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At least 505 records · Page 28

Evaluating Recursive Blind Forecast Against API and Baseline: A Puerto Rican Case Study on Solar Irradiance for Normal and Extreme Weather

This paper leverages ongoing work in a community microgrid in Adjuntas, Puerto Rico to forecast global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and compare performance in normal and extreme weather. Given a positive correlation of 0.98 between GHI and PV power, forecasting GHI can be an effective, indirect forecast of photovoltaic (PV) power, especially in microgrids where the end-users, owners, operators, or other stakeholders are reluctant to share data for training or validation due to privacy and security concerns. A recursive one-shot (termed as "blind") forecast is, hence, formulated, wherein a gradient-boosted regression tree (GBR) is built to forecast GHI for a 7-day horizon in normal weather, and a 2-day horizon in extreme weather. To demonstrate its resilience, the architecture is trained on normal and hurricane weather GHI from 2002-2022. It is generalized on February 9-16, 2023, and on the landfall of Hurricane Nicole (Nov 4-5, 2022), respectively. Forecasts from GBR are compared against that from a satellite-based API resource and three baselines: persistence, averaging, and exponential smoothing. Results show GBR and persistence outperform sophisticated API in both types of weather for this case study.

Sundararajan, Aditya↗

Development of typical solar years and typical wind years for efficient assessment of renewable energy systems across the U.S.

Weather data plays a critical role in renewable energy analysis. Compared to using multiple Actual Meteorological Years, simulations using a single typical year require significantly fewer computational resources. Previous efforts to create typical weather datasets for renewable energy analysis either lack justified or optimized strategies for selecting and weighting different weather parameters or are limited to a few specific locations. Here, in this study, we developed a dataset comprising Typical Solar Years (TSYs) and Typical Wind Years (TWYs) for over 2000 locations across the U.S., based on data from NASA's POWER project. The strategies for creating TSYs and TWYs were optimized based on the simulated outputs of various PV systems and wind turbines in 16 representative cities. This dataset provides an efficient means for the rapid evaluation and optimization of renewable energy systems throughout the entire U.S. Additionally, the optimal strategies identified in this study can be directly applied to create near-optimal TSYs and TWYs for most locations worldwide. However, readers can also employ the optimization approach presented in this work to develop optimal strategies tailored for particular regions.

NASA POWER↗

Hydropower Advantages over Batteries in Energy Storage of Off-Grid Systems: A Case Study

Microgrids are decentralized power production systems, where the energy production and consumption are very close to each other. Microgrids generally exploit renewable energy sources, encountering a problem of storage, as the power production from solar and wind is intermittent. This research presents a new integrated methodology and discusses a comparison of batteries and pumped storage hydropower (PSH) as energy storage systems with the integration of wind and solar PV energy sources, which are the major upcoming technologies in the renewable energy sector. We implemented the simulator and optimizer model (HOMER), which develops energy availability usage to obtain optimized renewable energy integration in the microgrid, showing its economic added value. Two scenarios are run with this model—one considers batteries as an energy storage technology and the other considers PSH—in order to obtain the best economic and technical results for the analyzed microgrid. The economic analysis showed a lower net present cost (NPC) and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for the microgrid with PSH. The results showed that the microgrid with the storage of PSH was economical, with an NPC of 45.8 M€ and an LCOE of 0.379 €/kWh, in comparison with the scenario with batteries, which had an NPC of 95.2 M€ and an LCOE of 0.786 €/kWh. The role of storage was understood by differentiating the data into different seasons, using a Python model. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis was conducted by varying the capital cost multiplier of solar PV and wind turbines to obtain the best optimal economic solutions.

Guruprasad, Prajwal↗

Evaluating the Feasibility of Transactive Approach for Voltage Management Using Inverters of a PV Plant

This article evaluates the feasibility of a double-auction-based Transactive Energy System (TES) for engaging the reactive power (Var) capability of inverters in a utility-scale pho¬tovoltaic (PV) plant for voltage management in distribution feed¬ers. In this approach, a PV plant owner (seller) provides Var supply curves in terms of price-quantity pairs consider¬ing the inverters’ P-Q capability, efficiency, opportunity cost for real power curtail¬ment, losses, etc. At the same time, the utility (buyer) proposes Var demand curves in price-quantity pairs exhibiting the marginal price of Var. Then, market clearing points are obtained from the intersection points of supply and demand curves which are then used to create Var dispatch sig-nals from the PV plant. To conduct a fea¬sibility study of this approach, an Australian distribution network with a utility-scale PV plant (capacity 3.275 MWP) is modeled in RSCAD and simu¬lated in real-time on MATLAB, RSCAD-RTDS co-simulation platform using real historical data. Consid¬ering a use case, namely, conservation voltage reduction (CVR), the operational feasibility along with cost-benefit analysis is demonstrated in software-in-the-loop (SIL) and hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) platform. Another use case, exploring the benefit from tap-change reduction of step-voltage-regulator, is investigated. These studies explore further use cases, e.g., PV hosting capacity, network reconfiguration, etc., to be incorporated in TES for experiencing substantial economic benefits.

Alam, Mollah Rezaul↗

Empirical Estimation of the Energy Impacts of Projects Installed through Residential Property Assessed Clean Energy Financing Programs in California

We examine the energy use impacts of energy efficiency and solar PV projects financed by residential property assessed clean energy (R-PACE) programs in California. We leverage household-level interval meter data to apply normalized metered energy consumption (NMEC) methods at significant scale—more than 25,000 electric meters and more than 15,000 gas meters. We develop a comparison group to account for non-project-related changes in usage. The projects include homes that replaced existing HVAC equipment with higher-efficiency units and homes that installed central heating or air conditioning equipment for the first time. We have limited information on pre-project household equipment stock so we develop a method to infer new installations. We find that projects that installed energy efficiency technologies reduce electricity consumption by approximately 3% and gas consumption by approximately 3.5% on average. When we remove homes that installed new cooling and heating equipment for the first time, savings rise to approximately 5% for electricity and approximately 6% for gas. Given the California climate and the results of an existing study of similar California projects, these results are in line with expectations. Solar PV projects produce electricity that offsets approximately 69% of household electricity consumption on average. We estimate that California R-PACE projects installed through the end of 2019 produce annual reductions in grid-tied electricity consumption of 506 GWh (equivalent to the electricity consumption of approximately 74,000 California households) and gas consumption reductions of 2 million therms (equivalent to the gas consumption of approximately 4700 California households) in a typical weather year.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

The “Fresnel Equations” for Diffuse radiation on Inclined photovoltaic Surfaces (FEDIS)

Here the well-known Fresnel equations solve for the reflection and transmission of light for precise incident angles. The transmission of diffuse radiation incident on a planar or domed surface is often needed for real-world applications. Due to the complexity of the Fresnel equations, the analytical solution of the integration has hitherto been unobtainable over the last centuries. Therefore, this problem was numerically solved by integrating the angular transmittances in space often leading to substantial computing burden and bias in the results. To efficiently estimate the solar energy resource for a glass-covered photovoltaic (PV) module, we derive an analytical solution of diffuse transmission based on the rigorous integration of an alternate form of the Fresnel equations. The approach leads to a simple yet accurate relative transmittance model that reconciles the solar energy sensed by pyranometers and PV panels. With limited and clearly stated approximations, the complex mathematical derivation resulted in an elegant solution. An experiment using 1-year of data at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Solar Radiation Research Laboratory (SRRL) shows that the new model dramatically decreases the disparity between the solar radiation measurements by a Kipp and Zonen CM Pyranometer 22 (CMP22) and an IMT reference cell on a 1-axis tracking system. The solution in this paper can be widely used in scientific and engineering research, development, and applications wherever the Fresnel equations are used.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Proactive Intrusion Detection and Mitigation System

SAND2023-05661O The proactive intrusion detection and mitigation system (PIDMS) provides grid-edge situational awareness for cybersecurity defense by capturing real-time distributed energy resource (DER) network traffic and performance data with a novel approach that improves the detection and prevention of cyber-physical attacks. The PIDMS addresses the grid-edge security gap with real-time analysis of both network traffic and photovoltaic performance data to deliver a novel, cyber-physical intrusion detection system (IDS) approach that increases the accuracy and effectiveness of detection and mitigation. This hybrid IDS analysis enables dual monitoring that increases the workload of the adversary; both cyber and physical data would have to be simultaneously spoofed to evade detection. Furthermore, monitoring and analyzing cyber data are insufficient in some cases. For example, in an insider threat aimed at disrupting inverter grid-support functions where proper credentials and authentication are achieved, only the altered PV performance would indicate abnormal behavior. All in all, the PIDMS provides novel capabilities for: • Distributed, real-time cyber-physical detection and mitigation analysis • Cybersecurity defense for grid-edge systems • Analysis framework that can provide situational awareness across the transmission, distribution, and DER systems The PIDMS sensor is designed to collect cyber-physical data, process the data using machine-learning algorithms, detect abnormal events, and deploy mitigations. With these goals, the main functional PIDMS objectives are: • Capability to collect cyber-physical data • Onboard storage of cyber-physical data • Peer-to-peer communication • Computationally efficient machine-learning algorithms • Online cyber-physical data analysis • Alerting/visualization capabilities • Mitigation deployment capability with bump-in-the-wire (BITW) implementation Each of these functional objectives enable PIDMS to perform effective cyber-physical intrusion detection and mitigation. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Jones, Christian↗

Performance of Photovoltaic Systems Recorded by Open Solar Performance and Reliability Clearinghouse (oSPARC)

This article analyzes data from 2,200 photovoltaic systems collected through the Open Solar Performance and Reliability Clearinghouse (oSPARC, 2018) to draw conclusions about the measured performance of the systems, how it compares to expectations, and how wide the variation is. The systems range in size from 2 kW to 1,200 kW, with an average size of 229 kW, and were activated in oSPARC between March 13, 2007 and Dec. 16, 2016. Data regarding co-incident insolation and ambient temperature are provided through the oSPARC platform for the population of systems and summarized here. Results indicate that - after correcting for measured insolation, derating for temperature, and correcting for balance-of-system efficiency and degradation as a result of system age - the performance ratio of these 2,200 systems averages 91.7%. Adjusting for known parameters such as age and efficiency, the ratio would ideally be 100%. Thus, the 'underperformance' of this system sample is measured at 9.3% and suggests that as much as 9.3% could be recovered if the systems were caused to perform as expected through optimal operation and maintenance. Efforts to correlate the performance ratio with environmental conditions resulted in very low coefficients of regression, but the method already normalizes for actual site insolation and temperature, which are responsible for much of the site-specific variation. An exemption is air-quality nonattainment areas, where the measured performance of plants averages 86.9% and is consistently lower than the average of 95.9% in areas that are in compliance with air quality standards, likely because of particulate matter such as diesel soot exacerbating the soiling rate.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Safer Foundation Solar Demands Skill Collaborative

The milestones and accomplishments achieved in Safer’s Solar Demands Skill Training program required a collective effort of stakeholders. The ability to achieve the desired results and impact lives of the population we serve works best when collaborating with community stakeholders such as community-based organizations, faith-based organizations, community activists, local law enforcement, community residents, employers, and elected and appointed officials. We are working harder than ever to place clients in-demand careers and high-growth industry sectors. Our employer engagement with high growth sectors continues to increase, we have been able to deepen our relationships in this space by providing in demand stackable credential training. Launched our initiative in the green job space by partnering with organizations like ComEd, the Department of Energy, community-based organizations, faith-based organizations, and manufacturers that helped to train clients in the green jobs and renewable energy space. By the end of the year, we will have completed our tenth cohort of photovoltaic solar installation training. The training has been used as a foundation for solar panel installers to acquire new skills in in the green jobs career pathways, such as sales and customer service. It has also served as a pipeline to union-level trade positions through the skills participants obtained through partnership engagement. Safer Foundation's policy and advocacy team plays a major role in expanding opportunities for people with records to over one hundred occupations, including the trades. This reform has allowed many to secure living wage employment, reducing the high recidivism rate within Illinois. Safer continues to build our social enterprise with Reconstructive Technology Partners (RTP). RTP is introducing people with records to the construction trades such as solar, carpentry and electrical through residential remodeling of homes on smaller construction projects. Understanding the need to have a greater community presence, outreach was extended to a boots on the ground model, including, but not limited to door-to-door engagement, DE-EE0008571 Safer Foundation Page 4 of 29 local radio broadcasting and print ads in local newspapers. We continue to seek innovative ways to increase Safer Foundations' presence in the renewable energy space. Outreach efforts gave us an opportunity to share critical reentry information and opportunities about our PV installer program. Giving us reach with local and national audiences alike. We launched a systematic approach to improving client data and client tracking through an evidence-based practices initiative. That implemented an agency wide cross-functional data management system. The system supported our goal of reviewing, evaluating, and making recommendations to improve operational processes, program delivery, information sharing, and more. Played a significant part in the success of the solar program. Finally, economists around the nation agree that there is a significant labor shortage. The shortage directly threatens our ability to sustain our economic growth; if employers do not have access to the workers they need, it can lead to a shutdown in the economic recovery. The demand for Safer Foundation services is more important and impactful than ever. We will continue to build upon our 50 years of experience to address the challenges ahead and serve more people in a better way. We are confident we will accomplish beautiful things that benefit everyone involved because together, we are powerful.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Residential and Small Commercial Solar Photovoltaic and Storage Permitting, Inspection, and Interconnection Timelines: A Retrospective Review (2017-2023)

This report is part of the ongoing Solar Time-Based Residential Analytics and Cycle Time Estimator (SolarTRACE) project, led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The SolarTRACE project utilizes time-stamped project-level data provided by installer-partners to assess nationwide and AHJ- and utility-level PI&I and other solar PV adoption timelines since 2017. Our dataset now covers 22% of residential solar and 33% of residential storage installs in the U.S. since 2017. This report provides an update to our previous 2022 report (Cruce et al., 2022b) and includes: updated 2017 2023 project timelines for residential rooftop solar PV up to 20kW; updated tracking of permitting process changes at nearly 4,000 AHJs nationwide; and first-ever reporting of timelines for residential PV+storage projects up to 20kW.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

U.S. Solar Photovoltaic BESS System Cost Benchmark Q1 2020 Report

NREL has been modeling U.S. solar photovoltaic (PV) system costs since 2009. This year, our report benchmarks costs of U.S. PV for residential, commercial, and utility-scale systems, with and without storage, built in the first quarter of 2020 (Q1 2020). The methodology includes bottom-up accounting for all system and project-development costs incurred when installing residential, commercial, and utility-scale systems and it models the capital costs and levelized cost of energy for such systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Detection of Cyber Attacks in Grid-tied PV Systems Using Dynamic Watermarking

This paper presents of an active detection scheme for detecting cyber attacks on sensors controlling a grid-tied PV systems. Several cyber vulnerabilities in Grid tied PV Systems are discussed. The defense mechanism introduces a private (secret) watermarking signal into the control inputs of the grid-tied inverter system. This will enable the detection of any malicious manipulation of sensor measurements. Based on the measured data, two statistical tests are conducted to identify anomalies in the system using the presence of the watermarking signal. It shown that when a sensor data is compromised and/or replaced by a pre-recorded healthy signal, both test 1 and 2 exhibit high values indicating a possible malicious activity. The robustness of the proposed algorithm is tested and validated with several attack scenarios on a grid tied PV system. Select results from an experimental setup are discussed.

Ibrahim, Hasan↗

Comprehensive Evaluation of Agrivoltaics Research: Breadth, Depth, and Insights for Future Research

Agrivoltaics integrates agricultural production with solar energy generation to address challenges related to land use, food security, and renewable energy development. This study provides the most comprehensive evaluation to date of global agrivoltaic research, aiming to classify the literature, identify strengths and gaps, and guide future work. We systematically screened over 3000 English-language publications through 2023 for relevant agrivoltaic publications. A total of 670 studies were categorized in the InSPIRE Data Portal across five agrivoltaic activities and multiple hierarchical themes, including physical, biological, technological, social, and crosscutting domains. We found that research was concentrated on crop production, microclimate dynamics, and PV performance, with gaps in areas like human health, wildlife, policy, and standardized methodologies. Although the U.S. emphasizes animal grazing and habitat-based systems in practice, most U.S.-based studies focused disproportionately on crop production. The analysis revealed uneven geographic and topical representation and highlighted a lack of integrated, interdisciplinary approaches. This study concludes that while agrivoltaic research has grown rapidly, more coordinated efforts could support standardized data collection, address overlooked ecological and social impacts, and align research focus with real-world system implementation, ultimately improving the scalability and successful deployment of agrivoltaic systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Implications of Battery Storage for Solar Net-Metering Reforms

Compensation structures for residential solar PV are evolving toward a model that incentivizes the use of battery storage to maximize solar self-consumption. Using metered data from 1,800 residential customers across six U.S. utilities, we show that batteries operated solely in this manner often provide no grid value, due to misalignment with market prices. Incentivizing customers to discharge storage in response to market prices, particularly on infrequent peak load days would greatly enhance storage dispatch value. However, doing so requires consideration of local distribution network impacts. We illustrate a net billing design that yields a storage dispatch value equal to 50-70% of its maximum potential market value, without materially degrading solar self-consumption levels or increasing local grid stress.

Barbose, Galen↗

Addressing the split incentive challenge for rooftop solar PV and battery energy storage in multifamily rental buildings (CRADA 638 Final Report)

This project advances the understanding of how roof solar PV systems and battery energy storage systems (BESS) can be effectively deployed in multifamily residential buildings, a sector that has historically faced barriers due to misaligned incentives between landlords and tenants. By leveraging high-resolution building stock data and simulation tools, the research demonstrates how energy consumption patterns vary across building types, climates, and occupant characteristics, and how these variations influence the optimal sizing and operation of distributed energy resources. A key contribution is the development of a publicly accessible, web-based tool named RESIDE (Residential Energy Systems & Infrastructure Data Evaluation) that allows users to explore building energy use and evaluate solar and battery configurations without requiring specialized expertise. This significantly lowers the barrier to entry for stakeholders such as property owners, utilities, and policymakers. From a technical perspective, the project shows that integrating rooftop solar PV with battery energy storage can substantially reduce electricity costs and peak demand through strategies such as energy arbitrage and peak shaving. The modeling framework incorporates real-world constraints, including time-of-use electricity pricing and battery degradation, providing realistic and actionable insights. Economically, the results indicate that properly sized systems can deliver meaningful cost savings, improving the feasibility of energy investments in multifamily housing. More broadly, the project benefits the public by supporting the transition to affordable and reliable energy, particularly in rental multifamily housing where adoption has traditionally lagged.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A Photovoltaic MPPT Charge Controller Real-Time Testbed for Cybersecurity Applications

The increasing deployment of distributed energy resources (DER) over the last decade is a great ally to combat climate change and strengthen the grid during increasingly common extreme weather events. However, DER systems, combined with the ongoing transition to a digital power grid, also pose substantial cybersecurity threats. One of the most common communication protocols used in DER integration is the Distributed Network Protocol 3 (DNP3), which is known to have many security vulnerabilities. Thus, it is essential to investigate cyberattack behaviors and mitigation on power systems using DNP3. In this paper, we designed and implemented a cybersecurity testbed for a simulated photovoltaic (PV) maximum power point tracking (MPPT) charge controller. Our testbed uses an MPPT charge controller simulated on a Typhoon HIL602+ real-time simulator with a real DNP3 communication connection over TCP/IP, allowing for safe and efficient monitoring and manipulation of data traffic between the simulated hardware and supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗