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At least 505 records · Page 28

Deviser - An AI planner for spacecraft operations

The 'Deviser III' automated spacecraft mission planner prototype can plan complete Voyager spacecraft operational sequences consisting of over 100 data capture goals, working 10-50 times faster than a human analyst. The planner generates a loop-free network of actions and events resembling a program evaluation and review technique chart. Actions, events, and inferences are the building blocks from which plans are assembled. It is noted that, for a very large spacecraft mission plan, the backtracking through remembered decision trees entailed by this artificial intelligence system can consume megabite quantities of computer memory.

Vere, S. A.↗

History of Metal Veins in Acapulcoite-Lodranite Clan Meteorite GRA 95209

Graves Nunataks (GRA) 95209 has been hailed as the missing link of core formation processes in the acapulcoitelodranite parent asteroid because of the presence of a complex cm-scale metal vein network. Because the apparent liquid temperature of the metal vein (approximately 1500 C) is higher than inferred for the metamorphic grade of the meteorite, questions regarding the vein s original composition, temperature, and mechanism of emplacement have arisen. We have determined trace siderophile element compositions of metals in veins and surrounding matrix in an effort to clarify matters. We analyzed metals in GRA 95209 in a portion of thick metal vein and adjacent metal-rich (30-40 modal%), sulfide poor (less than 1%) matrix by EPMA and LA-ICP-MS for major and trace siderophile elements using methods described by [3]. We also examined metals from a metal-poor (approximately 15 modal%) and relatively sulfide-rich (2-5 modal%) region of the sample. Kamacite is the dominant metal phase in all portions of the sample. In comparison to matrix metal, vein metal contains more schreibersite and less tetrataenite, and is less commonly associated with Fe,Mn,Mg-bearing phosphates and graphite. Vein kamacite contains higher Co, P, and Cr and lower Cu and Ge. These minor variations aside, all metal types in GRA 95209 are fairly homogeneous in terms of their levels of enrichment of compatible siderophile elements (e.g. Pt, Ir, Os) relative to incompatible siderophile elements (e.g. As, Pd, Au), consistent with the loss of metal-sulfide partial melt that characterizes much of the clan. Whatever compositional differences between matrix and vein metal that may have originally existed, they have since largely co-equilibrated to similar restitic trace element compositions. We agree with [2] that metal veins, in their present state, do not represent a liquid composition. The original vein liquid was much more S-rich and emplaced at correspondingly lower liquid temperatures. Much of the Fe,Ni component solidified in cm scale conduits while S-rich melts were expelled and continued to migrate by percolation. The higher troilite content in metal poor regions of the sample results mostly from trapping of a small portion of these melts. The troilite is not remnant primary sulfide. Strong depletions of W, Mo, and especially Ga (greater than 50%, greater than 60%, and greater than 90% depletion, respectively) in metals of the metalpoor GRA 95209 lithology are localized at scales of 10-100 micrometers in the vicinity of graphite spherules. These depletions must have occurred below the temperatures at which cm-scale equilibration occurred, and future work will seek to determine their cause.

Herrin, J. S.↗

A Process Model of Interpersonal Relationship Formation in Isolated and Confined Environments

Future space crews will face several challenges such as living and working in a confined environment, isolated from others. These circumstances increase the importance of interpersonal compatibility, teamwork, and team performance. The interpersonal compatibility of space crews has been and continues to be of interest to both NASA and the Institute of Biomedical Problems (IBMP), whose research informs operations for Roscosmos. In NASA-sponsored research, interpersonal compatibility has been examined in terms of how the combination of team members’ personality traits, values, and demographics shape team member relationships and team performance overtime. IBMP-sponsored research mostly has moved away from trait-based approaches toward an idiographic (in-depth, heavily descriptive) approach to researching crew interpersonal relations. This research uses software such as Personal Self-Perception and Attitudes (PSPA), network approaches to team member relations, and content analysis of interactions to assess interpersonal compatibility, and infer states and team dynamics. Our research program integrated these ideas. Our primary research aim was to develop and empirically test a process model of interpersonal relationship formation in isolated and confinement environments. We created a model, collected data from teams in an isolated and confined environment, and applied a novel analytical strategy that combines trait, state, and interaction data (i.e., relational events). We focused specifically on the formation of strained relationships in isolation and confinement—or with whom fellow crewmembers find it difficult to work.

S T Bell↗

Extensive Characterization of Aerosol Optical Properties and Chemical Component Concentrations: Application of the GRASP/Component Approach to Long-term AERONET Measurements

A recently developed GRASP/Component approach (GRASP: Generalized Retrieval of Atmosphere and Surface Properties) was applied to AERONET (Aeronet Robotic Network) sun photometer measurements in this study. Unlike traditional aerosol component retrieval, this approach allows the inference of some information about aerosol composition directly from measured radiance, rather than indirectly through the inversion of optical parameters, and has been integrated into the GRASP algorithm. The newly developed GRASP/Component approach was applied to 13 AERONET sites for different aerosol types under the assumption of aerosol internal mixing rules to analyze the characteristics of aerosol components and their distribution patterns. The results indicate that the retrievals can characterize well the spatial and temporal variability of the component concentration for different aerosol types. A reasonable agreement between GRASP BC retrievals and MERRA-2 BC products is found for all different aerosol types. In addition, the relationships between aerosol component content and aerosol optical parameters such as aerosol optical depth (AOD), fine-mode fraction (FMF), absorption Ångström exponent (AAE), scattering Ångström exponent (SAE), and single scattering albedo (SSA) are also analyzed for indirect verifying the reliability of the component retrieval. It was demonstrated the GRASP/Component optical retrievals are in good agreement with AERONET standard products [e.g., correlation coefficient (R) of 0.93–1.0 for AOD, fine-mode AOD (AODF), coarse-mode AOD (AODC) and Ångström exponent (AE); R = ~ 0.8 for absorption AOD (AAOD) and SSA; RMSE (root mean square error) < 0.03 for AOD, AODF, AODC, AAOD and SSA]. Thus, it is demonstrated the GRASP/Component approach can provide aerosol optical products with comparable accuracy as the AERONET standard products from the ground-based sun photometer measurements as well as some additional important inside on aerosol composition.

Xindan Zhang↗

SO2 Emissions and Lifetimes: Estimates from Inverse Modeling Using In Situ and Global, Space-Based (SCIAMACHY and OMI) Observations

Top-down constraints on global sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions are inferred through inverse modeling using SO2 column observations from two satellite instruments (SCIAMACHY and OMI). We first evaluated the S02 column observations with surface SO2 measurements by applying local scaling factors from a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to SO2 columns retrieved from the satellite instruments. The resulting annual mean surface SO2 mixing ratios for 2006 exhibit a significant spatial correlation (r=0.86, slope=0.91 for SCIAMACHY and r=0.80, slope = 0.79 for OMI) with coincident in situ measurements from monitoring networks throughout the United States and Canada. We evaluate the GEOS-Chem simulation of the SO2 lifetime with that inferred from in situ measurements to verity the applicability of GEOS-Chem for inversion of SO2 columns to emissions. The seasonal mean SO2 lifetime calculated with the GEOS-Chem model over the eastern United States is 13 h in summer and 48 h in winter, compared to lifetimes inferred from in situ measurements of 19 +/- 7 h in summer and 58 +/- 20 h in winter. We apply SO2 columns from SCIAMACHY and OMI to derive a top-down anthropogenic SO2 emission inventory over land by using the local GEOS-Chem relationship between SO2 columns and emissions. There is little seasonal variation in the top-down emissions (<15%) over most major industrial regions providing some confidence in the method. Our global estimate for annual land surface anthropogenic SO2 emissions (52.4 Tg S/yr from SCIAMACHY and 49.9 Tg S / yr from OMI) closely agrees with the bottom-up emissions (54.6 Tg S/yr) in the GEOS-Chem model and exhibits consistency in global distributions with the bottom-up emissions (r = 0.78 for SCIAMACHY, and r = 0.77 for OMI). However, there are significant regional differences.

Lee, Chulkyu↗

Hi-C2.1 Observations of Solar Jetlets at Edges of Network Lanes

We present high resolution (0.2”) high cadence (5s) extreme ultraviolet (EUV) observations of small-­scale jetlet-­like features and spicule-­like features observed with NASA’s High-­resolution Coronal Imager2.1 (Hi-C) during its 5‐min observing span. We investigate the magnetic setting of 4 on-disk jetlets and 2 on-­disk spicules by using high resolution 172A images from Hi-­‐C and EUV images from Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) and line-­of-­sight magnetograms from SDO/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI). The jetlets and spicules are at edges of magnetic network lanes. From magnetograms co-­aligned with the Hi-­C and AIA images, we find that the jetlets stem from sites of likely flux cancelation between merging majority-polarity and weaker minority-­polarity flux, but in contrast to larger jetlets observed by IRIS some do not show obvious enhanced brightenings at their base. Based on the similarity of these observations of approx. 4 obvious Hi-­C small jetlets with our previous observations of 10 IRIS larger jetlets and approx. 30 coronal jets in quiet regions and coronal holes, we infer that flux cancelation is probably the essential process in the buildup and triggering of jetlets. Our observations suggest that network jetlet eruptions, large and small, are small-scale analogs of both larger-­scale coronal jet eruptions and the still-­larger-­scale eruptions that makemajor CMEs. For simplicitywe will use termjetlets for jetlet-­like features and spicules for spicule-­like features.

Panesar, Navdeep K.↗

Statistically-informed deep learning for gravitational wave parameter estimation

We introduce deep learning models to estimate the masses of the binary components of black hole mergers, $(m_1,m_2)$, and three astrophysical properties of the post-merger compact remnant, namely, the final spin, $a_\mathrm f$, and the frequency and damping time of the ringdown oscillations of the fundamental $\ell = m = 2$ bar mode, $(\omega_\mathrm R, \omega_\mathrm I)$. Our neural networks combine a modified WaveNet architecture with contrastive learning and normalizing flow. We validate these models against a Gaussian conjugate prior family whose posterior distribution is described by a closed analytical expression. Upon confirming that our models produce statistically consistent results, we used them to estimate the astrophysical parameters $(m_1,m_2, a_\mathrm f, \omega_\mathrm R, \omega_\mathrm I)$ of five binary black holes: GW150914, GW170104, GW170814, GW190521 and GW190630. We use PyCBC Inference to directly compare traditional Bayesian methodologies for parameter estimation with our deep learning based posterior distributions. Our results show that our neural network models predict posterior distributions that encode physical correlations, and that our data-driven median results and 90% confidence intervals are similar to those produced with gravitational wave Bayesian analyses. This methodology requires a single V100 NVIDIA GPU to produce median values and posterior distributions within two milliseconds for each event. Furthermore, this neural network, and a tutorial for its use, are available at the Data and Learning Hub for Science.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Binary Complex Neural Network Acceleration on FPGA

Being able to learn from complex data with phase information is imperative for many signal processing applications. Today’s real-valued deep neural networks (DNNs) have shown efficiency in latent information analysis but fall short when applied to the complex domain. Deep complex networks (DCN) , in contrast, can learn from complex data, but have high computational costs; therefore, they cannot satisfy the instant decision making requirements of many deployable systems dealing with short observations or short signal bursts. Recent, Binarized Complex Neural Network (BCNN), which integrates DCNs with binarized neural networks (BNN), shows great potential in classifying complex data in real-time. In this paper, we propose a structural pruning based accelerator of BCNN, which is able to provide more than 5000 frames/s inference throughput on edge devices. The high performance comes from both the algorithm and hardware sides. On the algorithm side, we conduct structural pruning to the original BCNN models and obtain 20 × pruning rates with negligible accuracy loss; on the hardware side, we propose a novel 2D convolution operation accelerator for the binary complex neural network. Experimental results show that the proposed design works with over 90% utilization and is able to achieve the inference throughput of 5882 frames/s and 4938 frames/s for complex NIN-Net and ResNet-18 using CIFAR-10 dataset and Alveo U280 Board.

Peng, Hongwu↗

SatNet: A Benchmark for Satellite Scheduling Optimization

Satellites provide essential services such as networking and weather tracking, and the number of near-earth and deep space satellites are expected to grow rapidly in the coming years. Communications with terrestrial ground stations is one of the critical functionalities of any space mission. Satellite scheduling is a problem that has been scientifically investigated since the 1970s. A central aspect of this problem is the need to consider resource contention and satellite visibility constraints as they require line of sight. Due to the combinatorial nature of the problem, prior solutions such as linear programs and evolutionary algorithms require extensive compute capabilities to output a feasible schedule for each scenario. Machine learning based scheduling can provide an alternative solution by training a model with historical data and generating a schedule quickly with model inference. We present SatNet, a benchmark for satellite scheduling optimization based on historical data from the NASA Deep Space Network. We propose formulation of the satellite scheduling problem as a Markov Decision Process and use reinforcement learning (RL) policies to generate schedules. The nature of constraints imposed by SatNet differ from other combinatorial optimization problems such as vehicle routing studied in prior literature. Our initial results indicate that RL is an alternative optimization approach that can generate candidate solutions of comparable quality to existing state-of-the-practice results. However, we also find that RL policies overfit to the training dataset and do not generalize well to new data, thereby necessitating continued research on reusable and generalizable agents.

Wilson, Brian↗

MOOSE ProbML: Parallelizable Probabilistic Machine Learning and Uncertainty Quantification Capabilities

The Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) is a widely used open- source finite element software for performing multiphysics multiscale simulations in a massively parallel fashion. Recently, the computational team at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has implemented Probabilistic Machine Learning (ProbML) capabilities in MOOSE—in a parallelized fashion—and enable active learning with large-scale computational models for tasks such as surrogate model development, scale bridging, forward/inverse uncertainty quantification (UQ), Bayesian optimization, etc. This presentation summarizes these developments in MOOSE along with demonstrations on several real applications relevant to nuclear energy. At the fundamental level, samplers like Monte Carlo/Latin Hypercube, variance reduction, parallelized Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) support uncertainty propagation in both forward and inverse settings. These samplers can be integrated with the Gaussian processes (GP) suite in MOOSE, which offer several variants like scalar GPs, multi-output GPs, and deep GPs, to enable active learning. These GPs can be tuned using gradient-based optimization methods like Adam and its variants or gradient-free methods like the elliptical slice sampler (a variant of MCMC adept under Gaussian settings) for more complex covariance kernels or likelihoods whose gradient computations can be cumbersome. A variety of batch acquisition functions permit parallelized evaluation of the computational model and support different learning objectives with high efficiency like Bayesian inference, global surrogate development, optimization, etc. Furthermore, libtorch integration supports training, evaluation, and re-training of neural networks and other complex machine learning models in active learning settings. The impacts of these developments are shown on several real applications: (1) nuclear fuel inverse UQ and model inadequacy assessment using the Kennedy O’Hagan framework; (2) uncertainty aware surrogate modeling for additive manufacturing to predict field quantities; (3) nuclear reactor rare events analysis; and (4) complex fluid flow prediction using a global surrogate with quantified prediction uncertainty. Finally, the outlook of MOOSE ProbML is discussed for both outer-loop and inner-loop computations in the broad view to accelerate fuels and materials qualification, address gaps in knowledge and data, and assess new reactor/fuel systems.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Efficient bifurcation and tabulation of multi-dimensional combustion manifolds using deep mixture of experts: An a priori study

This work describes and validates an approach for autonomously bifurcating turbulent combustion man-ifolds to divide regression tasks amongst specialized artificial neural networks (ANNs). This approach relies on the mixture of experts (MoE) framework, where each neural network is trained to be specialized in a given portion of the input space. The assignment of different input regions to the experts is determined by a gating network, which is a neural network classifier. In some previous studies, it has been demonstrated that bifurcation of a complex combustion manifold and fitting different ANNs for each part leads to better fits or faster inference speeds. However, the manner of bifurcation in these studies was based on heuristic approaches or clustering techniques. In contrast, the proposed technique enables automatic bifurcation using non-linear planes in high-dimensional turbulent combustion manifolds that are often associated with complex behavior due to different dominating physics in various zones. Furthermore, the proposed concept is validated using 4-dimensional (4D) and 5D flamelet tables, showing that the errors obtained with a given network size, or conversely the network size required to achieve a given accuracy, is considerably reduced. The effect of the number of experts on inference speed is also investigated, showing that by increasing the number of experts from 1 to 8, the inference time can be approximately reduced by a factor of two. Moreover, it is shown that the MoE approach divides the input manifold in a physically intuitive manner, suggesting that the MoE framework can elucidate high-dimensional datasets in a physically meaningful way.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Deducing the EOS of dense neutron star matter with machine learning

Abstract The interior of a neutron star is a unique astrophysical laboratory for studying matter at extreme densities and pressures beyond what is replicable in terrestrial experiments. While there is no direct way to simulate the interior of these stars, one promising avenue to learning more about the equation of state (EOS) of such matter is through X‐rays emitted from the star's surface. The current state‐of‐the‐art method for inference of EOS from a star's X‐ray spectra uses piece‐wise, simulation‐based likelihoods that rely on theoretical assumptions complicated by systematic uncertainties. To reduce the dimensionality of the problem, this method infers macroscopic properties of the star (mass and radius) from emitted X‐ray spectra, and from those quantities infers the EOS. This work approaches the same problem using machine learning techniques, demonstrating a series of enhancements to the current state‐of‐the‐art by realistic uncertainty quantification and reducing the need for theoretical assumptions. We also demonstrate novel inference of the EOS directly from high‐dimensional simulated X‐ray spectra from neutron stars that negate the need for a piece‐wise approach. This inference allows for a natural propagation of uncertainties from the X‐ray spectra by conditioning the discussed networks on realistic sources of uncertainty for each star.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

In-situ sensor monitoring of multi-class gas porosity formation in laser powder bed fusion using convolutional neural network

In-situ monitoring of defect formation remains a significant challenge in the laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) process. Recent advances have enabled real-time defect detection with machine learning and in-situ sensing technologies; however, most studies focus on binary classification of keyhole pores, limiting nuanced multi-class pore differentiation and formation mechanisms. This work introduces a multi-class pore detection framework (no pore, small pores < 15 µm, and large pores > 15 µm) by leveraging photodiode sensor data alongside high-fidelity synchrotron X-ray imaging. The 15 µm threshold is selected to distinguish between two fundamentally different defect mechanisms, following the physical size-mechanism boundary established by prior high-resolution synchrotron X-ray characterization of Al6061 LPBF. Distinguishing these classes is critical because large keyhole pores are structurally detrimental, whereas small gas pores are often benign, requiring different process control strategies. Thermal emission monitoring data collected simultaneously with high-speed X-ray imaging at the Stanford Synchrotron Radiation Lightsource (SSRL), are correlated with subsurface melt pool dynamics to establish ground truth. Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) with optimized parameters converts the photodiode time-series signals into time–frequency images, facilitating feature extraction. Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) are then applied for real-time multi-class pore classification in an average inference time of 1 ms per signal window. It achieves 79% accuracy and an Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC ROC) score of 0.89 with five-fold cross-validation. The results demonstrate that coupling CWT-based feature engineering with CNN architecture enables reliable multi-class pore detection in Al6061 builds using affordable in-situ sensors. This approach advances scalable and affordable quality assurance in additive manufacturing by moving beyond binary defect detection toward more nuanced classification of porosity mechanisms with in-situ sensors and machine learning.

Laser powder bed fusion, Multi-class pores, In-sit↗

Multimodal representation learning for predicting molecule–disease relations

Motivation: Predicting molecule–disease indications and side effects is important for drug development and pharmacovigilance. Comprehensively mining molecule–molecule, molecule–disease and disease–disease semantic dependencies can potentially improve prediction performance. Methods: We introduce a Multi-Modal REpresentation Mapping Approach to Predicting molecular-disease relations (M2REMAP) by incorporating clinical semantics learned from electronic health records (EHR) of 12.6 million patients. Specifically, M2REMAP first learns a multimodal molecule representation that synthesizes chemical property and clinical semantic information by mapping molecule chemicals via a deep neural network onto the clinical semantic embedding space shared by drugs, diseases and other common clinical concepts. To infer molecule–disease relations, M2REMAP combines multimodal molecule representation and disease semantic embedding to jointly infer indications and side effects. Results: We extensively evaluate M2REMAP on molecule indications, side effects and interactions. Results show that incorporating EHR embeddings improves performance significantly, for example, attaining an improvement over the baseline models by 23.6% in PRC-AUC on indications and 23.9% on side effects. Further, M2REMAP overcomes the limitation of existing methods and effectively predicts drugs for novel diseases and emerging pathogens. Availability and implementation: The code is available at https://github.com/celehs/M2REMAP, and prediction results are provided at https://shiny.parse-health.org/drugs-diseases-dev/.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

How Well are Recent Climate Variability Signals Resolved by Satellite Radiative Flux Estimates?

One notable aspect of Earth s climate is that although the planet appears to be very close to radiative balance at top-of-atmosphere (TOA), the atmosphere itself and underlying surface are not. Profound exchanges of energy between the atmosphere and oceans, land and cryosphere occur over a range of time scales. Recent evidence from broadband satellite measurements suggests that even these TOA fluxes contain some detectable variations. Our ability to measure and reconstruct radiative fluxes at the surface and at the top of atmosphere is improving rapidly. Understanding the character of radiative flux estimates and relating them to variations in other energy fluxes and climate state variables is key to improving our understanding of climate. In this work we will evaluate several recently released estimates of radiative fluxes, focusing primarily on surface estimates. The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project FD radiative flux profiles are available from rnid-1983 to near present and have been constructed by driving the radiative transfer physics from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) global model with ISCCP clouds and HlRS operational soundings profiles. Full and clear sky SW and LW fluxes are produced. A similar product from the NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget Project using different radiative flux codes and thermodynamics from the NASA/Goddard Earth Observing System assimilation model makes a similar calculation of surface fluxes. However this data set currently extends only through 1995. Several estimates of downward LW flux at the surface inferred from microwave data are also examined. Since these products have been evaluated with Baseline Surface Radiation Network data over land we focus over ocean regions and use the DOE/NOAA/NASA Shipboard Ocean Atmospheric Radiation (SOAR) surface flux measurements to characterize performance of these data sets under both clear and cloudy conditions. Some aspects of performance are stratified according to SST and vertical motion regimes. Comparisons to the TRMM/CERES SRB data in 1998 are also interpreted. These radiative fluxes are then analyzed to determine how surface (and TOA) radiative exchanges respond to interannual signals of ENS0 warm and cold events. Our analysis includes regional changes as well as integrated signals over land, ocean and various latitude bands. Changes in water vapor and cloud forcing signatures are prominent on interannual time scales. Prominent signals are also found in the SW fluxes for the Pinatubo volcanic event. These systematic changes in fluxes are related to changes in large-scale circulations and energy transport in the atmosphere and ocean. Some estimates of signal-to-noise and reliability are discussed to place our results in context.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Retrievals from Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (ACE) Solar Occultation Measurements

The Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment ACE satellite (SCISAT-1) was launched into an inclined orbit on 12 August 2003 and is now recording high signal-to-noise 0.02 per centimeter resolution solar absorption spectra covering 750-4400 per centimeter (2.3-13 micrometers). A procedure has been developed for retrieving average dry air CO2 mole fractions (X(sub CO2)) in the altitude range 7-10 kilometers from the SCISAT-1 spectra. Using the N2 continuum absorption in a window region near 2500 per centimeter, altitude shifts are applied to the tangent heights retrieved in version 2.2 SCISAT-1 processing, while cloudy or aerosol-impacted measurements are eliminated. Monthly-mean XCO2 covering 60 S to 60 N latitude for February 2004 to March 2008 has been analyzed with consistent trends inferred in both hemispheres. The ACE XCO2 time series have been compared with previously-reported surface network measurements, predictions based on upper tropospheric aircraft measurements, and space-based measurements. The retrieved X(sub CO2) from the ACE-FTS spectra are higher on average by a factor of 1.07 plus or minus 0.025 in the northern hemisphere and by a factor of 1.09 plus or minus 0.019 on average in the southern hemisphere compared to surface station measurements covering the same time span. The ACE derived trend is approximately 0.2% per year higher than measured at surface stations during the same observation period.

Rinsland, Curtis P.↗

The Kinematic and Microphysical Control of Storm Integrated Lightning Flash Extent

The objective of this preliminary study is to investigate the kinematic and microphysical control of lightning properties, particularly those that may govern the production of nitrogen oxides (NOx) in thunderstorms, such as flash rate, type and extent. The mixed-phase region is where the noninductive charging (NIC) process is thought to generate most storm electrification during rebounding collisions between ice particles in the presence of supercooled water. As a result, prior radar-based studies have demonstrated that lightning flash rate is well correlated to kinematic and microphysical properties in the mixed-phase region of thunderstorms such as updraft volume, graupel mass, or ice mass flux. There is also some evidence that lightning type is associated with the convective state. Intracloud (IC) lightning tends to dominate during the updraft accumulation of precipitation ice mass while cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning is more numerous during the downdraft-driven descent of radar echo associated with graupel and hail. More study is required to generalize these relationships, especially regarding lightning type, in a wide variety of storm modes and meteorological conditions. Less is known about the co-evolving relationship between storm kinematics, microphysics, morphology and three-dimensional flash extent, despite its importance for lightning NOx production. To address this conceptual gap, the NASA MSFC Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM) is applied to North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA) and Vaisala National Lightning Detection NetworkTM (NLDN) observations following ordinary convective cells through their lifecycle. LNOM provides estimates of flash type, channel length distributions, lightning segment altitude distributions (SADs) and lightning NOx production profiles. For this study, LNOM is applied in a Lagrangian sense to well isolated convective cells on 3 April 2007 (single cell and multi-cell hailstorm, non-severe multicell) and 6 July 2007 (non-severe multi-cell) over Northern Alabama. The LNOM lightning characteristics are compared to the evolution of updraft and precipitation properties inferred from dual-Doppler and polarimetric radar analyses applied to observations from a nearby Doppler radar network, including the UA Huntsville Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR, C-band, polarimetric). The LNOM estimated SAD and lightning NOx production profiles are placed in the context of radar derived profiles of vertical motion, precipitation types and amounts. Finally, these analyses are used to determine if storm integrated flash channel extent is as well correlated to volumetric updraft and precipitation ice characteristics in the mixed phase region as flash rate for these individual convective cells.

Carey, Lawrence↗