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NASA NTRS2012

Changes in Land Surface Water Dynamics since the 1990s and Relation to Population Pressure

We developed a remote sensing approach based on multi-satellite observations, which provides an unprecedented estimate of monthly distribution and area of land-surface open water over the whole globe. Results for 1993 to 2007 exhibit a large seasonal and inter-annual variability of the inundation extent with an overall decline in global average maximum inundated area of 6% during the fifteen-year period, primarily in tropical and subtropical South America and South Asia. The largest declines of open water are found where large increases in population have occurred over the last two decades, suggesting a global scale effect of human activities on continental surface freshwater: denser population can impact local hydrology by reducing freshwater extent, by draining marshes and wetlands, and by increasing water withdrawals. Citation: Prigent, C., F. Papa, F. Aires, C. Jimenez, W. B. Rossow, and E. Matthews (2012), Changes in land surface water dynamics since the 1990s and relation to population pressure, in section 4, insisting on the potential applications of the wetland dataset.

Prigent, C.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Rapid recovery of invasive wild pig (Sus scrofa) populations following density reduction

Abstract Trapping is an effective strategy for control of invasive wild pig (Sus scrofa), but eradication of populations via trapping alone typically is impractical throughout much of the species’ introduced range. Consequently, recovery of wild pig populations to pre-trapping levels following control is a major impediment to success of long-term control. In this study, we conducted camera-trap surveys to monitor recovery of two wild pig populations immediately following density reductions achieved via trapping on two sites on the Savannah River Site, SC. We used spatial capture-recapture models to estimate wild pig density during seven 3 week periods spanning 12 months to: (1) determine the time required for populations to recover to pre-trapping levels; and (2) evaluate trends in population growth, density, and distribution during recovery. Recovery of both wild pig populations started immediately after trapping ceased, with populations reaching pre-trapping levels in 3 and 5 months. Threeweek population growth rates for each wild pig population during recovery averaged 1.28 (range = 1.11–1.39 on site 1) and 1.24 (range = 0.64–1.92 on site 2), which corresponded to a 345% and 132% increase in abundance (an increase of 141 and 126 individual wild pigs on site 1 and 2, respectively) of each population by the last survey period. Rapid recovery and growth beyond pre-trapping levels of wild pig populations likely were driven by residual wild pigs not removed by trapping and compensatory reproduction and immigration. Our study is one of the first to provide information on how quickly wild pig populations can recover following overall density reductions of 54–68% and indicates practitioners should be prepared to reinitiate trapping efforts in as little as 3 months to prevent recovery of wild pig populations following control.

Biodiversity & Conservation↗

NASA NTRS2013

Estimating Ground-Level PM(sub 2.5) Concentrations in the Southeastern United States Using MAIAC AOD Retrievals and a Two-Stage Model

Previous studies showed that fine particulate matter (PM(sub 2.5), particles smaller than 2.5 micrometers in aerodynamic diameter) is associated with various health outcomes. Ground in situ measurements of PM(sub 2.5) concentrations are considered to be the gold standard, but are time-consuming and costly. Satellite-retrieved aerosol optical depth (AOD) products have the potential to supplement the ground monitoring networks to provide spatiotemporally-resolved PM(sub 2.5) exposure estimates. However, the coarse resolutions (e.g., 10 km) of the satellite AOD products used in previous studies make it very difficult to estimate urban-scale PM(sub 2.5) characteristics that are crucial to population-based PM(sub 2.5) health effects research. In this paper, a new aerosol product with 1 km spatial resolution derived by the Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm was examined using a two-stage spatial statistical model with meteorological fields (e.g., wind speed) and land use parameters (e.g., forest cover, road length, elevation, and point emissions) as ancillary variables to estimate daily mean PM(sub 2.5) concentrations. The study area is the southeastern U.S., and data for 2003 were collected from various sources. A cross validation approach was implemented for model validation. We obtained R(sup 2) of 0.83, mean prediction error (MPE) of 1.89 micrograms/cu m, and square root of the mean squared prediction errors (RMSPE) of 2.73 micrograms/cu m in model fitting, and R(sup 2) of 0.67, MPE of 2.54 micrograms/cu m, and RMSPE of 3.88 micrograms/cu m in cross validation. Both model fitting and cross validation indicate a good fit between the dependent variable and predictor variables. The results showed that 1 km spatial resolution MAIAC AOD can be used to estimate PM(sub 2.5) concentrations.

aerosol optical depth↗

NASA NTRS2007

Solar Radiation Pressure Estimation and Analysis of a GEO Class of High Area-to-Mass Ratio Debris Objects

A population of deep space objects is thought to be high area-to-mass ratio (AMR) debris having origins from sources in the geosynchronous orbit (GEO) belt. The typical AMR values have been observed to range anywhere from 1's to 10's of m(sup 2)/kg, and hence, higher than average solar radiation pressure effects result in long-term migration of eccentricity (0.1-0.6) and inclination over time. However, the nature of the debris orientation-dependent dynamics also results time-varying solar radiation forces about the average which complicate the short-term orbit determination processing. The orbit determination results are presented for several of these debris objects, and highlight their unique and varied dynamic attributes. Estimation or the solar pressure dynamics over time scales suitable for resolving the shorter term dynamics improves the orbit estimation, and hence, the orbit predictions needed to conduct follow-up observations.

Kelecy, Tom↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analysis of Electrical Grid Capacity in Major U.S. Metropolitan Areas for Urban Air Mobility

A wide range of challenges must be overcome to conduct Urban Air Mobility (UAM) operations at scale with electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft as envisioned. This paper documents an analysis of one potential infrastructure challenge for UAM: available electrical grid power capacity. The success of UAM depends on the availability of electricity, which will be increasingly impacted by the proliferation of ground electric vehicles (EVs) over time. Under the worst-case assumption that each U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) can only access and utilize the electricity generated by power plants within its boundaries, it is estimated that the maximum number of UAM aircraft that can charge simultaneously in the 25 most populous MSAs will decrease by about 61% from about 129,000 in the year 2021 to about 51,000 in the year 2050, due to the projected increase in ground EVs. Also, it is estimated that the number of these MSAs that may lack any available electrical grid power capacity for UAM operations will increase from zero MSAs in 2021 to eleven MSAs in 2050—including three MSAs that prospective UAM operators have announced as target markets (Los Angeles, Miami, and Orlando)—unless electricity demand for other purposes is reduced.

electrical grid↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analysis of Electrical Grid Capacity in Major U.S. Metropolitan Areas for Urban Air Mobility

electrical grid↗

NASA NTRS2011

Sputtering by the Solar Wind: Effects of Variable Composition

It has long been recognized that solar wind bombardment onto exposed surfaces in the solar system will produce an energetic component to the exospheres about those bodies. Laboratory experiments have shown that there is no increase in the sputtering yield caused by highly charged heavy ions for metallic and for semiconducting surfaces, but the sputter yield can be noticeably increased in the case of a good insulating surface. Recently measurements of the solar wind composition have become available. It is now known that the solar wind composition is highly dependent on the origin of the particular plasma. Using the measured composition of the slow wind, fast wind, solar energetic particle (SEP) population, and coronal mass ejection (CME), broken down into its various components, we have estimated the total sputter yield for each type of solar wind. Whereas many previous calculations of sputtering were limited to the effects of proton bombardment. we show that the heavy ion component. especially the He++ component. can greatly enhance the total sputter yield during times when the heavy ion population is enhanced. We will discuss sputtering of both neutrals and ions.

Killen, R. M.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Voxel carving–based 3D reconstruction of sorghum identifies genetic determinants of light interception efficiency

Changes in canopy architecture traits have been shown to contribute to yield increases. Optimizing both light interception and light interception efficiency of agricultural crop canopies will be essential to meeting the growing food needs. Canopy architecture is inherently three-dimensional (3D), but many approaches to measuring canopy architecture component traits treat the canopy as a two-dimensional (2D) structure to make large scale measurement, selective breeding, and gene identification logistically feasible. We develop a high throughput voxel carving strategy to reconstruct 3D representations of sorghum from a small number of RGB photos. Our approach builds on the voxel carving algorithm to allow for fully automatic reconstruction of hundreds of plants. It was employed to generate 3D reconstructions of individual plants within a sorghum association population at the late vegetative stage of development. Light interception parameters estimated from these reconstructions enabled the identification of known and previously unreported loci controlling light interception efficiency in sorghum. The approach is generalizable and scalable, and it enables 3D reconstructions from existing plant high throughput phenotyping datasets. We also propose a set of best practices to increase 3D reconstructions’ accuracy.

3D plant reconstruction↗

DOE OSTI2021

A resource of lipidomics and metabolomics data from individuals with undiagnosed diseases

Every year individuals experience symptoms that remain undiagnosed by healthcare providers. In the United States, these rare diseases are defined as a condition that affects fewer than 200,000 individuals. However, there are an estimated 7000 rare diseases, and there are an estimated 25–30 million Americans in total (7.6–9.2% of the population as of 2018) affected by such disorders. The NIH Common Fund Undiagnosed Diseases Network (UDN) seeks to provide diagnoses for individuals with undiagnosed disease. Mass spectrometry-based metabolomics and lipidomics analyses could advance the collective understanding of individual symptoms and advance diagnoses for individuals with heretofore undiagnosed disease. Here, we report the mass spectrometry-based metabolomics and lipidomics analyses of blood plasma, urine, and cerebrospinal fluid from 148 patients within the UDN and their families, as well as from a reference population of over 100 individuals with no known metabolic diseases. The raw and processed data are available to the research community so that they might be useful in the diagnoses of current or future patients suffering from undiagnosed disorders.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Modeling hepatitis C micro-elimination among people who inject drugs with direct-acting antivirals in metropolitan Chicago

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a leading cause of chronic liver disease and mortality worldwide. Direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy leads to high cure rates. However, persons who inject drugs (PWID) are at risk for reinfection after cure and may require multiple DAA treatments to reach the World Health Organization’s (WHO) goal of HCV elimination by 2030. Using an agent-based model (ABM) that accounts for the complex interplay of demographic factors, risk behaviors, social networks, and geographic location for HCV transmission among PWID, we examined the combination(s) of DAA enrollment (2.5%, 5%, 7.5%, 10%), adherence (60%, 70%, 80%, 90%) and frequency of DAA treatment courses needed to achieve the WHO’s goal of reducing incident chronic infections by 90% by 2030 among a large population of PWID from Chicago, IL and surrounding suburbs. We also estimated the economic DAA costs associated with each scenario. Our results indicate that a DAA treatment rate of >7.5% per year with 90% adherence results in 75% of enrolled PWID requiring only a single DAA course; however 19% would require 2 courses, 5%, 3 courses and <2%, 4 courses, with an overall DAA cost of $325 million to achieve the WHO goal in metropolitan Chicago. We estimate a 28% increase in the overall DAA cost under low adherence (70%) compared to high adherence (90%). Our modeling results have important public health implications for HCV elimination among U.S. PWID. Using a range of feasible treatment enrollment and adherence rates, we report robust findings supporting the need to address re-exposure and reinfection among PWID to reduce HCV incidence.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Argonne National Laboratory Site Environmental Report for Calendar Year 2024

This report discusses the status and accomplishments of the environmental protection program at Argonne National Laboratory for calendar year 2024. The status of Argonne environmental protection activities with respect to compliance with the various laws and regulations is discussed, along with environmental management, efficiency efforts, environmental corrective actions, and habitat restoration. To evaluate the effects of Argonne operations on the environment, samples of environmental media collected on the site, at the site boundary, and off the Argonne site were analyzed and compared with applicable guidelines and standards. A variety of radionuclides were measured in air, surface water, groundwater, and bottom sediment samples. In addition, chemical constituents in surface water, groundwater, and wastewater were analyzed. External penetrating radiation doses were measured, and the potential for radiation exposure to off-site population groups and on-site members of the public was estimated. Results are interpreted with respect to the origin of radioactive and chemical substances (i.e., natural, Argonne, and other) and are compared with applicable standards intended to protect human health and the environment. A U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) dose calculation methodology, based on International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) recommendations and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) CAP 88 computer code, was used in preparing this report.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

From Images to Dark Matter: End-to-end Inference of Substructure from Hundreds of Strong Gravitational Lenses

Abstract Constraining the distribution of small-scale structure in our universe allows us to probe alternatives to the cold dark matter paradigm. Strong gravitational lensing offers a unique window into small dark matter halos (<10 10 M ⊙ ) because these halos impart a gravitational lensing signal even if they do not host luminous galaxies. We create large data sets of strong lensing images with realistic low-mass halos, Hubble Space Telescope (HST) observational effects, and galaxy light from HST’s COSMOS field. Using a simulation-based inference pipeline, we train a neural posterior estimator of the subhalo mass function (SHMF) and place constraints on populations of lenses generated using a separate set of galaxy sources. We find that by combining our network with a hierarchical inference framework, we can both reliably infer the SHMF across a variety of configurations and scale efficiently to populations with hundreds of lenses. By conducting precise inference on large and complex simulated data sets, our method lays a foundation for extracting dark matter constraints from the next generation of wide-field optical imaging surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Natural Fracture Pattern Development Using 3D Coupled Numerical Model: Mechanics and Diagenesis

In the earth's crust, while tectonic processes can mechanically create natural fractures, cementation can simultaneously grow on the surfaces of the fractures. This crystallization can affect the growth of the fractures. To more accurately address the modeling of natural fracture development, both mechanical deformation and chemical diagenesis should be carried out in an integrated manner. Here, we achieve this with a three-dimensional (3D) simulator that couples mechanical and chemical processes for natural fracture pattern development in layer confined situations. Tectonic loading over geologic time is mimicked by displacement driven boundary conditions in a 3D displacement discontinuity method (DDM) scheme. Quartz diagenesis competes with mechanical fracture opening, resulting in three different cementation conditions - open, bridging or fully infilled – which define fracture element stiffness that is used as feedback within the 3D-DDM code during propagation. An important milestone of this work is that this coupled structural diagenetic model can reproduce power-law aperture population statistics which cannot be generated using mechanics alone. More accurately estimated mechanical fracture apertures and their cementation condition is a critical step toward better permeability estimation and fluid path analysis for subsurface reservoirs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1982

The origins of the plasma in the distant plasma sheet

It is pointed out that ion mass spectrometers operating in the keV range have recently begun to provide a new class of information on magnetospheric processes. One of the principal motivations for the development of energetic ion mass spectrometers has been to investigate the origins of the hot plasma populations of the magnetosphere. Peterson et al. (1981) were able to estimate the fractional ion density of ionospheric origin in five intervals by intercomparing the He(++) and H(+) spectra and assuming the excess low-energy H(+) ions were from the ionosphere. They obtained values in the range from 0.1 to 0.65. The present investigation is concerned with an expansion of the previous study. A substantially larger data base is utilized, and a different set of assumptions is considered to infer the relative fractions of solar and ionospheric H(+) and to look for systematic changes in the relative source strengths with magnetic activity.

Sharp, R. D.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Structural reliability analysis of laminated CMC components

For laminated ceramic matrix composite (CMC) materials to realize their full potential in aerospace applications, design methods and protocols are a necessity. The time independent failure response of these materials is focussed on and a reliability analysis is presented associated with the initiation of matrix cracking. A public domain computer algorithm is highlighted that was coupled with the laminate analysis of a finite element code and which serves as a design aid to analyze structural components made from laminated CMC materials. Issues relevant to the effect of the size of the component are discussed, and a parameter estimation procedure is presented. The estimation procedure allows three parameters to be calculated from a failure population that has an underlying Weibull distribution.

Duffy, Stephen F.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Structural reliability analysis of laminated CMC components

Duffy, Stephen F.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Two protogalaxy candidates in one night

In spite of a lookback time of 77 to 89 percent of the age of the universe, Lilly provided evidence that the dominant stellar population in 0902 was surprisingly old, over 1 Gyr. This age estimate was based on the values K = 18.8 and I-K = 4.5 in the central 3.5 x 3.5 inch. At Lilly's suggestion, we reobserved 0902 at K, and in initial reductions of our data found only an upper limit (K greater than 19.5). After extensive experimentation with reduction techniques and correction for low-level systematic effects, we succeeded in extracting a four sigma detection at K = 19.9 in a 4 inch diameter circular aperture. The morphology and location of this detection were more reminescent of the Ly alpha image than of CCD continuum images, and in Mar. 1992, we obtained a narrow band image which included redshifted (OIII) 4959,5007 A line emission at 2.20 microns. This (OIII) image gave a strong detection which demonstrates that most of the central K flux, already reduced by a magnitude, is due to line emission. Our formal line corrected values in a 4 inch aperture are K = 21.5 and R-K = 1.9. Hence, 0902 has been transformed from relaxed maturity into unsettled youth.

Eisenhardt, Peter↗

NASA NTRS2001

On Orbital Elements of Extrasolar Planetary Candidates and Spectroscopic Binaries

We estimate probability densities of orbital elements, periods, and eccentricities, for the population of extrasolar planetary candidates (EPC) and, separately, for the population of spectroscopic binaries (SB) with solar-type primaries. We construct empirical cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) in order to infer probability distribution functions (PDFs) for orbital periods and eccentricities. We also derive a joint probability density for period-eccentricity pairs in each population. Comparison of respective distributions reveals that in all cases EPC and SB populations are, in the context of orbital elements, indistinguishable from each other to a high degree of statistical significance. Probability densities of orbital periods in both populations have P(exp -1) functional form, whereas the PDFs of eccentricities can he best characterized as a Gaussian with a mean of about 0.35 and standard deviation of about 0.2 turning into a flat distribution at small values of eccentricity. These remarkable similarities between EPC and SB must be taken into account by theories aimed at explaining the origin of extrasolar planetary candidates, and constitute an important clue us to their ultimate nature.

Stepinski, T. F.↗