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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Resilience assessment and planning in power distribution systems: Past and future considerations

High impact low probability (HILP) events such as hurricanes, heat waves, and floods have instigated widespread power outages and blackouts around the globe in the past decade. With the increasing challenges concerning the threats to the power distribution systems and the growing need to mitigate the impacts of the HILP events, resilience has become a crucial requirement for the power grid infrastructures. Numerous efforts have been made to define, measure, and characterize the resilience of power distribution systems. This study thoroughly reviews the state-of-the-art methods on the existing resilience evaluation framework and metrics. Here, the desirable characteristics of resilience metrics are highlighted, and the challenges associated with formulating, developing, and calculating such metrics are discussed. Next, we detail the state-of-the-art literature on planning solutions to ensure distribution system resilience. This paper aims to extract a deep insight into this challenging and critical research area and envision future opportunities that can guide the power distribution system operators/planners to formulate more effective mitigation strategies to enhance the resilience of power distribution systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

New Measurements of the Deuteron-to-Proton 𝐹 2 Structure-Function Ratio

Nucleon structure functions, as measured in lepton-nucleon scattering, have historically provided a critical observable in the study of partonic dynamics within the nucleon. However, at very large parton momenta, it is both experimentally and theoretically challenging to extract parton distributions due to the probable onset of nonperturbative contributions and the unavailability of high-precision data at critical kinematics. Extraction of the neutron structure and the d quark distribution have been further challenging because of the necessity of applying nuclear corrections when utilizing scattering data from a deuteron target to extract the free neutron structure. However, a program of experiments has been carried out recently at the energy-upgraded Jefferson Lab electron accelerator aimed at significantly reducing the nuclear correction uncertainties on the d quark distribution function at large partonic momentum. This allows leveraging the vast body of deuterium data covering a large kinematic range to be utilized for d quark parton distribution function extraction. In this Letter, we present new data from experiment E12-10-002, carried out in Jefferson Lab Experimental Hall C, on the deuteron to proton cross section ratio at large Bjorken 𝑥. These results significantly improve the precision of existing data and provide a first look at the expected impact on quark distributions extracted from parton distribution function fits.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating Space Object Conjunction Probabilities Using Characteristic Function Inversion

This report discusses an approach to computing the probability of a conjunction between two space objects in the short-term encounter scenario. A conjunction is defined here as an event where the miss distance between the objects is less than some specified value. The scenario assumptions are that the motion of the objects is linear, their positions are Gaussian distributed, and their velocities are known and constant. Under these assumptions, the squared-miss distance is shown to have the generalized chi-square distribution. An established statistical technique called characteristic function inversion is employed to evaluate the distribution and obtain conjunction probabilities. The method is closely related to a recent approach based on moment generating function inversion, and a qualitative comparison of the approaches is provided. Last, the method is tested on several benchmark test cases where it agrees with numerical integration on the cases with conjunction probabilities above 10 –12 . However, the exact probability in these cases is usually not needed and this probability can be bounded above using an independent Gaussian approximation. Overall, the report shows how to compute conjunction probabilities using a standard statistical method, though numerical integration seems to perform equally well.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling and Control Using Stochastic Distribution Control Theory for Intersection Traffic Flow

In this work, we investigated stochastic distribution control theory-based traffic signal optimization to achieve a smooth and uniform flow of vehicles through signalized intersections. In this context, the static and linear dynamic stochastic distribution models were developed to express the relationship between the signal timing and the traffic queue length together with its probability density function. Two stochastic distribution control algorithms were designed to control the signal timing at intersections such that the probability density function of the traffic queue of each intersection road segment is made as narrow and as small as possible. Also, a recursive input-output traffic queue estimation model was proposed, which is data-driven and dynamic in nature, to calculate real-time traffic queue length using traffic signal timings and loop-detector data. The control algorithms were evaluated for a one-signal corridor, two-signal corridor, and 2 x 2 network of signalized intersections. MATLAB simulation examples are provided to demonstrate the use of the proposed algorithms and comparison to the existing widely-used semi-actuated control has been made. Desired results were obtained.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Statistical characteristics of laser interference and its effect on IR optoelectronic observation systems

We consider statistical characteristics of laser interference recorded in the focal region of an IR optoelectronic observation system under field and out-of-field illumination by laser radiation. The applicability of the analytical description of experimental histograms of the laser interference signal distribution at the photodetector array output using the probability density approximations in the form of gamma distribution and the Gaussian function is substantiated. It is shown that the specific form of these functions is determined both by the mean value (mathematical expectation) of the interference signal and by the characteristic parameter M, which depends on the statistical properties of the laser interference. (laser applications and other issues in quantum electronics)

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multiple Changepoint Detection for Non‐Gaussian Time Series

ABSTRACT This article combines methods from existing techniques to identify multiple changepoints in non‐Gaussian autocorrelated time series. A transformation is used to convert a Gaussian series into a non‐Gaussian series, enabling penalized likelihood methods to handle non‐Gaussian scenarios. When the marginal distribution of the data is continuous, the methods essentially reduce to the change of variables formula for probability densities. When the marginal distribution is count‐oriented, Hermite expansions and particle filtering techniques are used to quantify the scenario. Simulations demonstrating the efficacy of the methods are given and two data sets are analyzed: 1) the proportion of home runs hit by Major League Baseball batters from 1920 to 2023 and 2) a six‐dimensional series of tropical cyclone counts from the Earth's basins of generation from 1980 to 2023. In the first series, beta marginal distributions are used to describe the proportions; in the second, Poisson marginal distributions seem appropriate.

Lund, Robert [Department of Statistics University ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Distributionally Robust Partially Observable Markov Decision Process with Moment-Based Ambiguity

In this paper, we consider a distributionally robust partially observable Markov decision process (DR-POMDP), where the distribution of the transition-observation probabilities is unknown at the beginning of each decision period, but their realizations can be inferred using side information at the end of each period after an action being taken. We build an ambiguity set of the joint distribution using bounded moments via conic constraints and seek an optimal policy to maximize the worst-case (minimum) reward for any distribution in the set. We show that the value function of DR-POMDP is piecewise linear convex with respect to the belief state and propose a heuristic search value iteration method for obtaining lower and upper bounds of the value function. We conduct numerical studies and demonstrate the computational performance of our approach via testing instances of a dynamic epidemic control problem. Our results show that DR-POMDP can produce more robust policies under misspecified distributions of transition-observation probabilities as compared to POMDP but has less costly solutions than robust POMDP. The DR-POMDP policies are also insensitive to varying parameter in the ambiguity set and to noise added to the true transition-observation probability values obtained at the end of each decision period.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Understanding Relationships between Free Volume and Oxygen Absorption in Ionic Liquids

In this report understanding the factors that govern gas absorption in ionic liquids is critical to the development of high-capacity solvents for catalysis, electrochemistry, and gas separations. Here, we report experimental probes of liquid structure that provide insights into how free volume impacts the O 2 absorption properties of ionic liquids. Specifically, we establish that isothermal compressibility - measured rapidly and accurately through small-angle X-ray scattering - reports on the size distribution of transient voids within a representative series of ionic liquids and is correlated with O 2 absorption capacity. Additionally, O 2 absorption capacities are correlated with thermal expansion coefficients, reflecting the beneficial effect of weak intermolecular interactions in ionic liquids on free volume and gas absorption capacity. Molecular dynamics simulations show that the void size distribution - in particular, the probability of forming larger voids within an ionic liquid - has a greater impact on O 2 absorption than the total free volume. These results establish relationships between the ionic liquid structure and gas absorption properties that offer design strategies for ionic liquids with high gas solubilities.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Efficient verification of anticoncentrated quantum states

I present a method for estimating the fidelity F(μ, τ) between a preparable quantum state μ and a classically specified pure target state τ=|τ> <τ|, using simple quantum circuits and on-the-fly classical calculation (or lookup) of selected amplitudes of |τ>. The method is sample efficient for anticoncentrated states (including many states that are hard to simulate classically), with approximate cost 4ϵ –2 (1 – F)dpcoll where ϵ is the desired precision of the estimate, d is the dimension of the Hilbert space, and pcoll is the collision probability of the target distribution. Furthermore, this scaling is exponentially better than that of any method based on classical sampling. I also present a more sophisticated version of the method that uses any efficiently preparable and well-characterized quantum state as an importance sampler to further reduce the number of copies of μ needed. Though some challenges remain, this work takes a significant step toward scalable verification of complex states produced by quantum processors.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian-Motivated Probabilistic Model of Hurricane-Induced Multimechanism Flood Hazards

Multimechanism floods (MMFs) are caused by the simultaneous occurrence of more than one flood mechanism such as storm surge, precipitation, tides, and waves. MMFs can lead to more severe or differing impacts than single-mechanism floods. As a result, comprehensive risk assessments require the ability to assess the multivariate probabilistic behaviors of hazards from MMFs. Here this study introduces a novel Bayesian-motivated approach for the probabilistic assessment of hurricane-induced hazards from the combination of the surge, precipitation, tides, and river antecedent flow. A Bayesian network (BN) is developed to capture the physical (conditional) relationship between variables and facilitate the generation of a hazard curve for river discharge that captures the contributions from multiple flood drivers. A case study located along the Delaware River is used to illustrate the proposed approach. Five computationally efficient representative predictive models are developed to estimate the conditional distributions required for the BN as a means of demonstrating the overall framework. The predictive models used in this study act as placeholders and can be replaced with more sophisticated and high-fidelity models depending on the desired accuracy level. While the predictive models are intended to be representative and illustrative, the model performance is evaluated using three historical storms that affected the area. Overall, the proposed framework is shown to be transparent, effective, and adaptable.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Do Machine Learning Approaches Offer Skill Improvement for Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Gust Occurrence and Magnitude?

Abstract Wind gusts, and in particular intense gusts, are societally relevant but extremely challenging to forecast. This study systematically assesses the skill enhancement that can be achieved using artificial neural networks (ANNs) for forecasting of wind gust occurrence and magnitude. Geophysical predictors from the ERA5 reanalysis are used in conjunction with an autoregressive term in regression and ANN models with different predictors, and varying model complexity. Models are derived and assessed for the warm (April–September) and cold (October–March) seasons for three high passenger volume airports in the United States. Model uncertainty is assessed by deriving models for 1000 different randomly selected training (70%) and testing (30%) subsets. Gust prediction fidelity in independent test samples is critically dependent on inclusion of an autoregressive term. Gust occurrence probabilities derived using five-layer ANNs exhibit consistently higher fidelity than those from regression models and shallower ANNs. Inclusion of the autoregressive term and increasing the number of hidden layers in ANNs from 1 to 5 also improve the model performance for gust magnitudes (lower RMSE, increased correlation, and model standard deviations that more closely approximate observed values). Deeper ANNs (e.g., 20 hidden layers) exhibit higher skill in forecasting strong (17–25.7 m s −1 ) and damaging (≥25.7 m s −1 ) wind gusts. However, such deep networks exhibit evidence of overfitting and still substantially underestimate (by 50%) the frequency of strong and damaging wind gusts at the three airports considered herein. Significance Statement Improved short-term forecasting of wind gusts will enhance aviation safety and logistics and may offer other societal benefits. Here we present a rigorous investigation of the relative skill of models of wind gust occurrence and magnitude that employ different statistical methods. It is shown that artificial neural networks (ANNs) offer considerable skill enhancement over regression methods, particularly for strong and damaging wind gusts. For wind gust magnitudes in particular, application of deeper learning networks (e.g., five or more hidden layers) offers tangible improvements in forecast accuracy. However, deeper networks are vulnerable to overfitting and exhibit substantial variability with the specific training and testing data subset used. Also, even deep ANNs reproduce only half of strong and damaging wind gusts. These results indicate the need for future work to elucidate the dynamical mechanisms of intense wind gusts and advance solutions to their prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Applying Quantum Tomography to Hadronic Interactions

A proper description of inclusive reactions is expressed with density matrices. Quantum tomography reconstructs density matrices from experimental observables. We review recent work that applies quantum tomography to practical experimental data analysis. Almost all field-theoretic formalism and modeling used in a traditional approach is circumvented with great efficiency. Tomographically-determined density matrices can express information about quantum systems which cannot in principle be expressed with distributions defined by classical probability. Topics such as entanglement and von Neumann entropy can be accessed using the same natural language where they are defined. A deep relation exists between separability, as defined in quantum information science, and factorization, as defined in high energy physics. Factorization acquires a non-perturbative definition when expressed in terms of a conditional form of separability. An example illustrates how to go from data for momentum 4-vectors to a density matrix while bypassing almost all the formalism of the Standard Model.

Martens, J. C.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling Urban Acoustic Noise in the Las Vegas, NV Region

Ambient infrasound noise in quiet, rural environments has been extensively studied and well-characterized through noise models for several decades. More recently, creating noise models for high-noise rural environments has also become an area of active research. However, far less work has been done to create generalized low-frequency noise models for urban areas. The high ambient noise levels expected in cities and other highly populated areas means that these environments are regarded as poor locations for acoustic sensors, and historically, sensor deployment in urban areas were avoided for this reason. However, there are several advantages to placing sensors in urban environments, including convenience of deployment and maintenance, and increasingly, necessity, as more previously rural areas become populated. This study seeks to characterize trends in low-frequency urban noise by creating a background noise model for Las Vegas, NV, using the Las Vegas Infrasound Array (LVIA): a network of eleven infrasound sensors deployed throughout the city. Data included in this study spans from 2019 to 2021 and provides a largely uninterrupted record of noise levels in the city from 0.1–500 Hz, with only minor discontinuities on individual stations. We organize raw data from the LVIA sensors into hourly power spectral density (PSD) averages for each station and select from these PSDs to create frequency distributions for time periods of interest . These frequency distributions are converted into probability density functions (PDFs), which are then used to evaluate variations in frequency and amplitude over daily to seasonal timescale s. In addition to PDFs, the median, 5 th percentile, and 95 th percentile amplitude values are calculated across the entire frequency range. This methodology follows a well-established process for noise model creation.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development and Integration of a Stochastic Clad Damage Propagation Model into PRONGHORN-SC Subchannel Analysis Code

The failure of fuel pins in nuclear reactors is intrinsically stochastic. Typically, a combination of variation in manufacturing that affects the material characteristics and the fuel assembly dimensions, variation in operating conditions, such as local power, coolant flow rate, and irradiation induced changes in material properties lead to a large uncertainty in failure margin of the fuel pins. Failure, therefore, may occur in exceptional pins with adverse combinations of these variations. Upon a metal fuel pin (U-Pu-Zr/HT9) failure, depressurization of the fuel pin takes place by release of fission gas, liquid sodium bond, and potentially solid fuel particles or molten/eutectic fuel droplets through the hole in cladding. The effect of a fission gas jet on neighbor fuel pins and possible propagation of a clad damage during normal operation was studied experimentally in 1970s and it was found that the post-failure fission gas jet insulates the jet impingement area of the target fuel pin surface and could increase the target pin’s surface temperature by as much as 100 – 200 K during the failed pin depressurization. It was concluded that the effect should not lead to fuel pin failure propagation during normal operation. In accident scenarios of sodium and lead fast reactors such as Unprotected Loss-Of-Flow (ULOF) or Unprotected Transient Over Power (UTOP), the fuel pins can be subjected to higher clad temperatures and fuel pin pressures or fuel clad mechanical/chemical interaction where thermal creep margin becomes significantly lower compared to the normal operation conditions. Therefore, possible stochastic failure and the post-failure fission gas/fuel jet impingement could be critical in order to predict fuel pin failure propagation. Pin depressurization due to fission gas release may degrade the heat transfer by formation of a gas blanket on a neighboring pin surface, which is a local phenomenon, and by causing coolant flow deceleration and starvation, which could affect a surrounding region as well. Furthermore, the potential presence of solid fuel particles or molten fuel at the time of clad failure could boost post-failure jet induced degradation even further. The present study models the U-Pu-Zr/HT9 metal fuel pin failure and stochastic clad damage propagation by biased sampling based on a Cumulative Damage Fraction (CDF) type clad failure criterion and the normal distribution of fuel failure probability density as a function of logarithm of Cumulative Damage Fraction. In addition, the effect of post-failure fission gas jet on heat transfer degradation is modeled for the target pins. This model is called stochastic Clad Damage Propagation (CDAP). The CDAP model is now fully integrated into developmental version of PRONGHORN-SC subchannel analysis code, allowing for modeling local failures and its propagation potential. Section 2 describes the components of the CDAP models. Section 3 describes the model implementation to PRONGHORN-SC and input specifications. Section 4 describes the CDAP model validation coupled to PRONGHORN-SC.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fast neutrino flavor conversion modes in multidimensional core-collapse supernova models: The role of the asymmetric neutrino distributions

A dense neutrino gas, such as the one anticipated in the supernova environment, can experience fast neutrino flavor conversions on scales much shorter than those expected in vacuum probably provided that the angular distributions of ν e and $\bar{v}_e$ cross each other. We perform a detailed investigation of the neutrino angular distributions obtained by solving the Boltzmann equations for fixed matter profiles of some representative snapshots during the postbounce phase of core-collapse supernovae in multidimensional calculations of a 11.2 M ⊙ and a 27 M ⊙ progenitor model. Although the 11.2 M ⊙ model features ν e - $\bar{v}_e$ angular crossings and the associated fast modes at different time snapshots, the 27 M ⊙ model does not show any crossings within the decoupling region. We show that this can be understood by studying the multipole components of the neutrino distributions. In fact, there is a higher chance for the occurrence of ν e - $\bar{v}_e$ angular crossings for the zones where the multipole components of the neutrino distributions are strong enough. We also show that there can exist more than one crossing between the angular distributions of ν e and $\bar{v}_e$. In addition, apart from the crossings within the neutrino decoupling region, there is a class of ν e - $\bar{v}_e$ angular crossings that appears very deep inside the protoneutron star.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

ED-cPSD: Fast Phase-Size Distribution via Sequential Erosion-Dilation

The Erosion-Dilation continuous Phase-Size Distribution, ED-cPSD, is an application for calculating continuous pore and particle-size distribution from digital reconstructions and/or image-based structural data. It is based on the erosion-dilation continuous phase-size distribution method. A continuous size distribution is a measure of the probability density of finding a particle or pore of a certain size. These distributions are of interest in any field of study involving porous media, including but not limited to electrochemistry, petroleum engineering, geology, and food science. The algorithm behind the software provides a computationally efficient way to calculate phase-size distributions for large domains. For a 3D battery electrode reconstruction with 1.3 x 10 8 voxels, the particle size distribution is derived in under 2 min on a desktop, while also retaining flexibility and computational efficiency for HPC-scale multi-threading. The software can handle structures with over 10 9 voxels. The algorithm is roughly 280 times faster than a previous version on the same task.

Characterization↗
DOE OSTI2024

Computing the Instantaneous Collision Probability between Satellites using Characteristic Function Inversion

The probability that two satellites overlap in space at a specified instant of time is called their instantaneous collision probability. Assuming Gaussian uncertainties and spherical satellites, this probability is the integral of a Gaussian distribution over a sphere. This paper shows how to compute the probability using an established numerical procedure called characteristic function inversion. The collision probability in the short-term encounter scenario is also evaluated with this approach, where the instant at which the probability is computed is the time of closest approach between the objects. Python and R code is provided to evaluate the probability in practice. Overall, the approach has been established for over fifty years, is implemented in existing software, does not rely on analytical approximations, and can be used to evaluate two and three dimensional collision probabilities.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Attraction Indian Buffet Distribution

We propose the attraction Indian buffet distribution (AIBD), a distribution for binary feature matrices influenced by pairwise similarity information. Binary feature matrices are used in Bayesian models to uncover latent variables (i.e., features) that explain observed data. The Indian buffet process (IBP) is a popular exchangeable prior distribution for latent feature matrices. In the presence of additional information, however, the exchangeability assumption is not reasonable or desirable. The AIBD can incorporate pairwise similarity information, yet it preserves many properties of the IBP, including the distribution of the total number of features. Thus, much of the interpretation and intuition that one has for the IBP directly carries over to the AIBD. A temperature parameter controls the degree to which the similarity information affects feature-sharing between observations. Unlike other nonexchangeable distributions for feature allocations, the probability mass function of the AIBD has a tractable normalizing constant, making posterior inference on hyperparameters straight-forward using standard MCMC methods. A novel posterior sampling algorithm is proposed for the IBP and the AIBD. We demonstrate the feasibility of the AIBD as a prior distribution in feature allocation models and compare the performance of competing methods in simulations and an application.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗