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DOE OSTI2024

Measurement of groomed event shape observables in deep-inelastic electron-proton scattering at HERA

The H1 Collaboration at HERA reports the first measurement of groomed event shape observables in deep inelastic electron-proton scattering (DIS) at $\sqrt{s} =319$ GeV, using data recorded between the years 2003 and 2007 with an integrated luminosity of 351 pb -1 . Event shapes provide incisive probes of perturbative and non-perturbative QCD. Grooming techniques have been used for jet measurements in hadronic collisions; this paper presents the first application of grooming to DIS data. The analysis is carried out in the Breit frame, utilizing the novel Centauro jet clustering algorithm that is designed for DIS event topologies. Events are required to have squared momentum-transfer $Q^2 > 150$ GeV 2 and inelasticity $0.2< y < 0.7$. We report measurements of the production cross section of groomed event 1-jettiness and groomed invariant mass for several choices of grooming parameter. Monte Carlo model calculations and analytic calculations based on Soft Collinear Effective Theory are compared to the measurements.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Final Technical Report for project entitled Highly Active, Durable, and Ultra-Low PGM NSTF Thin Film ORR Catalysts and Support

In this project, the objective was to develop new oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) electrocatalysts for proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs) which could exceed all of the Department of Energy (DOE) 2020 targets listed in DE-FOA-0001224, Subtopic 1b, Table I. The expected outcome was development of one or more electrocatalysts which are substantially improved over the current state-of-the-art in terms of overall activity, durability, and cost, and are suitable for automotive traction and stationary fuel cell applications. This report summarizes this project’s progress towards meeting the stated objectives and includes a summary of key findings and conclusions. The development activities towards new highly active and durable thin film electrocatalysts has led to the discovery of several electrocatalysts which approached or exceeded several DOE 2020 targets for activity, durability, and performance in proton exchange membrane fuel cell (membrane electrode assemblies (MEAs). In this project, electrocatalyst development focused on systematic physical and electrochemical characterization of electrocatalyst activity, durability, and performance in MEAs as a function of electrocatalyst fabrication, compositional and structural variables. The project approach was to develop relationships between the catalyst functional responses (activity, durability and performance) with catalyst physical properties and catalyst fabrication methods. Additionally, the thin film catalysts were integrated onto the unique and durable 3M Nanostructured Thin Film (NSTF) support, consisting of arrays of self-assembled organic crystalline whiskers. The catalysts were evaluated against the project targets via extensive electrochemical characterization in MEA format at 3M, advanced structural and compositional microscopy at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), and atomic structure analysis via XAFS at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL). The extensive electrochemical and physical characterization resulted in development of several trends which correlate the catalysts’ electrochemical properties to their physical properties, including composition, structure, and method of fabrication. The development was guided by density functional theory (DFT) modeling at Purdue University and kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) modeling at Johns Hopkins University. The catalyst simulations provided key insights into the observed experimental activity and durability trends, and additionally were utilized to assess new electrocatalyst concepts prior to or coincident with physical catalyst development. This development has led to several electrocatalyst candidates with activity and durability which approach or exceed DOE targets. One class of catalysts, based on nm-scale thin layers of Pt on Ir, met or exceeded 6 of the 6 DOE targets the project addressed.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2023

KamNet: An integrated spatiotemporal deep neural network for rare event searches in KamLAND-Zen

Rare event searches allow us to search for new physics at energy scales inaccessible with other means by leveraging specialized large-mass detectors. Machine learning provides a new tool to maximize the information provided by these detectors. The information is sparse, which forces these algorithms to start from the lowest level data and exploit all symmetries in the detector to produce results. In this work we present KamNet, which harnesses breakthroughs in geometric deep learning and spatiotemporal data analysis to maximize the physics reach of KamLAND-Zen, a kiloton scale spherical liquid scintillator detector searching for 0⁢νβ⁢β. Using a simplified background model for KamLAND, we show that KamNet outperforms a conventional convolutional neural network (CNN) on benchmarking Monte Carlo simulations with an increasing level of robustness. Using simulated data, we then demonstrate KamNet's ability to increase KamLAND-Zen's sensitivity to 0ν⁢ββ and 2⁢ν⁢β⁢β decay to excited states. A key component of this work is the addition of an attention mechanism to elucidate the underlying physics KamNet is using for the background rejection.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Search for leptonic charge asymmetry in $t\overline{t}W$ production in final states with three leptons at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV

A search for the leptonic charge asymmetry (${A}_{c}^{\ell}$) of top-quark-antiquark pair production in association with a $W$ boson ($t\overline{t}W$) is presented. The search is performed using final states with exactly three charged light leptons (electrons or muons) and is based on $\sqrt{s}$= 13 TeV proton-proton collision data collected with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider at CERN during the years 2015–2018, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 139 fb –1 . A profile-likelihood fit to the event yields in multiple regions corresponding to positive and negative differences between the pseudorapidities of the charged leptons from top-quark and top-antiquark decays is used to extract the charge asymmetry. At reconstruction level, the asymmetry is found to be –0.12 ± 0.14 (stat.) ± 0.05 (syst.). An unfolding procedure is applied to convert the result at reconstruction level into a charge-asymmetry value in a fiducial volume at particle level with the result of –0.11 ± 0.17 (stat.) ± 0.05 (syst.). The Standard Model expectations for these two observables are calculated using Monte Carlo simulations with next-to-leading-order plus parton shower precision in quantum chromodynamics and including next-to-leading-order electroweak corrections. They are ${–0.084}_{–0.003}^{+0.005}$ (scale) ± 0.006 (MC stat.) and ${–0.063}_{–0.004}^{+0.007}$ (scale) ± 0.004 (MC stat.) respectively, and in agreement with the measurements.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Measurements of inclusive and differential cross-sections of $t\overline{t}\gamma$ production in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Inclusive and differential cross-sections are measured at particle level for the associated production of a top quark pair and a photon ($t\overline{t}\gamma$). The analysis is performed using an integrated luminosity of 140 fb -1 of proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV collected by the ATLAS detector. The measurements are performed in the single-lepton and dilepton top quark pair decay channels focusing on ($t\overline{t}\gamma$) topologies where the photon is radiated from an initial-state parton or one of the top quarks. The absolute and normalised differential cross-sections are measured for several variables characterising the photon, lepton and jet kinematics as well as the angular separation between those objects. The observables are found to be in good agreement with the Monte Carlo predictions. The photon transverse momentum differential distribution is used to set limits on effective field theory parameters related to the electroweak dipole moments of the top quark. The combined limits using the photon and the Z boson transverse momentum measured in $t\overline{t}$ production in associations with a Z boson are also set.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Collective mode Brownian dynamics: A method for fast relaxation of statistical ensembles

Sampling equilibrium configurations of correlated systems of particles with long relaxation times (e.g., polymeric solutions) using conventional molecular dynamics and Monte Carlo methods can be challenging. This is especially true for systems with complicated, extended bond network topologies and other interactions that make the use and design of specialized relaxation protocols infeasible. We introduce a method based on Brownian dynamics simulations that can reduce the computational time it takes to reach equilibrium and draw decorrelated samples. Importantly, the method is completely agnostic to the particle configuration and the specifics of interparticle forces. In particular, we develop a mobility matrix that excites non-local, collective motion of N particles and can be computed efficiently in $\mathcal{O}(N)$ time. Particle motion in this scheme is computed by integrating the overdamped Langevin equation with an Euler–Maruyama scheme, in which Brownian displacements are drawn efficiently using a low-rank representation of the mobility matrix in position and wave space. We demonstrate the efficacy of the method with various examples from the realm of soft condensed matter and release a massively parallel implementation of the code as a plugin for the open-source package HOOMD-blue [J. A. Anderson et al., J. Comput. Phys. 227, 5342 (2008) and J. Glaser et al., Comput. Phys. Commun. 192, 97 (2015)] which runs on graphics processing units

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Gearbox bearing crack growth prognostics and uncertainty quantification with physics-informed machine learning

This paper introduces the extreme theory of functional connections (X-TFC), a physics-informed machine learning algorithm, and tailors it to estimate the remaining useful life (RUL) of wind turbine gearbox bearings experiencing fatigue crack growth. Unlike purely data-driven methods, X-TFC embeds a physics model, based on Head's theory in this work, into its training objective. The core of X-TFC is a random-projection single-layer neural network trained via an extreme learning machine, which requires only limited damage progression data and solves for output weights with a least-squares optimization algorithm. A composite loss function balances the network's fit to observed degradation data against the residuals of the governing crack growth differential equation, ensuring the learned damage trajectory remains physically plausible. When applied to a vibration-based health-index (HI) dataset measured during the growth of a crack on the inner ring of a high-speed bearing in a wind turbine gearbox (Bechhoefer and Dubé, 2020), X-TFC achieves near-zero prediction bias. Even when trained on only the first 10 %–20 % of the damage progression data, with sufficient physics weighting its predictions remain monotonic and smooth, delivering high prognosability and trendability. To quantify the epistemic uncertainty, we employ a Monte Carlo ensemble of independently initialized X-TFC models trained on noise-perturbed data, which yields confidence intervals around each RUL estimate and captures both model-parameter and epistemic uncertainty. In addition to a vibration-based HI, we demonstrate that the proposed framework can be directly applied to a supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data-based HI (Eftekhari Milani et al., 2026) measured during similar wind turbine gearbox bearing crack faults, preserving its accuracy and interpretability. This extension shows the versatility of our approach, which is applicable to bearings of multiple gearbox manufacturers, models, and ratings using only SCADA data. By integrating domain knowledge with machine learning, X-TFC offers a rapid, reliable tool for crack prognostics. Its adaptability to other bearing failure modes, such as pitch bearing ring cracks, positions X-TFC as a powerful enabler of data-driven, physics-informed asset management in the wind energy sector and beyond.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Status of PyGriffin Development for Integration into the NEAMS Workbench

The integration of Griffin into Workbench, by way of the PyGriffin code package, was initiated by the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program in FY-2022. PyGriffin was developed as a Python wrapper to Griffin to streamline the complex workflow involving mesh, cross section, and Griffin input generation, code execution, and results postprocessing, by improving user experience with high fidelity neutronics analysis through the Workbench GUI interface. PyGriffin can be used as a standalone application or through the PyARC code suite. FY-2023 saw the continued development of PyGriffin to expand its capabilities including advanced post-processing of simulation results and initial development of the Monte Carlo (MC) cross section generation workflow with the Shift MC code. PyGriffin was also approved for open-source software status in FY-2023, initiating plans to move the code repository into an open location. In addition to PyGriffin development, there were many improvements and developments made in PyARC leading to several software releases (latest version is v2.3.0), but the focus of this report is PyGriffin.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Development and validation of fully open-source R2S shutdown dose rate capabilities in OpenMC *

We present the first fully open-source capabilities for shutdown dose rate (SDR) calculations of fusion energy facilities based on the Rigorous 2-Step (R2S) methodology. These capabilities have been implemented in the OpenMC Monte Carlo particle transport code, building on its existing capabilities while also leveraging new features that have been added to the code to support SDR calculations, such as decay photon source generation. Each of the individual physics components in the R2S workflow—neutron transport, activation, decay photon source generation, and photon transport—have been verified through code-to-code comparisons with MCNP6.2 and FISPACT-II 4.0. These comparisons generally demonstrate excellent agreement between codes for each of the physics components. The full cell-based R2S workflow was validated by performing a simulation of the first experimental campaign from the Frascati Neutron Generator (FNG) ITER dose rate benchmark problem from the Shielding INtegral Benchmark Archive and Database (SINBAD). For short cooling times, the dose calculated by OpenMC agrees with the experimental measurements within the stated experimental uncertainties. For longer cooling times, an overprediction of the shutdown dose was observed relative to experiment, which is consistent with previous studies in the literature. Altogether, these features constitute a combination of capabilities in a single, open-source codebase to provide the fusion community with a readily-accessible option for SDR calculations and a platform for rapidly analyzing the performance of fusion technology.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Measurements and interpretations of W ± Z production cross-sections in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV with the ATLAS detector

Measurements of integrated and differential cross-sections for W ± Z production in proton-proton collisions are presented. The data collected by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider from 2015 to 2018 at a centre-of-mass energy of $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV are used, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 140 fb −1 . The W ± Z candidate events are reconstructed using leptonic decay modes of the gauge bosons into electrons or muons. The integrated cross-section per lepton flavour for the production of W ± Z is measured in the detector fiducial region with a relative precision of 4%. The measured value is compared with the Standard Model prediction at a precision of up to next-to-next-to-leading-order in QCD and next-to-leading-order in electroweak. Cross-sections for W + Z and W − Z production and their ratio are presented. The W ± Z production is also measured differentially as functions of various kinematic variables, including new observables sensitive to CP-violation effects. All measurements are compared with state-of-the-art Standard Model predictions from fixed-order calculations or Monte Carlo generators based on next-to-leading-order matrix elements interfaced with parton showers. An effective field theory interpretation of the measurements is performed, considering both CP-conserving and CP-violating dimension-6 operators modifying the W ± Z production. In the absence of observed deviations from the Standard Model, limits on CP-conserving Wilson coefficients are extracted using the transverse mass of the W ± Z system. For CP-violating coefficients a machine learning approach is used to construct an observable with enhanced sensitivity to CP-violation effects.

hadron-hadron scattering↗

DOE OSTI2023

Multi-fidelity Uncertainty Quantification for Homogenization Problems in Structure-Property Relationships from Crystal Plasticity Finite Elements

Crystal plasticity finite element method (CPFEM) has been an integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) workhorse to study materials behaviors and structure-property relationships for the last few decades. These relations are mappings from the microstructure space to the materials properties space. Due to the stochastic and random nature of microstructures, there is always some uncertainty associated with materials properties, for example, in homogenized stress-strain curves. For critical applications with strong reliability needs, it is often desirable to quantify the microstructure-induced uncertainty in the context of structure-property relationships. However, this uncertainty quantification (UQ) problem often incurs a large computational cost because many statistically equivalent representative volume elements (SERVEs) are needed. In this article, we apply a multi-level Monte Carlo (MLMC) method to CPFEM to study the uncertainty in stress-strain curves, given an ensemble of SERVEs at multiple mesh resolutions. By using the information at coarse meshes, we show that it is possible to approximate the response at fine meshes with a much reduced computational cost. We focus on problems where the model output is multi-dimensional, which requires us to track multiple quantities of interest (QoIs) at the same time. In conclusion, our numerical results show that MLMC can accelerate UQ tasks around 2.23x, compared to the classical Monte Carlo (MC) method, which is widely known as ensemble average in the CPFEM literature.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Towards Realistic and High Fidelity Models for Nuclear Reactor Power Synthesis Simulation with Self-Powered Neutron Detectors

As presented in this report, a weighting function–based inferencing method is being applied to synthesize the power distribution in next-generation and university research reactors based on simulated self power neutron detector (SPND) responses. The overall goal is to assess the impacts of sensor uncertainty and true power distribution perturbations on the error in the synthesized power distribution. Regarding sensor uncertainty, the NuScale Small Modular Reactor (SMR) and the Westinghouse AP1000 serve as testbeds for analyzing the impact of varying the sensor uncertainty, as well as varying the number of sensors per sensor string in the reactor core. The reactor models are informed by Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) neutron flux tallies. For the NuScale SMR and Westinghouse AP1000, the SPND response functions (i.e., the response of the SPNDs to individual segments of fuel) were determined homogeneously. Regarding an analysis of power distribution perturbation detection, the Texas A&M Testing, Research, Isotopes, General Atomics Reactor (TAMU TRIGA) reactor was used as a demonstration case with one particular arrangement of SPNDs; the response functions for this reactor model were determined heterogeneously, making this a uniquely high-fidelity demonstration of perturbation detection. Finally, SPND models generated in the Geometry and Tracking 4 (Geant4) code have been generated and tested for comparison with traditionally implemented analytical SPND models, with the intent for Geant4 integration with the full methodological framework. SPND current outputs as a function of distance from some fuel assembly segment in the NuScale SMR are compared with the analytically determined currents. Results from the sensor uncertainty simulations for the NuScale SMR and AP1000 indicate that the average error in the inferred power distribution on the fuel assembly segment level is reasonably low, being slightly less than the random uncertainty applied to all respective SPNDs in both cores. For example, if all SPNDs in the core have a random uncertainty of 5%, then the corresponding fuel assembly segment level error (i.e. difference between the true and inferred local power) is ~2–3%. However, the maximum error in the inferred power distribution on the fuel assembly segment level can be considerably high (>15%) when SPND random uncertainties start to exceed ~3%. In general, the average and maximum errors in the inferred power distribution were slightly higher in the AP1000 as opposed to the NuScale SMR for the sensor string configurations considered herein. Another result determined from analysis of the sensor uncertainty simulations was that increasing the number of SPNDs per string does not clearly reduce inferred power distribution error and can in fact make the error large in some cases; however, this assessment may skewed due to imposed iteration limits. Results from the perturbation detection demonstration using the high-fidelity TAMU TRIGA model indicate that, given the arrangement of 17 SPND strings and 4 SPNDs per string considered herein, there is a clear, provable ability to infer a localized Gaussian-type peak perturbation in the 3D power distribution. Such a perturbation was detected with an average fuel assembly segment level error of 0.19%, and the general visualization of the detected perturbation clearly indicates that the magnitude and shape were appropriately resolved. Finally, the electrical current output generated by the Geant4 modeled SPND indicates significant magnitude differences than the analytically modeled SPND, demonstrating the need for accurate SPND models which account for finite sensor geometry effects to inform the power synthesis work described herein.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Exact evaluation of large-charge correlation functions in nonrelativistic conformal field theory

The large-charge master field which generates all n -point correlation functions with an insertion of large charge Q in nonrelativistic conformal field theory is obtained. This field is used to compute Schrödinger-invariant n -point correlation functions of large-charge operators via a direct evaluation of the path integral. Conformal dimensions are found to agree with calculations based on the state-operator correspondence. The master field solution exhibits an emergent harmonic trap whose frequency is a function of the Euclidean time. The large-charge effective action with operator insertions describes a droplet of superfluid matter whose spatial size scales with the time separation of sources. The solution is used to compute Schrödinger symmetry breaking corrections in the large-charge effective field theory (EFT) due to a finite scattering length in the fundamental theory of fermions near unitarity. The scaling of these effects in the large-charge power counting scheme is established, and the size of the effects is quantified using input from quantum Monte Carlo simulations of the near-unitary gas, as well as from the large- N expansion at large charge. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2021

Fossil fuel CO 2 emissions over metropolitan areas from space: A multi-model analysis of OCO-2 data over Lahore, Pakistan

Urban areas, where gathering more than 55% of the global population, alone contributed to more than 70% of anthropogenic fossil fuel carbon dioxide (CO 2ff ) emissions. Accurate quantification of CO 2ff emissions from urban areas is of great importance to the formulation of global warming mitigation policies to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. Satellite-based inversion techniques are unique among “top-down” approaches, potentially allowing us to track CO 2ff emission changes over cities globally. However, its accuracy is still limited by incomplete background information, cloud blockages, aerosol contaminations, and uncertainties in models and emission inventories used as prior. To evaluate the current potential of space-based quantification techniques, we present the first attempt to monitor long-term changes in CO 2ff emissions based on the OCO-2 satellite measurements of column-averaged dry-air mole fractions of CO 2 (X CO2 ) over a fast-growing Asian metropolitan area: Lahore, Pakistan. We first examined the OCO-2 data availability at global scale. About 17% of OCO-2 soundings are marked as high-quality soundings by quality flags over the global 70 most populated cities over the period 2014-2019. Cloud blockage and aerosol contamination are the two main causes of data loss. As an attempt to recover additional soundings, we evaluated the effectiveness of OCO-2 quality flags at the city level by comparing three flux quantification methods (WRF-Chem, X-STILT, and flux cross-sectional integration method), all based on the Open-Data Inventory for Anthropogenic Carbon dioxide (ODIAC) product. The satellite/bottom-up emissions (OCO-2/ODIAC) ratios of the high-quality tracks better converged across the three methods compared to the all-data tracks with reduced uncertainties in emissions. Thus, OCO-2 quality flags are useful filters of low-quality OCO-2 retrievals at local scales, although originally designed for global-scale studies. All three methods consistently suggested that the ratio medians are greater than 1, which implies that the ODIAC slightly underestimated the CO2ff emissions over Lahore. Additionally, our estimation of the a posteriori CO2ff emission trend was about 734 kt C/year (i.e., an annual 6.7% increase). 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the Mann-Kendall upward trend test showed that less than 10% prior uncertainty for 8 tracks (or less than 20% prior uncertainty for 25 tracks) is required to achieve a greater-than-50% trend significant possibility at a 95% confidence level. It implies that the trend is driven by the prior and not due to the assimilation of OCO-2 retrievals. The key to improving the role of satellite data in CO 2 emission trend detection lies in collecting more frequent high-quality tracks near metropolitan areas to achieve significant constraints from X CO2 retrievals.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Once-Through Steam Generator Model Analysis Using Python and Advanced Optimization Tools (Summer Internship Report)

This study focuses on the parametric analysis of design parameters for a once-through steam generator (OTSG) model, using python and advanced optimization tools to facilitate applications such as the flowing autoclave steam generator (FASG) test cases. Building on previous research involving another OTSG with a different design, this project aims to enhance our understanding of how steam generators (SGs) behave and how their outputs are influenced by changes in design. The reason for this design change is to allow for more precise modeling and optimization of SG performance, to provide a comparative analysis between the two designs, and to set up the model for integration with the FASG test case. The OTSG python-model is a mathematical representation (including fluid flow and heat transfer equations/models/correlations) of a steam-generating unit in a pressurized water reactor-type small modular reactor system. Design studies involve changing the model’s input design parameters to observe the resulting effects on the output of the system. By using advanced optimization tools, such as the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) developed at Idaho National Laboratory, detailed design parametric studies and model optimization were performed. Six input parameters—pressure, temperature, and mass flow rate for the inlet of the primary-side (hot fluid) and secondary-side (cold fluid), respectively, of the SG—were randomly perturbed via RAVEN’s Monte Carlo Sampler module, using uniform distributions (i.e., ±1%, ±5% and ±10% relative changes) for 600 samples. The analysis provides valuable insights into SG optimization and can be used for sensor placement optimization to effectively monitor and obtain experimental data in other tests.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Inclusive and multiplicity dependent production of electrons from heavy-flavour hadron decays in pp and p-Pb collisions

Measurements of the production of electrons from heavy-flavour hadron decays in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV at midrapidity with the ALICE detector are presented down to a transverse momentum (p T ) of 0.2 GeV/c and up to p T = 35 GeV/c, which is the largest momentum range probed for inclusive electron measurements in ALICE. In p-Pb collisions, the production cross section and the nuclear modification factor of electrons from heavy-flavour hadron decays are measured in the p T range 0.5 < p T < 26 GeV/c at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$= 8.16 TeV. The nuclear modification factor is found to be consistent with unity within the statistical and systematic uncertainties. In both collision systems, first measurements of the yields of electrons from heavy-flavour hadron decays in different multiplicity intervals normalised to the multiplicity-integrated yield (self-normalised yield) at midrapidity are reported as a function of the self-normalised charged-particle multiplicity estimated at midrapidity. The self-normalised yields in pp and p-Pb collisions grow faster than linear with the self-normalised multiplicity. A strong p T dependence is observed in pp collisions, where the yield of high-p T electrons increases faster as a function of multiplicity than the one of low-p T electrons. The measurement in p-Pb collisions shows no p T dependence within uncertainties. The self-normalised yields in pp and p-Pb collisions are compared with measurements of other heavy-flavour, light-flavour, and strange particles, and with Monte Carlo simulations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

A novel conditional generative model for efficient ensemble forecasts of state variables in large-scale geological carbon storage

Integrating monitoring data to efficiently update reservoir pressure and CO 2 plume distribution forecasts presents a significant challenge in geological carbon storage (GCS) applications. Inverse modeling techniques are commonly used to fuse observational data and refine reservoir model parameters, thereby improving state variable forecasts. However, these techniques often rely on linear or Gaussian assumptions, which can limit their effectiveness in accurately predicting state variables. Moreover, simulating large-scale three-dimensional (3D) GCS problems is computationally expensive, making iterative runs in inverse problems prohibitive. To address these challenges, we propose a conditional generative model utilizing the score-based diffusion method for real-time 3D pressure and saturation field distribution predictions. Our approach involves solving the score function with a mini-batch-based Monte Carlo estimator to generate labeled data. This data is subsequently employed to train a fully connected neural network, enabling it to learn the conditional sample generator within a supervised learning framework. This method enables the rapid generation of a large ensemble of predictions, facilitating comprehensive uncertainty quantification of state variables. Here we applied our method to forecast the dynamic 3D distributions of pressure and saturation fields over a 30-year injection period. The statistical assessment with low root mean square error (RMSE) values demonstrates that our method can accurately predict the spatiotemporal distributions of both pressure and saturation fields. Moreover, the developed conditional generative model shows high computational efficiency by generating 100 ensemble forecasts of 3D state variables in less than 10 min. The consistency between ensemble averages and ground truth values further illustrates the model’s capability to capture state variable dynamics during the CO 2 plume injection process. Notably, the ground truth values fall within the ensemble forecasts, indicating that our uncertainty quantification effectively captures variability and potential noise in the observations. Thus, the developed conditional generative model proves to be a more efficient, accurate, and practical tool for GCS applications, facilitating timely risk analysis and informed decision-making.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty Visualization of Critical Points of 2D Scalar Fields for Parametric and Nonparametric Probabilistic Models

This paper presents a novel end-to-end framework for closed-form computation and visualization of critical point uncertainty in 2D uncertain scalar fields. Critical points are fundamental topological descriptors used in the visualization and analysis of scalar fields. The uncertainty inherent in data (e.g., observational and experimental data, approximations in simulations, and compression), however, creates uncertainty regarding critical point positions. Uncertainty in critical point positions, therefore, cannot be ignored, given their impact on downstream data analysis tasks. Here, in this work, we study uncertainty in critical points as a function of uncertainty in data modeled with probability distributions. Although Monte Carlo (MC) sampling techniques have been used in prior studies to quantify critical point uncertainty, they are often expensive and are infrequently used in production-quality visualization software. We, therefore, propose a new end-to-end framework to address these challenges that comprises a threefold contribution. First, we derive the critical point uncertainty in closed form, which is more accurate and efficient than the conventional MC sampling methods. Specifically, we provide the closed-form and semianalytical (a mix of closed-form and MC methods) solutions for parametric (e.g., uniform, Epanechnikov) and nonparametric models (e.g., histograms) with finite support. Second, we accelerate critical point probability computations using a parallel implementation with the VTK-m library, which is platform portable. Finally, we demonstrate the integration of our implementation with the ParaView software system to demonstrate near-real-time results for real datasets.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗