Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “RADIATION FLUX”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 505 records · Page 28

Radiation Signature Training Device Gamma Equivalent Spheres

Radiation signature training device sources are a continuation of a previous effort to produce a highly enriched uranium equivalent sphere. The original research was designed and motivated to produce a Department of Transportation special form source that emulated the passive gamma signature of a solid metal highly enriched uranium sphere. In addition, the mass reduction (i.e., of the 235 U) minimized logistical costs (security, criticality safety, radiological safety and transportation requirements). Radiation signature training device sources expand on the original concept, redesigning the encapsulation in a modular fashion that allows a variety of loadings. The result is a reconfigurable special nuclear material source set that can vary greatly in the magnitude of the gamma flux and the isotopic distribution. Use of the source to test a variety of standards (N42.34-2015, N42.38-2015, N42.43-2015, N42.53-2018, N42.48-2018, DHS-TCS Backpack Based Radiation Detection Systems, DHS-TCS Handheld Instruments Used for the Detection and Identification of Radionuclides, DHS-TCS Vehicle Mounted Mobile Systems) will be discussed.

Blessinger, Christopher S.↗

Measurement of light-by-light scattering and the Breit-Wheeler process, and search for axion-like particles in ultraperipheral PbPb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV

Measurements of light-by-light scattering (LbL, γγ → γγ) and the Breit-Wheeler process (BW, γγ → e + e − ) are reported in ultraperipheral PbPb collisions at a centre-of-mass energy per nucleon pair of 5.02 TeV. The data sample, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 1.7 nb −1 , was collected by the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC in 2018. Events with an exclusively produced γγ or e + e − pair with invariant masses m γγ,ee > 5 GeV, along with other fiducial criteria, are selected. The measured BW fiducial production cross section, σ fid (γγ → e + e − ) = 263.5 ± 1.8(stat) ± 17.8(syst) μb, as well as the differential distributions for various kinematic observables, are in agreement with leading-order quantum electrodynamics predictions complemented with final-state photon radiation. The measured differential BW cross sections allow discrimination between different theoretical descriptions of the photon flux of the lead ion. In the LbL final state, 26 exclusive diphoton candidate events are observed compared with 12.0 ± 2.9 expected for the background. Combined with previous results, the observed significance of the LbL signal with respect to the background-only hypothesis is above five standard deviations. The measured fiducial LbL scattering cross section, σ fid (γγ → γγ) = 107 ± 24(stat) ± 13(syst) nb, is in agreement with next- to-leading-order predictions. Limits on the production of axion-like particles coupled to photons are set over the mass range 5–100 GeV, including the most stringent limits to date in the range of 5–10 GeV.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Particle Flux Measurements during TRACER (TRACER PFM) (Field Campaign Report)

The purpose of this campaign was to deploy an instrument payload collocated with a suite of in situ and remote-sensing aerosol instruments at the urban site at the La Porte, Texas Municipal Airport during the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) in Houston, Texas. The payload was designed to characterize the physicochemical properties, mixing state, and size-resolved vertical fluxes of aerosols. Deployed aerosol instruments associated with the flux measurements included three condensation particle counters (CPCs) with different lower cutoff diameters ( D > 2.5 nm, D > 10 nm, and D > 40 nm), a single-particle soot photometer (SP2) measuring refractory black carbon, and a portable optical particle spectrometer (POPS) measuring the optical size distribution (~180 nm < D < ~5000 nm). A 10-m flux tower hosted a sonic anemometer (SONIC) for vertical velocity measurements. In addition, a humidified tandem differential mobility analyzer (HTDMA) was deployed to measure the growth factors and hygroscopicity parameter of 15-50 nm-sized particles in order to constrain the composition of compounds responsible for modal aerosol growth during new particle formation/growth events. Finally, a radial differential mobility analyzer (RDMA) was deployed to extend the size distribution measurement to 5 nm.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impacts of Sub‐Grid Topographic Representations on Surface Energy Balance and Boundary Conditions in the E3SM Land Model: A Case Study in Sierra Nevada

Abstract Sub‐grid topographic heterogeneity has large impacts on surface energy balance and land‐atmosphere interactions. However, the impacts of representing sub‐grid topographic effects in land surface models (LSMs) on surface energy balance and boundary conditions remain unclear. This study analyzed and evaluated the impacts of sub‐grid topographic representations on surface energy balance, turbulent heat flux, and scalar (co‐)variances in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). Three sub‐grid topographic representations in ELM were compared: (a) the default sub‐grid structure (D), (b) the recently developed sub‐grid topographic structure (T), and (c) high spatial resolution (1KM). Additionally, two different solar radiation schemes in ELM were compared: (a) the default plane‐parallel radiative transfer scheme (PP) and (b) the parameterization scheme (TOP) that accounts for sub‐grid topographic effects on solar radiation. A series of offline simulations with the three grid discretization structures (D, T, and 1KM) and two schemes of solar radiation (TOP and PP) were carried out using the Sierra Nevada, California. 1KM simulations with TOP well capture the spatial heterogeneity of surface fluxes compared to Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer remote sensing data. There are significant differences between TOP and PP in the 1‐km simulated surface energy balance, but the differences in mean values and standard deviations become small when aggregated to the grid scale (i.e., 0.5°). The T configuration better mimics the 1KM simulations with TOP than the D configuration and better captures the sub‐grid topographic effects on surface energy balance and boundary conditions. These results underline the importance of representing sub‐grid topographic heterogeneities in LSMs and motivate future research to understand the sub‐grid topographic effects on land‐atmosphere interactions over mountainous areas.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Dynamic changes in evapotranspiration, canopy photosynthesis and expansive growth in open field under rapid fluctuating radiation

Abstract In open fields, plants experience dynamic changes in environment, particularly radiation, temperature, wind, and humidity but their short-term responses have not been adequately characterized under natural conditions. In this study, we assessed causal effects of rapid radiation fluctuation on seven plant parameters in open fields of cotton and sweet corn canopies. The parameters are evapotranspiration ( ET ), canopy photosynthesis indicated by CO2 flux from air to canopy ( FCO2 ), sensible heat energy flux ( H ), canopy conductance for water vapor ( gcw ), canopy surface temperature ( Ts ), shoot and leaf elongation rate, and stem diameter change. The energy and CO2 fluxes were measured with Bowen ratio/energy balance/CO2 gradient (BREB+) technique, using averaging time of 5 min. Shoot + leaf elongation and stem diameter change were monitored with position transducers using averaging time of 1 min. All parameters were all found to respond to change in radiation and transpiration within minutes or sooner. While radiation effects on canopy gas exchanges are expected, illuminating are the indirect but immediate effects on shoot + leaf growth and stem diameter change through radiation effects on transpiration and plant water status. A novel finding is that gcw also responded within minutes or sooner to radiation fluctuations and that FCO2 was related almost linearly to gcw . Results are discussed in terms of soil-plant-atmosphere continuum, and interpreted in terms of dynamic interactions between transpiration and plant water status. The clear inverse relationship between ET and elongation rate or stem diameter changes provides additional evidence supporting the validity of 5-min averaging for the BREB + technique.

Hsiao, Theodore C.↗

Observation of a THz-sub-THz spontaneous coherent undulator radiation driven by a low energy electron beam from a thermionic RF electron gun

In this work, we report observations of an intense, multi-band, sub-THz and THz radiation extracted from a similar to 2-3 MeV electron beam with a flat transverse profile propagating in an oversized rectangular waveguide placed into a 3.25 mm gap of a planar undulator having 1.3 cm period and similar to 20 cm length. Radiation outcoupling is accomplished using a horn antenna and a miniature permanent in-vacuum magnet separating the mm-sub-mm-waves and electron beam. A table-top experiment utilizes a radio frequency thermionic electron gun delivering a thousand momentum-chirped microbunches per macropulse and an alpha-magnet producing microbunches of a sub-mm length. Total radiated energy of a sub-millijoule per a microsecond radio frequency macropulse is demonstrated with flux more than ten micro-Joules per centimeter squared. With 1 THz filter the energy measured is about 1 microjoule and flux of a few micro-Joules per centimeter squared.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

A custom high-stability pulse generator for the test of a novel in-situ magnetic sensor developed to detect radiation damage in undulators

High-performance analog-to-digital converters (ADC) have been widely applied in many areas of science. For instance, magnetic field measurements based on the Faraday’s induction law require high-precision voltmeters to measure induced voltages. In this study in the context of free-electron lasers technology, the Magnetic Measurements Team at SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory proposed a novel in-situ radiation damage detection system (RDDS) for detecting small field variations in undulators. The system measures the flux change in a flexible printed-circuit coil attached to the magnet array during the undulator gap movement. The gap movement changes the magnetic field, which induces a voltage signal in the coil that is measured and integrated with an ADC. Although the system is capable of detecting relative flux changes better than 100 ppm, drift in the ADC’s gain or offset can cause apparent changes in the relative flux. This paper describes the first attempt to developed a high-precision verification circuit to perform ADC testing in the framework of the novel RDDS. The circuit generates a reference voltage pulse with a voltage–time integral relative precision better than 50 ppm for a few hundreds of mVs — the typical order of magnitude measured with the RDDS. The circuit’s design combines a fast and precise switch with a low-noise voltage reference. Long-term measurements allowed statistical analysis and showed that averaging the voltage–time integral of ten pulses gives the required 50 ppm stability. Moreover, reproducibility tests confirmed that the circuit’s output is invariable under small power supply instabilities and equipment shutdown. Instruments and applications designed to quantify the magnetic field by integrating voltage signals may use the pulse generator proposed in this paper for verification purposes.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Sensitivity of Regional WRF‐Chem Air Quality and Weather Simulations to Biomass‐Burning Emission Data Sets: A Case Study of the Impact of Canadian Wildfire on the US°

This study focuses on the period from June 26 to 29, 2023, when record‐breaking Canadian wildfires severely impacted air quality in the Midwest United States. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Chemistry (WRF‐Chem) and four biomass‐burning data sets (Fire Inventory from NCAR version 1, Fire Inventory from NCAR version 2.5, Quick Fire Emissions Data set [QFED], and Regional ABI‐VIIRS Emission), we analyzed aerosol transport from Canada to the US and assessed the model's accuracy in predicting PM 2.5 , O 3 , CO and aerosol weather feedback. Model simulations were compared with ground‐based and remote sensing observations as well as field measurements from the Community Research on Climate and Urban Science (CROCUS) project. Our findings show that the movement of a low‐pressure system from the Great Lakes to the Atlantic, combined with the high‐pressure system over the Atlantic, caused the transport of aerosols from Canadian wildfires to the US. Results show WRF‐Chem significantly underestimated key atmospheric components: aerosol optical depth (AOD) by over 50%, PM 2.5 by 65%–90% and peak O 3 concentrations by 50%–55% across four biomass burning data sets. Additionally, CO and NO 2 concentrations were underpredicted. The substantial underestimation of PM 2.5 led to an overestimation of temperature by up to 3.6 °C primarily due to excessive downward shortwave radiation, which resulted from the underestimation of direct aerosol effects and an increase in sensible heat flux. Among the biomass‐burning data sets, QFED produced the most accurate AOD and PM 2.5 predictions due to improved wildfire emission estimates, leading to a 1.0 to 1.5 °C reduction in temperature overestimation during the daytime. These findings underscore the need for improving wildfire emission estimates for trace gases and aerosols to enhance air quality and weather feedback predictions.

WRF-chem model↗

Simultaneous observations of the blazar PKS 2155-304 from ultra-violet to TeV energies

Here we report the results of the first ever contemporaneous multi-wavelength observation campaign on the BL Lac object PKS 2155−304 involving Swift , NuSTAR , Fermi -LAT, and H.E.S.S. The use of these instruments allows us to cover a broad energy range, which is important for disentangling the different radiative mechanisms. The source, observed from June 2013 to October 2013, was found in a low flux state with respect to previous observations but exhibited highly significant flux variability in the X-rays. The high-energy end of the synchrotron spectrum can be traced up to 40 keV without significant contamination by high-energy emission. A one-zone synchrotron self-Compton model was used to reproduce the broadband flux of the source for all the observations presented here but failed for previous observations made in April 2013. A lepto-hadronic solution was then explored to explain these earlier observational results.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Impact of Temperature and Optical Error on the Combined Optical and Thermal Efficiency of Solar Tower Systems for Industrial Process Heat: Preprint

Concentrating solar thermal (CST) power towers can provide high flux concentrations at commercial scale. As a result, CST towers exhibit potential for high-temperature solar industrial process heat (SIPH) applications. However, at higher operating temperatures, thermal radiation losses can be significant. This study explores the trade-off between thermal and optical losses for SIPH applications using a collection of three case studies at operating temperatures that range from 900-1,550 degrees C. We assume blackbody radiation to represent the thermal losses at the receiver and we use ray tracing to estimate the optical losses. The results show the impact of process temperature on the maximum attainable system efficiency, as well as the higher flux concentration requirements as the temperature increases.

concentrating solar power↗

Evaporation due to infrared heating and natural convection

The results obtained from a drying experiment under infrared heating are compared to those obtained from correlations for the mass transfer coefficients, which are commonly used to obtain evaporation rates for drying applications. It was shown that the mass transfer coefficients evaluated by natural convection correlations are approximately ten times lower than those measured under infrared (IR) exposure. In this work, an attempt to explain this discrepancy, which has been also observed in other studies and explained on the basis of thermal radiation effects, optical properties of NMP are presented and the implications of the IR and near infrared (NIR) spectrum on the thermal radiation effects and ensuing evaporation rates are discussed. The results show that expected raise in the film temperature, which would be due to the thermal radiation effects, cannot be used to describe the measured evaporation rates for this solvent. Therefore, this study provides important evaporation mass flux data, which cannot be predicted using traditional correlations, for the design of IR assisted drying systems used in membrane fabrication.

42 ENGINEERING↗

General relativistic MHD simulations of non-thermal flaring in Sagittarius A*

Sgr A* exhibits regular variability in its multiwavelength emission, including daily X-ray flares and roughly continuous near-infrared (NIR) flickering. The origin of this variability is still ambiguous since both inverse Compton and synchrotron emission are possible radiative mechanisms. The underlying particle distributions are also not well constrained, particularly the non-thermal contribution. In this work, we employ the GPU-accelerated general relativistic magnetohydrodynamics code H-AMR to perform a study of flare flux distributions, including the effect of particle acceleration for the first time in high-resolution 3D simulations of Sgr A*. For the particle acceleration, we use the general relativistic ray-tracing code bhoss to perform the radiative transfer, assuming a hybrid thermal+non-thermal electron energy distribution. We extract ~60 h light curves in the sub-millimetre, NIR and X-ray wavebands, and compare the power spectra and the cumulative flux distributions of the light curves to statistical descriptions for Sgr A* flares. Our results indicate that non-thermal populations of electrons arising from turbulence-driven reconnection in weakly magnetized accretion flows lead to moderate NIR and X-ray flares and reasonably describe the X-ray flux distribution while fulfilling multiwavelength flux constraints. These models exhibit high rms per cent amplitudes, $\gtrsim 150{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ both in the NIR and the X-rays, with changes in the accretion rate driving the 230 GHz flux variability, in agreement with Sgr A* observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Testing and Characterization to Develop a Mechanistic Explanation for Unsaturated Drift of Fiber Optic Sensors during High-Dose Irradiation

The primary limitation for any optical fiber-based sensor for nuclear reactor applications is radiation-induced attenuation (RIA) of the transmitted and/or reflected signals. Based on several recent studies, RIA is tolerable for some fused silica optical fibers with the proper choice of sensing wavelength and fiber dopants. For extreme temperature applications (> 1000°C), sapphire optical fibers have been proposed; however, recent optical transmission measurements performed on bulk sapphire samples showed prohibitively large RIA. For some sensors, radiation-induced dimensional changes in the fiber materials can also cause significant drift. Moreover, the drift that was observed in numerous experiments performed in the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR), the Advanced Test Reactor, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Reactor, and other international facilities far exceeded what would be expected based on compaction of fused silica glass. Clearly, additional work is needed to better understand the origins of both RIA and radiation-induced drift in both silica and sapphire optical fiber-based sensors before these sensors can be reliably deployed for nuclear applications. This work evaluated the underlying mechanisms that may be responsible for RIA and drift in silica and sapphire materials. First, detailed characterization was performed on bulk fused silica glass samples that were previously irradiated to different neutron fluences at different temperatures to better understand the structural changes that drive radiation-induced drift in the absence of coating effects that are discussed later. Results show that the non-monotonic compaction that occurs with increasing neutron fluence continues up to fast neutron fluences approaching 10 22 n/cm 2 , which has important implications for physics-based models that may be used to compensate for the sensor drift. Initial Raman spectroscopy and synchrotron x-ray diffraction provide insights into the nature of the structural changes. Next, detailed characterizations were performed on silica fibers with various coatings that were subjected to several different thermal treatments. The hypothesis is that the coatings convert to carbon-rich materials that compact under irradiation, putting a large compressive strain on the fiber. Out-of-pile testing confirms that both polyimide and acrylate fiber coatings convert to glassy carbon (GC) materials when heated under inert conditions, and the degree of order (i.e., graphitization) increases with increasing temperature. The results provide increasingly strong evidence that the combination of polymeric coatings and inert (or vacuum) conditions render fiber optic sensors susceptible to significant radiation-induced drift that would not otherwise exist in uncoated fibers. Finally, transmission electron microscopy was performed on bulk sapphire samples that were irradiated to two neutron fluences at different temperatures to gain insights into the potential mechanisms driving the prohibitive RIA at higher neutron fluences and temperatures. Contrary to previous hypotheses, results show that scattering from radiation-induced voids cannot explain the observed RIA. Similarly, models for scattering losses from dislocation loops also do not agree with the experimental results. Instead, fitting to the experimental data shows that increased absorption from aluminum vacancy centers is the most likely explanation for the the prohibitively large RIA that was observed at high irradiation temperature and dose. In addition, the voids that formed in these single-crystal samples were found to align along the basal plane (a-axis) as opposed to that seen in previous observations of c-axis alignment in polycrystalline samples, which could have important implications for anisotropic swelling and other phenomena that could affect sensor performance at high neutron fluence.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Testing and Characterization to Develop a Mechanistic Explanation for Unsaturated Drift of Fiber Optic Sensors during High-Dose Irradiation

The primary limitation for any optical fiber-based sensor for nuclear reactor applications is radiation-induced attenuation (RIA) of the transmitted and/or reflected signals. Based on several recent studies, RIA is tolerable for some fused silica optical fibers with the proper choice of sensing wavelength and fiber dopants. For extreme temperature applications (> 1000°C), sapphire optical fibers have been proposed; however, recent optical transmission measurements performed on bulk sapphire samples showed prohibitively large RIA. For some sensors, radiation-induced dimensional changes in the fiber materials can also cause significant drift. Moreover, the drift that was observed in numerous experiments performed in the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR), the Advanced Test Reactor, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Reactor, and other international facilities far exceeded what would be expected based on compaction of fused silica glass. Clearly, additional work is needed to better understand the origins of both RIA and radiation-induced drift in both silica and sapphire optical fiber-based sensors before these sensors can be reliably deployed for nuclear applications. This work evaluated the underlying mechanisms that may be responsible for RIA and drift in silica and sapphire materials. First, detailed characterization was performed on bulk fused silica glass samples that were previously irradiated to different neutron fluences at different temperatures to better understand the structural changes that drive radiation-induced drift in the absence of coating effects that are discussed later. Results show that the non-monotonic compaction that occurs with increasing neutron fluence continues up to fast neutron fluences approaching 10 22 n/cm 2 , which has important implications for physics-based models that may be used to compensate for the sensor drift. Initial Raman spectroscopy and synchrotron x-ray diffraction provide insights into the nature of the structural changes. Next, detailed characterizations were performed on silica fibers with various coatings that were subjected to several different thermal treatments. The hypothesis is that the coatings convert to carbon-rich materials that compact under irradiation, putting a large compressive strain on the fiber. Out-of-pile testing confirms that both polyimide and acrylate fiber coatings convert to glassy carbon (GC) materials when heated under inert conditions, and the degree of order (i.e., graphitization) increases with increasing temperature. The results provide increasingly strong evidence that the combination of polymeric coatings and inert (or vacuum) conditions render fiber optic sensors susceptible to significant radiation-induced drift that would not otherwise exist in uncoated fibers. Finally, transmission electron microscopy was performed on bulk sapphire samples that were irradiated to two neutron fluences at different temperatures to gain insights into the potential mechanisms driving the prohibitive RIA at higher neutron fluences and temperatures. Contrary to previous hypotheses, results show that scattering from radiation-induced voids cannot explain the observed RIA. Similarly, models for scattering losses from dislocation loops also do not agree with the experimental results. Instead, fitting to the experimental data shows that increased absorption from aluminum vacancy centers is the most likely explanation for the the prohibitively large RIA that was observed at high irradiation temperature and dose. In addition, the voids that formed in these single-crystal samples were found to align along the basal plane (a-axis) as opposed to that seen in previous observations of c-axis alignment in polycrystalline samples, which could have important implications for anisotropic swelling and other phenomena that could affect sensor performance at high neutron fluence.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Differentiating Between Simultaneous Loss Drivers in Earth's Outer Radiation Belt: Multi‐Dimensional Phase Space Density Analysis

Abstract We analyzed the contribution of electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) wave driven electron loss to a flux dropout event in September 2017. The evolution of electron phase space density (PSD) through the dropout showed the formation of a radially peaked PSD profile as electrons were lost at high L* , resembling distributions created by magnetopause shadowing. By comparing 2D Fokker Planck simulations of pitch angle diffusion to the observed change in PSD, we found that the μ and K of electron loss aligned with maximum scattering rates at dropout onset. We conclude that, during this dropout event, EMIC waves produced substantial electron loss. Because pitch angle diffusion occurred on closed drift paths near the last closed drift shell, no radial PSD minimum was observed. Therefore, the radial PSD gradients resembled solely magnetopause shadowing loss, even though the local pitch angle scattering produced electron losses of several orders of magnitude of the PSD.

Staples, F. A.↗

Violating Kirchhoff’s Law of Thermal Radiation in Semitransparent Structures

Kirchhoff’s law of thermal radiation imposes a constraint on photon-based energy harvesting processes since part of the incident energy flux is inevitably emitted back to the source. By breaking the reciprocity of the system, it is possible to overcome this restriction and improve the efficiency of energy harvesting. Here, we design and analyze a semitransparent emitter that fully absorbs normally incident energy from a given direction with zero backward and unity forward emissivity. The nearly ideal performance with wavelength-scale thickness is achieved due to the magneto-optical effect and the guided-mode resonance engineered in the emitter structure. We derive the general requirements for the nonreciprocal emitter using the temporal coupled mode theory and the symmetry considerations. As a result, we provide a realistic emitter design based on a photonic crystal slab consisting of a magnetic Weyl semimetal and silicon.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

PreMevE Update: Forecasting Ultra-Relativistic Electrons Inside Earth's Outer Radiation Belt

Energetic electrons inside Earth's Van Allen belts pose a major radiation threat to spaceborne electronics that often play vital roles in modern society. Ultra-relativistic electrons with energies greater than or equal to two megaelectron-volt (MeV) are of particular interest, and thus forecasting these ≥2 MeV electrons has a significant meaning to all space sectors. Here, we update the latest development of the predictive model for MeV electrons in the outer radiation belt. The new version, called PREdictive MEV Electron (PreMevE)-2E, forecasts ultra-relativistic electron flux distributions across the outer belt, with no need for in situ measurements of the trapped MeV electron population except at the geosynchronous orbit (GEO). Model inputs include precipitating electrons observed in low-Earthorbits by NOAA satellites, upstream solar wind speeds and densities from solar wind monitors, as well as ultra-relativistic electrons measured by one Los Alamos GEO satellite. We evaluated 32 supervised machine learning models that fall into four different classes of linear and neural network architectures, and successfully tested ensemble forecasting by using groups of top-performing models. All models are individually trained, validated, and tested by in situ electron data from NASA's Van Allen Probes mission. It is shown that the final ensemble model outperforms individual models at most L-shells, and this PreMevE-2E model can provide 25-h (~1-day) and 50-h (~2-day) forecasts with high mean performance efficiency and correlation values. Our results also suggest that this new model is dominated by nonlinear components at L-shells <~4 for ultra-relativistic electrons, different from the dominance of linear components for 1 MeV electrons as previously discovered.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Advances in physics understanding of high poloidal beta regime toward steady-state operation of CFETR

Experimental and modeling investigations of the high βp scenarios on the DIII-D and EAST tokamaks show advantages in high energy confinement, avoidance of n = 1 MHD, and core-edge integration with reduced heat flux, making this scenario an attractive option for CFETR steady-state operation. Experiments show that plasmas with high confinement and high density can be achieved with neutral beam injection on DIII-D (β p ~ 2.2, β N ~ 3.5, f BS ~ 50%, f Gw ~ 1.0, H 98y2 ~ 1.5) and pure RF power on EAST (β P ~ 2.0, β N ~ 1.6, f BS ~ 50%, f Gw ~ 0.8, H 98y2 > 1.3). By tailoring the current density profile, a q-profile with local (off-axis) negative shear is achieved that yields improved confinement and MHD stability. Transport analysis and simulation suggest that the combination of high density gradient and high Shafranov shift allows turbulence stabilization and higher confinement. Using on-axis ECH injection, tungsten accumulation is avoided on EAST, and this is reproduced in modeling. Reduced heat flux (by >40%) and maintenance of high core confinement is achieved with active feedback control of the radiated divertor, an important result for long pulse operation in tokamaks. In conclusion, the improved physics understanding and validated modeling tools are used to design a 1GW steady-state scenario for CFETR.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗