SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Risk Informed Decision Making”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 505 records · Page 28

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Clinical Decision Support Project

As NASA plans for exploration missions into deep space, significant challenges are realized due to the distance from Earth. Beside the effects of microgravity and radiation exposure, the astronauts face the additional constraints of isolation, lack of resupply, increasingly difficult evacuation, and delayed and disrupted communication with ground-based medical care providers. These constraints require a paradigm shift from current medical care where crews rely on the real-time communications with ground-based medical care providers toward Earth-independent medical operations for astronaut medical care. Medical expertise and decision-making are ground-based for current International Space Station and planned Lunar missions. However, a deep space exploration crew will need to autonomously perform the detection, diagnosis, treatment, and prevention of medical conditions. One approach to provide Earth-independent medical operations is to augment the requisite knowledge, skills, and abilities (KSAs) of a time-constrained crew—operating under stressful conditions, combatting fatigue, and facing a potential medical crisis—with a robust clinical decision support system (CDSS). The CDSS is envisioned as an integrated, software-based tool deployed on a laptop computer or handheld device. The CDSS will assist the crew and ground support when interacting with knowledge/data bases (e.g. records, pharmacy, schedule), instrumentation (e.g. imaging, physiological monitoring devices), and habitat (e.g. wellness system, task performance system) and vehicle systems (e.g. environmental system, communication system). In addition, the human interface will employ a context-based approach that accounts for the crew’s situation. Thus, extraneous and clinically/operationally non-relevant information are reduced to avoid an increase in cognitive load. The framework of an ideal spaceflight CDSS is to include core and advanced analytical features that maintain a flexible platform for integrating new technology in the future. The Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element of the Human Research Program (HRP) is expanding the boundaries of space medical systems to advance the care of astronauts on future exploration missions beyond low Earth orbit by actively identifying and testing next-generation medical care and crew health maintenance technologies. The Clinical Decision Support (CDS) project addressed ap Medical-701 within the Inflight Medical Conditions risk: “We need to increase inflight medical capabilities and identify new capabilities that (a) maximize benefit and/or (b) reduce “costs” on human system/mission/vehicle resources.” Though mass, volume, and power will face increasing constraints, the projected computational capabilities of spacecraft systems will increase exponentially as information technology advances in this decade and beyond. Hence, data, software, and computational resources will play an essential and synergistic role in maintaining crew health, wellness, and performance in deep space missions. The focus of the CDS project was to develop recommended requirements for an in-vehicle CDSS that acts as a ‘virtual assistant’ for delivering optimal health, performance, and medical care during exploration missions. In fiscal year 2022 (FY22), the CDS project was chartered to baseline and/or revise all CDS project related documentation and update the CDS project model to include the revised CDSS Concept of Operations, revised systems-based modeling language (SysML) activity diagrams, and baseline requirements. The focus of this presentation will be an overview of the CDS products and CDS model content.

Decision Support↗

NASA NTRS2017

Using Information from Rendezvous Missions for Best-Case Appraisals of Impact Damage to Planet Earth Caused by Natural Objects

The Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP), a part of NASAs Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO) has the responsibility to appraise the range of surface damage by potential asteroid impacts on land or water. If a threat is realized, the project will provide appraisals to officials empowered to make decisions about potential mitigation actions. This paper describes a scenario for assessment of surface damage when characterization of an asteroid had been accomplished by a rendezvous mission that would be conducted by the international planetary defense community. It is shown that the combination of data from ground and in-situ measurements on an asteroid provides knowledge that can be used to pin-point its impact location and predict the level of devastation it would cause. The hypothetical asteroid 2017 PDC with a size range of 160 to 290 m in diameter to be discussed at the PDC 2017 is used as an example. In order of importance for appraising potential damage, information required is: (1) where will the surface impact occur? (2) what is the mass, shape and size of the asteroid and what is its entry state (speed and entry angle) at the 100 km atmospheric pierce point? And (3) is the asteroid a monolith or a rubble pile? If it is a rubble pile, what is its structure and heterogeneity from the surface and throughout its interior? Item (1) is of first order importance to determine levels of devastation (loss of life and infrastructure damage) because it varies strongly on the impact location. Items (2) and (3) are used as inputs for ATAPs simulations to define the level of surface hazards: winds, overpressure, thermal exposure; all created by the deposition of energy during the objects atmospheric flight, andor cratering. Topics presented in this paper include: (i) the devastation predicted by 2017 PDCs impact on land based on initial observations using ATAPs risk assessment capability, (ii) how information corresponding to items (1) to (3) could be obtained from a rendezvous mission, and (iii) how information from a rendezvous mission could be used, along with that from ground observations and data from the literature to provide input for a new risk analysis capability that is emerging from ATAPs research. It is concluded that this approach would result in the creation of an appraisal of the threat from 2017 PDC with the least uncertainty possible, herein called the best-case.

Asteroid Impact Appraisals↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hydrodynamic Test Requirements Process Improvements

Hydrodynamic testing at Los Alamos National Laboratory would benefit from a process improvement for the requirements process. Cameo was used as a digital solution for requirements management to allow Lead Engineers to track requirements more effectively. This was identified as a process improvement throughout this Capstone project. This report includes a project proposal, business case, literature review, methodology, project plan, data analysis, decision-making report, financial analysis report, discussion, and conclusion. Initially, this project focused on figuring out a solution for the hydrotest requirement process improvements. The scope narrowed to focus on the use of Cameo for requirement capture and management. During this Capstone, four tests had digital models produced for requirements management in Cameo. The initial model was the baseline, with core requirements used across the tests. Commonalities in tests were used and the core requirements allowed for process efficiencies. In the data analysis, it was seen that overall, the implementation of using Cameo for requirements resulted in a decreasing trend for both schedule and normalized cost. Tests have different complexity levels which is also a factor in how long the requirements process will take. Additional data is needed to continue analyzing process improvements. Through decisionmaking and financial analysis, the recommendation was to use Cameo for requirements process improvement. Multiple experts provided feedback for requirements that were then captured within models. Numerous tangible and intangible benefits were identified with this process improvement. For return on investment, the metric of success was schedule reduction, which was overall seen. Four tests were analyzed, so future analysis will be needed. There is also not a great financial risk because the main cost would be purchasing more licenses. Individuals must generate requirements whether using this software or not. Overall, training is needed to help improve the skillsets of Lead Engineers but is already being supported on a regular frequency. A desktop guide was started associated with explaining the process, however, it is a work in progress. The team plans on adding additional information in the digital models to help status when requirements are met using verification methods and artifacts. From working on this project an improved understanding of Cameo and requirements was the result. There are future opportunities to extend the usage for requirements management and progress will continue after this project.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Content and Representation of Information Needed to Support Time-Constrained Problem Solving

NASA’s current mission-operations paradigm originated with Project Mercury and endured with minimum evolution through the Apollo Program, Space Shuttle Program, and ISS missions. At its foundation is a near-complete real-time dependence on a ground team to manage the combined state of the mission, vehicle, and crew. Utilizing many engineers and operators with broad and deep expertise; large, distributed datasets including extensive telemetry; and expansive analytical and computing power, this ground team has served as the safety net for crewed spaceflight missions over the past 60 years. This approach must change to address challenges associated with missions beyond low Earth orbit (BLEO), including infrequent resupply, reduced ability to evacuate, and delayed communications that prohibit real-time operational support. We anticipate that a necessary part of this change will be increased independence for the crew, as roles and responsibilities traditionally performed by ground teams move on board the vehicle. While many risks are associated with Earth-independent operations, one particular concern is ensuring that the crew will have adequate onboard support to perform urgent problem solving when communication with the ground is delayed or intermittent. A key resource that enables the ground team to respond to anomalies quickly and effectively is the extraordinary expertise and experience it possesses. It is comprised of 80+ experts on at any given time, with a combined 600+ years of system-specific experience across 22 unique console disciplines. A small crew will face the unprecedented challenge of independently responding to anomalies that have historically been handled by a team 20 times their size. Another important resource upon which the ground heavily relies to support procedure execution and anomaly response is data. The amount of telemetry data that each flight controller monitors is extensive. In addition, as the ground team works to further assess impacts, trouble shoot, identify workarounds, and oversee procedure execution, it accesses and synthesizes engineering and procedure information, as well as system build, test, and configuration documentation. It is not feasible nor useful to put all these data onboard as crews become more Earth independent. Each member of a small Mars mission small crew will have multiple roles beyond monitoring telemetry and data gathering, and multiple roles within anomaly resolution processes, thereby limiting their capacity for copious amounts of information. Moreover, while access is necessary, it alone is insufficient. Information will need to be compiled, refined, and represented appropriately to support the crew’s reduced attention and expertise. This work seeks to understand the content and representation of information needed to support time-constrained problem solving and decision making by the crew without real-time ground support. To build this understanding, we first surveyed the literature, focusing on how expert problem solvers construct and manipulate their mental models. Next, we interviewed expert problem solvers in spaceflight and analogous domains and surveyed industry solutions for data presentation. Finally, we analyzed current spaceflight operations by investigating flight controller anomaly resolution processes during ISS training simulations and real operational events. These methods led to creating a problem-solving framework that details common themes and features of attending to, assessing, analyzing, and acting on problems in complex, time-constrained domains. Using this framework and the results of our analysis, we identified conceptual data representations needed for crew-led problem-solving. Preliminary onboard user interface concepts to meet identified needs will be presented.

anomaly response↗

DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying Turbine-Level Risk to Golden Eagles Using a High-Fidelity Updraft Model and a Stochastic Behavioral Model

To minimize the effects of wind farms on Golden Eagle (Aquila chrysaetos) populations while enabling sustainable development of renewable energy resources, it is important to understand how eagles interact with atmospheric flows, terrain features, and anthropogenic structures. Models that predict migratory flight paths provide one tool that helps us grasp how the location of wind farms may influence interactions and impacts on migrating Golden Eagles. The current state-of-the-art in predicting migratory flight paths uses a deterministic fluid-flow analogy to predict eagle trajectory using only an orographic updraft potential computed from topographical features. This model does not take into account variables, such as thermal updrafts and time varying atmospheric conditions that are known to influence migratory behavior. In this work, we improve on the model with the objective of developing tools that advance our understanding of how atmospheric flows and terrain features affect migratory eagle behavior and their interactions with wind farms. Specifically, we 1) incorporate both orographic and thermal updraft information in simulating eagle flight paths; 2) incorporate stochasticity into eagle travel patterns to better capture the influence of exogenous factors on, and the inherent stochasticity of eagle behavior; 3) consider spatio-temporal atmospheric data at wind-farm-scale when computing updraft potential; and 4) account for how atmospheric conditions and the direction of migration change seasonally and how these changes affect eagle migratory flight behavior. We tested the model using a 50km by 50km region with 50 m resolution in the western United States. We simulated 900 independent, probabilistic eagle tracks during southerly and northerly migration, assuming eagles solely rely on orographic updrafts. The preliminary results indicate that the inclusion of finer resolution atmospheric data allows for the inclusion of realistic conditions that an eagle experiences. The stochasticity in eagle tracks provides a platform to include uncertainty in eagle decision making and help produce robust eagle presence maps. We will deploy updraft and downdraft velocities computed using a high-fidelity, wind farm scale, computational fluid dynamics solver under development at National Renewable Energy Laboratory. This work is a first step in the development of a predictive and generalizable eagle behavior model at the wind farm scale that does not rely on empirical data collection. Although the current model is intended for migratory eagles, we will extend and refine this model to inform the development of additional behavioral modes, including resident eagle behavior. This modeling approach improves our ability to understand eagle use of the landscape at a fine scale, and it is our hope that this work will ultimately help advance strategies that minimize the impact of wind development on Golden Eagle populations.

49 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Wind (EE-4W↗

NASA NTRS2013

Model Verification and Validation Concepts for a Probabilistic Fracture Assessment Model to Predict Cracking of Knife Edge Seals in the Space Shuttle Main Engine High Pressure Oxidizer

Physics-based models are routinely used to predict the performance of engineered systems to make decisions such as when to retire system components, how to extend the life of an aging system, or if a new design will be safe or available. Model verification and validation (V&V) is a process to establish credibility in model predictions. Ideally, carefully controlled validation experiments will be designed and performed to validate models or submodels. In reality, time and cost constraints limit experiments and even model development. This paper describes elements of model V&V during the development and application of a probabilistic fracture assessment model to predict cracking in space shuttle main engine high-pressure oxidizer turbopump knife-edge seals. The objective of this effort was to assess the probability of initiating and growing a crack to a specified failure length in specific flight units for different usage and inspection scenarios. The probabilistic fracture assessment model developed in this investigation combined a series of submodels describing the usage, temperature history, flutter tendencies, tooth stresses and numbers of cycles, fatigue cracking, nondestructive inspection, and finally the probability of failure. The analysis accounted for unit-to-unit variations in temperature, flutter limit state, flutter stress magnitude, and fatigue life properties. The investigation focused on the calculation of relative risk rather than absolute risk between the usage scenarios. Verification predictions were first performed for three units with known usage and cracking histories to establish credibility in the model predictions. Then, numerous predictions were performed for an assortment of operating units that had flown recently or that were projected for future flights. Calculations were performed using two NASA-developed software tools: NESSUS(Registered Trademark) for the probabilistic analysis, and NASGRO(Registered Trademark) for the fracture mechanics analysis. The goal of these predictions was to provide additional information to guide decisions on the potential of reusing existing and installed units prior to the new design certification.

Pai, Shantaram S.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Habitability Assessments And Lessons-learned From 3-day And 11-day Enriched Oxygen Hypobaric Chamber Tests At NASA Johnson Space Center

INTRODUCTION: Decompression sickness (DCS) is a risk to the health and performance of astronauts and high-altitude aircrew. Tolerance to flammability, hypoxia, prebreathe duration, and DCS risk varies across different organizations, vehicles, suits, and destinations, necessitating a variety of DCS risk mitigation approaches. Existing models of altitude DCS risk are often insufficient to enable accurate risk-informed decisions during hardware development, mission planning, and flight operations. METHODS: NASA completed outfitting of a dedicated facility at Johnson Space Center to support testing of up to eight human subjects for multiple days in hypobaric and enriched oxygen atmospheres. The primary purpose of the testing capability is validation of DCS risk mitigation protocols for Artemis missions to the Moon; however, it will also support development and validation of a generalizable altitude DCS risk estimation tool. A 3-day and an 11-day prebreathe validation test were completed in 2022, each with 8 human subjects living at 56.5 kPa (8.2 psia), 34% O2, 66% N2, with 5 simulated EVAs performed on masks at 29.6 kPa (4.3 psi), 85% O2, 15% N2. Facility and organizational lessons-learned and process improvements were recorded during and following the tests, and subjective habitability ratings were recorded daily during the 11-day test. Hypoxia and DCS-related physiological and cognitive outcome measures were recorded during both tests and are reported in companion presentations. RESULTS & DISCUSSION: All subjects completed each of the tests. Primary habitability issues related to mask discomfort during simulated EVAs and poor sleep quality due to thin mattresses. Polybenzimidazole (PBI) clothing was worn by all subjects due to the increased fire risk and may be required for Artemis missions; clothing was found to be acceptable overall with the worst ratings being due to poor fit and inelasticity. Chamber O2 and CO2 sensor inconsistency was observed that did not result in test termination but required post-test follow-up. Forward plans include additional hypobaric testing and integration of existing and future physiological outcome data into an open-source Aerospace Estimation Tool for Hypobaric Exposure Risk (AETHER). NASA is also working to make the testing capability available to commercial companies.

Andrew F J Abercromby↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Habitability Assessments And Lessons-learned From 3-day And 11-day Enriched Oxygen Hypobaric Chamber Tests At NASA Johnson Space Center

Andrew Abercromby↗

NASA NTRS2019

Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO) New Observing Strategies (NOS) and NOS-Testbed (NOS-T)

With the advancement of space hardware technologies such as smaller spacecraft, component and instrument miniaturization and high performance space processors, and with the advancement of software technologies in artificial intelligence, big data analysis and autonomous decision making, Earth Science is looking at novel ways to observe phenomena that previously could not have been studied or would have been too expensive to study with traditional missions. In particular, the New Observing Strategies (NOS) component of the NASA Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO) Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) Program aims at leveraging these novel technologies as well as low cost and easy access to space to acquire multi-temporal or simultaneous multi-angular, multi-locations, multi-resolution and multi-spectral observations that will provide better multi-source measurements and will build a more dynamic and comprehensive picture of Earth Science phenomena that need to be studied and analyzed. For applications such as water resources management, air quality monitoring, biodiversity studies or disaster management, NOS will integrate the use of small instruments, small spacecraft, constellations of spacecraft and networks of sensors to design new missions that will provide the necessary measurements to improve future forecast and science modeling systems.Measurement acquisition will therefore be approached as a system of systems rather than on a mission basis, and a system of this complexity should not be expected to work without full integration and experimental characterization. Although most of the individual technologies enabling to link and coordinate multi-source observations are more or less mature, a few technologies need to be developed and all of them need to be integrated and tested as a system. In order for this validation to occur, the AIST Program is developing the NOS Testbed that includes 3 main goals:1.Validate novel NOS technologies, independently and as a system2.Demonstrate novel distributed operations concepts3.Socialize new Distributed Spacecraft Mission (DSM) and SensorWeb (SW) technologies and concepts to the science community by significantly retiring the risk of integrating these new technologies.The NOS Testbed will consist of multiple sensing nodes, simulated or actual, representing space, air and/or ground measurements, that are interconnected by a communications fabric (infrastructure that permits nodes to transmit and receive data between one another and interact with each other). Each node will be supported by hardware capabilities required to perform nodes monitoring and command & control, as well as intelligent "onboard" computing. The nodes will work together in a collaborative manner to demonstrate optimal science capabilities. The testbed will enable to validate technologies such as inter-node communication models, techniques and protocols; inter-node coordination; real-time data fusion and understanding; planning; sensor re-targeting; etc. Additionally, the testbed will have the capability to interact with various mission design tools, OSSEs and one or several forecast models. More details about the NOS Testbed will be presented at the confererence.

Earth Science missions; Advanced information Syste↗

DOE OSTI2021

Integrating static PRA information with risk informed safety margin characterization (RISMC) simulation methods

The overall objective of the project was to develop a computationally feasible and user-friendly mechanized process to integrate traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and dynamic PRA (DPRA) results. Starting with the systematic identification of items in an existing PRA that need dynamic augmentation, the project used a generic 4-loop pressurized reactor (PWR) and 3-loop PWR as example plants. Station blackout (SBO) and large break loss of coolant accident SBLOCA) were selected as the example initiating events. Using the traditional event-tree (ET)/fault-tree (FT) methodology augmented by dynamic evet tree approach, the potential consequences of the initiating events were simulated with RELAP-3D and MELCOR/RASCAL codes to cover Level 1 through Level 3 of PRA. RAVEN and ADAPT software were used to generate Level 1 simulations with RELAP-3D and Level 2/3 simulations with MELCOR (Level 2)/RASCAL (Level 3), respectively. Example branching conditions (BCs) for SBO included AC power recovery time, valve repair failure time, reactor coolant pump leak time/break size and emergency power supply duration to a total of 9. Example BCs for LOCA included off-site power recovery time, diesel generator power recovery time, auxiliary feed water system operation time, safety relief valve failure to open upon demand, reactor coolant pump seal break time and size to a total of 21. Each RELAP-3D simulation (9,587 scenarios) was labelled OK or Core Damage based on the maximum allowed peak clad temperature (2,100oF). Each MELCOR simulation (4610 scenarios) was labeled as Bin over 10rem or Bin 0-10rem based on the dose at the site boundary. The scenarios were clustered based on the criteria above using the mean shift methodology. Classical PRA (CPRA) and DPRA results were compared to identify the ET sequences that need DPRA augmentation. Several approaches were proposed for the incorporation of these sequences into CPRA using clustering with the mean shift methodology, restructuring the CPRA ETs by adding new BCs/sequences, and using the concept of a limit surface. Procedures for decision making regarding the possible consequences of an initiating event (e.g. core damage or not, site evacuation or not) were developed using a convolutional neural network (CNN), a recurrent neural network (RNN) and a transformer neural network (TNN). The project has led to two PhD degrees, three archival journal papers and five refereed conference proceedings.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Advanced Simulation and Computing: ASC FY24 Implementation Plan

The DOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) Stockpile Stewardship Program (SSP) is an integrated technical program for maintaining the safety, security, and reliability of the U.S. nuclear stockpile. The SSP incorporates nuclear test data, computational modeling and simulation, and experimental facilities to advance understanding of nuclear weapons. The suite of data analyzed comes from activities including previous nuclear tests, stockpile surveillance, experimental research, and development and engineering programs. This integrated national program requires the continued use of experimental facilities and the computational capabilities to support the SSP missions. These component parts, in addition to an appropriately scaled production capability, enable NNSA to support stockpile requirements. The ultimate goal of the SSP, and thus of the Advanced Simulation and Computing (ASC) program, is to ensure that the U.S. maintains a safe, secure, and effective strategic deterrent. The ASC program is a cornerstone of the SSP, providing simulation capabilities and computational resources to support the annual stockpile assessment and certification process, study advanced nuclear weapons design and manufacturing processes, analyze accident scenarios and weapons aging, and provide the tools to enable stockpile Life Extension Programs (LEPs) and the resolution of Significant Finding Investigations (SFIs). This work requires a balance of resources, including technical staff, hardware, simulation software, and computer science solutions. The ASC program focuses on increasing the predictive capabilities in a three-dimensional (3D) simulation environment while maintaining support to the SSP. The Program continues to improve its unique tools for understanding and solving progressively more difficult stockpile problems (sufficient resolution, dimensionality, and scientific details), and quantifying critical margins and uncertainties. Resolving each issue requires increasingly difficult analyses because the aging process has progressively moved the stockpile further from the original test base. While the focus remains on the U.S. nuclear weapons program, where possible, the Program also enables the use of high-performance computing (HPC) and simulation tools to address broader national security needs, such as foreign nuclear weapon assessments and nuclear counterterrorism. The 2022 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) calls for NNSA to “deliver a modern, adaptive nuclear security enterprise based on an integrated strategy for risk management, production-based resilience, science and technology innovation, and workforce initiatives.” Furthermore, “NNSA will establish a Science and Technology Innovation Initiative to accelerate the integration of science and technology (S&T) throughout its activities.” Executing this strategy necessitates the continued emphasis on developing and sustaining high-quality scientific and engineering staff, as well as supporting computational and experimental capabilities. These components constitute the foundation of the nuclear weapons program. The continued success of the SSP and LEPs is predicated upon the ability to credibly certify the stockpile, without a return to underground nuclear tests (UGTs). Shortly after the nuclear test moratorium entered into force in 1992, the Accelerated Strategic Computing Initiative (ASCI) was established to provide an extensive simulation capability to underpin stockpile certification. While computing and simulation have always been essential to the success of the nuclear weapons program, the program goal of ASCI was to execute NNSA’s vision of using these tools in support of the stockpile stewardship mission. The ASCI program was essential to the successful demonstration of the SSP, providing critical nuclear weapons simulation and modeling capabilities. ASCI officially evolved into the ASC program in fiscal year (FY) 2005, but the mission remains essentially the same: provide the simulation and computational capabilities that underpin the ability to maintain a safe, secure, effective nuclear weapon stockpile, without returning to underground nuclear testing. The capabilities that the ASC program provides at the national laboratories play a vital role in the nuclear security enterprise and are necessary for fulfilling the stockpile stewardship and life extension requirements outlined for NNSA. The Program develops modern simulation tools that provide insights into stockpile aging issues, provide the computational and simulation tools that enable designers and analysts to certify the current stockpile and life-extended nuclear weapons, and inform the decision-making process when any modifications in nuclear warheads or the associated manufacturing processes are deemed necessary. Furthermore, ASC is enhancing the predictive simulation capabilities that are essential to evaluate weapons effects, design experiments, and ensure test readiness. The ASC program continues to improve its unique tools to solve stockpile problems— with a focus on sufficient resolution, dimensionality, and scientific detail—to enable Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties (QMU) and to resolve the increasingly difficult analyses needed for stockpile stewardship. The needs of the Stockpile Management and Production Modernization programs (formerly Directed Stockpile Work) also drive the requirements for simulation and computational resources. These requirements include planned LEPs, stockpile support activities, and mitigation efforts against the potential for technical surprise. All of the weapons within the current stockpile are in some stage of the life extension process. The simulation and computational capabilities are crucial for successful execution of these life extensions and for ensuring NNSA can certify these life-extended weapons without conducting a UGT.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Oak Ridge National Laboratory Technical Input for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission Review of the 2017 Edition of ASME Section III, Division 5, ‘High Temperature Reactors’

To assist the Nuclear Regulatory Commission in its decision making on endorsement of the American Society for Mechanical Engineers Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code Section III, Division 5 (2017 Edition) for development of advanced non-light water reactors, the following Division 5 portions were reviewed: Article HBB-2000 Material; Article HCB-2000 Material; Article HGB-2000 Material; Mandatory Appendix HBB-I-14 Tables and Figures; and, Nonmandatory Appendix HBB-U Guidelines for Restricted Material Specifications to Improve Performance in Certain Service Applications. In addition to the 2017 Edition, the same parts of the 2019 Edition have also been reviewed as indicated in various sections of the report. This review was conducted by a collaboration of national laboratory and private sector participants with significant industrial experience, including some heavy lifting and deep diving from Clarus Consulting, LLC., all intended to achieve an objective, independent, and practical perspective. The report provides recommendations, descriptions of the evaluation methods, and the source references for the data used. To build confidence required for endorsement of the Code, this review was conducted as a verification and validation of the above Code contents. The objective of verification is to ensure that the Code is free of error – direct or implied; contains the information needed for its use, including proper coverage of the Code-specified materials for the intended application, and completeness and adequacy of references to other portions of the Code. The objective of validation is to authenticate that the Code tabulations and graphs represent design inputs consistent with what are determined using rules and methods specified by the Code. The authentication process used data that were assembled and/or generated independent of Code development, while the methods of analysis followed Code-specified methods where appropriate. The designated portions for this review cover the five alloys codified for high temperature reactor applications in Division 5, i.e. 316 SS, 304 SS, 800H, 2¼Cr-1Mo, and 9Cr-1Mo-V, regarding their general requirements, permitted specifications and design stress intensity values for pressure-retaining applications, deterioration in service, fatigue acceptance test, permissible weld materials, tensile and yield strength, expected minimum stress-to-rupture values (including for Alloy 718), weld stress rupture factors, permissible materials for bolting use, and restricted specifications in certain service applications. Additionally, stress intensity values for bolting materials including 316 SS, 304 SS and alloy 718 were reviewed. Analysis and discussion are also provided on contents outside of these designated Code portions where it was deemed relevant and necessary to develop a technically sound understanding of issues relating to the designated portions. Due to unavailability of sufficient test data on welds during the review period, the weld stress rupture factors in Tables HBB-I-10.14A to E, which cover a total of ten tables for the five alloys welded with twenty-eight different weld metals (some with similar properties), have been deferred to a future review effort. The review identified mainly two types of issues. The first type includes instances where the Code is found factually incomplete or incorrect, such as obsolete materials specifications listings, missing tabulation of stresses for bolting. Changes to the Code are recommended in these cases. The second type of issue includes instances where the Code tabulations and graphs are found to be less conservative than the review analysis results. In these cases, recommendations are made for further review and consideration where the difference in conservatism exceeds 10%, which is our threshold for questioning technical adequacy, meriting a risk assessment by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and/or reactor designers. It is noted that this effort has been executed using all available data and established methods of analysis, including methods and criteria specified and used by the Code. As such, the findings that are presented in quantitative detail, in a format for convenient comparison with the Code, and with identification of where further review is recommended, should provide a sound technical basis for decisions about quantifying the implications of the reduced design margins and technical adequacy/inadequacy to form a basis for conditioning specific Code tabulation values on endorsement. Recommendations for specific changes to the Code, however, entail design conservatism considerations beyond the scope of this review effort, and are not made in this report.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS2006

Applying Advanced and Existing Sensors in Dealing with Potential Natural Disasters

As an integrated observing strategy, the concept of sensorweb for Earth observations is appealing in many aspects. For instance, by increasing the spatial and temporal coverage of observations from space and other vantage points, one can eventually aid in increasing the accuracy of the atmospheric models which are precursor to hurricane track prediction, volcanic eruption forecast, and trajectory path of transcontinental transport of dust, harmful nuclear and chemical plumes. In reality, there is little analysis available in terms of benefits, costs and optimized set of sensors needed to make these necessary observations. This is a complex problem that must be carefully studied and balanced over many boundaries such as science, defense, early warning, security, and surveillance. Simplistically, the sensorweb concept from the technological point of view alone has a great appeal in the defense, early warning and security applications. In fact, it can be relatively less expensive in per unit cost as opposed to building and deploying it for the scientific use. However, overall observing approach should not be singled out and aligned somewhat orthogonally to serve a particular need. On the other hand, the sensorweb should be designed and deployed to serve multiple subject areas and customers simultaneously; and can behave as directed measuring systems for both science and operational entities. Sensorweb can be designed to act as expert systems, and/or also provide a dedicated integrated surveillance network. Today, there is no system in the world that is fully integrated in terms of reporting timely multiple hazards warnings, computing the loss of life and property damage estimates, and is also designed to cater to everyone s needs. It is not an easier problem to undertake and more so is not practically solvable. At this time due to some recent events in the world, the scientific community, social scientists, and operational agencies are more cognizant and getting together to address such colossal problems. Increasing our knowledge of the home planet, via amplified set of observations, is certainly a right step in a right direction. Furthermore, this is a prerequisite in understanding multiple hazard phenomena's. This paper examines various sensorweb options and observing architectures that can be useful specifically in addressing some of these complex issues. The ultimate goal is to serve the society by providing potential natural hazards information to the decision makers in the most expeditious manner so they can prepare themselves to mitigate potential risks to human life, livestock and property.

Habib, Shahid↗

NASA NTRS2006

Should We Enhance the Observing Systems or Improve Coordination Among the Operating Agencies: What is Needed the Most for Security--A Philosophical Discussion

As an integrated observing strategy, the concept of sensorweb for Earth observations is appealing in many aspects. For instance, by increasing the spatial and temporal coverage of observations from space and other vantage points, one can eventually aid in increasing the accuracy of the atmospheric models which are precursor to hurricane track prediction, volcanic eruption forecast, and trajectory path of transcontinental transport of dust, harmful nuclear and chemical plumes. In reality, there is little analysis available in terms of benefits, costs and optimized set of sensors needed to make these necessary observations. This is a complex problem that must be carefully studied and balanced over many boundaries such as science, defense, early warning, security, and surveillance. Simplistically, the sensorweb concept from the technological point of view alone has a great appeal in the defense, early warning and security applications. In fact, it can be relatively less expensive in per unit cost as opposed to building and deploying it for the scientific use. However, overall observing approach should not be singled out and aligned somewhat orthogonally to serve a particular need. On the other hand, the sensorweb should be designed and deployed to serve multiple subject areas and customers simultaneously; and can behave as directed measuring systems for both science and operational entities. Sensorweb can be designed to act as expert systems, and/or also provide a dedicated integrated surveillance network. Today, there is no system in the world that is fully integrated in terms of reporting timely multiple hazards warnings, computing the loss of life and property damage estimates, and is also designed to cater to everyone's needs. It is not an easier problem to undertake and more so is not practically solvable. At this time due to some recent events in the world, the scientific community, social scientists, and operational agencies are more cognizant and getting together to address such colossal problems. Increasing our knowledge of the home planet, via amplified set of observations, is certainly a right step in a right direction. Furthermore, this is a pre-requisite in understanding multiple hazard phenomenas. This paper examines various sensorweb options and observing architectures that can be useful specifically in addressing some of these complex issues. The ultimate goal is to serve the society by providing potential natural hazards information to the decision makers in the most expeditious manner so they can prepare themselves to mitigate potential risks to human life, livestock and property.

Habib, Shahid↗

NASA NTRS2006

Acquiring Comprehensive Observations using an Integrated Sensorweb for Early Warning

As an integrated observing strategy, the concept of sensorweb for Earth observations is appealing in many aspects. For instance, by increasing the spatial and temporal coverage of observations from space and other vantage points, one can eventually aid in increasing the accuracy of the atmospheric models which are precursor to hurricane track prediction, volcanic eruption forecast, and trajectory path of transcontinental transport of dust, harmful nuclear and chemical plumes. In reality, there is little analysis'available in terms of benefits, costs and optimized set of sensors needed to make these necessary observations. This is a complex problem that must be carefully studied and balanced over many boundaries such as science, defense, early warning security, and surveillance. Simplistically, the sensorweb concept from the technological point of view alone has a great appeal in the defense, early warning and security applications. In fact, it can be relatively less expensive in per unit cost as opposed to building and deploying it for the scientific use. However, overall observing approach should not be singled out and aligned somewhat . orthogonally to serve a particular need. On the other hand, the sensorweb should be designed and deployed to serve multiple subject areas and customers simultaneously; and can behave as directed measuring systems for both science and operational entities. Sensorweb can be designed to act as expert systems, and/or also provide a dedicated integrated surveillance network. Today, there is no system in the world that is fully integrated in terms of reporting timely multiple hazards warnings, computing the lass of life and property damage estimates, and is also designed to cater to everyone's needs. It is not an easier problem to undertake and more so is not practically solvable. At this time due to some recent events in the world, the scientific community, social scientists, and operational agencies are more cognizant and getting together to address such colossal problems. Increasing our knowledge of the home planet, via amplified set of observations, is certainly a right step in a right direction. Furthermore, this is a pre-requisite in understanding multiple hazard phenomena's. This paper examines various sensorweb options and observing architectures that can be useful specifically in addressing some of these complex issues. The ultimate goal is to serve the society by providing potential natural hazards information to the decision makers in the most expeditious manner so they can prepare themselves to mitigate potential risks to human life, livestock and property.

Habib, Shahid↗

NASA NTRS2006

Acquiring Comprehensive Observations using an integrated Sensorweb for Early Warning

As an integrated observing strategy, the concept of sensorweb for Earth observations is appealing in many aspects. For instance, by increasing the spatial and temporal coverage of observations from space and other vantage points, one can eventually aid in increasing the accuracy of the atmospheric models which are precursor to hurricane track prediction, volcanic eruption forecast, and trajectory path of transcontinental transport of dust, harmful nuclear and chemical plumes. In reality, there is little analysis'available in terms of benefits, costs and optimized set of sensors needed to make these necessary observations. This is a complex problem that must be carefully studied and balanced over many boundaries such as science, defense, early warning, security, and surveillance. Simplistically, the sensorweb concept from the technological point of view alone has a great appeal in the defense, early warning and security applications. In fact, it can be relatively less expensive in per unit cost as opposed to building and deploying it for the scientific use. However, overall observing approach should not be singled out and aligned somewhat orthogonally to serve a particular need. On the other hand, the sensorweb should be designed and deployed to serve multiple subject areas and customers simultaneously; and can behave as directed measuring systems for both science and operational entities. Sensorweb can be designed to act as expert systems, and/or also provide a dedicated integrated surveillance network. Today, there is no system in the world that is fully integrated in terms of reporting timely multiple hazards warnings, computing the loss of life and property damage estimates, and is also designed to cater to everyone's needs. It is not an easier problem to undertake and more so is not practically solvable. At this time due to some recent events in the world, the scientific community, social scientists, and operational agencies are more cognizant and getting together to address such colossal problems. Increasing our knowledge of the home planet, via amplified set of observations, is certainly a right step in a right direction. Furthermore, this is a pre-requisite in understanding multiple hazard phenomena's. This paper examines various sensorweb options and observing architectures that can be useful specifically in addressing some of these complex issues. The ultimate goal is to serve the society by providing potential natural hazards information to the decision makers in the most expeditious manner so they can prepare themselves to mitigate potential risks to human life, livestock and property.

Habib, Shahid↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Testing a Run-Time Assurance Framework Coupled with Integrated Risk Mitigation Capabilities for Autonomous Urban UAS Flights

The In-Time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS) Concept of Operations (ConOps) envisions new capabilities to monitor, assess, and mitigate flight safety risks. Systems will be tailored to mission type, vehicle/equipage type, operational environment, and safety risk tolerance. Within an IASMS framework, several capabilities may be implemented spanning three operational phases (pre-flight, in-flight, and post-flight/off-line); and consisting of lower level functions and information services which may reside onboard the aircraft, on third-party server(s), and/or on ground/operator station(s). Each capability will be designed to produce and disseminate safety-relevant information; perform detection, diagnosis, and prediction of unsafe situations; and/or execute mitigation actions when hazardous events warrant such changes. This paper focuses on recent testing of airborne capabilities that demonstrate inflight aspects of the overarching concept for autonomous unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) operations in urban environments. A flight test architecture is described that applies run-time assurance principles (e.g., executes independent of the unassured autopilot), real-time risk assessment, and a technique to execute contingencies if necessary either automatically or via pilot intervention. Several tests using small UAS were conducted to verify the assured in-flight risk mitigation capability. The paper draws significantly from a larger NASA technical report and recent prior conference papers, providing additional details. Data is analyzed for two representative flights to illustrate the performance for various sequential and simultaneous hazards used during testing. During each automated flight, several hazards are encountered at various points along the flight path. At each point, the hazard is mitigated by the system, with the vehicle then continuing to subsequent points. The paper concludes with lessons-learned regarding relevant aspects of the overarching IASMS concept and how it may be updated and further advanced in the future.

population activity↗

DOE OSTI2026

Guideline for Characterizing and Evaluating a Candidate Project Site for Solar Thermal Applications

This document presents a structured procedure for characterizing and evaluating candidate project sites for concentrating solar power (CSP) and solar heat for industrial processes (SHIP) applications. The objective is to provide project developers, researchers, and other stakeholders with a consistent, technology-agnostic framework for early-stage site assessment, enabling informed decision-making prior to significant investment in project development. Site selection is a critical factor in project success or failure for both CSP and SHIP projects. Key factors such as solar resource availability, land characteristics, environmental and regulatory constraints, infrastructure availability, and community context are determined by the choice of project site and can materially impact project performance, cost, schedule, and overall viability. This procedure is designed to systematically evaluate these factors, identify potential fatal flaws, and prioritize the most favorable candidate sites for further development. The process begins with rapid screening-level evaluation, using publicly available data to assess solar resource, land availability and suitability, zoning and land-use compatibility, and exclusion zones such as protected lands or sensitive habitats. Sites that meet the minimum screening criteria advance to a more detailed characterization. Subsequent sections of this report provide guidance for a next-level assessment of the most important technical and environmental parameters, including: 1) Solar resource quality, variability, and uncertainty using multiyear datasets and, where appropriate, on-site measurement campaigns; 2) Meteorological conditions such as wind, temperature, extreme weather events, and soiling impacts; 3) Land characteristics including slope, shading, and geotechnical conditions; and 4) Environmental and regulatory considerations, including permitting processes, endangered species, cultural resources, and visual impacts. The procedure also addresses infrastructure and integration considerations, including: 1) Grid interconnection requirements for CSP power generation projects; 2) Electrical and operational integration for SHIP facilities; 3) Water availability, quality, and permitting constraints, which are particularly critical for CSP in arid regions; and 4) Site access, construction logistics, and availability of workforce and supporting services. Recognizing the importance of social and economic context, the procedure includes evaluation of community engagement factors, such as stakeholder sentiment, proximity to sensitive visual receptors, workforce development opportunities, and local economic incentives. The outputs of these assessments are synthesized in a cost and risk evaluation, translating site characteristics into expected impacts on capital cost, operating cost, schedule, and technical risk. This is complemented by screening-level performance modeling, including 8760 simulations and long-term projections, to quantify expected energy or thermal output, assess variability thereof, and support comparison between candidate sites. Finally, the procedure provides high-level guidance on a structured go/no-go decision framework, categorizing sites based on identified risks and constraints, and outlining a clear path forward to feasibility studies and front-end engineering design for viable projects. By standardizing the site characterization process across both CSP and SHIP applications, this guideline aims to: 1) Improve consistency and transparency in early-stage project evaluation; 2) Reduce development risk and avoid investment in nonviable project sites; 3) Support collaboration between developers, researchers, and public agencies; and 4) Accelerate successful deployment of concentrating solar technologies for both power generation and industrial process heat.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗