Results for “Performance Modeling” — Page 28

NASA NTRS2014

Development and Implementation of Dynamic Scripts to Support Local Model Verification at National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices

Local modeling with a customized configuration is conducted at National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) to produce high-resolution numerical forecasts that can better simulate local weather phenomena and complement larger scale global and regional models. The advent of the Environmental Modeling System (EMS), which provides a pre-compiled version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and wrapper Perl scripts, has enabled forecasters to easily configure and execute the WRF model on local workstations. NWS WFOs often use EMS output to help in forecasting highly localized, mesoscale features such as convective initiation, the timing and inland extent of lake effect snow bands, lake and sea breezes, and topographically-modified winds. However, quantitatively evaluating model performance to determine errors and biases still proves to be one of the challenges in running a local model. Developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) verification software makes performing these types of quantitative analyses easier, but operational forecasters do not generally have time to familiarize themselves with navigating the sometimes complex configurations associated with the MET tools. To assist forecasters in running a subset of MET programs and capabilities, the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed and transitioned a set of dynamic, easily configurable Perl scripts to collaborating NWS WFOs. The objective of these scripts is to provide SPoRT collaborating partners in the NWS with the ability to evaluate the skill of their local EMS model runs in near real time with little prior knowledge of the MET package. The ultimate goal is to make these verification scripts available to the broader NWS community in a future version of the EMS software. This paper provides an overview of the SPoRT MET scripts, instructions for how the scripts are run, and example use cases.

Zavordsky, Bradley↗

NASA NTRS2014

Development and Implementation of Dynamic Scripts to Support Local Model Verification at National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices

Local modeling with a customized configuration is conducted at National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) to produce high-resolution numerical forecasts that can better simulate local weather phenomena and complement larger scale global and regional models. The advent of the Environmental Modeling System (EMS), which provides a pre-compiled version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and wrapper Perl scripts, has enabled forecasters to easily configure and execute the WRF model on local workstations. NWS WFOs often use EMS output to help in forecasting highly localized, mesoscale features such as convective initiation, the timing and inland extent of lake effect snow bands, lake and sea breezes, and topographically-modified winds. However, quantitatively evaluating model performance to determine errors and biases still proves to be one of the challenges in running a local model. Developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) verification software makes performing these types of quantitative analyses easier, but operational forecasters do not generally have time to familiarize themselves with navigating the sometimes complex configurations associated with the MET tools. To assist forecasters in running a subset of MET programs and capabilities, the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed and transitioned a set of dynamic, easily configurable Perl scripts to collaborating NWS WFOs. The objective of these scripts is to provide SPoRT collaborating partners in the NWS with the ability to evaluate the skill of their local EMS model runs in near real time with little prior knowledge of the MET package. The ultimate goal is to make these verification scripts available to the broader NWS community in a future version of the EMS software. This paper provides an overview of the SPoRT MET scripts, instructions for how the scripts are run, and example use cases.

Zavodsky, Bradley↗

NASA NTRS1992

Performance Evaluation and Modeling Techniques for Parallel Processors

In practice, the performance evaluation of supercomputers is still substantially driven by singlepoint estimates of metrics (e.g., MFLOPS) obtained by running characteristic benchmarks or workloads. With the rapid increase in the use of time-shared multiprogramming in these systems, such measurements are clearly inadequate. This is because multiprogramming and system overhead, as well as other degradations in performance due to time varying characteristics of workloads, are not taken into account. In multiprogrammed environments, multiple jobs and users can dramatically increase the amount of system overhead and degrade the performance of the machine. Performance techniques, such as benchmarking, which characterize performance on a dedicated machine ignore this major component of true computer performance. Due to the complexity of analysis, there has been little work done in analyzing, modeling, and predicting the performance of applications in multiprogrammed environments. This is especially true for parallel processors, where the costs and benefits of multi-user workloads are exacerbated. While some may claim that the issue of multiprogramming is not a viable one in the supercomputer market, experience shows otherwise. Even in recent massively parallel machines, multiprogramming is a key component. It has even been claimed that a partial cause of the demise of the CM2 was the fact that it did not efficiently support time-sharing. In the same paper, Gordon Bell postulates that, multicomputers will evolve to multiprocessors in order to support efficient multiprogramming. Therefore, it is clear that parallel processors of the future will be required to offer the user a time-shared environment with reasonable response times for the applications. In this type of environment, the most important performance metric is the completion of response time of a given application. However, there are a few evaluation efforts addressing this issue.

Dimpsey, Robert Tod↗

NASA NTRS1979

METAPHOR (version 1): Users guide

General information concerning METAPHOR, an interactive software package to facilitate performability modeling and evaluation, is presented. Example systems are studied and their performabilities are calculated. Each available METAPHOR command and array generator is described. Complete METAPHOR sessions are included.

Furchtgott, D. G.↗

NASA NTRS1989

A PBL-radiation model for application to regional numerical weather prediction

Often in the short-range limited-area numerical weather prediction (NWP) of extratropical weather systems the effects of planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes are considered secondarily important. However, it may not be the case for the regional NWP of mesoscale convective systems over the arid and semi-arid highlands of the southwestern and south-central United States in late spring and summer. Over these dry regions, the PBL can grow quite high up into the lower middle troposphere (600 mb) due to very effective solar heating and hence a vigorous air-land thermal interaction can occur. The interaction representing a major heat source for regional dynamical systems can not be ignored. A one-dimensional PBL-radiation model was developed. The model PBL consists of a constant-flux surface layer superposed with a well-mixed (Ekman) layer. The vertical eddy mixing coefficients for heat and momentum in the surface layer are determined according to the surface similarity theory, while their vertical profiles in the Ekman layer are specified with a cubic polynomial. Prognostic equations are used for predicting the height of the nonneutral PBL. The atmospheric radiation is parameterized to define the surface heat source/sink for the growth and decay of the PBL. A series of real-data numerical experiments has been carried out to obtain a physical understanding how the model performs under various atmospheric and surface conditions. This one-dimensional model will eventually be incorporated into a mesoscale prediction system. The ultimate goal of this research is to improve the NWP of mesoscale convective storms over land.

Chang, Chia-Bo↗

NASA NTRS2003

Results of Evaluation of Solar Thermal Propulsion

The solar thermal propulsion evaluation reported here relied on prior research for all information on solar thermal propulsion technology and performance. Sources included personal contacts with experts in the field in addition to published reports and papers. Mission performance models were created based on this information in order to estimate performance and mass characteristics of solar thermal propulsion systems. Mission analysis was performed for a set of reference missions to assess the capabilities and benefits of solar thermal propulsion in comparison with alternative in-space propulsion systems such as chemical and electric propulsion. Mission analysis included estimation of delta V requirements as well as payload capabilities for a range of missions. Launch requirements and costs, and integration into launch vehicles, were also considered. The mission set included representative robotic scientific missions, and potential future NASA human missions beyond low Earth orbit. Commercial communications satellite delivery missions were also included, because if STP technology were selected for that application, frequent use is implied and this would help amortize costs for technology advancement and systems development. A C3 Topper mission was defined, calling for a relatively small STP. The application is to augment the launch energy (C3) available from launch vehicles with their built-in upper stages. Payload masses were obtained from references where available. The communications satellite masses represent the range of payload capabilities for the Delta IV Medium and/or Atlas launch vehicle family. Results indicated that STP could improve payload capability over current systems, but that this advantage cannot be realized except in a few cases because of payload fairing volume limitations on current launch vehicles. It was also found that acquiring a more capable (existing) launch vehicle, rather than adding an STP stage, is the most economical in most cases.

Woodcock, Gordon↗

NASA NTRS2017

Point-Mass Aircraft Trajectory Prediction Using a Hierarchical, Highly-Adaptable Software Design

A highly adaptable and extensible method for predicting four-dimensional trajectories of civil aircraft has been developed. This method, Behavior-Based Trajectory Prediction, is based on taxonomic concepts developed for the description and comparison of trajectory prediction software. A hierarchical approach to the "behavioral" layer of a point-mass model of aircraft flight, a clear separation between the "behavioral" and "mathematical" layers of the model, and an abstraction of the methods of integrating differential equations in the "mathematical" layer have been demonstrated to support aircraft models of different types (in particular, turbojet vs. turboprop aircraft) using performance models at different levels of detail and in different formats, and promise to be easily extensible to other aircraft types and sources of data. The resulting trajectories predict location, altitude, lateral and vertical speeds, and fuel consumption along the flight path of the subject aircraft accurately and quickly, accounting for local conditions of wind and outside air temperature. The Behavior-Based Trajectory Prediction concept was implemented in NASA's Traffic Aware Planner (TAP) flight-optimizing cockpit software application.

Karr, David A.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Magnetotail Boundary Crossings at Lunar Distances: ARTEMIS Observations

We compare results from a preliminary analysis of two years of ARTEMIS magnetopause boundary crossings at lunar distances with available empirical models. We remove the effects of variable solar wind flow directions and aberration angles to study the magnetotail cross-section as a function of solar wind conditions. The average magnetopause distance from the central axis is 26 RE, but this distance ranges from 10 RE for high solar wind dynamic pressures and strong northward IMF orientations to 39 RE for low solar wind dynamic pressures and weak southward IMF orientations compared to the nominal solar wind conditions. The time-independent Howe and Binsack (1972) model describes the average location of the crossings very well. For high solar wind dynamic pressures, the Lu et al., (2011) model performs best, while for low pressures the Petrinec and Russell (1996) model gives the closest prediction. As predicted by theory and seen in past studies, the magnetotail cross-section is suggestive of prolate during intervals of strong IMF By, but oblate during intervals of strong IMF Bz. Any asymmetric variation of the tail boundary with respect to the sign of IMF By was not observed. The decreasing size of boundary with the increasing dynamic pressure was found when dynamic pressures are smaller than 2nPa. Although the scatter is larger, the tail size for pressures larger than 2nPa suggests a constant radius. The tail boundary size decreases as the strength of IMF Bz increases regardless of its polarity. However, it was also observed that an even stronger southward IMF Bz can cause larger magnetopause size in the presence of large dynamic pressures.

Magnetotail↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using Long-Short Term Memory Models to Predict Solar Active Regions Emergence

We train Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models that predict the formation of active regions (ARs), the main source of eruptive solar activity. Using the Doppler shift velocity, the continuum intensity and the magnetic field full-disk maps from SDO/HMI we have created time-series datasets of acoustic power and magnetic flux which are used to train Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models on predicting decreases in continuum intensity 12 hours in advance. Testing of the models' performance was done on data from 5 ARs, unseen from the model during training. The model predicted the emergence of AR11726, AR13165 and AR13179, 10, 29 and 5 hours in advance, and variations of this model achieved average RMSE values of 0.11 for both active and quiet parts of the solar disc, showing the ability of the model to capture acoustic power anomalies and predict continuum intensity variations. This work sets the foundations for the very first ML-aided prediction of solar ARs.

SMD↗

NASA NTRS2017

Lightweight ZERODUR: Validation of Mirror Performance and Mirror Modeling Predictions

Upcoming spaceborne missions, both moderate and large in scale, require extreme dimensional stability while relying both upon established lightweight mirror materials, and also upon accurate modeling methods to predict performance under varying boundary conditions. We describe tests, recently performed at NASA's XRCF chambers and laboratories in Huntsville Alabama, during which a 1.2 m diameter, f/1.2988% lightweighted SCHOTT lightweighted ZERODUR(TradeMark) mirror was tested for thermal stability under static loads in steps down to 230K. Test results are compared to model predictions, based upon recently published data on ZERODUR(TradeMark). In addition to monitoring the mirror surface for thermal perturbations in XRCF Thermal Vacuum tests, static load gravity deformations have been measured and compared to model predictions. Also the Modal Response(dynamic disturbance) was measured and compared to model. We will discuss the fabrication approach and optomechanical design of the ZERODUR(TradeMark) mirror substrate by SCHOTT, its optical preparation for test by Arizona Optical Systems (AOS). Summarize the outcome of NASA's XRCF tests and model validations

technology↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Validation of Universal Cryogenic Flow Boiling Correlations in Thermal Desktop for Liquid Hydrogen

Developing accurate models of two-phase cryogenic flow will reduce risk and reduce margins for future NASA vehicles such as the Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) system. Currently there is a need for more accurate, direct cryogenic data-anchored models for various boiling and two-phase phenomena. The focus of the current work is on modeling steady state cryogenic flow boiling in the transfer line that connects a propellant storage tank to an engine or customer receiver tank. This paper presents Thermal Desktop model validation results against several historical liquid hydrogen (LH2) heated tube experiments that cover a wide range of inlet conditions, mass flux, and heat flux. New universal cryogenic flow boiling correlations were recently developed and anchored to the largest cryogenic flow boiling database assembled in the world to-date. The new universal correlations are patched together and implemented into Thermal Desktop to compare model performance against the built-in flow boiling correlations. Axial wall temperature predictions as a function of preponderant parameters like heat flux, mass flux, inlet pressure, inlet quality, tube diameter, etc. using the two sets of flow boiling correlations are compared against the experimental data. Overall, the Thermal Desktop model with the new universal cryogenic flow boiling correlations demonstrates an improvement in predictive performance over the Thermal Desktop model using built-in correlations for both wall temperature and location of critical heat flux compared to the data for LH2 flow boiling in heated tubes.

Cryogenic Propellant Transfer↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Validation of Universal Cryogenic Flow Boiling Correlations in Thermal Desktop for Liquid Hydrogen

Developing accurate models of two-phase cryogenic flow will reduce risk and reduce margins for future NASA vehicles such as the Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) system. Currently there is a need for more accurate, direct cryogenic data-anchored models for various boiling and two-phase phenomena. The focus of the current work is on modeling steady state cryogenic flow boiling in the transfer line that connects a propellant storage tank to an engine or customer receiver tank. This paper presents Thermal Desktop model validation results against several historical liquid hydrogen (LH2) heated tube experiments that cover a wide range of inlet conditions, mass flux, and heat flux. New universal cryogenic flow boiling correlations were recently developed and anchored to the largest cryogenic flow boiling database assembled in the world to-date. The new universal correlations are patched together and implemented into Thermal Desktop to compare model performance against the built-in flow boiling correlations. Axial wall temperature predictions as a function of preponderant parameters like heat flux, mass flux, inlet pressure, inlet quality, tube diameter, etc. using the two sets of flow boiling correlations are compared against the experimental data. Overall, the Thermal Desktop model with the new universal cryogenic flow boiling correlations demonstrates an improvement in predictive performance over the Thermal Desktop model using built-in correlations for both wall temperature and location of critical heat flux compared to the data for LH2 flow boiling in heated tubes.

cryogenic propellant transfer↗

NASA NTRS2000

Performance Evaluation of the NASA/KSC Transmission System

NASA-KSC currently uses three bridged 100-Mbps FDDI segments as its backbone for data traffic. The FDDI Transmission System (FTXS) connects the KSC industrial area, KSC launch complex 39 area, and the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. The report presents a performance modeling study of the FTXS and the proposed ATM Transmission System (ATXS). The focus of the study is on performance of MPEG video transmission on these networks. Commercial modeling tools - the CACI Predictor and Comnet tools - were used. In addition, custom software tools were developed to characterize conversation pairs in Sniffer trace (capture) files to use as input to these tools. A baseline study of both non-launch and launch day data traffic on the FTXS is presented. MPEG-1 and MPEG-2 video traffic was characterized and the shaping of it evaluated. It is shown that the characteristics of a video stream has a direct effect on its performance in a network. It is also shown that shaping of video streams is necessary to prevent overflow losses and resulting poor video quality. The developed models can be used to predict when the existing FTXS will 'run out of room' and for optimizing the parameters of ATM links used for transmission of MPEG video. Future work with these models can provide useful input and validation to set-top box projects within the Advanced Networks Development group in NASA-KSC Development Engineering.

Christensen, Kenneth J.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Human performance cognitive-behavioral modeling: a benefit for occupational safety

Human Performance Modeling (HPM) is a computer-aided job analysis software methodology used to generate predictions of complex human-automation integration and system flow patterns with the goal of improving operator and system safety. The use of HPM tools has recently been increasing due to reductions in computational cost, augmentations in the tools' fidelity, and usefulness in the generated output. An examination of an Air Man-machine Integration Design and Analysis System (Air MIDAS) model evaluating complex human-automation integration currently underway at NASA Ames Research Center will highlight the importance to occupational safety of considering both cognitive and physical aspects of performance when researching human error.

Occupational Health↗

NASA NTRS1972

Installation effects on performance of multiple model V/STOL lift fans

An experimental program was performed in which the individual performance of multiple VTOL model lift fans was measured. The model tested consisted of three 5.5 in. diameter tip-turbine driven model VTOL lift fans mounted chordwise in a two-dimensional wing to simulate a pod-type array. The performance data provided significant insight into possible thrust variations and losses caused by the presence of cover doors, adjacent fuselage panels, and adjacent fans. The effect of a partial loss of drive air supply (simulated gas generator failure) on fan performance was also investigated. The results of the tests demonstrated that lift fan installation variables and hardware can have a significant effect on the thrust of the individual fans.

Diedrich, J. H.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Proposed Schematics and Modeling Results for a Lunar Portable Life Support System

The Constellation Space Suit Element (CSSE) is an integrated assembly made up of primarily a Pressure Garment System (PGS) and a Portable Life Support System (PLSS). The PLSS is further composed of an oxygen (O2) subsystem, a ventilation subsystem, and a thermal subsystem. This paper baselines a detailed schematic of the CSSE PLSS to provide a basis for current and future CSSE PLSS development efforts. Both context diagrams and detailed schematics describe the hardware components and overall functions for all three of the PLSS subsystems. Additionally, PLSS functions are presented for multiple operational scenarios as follows: 1) Nominal Extravehicular Activity (EVA) Mode; 2) Umbilical Modes; a) No Recharge, b) With Recharge; 3) Decompression Sickness (DCS) Treatment Mode; 4) Buddy Mode; 5) Secondary O2 Modes; a) Helmet Purge; b) Suit Purge; c) Operational; and 5) PLSS Removed Umbilical Mode. A performance modeling effort is being performed to provide a preliminary confirmation of this layout and the current state of the thermal hydraulic modeling efforts being conducted for the PLSS is presented. The goal of these efforts is to provide realistic simulations of the PLSS under various modes of operation. Modeling approaches and assumptions are discussed as well as component model descriptions. Results from the models are included that show PLSS operations at steady-state and transient conditions. Finally, conclusions and recommendations are offered that summarize results, identify PLSS design weaknesses uncovered during review of the analysis results, and propose areas for improvement to increase model fidelity and accuracy.

Conger, Bruce↗

NASA NTRS1986

Study of selected tether applications in space, phase 3, volume 2

The results of a Phase 3 study of two Selected Tether Applications in Space (STAIS); deorbit of a Shuttle and launch of an Orbital Transfer Vehicle (OTV), both from the space station using a tether were examined. The study objectives were to: perform a preliminary engineering design, define operational scenarios, develop a common cost model, perform cost benefits analyses, and develop a Work Breakdown Structure (WBS). Key features of the performance analysis were to identify the net increases in effective Shuttle cargo capability if tethers are used to assist in the deorbit of Shuttles and the launching of the OTVs from the space station and to define deployer system designs required to accomplish these tasks. Deployer concepts were designed and discussed. Operational scenarios, including timelines, for both tethered and nontethered Shuttle and OTV operations at the space station were evaluated. A summary discussion of the Selected Tether Applications Cost Model (STACOM) and the results of the cost benefits analysis are presented. Several critical technologies needed to implement tether assisted deployment of payloads are also discussed. Conclusions and recommendations are presented.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2016

Performance Metrics, Error Modeling, and Uncertainty Quantification

A common set of statistical metrics has been used to summarize the performance of models or measurements- the most widely used ones being bias, mean square error, and linear correlation coefficient. They assume linear, additive, Gaussian errors, and they are interdependent, incomplete, and incapable of directly quantifying uncertainty. The authors demonstrate that these metrics can be directly derived from the parameters of the simple linear error model. Since a correct error model captures the full error information, it is argued that the specification of a parametric error model should be an alternative to the metrics-based approach. The error-modeling methodology is applicable to both linear and nonlinear errors, while the metrics are only meaningful for linear errors. In addition, the error model expresses the error structure more naturally, and directly quantifies uncertainty. This argument is further explained by highlighting the intrinsic connections between the performance metrics, the error model, and the joint distribution between the data and the reference.

Quantification↗