Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Scenario planning”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 505 records · Page 28

Enabling a Sustainable Future: Zero-Emission Vehicles Cost Analysis to Inform Decarbonization Pathways

Despite being only 5% of vehicles on the road, medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs) are the second largest contributor to transportation emissions (21%) and a major source of local air pollution disproportionally affecting disadvantaged communities. This talk summarizes a cost analysis for zero emissions vehicles (battery electric EVs and hydrogen fuel cell FCEVs) for all medium and heavy duty applications, ranging from large pick-up trucks, to delivery vans, buses, and heavy trucks. Results show that with continued improvements in vehicle and fuel technologies (in line with U.S. Department of Energy targets and vetted with industry), zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) can reach total-cost-of-driving parity with conventional diesel vehicles by 2035 for all medium- and heavy-duty (MD/HD) vehicle classes without incentives. Assuming economics drives adoption, ZEV sales could reach 42% of all MD/HD trucks by 2030, reflecting lower combined vehicle purchase and operating costs (using real-world payback periods). Two technological solutions - battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) - are viable in multiple market segments, offering alternative pathways for decarbonization: a) BEVs tend to become cost-competitive for smaller trucks before 2030 and for short-haul (<500-mile) heavy trucks before 2035. b) Hydrogen FCEVs tend to become cost-competitive for long-haul (>500-mile) heavy trucks by 2035. Results are very sensitive to technology improvement trajectories, adoption decision-making, and uncertain assumptions about future freight demand, logistics, and vehicle use explored in multiple scenarios.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

An Analysis Framework for Distribution Network DER Integration Analysis in India: Distributed Solar in Tamil Nadu

This report is part of a two-part series that represents a year-long collaboration with the Tamil Nadu Generation and Distribution Corporation Limited (TANGEDCO) on power sector planning. The first report in this series, the Pathways for Tamil Nadu’s Electric Power Sector 2017-2030 report outlines NREL’s work with TANGEDCO's electricity sector planning department to develop a model of the State’s power system and evaluate multiple scenarios of system growth given resource constraints, costs of technologies, and power sector policies. This second report in this series focuses on the rapidly transforming distribution network in the State. The report outlines a framework developed by NREL with TANGEDCO's distribution utility to quickly and accurately analyze the impacts of integrating renewable energy, specifically rooftop solar PV onto Tamil Nadu's distribution system. Together these studies help to prepare Tamil Nadu for a rapidly transforming power system.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Acoustic-based monitoring and machine learning of component status for microreactor applications

This report provides a description and assessment of recent efforts to couple acoustic-based experimental measurements and characterization with machine learning models in order to enhance structural health monitoring capabilities for nuclear microreactors. With resilient embedded sensors in development by others supported by programs funded by the US Department of Energy’s Office of Nuclear Energy, the work described herein builds upon ongoing efforts to improve non-destructive testing technology that relates measured acoustic signatures to component stresses and/or structural defects, using a combination of new experimental measurements and machine learning architectures. The experimental procedure remained similar to that developed for the previous year’s demonstration of damage detection by the authors, with the same damaged sample tested under similar applied stress conditions. Notably, a new mounting fixture was designed and implemented to improve measurement consistency and a more sophisticated laser Doppler vibrometer was employed to make high-fidelity vibration measurements. Two nominally identical sets of training data were collected for each experimental setup to better understand the repeatability of the experiment and to better test the generality of trained neural network models. Additionally, we obtained new high-quality 3D mode shapes of the damaged test article at various stress and excitation levels, providing greater insights into the physical response of the sample during testing. Previously, we demonstrated that a machine learning model based on a convolutional neural network can predict structural details of an artificially introduced interface (intact, rough cut, smooth cut), and the applied torque level. In this study, we have transitioned to graph-based neural network architectures to better develop and test a flexible framework that is more suitable to being transferred away from controlled benchtop experiments and into more applied settings where less-structured data inputs may be expected. In general, performance testing of a graph neural network on frequency-domain representations of the data indicates strong and consistent identification of test conditions for datasets recorded on damaged components. With goals of predicting damage location and other changing experimental conditions using limited datasets, predictive models using a graph neural network architecture correctly predicted the applied torque level with an accuracy of 85% using only a single measurement point and predicted within one torque level in 95% of test windows. Predictions of damage location had limited success due to the symmetry and minimal number of the damage scenarios presented during model training. Results were ambiguous as to whether the model could detect the location of the artificial damage, or if it was instead learning the location of a given measurement point on the part and subsequently detecting which points were closest to the location of the damage. This finding will be factored into upcoming planned work on damaged graphite components, where new experimental tests with a larger number and variety of damage scenarios are expected to provide improved validation of recent developments in monitoring methodology.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Best Practices in Electricity Load Modeling and Forecasting for Long-Term Power System Planning

This report highlights best practices for enhanced load modeling and forecasting for long-term power sector planning. The best practices touch on stakeholder engagement, data acquisition and management, modeling and validation, and scenario development. Case studies are provided to highlight crosscutting lessons that could inform enhanced load modeling and forecasting across different country settings. Though this work presents best practices resulting from support to the PDOE, the list is by no means exhaustive—nor is it meant to be prescriptive.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Integrating Planning, Diagnosis and Execution for Vehicle Systems Management

We describe a prototype Vehicle System Manager (VSM) for NASA’s Gateway, a human-capable spacecraft that will also be capable of autonomous operations. The VSM consists of an execution system, planner, and fault management system, integrated via an over-arching mission management compo- nent. We describe the VSM architecture and each of its com- ponents. We describe a series of use cases, centered on a spacecraft propulsive operation that can fail at different times, for different reasons, and how the VSM detects and responds to these failures. We show the VSM is capable of detecting faults and loss of capability, and subsequently replanning, in the presence of each failure scenario.

Planning↗

First entry operations for spacecraft

First entry procedures implemented in the industrial setting are considered to identify those applicable to the situation on the SSF. Particular attention is given to consequences when these procedures are not followed. Operational scenarios for nominal first entry procedures intended to verify air quality before the crew enters the module are outlined. Components of the Environmental Health System will provide necessary monitoring capability to protect crew health and safety during the planned first entry procedures of the man-tended capability phase of the SSF program. It is apparent that first-entry scenarios have drawn heavily upon industry experience, tempered with the specific characteristics of the space flight environment.

Wilson, Steven↗

Thermal simulation of the HSR arc BPM Module for EIC

The Electron Ion Collider (EIC) Hadron Storage Ring (HSR) will reuse most of the existing superconducting magnets from the RHIC storage ring. However, the existing stripline beam position monitors (BPM) used for RHIC will not be compatible with the planned EIC hadron beam parameters that include higher intensity, shorter bunches, and some operational scenarios with large radial offsets of the beam in the vacuum chamber. To address these challenges, the existing RHIC stripline BPMs will be shielded, and a new BPM design using button pick-ups and integrated in a new vacuum interconnect/bellows assembly that will be installed adjacent to the existing BPMs. A thermal analysis of the new arc BPM housing and button pick-up design has been conducted to assess the effects caused by beam induced resistive wall heating and signal propagation through the button pick-up cables for several operational scenarios. This report will describe the analysis results to quantify the heat transfer and temperature distribution that can be expected on the new HSR cryogenic arc BPM housings, button pick-ups, and cryo-signal cables.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

The Lidar In-Space Technology Experiment (LITE)

A spaceborne lidar system is presently being constructed for flight aboard the U. S. Space Shuttle in early 1991. The experiment, Lidar In Space Technology Experiment (LITE), utilizes a neodymium:YAG laser and 0.85 meter effective diameter Cassegranian-configured telescope receiver for making elastic backscatter measurements. The laser will be frequency doubled and tripled simulataneously producing a 10 Hz rate of 200 mJ at 1064 nm, 400 mJ at 532 nm, and 150 mJ at 355 nm. The technological objectives of LITE are to evaluate lidar system operations in space, lidar techniques in space, and to provide a test bed for new lidar technologies in later flights. The measurement objectives include the determination of cloud top and planetary boundary layer heights, the measurement of tropospheric and stratospheric aerosols, and the measurement of temperature and density between 10 to 40 km altitude. Detailed simulations will be presented showing the errors associated with each of these measurement objectives. In addition, the experiment scenario will be described including measurement times, data flow, processing and archival, and initial plans for validation of the LITE data set with correlative measurements.

Mccormick, M. P.↗

Integrating planning and reaction: A preliminary report

The Entropy Reduction Engine architecture for integrating planning, scheduling, and control is examined. The architecture is motivated through a NASA mission scenario and a brief list of design goals. An overview is presented of the Entropy Reduction Engine architecture by describing its major components, their interactions, and the way in which these interacting components satisfy the design goals.

Bresina, John L.↗

Lab Development for INS/GPS Testing of Launch and Space Vehicles

NASA Marshall Space Flight Center's experience with different GPS simulators and receivers over the last 10 years has shown a need for testing the receivers in more than just a nominal mission. The Spaceliner 100 program is researching blended INS/GPS data tuned specifically for launch vehicles and orbital deployments. The paper will discuss layout of the testing lab, the test equipment, test scenarios that all receivers will be evaluated under, and a discussion of receiver types planned to test. It will conclude with a discussion of some of the current tests and goals of future testing.

Schrock, Ken↗

An Autonomous Control System for an Intra-Vehicular Spacecraft Mobile Monitor Prototype

This paper presents an overview of an ongoing research and development effort at the NASA Ames Research Center to create an autonomous control system for an internal spacecraft autonomous mobile monitor. It primary functions are to provide crew support and perform intra- vehicular sensing activities by autonomously navigating onboard the International Space Station. We describe the mission roles and high-level functional requirements for an autonomous mobile monitor. The mobile monitor prototypes, of which two are operational and one is actively being designed, physical test facilities used to perform ground testing, including a 3D micro-gravity test facility, and simulators are briefly described. We provide an overview of the autonomy framework and describe each of its components, including those used for automated planning, goal-oriented task execution, diagnosis, and fault recovery. A sample mission test scenario is also described.

Dorais, Gregory A.↗

Implications of Contingency Planning Support for Weather and Icing Information

A human-centered systems analysis was applied to the adverse aircraft weather encounter problem in order to identify desirable functions of weather and icing information. The importance of contingency planning was identified as emerging from a system safety design methodology as well as from results of other aviation decision-making studies. The relationship between contingency planning support and information on regions clear of adverse weather was investigated in a scenario- based analysis. A rapid prototype example of the key elements in the depiction of icing conditions was developed in a case study, and the implications for the components of the icing information system were articulated.

Vigeant-Langlois, Laurence↗

Haughton-Mars Project/NASA 2006 Lunar Medical Contingency Simulation: Equipment and Methods for Medical Evacuation of an Injured Crewmember

Introduction: Achieving NASA's Space Exploration Vision scientific objectives will require human access into cratered and uneven terrain for the purpose of sample acquisition to assess geological, and perhaps even biological features and experiments. Operational risk management is critical to safely conduct the anticipated tasks. This strategy, along with associated contingency plans, will be a driver of EVA system requirements. Therefore, a medical contingency EVA scenario was performed with the Haughton-Mars Project/NASA to develop belay and medical evacuation techniques for exploration and rescue respectively. Methods: A rescue system to allow two rescuer astronauts to evacuate one in incapacitated astronaut was evaluated. The systems main components were a hard-bottomed rescue litter, hand-operated winch, rope, ground picket anchors, and a rover-winch attachment adapter. Evaluation was performed on 15-25deg slopes of dirt with embedded rock. The winch was anchored either by adapter to the rover or by pickets hammered into the ground. The litter was pulled over the surface by rope attached to the winch. Results: The rescue system was utilized effectively to extract the injured astronaut up a slope and to a waiting rover for transport to a simulated habitat for advanced medical care, although several challenges to implementation were identified and overcome. Rotational stabilization of the winch was found to be important to get maximize mechanical advantage from the extraction system. Discussion: Further research and testing needs to be performed to be able to fully consider synergies with the other Exploration surface systems, in conducting contingency operations. Structural attachment points on the surface EVA suits may be critical to assist in incapacitated evacuation. Such attach points could be helpful in microgravity incapacitated crewmember transport as well. Wheeled utility carts or wheels that may be attachable to a litter may also aid in extraction and transport. Utilizing parts of the rover (e.g. seats) to deploy as a litter may be considered. Testing in simulated 1/6-g to determine feasibility of winch operation and anchor establishment will further reduce implementation uncertainties.

Chappell, S. P.↗

Estimating the Need for Medical Intervention due to Sleep Disruption on the International Space Station

During ISS and shuttle missions, difficulties with sleep affect more than half of all US crews. Mitigation strategies to help astronauts cope with the challenges of disrupted sleep patterns can negatively impact both mission planning and vehicle design. The methods for addressing known detrimental impacts for some mission scenarios may have a substantial impact on vehicle specific consumable mass or volume or on the mission timeline. As part of the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) task, NASA Glenn Research Center is leading the development of a Monte Carlo based forecasting tool designed to determine the consumables required to address risks related to sleep disruption. The model currently focuses on the International Space Station and uses an algorithm that assembles representative mission schedules and feeds this into a well validated model that predicts relative levels of performance, and need for sleep (SAFTE Model, IBR Inc). Correlation of the resulting output to self-diagnosed needs for hypnotics, stimulants, and other pharmaceutical countermeasures, allows prediction of pharmaceutical use and the uncertainty of the specified prediction. This paper outlines a conceptual model for determining a rate of pharmaceutical utilization that can be used in the IMM model for comparison and optimization of mitigation methods with respect to all other significant medical needs and interventions.

Myers, Jerry G.↗

A Dynamic Model for the Evaluation of Aircraft Engine Icing Detection and Control-Based Mitigation Strategies

Aircraft flying in regions of high ice crystal concentrations are susceptible to the buildup of ice within the compression system of their gas turbine engines. This ice buildup can restrict engine airflow and cause an uncommanded loss of thrust, also known as engine rollback, which poses a potential safety hazard. The aviation community is conducting research to understand this phenomena, and to identify avoidance and mitigation strategies to address the concern. To support this research, a dynamic turbofan engine model has been created to enable the development and evaluation of engine icing detection and control-based mitigation strategies. This model captures the dynamic engine response due to high ice water ingestion and the buildup of ice blockage in the engines low pressure compressor. It includes a fuel control system allowing engine closed-loop control effects during engine icing events to be emulated. The model also includes bleed air valve and horsepower extraction actuators that, when modulated, change overall engine operating performance. This system-level model has been developed and compared against test data acquired from an aircraft turbofan engine undergoing engine icing studies in an altitude test facility and also against outputs from the manufacturers customer deck. This paper will describe the model and show results of its dynamic response under open-loop and closed-loop control operating scenarios in the presence of ice blockage buildup compared against engine test cell data. Planned follow-on use of the model for the development and evaluation of icing detection and control-based mitigation strategies will also be discussed. The intent is to combine the model and control mitigation logic with an engine icing risk calculation tool capable of predicting the risk of engine icing based on current operating conditions. Upon detection of an operating region of risk for engine icing events, the control mitigation logic will seek to change the engines operating point to a region of lower risk through the modulation of available control actuators while maintaining the desired engine thrust output. Follow-on work will assess the feasibility and effectiveness of such control-based mitigation strategies.

engine control↗

A Dynamic Model for the Evaluation of Aircraft Engine Icing Detection and Control-Based Mitigation Strategies

Aircraft flying in regions of high ice crystal concentrations are susceptible to the buildup of ice within the compression system of their gas turbine engines. This ice buildup can restrict engine airflow and cause an uncommanded loss of thrust, also known as engine rollback, which poses a potential safety hazard. The aviation community is conducting research to understand this phenomena, and to identify avoidance and mitigation strategies to address the concern. To support this research, a dynamic turbofan engine model has been created to enable the development and evaluation of engine icing detection and control-based mitigation strategies. This model captures the dynamic engine response due to high ice water ingestion and the buildup of ice blockage in the engines low pressure compressor. It includes a fuel control system allowing engine closed-loop control effects during engine icing events to be emulated. The model also includes bleed air valve and horsepower extraction actuators that, when modulated, change overall engine operating performance. This system-level model has been developed and compared against test data acquired from an aircraft turbofan engine undergoing engine icing studies in an altitude test facility and also against outputs from the manufacturers customer deck. This paper will describe the model and show results of its dynamic response under open-loop and closed-loop control operating scenarios in the presence of ice blockage buildup compared against engine test cell data. Planned follow-on use of the model for the development and evaluation of icing detection and control-based mitigation strategies will also be discussed. The intent is to combine the model and control mitigation logic with an engine icing risk calculation tool capable of predicting the risk of engine icing based on current operating conditions. Upon detection of an operating region of risk for engine icing events, the control mitigation logic will seek to change the engines operating point to a region of lower risk through the modulation of available control actuators while maintaining the desired engine thrust output. Follow-on work will assess the feasibility and effectiveness of such control-based mitigation strategies.

engine control↗

Sea-Level Rise: Projections for Maryland 2018

In fulfillment of requirements of the Maryland Commission on Climate Change Act of 2015, this report provides updated projections of the amount of sea-level rise relative to Maryland coastal lands that is expected into the next century. These projections represent the consensus of an Expert Group drawn from the Mid-Atlantic region. The framework for these projections is explicitly tied to the projections of global sea-level rise included in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment (2014) and incorporates regional factors such as subsidence, distance from melting glaciers and polar ice sheets, and ocean currents. The probability distribution of estimates of relative sea-level rise from the baseline year of 2000 are provided over time and, after 2050, for three different greenhouse gas emissions pathways: Growing Emissions (RCP8.5), Stabilized Emissions (RCP4.5), and meeting the Paris Agreement (RCP2.6). This framework has been recently used in developing relative sea-level rise projections for California, Oregon, Washington, New Jersey, and Delaware as well as several metropolitan areas. The Likely range (66% probability) of the relative rise of mean sea level expected in Maryland between 2000 and 2050 is 0.8 to 1.6 feet, with about a one-in-twenty chance it could exceed 2.0 feet and about a one-in-one hundred chance it could exceed 2.3 feet. Later this century, rates of sea-level rise increasingly depend on the future pathway of global emissions of greenhouse gases during the next sixty years. If emissions continue to grow well into the second half of the 21st century, the Likely range of sea-level rise experienced in Maryland is 2.0 to 4.2 feet over this century, two to four times the sea-level rise experienced during the 20th century. Moreover, there is a one-in-twenty chance that it could exceed 5.2 feet. If, on the other hand, global society were able to bring net greenhouse gas emissions to zero in time to meet the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement and reduce emissions sufficient to limit the increase in global mean temperature to less than 2°Celsius over pre-industrial levels, the Likely range for 2100 is 1.2 to 3.0 feet, with a one-in-twenty chance that it would exceed 3.7 feet. The difference in sea-level rise between these contrasting scenarios would diverge even more during the next century, with the failure to reduce emissions in the near term resulting in much greater sea-level rise 100 years from now. Moreover, recent research suggests that, without imminent and substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, the loss of polar ice sheets-and thus the rate of sea-level rise-may be more rapid than assumed in these projections, particularly under the Growing Emissions scenario. These probabilistic sea-level rise projections can and should be used in planning and regulation, infrastructure siting and design, estimation of changes in tidal range and storm surge, developing inundation mapping tools, and adaptation strategies for high-tide flooding and saltwater intrusion.

Boesch, D. F.↗

Regarding Pilot Usage of Display Technologies for Improving Awareness of Aircraft System States

ed systems and the procedures for ng in complexity. This interacting trend places a larger burden on pilots to manage increasing amounts of information and to understand system interactions. The result is an increase in the likelihood of loss of airplane state awareness (ASA). One way to gain more insight into this issue is through experimentation using objective measures of visual behavior. This study summarizes an analysis of oculometer data obtained during a high-fidelity flight simulation study that included a variety of complex pilot-system interactions that occur in current flight decks, as well as several planned for the next generation air transportation system. The study was comprised of various scenarios designed to induce low and high energy aircraft states coupled with other emulated causal factors in recent accidents. Three different display technologies were evaluated in this recent pilot-in-the-loop study conducted at NASA Langley Research Center. These technologies include a stall recovery guidance algorithm and display concept, an enhanced airspeed control indication of when the automation is no longer actively controlling airspeed, and enhanced synoptic diagrams with corresponding simplified electronic interactive checklists. Multiple data analyses were performed to understand how the 26 participating airline pilots were observing ASA-related information provided during different stag specific events within these stages.

Daniels, Taumi S.↗