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At least 505 records · Page 28

Design sensitivity analysis for an aeroelastic optimization of a helicopter blade

The sensitivity of vibratory hub loads of a four-bladed hingeless rotor with respect to blade design parameters is investigated using a finite element formulation in space and time. Design parameters include nonstructural mass distribution (spanwise and chordwise), chordwise offset of center of gravity from aerodynamic center, blade bending stiffnesses (flap, lag and torsion). Hub loads selected are 4/rev vertical hub shear and 3/rev hub moment in the rotating reference frame. The sensitivity derivatives of vertical hub loads with respect to blade design parameters are compared using two approaches, finite difference scheme and analytical approach using chain rule differentiation. The analytical derivative approach developed as an integral part of response solution (finite element in time) is a powerful method for an aeroelastic optimization of a helicopter rotor.

Lim, Joon↗

A High-fidelity Performance and Sensitivity Analysis of X-ray Pulsar Navigation in Near-Earth and Cislunar Orbits

Millisecond X-ray pulsars are rapidly rotating neutron stars that emit broadband electromagnetic radiation, including X-rays. These emissions can appear as pulsations to distant observers with long-term stabilityrivaling laboratory atomic clocks. The concept of using X-ray pulsars for navigation, commonly referred to as XNAV, has a long history in the research literature. Notably, in 2017, NASA’s Station Explorer for X-ray Timing and Navigation (SEXTANT) mission,a technology enhancement to the Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer, made a successful on-orbit demonstration of XNAV on the International Space Station (ISS) in Low-Earth-Orbit. This paper investigates the performance of XNAV in Earth and lunar regimes using a new high-fidelity XNAV analysis tool that builds on tools developed for SEXTANT and uses recent updates to the Goddard Enhanced Onboard Navigation System flight software. Specifically, we study the use of XNAV in an ISS-like orbit for comparison with SEXTANT results, in a highly-inclined geosynchronous orbit, and in an Earth-Moon L1 libration point Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit similar to that proposed for the planned lunar Gateway space station. This paper provides a high-level description of the XNAV analysis tool, baseline predicted performance results, selected sensitivity analyses, and conclusions.

Luke B Winternitz↗

TH-CD-207A-11: Sensitivity Analysis of Action Limits for Real-Time EPID-Based Delivery Verification System Using Artificial Clinical Relevant Error Simulations

Purpose: A real-time patient treatment delivery verification system using EPID (Watchdog) has been developed as an advanced patient safety tool. In a pilot study data was acquired for 119 prostate and head and neck (HN) IMRT patient deliveries to generate body-site specific action limits using statistical process control. The purpose of this study is to determine the sensitivity of Watchdog to detect clinically significant errors during treatment delivery. Methods: Watchdog utilizes a physics-based model to generate a series of predicted transit cine EPID images as a reference data set, and compares these in real-time to measured transit cine-EPID images acquired during treatment using chi comparison (4%, 4mm criteria) after the initial 2s of treatment to allow for dose ramp-up. Four study cases were used; dosimetric (monitor unit) errors in prostate (7 fields) and HN (9 fields) IMRT treatments of (5%, 7%, 10%) and positioning (systematic displacement) errors in the same treatments of (5mm, 7mm, 10mm). These errors were introduced by modifying the patient CT scan and re-calculating the predicted EPID data set. The error embedded predicted EPID data sets were compared to the measured EPID data acquired during patient treatment. The treatment delivery percentage (measured from 2s) where Watchdog detected the error was determined. Results: Watchdog detected all simulated errors for all fields during delivery. The dosimetric errors were detected at average treatment delivery percentage of (4%, 0%, 0%) and (7%, 0%, 0%) for prostate and HN respectively. For patient positional errors, the average treatment delivery percentage was (52%, 43%, 25%) and (39%, 16%, 6%). Conclusion: These results suggest that Watchdog can detect significant dosimetric and positioning errors in prostate and HN IMRT treatments in real-time allowing for treatment interruption. Displacements of the patient require longer to detect however incorrect body site or very large geographic misses will be detected rapidly.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DAKOTA : a multilevel parallel object-oriented framework for design optimization, parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis.

The DAKOTA (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. DAKOTA contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the DAKOTA toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a theoretical manual for selected algorithms implemented within the DAKOTA software. It is not intended as a comprehensive theoretical treatment, since a number of existing texts cover general optimization theory, statistical analysis, and other introductory topics. Rather, this manual is intended to summarize a set of DAKOTA-related research publications in the areas of surrogate-based optimization, uncertainty quantification, and optimization under uncertainty that provide the foundation for many of DAKOTA's iterative analysis capabilities.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Fast variance reduction for steady-state simulation and sensitivity analysis of stochastic chemical systems using shadow function estimators

We address the problem of estimating steady-state quantities associated to systems of stochastic chemical kinetics. In most cases of interest, these systems are analytically intractable, and one has to resort to computational methods to estimate stationary values of cost functions. In this work, we introduce a novel variance reduction algorithm for stochastic chemical kinetics, inspired by related methods in queueing theory, in particular the use of shadow functions. Using two numerical examples, we demonstrate the efficiency of the method for the calculation of steady-state parametric sensitivities and evaluate its performance in comparison to other estimation methods.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Orbit determination error analysis and comparison of station-keeping costs for Lissajous and halo-type libration point orbits and sensitivity analysis using experimental design techniques

Spacecraft in orbit near libration point L1 in the Sun-Earth system are excellent platforms for research concerning solar effects on the terrestrial environment. One spacecraft mission launched in 1978 used an L1 orbit for nearly 4 years, and future L1 orbital missions are also being planned. Orbit determination and station-keeping are, however, required for these orbits. In particular, orbit determination error analysis may be used to compute the state uncertainty after a predetermined tracking period; the predicted state uncertainty levels then will impact the control costs computed in station-keeping simulations. Error sources, such as solar radiation pressure and planetary mass uncertainties, are also incorporated. For future missions, there may be some flexibility in the type and size of the spacecraft's nominal trajectory, but different orbits may produce varying error analysis and station-keeping results. The nominal path, for instance, can be (nearly) periodic or distinctly quasi-periodic. A periodic 'halo' orbit may be constructed to be significantly larger than a quasi-periodic 'Lissajous' path; both may meet mission requirements, but perhaps the required control costs for these orbits are probably different. Also for this spacecraft tracking and control simulation problem, experimental design methods can be used to determine the most significant uncertainties. That is, these methods can determine the error sources in the tracking and control problem that most impact the control cost (output); it also produces an equation that gives the approximate functional relationship between the error inputs and the output.

Gordon, Steven C.↗

Sensitivity Analysis of Fluid–Fluid Interfacial Area, Phase Saturation and Phase Connectivity on Relative Permeability Estimation Using Machine Learning Algorithms

Recent studies have shown that relative permeability can be modeled as a state function which is independent of flow direction and dependent upon phase saturation (S), phase connectivity (X), and fluid–fluid interfacial area (A). This study evaluates the impact of each of the three state parameters (S, X, and A) in the estimation of relative permeability. The relative importance of the three state parameters in four separate quadrants of S-X-A space was evaluated using a machine learning algorithm (out-of-bag predictor importance method). The results show that relative permeability is sensitive to all the three parameters, S, X, and A, with varying magnitudes in each of the four quadrants at a constant value of wettability. We observe that the wetting-phase relative permeability is most sensitive to saturation, while the non-wetting phase is most sensitive to phase connectivity. Although the least important, fluid–fluid interfacial area is still important to make the relative permeability a more exact state function.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Automated divertor target design by adjoint shape sensitivity analysis and a one-shot method

As magnetic confinement fusion progresses towards the development of first reactor-scale devices, computational tokamak divertor design is a topic of high priority. Presently, edge plasma codes are used in a forward approach, where magnetic field and divertor geometry are manually adjusted to meet design requirements. Due to the complex edge plasma flows and large number of design variables, this method is computationally very demanding. On the other hand, efficient optimization-based design strategies have been developed in computational aerodynamics and fluid mechanics. Such an optimization approach to divertor target shape design is elaborated in the present paper. A general formulation of the design problems is given, and conditions characterizing the optimal designs are formulated. Using a continuous adjoint framework, design sensitivities can be computed at a cost of only two edge plasma simulations, independent of the number of design variables. Furthermore, by using a one-shot method the entire optimization problem can be solved at an equivalent cost of only a few forward simulations. The methodology is applied to target shape design for uniform power load, in simplified edge plasma geometry.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Sensitivity analysis of large system of chemical kinetic parameters for engine combustion simulation

In this study, the authors applied the state-of-the art sensitivity methods to downselect system parameters from 4000+ to 8, (23000+ -> 4000+ -> 84 -> 8). This analysis procedure paves the way for future works: (1) calibrate the system response using existed experimental observations, and (2) predict future experiment results, using the calibrated system.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

BASS: An R Package for Fitting and Performing Sensitivity Analysis of Bayesian Adaptive Spline Surfaces

In this work, we present the R package BASS as a tool for nonparametric regression. The primary focus of the package is fitting fully Bayesian adaptive spline surface (BASS) models and performing global sensitivity analyses of these models. The BASS framework is similar to that of Bayesian multivariate adaptive regression splines (BMARS) from Denison, Mallick, and Smith (1998), but with many added features. The software is built to efficiently handle significant amounts of data with many continuous or categorical predictors and with functional response. Under our Bayesian framework, most priors are automatic but these can be modified by the user to focus on parsimony and the avoidance of overfitting. If directed to do so, the software uses parallel tempering to improve the reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) methods used to perform inference. We discuss the implementation of these features and present the performance of BASS in a number of analyses of simulated and real data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Quantitative and sensitive analysis of CN molecules using laser induced low pressure He plasma

We report the results of experimental study on CN 388.3 nm and C I 247.8 nm emission characteristics using 40 mJ laser irradiation with He and N{sub 2} ambient gases. The results obtained with N{sub 2} ambient gas show undesirable interference effect between the native CN emission and the emission of CN molecules arising from the recombination of native C ablated from the sample with the N dissociated from the ambient gas. This problem is overcome by the use of He ambient gas at low pressure of 2 kPa, which also offers the additional advantages of cleaner and stronger emission lines. The result of applying this favorable experimental condition to emission spectrochemical measurement of milk sample having various protein concentrations is shown to yield a close to linear calibration curve with near zero extrapolated intercept. Additionally, a low detection limit of 5 μg/g is found in this experiment, making it potentially applicable for quantitative and sensitive CN analysis. The visibility of laser induced breakdown spectroscopy with low pressure He gas is also demonstrated by the result of its application to spectrochemical analysis of fossil samples. Furthermore, with the use of CO{sub 2} ambient gas at 600 Pa mimicking the Mars atmosphere, this technique also shows promising applications to exploration in Mars.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Sensitivity Analysis for Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) CO2 Retrieval

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) is a thermal infrared sensor able to retrieve the daily atmospheric state globally for clear as well as partially cloudy field-of-views. The AIRS spectrometer has 2378 channels sensing from 15.4 micrometers to 3.7 micrometers, of which a small subset in the 15 micrometers region has been selected, to date, for CO2 retrieval. To improve upon the current retrieval method, we extended the retrieval calculations to include a prior estimate component and developed a channel ranking system to optimize the channels and number of channels used. The channel ranking system uses a mathematical formalism to rapidly process and assess the retrieval potential of large numbers of channels. Implementing this system, we identifed a larger optimized subset of AIRS channels that can decrease retrieval errors and minimize the overall sensitivity to other iridescent contributors, such as water vapor, ozone, and atmospheric temperature. This methodology selects channels globally by accounting for the latitudinal, longitudinal, and seasonal dependencies of the subset. The new methodology increases accuracy in AIRS CO2 as well as other retrievals and enables the extension of retrieved CO2 vertical profiles to altitudes ranging from the lower troposphere to upper stratosphere. The extended retrieval method for CO2 vertical profile estimation using a maximum-likelihood estimation method. We use model data to demonstrate the beneficial impact of the extended retrieval method using the new channel ranking system on CO2 retrieval.

sensitivity analysis↗

Sum over Histories Representation for Kinetic Sensitivity Analysis: How Chemical Pathways Change When Reaction Rate Coefficients Are Varied

The sensitivity of kinetic observables is analyzed using a newly developed sum over histories representation of chemical kinetics. In the sum over histories representation, the concentrations of the chemical species are decomposed into the sum of probabilities for chemical pathways that follow molecules from reactants to products or intermediates. Unlike static flux methods for reaction path analysis, the sum over histories approach includes the explicit time dependence of the pathway probabilities. Using the sum over histories representation, the sensitivity of an observable with respect to a kinetic parameter such as a rate coefficient is then analyzed in terms of how that parameter affects the chemical pathway probabilities. The method is illustrated for species concentration target functions in H-2 combustion where the rate coefficients are allowed to vary over their associated uncertainty ranges. It is found that large sensitivities are often associated with rate limiting steps along important chemical pathways or by reactions that control the branching of reactive flux

chemical kinetics↗

Sensitivity analysis of the technical and economic feasibility of converter-interfaced CHP System

The adoption of small-to-medium sized (1MW~20MW) combined heat and power (CHP) system is lagging, especially in industrial and commercial applications. Our prior research has proved that interfacing CHP with grid-ready converters can increase its economic value and technical benefits; this paper is focused on investigating the critical parameters impacting profitability of converter-interfaced CHP, including CHP sizing scenario, energy price, generator cost, converter cost, voltage support price, converter to engine size ratio and interconnection delay. An automatic toolkit for evaluating CHP return on investment (ROI) is developed to enhance the computation capability and efficiency. Based on varying the value of critical parameters, 975 use cases are analyzed. Results show that the profitability of converter-interfaced CHP over directly-coupled CHP is more sensitive to energy price, delays in interconnection process, converter cost and much less to generator cost or voltage support price.

converter, CHP, ROI, economic feasibility, sensiti↗

Sensitivity Analysis of the Static Aeroelastic Response of a Wing

A technique to obtain the sensitivity of the static aeroelastic response of a three dimensional wing model is designed and implemented. The formulation is quite general and accepts any aerodynamic and structural analysis capability. A program to combine the discipline level, or local, sensitivities into global sensitivity derivatives is developed. A variety of representations of the wing pressure field are developed and tested to determine the most accurate and efficient scheme for representing the field outside of the aerodynamic code. Chebyshev polynomials are used to globally fit the pressure field. This approach had some difficulties in representing local variations in the field, so a variety of local interpolation polynomial pressure representations are also implemented. These panel based representations use a constant pressure value, a bilinearly interpolated value. or a biquadraticallv interpolated value. The interpolation polynomial approaches do an excellent job of reducing the numerical problems of the global approach for comparable computational effort. Regardless of the pressure representation used. sensitivity and response results with excellent accuracy have been produced for large integrated quantities such as wing tip deflection and trim angle of attack. The sensitivities of such things as individual generalized displacements have been found with fair accuracy. In general, accuracy is found to be proportional to the relative size of the derivatives to the quantity itself.

Eldred, Lloyd B.↗

Simplified Least Squares Shadowing sensitivity analysis for chaotic ODEs and PDEs

This paper develops a variant of the Least Squares Shadowing (LSS) method, which has successfully computed the derivative for several chaotic ODEs and PDEs. The development in this paper aims to simplify Least Squares Shadowing method by improving how time dilation is treated. Instead of adding an explicit time dilation term as in the original method, the new variant uses windowing, which can be more efficient and simpler to implement, especially for PDEs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗