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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1995

Some Developments of the Equilibrium Particle Simulation Method for the Direct Simulation of Compressible Flows

The direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method is the established technique for the simulation of rarefied gas flows. In some flows of engineering interest, such as occur for aero-braking spacecraft in the upper atmosphere, DSMC can become prohibitively expensive in CPU time because some regions of the flow, particularly on the windward side of blunt bodies, become collision dominated. As an alternative to using a hybrid DSMC and continuum gas solver (Euler or Navier-Stokes solver) this work is aimed at making the particle simulation method efficient in the high density regions of the flow. A high density, infinite collision rate limit of DSMC, the Equilibrium Particle Simulation method (EPSM) was proposed some 15 years ago. EPSM is developed here for the flow of a gas consisting of many different species of molecules and is shown to be computationally efficient (compared to DSMC) for high collision rate flows. It thus offers great potential as part of a hybrid DSMC/EPSM code which could handle flows in the transition regime between rarefied gas flows and fully continuum flows. As a first step towards this goal a pure EPSM code is described. The next step of combining DSMC and EPSM is not attempted here but should be straightforward. EPSM and DSMC are applied to Taylor-Couette flow with Kn = 0.02 and 0.0133 and S(omega) = 3). Toroidal vortices develop for both methods but some differences are found, as might be expected for the given flow conditions. EPSM appears to be less sensitive to the sequence of random numbers used in the simulation than is DSMC and may also be more dissipative. The question of the origin and the magnitude of the dissipation in EPSM is addressed. It is suggested that this analysis is also relevant to DSMC when the usual accuracy requirements on the cell size and decoupling time step are relaxed in the interests of computational efficiency.

Macrossan, M. N.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Probabilistic Analysis of a Composite Crew Module

An approach for conducting reliability-based analysis (RBA) of a Composite Crew Module (CCM) is presented. The goal is to identify and quantify the benefits of probabilistic design methods for the CCM and future space vehicles. The coarse finite element model from a previous NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) project is used as the baseline deterministic analysis model to evaluate the performance of the CCM using a strength-based failure index. The first step in the probabilistic analysis process is the determination of the uncertainty distributions for key parameters in the model. Analytical data from water landing simulations are used to develop an uncertainty distribution, but such data were unavailable for other load cases. The uncertainty distributions for the other load scale factors and the strength allowables are generated based on assumed coefficients of variation. Probability of first-ply failure is estimated using three methods: the first order reliability method (FORM), Monte Carlo simulation, and conditional sampling. Results for the three methods were consistent. The reliability is shown to be driven by first ply failure in one region of the CCM at the high altitude abort load set. The final predicted probability of failure is on the order of 10-11 due to the conservative nature of the factors of safety on the deterministic loads.

FROM↗
NASA NTRS1994

Independent pixel and Monte Carlo estimates of stratocumulus albedo

Monte Carlo radiative transfer methods are employed here to estimate the plane-parallel albedo bias for marine stratocumulus clouds. This is the bias in estimates of the mesoscale-average albedo, which arises from the assumption that cloud liquid water is uniformly distributed. The authors compare such estimates with those based on a more realistic distribution generated from a fractal model of marine stratocumulus clouds belonging to the class of 'bounded cascade' models. In this model the cloud top and base are fixed, so that all variations in cloud shape are ignored. The model generates random variations in liquid water along a single horizontal direction, forming fractal cloud streets while conserving the total liquid water in the cloud field. The model reproduces the mean, variance, and skewness of the vertically integrated cloud liquid water, as well as its observed wavenumber spectrum, which is approximately a power law. The Monte Carlo method keeps track of the three-dimensional paths solar photons take through the cloud field, using a vectorized implementation of a direct technique. The simplifications in the cloud field studied here allow the computations to be accelerated. The Monte Carlo results are compared to those of the independent pixel approximation, which neglects net horizontal photon transport. Differences between the Monte Carlo and independent pixel estimates of the mesoscale-average albedo are on the order of 1% for conservative scattering, while the plane-parallel bias itself is an order of magnitude larger. As cloud absorption increases, the independent pixel approximation agrees even more closely with the Monte Carlo estimates. This result holds for a wide range of sun angles and aspect ratios. Thus, horizontal photon transport can be safely neglected in estimates of the area-average flux for such cloud models. This result relies on the rapid falloff of the wavenumber spectrum of stratocumulus, which ensures that the smaller-scale variability, where the radiative transfer is more three-dimensional, contributes less to the plane-parallel albedo bias than the larger scales, which are more variable. The lack of significant three-dimensional effects also relies on the assumption of a relatively simple geometry. Even with these assumptions, the independent pixel approximation is accurate only for fluxes averaged over large horizontal areas, many photon mean free paths in diameter, and not for local radiance values, which depend strongly on the interaction between neighboring cloud elements.

Cahalan, Robert F.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Application of the Probabilistic Dynamic Synthesis Method to Realistic Structures

The Probabilistic Dynamic Synthesis method is a technique for obtaining the statistics of a desired response engineering quantity for a structure with non-deterministic parameters. The method uses measured data from modal testing of the structure as the input random variables, rather than more "primitive" quantities like geometry or material variation. This modal information is much more comprehensive and easily measured than the "primitive" information. The probabilistic analysis is carried out using either response surface reliability methods or Monte Carlo simulation. In previous work, the feasibility of the PDS method applied to a simple seven degree-of-freedom spring-mass system was verified. In this paper, extensive issues involved with applying the method to a realistic three-substructure system are examined, and free and forced response analyses are performed. The results from using the method are promising, especially when the lack of alternatives for obtaining quantitative output for probabilistic structures is considered.

Brown, Andrew M.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Characterizing Epistemic Uncertainty for Launch Vehicle Designs

NASA Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) has the task of estimating the aleatory (randomness) and epistemic (lack of knowledge) uncertainty of launch vehicle loss of mission and crew risk and communicating the results. Launch vehicles are complex engineered systems designed with sophisticated subsystems that are built to work together to accomplish mission success. Some of these systems or subsystems are in the form of heritage equipment, while some have never been previously launched. For these cases, characterizing the epistemic uncertainty is of foremost importance, and it is anticipated that the epistemic uncertainty of a modified launch vehicle design versus a design of well understood heritage equipment would be greater. For reasons that will be discussed, standard uncertainty propagation methods using Monte Carlo simulation produce counter intuitive results and significantly underestimate epistemic uncertainty for launch vehicle models. Furthermore, standard PRA methods such as Uncertainty-Importance analyses used to identify components that are significant contributors to uncertainty are rendered obsolete since sensitivity to uncertainty changes are not reflected in propagation of uncertainty using Monte Carlo methods.This paper provides a basis of the uncertainty underestimation for complex systems and especially, due to nuances of launch vehicle logic, for launch vehicles. It then suggests several alternative methods for estimating uncertainty and provides examples of estimation results. Lastly, the paper shows how to implement an Uncertainty-Importance analysis using one alternative approach, describes the results, and suggests ways to reduce epistemic uncertainty by focusing on additional data or testing of selected components.

Novack, Steven D.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Application of the Probabilistic Dynamic Synthesis Method to the Analysis of a Realistic Structure

The Probabilistic Dynamic Synthesis method is a new technique for obtaining the statistics of a desired response engineering quantity for a structure with non-deterministic parameters. The method uses measured data from modal testing of the structure as the input random variables, rather than more "primitive" quantities like geometry or material variation. This modal information is much more comprehensive and easily measured than the "primitive" information. The probabilistic analysis is carried out using either response surface reliability methods or Monte Carlo simulation. A previous work verified the feasibility of the PDS method on a simple seven degree-of-freedom spring-mass system. In this paper, extensive issues involved with applying the method to a realistic three-substructure system are examined, and free and forced response analyses are performed. The results from using the method are promising, especially when the lack of alternatives for obtaining quantitative output for probabilistic structures is considered.

Brown, Andrew M.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Lagged average forecasting, some operational considerations

The Lagged Average Forecast (LAF) method differs from the Monte Carlo Forecast (MCF) method in the definition of the ensemble of initial states which are used to generate the ensemble of forecasts. The LAF initial states are the current analysis and the forecasts made from previous analyses verifying the current time. Thus the LAF ensemble is composed of forecasts which are made by a regular operational system of numerical weather prediction and the LAF method is therefore operationally attractive. The application of the authors' previous ideas and results to an operational model requires the resolution of what might be called the degrees of freedom problem, i.e., how to obtain a homogeneous sample large enough to calculate stable statistics. It is suggested that this problem may be solved by carefully modeling the required statistics in terms of a small set of parameters and then estimating only these few parameters from the data. It is noted that there may be considerable information in each initial ensemble relating to the predictability of each particular case, and that this information may be incorporated in the model of the statistics.

Hoffman, R. N.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Space proton transport in one dimension

An approximate evaluation procedure is derived for a second-order theory of coupled nucleon transport in one dimension. An analytical solution with a simplified interaction model is used to determine quadrature parameters to minimize truncation error. Effects of the improved method on transport solutions with the BRYNTRN data base are evaluated. Comparisons with Monte Carlo benchmarks are given. Using different shield materials, the computational procedure is used to study the physics of space protons. A transition effect occurs in tissue near the shield interface and is most important in shields of high atomic number.

NASA Discipline Number 45-10↗
NASA NTRS2011

Kinetic Monte Carlo Simulation of Oxygen and Cation Diffusion in Yttria-Stabilized Zirconia

Yttria-stabilized zirconia (YSZ) is of interest to the aerospace community, notably for its application as a thermal barrier coating for turbine engine components. In such an application, diffusion of both oxygen ions and cations is of concern. Oxygen diffusion can lead to deterioration of a coated part, and often necessitates an environmental barrier coating. Cation diffusion in YSZ is much slower than oxygen diffusion. However, such diffusion is a mechanism by which creep takes place, potentially affecting the mechanical integrity and phase stability of the coating. In other applications, the high oxygen diffusivity of YSZ is useful, and makes the material of interest for use as a solid-state electrolyte in fuel cells. The kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) method offers a number of advantages compared with the more widely known molecular dynamics simulation method. In particular, kMC is much more efficient for the study of processes, such as diffusion, that involve infrequent events. We describe the results of kinetic Monte Carlo computer simulations of oxygen and cation diffusion in YSZ. Using diffusive energy barriers from ab initio calculations and from the literature, we present results on the temperature dependence of oxygen and cation diffusivity, and on the dependence of the diffusivities on yttria concentration and oxygen sublattice vacancy concentration. We also present results of the effect on diffusivity of oxygen vacancies in the vicinity of the barrier cations that determine the oxygen diffusion energy barriers.

Good, Brian↗
NASA NTRS2013

Kinetic Monte Carlo Simulation of Cation Diffusion in Low-K Ceramics

Low thermal conductivity (low-K) ceramic materials are of interest to the aerospace community for use as the thermal barrier component of coating systems for turbine engine components. In particular, zirconia-based materials exhibit both low thermal conductivity and structural stability at high temperature, making them suitable for such applications. Because creep is one of the potential failure modes, and because diffusion is a mechanism by which creep takes place, we have performed computer simulations of cation diffusion in a variety of zirconia-based low-K materials. The kinetic Monte Carlo simulation method is an alternative to the more widely known molecular dynamics (MD) method. It is designed to study "infrequent-event" processes, such as diffusion, for which MD simulation can be highly inefficient. We describe the results of kinetic Monte Carlo computer simulations of cation diffusion in several zirconia-based materials, specifically, zirconia doped with Y, Gd, Nb and Yb. Diffusion paths are identified, and migration energy barriers are obtained from density functional calculations and from the literature. We present results on the temperature dependence of the diffusivity, and on the effects of the presence of oxygen vacancies in cation diffusion barrier complexes as well.

Good, Brian↗
NASA NTRS1989

Assessment of impingement effects in the isentropic core of a small satellite control thruster plume

Two computational techniques commonly employed in the calculation of rocket and thruster expansion plumes are assessed. These are the method of characteristics (MOC), which is derived from the continuum Euler equations, and the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method, which adopts a discrete particle approach. These techniques vary both in the computational expense and in the accuracy and detail of the solutions that they provide, depending upon the regime of application. The assessment is made with reference to the plume expanding from a small monopropellant hydrazine thruster and concentrates on the isentropic core of the jet for the flow regime lying between the continuum and free molecular limits. It is found that the more numerically intensive DSMC method offers the better correspondence to the available experimental data. In addition, large differences in typical impingement effects such as drag force and heat transfer are found at the free molecular limit of the plume expansion for the two predictive techniques. It is concluded that accurate estimation of impingement potential may only be achieved through application of the discrete particle method.

Boyd, I. D.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Application of advanced reliability methods to local strain fatigue analysis

When design factors are considered as random variables and the failure condition cannot be expressed by a closed form algebraic inequality, computations of risk (or probability of failure) might become extremely difficult or very inefficient. This study suggests using a simple, and easily constructed, second degree polynomial to approximate the complicated limit state in the neighborhood of the design point; a computer analysis relates the design variables at selected points. Then a fast probability integration technique (i.e., the Rackwitz-Fiessler algorithm) can be used to estimate risk. The capability of the proposed method is demonstrated in an example of a low cycle fatigue problem for which a computer analysis is required to perform local strain analysis to relate the design variables. A comparison of the performance of this method is made with a far more costly Monte Carlo solution. Agreement of the proposed method with Monte Carlo is considered to be good.

Wu, T. T.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Advanced reliability method for fatigue analysis

When design factors are considered as random variables and the failure condition cannot be expressed by a closed form algebraic inequality, computations of risk (or probability of failure) may become extremely difficult or very inefficient. This study suggests using a simple and easily constructed second degree polynomial to approximate the complicated limit state in the neighborhood of the design point; a computer analysis relates the design variables at selected points. Then a fast probability integration technique (i.e., the Rackwitz-Fiessler algorithm) can be used to estimate risk. The capability of the proposed method is demonstrated in an example of a low cycle fatigue problem for which a computer analysis is required to perform local strain analysis to relate the design variables. A comparison of the performance of this method is made with a far more costly Monte Carlo solution. Agreement of the proposed method with Monte Carlo is considered to be good.

Wu, Y.-T.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Computation of axisymmetric and ionized hypersonic flows using particle and continuum methods

Comparisons between particle and continuum simulations of hypersonic near-continuum flows are presented. The particle approach employs the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method, and the continuum approach solves the appropriate equations of fluid flow. Both simulations have thermochemistry models for air implemented including ionization. A new axisymmetric DSMC code that is efficiently vectorized is developed for this study. In this DSMC code, particular attention is paid to matching the relaxation rates employed in the continuum approach. This investigation represents a continuum of a previous study that considered thermochemical relaxation in one-dimensional shock waves of nitrogen. Comparison of the particle and continuum methods is first made for an axisymmetric blunt-body flow of air at 7 km/s. Very good agreement is obtained for the two solutions. The two techniques also compare well for a one-dimensional shock wave in air at 10 km/s. In both applications, the results are found to be sensitive to various aspects of the chemistry model employed.

Boyd, Iain D.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Higher-order viscous shock-layer solutions for high altitude flows

A higher-order viscous shock-layer (HVSL) method has been developed and is used to obtain physically consistent results under varying degrees of low-density conditions for perfect-gas and nonequilibrium flows past long slender bodies. This method is implemented with higher-order body and shock slip conditions. Detailed comparisons with the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method and Navier-Stokes (NS) calculations establish HVSL as a computationally efficient code for the low-density calculations. Further, it is shown that the deficiencies in the standard viscous shock-layer (VSL) method when predicting low-density flows lie in the governing equations and not with the slip boundary conditions as considered by earlier researchers.

Gupta, Roop N.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Cu-Au Alloys Using Monte Carlo Simulations and the BFS Method for Alloys

Semi empirical methods have shown considerable promise in aiding in the calculation of many properties of materials. Materials used in engineering applications have defects that occur for various reasons including processing. In this work we present the first application of the BFS method for alloys to describe some aspects of microstructure due to processing for the Cu-Au system (Cu-Au, CuAu3, and Cu3Au). We use finite temperature Monte Carlo calculations, in order to show the influence of 'heat treatment' in the low-temperature phase of the alloy. Although relatively simple, it has enough features that could be used as a first test of the reliability of the technique. The main questions to be answered in this work relate to the existence of low temperature ordered structures for specific concentrations, for example, the ability to distinguish between rather similar phases for equiatomic alloys (CuAu I and CuAu II, the latter characterized by an antiphase boundary separating two identical phases).

Bozzolo, Guillermo↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using Importance Sampling Monte Carlo to Analyze Aircraft Takeoff and Landing

Aircraft have achieved high levels of reliability, so the probability of undesirable dynamics is very low. The low probability of a bad takeoff or landing challenges nondeterministic methods to quantify the uncertainty of these improbable events. In the present work, a Monte Carlo method is defined to more effectively quantify these unlikely events that is suitable for uncertainty analysis of a mature design with many uncertainty parameters. The proposed Monte Carlo method has been applied to the takeoff and landing of the X-59 Quiet SuperSonic Technology (QueSST). Takeoff and landing simulation profiles were defined using a combination of industry standards and piloted simulation experience. The proposed method is shown to be able to quantify events with significantly fewer samples than would be required with conventional Monte Carlo. These results improve understanding of the sensitivity of the takeoff and landing dynamics to inform further studies and test planning.

Jeffrey Ouellette↗