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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2003

Laboratory Characterization and Modeling of a Near-Infrared Enhanced Photomultiplier Tube

The photon-starved channel for optical communications from deep space requires the development of detector technology that can achieve photon-counting sensitivities with high bandwidth. In this article, a near-infrared enhanced photomultiplier tube (PMT) with a quantum e.ciency of 0.08 at a 1.06- m wavelength is characterized in the laboratory. A Polya distribution model is used to compute the probability distribution function of the emitted secondary photoelectrons from the PMT. The model is compared with measured pulse-height distributions with reasonable agreement. The model accounts for realistic device parameters, such as the individual dynode stage gains and a shape parameter that is representative of the spatial uniformity of response across the photocathode and dynodes. Bit-error rate (BER) measurements also are presented for 4- and 8-pulse-position modulation (PPM) modulation schemes with data rates of 20 to 30 Mb/s. A BER of 10-2 is obtained for a mean of 8 detected photons.

Biswas, A.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Analytical Algorithms to Quantify the Uncertainty in Remaining Useful Life Prediction

This paper investigates the use of analytical algorithms to quantify the uncertainty in the remaining useful life (RUL) estimate of components used in aerospace applications. The prediction of RUL is affected by several sources of uncertainty and it is important to systematically quantify their combined effect by computing the uncertainty in the RUL prediction in order to aid risk assessment, risk mitigation, and decisionmaking. While sampling-based algorithms have been conventionally used for quantifying the uncertainty in RUL, analytical algorithms are computationally cheaper and sometimes, are better suited for online decision-making. While exact analytical algorithms are available only for certain special cases (for e.g., linear models with Gaussian variables), effective approximations can be made using the the first-order second moment method (FOSM), the first-order reliability method (FORM), and the inverse first-order reliability method (Inverse FORM). These methods can be used not only to calculate the entire probability distribution of RUL but also to obtain probability bounds on RUL. This paper explains these three methods in detail and illustrates them using the state-space model of a lithium-ion battery.

Sankararaman, Shankar↗
DOE OSTI2025

Conditional Pseudo-Reversible Normalizing Flow for Surrogate Modeling in Quantifying Uncertainty Propagation

We introduce a conditional pseudo-reversible normalizing flow (PR-NF) that directly learns conditional probability distributions from noisy physical models to efficiently quantify both forward and inverse uncertainty propagation. Traditional surrogate modeling approaches approximate only the deterministic component of physical models, requiring separate noise characterization and computationally expensive sampling methods for inverse problems. Here, in this work, we develop the conditional PR-NF model to directly learn and efficiently generate samples from the conditional probability density functions (PDFs). The training process utilizes dataset consisting of input-output pairs without requiring prior knowledge about the noise and the function. Once trained, our model efficiently generates samples from conditional PDFs for any input within the training domain. Moreover, the pseudo-reversibility feature allows for the use of fully connected neural network architectures, which simplifies the implementation and enables theoretical analysis. We provide a rigorous convergence analysis of the conditional PR-NF model, showing its ability to converge to the target conditional PDF using the Kullback−Leibler divergence. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, we apply it to several benchmark tests and a real-world geologic carbon storage problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2008

Potential Use of a Bayesian Network for Discriminating Flash Type from Future GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) data

Continuous monitoring of the ratio of cloud flashes to ground flashes may provide a better understanding of thunderstorm dynamics, intensification, and evolution, and it may be useful in severe weather warning. The National Lighting Detection Network TM (NLDN) senses ground flashes with exceptional detection efficiency and accuracy over most of the continental United States. A proposed Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) aboard the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) will look at the western hemisphere, and among the lightning data products to be made available will be the fundamental optical flash parameters for both cloud and ground flashes: radiance, area, duration, number of optical groups, and number of optical events. Previous studies have demonstrated that the optical flash parameter statistics of ground and cloud lightning, which are observable from space, are significantly different. This study investigates a Bayesian network methodology for discriminating lightning flash type (ground or cloud) using the lightning optical data and ancillary GOES-R data. A Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) is set up with lightning as a "root" and data observed by GLM as the "leaves." This allows for a direct calculation of the joint probability distribution function for the lighting type and radiance, area, etc. Initially, the conditional probabilities that will be required can be estimated from the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) together with NLDN data. Directly manipulating the joint distribution will yield the conditional probability that a lightning flash is a ground flash given the evidence, which consists of the observed lightning optical data [and possibly cloud data retrieved from the GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) in a more mature Bayesian network configuration]. Later, actual GLM and NLDN data can be used to refine the estimates of the conditional probabilities used in the model; i.e., the Bayesian network is a learning network. Methods for efficient calculation of the conditional probabilities (e.g., an algorithm using junction trees), finding data conflicts, goodness of fit, and dealing with missing data will also be addressed.

Solakiewiz, Richard↗
DOE OSTI2019

Hierarchical Bayesian estimation for adsorption isotherm parameter determination

Estimation of isotherm model parameters from experimental data is necessary in adsorption process modeling. To facilitate isotherm modeling, databases that store experimental data exist. Nevertheless, data inconsistency among different researchers must be resolved to find a single set of isotherm parameters from multiple data sets. Herein, we propose a hierarchical Bayesian estimation method to quantify the discrepancy by a multiplicative factor while simultaneously obtaining the probability distributions of a single set of isotherm parameters. This approach also allows us to identify outliers, which are data sets that are not in agreement with other sets. The proposed approach is demonstrated for the case of CO 2 adsorption in the metal-organic framework UiO-66.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bridging molecular-scale interfacial science with continuum-scale models

Solid–water interfaces are crucial for clean water, conventional and renewable energy, and effective nuclear waste management. However, reflecting the complexity of reactive interfaces in continuum-scale models is a challenge, leading to oversimplified representations that often fail to predict real-world behavior. This is because these models use fixed parameters derived by averaging across a wide physicochemical range observed at the molecular scale. Recent studies have revealed the stochastic nature of molecular-level surface sites that define a variety of reaction mechanisms, rates, and products even across a single surface. To bridge the molecular knowledge and predictive continuum-scale models, we propose to represent surface properties with probability distributions rather than with discrete constant values derived by averaging across a heterogeneous surface. This conceptual shift in continuum-scale modeling requires exponentially rising computational power. By incorporating our molecular-scale understanding of solid–water interfaces into continuum-scale models we can pave the way for next generation critical technologies and novel environmental solutions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Deep Generative Model for Non-Intrusive Identification of EV Charging Profiles

The proliferation of electric vehicles (EVs) brings environmental benefits and technical challenges to power grids. An identification algorithm which can accurately extract individual EV charging profiles out of widely available smart meter measurements has attracted great interests. This paper proposes a non-intrusive identification framework for EV charging profile extraction, which is driven by deep generative models (DGM). First, the proposed DGM is designed as a representation layer embedded into the Markov process and used to model the joint probability distribution of available time-series data. A novel contribution is to approximate posterior distributions by neural networks whose parameters are obtained by variational inference and supervised learning. Second, the EV charging status is inferred from the DGM via dynamic programming. Lastly, the desired EV charging profile can be reconstructed by the rated power of EV models and inferred status. Compared with the benchmark Hidden Markov Models, the proposed framework can better handle noise in data with less computational complexity and better overall accuracy performances with smaller recall. The proposed framework is validated by numerical experiments on the Pecan Street dataset.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uranium particle age dating, aggregation, and model age best estimators

We present important aspects of uranium particle age dating by Large-Geometry Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry (LG-SIMS) that can introduce bias and increase model age uncertainties, especially for small, young, and/or low-enriched particles. This metrology is important for applications related to International Nuclear Safeguards. We explore influential factors related to model age estimation, including the effects of evolving surface chemistry on inter-element measurements of particles (e.g., Th and U), detector background, and aggregation methods using simulated and actual particle samples. We introduce a new model age estimator, called “mid68”, that supplements 95% confidence intervals, providing a “best estimate” and uncertainty about the most likely age. The mid68 estimator can be calculated using the Feldman and Cousins method or Bayesian methods and provides a value with a symmetric uncertainty that can be used for calculations and approximate aggregation of processed model age values when the raw data and correction factors are not available. For particles yielding low 230 Th counts amidst nonzero detector background, their underlying model age probability distributions are asymmetric, so the mid68 estimator provides additional robust information regarding the underlying model age likelihood. This study provides a comprehensive and timely examination of critical aspects of uranium particle age dating as more laboratories establish particle chronometry capabilities.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2012

Propagation of data error and parametric sensitivity in computable general equilibrium model.

While computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are a well-established tool in economic analyses, it is often difficult to disentangle the effects of policies of interest from that of the assumptions made regarding the underlying calibration data and model parameters. To characterize the behavior of a CGE model of carbon output with respect to two of these assumptions, we perform a large-scale Monte Carlo experiment to examine its sensitivity to base year calibration data and elasticity of substitution parameters in the absence of a policy change. By examining a variety of output variables at different levels of economic and geographic aggregation, we assess how these forms of uncertainty impact the conclusions that can be drawn from the model simulations. We find greater sensitivity to uncertainty in the elasticity of substitution parameters than to uncertainty in the base-year data as the projection period increases. While many model simulations were conducted to generate large output samples, we find that few are required to capture the mean model response of the variables tested. However, characterizing standard errors and empirical probability distribution functions is not possible without a large number of simulations.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Three paths toward the quantum angle operator

We examine mathematical questions around angle (or phase) operator associated with a number operator through a short list of basic requirements. We implement three methods of construction of quantum angle. The first one is based on operator theory and parallels the definition of angle for the upper half-circle through its cosine and completed by a sign inversion. The two other methods are integral quantization generalizing in a certain sense the Berezin–Klauder approaches. One method pertains to Weyl–Heisenberg integral quantization of the plane viewed as the phase space of the motion on the line. It depends on a family of “weight” functions on the plane. The third method rests upon coherent state quantization of the cylinder viewed as the phase space of the motion on the circle. The construction of these coherent states depends on a family of probability distributions on the line.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Identifying and tracking bubbles and drops in simulations: A toolbox for obtaining sizes, lineages, and breakup and coalescence statistics

Knowledge of bubble and drop size distributions in two-phase flows is important for characterizing a wide range of phenomena, including combustor ignition, sonar communication, and cloud formation. The physical mechanisms driving the background flow also drive the time evolution of these distributions. Accurate and robust identification and tracking algorithms for the dispersed phase are necessary to reliably measure this evolution and thereby quantify the underlying mechanisms in interface-resolving flow simulations. The identification of individual bubbles and drops traditionally relies on an algorithm used to identify connected regions. This traditional algorithm can be sensitive to the presence of spurious structures. A cost-effective refinement is proposed to maximize volume accuracy while minimizing the identification of spurious bubbles and drops. An accurate identification scheme is crucial for distinguishing bubble and drop pairs with large size ratios. The identified bubbles and drops need to be tracked in time to obtain breakup and coalescence statistics that characterize the evolution of the size distribution, including breakup and coalescence frequencies, and the probability distributions of parent and child bubble and drop sizes. An algorithm based on mass conservation is proposed to construct bubble and drop lineages using simulation snapshots that are not necessarily from consecutive time steps. These lineages are then used to detect breakup and coalescence events, and obtain the desired statistics. Accurate identification of large-size-ratio bubble and drop pairs enables accurate detection of breakup and coalescence events over a large size range. Accurate detection of successive breakup and coalescence events requires that the snapshot interval be an order of magnitude smaller than the characteristic breakup and coalescence times to capture these successive events while minimizing the identification of repeated confounding events. Together, these algorithms serve as a toolbox for detailed analysis of two-phase simulations, and enable insights into the mechanisms behind bubble and drop formation and evolution in flows of practical importance.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2016

On a stochastic approach to a code performance estimation

The main goal of an efficient profiling of software is to minimize the runtime overhead under certain constraints and requirements. The traces built by a profiler during the work, affect the performance of the system itself. One of important aspect of an overhead arises from the randomness of variability in the context in which the application is embedded, e.g., due to possible cache misses, etc. Such uncertainty needs to be taken into account in the design phase. In order to overcome these difficulties we propose to investigate this issue through the analysis of the probability distribution of the difference between profiler’s times for the same code. The approximating model is based on the finite normal mixtures within the framework of the method of moving separation of mixtures. We demonstrate some results for the MATLAB profiler using plotting of 3D surfaces by the function surf. The idea can be used for an estimating of a program efficiency.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2014

TURBULENCE SETS THE INITIAL CONDITIONS FOR STAR FORMATION IN HIGH-PRESSURE ENVIRONMENTS

Despite the simplicity of theoretical models of supersonically turbulent, isothermal media, their predictions successfully match the observed gas structure and star formation activity within low-pressure (P/k < 10{sup 5} K cm{sup –3}) molecular clouds in the solar neighborhood. However, it is unknown whether or not these theories extend to clouds in high-pressure (P/k > 10{sup 7} K cm{sup –3}) environments, like those in the Galaxy's inner 200 pc central molecular zone (CMZ) and in the early universe. Here, we present Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array 3 mm dust continuum emission within a cloud, G0.253+0.016, which is immersed in the high-pressure environment of the CMZ. While the log-normal shape and dispersion of its column density probability distribution function (PDF) are strikingly similar to those of solar neighborhood clouds, there is one important quantitative difference: its mean column density is one to two orders of magnitude higher. Both the similarity and difference in the PDF compared to those derived from solar neighborhood clouds match predictions of turbulent cloud models given the high-pressure environment of the CMZ. The PDF shows a small deviation from log-normal at high column densities confirming the youth of G0.253+0.016. Its lack of star formation is consistent with the theoretically predicted, environmentally dependent volume density threshold for star formation which is orders of magnitude higher than that derived for solar neighborhood clouds. Our results provide the first empirical evidence that the current theoretical understanding of molecular cloud structure derived from the solar neighborhood also holds in high-pressure environments. We therefore suggest that these theories may be applicable to understand star formation in the early universe.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Convective Transition Statistics over Tropical Oceans for Climate Model Diagnostics: Observational Baseline

Convective transition statistics, which describe the relation between column-integrated water vapor (CWV) and precipitation, are compiled over tropical oceans using satellite and ARM site measurements to quantify the temperature and resolution dependence of the precipitation–CWV relation at fast time scales relevant to convection. At these time scales, and for precipitation especially, uncertainties associated with observational systems must be addressed by examining features with a variety of instrumentation and identifying robust behaviors versus instrument sensitivity at high rain rates. Here the sharp pickup in precipitation as CWV exceeds a certain critical threshold is found to be insensitive to spatial resolution, with convective onset occurring at higher CWV but at lower column relative humidity as bulk tropospheric temperature increases. Mean tropospheric temperature profiles conditioned on precipitation show vertically coherent structure across a wide range of temperature, reaffirming the use of a bulk temperature measure in defining the convective transition statistics. The joint probability distribution of CWV and precipitation develops a peak probability at low precipitation for CWV above critical, with rapidly decreasing probability of high precipitation below and near critical, and exhibits systematic changes under spatial averaging. The precipitation pickup with CWV is reasonably insensitive to time averaging up to several hours but is smoothed at daily time scales. This work demonstrates that CWV relative to critical serves as an effective predictor of precipitation with only minor geographic variations in the tropics, quantifies precipitation-related statistics subject to different spatial–temporal resolution, and provides a baseline for model comparison to apply these statistics as observational constraints on precipitation processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Value-of-Information Analysis of a Fracture Prediction Method

A core-based fracture prediction method is used to illustrate a Value of Information (VOI) decision-analysis protocol to inform completion decisions in tight-gas sandstones. The ratio of late host-rock cement to available pore volume or degradation index uses petrographic observations of cement distributions in core (including sidewall cores) to predict whether nearby but unsampled fractures (widths > 0.5 to 1 mm) are sealed (non-conductive) or open (conductive). Measurements from four sandstone plays suggest that the index correctly predicts open vs. sealed fractures with an accuracy in excess of 80%. The value added is calculated using Bayesian inference in which accuracy of the index serves as the likelihood of the prior distribution of open fractures to assess the posterior probability that data represent a useful predictor of producibility. VOI of the prediction method is more than three times the cost to acquire the data. VOI is most sensitive to play-specific geologic and cost parameters including cost to drill, expected revenue from a successful well, cost of completion, cost of acquiring data for the index, and fracture probability distributions. The approach provides a way to value acquiring fracture data and points to a need for zone-specific production data in tight-gas sandstones.

02 PETROLEUM↗
NASA NTRS1975

A Practical Statistical Model for Telecommunications Performance Uncertainty

A statistical method, the probability distribution method, is presented which will give the probability of link performance values. The advantages of a design control procedure are preserved and optimum use of the system capabilities is permitted by improving the accuracy and completeness of the system model.

Yuen, J. H.↗