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A Review of Recent and Emerging Machine Learning Applications for Climate Variability and Weather Phenomena

Abstract Climate variability and weather phenomena can cause extremes and pose significant risk to society and ecosystems, making continued advances in our physical understanding of such events of utmost importance for regional and global security. Advances in machine learning (ML) have been leveraged for applications in climate variability and weather, empowering scientists to approach questions using big data in new ways. Growing interest across the scientific community in these areas has motivated coordination between the physical and computer science disciplines to further advance the state of the science and tackle pressing challenges. During a recently held workshop that had participants across academia, private industry, and research laboratories, it became clear that a comprehensive review of recent and emerging ML applications for climate variability and weather phenomena that can cause extremes was needed. This article aims to fulfill this need by discussing recent advances, challenges, and research priorities in the following topics: sources of predictability for modes of climate variability, feature detection, extreme weather and climate prediction and precursors, observation–model integration, downscaling, and bias correction. This article provides a review for domain scientists seeking to incorporate ML into their research. It also provides a review for those with some ML experience seeking to broaden their knowledge of ML applications for climate variability and weather.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Development of a Commercially Viable, Modular Autonomous Robotic Systems for Converting any Vehicle to Autonomous Control

A Modular Autonomous Robotic System (MARS), consisting of a modular autonomous vehicle control system that can be retrofit on to any vehicle to convert it to autonomous control and support a modular payload for multiple applications is being developed. The MARS design is scalable, reconfigurable, and cost effective due to the use of modern open system architecture design methodologies, including serial control bus technology to simplify system wiring and enhance scalability. The design is augmented with modular, object oriented (C++) software implementing a hierarchy of five levels of control including teleoperated, continuous guidepath following, periodic guidepath following, absolute position autonomous navigation, and relative position autonomous navigation. The present effort is focused on producing a system that is commercially viable for routine autonomous patrolling of known, semistructured environments, like environmental monitoring of chemical and petroleum refineries, exterior physical security and surveillance, perimeter patrolling, and intrafacility transport applications.

guidepath position navigation control system↗

Mitigate: An Adaptive Network Data Anonymization Tool Using Condensation-Based Differential Privacy

Modern network devices collect a large amount of data that can be analyzed to identify bottlenecks, anomalies, cyber-attacks, etc. Therefore, there is often a need to analyze such collections of network data quite often by an external expert or by the research community. However, these collections of data contain sensitive, proprietary information. In order for the network data to be shared, it must first be anonymized. The overall objective of this project is to develop an innovative privacy management tool to anonymize network data and achieve sufficient privacy, acceptable data utility, and efficient data analysis at the same time. No existing anonymization methods can achieve all of these at the same time. The core of this technology is a differential private clustering algorithm that provides strong privacy protection, preserves data properties important for subsequent analysis, and allows the party receiving the anonymized data to conduct analysis directly on anonymized data without the need of decryption or any extra processing. The research carried out was to design, implement and verify a solution to this problem by completing the following tasks: 1) developing the core technology; 2) developing a context based method that automatically recommends fields that must be anonymized; 3) conducted experiments showing superior results using our approach compared to existing tools, and 4) developed an intuitive but basic user interface. The research that was conducted generated novel algorithmic techniques that utilize state-of-the-art methods such as condensation, differential privacy preservation, clustering, automated tuning based on contextual awareness, and recommendation techniques to specify columns to users for anonymization leading to optimal privacy that allows research analysis on the dataset. Experiments were conducted to evaluate the efficacy of these novel algorithmic techniques by performing analysis on original non-anonymized datasets, then conducting analysis on the same yet anonymized datasets and comparing the results of the analyses. Overall, the anonymized analysis results were within 1% of the original results, verifying that the generated technology not only guarantees a high level of privacy but also enables research analysis as if it were conducted on the original dataset. Potential applications of this technology include anonymization of any type of structured network datasets that contain sensitive identifiers, such as IP addresses, that can be used in multiple applications. For example, to create an AI or machine learning model for cyber security, e.g., to detect attacks, or for performance analysis, e.g., identify bottlenecks or predict performance. In addition, a market analysis that was conducted for potential applications of this technology identified a broader range of applications of our anonymization technology beyond the network sector that includes healthcare, banking, insurance, securities, finance (FISB), data brokering, cloud services, ad sales, and government.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Cyber100 Compass: Quantification of Cybersecurity Risks for Systems Transitioning to High Levels of Renewables (Final Report)

The shift to high levels of renewable deployment will entail a significant re-engineering of the grid. As investors, utilities, customers, and others prepare for clean energy transitions, there is need to understand how restructuring the grid to accommodate renewables will change the attack surface of the grid and accompanying cyber risk. However, today the cyber-physical risks associated with electric grids incorporating high levels of renewable deployment remain largely unknown. The Cyber100 Compass proof-of-concept application attempts to quantify future cyber-physical security risks by combining risk data gathered from subject matter experts (SMEs) with input from system planners about conditions they expect to be true about their electric systems in the future. Users provide data about their organization’s tolerance for risk; the value they place on avoiding the consequences of different cyber events; and conditions that they expect to be true on their systems at some point in the future. The SMEs provide baseline probabilities for different cyber events; the probability that an event will be low-, moderate-, or high-impact; and the amount by which user-identified conditions on their systems will change the likelihood of the cyber events. The application takes both the user and SME input and performs a series of Monte Carlo simulations to arrive at a quantification of risk.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Reliability of Digital Communications in Nuclear Facilities and Operations

A comprehensive evaluation of methods to compare the reliability of wired and wireless digital communication networks for use in nuclear power plants. The study underscores the critical role of communication reliability in ensuring operational safety in nuclear power plants. Key objectives include developing a methodology to assess communication technologies’ reliability, particularly for comparing wireless and wired networks, for nuclear facility applications. The framework focuses on technology-agnostic evaluations and emphasizes the importance of reliability metrics spanning safety, security, and monitoring functions. The framework emphasizes that the key performance indicators are application dependent and provides a hierarchy of different network types that will have different reliability requirements. The report considers both existing plants and advanced reactors, including small modular reactors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Collision Tracking in OpenMC: Methods and Applications in Neutron Noise, Neutron Imaging, Time-of-Flight, and Multiplicity Counting

We present the development and application of a collision tracking feature within the OpenMC Monte Carlo particle transport code, designed for diverse applications such as neutron spectroscopy, scatter camera system, neutron noise, and multiplicity counting simulations. This feature enables the tracking of individual particle collisions, with potential applications in nuclear nonproliferation, reactor physics, and nuclear security. Additionally, the feature holds potential for the calibration of neutron detectors, specifically in converting light output into energy deposited within the detectors. The implementation consists of a set of filters—such as reaction type, energy, cell, and material—that constrain the set of collisions that are tracked, extensions to the Python API to enable simple input specification, and support for writing either OpenMC’s native HDF5-based format or the Monte Carlo particle list format. This feature was added to the official OpenMC release in version 0.15.3. In this work, the feature will be applied to showcase scenarios such as time-of-flight simulations, scatter-camera imaging for neutron source localization, neutron-noise analysis to extract integral kinetic parameters such as the prompt decay constant α, and multiplicity counting to estimate the mass of special nuclear materials. Ultimately, this feature aims to expand the application scope of open-source Monte Carlo particle transport codes such as OpenMC.

Monte Carlo code↗

Expedited Walkdowns and Preparation of Cost Estimates for Decontamination and Demolition of Excess Facilities - 20335

Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC (LLNS) is the prime contractor responsible for managing and operating Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). The mission of the LLNL is to strengthen security of the United States through development and application of world-class science and technology to enhance the nation's defense, reduce the global threat from terrorism and weapons of mass destruction, and respond with vision, quality, integrity, and technical excellence to scientific issues of national importance. To accomplish its mission, LLNL must plan and manage its campus space and facilities to optimize use of its relatively small one-square-mile footprint. LLNL currently has numerous excess facilities that require decontamination and demolition (D and D). The LLNL Legacy Facility Program is responsible for stewardship and risk reduction programs to effectively manage these excess assets at LLNL. The Legacy Facility Program identified 10 excess facilities at LLNL that were candidates for demolition based on risks from further degradation of the facilities, potential exposure to hazardous materials, or need for removal to make way for new program facilities. The buildings range from a structure built in 1943 to serve as a US Navy drill hall during World War II, to a facility that provided neutrons to study material properties for the fusion energy program. The National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) appropriated FY19 funding for the development of Class 3 estimates for these 10 excess facilities that would be used to develop a Program Management Plan for funding consideration. Class 3 estimates are not conceptual, nor overly detailed, but adequate to be used for budget and appropriation purposes. Using existing strategic sourcing agreements, LLNL was able to organize a team of senior subject matter experts (SMEs) with diverse technical backgrounds across the Department of Energy (DOE) Complex to complete extensive process knowledge (PK) reviews and walk-downs of each excess facility and to deliver accurate and complete estimates under an expedited schedule (i.e., within eight weeks). To facilitate the expedited schedule, LLNL was fully prepared for the arrival of the JGMS team, which consisted of the following companies: J.G. Management Systems, Inc. (JGMS); Strata-G, LLC; and Michael Baker International. LLNL provided background and PK information on the excess facilities, pictures, supporting historical documentation, and radiological survey history as well as escorted access to the facilities. The JGMS team has previous experience supporting Program Management Plans for excess facilities at the Y-12 National Security Complex. The team mobilized to LLNL and performed the facility walk-downs from January 22-25, 2019. Using a methodical evaluation process, expertise, and experience, the team was able to deliver walk-down draft reports and estimates to LLNL before their February 8, 2019 deadline. LLNL then in turn reviewed, completed the estimates by adding waste management costs and other LLNL costs, and delivered the estimates to NNSA by February 15, 2019. The completed final reports, including draft D and D estimates, were delivered to LLNL before their March 6, 2019 deadline. The work was successfully completed ahead of the expedited schedule required by LLNL, resulting in a commendation from the client. This paper describes how the partnership and collaboration as a fully integrated team comprised of the prime contractor, LLNS, and the JGMS team successfully met the needs of the US government, resulting in the performance of expedited site walk-downs, the development of summary evaluation reports, and the preparation of draft Class 3 estimates and preliminary schedules for the D and D of 10 excess facilities at LLNL. The efforts of the team will enable the D and D of the first excess facility in the 2020-2021 time frame. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Methods and systems for detection of man-in-the-middle attacks for SCADA communication networks and applications of same

A system for detecting MITM for SCADA communication networks includes secure substation-substation communication links for providing secure and reliable paths to exchange OT data between substations for OT data consistency check; a SIB in each substation for sampling CT and PT measurements to calculate voltage magnitude and phase angle thereof; a S&C server in each substation coupled to the SIB for receiving the voltage magnitude and phase angle from the SIB and obtaining a packet carrying active power flow in transmission lines between two substations and a time stamp; an IDS server placed in a SCADA center for collecting the packet of each substation sent by the S&C server; analyzing the received packet from every adjacent substation; inspecting the payload of the received packet; and triggering an intrusion alarm to a SCADA operator when the power flow is not the same as the payload of the packets.

McCann, Roy A.↗

Enhanced Images for Checked and Carry-on Baggage and Cargo Screening

The current X-ray systems used by airport security personnel for the detection of contraband, and objects such as knives and guns that can impact the security of a flight, have limited effect because of the limited display quality of the X-ray images. Since the displayed images do not possess optimal contrast and sharpness, it is possible for the security personnel to miss potentially hazardous objects. This problem is also common to other disciplines such as medical Xrays, and can be mitigated, to a large extent, by the use of state-of-the-art image processing techniques to enhance the contrast and sharpness of the displayed image. The NASA Langley Research Center's Visual Information Processing Group has developed an image enhancement technology that has direct applications to this problem of inadequate display quality. Airport security X-ray imaging systems would benefit considerably by using this novel technology, making the task of the personnel who have to interpret the X-ray images considerably easier, faster, and more reliable. This improvement would translate into more accurate screening as well as minimizing the screening time delays to airline passengers. This technology, Retinex, has been optimized for consumer applications but has been applied to medical X-rays on a very preliminary basis. The resultant technology could be incorporated into a new breed of commercial x-ray imaging systems which would be transparent to the screener yet allow them to see subtle detail much more easily, reducing the amount of time needed for screening while greatly increasing the effectiveness of contraband detection and thus public safety.

Woodell, Glenn↗

Enhanced Images for Checked and Carry-on Baggage and Cargo Screening

The current X-ray systems used by airport security personnel for the detection of contraband, and objects such as knives and guns that can impact the security of a flight, have limited effect because of the limited display quality of the X-ray images. Since the displayed images do not possess optimal contrast and sharpness, it is possible for the security personnel to miss potentially hazardous objects. This problem is also common to other disciplines such as medical X-rays, and can be mitigated, to a large extent, by the use of state-of-the-art image processing techniques to enhance the contrast and sharpness of the displayed image. The NASA Langley Research Centers Visual Information Processing Group has developed an image enhancement technology that has direct applications to this problem of inadequate display quality. Airport security X-ray imaging systems would benefit considerably by using this novel technology, making the task of the personnel who have to interpret the X-ray images considerably easier, faster, and more reliable. This improvement would translate into more accurate screening as well as minimizing the screening time delays to airline passengers. This technology, Retinex, has been optimized for consumer applications but has been applied to medical X-rays on a very preliminary basis. The resultant technology could be incorporated into a new breed of commercial x-ray imaging systems which would be transparent to the screener yet allow them to see subtle detail much more easily, reducing the amount of time needed for screening while greatly increasing the effectiveness of contraband detection and thus public safety.

Woodell, Glen↗

Angular-spectral filtering of recoil protons for optimization of fast neutron imaging employing proton converters

Fast neutron imaging is an important capability for diverse applications such as inertial confinement fusion diagnostics, cargo security, nuclear nonproliferation and arms control, and industrial inspection. Traditional phosphor image plates can be enhanced for fast neutron imaging using hydrogenous plastic converters which allow fast neutrons to scatter off hydrogen nuclei to produce energetic protons that can be recorded by the image plate. However, protons emitted by image plates are not constrained in their emission angle, which contributes to the blur of the resulting image. Here, we investigate two methods that can alter the spatial extent of converted protons that deposit energy in the image plate: reducing the converter thickness, and introducing a proton filter between the plastic converter and image plate to reduce the contribution of lower-energy, off-axis protons to the image. Here we determine the optimal plastic converter thickness for maximizing the signal intensity to be 2–3 mm through Monte Carlo simulations, and we benchmark this result against experimental measurements with a deuterium-tritium (DT) neutron generator. Next, we evaluate the image smearing and signal loss for various converters to show that solely reducing the converter thickness has the expected effect of reducing the blur from proton image smearing of the sharpness of an edge recorded on the image plate at the cost of reducing the signal intensity. The use of a proton filter is shown to achieve a similar improvement of edge sharpness as reducing the converter thickness while also sacrificing the signal intensity. We conclude that the use of proton energy filtering can improve the sharpness of fast neutron images in situations where the converter thickness cannot be reduced below some practical minimum. For more intense neutron sources, the signal intensity is of less concern, and optimizing the resolution of the image plate and therefore of the imaging system could have greater value. In these applications, proton filters may allow for improved fast neutron imaging measurements.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Autonomous Energy Systems Functional Interoperability

Functional Interoperability is the capability of two or more networks, systems, devices, applications, or components to externally exchange and readily use information securely and effectively in order to achieve a stated objective. Our proposition is that NREL's ARIES capability is ideal to evaluate functional interoperability by defining use case (objective) and scenarios, by integrating systems, devices, and applications in a realistic laboratory environment, and by simulating scenarios.

ARIES↗

Guided Resilience Self Assessment Application

Reliable electricity access is vital for everything from hospitals to national security. When grid disturbances occur, it is crucial to minimize the amount of time it takes to recover. Grid resiliency considers both the preparation for and recovery from high-impact low-frequency disturbances (HILF) such as weather events and cyber attacks. The Department of Energy (DOE) Wind Energy Technologies Office (WETO) funds the multi-laboratory Microgrids, Infrastructure Resilience, and Advanced Control Launchpad (MIRACL) project to investigate technologies to support and grow distributed wind. Researchers at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) contribute to resilience and cybersecurity efforts for the project, and have produced a resilience framework to evaluate system resilience based on individual system specifications. In order to make this framework easy for anyone to apply, I have coded a web application that allows users to input their power system qualities, goals, and perceived risks and then receive suggestions on how to improve their grid resiliency. The web application follows the seven steps in the planning stage of the framework process, allowing the user to input information about their grid and select from common goals, metrics, and hazards, as well as add their own. The application currently provides information about how to complete each step, requiring minimal prior knowledge of the framework. Future work for this application will include allowing the user to submit line drawings of their system and incorporate modeling tools so that the hazard simulations of applying the framework is completed for the user.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NREL is Delivering Integrated Solutions for an Affordable and Secure Energy Future

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is the U.S. Department of Energy's primary national laboratory for energy systems research and development. As the energy systems laboratory, NREL's unique strength lies in developing and integrating a broad array of energy technologies into robust, resilient systems - bridging foundational research with practical applications to lower energy costs, drive economic growth, bolster national security, and deliver abundant and reliable energy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Applicative architectures for fault-tolerant multiprocessors

Functional programming frameworks for the design of highly reliable multiprocessor systems are proposed. In contrast to imperative programming environments, a functional environment offers elegant, relatively simple, and efficient solutions to concurrent error detection and recovery problems in multiprocessors. Specific fault tolerance mechanisms for upset exposure, fault containment, secure task assignment, and recovery are developed for a class of applicative multiprocessor architectures. Verification of abstract behavioral characteristics of applicative tasks is used for exposing faults during the execution of tasks. The fault containment mechanism is based on isolation of stack and heap segments of tasks. A protocol for secure task assignment is defined between system components. The architecture permits incremental, distributed, and asynchronous backups of system state. Finally, recovery is accomplished, even in the worst cases, by re-execution of a small number of tasks.

Sharma, Madhumitra↗

Genesis Mission-Enabled Secure AI to Fortify Energy Process Safety (Genesis-SAFE)

Argonne National Laboratory is supporting the U.S. Department of Transportation’s (USDOT’s) Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) with collaborative research on development and application of privacy preserving AI frameworks that leverage unmatched AI expertise and secure computing resources made available through the U.S. Genesis Mission1 . This research advances U.S. energy security goals by supporting a safe offshore energy industry with secure, domain-specific AI tools to analyze confidential industry datasets collected by BTS to rapidly improve identification of hazards, precursors, and systemic safety risks in high-risk operational environments. The staged, security-first approach begins with development and testing of Argonne’s Genesis Mission-enabled Secure AI to Fortify Energy Process Safety (Genesis-SAFE) framework within Argonne’s accredited secure computing enclave (ABLE) leveraging Argonne’s AI scientific assistant substrate (AISAC). Methods to build synthetic datasets were developed together with BTS for use in preparing synthetic datasets that can be used to validate data containment, governance, and security controls in the ABLE environment. Future research directions would focus on applying the Genesis-SAFE framework to CIPSEA-protected datasets entirely within ABLE to support confidentiality-preserving analysis of safety risks, trends, and contributing factors.

Kim, Hyekyung [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), ↗

Nuclear Interdiction Through Relocatable Detectors

The NNSA Office of Nuclear Smuggling Detection and Deterrence (NSDD) has investigated a set of minimal-infrastructure radiation detection systems as alternatives to fixed Radiation Portal Monitors (RPMs) for nuclear interdiction applications. These versatile and relocatable systems can improve nuclear security in missions or locations that do not warrant or support a standard fixed radiation detection system. Over 2019, a variety of relocatable detectors were characterized at the Interdiction Technologies Integration Laboratory at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). Evaluated detectors were diverse in their size and capabilities, ranging from backpack-sized systems to lane-spanning cargo scanning portals. Both spectroscopic and non-spectroscopic pedestrian and vehicle detection systems were characterized against uranium and plutonium sources. Signatures from the sources were modulated by both shielding and distance to quantify the performance of the relocatable systems as signal strength was decreased. Findings showed that relocatable spectroscopic detectors with isotope identification capabilities could reduce nuisance alarm rates compared to conventional fixed installation, gross-counting, radiation portal monitors. In vehicle scanning applications, detection ability generally trended with detection volume, regardless of spectral capability. In pedestrian scanning applications, several smaller backpack-sized detector systems were found to be more sensitive to detecting material than pedestrian portal monitors. The results of this characterization effort have helped inform the deployment of versatile equipment to improve nuclear security missions.

relocatable detectors, Nuclear Security↗

Applicative architectures for fault-tolerant multiprocessors

This paper proposes functional programming frameworks for the design of highly reliable multiprocessor systems. In contrast to imperative programming environments, a functional environment offers elegant, relatively simple, and efficient solutions to concurrent error detection and recovery problems in multiprocessors. Specific fault tolerance mechanisms for upset exposure, fault containment, secure task assignment, and recovery are developed for a class of applicative multiprocessor architectures. Verification of abstract behavioral characteristics of applicative tasks is used for exposing faults during the execution of tasks. The fault containment mechanism is based on isolation of stack and heap segments of tasks. A protocol for secure task assignment is defined between system components. The architecture permits incremental, distributed, and asynchronous backups of system state. Finally, recovery is accomplished, even in the worst cases, by reexecution of a small number of tasks.

Sharma, Madhumitra↗