector and academia, encourages collaborative funding from multiple government agencies and the private sector, and promotes the transfer of technology from government funded research to the private sector. GMAT contains many capabilities, such as integrated formation flying modeling and MATLAB compatibility. The propagation capabilities in GMAT allow for fully coupled dynamics modeling of multiple spacecraft, in any flight regime. Other capabilities in GMAT inclucle: user definable coordinate systems, 3-D graphics in any coordinate system GMAT can calculate, 2-D plots, branch commands, solvers, optimizers, GMAT functions, planetary ephemeris sources including DE405, DE200, SLP and analytic models, script events, impulsive and finite maneuver models, and many more. GMAT runs on Windows, Mac, and Linux platforms. Both the Graphical User Interface (GUI) and the GMAT engine were built and tested on all of the mentioned platforms. GMAT was designed for intuitive use from both the GUI and with an importable script language similar to that of MATLAB.

Dove, Edwin↗

DOE OSTI2021

Propagation of Input Uncertainties in Numerical Simulations of Laser Powder Bed Fusion

Laser powder bed fusion has the potential of redefining state-of-the-art processing and production methods, but defect formation and inconsistent build quality have limited the implementation of this process. Numerical models are widely used to study this process and predict the formation of these defects. Presently, the uncertainties of model input parameters and thermophysical properties used by these numerical simulations have not been investigated. In the present study, the uncertainty in these input parameters and material properties are quantified for laser powder bed fusion, with and without a simulated powder bed, to determine their influence on the predictive accuracy of an experimentally validated numerical model. Accounting for all possible sources of uncertainty quickly becomes computationally expensive on account of the curse of dimensionality. Uncertainty in laser absorption, solid, and liquid specific heat of the metal were found to have the largest effect on model prediction reliability with or without the use of a powder bed. Results also illustrate that accounting for these three uncertain parameters still captures the majority of model prediction uncertainty. Furthermore, the methodology of this study may be used to understand the uncertainty in as-built microstructure through propagation to microstructure prediction models, or applied under processing conditions where high Péclet numbers are observed and the thermal convection and fluid flow within the molten pool are substantial.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Fuel performance uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis in the presence of epistemic and aleatoric sources of uncertainties

Fuel performance modeling and simulation includes many uncertain parameters from models to boundary conditions, manufacturing parameters and material properties. These parameters exhibit large uncertainties and can have an epistemic or aleatoric nature, something that renders fuel performance code-to-code and code-to-measurements comparisons for complex phenomena such as the pellet cladding mechanical interaction (PCMI) very challenging. Additionally, PCMI and other complex phenomena found in fuel performance modeling and simulation induce strong discontinuities and non-linearities that can render difficult to extract meaningful conclusions form uncertainty quantification (UQ) and sensitivity analysis (SA) studies. In this work, we develop and apply a consistent treatment of epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties for both UQ and SA in fuel performance calculations and use historical benchmark-quality measurement data to demonstrate it. More specifically, the developed methodology is applied to the OECD/NEA Multi-physics Pellet Cladding Mechanical Interaction Validation benchmark. A cold ramp test leading to PCMI is modeled. Two measured quantities of interest are considered: the cladding axial elongation during the irradiations and the cladding outer diameter after the cold ramp. The fuel performance code used to perform the simulation is FAST. The developed methodology involves various steps including a Morris screening to decrease the number of uncertain inputs, a nested loop approach for propagating the epistemic and aleatoric sources of uncertainties, and a global SA using Sobol indices. The obtained results indicate that the fuel and cladding thermal conductivities as well as the cladding outer diameter uncertainties are the three inputs having the largest impact on the measured quantities. More importantly, it was found that the epistemic uncertainties can have a significant impact on the measured quantities and can affect the outcome of the global sensitivity analysis.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗