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Probabilistic Blast Damage Modeling Uncertainties and Sensitivities

Blast overpressure is the predominant source of ground damage posed by potentially hazardous asteroid strikes. Estimates of the extent, severity, and likelihoods of potential blast damage regions will be one of the key metrics needed to mount civil defense or disaster response plans in the face of an impending impact. However, there are many inherent sources of uncertainty in evaluating the damage, both in characterizing the properties of the incoming object and in the approaches used to model the entry/impact and resulting damage, which make it difficult to produce a single ‘accurate’ or ‘best guess’ prediction of ground damage. The current 2021 PDC hypothetical impact scenario poses a particular challenge due to its short warning time. The need for rapid disaster response to prepare for an immanent impact, combined with lack of observational opportunities to refine basic knowledge about the object’s basic size and properties, make understanding the range and relative likelihood of consequences particularly critical. The potential damage caused by these blasts can be evaluated using a range of modeling and simulation approaches and levels of fidelity. Fast-running engineering-level models can be used to run large numbers of probabilistically sampled cases covering wide variations of uncertain properties or parameters. High-fidelity simulations, on the other hand, can capture more detailed/accurate blast physics, but can only be performed for a small selection of specific cases, requiring many assumptions to be made about the initial object and its unpredictable entry/breakup characteristics. In order to provide a more complete picture of the potential threat for effective disaster response, both types of analysis need to be employed together. In this approach, high-fidelity simulations are used to refine and anchor engineering models, and the probabilistic engineering models are used to evaluate broad parameters spaces and guide selection of the most pertinent simulation cases for a given scenario. This presentation expands upon the probabilistic asteroid impact risk assessments being performed as part of the 2021 PDC hypothetical impact exercise, focusing on key aspects of blast damage modeling uncertainties and sensitivities. We review the current modeling and simulation approaches employed in the current assessment, compare the relative levels of uncertainty stemming from each main element of the problem (i.e., knowledge of the asteroid properties, modeling of the atmospheric entry/breakup and airburst, and estimates of the ground damage from the resulting blasts waves), and highlight any notable trends and sensitivities for the current scenario case.

SMD↗
NASA NTRS1987

Robust eigenstructure assignment by a projection method: Application using multiple optimization criteria

New ideas which lead to feedback control laws for large flexible structures which are insensitive to model uncertainty are presented. A pole placement method is presented which leads to near-unitary closed loop eigenvectors, and a new method is introduced to design the control while simultaneously considering three competing measures of optimality. Robustness versus Integral algorithms are applicable to at least moderately high-dimensioned systems. In the present discussion, controls for two coupled flexible bodies are considered. A 6x24 gain matrix is designed to control a 12 modes system using 6 actuators. Researchers also developed control laws for the R2P2 simulator at Martin Marietta; in this case 3 actuators are used to control a 12th order system. Simulation studies indicate that researchers indeed achieved robust designs without significant difficulties associated with spillover into the uncontrolled modes. Here, several key ideas and numerical results are given. In the references, details of the formulation, discussions of salient features, and connection to the availiable literature are given.

Junkins, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Modeling of large-amplitude high-angle-of-attack maneuvers

Results from a simulation study to characterize and model rapid, large-amplitude high-angle-of-attack maneuvers of high performance aircraft are summarized. There is concern that conventional aerodynamic math models combining static and small-amplitude demping data may be deficient in properly representing the associated aerodynamics to allow accurate prediction of these types of motion. The objectives of this investigation were: (1) to characterize these maneuvers in order to establish the aerodynamic modeling requirements, (2) to define refinements to address these requirements, and (3) to examine the impact of these refinements on the calculated motions. The results show that accurate modeling of the dynamic terms is vital due to the very high angular rates generated during these maneuvers. It was found that the addition of dynamic terms to include the lateral acceleration derivatives and the rotary aerodynamics can in some cases significantly affect the simulated flight motions.

Angle of attack↗
NASA NTRS2004

Sensitivity of a Cloud-Resolving Model to the Bulk and Explicit Bin Microphysical Schemes

A cloud-resolving model is used to study sensitivities of two different microphysical schemes, one is the traditional bulk type, and the other is an explicit bin scheme, in simulating a mid-latitude squall line case (PRE-STORM, June 10-1 1,1985). Simulations using different microphysical schemes are compared with each other and also with the observations. Both the bulk and bin models reproduce the general features during the developing and mature stage of the system. Furthermore, the observations and the well-proven bulk scheme simulation serve as validations for the newly incorporated bin scheme. However, it is also shown that the bulk and bin simulations have distinct differences, most notably in the stratiform region of the squall line system. Weak convective cells exist in the stratiform region in the bulk simulation, but not in the bin simulation. These weak convective cells in the stratiform region simulated in the bulk scheme model are remnants of the stronger convections previously at the leading edge of the system, sustained by horizontal vorticity generated by its own cool pool near the surface. The bin simulation, on the other hand, has a horizontally homogeneous stratiform cloud structure, which agrees better with the observations. Examinations of the downdraft core strength, the potential temperature perturbation, and the evaporative cooling rate show that the differences between the bulk and bin models are due mainly to the stronger low-level evaporative cooling in the convective zone simulated in the bulk microphysical scheme, which is unrealistic because of the assumptions made in raindrop size distribution. Further sensitivity tests that reduce the evaporation rate in bulk scheme artificially produce more upright convective core and less weak cores in stratiform region. However, they produce weaker upper level outflow and consequently less stratiform rain area. The addition of a more realistic raindrop breakup scheme in the bin scheme results more realistic radar reflectivity and stronger surface rainfall. Despite the increase of the rain evaporation and strengthening of the near surface cool pool, bin scheme with rain breakup shows homogeneous stratiform rain. These sensitivity tests prove the robustness of the bin microphysical scheme and the difficulty of tuning the limited parameters in the bulk microphysical scheme to realistically reproduce detail structures in a mid-latitude squall line case study.

Li, Xiao-Wen↗
NASA NTRS1994

Time-dependent simulation of cosmic-ray shocks, including Alfven transport

Time evolution of plane, cosmic-ray modified shocks has been simulated numerically for the case with parallel magnetic fields. Computations were done in a 'three-fluid' dynamical model incorporating cosmic-ray and Alfven-wave energy transport equations. Nonlinear feedback from the cosmic rays and Alfven waves is included in the equation of motion for the underlying plasma, as is the finite propagation speed and energy dissipation of the Alfven waves. Exploratory results confirm earlier, steady state analyses that found these Alfven transport effects to be potentially important when the upstream Alfven speed and gas sound speeds are comparable. As noted earlier, Alfven transport effects tend to reduce the transfer of energy through a shock from gas to energetic particles. These studies show as well that the timescale for modification of the shock is altered in nonlinear ways. It is clear, however, that the consequences of Alfven transport are strongly model dependent and that both advection of cosmic rays by the waves and dissipation of wave energy in the plasma will be important to model correctly when quantitative results are needed. Comparison is made between simulations based on a constant diffusion coefficient and more realistic diffusion models allowing the diffusion coefficient to vary in response to changes in Alfven wave intensity. No really substantive differences were found between them.

Jones, T. W.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Time dependent simulation of cosmic-ray shocks including Alfven transport

Time evolution of plane, cosmic-ray modified shocks was simulated numerically for the case with parallel magnetic fields. Computations were done in a 'three-fluid' dynamical model incorporating cosmic-ray and Alfven wave energy transport equations. Nonlinear feedback from the cosmic-rays and Alfven waves is included in the equation of motion for the underlying plasma, as is the finite propagation speed and energy dissipation of the Alfven waves. Exploratory results confirm earlier, steady state analyses that found these Alfven transport effects to be potentially important when the upstream Alfven speed and gas sound speeds are comparable. As noted earlier Alfven transport effects tend to reduce the transfer of energy through a shock from gas to energetic particles. These studies show as well that the time scale for modification of the shock is altered in nonlinear ways. It is clear, however, that the consequences of Alfven transport are strongly model dependent and that both advection of cosmic-rays by the waves and dissipation of wave energy in the plasma will be important to model correctly when quantitative results are needed. Comparison is made between simulations based on a constant diffusion coefficient and more realistic diffusion models allowing the diffusion coefficient to vary in response to changes in Alfven wave intensity. No really substantive differences were found between them.

Jones, T. W.↗
NASA NTRS1989

A novel multistage estimation of the signal parameters of a possibly data-modulated sinusoid under very high dynamics

A novel multistage estimation scheme is presented for estimating the parameters of a received carrier signal possibly phase-modulated by unknown data, and experiencing very high Doppler, Doppler rate, etc. Such a situation arises, for example, in the case of Global Positioning Systems (GPS) where the signal parameters are directly related to the position, velocity, acceleration and jerk of the GPS receiver. In the proposed multistage scheme, the first stage estimator operates as a coarse estimator resulting in higher rms estimation errors but with a relatively small probability of the frequency estimation error exceeding one-half of the sampling frequency (an event termed cycle slip). The second state of the estimator operates on the error signal available from the first stage, refining the overall estimates, and in the process also reduces the number of cycle slips. The first stage algorithm is selected to be a modified least squares algorithm operating upon the differential signal model and referred to as differential least squares. This estimation stage provides relatively coarse estimates of the frequency and its derivatives. The second algorithm is simply an extended Kalman filter which also yields the estimate of the phase along with a more refined estimate of frequency as well. A major advantage of the proposed algorithm is a reduction in the threshold on received carrier power-to-noise power spectral density ratio as compared to the threshold achievable by either of these algorithms alone. In fact, it appears from the simulations that for the case of an unmodulated carrier, the proposed scheme achieves the same threshold as for an almost exact and computationally intensive implementation of the maximum likelihood estimator.

Kumar, Rajendra↗
NASA NTRS2007

Plume Impingement to the Lunar Surface: A Challenging Problem for DSMC

The President's Vision for Space Exploration calls for the return of human exploration of the Moon. The plans are ambitious and call for the creation of a lunar outpost. Lunar Landers will therefore be required to land near predeployed hardware, and the dust storm created by the Lunar Lander's plume impingement to the lunar surface presents a hazard. Knowledge of the number density, size distribution, and velocity of the grains in the dust cloud entrained into the flow is needing to develop mitigation strategies. An initial step to acquire such knowledge is simulating the associated plume impingement flow field. The following paper presents results from a loosely coupled continuum flow solver/Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) technique for simulating the plume impingement of the Apollo Lunar module on the lunar surface. These cases were chosen for initial study to allow for comparison with available Apollo video. The relatively high engine thrust and the desire to simulate interesting cases near touchdown result in flow that is nearly entirely continuum. The DSMC region of the flow field was simulated using NASA's DSMC Analysis Code (DAC) and must begin upstream of the impingement shock for the loosely coupled technique to succeed. It was therefore impossible to achieve mean free path resolution with a reasonable number of molecules (say 100 million) as is shown. In order to mitigate accuracy and performance issues when using such large cells, advanced techniques such as collision limiting and nearest neighbor collisions were employed. The final paper will assess the benefits and shortcomings of such techniques. In addition, the effects of plume orientation, plume altitude, and lunar topography, such as craters, on the flow field, the surface pressure distribution, and the surface shear stress distribution are presented.

Lumpkin, Forrest↗
NASA NTRS1981

The potential impact of scatterometry on oceanography - A wave forecasting case

A series of observing system simulation experiments have been performed in order to assess the potential impact of marine surface wind data on numerical weather prediction. In addition to conventional data, the experiments simulated the time-continuous assimilation of remotely sensed marine surface wind or temperature sounding data. The wind data were fabricated directly for model grid points intercepted by a Seasat-1 scatterometer swath and were assimilated into the lowest active level (945 mb) of the model using a localized successive correction method. It is shown that Seasat wind data can greatly improve numerical weather forecasts due to better definition of specific features. The case of the QE II storm is examined.

Cane, M. A.↗
NASA NTRS1971

The calculation of electromagnetic fields in the Fresnel and Fraunhofer regions using numerical integration methods

Some results obtained with a digital computer program written at Goddard Space Flight Center to obtain electromagnetic fields scattered by perfectly reflecting surfaces are presented. For purposes of illustration a paraboloidal reflector was illuminated at radio frequencies in the simulation for both receiving and transmitting modes of operation. Fields were computed in the Fresnel and Fraunhofer regions. A dual-reflector system (Cassegrain) was also simulated for the transmitting case, and fields were computed in the Fraunhofer region. Appended results include derivations which show that the vector Kirchhoff-Kottler formulation has an equivalent form requiring only incident magnetic fields as a driving function. Satisfaction of the radiation conditions at infinity by the equivalent form is demonstrated by a conversion from Cartesian to spherical vector operators. A subsequent development presents the formulation by which Fresnel or Fraunhofer patterns are obtainable for dual-reflector systems. A discussion of the time-average Poynting vector is also appended.

Schmidt, R. F.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Evaluation of shuttle solid rocket booster case materials. Corrosion and stress corrosion susceptibility of several high temperature materials

Candidate alloys for the Shuttle Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) case were tested under simulated service conditions to define subcritical flaw growth behavior under both sustained and cyclic loading conditions. The materials evaluated were D6AC and 18 Ni maraging steel, both heat treated to a nominal yield strength of 1380 MN/sq m (200 ksi). The sustained load tests were conducted by exposing precracked, stressed specimens of both alloys to alternate immersion in synthetic sea water. It was found that the corrosion and stress corrosion resistance of the 18 Ni maraging steel were superior to that of the D6AC steel under these test conditions. It was also found that austenitizing temperature had little influence on the threshold stress intensity of the D6AC. The cyclic tests were conducted by subjecting precracked surface-flawed specimens of both alloys to repeated load/thermal/environmental profiles which were selected to simulate the SRB missions. It was found that linear removal operations that involve heating to 589 K (600 F) cause a decrease in cyclic life of D6AC steel relative to those tests conducted with no thermal cycling.

Pionke, L. J.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Risk to the public from carbon fibers released in civil aircraft accidents

Because carbon fibers are strong, stiff, and lightweight, they are attractive for use in composite structures. Because they also have high electrical conductivity, free carbon fibers settling on electrical conductors can cause malfunctions. If released from the composite by burning, the fibers may become a hazard to exposed electrical and electronic equipment. As part of a Federal study of the potential hazard associated with the use of carbon fibers, NASA assessed the public risk associated with crash fire accidents of civil aircraft. The NASA study projected a dramatic increase in the use of carbon composites in civil aircraft and developed technical data to support the risk assessment. Personal injury was found to be extremely unlikely. In 1993, the year chosen as a focus for the study, the expected annual cost of damage caused by released carbon fibers is only $1000. Even the worst-case carbon fiber incident simulated (costing $178,000 once in 34,000 years) was relatively low-cost compared with the usual air transport accident cost. On the basis of these observations, the NASA study concluded that exploitation of composites should continue, that additional protection of avionics is unnecessary, and that development of alternate materials specifically to overcome this problem is not justified.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1981

Artificial stereo presentation of meteorological data fields

The innate capability to perceive three-dimensional stereo imagery has been exploited to present multidimensional meteorological data fields. Variations on an artificial stereo technique first discussed by Pichel et al. (1973) are used to display single and multispectral images in a vivid and easily assimilated manner. Examples of visible/infrared artificial stereo are given for Hurricane Allen and for severe thunderstorms on 10 April 1979. Three-dimensional output from a mesoscale model also is presented. The images may be viewed through the glasses inserted in the February 1981 issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, with the red lens over the right eye. The images have been produced on the interactive Atmospheric and Oceanographic Information Processing System (AOIPS) at Goddard Space Flight Center. Stereo presentation is an important aid in understanding meteorological phenomena for operational weather forecasting, research case studies, and model simulations.

Hasler, A. F.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Autonomous satellite navigation by stellar refraction

This paper describes an error analysis of an autonomous navigator using refraction measurements of starlight passing through the upper atmosphere. The analysis is based on a discrete linear Kalman filter. The filter generated steady-state values of navigator performance for a variety of test cases. Results of these simulations show that in low-earth orbit position-error standard deviations of less than 0.100 km may be obtained using only 40 star sightings per orbit.

Gounley, R.↗
NASA NTRS1983

A dynamic model of thundercloud electric fields

A description is given of the first results obtained with a new type of dynamic electrical model of a thundercloud that allows the charge rearrangement produced in arc breakdown, as well as the conduction and displacement currents, to be calculated with realistic generator configurations. The model demonstrates the great complexity of behavior of thunderclouds owing to the interaction of the nonlinear breakdown mechanisms, the energy stored in the electric field, and a conductivity that varies with altitude. It is also seen that dynamic charge distributions and electric fields are quite different from static distributions. It is noted that these differences affect the initial conditions before and after lightning strokes. The conduction current density to the ionosphere is very much larger in the dynamic cases than in static simulations. Such basic properties of thunderclouds as the production of cloud-to-ground strokes are seen as compatible only with a very limited range of thundercloud models. Another finding is that coronal and convection currents cause the electric fields at the surface to be much smaller than they would be in their absence.

Nisbet, J. S.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Magnetization models for the source of the 'Kentucky anomaly' observed by Magsat

Both the aeromagnetic data and magnetic anomaly data obtained by Magsat indicate the presence of a very magnetic source region within the crust beneath Kentucky and Tennessee. A source model was previously developed to fit surface gravity and long-wavelength aeromagnetic data, using limited seismic constraint. For the present study the model was further developed, and it is demonstrated that the source region for the satellite anomaly is considerably more extensive than the Kentucky body sensu stricto. The extended source region is modeled using both prismatic model sources and dipole array sources. Magnetization directions for the source region found by inversion of various combinations of scalar and vector data are found to be close to the main field direction, implying the lack of a strong remanent component. It is shown by simulation that in a case (such as this) where the geometry of the source is known, if a strong remanent component is present its direction is determinable, but by scalar data as readily as vector data. Magnetization magnitude for the extended source region is about 3 A/m if the vertical extent of the source includes the whole of the crust.

Mayhew, M. A.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Orbits: Computer simulation

In rotating machinery dynamics an orbit (Lissajous curve) represents the dynamic path of the shaft centerline motion during shaft rotation and resulting precession. The orbit can be observed with an oscilloscope connected to XY promixity probes. The orbits can also be simulated by a computer. The software for HP computer simulates orbits for two cases: (1) Symmetric orbit with four frequency components with different radial amplitudes and relative phase angles; and (2) Nonsymmetric orbit with two frequency components with two different vertical/horizontal amplitudes and two different relative phase angles. Each orbit carries a Keyphasor mark (one-per-turn reference). The frequencies, amplitudes, and phase angles, as well as number of time steps for orbit computation, have to be chosen and introduced to the computer by the user. The orbit graphs can be observed on the computer screen.

Muszynska, A.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Development and testing of a simple assimilation technique to derive average wind fields from simulated scatterometer data

A simple algorithm is developed and tested to derive a regularly spaced wind field in a limited area from simulated multiorbit scatterometer data. The data are generated by sampling a time-varying known wind field, the 1000-mb FGGE data, from a simulated scatterometer. A simple assimilation technique is used to derive a regularly spaced (100-km grid) wind field representation of two-day averages from the simulated data. Several test cases are considered, and it is noted that the assimilation technique might be applicable to large-scale ocean or atmospheric models.

Legler, D. M.↗