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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1994

Decision Making in Action

The importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. A similar observation has been made in nuclear power plants. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful in improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multidimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that all crew members have essential information, but it also regulates and coordinates crew actions and is the medium of collective thinking in response to a problem. This presentation will examine the relations between leadership, communication, decision making and overall crew performance. Implications of these findings for spaceflight and training for offshore installations will be discussed.

Orasanu, Judith↗
DOE OSTI2021

Striving to translate shale physics across ten orders of magnitude: What have we learned?

Shales will play an important role in the successful transition of energy from fossil-based resources to renewables in the coming decades. Aside from being a significant source of low-carbon intensity fuels, like natural gas, they also serve as geologic seals of subsurface formations that may be used to isolate nuclear waste, sequester CO 2 , or store intermittent energy (e.g., solar hydrogen). Despite their importance, shales pose significant engineering and environmental challenges due to their nanoporous structure and extreme heterogeneity that spans at least ~10 orders of magnitude in spatial scale. Two challenges inhibit a system-level understanding: (1) the physics of fluid flow and phase behavior in shales are poorly understood due to the dominant molecular interactions between minerals and fluids under confinement, and (2) the apparent lack of scale separation that prevents a reliable (closed) description of the physics at any single scale of observation. In this review, we focus on the latter issue and discuss scale translation, which in its broadest sense is transforming data or simulations from one spatiotemporal scale to another. While effective scale translation is not exclusive to shales, but all geologic porous media, the need for it is especially acute in shales given their high degree of heterogeneity. Classical theories like homogenization, while indispensable, fail when scales are not separated. Other methods, like numerical upscaling, scale-translate in only one direction: small to large, but not the reverse, called downscaling. However, the confluence of advances in three areas are bringing challenging problems such as shales within reach: increased computational power and scalable algorithms; high-resolution imaging and multi-modal data acquisition; and machine learning to process massive amounts of data. While these advances equip geoscientists with a wide array of experimental and computational tools, no individual tool can probe the entire gamut of heterogeneity in shales. Their effective use, therefore, requires an ability to bridge between various data types obtained at different scales. The aim of this review is to present a coherent account of computational and experimental methods that may be used to achieve just that, i.e., to perform scale translation. We provide a broader definition of scale translation, one that transcends classical homogenization and upscaling methods, but is consistent with them and accommodates notions like downscaling and data translation. After a brief introduction to homogenization, we review hybrid methods, numerical upscaling and its recent extensions, multiscale computing, high-resolution imaging, and machine learning. We place particular emphasis on multiscale computing and propose an algorithmic framework to bridge between the pore (micro) and Darcy (macro) scales. Throughout the paper, we draw comparisons between the various methods and highlight their (often hidden) similarities, differences, benefits, and pitfalls. We finally conclude with two case studies on shales that exemplify some of the methods presented.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Groundwater Modeling of the RDX Plume at Los Alamos National Laboratory to Support Risk Assessment - 20359

A plume of the contaminant hexahydro-1,3,5-trinitro-1,3,5-triazine (RDX) with concentrations greater than the New Mexico tap water drinking standard (9.66 ppb) is present in the regional aquifer near the southwestern boundary of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). A risk assessment is performed for exposure to regional aquifer groundwater, with long-term predictions of RDX concentrations provided by a calibrated, probabilistic, numerical fate and transport model. The structure of the model is hierarchical, with the RDX Regional Aquifer (RA) groundwater model acting as the primary tool for analysis of downgradient RDX concentrations. The RA model is deeply informed by the conceptual site model (CSM) and is calibrated using site RDX concentration data and hydraulic head measurements, along with other analyses. The model is calibrated using data through December 2019. Where data are scarce other lines of evidence are used to inform inputs, including the multiphase RDX Vadose Zone (VZ) model and Pipe and Disk analytical screening tool. Model inputs are described with informative prior distributions using a robust approach to development that incorporates all available lines of evidence for every parameter used as an input to the RA model. Calibration is performed using a classical nonlinear optimization routine, which is then used to initialize a Bayesian calibration. The Bayesian calibration constrains the uncertainty in the classical calibration, ultimately providing posterior distributions for all model parameters. The challenges of the calibration include high-dimensional parameter space, including spatially heterogeneous hydraulic conductivities, comparatively sparse data, and low RDX concentrations. Posterior parameter distributions developed in the calibration process are then used for stochastic predictive model runs into the future. The result of the forward runs is spatially and temporally explicit estimates of head and concentration with uncertainty at all points in space and time. The probabilistic modeling approach presented here includes innovative computational and statistical methods that leverage high-performance computing (HPC) resources. It makes use of prior modeling work performed at the chromium plume site in the central LANL area, with extensive updates. The risk assessment will ultimately be used to support decision-making at the site, using multiple appropriately weighted sources of information, as well as uncertainty, sensitivity, and value-of-information analyses. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS2005

Online fault adaptive control for efficient resource management in Advanced Life Support Systems

This article presents the design and implementation of a controller scheme for efficient resource management in Advanced Life Support Systems. In the proposed approach, a switching hybrid system model is used to represent the dynamics of the system components and their interactions. The operational specifications for the controller are represented by utility functions, and the corresponding resource management problem is formulated as a safety control problem. The controller is designed as a limited-horizon online supervisory controller that performs a limited forward search on the state-space of the system at each time step, and uses the utility functions to decide on the best action. The feasibility and accuracy of the online algorithm can be assessed at design time. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the scheme by running a set of experiments on the Reverse Osmosis (RO) subsystem of the Water Recovery System (WRS).

NASA Discipline Life Support Systems↗
DOE OSTI2026

Uniting Theory and Experiment to Deliver Flexible MOFS for Superior Methane (NG) Storage

The objective of the project was to use previous insights developed through synthesis and quantitative modeling of rigid metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) in an established synergistic theoretical/experimental team to create, modify, and evaluate flexible MOFs (FlexMOFs) for natural gas (NG) storage and release at practically useful pressures and transform the NG storage economy. The goal was reduced pressure absorbed natural gas (ANG) FlexMOF storage at operating pressures less than 100 bar with physisorption exploiting the favorable thermodynamics and kinetics of flexible porous material opening in response to adsorption. Hydrogen behavior in this context was also considered. The specific aim of the project was to design and develop a standard computational modeling methodology for, first, detailed atomistic retrodiction of FlexMOF gating behavior and ultimately prediction of the effects of functionalization and/or substitution on structural transitioning. The project was also geared towards the establishment of the interaction of methane with the framework and binding sites using modeling and the FlexMOF will be both internally and external validated as a SMART metric. This has value to the scientific community both from the obvious standpoint of providing a better understanding of the promising test case systems (CdIF-13 and the MIL-53(Al) series of MOFs), but also in providing an avenue of obtaining insight into these FlexMOF systems in general, which is of particular interest given the tendency of structure-function correlation to lag behind synthesis methodology (making the latter a hit or miss proposition for applications). This gap remains significant for FlexMOF systems whose gate opening behaviors complicate computational examination. The computational methodologies are relatively inexpensive in terms of both money and computational resources enhancing the general viability of these methodologies. The ultimate gain to the public will be in the application of these techniques to design systems for natural gas storage and use to cut down on green-house emissions.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
NASA NTRS1986

Exobiology experiment concepts for space station

The exobiology discipline uses ground based and space flight resources to conduct a multidiscipline research effort dedicated to understanding fundamental questions about the origin, evolution, and distribution of life and life related molecules throughout the universe. Achievement of this understanding requires a methodical research strategy which traces the history of the biogenic elements from their origins in stellar formation processes through the chemical evolution of molecules essential for life to the origin and evolution of primitive and, ultimately, complex living species. Implementation of this strategy requires the collection and integration of data from solar system exploration spacecraft and ground based and orbiting observatories and laboratories. The Science Lab Module (SLM) of the Space Station orbiting complex may provide an ideal setting in which to perform certain classes of experiments which form the cornerstone of exobiology research. These experiments could demonstrate the pathways and processes by which biomolecules are synthesized under conditions that simulate the primitive Earth, planetary atmospheres, cometary ices, and interstellar dust grains. Exobiology experiments proposed for the Space Station generally fall into four classes: interactions among gases and grains (nucleation, accretion, gas-grain reactions), high energy chemistry for the production of biomolecules, physical and chemical processes occurring on an artificial comet, and tests of the theory of panspermia.

Griffiths, L. D.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Exobiology experiment concepts for Space Station

The exobiology discipline uses ground based and space flight resources to conduct a multidiscipline research effort dedicated to understanding fundamental questions about the origin, evolution, and distribution of life and life related molecules throughout the universe. Achievement of this understanding requires a methodical research strategy which traces the history of the biogenic elements from their origins in stellar formation processes through the chemical evolution of molecules essential for life to the origin and evolution of primitive and, ultimately, complex living species. Implementation of this strategy requires the collection and integration of data from solar system exploration spacecraft and ground based and orbiting observatories and laboratories. The Science Lab Module (SLM) of the Space Station orbiting complex may provide an ideal setting in which to perform certain classes of experiments which form the cornerstone of exobiology research. These experiments could demonstrate the pathways and processes by which biomolecules are synthesized under conditions that stimulate the primitive earth, planetary atmospheres, cometary ices, and interstellar dust grains. Exobiology experiments proposed for the Space Station generally fall into four classes: interactions among gases and grains (nucleation, accretion, gas-grain reactions), high energy chemistry for the production of biomolecules, physical and chemical processes occurring on an artificial comet, and tests of the theory of panspermia.

Griffiths, Lynn D.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Parametrized process characterization with reduced resource requirements

Quantum process tomography (QPT) is a powerful tool to characterize quantum operations, but it requires considerable resources, making it impractical for more than two-qubit systems. This study proposes an alternative approach that requires significantly fewer resources for unitary process characterization with a built-in method for state preparation and measurement error mitigation. By measuring the quantum process as rotated through the X and Y axes on the Bloch sphere, we can acquire enough information to reconstruct the quantum process matrix χ and measure its fidelity. We test the algorithm's performance against standard QPT using simulated and physical experiments on several IBM quantum processors and compare the resulting process matrices. We demonstrate with numerical experiments that the method can improve gate fidelity via a noise reduction in the imaginary part of the process matrix, along with a stark decrease in the number of experiments needed to perform the characterization.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fixed Depth Hamiltonian Simulation via Cartan Decomposition

Simulating quantum dynamics on classical computers is challenging for large systems due to the significant memory requirements. Simulation on quantum computers is a promising alternative, but fully optimizing quantum circuits to minimize limited quantum resources remains an open problem. In this study, we tackle this problem by presenting a constructive algorithm, based on Cartan decomposition of the Lie algebra generated by the Hamiltonian, which generates quantum circuits with time-independent depth. We highlight our algorithm for special classes of models, including Anderson localization in one-dimensional transverse field $\mathrm{XY}$ model, where $\mathscr{O}$(n 2 )-gate circuits naturally emerge. Compared to product formulas with significantly larger gate counts, our algorithm drastically improves simulation precision. In addition to providing exact circuits for a broad set of spin and fermionic models, our algorithm provides broad analytic and numerical insight into optimal Hamiltonian simulations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Structured Adaptive Mesh Refinement Adaptations to Retain Performance Portability With Increasing Heterogeneity

Adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) is an important method that enables many mesh-based applications to run at effectively higher resolution within limited computing resources by allowing high resolution only where really needed. This advantage comes at a cost, however: greater complexity in the mesh management machinery and challenges with load distribution. With the current trend of increasing heterogeneity in hardware architecture, AMR presents an orthogonal axis of complexity. Additionally, the usual techniques, such as asynchronous communication and hierarchy management for parallelism and memory that are necessary to obtain reasonable performance are very challenging to reason about with AMR. Different groups working with AMR are bringing different approaches to this challenge. Here, we examine the design choices of several AMR codes and also the degree to which demands placed on them by their users influence these choices.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

S-QGPU: Shared quantum gate processing unit for distributed quantum computing

We propose a distributed quantum computing (DQC) architecture in which individual small-sized quantum computers are connected to a shared quantum gate processing unit (S-QGPU). The S-QGPU comprises a collection of hybrid two-qubit gate modules for remote gate operations. In contrast to conventional DQC systems, where each quantum computer is equipped with dedicated communication qubits, S-QGPU effectively pools the resources (e.g., the communication qubits) together for remote gate operations, and, thus, significantly reduces the cost of not only the local quantum computers but also the overall distributed system. Our preliminary analysis and simulation show that S-QGPU's shared resources for remote gate operations enable efficient resource utilization. When not all computing qubits (also called data qubits) in the system require simultaneous remote gate operations, S-QGPU-based DQC architecture demands fewer communication qubits, further decreasing the overall cost. Alternatively, with the same number of communication qubits, it can support a larger number of simultaneous remote gate operations more efficiently, especially when these operations occur in a burst mode.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Simulated Adhesive Response to Aging (CRADA 453 Final Report)

The goal of this project was to develop a suite of molecular models to investigate adhesive performance as a result of the presence of different levels of moisture. These different levels of moisture are accepted in the adhesives community to represent different states of aging. First, our team modeled the adhesive’s crosslinked structure. Next, we modeled adding water to the crosslinked structure and used high performance computing resources to simulate water diffusion through the bulk adhesive and possible sites for chain scission. Finally, we modeled the response of the simulated adhesive to tensile loads at various levels of moisture content. These simulations were validated by experimental characterization by the industry partner. We found that the Young’s modulus of the adhesive decreased by about 30% when the water content increased to 3 wt.%. Our simulations also identified the likely site where the polymer chain could break. Our integration of molecular level simulations and mechanical property predictions using high performance computing with experimental studies of a hydrated epoxy system has yielded fundamental insights that will help industry advance lightweight joining technologies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1984

Andean tectonics: Implications for Satellite Geodesy

Current knowledge and theories of large scale Andean tectonics as they relate to site planning for the NASA Crustal Dynamics Program's proposed high precision geodetic measurements of relative motions between the Nazca and South American plates are summarized. The Nazca Plate and its eastern margin, the Peru-Chile Trench, is considered a prototype plate marked by rapid motion, strong seismicity and well defined boundaries. Tectonic activity across the Andes results from the Nazca Plate subducting under the South American plate in a series of discrete platelets with different widths and dip angles. This in turn, is reflected in the tectonic complexity of the Andes which are a multitutde of orogenic belts superimposed on each other since the Precambrian. Sites for Crustal Dynamics Program measurements are being located to investigate both interplate and extraplate motions. Observing operations have already been initiated at Arequipa, Peru and Easter Island, Santiago and Cerro Tololo, Chile. Sites under consideration include Iquique, Chile; Oruro and Santa Cruz, Bolivia; Cuzco, Lima, Huancayo and Bayovar, Peru; and Quito and the Galapagos Islands, Ecuador. Based on scientific considerations, Santa Cruz, Huancayo (or Lima), Quito and the Galapagos Islands should be replaced by Isla San Felix, Chile; Brazilia or Petrolina, Brazil; and Guayaquil, Ecuador. If resources permit, additional important sites would be Buenaventura and Villavicencio or Puerto La Concordia, Colombia; and Mendoza and Cordoba, Argentina.

Allenby, R. J.↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Coordination Chemistry and Stoichiometry of Extracted Diglycolamide Complexes of Lanthanides in Extraction Chromatography Materials

Industrial rare earth element (REE) separations predominantly utilize solvent extraction processes tailored toward conventional resources such as bastnäsite, monazite, and ion adsorption clays. Advances in diglycolamide (DGA) chemistry have shown effective extraction characteristics for REE separations. However, limitations associated with traditional DGA solvent extraction techniques, such as third-phase formation and gelling, have hindered commercial viability. By supporting DGA extractants on porous resins such as polystyrene divinyl benzene (PS-DVB), the desirable combination of solvent extraction selectivity and ease of operation of sorbent columns can be achieved. To design a low-cost model for such solid-supported DGAs, extraction characteristics as influenced by the underlying coordination chemistry must be explored to achieve efficient functional systems. Within this study, we report novel DGA resin materials, each incorporating one of the DGAs N,N,N’,N’-tetra-(1-octyl)-3-oxapentane-1,5-diamide (TODGA), N,N'-dimethyl-N,N'-dioctyl-3-oxapentane-1,5-diamide (DMDODGA), and 2,2'-oxybis(1-(3-(((2-ethylhexyl)thio)methyl)-4-methylpyrrolidin-1-yl)ethan-1-one) (DEHPDGA). The affinity of DGAs across the lanthanide (Ln) series was evaluated for both hydrochloric acid and nitric acid media with varying Ln feed concentrations to study distribution ratios and loading characteristics. Focusing on dysprosium, extended X-Ray Absorption Fine Structure (EXAFS) and density functional theory (DFT) calculations were also utilized to explore coordination chemistry and their effects on ligand performance. The general trend for both acid media resulted in DMDODGA having the highest extraction strength of all three DGAs at varying acid concentrations. Coordination-chemistry analysis supported by loading data, DFT calculations, and EXAFS results under forced loading conditions posited less than the expected 3:1 ligand-to-metal coordination.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1998

Preliminary Work for Examining the Scalability of Reinforcement Learning

Researchers began studying automated agents that learn to perform multiple-step tasks early in the history of artificial intelligence (Samuel, 1963; Samuel, 1967; Waterman, 1970; Fikes, Hart & Nilsonn, 1972). Multiple-step tasks are tasks that can only be solved via a sequence of decisions, such as control problems, robotics problems, classic problem-solving, and game-playing. The objective of agents attempting to learn such tasks is to use the resources they have available in order to become more proficient at the tasks. In particular, each agent attempts to develop a good policy, a mapping from states to actions, that allows it to select actions that optimize a measure of its performance on the task; for example, reducing the number of steps necessary to complete the task successfully. Our study focuses on reinforcement learning, a set of learning techniques where the learner performs trial-and-error experiments in the task and adapts its policy based on the outcome of those experiments. Much of the work in reinforcement learning has focused on a particular, simple representation, where every problem state is represented explicitly in a table, and associated with each state are the actions that can be chosen in that state. A major advantage of this table lookup representation is that one can prove that certain reinforcement learning techniques will develop an optimal policy for the current task. The drawback is that the representation limits the application of reinforcement learning to multiple-step tasks with relatively small state-spaces. There has been a little theoretical work that proves that convergence to optimal solutions can be obtained when using generalization structures, but the structures are quite simple. The theory says little about complex structures, such as multi-layer, feedforward artificial neural networks (Rumelhart & McClelland, 1986), but empirical results indicate that the use of reinforcement learning with such structures is promising. These empirical results make no theoretical claims, nor compare the policies produced to optimal policies. A goal of our work is to be able to make the comparison between an optimal policy and one stored in an artificial neural network. A difficulty of performing such a study is finding a multiple-step task that is small enough that one can find an optimal policy using table lookup, yet large enough that, for practical purposes, an artificial neural network is really required. We have identified a limited form of the game OTHELLO as satisfying these requirements. The work we report here is in the very preliminary stages of research, but this paper provides background for the problem being studied and a description of our initial approach to examining the problem. In the remainder of this paper, we first describe reinforcement learning in more detail. Next, we present the game OTHELLO. Finally we argue that a restricted form of the game meets the requirements of our study, and describe our preliminary approach to finding an optimal solution to the problem.

Clouse, Jeff↗
DOE OSTI2021

Ecological stoichiometry as a foundation for omics-enabled biogeochemical models of soil organic matter decomposition

Coupled biogeochemical cycles drive ecosystem ecology by influencing individual-to-community scale behaviors; yet the development of process-based models that accurately capture these dynamics remains elusive. Soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition in particular is influenced by resource stoichiometry that dictates microbial nutrient acquisition (‘ecological stoichiometry’). Despite its basis in biogeochemical modeling, ecological stoichiometry is only implicitly considered in high-resolution microbial investigations and the metabolic models they inform. State-of-science SOM decomposition models in both fields have advanced largely separately, but they agree on a need to move beyond seminal pool-based models. This presents an opportunity and a challenge to maximize the strengths of various models across different scales and environmental contexts. To address this challenge, we contend that ecological stoichiometry provides a framework for merging biogeochemical and microbiological models, as both explicitly consider substrate chemistries that are the basis of ecological stoichiometry as applied to SOM decomposition. We highlight two gaps that limit our understanding of SOM decomposition: (1) understanding how individual microorganisms alter metabolic strategies in response to substrate stoichiometry and (2) translating this knowledge to the scale of biogeochemical models. We suggest iterative information exchange to refine the objectives of high-resolution investigations and to specify limited dynamics for representation in large-scale models, resulting in a new class of omics-enabled biogeochemical models. Assimilating theoretical and modelling frameworks from different scientific domains is the next frontier in SOM decomposition modelling; advancing technologies in the context of stoichiometric theory provides a consistent framework for interpreting molecular data, and further distilling this information into tractable SOM decomposition models.

Carbon cycling↗
DOE OSTI2024

Game Theoretic Orchestration for Cooperation among Power Distribution System Applications

The evolving transformation with the proliferation of distributed energy resources and advanced metering, necessitates advanced distribution systems to integrate and orchestrate a large number of grid-edge devices while also serving multiple system-level objectives such as resilience, decarbonization, equity and other system mandates. The parallel deployment and control of resources towards achieving diverse objectives may lead to conflicts between applications that want to control overlapping sets of device setpoints, potentially leading to oscillatory behavior and suboptimal performance. This work aims at leveraging game theoretic framework to drive cooperative behavior among competitive applications. The work proposes a weighted-consensus based game design to facilitate conflict resolution through consensus-building iterations for modular platform. Simulation-based evaluation on a sample test system demonstrates the performance the proposed deconfliction strategy in resolving operational conflicts and achieving close-to-optimal trade off among the applications. Results also compare the proposed strategy with a distribution optimization approach and illustrate it effectiveness in diverse apps regardless of their design while also incentivizing apps with flexible design.

Advanced distribution operations, cooperation, app↗
NASA NTRS1993

Pigs in cyberspace

Exploration and colonization of the universe awaits, but Earth-adapted biological humans are ill-equipped to respond to the challenge. Machines have gone farther and seen more, limited though they presently are by insect-like behavior inflexibility. As they become smarter over the coming decades, space will be theirs. Organizations of robots of ever increasing intelligence and sensory and motor ability will expand and transform what they occupy, working with matter, space and time. As they grow, a smaller and smaller fraction of their territory will be undeveloped frontier. Competitive success will depend more and more on using already available matter and space in ever more refined and useful forms. The process, analogous to the miniaturization that makes today's computers a trillion times more powerful than the mechanical calculators of the past, will gradually transform all activity from grossly physical homesteading of raw nature, to minimum-energy quantum transactions of computation. The final frontier will be urbanized, ultimately into an arena where every bit of activity is a meaningful computation: the inhabited portion of the universe will be transformed into a cyberspace. Because it will use resources more efficiently, a mature cyberspace of the distant future will be effectively much bigger than the present physical universe. While only an infinitesimal fraction of existing matter and space is doing interesting work, in a well developed cyberspace every bit will be part of a relevant computation or storing a useful datum. Over time, more compact and faster ways of using space and matter will be invented, and used to restructure the cyberspace, effectively increasing the amount of computational spacetime per unit of physical spacetime. Computational speed-ups will affect the subjective experience of entities in the cyberspace in a paradoxical way. At first glimpse, there is no subjective effect, because everything, inside and outside the individual, speeds up equally. But, more subtly, speed-up produces an expansion of the cyber universe, because, as thought accelerates, more subjective time passes during the fixed (probably lightspeed) physical transit time of a message between a given pair of locations - so those fixed locations seem to grow farther apart. Also, as information storage is made continually more efficient through both denser utilization of matter and more efficient encodings, there will be increasingly more cyber-stuff between any two points. The effect may somewhat resemble the continuous-creation process in the old steady-state theory of the physical universe of Hoyle, Bondi and Gold, where hydrogen atoms appear just fast enough throughout the expanding cosmos to maintain a constant density.

Moravec, Hans↗