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DOE OSTI2023

Reconstructing large-scale temperature profiles around z ∼ 6 quasars

ABSTRACT High-redshift quasars ionize He ii into He iii around them, heating the intergalactic medium in the process and creating large regions with elevated temperature. In this work, we demonstrate a method based on a convolutional neural network (CNN) to recover the spatial profile for T0, the temperature at the mean cosmic density, in quasar proximity zones. We train the neural network with synthetic spectra drawn from a Cosmic Reionization on Computers simulation. We discover that the simple CNN is able to recover the temperature profile with an accuracy of ≈1400 K in an idealized case of negligible observational uncertainties. We test the robustness of the CNN and discover that it is robust against the uncertainties in quasar host halo mass, quasar continuum, and ionizing flux. We also find that the CNN has good generality with regard to the hardness of quasar spectra. This shows that with noiseless spectra, one could use a simple CNN to distinguish gas inside or outside the He iii region created by the quasar. Because the size of the He iii region is closely related to the total quasar lifetime, this method has great potential in constraining the quasar lifetime on ∼Myr time-scales. However, noise poses a big problem for accuracy and could downgrade the accuracy to ≈2340 K even for very high signal-to-noise (≳50) spectra. Future studies are needed to reduce the error associated with noise to constrain the lifetimes of reionization epoch quasars with currently available data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Sublimation temperature sensor for temperature locale

The sublimation temperature sensor (or “sublime sensor”) provides a continuum of measurement locations in which certain maximum temperatures are achieved during a heat up/cool down cycle. A predetermined material is encapsulated within a vacuum-sealed, non-volatile long tube (i.e., both ends capped and L$\gg$ D). This assembly is then inserted and centered into a heated zone, such as a furnace, exhaust pipe, or reactor. As the temperature increases, the material will sublimate (i.e., a process of having both the solid and gaseous states of matter simultaneously present) and will begin to fill the void - moving outward in both directions toward the ends of the tube. Once beyond the elevated temperatures, the gas will de-sublimate (i.e., deposition) onto the inner wall of the tube. The desired result of the sensor is the ring of material that develops over a relatively short period of time. This material deposit can be equated with temperature at an exact location. There is no need to interpolate and/or extrapolate for the desired measurement. Accuracy has been recorded for temperature locations on the range of ±2 mm over a 1 m span. Likewise, the precision of the measurement is ±0.2% the overall sensor domain. Furthermore, individual tubes with unique materials and pressures can be bundled together to provide a complete temperature profile of the heated zone.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2023

Explainability and extrapolation of machine learning models for predicting the glass transition temperature of polymers

Abstract Machine learning (ML) offers promising tools to develop surrogate models for polymers' structure–property relations. Surrogate models can be built upon existing polymer data and are useful for rapidly predicting the properties of unknown polymers. The accuracy of such ML models appears to depend on the feature space representation of polymers, the range of training data, and learning algorithms. Here, we establish connections between these factors for predicting the glass transition temperature (T g ) of polymers. Our analysis suggests linear models with fewer fitting parameters are as accurate as nonlinear models with many hidden and unexplainable parameters. Also, the performance of a monomer topology‐based ML model is found to be qualitatively identical to that of a physicochemical descriptor‐based ML model. We find that the ML models's performance in the extrapolative region is enhanced as the property range of the training data increases. Moreover, we establish newT g – polymer chemistry correlations via ML. Our work illustrates how ML can advance the fundamental understanding of polymer structure–property correlations and its efficacy for extrapolation problems.

Polymer Science↗

DOE OSTI2025

RSPECT: A PROSPECT-based model incorporating the real structure of rice leaves

Radiative transfer models (RTMs) describe how light is absorbed, scattered, and transmitted within leaves by simulating mechanistic light propagation processes. The PROSPECT model is based on measurable parameters (the leaf biochemical content) and a non-measurable parameter (the leaf anatomical structure represented by the leaf structure parameter (N)). The effect of N on the optical properties of leaves has been investigated through a number of local and global sensitivity analyses. Other studies have directly evaluated the effect of the leaf anatomical structure on spectral reflectance, particularly in the near infrared region. However, the relationship between N and the anatomical structure is unclear. Here, in this study, we leveraged eLeaf, a ray tracing-based 3D rice leaf simulator, to establish relationships between leaf anatomical features and spectral properties, enabling us to replace N in the PROSPECT-4 model with measurable leaf anatomical parameters and develop the RSPECT model. The leaf thickness at minor vein, leaf thickness at bulliform cells, mesophyll thickness at minor vein, and distance between two minor veins could be used to predict N effectively. The RSPECT model achieved spectral simulation accuracy comparable to PROSPECT-4 and was more suitable for parameter inversion of the physical and chemical properties of rice leaves, with relative root mean square errors of 7.4% for chlorophyll content, 5.6% for equivalent water thickness, and 7.5% for dry matter content. In conclusion, RSPECT improves radiative transfer modeling by integrating measurable anatomical features and provides a framework for extending this approach to other vegetation types.

hyperspectral↗

DOE OSTI2024

The motional Stark effect diagnostic for ITER

An overview of the plans for the motional Stark effect (MSE) diagnostic installation on the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) is presented. The MSE diagnostic uniquely provides spatially localized magnetic field measurements inside the plasma. These are used to constrain equilibrium reconstructions to determine q(r), the safety factor as a function of minor radius. Meeting the system requirements to deliver q-profiles and related quantities with the specified radial resolution of 20 points over the minor radius, 10 ms time resolution, and better than 10% accuracy is challenging. MSE systems observe the D/H-α emission near 656.3 nm from neutral beams. As the beam atoms traverse the magnetic field, B⃗, at high velocity, v⃗, they experience a Lorentz electric field, v⃗×B⃗, which causes the spectral emission to be split and polarized due to the Stark effect. Traditional MSE-LP (line polarization) measurements determine the direction of the magnetic field in the observation volume using polarimetric analysis of the detected light. The harsh conditions of ITER are expected to deposit thin films of contaminants on the first mirror, which would alter the polarization state of reflected light significantly. On ITER, the combination of high magnetic field strength and high energy beams makes the Stark spectrum resolution suitable for the determination of the magnetic field magnitude from the line shift, so this approach has been selected. Every aspect of the measurement system must be planned for the burning plasma environment and carefully analyzed ahead of time. Current status and plans for the system are presented.

Instruments & Instrumentation↗

DOE OSTI2021

Identifying Entangled Physics Relationships Through Sparse Matrix Decomposition to Inform Plasma Fusion Design

We report a sustainable burn platform through inertial confinement fusion (ICF) has been an ongoing challenge for over 50 years. Mitigating engineering limitations and improving the current design involves an understanding of the complex coupling of physical processes. While sophisticated simulation codes are used to model ICF implosions, these tools contain necessary numerical approximation but miss physical processes that limit predictive capability. Identification of relationships between controllable design inputs to ICF experiments and measurable outcomes (e.g., neutron yield, neutron velocity, areal density) from performed experiments can help guide the future design of experiments and development of simulation codes, to potentially improve the accuracy of the computational models used to simulate ICF experiments. We use sparse matrix decomposition methods to identify clusters of a few related design variables. Sparse principal component analysis (SPCA) identifies groupings that are related to the physical origin of the variables (laser, hohlraum, and capsule). A variable importance analysis finds that in addition to variables highly correlated with neutron yield, such as picket power and laser energy, variables that represent a dramatic change of the ICF design, such as number of pulse steps, are also very important. The obtained sparse components are then used to train a random forest (RF) regression surrogate for predicting total yield. The RF performance on the training and testing data compares with the performance of the RF trained using all the design variables considered. This work is intended to inform design changes in future ICF experiments by augmenting the expert intuition and simulation results.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

DUNE and MINERvA Flux Studies and a Measurement of the Charged-Current Quasielastic Antineutrino Scattering Cross Section with $<E_{\nu}> \sim 6 $ GeV on a CH Target

One of the biggest open questions in physics is the prevalence of matter over anti-matter in the present universe. One of possible answers lies in the violation of charge and parity symmetry in the lepton sector that would favor matter over anti-matter so that the universe becomes dominated by matter over time. Recent results from neutrino experiments like T2K and NOvA have indicated that there is CP violation in the leptonic sector \citep{Abe:2019vii}. However, the precise measurement of CP violation will require an unprecedented level of accuracy in these oscillation experiments. One of the challenges lies with the systematic uncertainties that come with the measurements, which include uncertainties related to the neutrino flux modeling, interaction modeling and detector related systematic uncertainties.\\ The first part of this thesis will go through the challenges related to flux uncertainties. It will discuss the flux uncertainties related to hadron production in the LBN F beamli ne for the DUNE experiment. Hadron production models used in flux simulations vary widely depending on the simulation and choice of physics models used to simulate the hadron production. This thesis will explain the method of using existing hadron production data to constrain these uncertainties, a method which has been used in MINERvA experiment.\\ The second part of the thesis goes through the effect of possible flux mismodeling and MINERvA's approach to address this effect. In doing so, we discovered that the suspected mismodeling could also result from incorrect estimation of the energy scale of the muons. This project not only demonstrated the challenges of flux modeling but also led to a novel approach of using neutrino energy spectra to understand the correlation between detector and neutrino beamline parameters. \\ A high statistics measurement of the anti-neutrino scattering cross section in the charged current quasielastic (CCQE) channel is the final part of the th esis. Th e 2-body interactions in this channel have the advantage of allowing reconstruction of the interaction kinematics from the outgoing muon trajectory which can be measured very well. Double differential cross sections as a function of muon kinematics, one of the deliverables of this analysis, will help future oscillation experiments understand their data. The cross-section as a function of the four-momentum transferred from the leptonic system to the hadronic system ($Q^{2}_{QE}$) can be used to test models used in simulating antineutrino interactions and the nuclear effects that can modify the predicted cross sections. Nuclear effects arise from the complex nuclear environment and both modify the initial scattering and change the fate of the particles produced from in neutrino-nucleus interactions. Study of nuclear effects will help to understand the structure of the atomic nucleus and its impact on neutrino interactions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

The importance of round-robin validation when assessing machine-learning-based vertical extrapolation of wind speeds

The extrapolation of wind speeds measured at a meteorological mast to wind turbine rotor heights is a key component in a bankable wind farm energy assessment and a significant source of uncertainty. Industry-standard methods for extrapolation include the power-law and logarithmic profiles. The emergence of machine-learning applications in wind energy has led to several studies demonstrating substantial improvements in vertical extrapolation accuracy in machine-learning methods over these conventional power-law and logarithmic profile methods. In all cases, these studies assess relative model performance at a measurement site where, critically, the machine-learning algorithm requires knowledge of the rotor-height wind speeds in order to train the model. This prior knowledge provides fundamental advantages to the site-specific machine-learning model over the power-law and log profiles, which, by contrast, are not highly tuned to rotor-height measurements but rather can generalize to any site. Furthermore, there is no practical benefit in applying a machine-learning model at a site where winds at the heights relevant for wind energy production are known; rather, its performance at nearby locations (i.e., across a wind farm site) without rotor-height measurements is of most practical interest. To more fairly and practically compare machine-learning-based extrapolation to standard approaches, we implemented a round-robin extrapolation model comparison, in which a random-forest machine-learning model is trained and evaluated at different sites and then compared against the power-law and logarithmic profiles. We consider 20 months of lidar and sonic anemometer data collected at four sites between 50 and 100 km apart in the central United States. We find that the random forest outperforms the standard extrapolation approaches, especially when incorporating surface measurements as inputs to include the influence of atmospheric stability. When compared at a single site (the traditional comparison approach), the machine-learning improvement in mean absolute error was 28 % and 23 % over the power-law and logarithmic profiles, respectively. Using the round-robin approach proposed here, this improvement drops to 20 % and 14 %, respectively. These latter values better represent practical model performance, and we conclude that round-robin validation should be the standard for machine-learning-based wind speed extrapolation methods.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Computer-aided design of stability enhanced nicotinamide cofactor biomimetics for cell-free biocatalysis

Cell-free biocatalysis (CFB) is an efficient and environmentally friendly method to synthesize molecules such as pharmaceuticals, biochemicals, and biofuels through the in vitro use of enzyme cascades. These enzymes often require redox cofactors to drive chemical reactions. Natural redox cofactors (NAD(P)H) are expensive to isolate, motivating synthetic nicotinamide cofactor biomimetics (NCBs) as a cost-effective solution. A select handful of NCBs have been identified as potential NAD(P)H alternatives with comparable or improved redox capabilities, however, they display a tendency to degrade in common buffers. In this study, a library of 132 NCB candidates is systematically generated, over 85% of which have not been characterized in the literature, to expand the diversity of currently explored NCBs. The decomposition mechanism of NCBs in phosphate is evaluated using density functional theory (DFT), revealing protonation at the nicotinamide C5 position as a reporter of cofactor stability. Based on this result, we trained a linear regression model on DFT calculated descriptors to predict NCB stability in phosphate buffer, achieving mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean squared error (RMSE) values within computational accuracy. Analysis of key atomic descriptors and qualitative trends in our dataset informed the design of novel NCB candidates we propose with optimized stability. This work enables researchers to predict the relative stability of NCBs before synthesis, thereby streamlining the process to make CFB more affordable and viable at industry scales.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Impact of Advection Schemes on Tracer Interrelationships in Large-Eddy Simulations of Deep Convection

This study investigates the preservation of tracer interrelationships during advection in large-eddy simulations of an idealized deep convective cloud, which is particularly relevant to chemistry, aerosol, and cloud microphysics models. Employing the Cloud Model 1, advection is represented using third-, fifth-, and seventh-order weighted essentially non-oscillatory schemes. As a simplified analogy for cloud hydrometeors and aerosols, several inert passive tracers following linear and nonlinear relationships are initialized after the cloud reaches ~6-km depth. Numerical mixing in the simulated turbulent convective clouds leads to significant deviations from the initial nonlinear relationships between tracers. In these simulations, a considerable fraction of the grid points where the tracers’ nonlinear relationships are altered from advection are classified as unrealistic (e.g., ~13% for the environmental tracers on average), including errors from range-preserving unmixing and overshooting. Errors in the sum of three tracers are also relatively large, ranging between ~1% and 16% for 5% of the grid points in and near the cloud. The magnitude of unrealistic mixing and errors in the sum of three tracers generally increase with the order of accuracy of the advection scheme. These results are consistent across model grid spacings ranging from 50 to 200 m, and across three different flow realizations for each combination of grid spacing and advection scheme tested. Tests employing a previously proposed scalar normalization procedure show substantially reduced errors in the sum of three tracers with a relatively small negative impact on other tracer relationships. This analysis, therefore, suggests efficacy of the normalization procedure when applied to turbulent three-dimensional cloud simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Non-contact Current-Voltage (I-V) Tracer for Photovoltaics

This report presents a non-contact approach to simultaneously obtain current-voltage (I-V) curves of photovoltaic (PV) substrings and modules in a string without the need of disconnecting the individual modules from the string. There are two types of I-V curve tracers currently available in the marketplace, capacitor-based and electronic load-based. The primary requirement of these conventional I-V tracers is the disconnection of individual modules in the string so the individual modules contacted through the connectors of the individual modules. These contact-tracers have three major limitations in the utility scale power plants: First limitation – Weather and Accuracy: The mass-produced commercial contact-tracers cannot obtain the I-V curves of both string and its modules (as high as 30 modules), almost simultaneously (within about 5 minutes) at, practically, a single irradiance level, a single module temperature, a single spectrum and a single AOI (angle of incidence). This inability of the contact-tracers forces the testing personnel to wait for an extended or multiple sunny (>800 W/m 2 ) duration(s) of a cloudy day. This is a serious limitation as waiting for the sunny conditions or days is a huge practical challenge in almost all locations, except desert locations. Also, since the I-V curves are obtained at different prevailing weather conditions, it becomes critical to translate all the measured I-V curves of 30 modules in the string to a single test condition, for example STC (standard test conditions), so the underperforming modules can be identified. The accuracy of translation equations is heavily influenced by the irradiance level and temperature, spectral and AOI ranges; Second limitation - Safety: The second limitation is related to the high voltage electrical safety of the test personnel during disconnecting and reconnecting of individual modules or cable connectors from the string under daylight conditions and damaging of the original module connectors (especially the field aged connectors) during the disconnecting and reconnecting process; Third limitation – Labor: The third limitation is related to the enormous amount of time and hardship for the test personnel under prevailing (often harsh) protracted field conditions. This project was executed by Arizona State University in collaboration with its industry partner, PV Measurements Inc. (PVM). To mitigate all the three challenges of the state-of-the-art equipment indicated above, we utilized a non-contact I-V (NCIV) tracer approach. In this approach, we utilized an electrostatic voltmeter (ESV) and voltage sensor/probe combination to obtain I-V curves. The ESV units are extensively used in the high voltage industry but not in the PV industry. To obtain the simultaneous I-V curves of the substrings and modules within a string, we utilized multiple commercial ESV-Probe sets. In this approach, we utilized a non-contact voltage sensor (called, Probe) placed on the glass surface of the module (above the last cell of the module). This probe senses the module voltage (with respect to ground) through measured capacitance which is dictated by the surface charges (which in turn is dictated by the module voltage) and transmits the sensed voltage to the voltmeter (called, ESV or NCV, non-contact voltmeter). The current is sensed by a non-contact hall sensor. In a 30-module string, the 30th probe obtains the entire string I-V along with the string I-V obtained by the electronic load. so that the I-V curves of the substrings and modules can be obtained by NCIV without the need of disconnecting the individual modules in the string. The string I-V curves obtained by the electronic load and NCIV can be compared for the accuracy determination. One can use 30 ESV units and 30 Probes to obtain 30 I-V curves of a 30-module string or use just 5 ESV units and 30 Probes in conjunction with 5 six-channel switchboxes (called, 6:1 switchboxes). To reduce the equipment cost, we utilized the 6:1 switchbox approach so the number of ESV units is reduced from 30 to 5. The approaches, achievements and challenges of this project are detailed in this report.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

3D isotope density measurements by energy-resolved neutron imaging

Abstract Tools for three-dimensional elemental characterization are available on length scales ranging from individual atoms, using electrons as a probe, to micrometers with X-rays. However, for larger volumes up to millimeters or centimeters, quantitative measurements of elemental or isotope densities were hitherto only possible on the surface. Here, a novel quantitative elemental characterization method based on energy-resolved neutron imaging, utilizing the known neutron absorption cross sections with their ‘finger-print’ absorption resonance signatures, is demonstrated. Enabled by a pixilated time-of-flight neutron transmission detector installed at an intense short-pulsed spallation neutron source, for this demonstration 3.25 million state-of-the-art nuclear physics neutron transmission analyses were conducted to derive isotopic densities for five isotopes in 3D in a volume of 0.25 cm 3 . The tomographic reconstruction of the isotope densities provides elemental maps similar to X-ray microprobe maps for any cross section in the probed volume. The bulk isotopic density of a U-20Pu-10Zr-3Np-2Am nuclear transmutation fuel sample was measured, agrees well with mass-spectrometry and is evidence of the accuracy of the method.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Verification and validation of developed short-term forecasting models

Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies provide an opportunity for leveraging data-driven algorithms to predict future nuclear power plant (NPP) operating conditions by using recorded plant process data. Successfully implementing these models can lead to cost-reducing, conditioned-based predictive maintenance through optimized maintenance schedules and a reduction of unnecessary maintenance activities. This report discusses the verification and validation of short-term forecasting processes (i.e., data cleaning, feature selection, model optimization, and forecasting) developed in previous reports. The verification and validation (V&V) process demonstrates the expected precision and accuracy when the ML model encounters new datasets from different systems. Shapley additive explanations were used as the primary means of feature selection across these different data set. Individual models were trained for each data set, then validated through a cross-validation procedure. In this report, two different ML models were tasked to predict variables from three different plant process data sets with varying prediction horizons. The results indicate that support vector regression (SVR) outperformed long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks in regard to each data set and each prediction horizon in this study, but further tuning and optimization could improve long short-term memory results. However, each forecasting model showed reduced performance as the prediction horizon was extended from 1 hour to 1 day ahead. Research is ongoing to evaluate the optimal input variable space, which is based on a given set of process parameters, to further improve forecasting accuracy.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2023

Accuracy of DFT computed oxygen-vacancy formation energies and high-throughput search of solar thermochemical water-splitting compounds

The enthalpy change involved in metal oxide reduction is a key quantity in various processes related to energy conversion and storage, and is of particular interest for computational prediction. Often this prediction involves the simulation of a high temperature reduction process with a 0K methodology like density functional theory (DFT), and it is not infrequent for the high temperature and 0K stable crystal structures to differ. This introduces a conundrum with regards to the choice of crystal structure to utilize in the computation, with approaches in the literature varying and experimental validation remaining scarce. In this work we address both the crystal structure conundrum and the experimental validation, and then apply the insights we gain to guide a high-throughput search for new materials for solar thermochemical water-splitting applications. By computing the DFT+U oxygen vacancy formation energy (ΔE vf ) of a selection of ABO 3 compounds and comparing different crystal structures for each composition, we highlight the issues that arise when the structure utilized in the computation is dynamically unstable at 0K, namely the presence of an artificial lowering of ΔE vf , and the lack of convergence of ΔE vf with cell size. We solve these limitations by identifying and employing a suitable surrogate dynamically stable structure. We then validate the predictive power of our calculations against appositely generated experimental measurements of reduction enthalpy for a series of Hubbard U values, finding an accuracy ranging between 0.2-0.6 eV/O. In light of such conclusions, we revise and expand a previous a high-throughput DFT study on ABO 3 perovskite oxides. As a result, we provide a list of candidate STCH materials, highlight trends with redox-active cation and structural distortion, and identify Mn 4+ , Mn 3+ and Co 3+ as the most promising redox-active cations.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2026

Correlated purification for restoring 𝑁-representability in quantum simulation

Experimentally measured reduced density matrices (RDMs) often violate constraints that ensure they represent N-electron states—known as N-representability conditions—because of statistical and hardware noise. In this work, we present a correlated purification framework based on semidefinite programming to restore the accuracy of a noisy, unphysical two-electron RDM (2-RDM). The method performs a bi-objective optimization that minimizes both the many-electron energy and the nuclear norm of the correction to the measured 2-RDM. The nuclear norm, often employed in matrix completion, promotes low-rank corrections, while the energy term acts as a regularization term that can improve the purity of the ground state. While the method is particularly effective for ground states, it can also be applied to excited and nonstationary states by decreasing the weight of the energy relative to the error norm. In an application to fermionic shadow tomography of large hydrogen chains, correlated purification yields substantial reductions in both energy and 2-RDM error, achieving chemical accuracy across dissociation curves. This framework provides a robust strategy for tomography in many-body quantum simulations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2023

Count Every Trip: Finding the Uncertainty in Energy Estimates Made from Inferred Travel Modes

To properly inform transport policy and infrastructure changes, transportation related metrics need both measured values and uncertainties of those values. Travel monitoring smartphone apps can record people's travel behavior, but trip data quality is limited by sensor errors, user labeling rates and the accuracy of inference algorithms used for travel diary creation. We discuss the use of phone app recorded travel diary data to estimate energy consumption, and propose the use of propagation of variance to find error bars for such estimates. We define energy consumption for one trip as trip length times the energy intensity per distance unit of the travel mode used. We characterize trip length errors with relative error and inferred trip mode errors with confusion matrix columns. The resulting variances of each measurement are then propagated to the final calculated energy consumption. We tested our uncertainty methods on a dataset that used phone app data combined with prompted recall, consisting of 92,234 labeled trips for over 500,000 miles. Accounting for uncertainty using expected energy intensities and variance propagation gives a dataset-wide aggregate energy consumption percent error of about 9%, within one standard deviation from the truth. Future work could involve applying similar methods to other travel diary based metrics.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,MATHEMATICS AND COMPUT↗

DOE OSTI2023

Count Every Trip: Finding the Uncertainty in Energy Estimates Made from Inferred Travel Modes

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Estimating Travel Energy Consumption Uncertainty Based on Inferred Travel Mode and Sensed Travel Length

To properly inform transport policy and infrastructure changes, transportation related metrics need both measured values and uncertainties of those values. Travel monitoring smartphone apps can record people's travel behavior, but trip data quality is limited by sensor errors, user labeling rates and the accuracy of inference algorithms used for travel diary creation. We discuss the use of phone app recorded travel diary data to estimate energy consumption, and propose the use of propagation of variance to find error bars for such estimates. We define energy consumption for one trip as trip length times the energy intensity per distance unit of the travel mode used. We characterize trip length errors with relative error and inferred trip mode errors with confusion matrix columns. The resulting variances of each measurement are then propagated to the final calculated energy consumption. We tested our uncertainty methods on a dataset that used phone app data combined with prompted recall, consisting of 92,234 labeled trips for over 500,000 miles. Accounting for uncertainty using expected energy intensities and variance propagation gives a dataset-wide aggregate energy consumption percent error of about 8%, within one standard deviation from the truth. Future work could involve applying similar methods to other travel diary based metrics.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗