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Topics covered include: Physics of Hypersonic Flow and TPS Considerations. Destinations, Missions and Requirements. State of the Art Thermal Protection Systems Capabilities. Modern Advances in Ablative TPS. Entry Systems Concepts. Flexible TPS for Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerators. Conformal TPS for Rigid Aeroshell. 3-D Woven TPS for Extreme Entry Environment. Multi-functional Carbon Fabric for Mechanically Deployable.
We use numerical climate simulations, paleoclimate data, and modern observations to study the effect of growing ice melt from Antarctica and Greenland. Meltwater tends to stabilize the ocean column, inducing amplifying feedbacks that increase subsurface ocean warming and ice shelf melting. Cold meltwater and induced dynamical effects cause ocean surface cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic, thus increasing Earth's energy imbalance and heat flux into most of the global ocean's surface. Southern Ocean surface cooling, while lower latitudes are warming, increases precipitation on the Southern Ocean, increasing ocean stratification, slowing deepwater formation, and increasing ice sheet mass loss. These feedbacks make ice sheets in contact with the ocean vulnerable to accelerating disintegration. We hypothesize that ice mass loss from the most vulnerable ice, sufficient to raise sea level several meters, is better approximated as exponential than by a more linear response. Doubling times of 10, 20 or 40 years yield multi-meter sea level rise in about 50, 100 or 200 years. Recent ice melt doubling times are near the lower end of the 10-40-year range, but the record is too short to confirm the nature of the response. The feedbacks, including subsurface ocean warming, help explain paleoclimate data and point to a dominant Southern Ocean role in controlling atmospheric CO2, which in turn exercised tight control on global temperature and sea level. The millennial (500-2000-year) timescale of deep-ocean ventilation affects the timescale for natural CO2 change and thus the timescale for paleo-global climate, ice sheet, and sea level changes, but this paleo-millennial timescale should not be misinterpreted as the timescale for ice sheet response to a rapid, large, human-made climate forcing. These climate feedbacks aid interpretation of events late in the prior interglacial, when sea level rose to C6-9m with evidence of extreme storms while Earth was less than 1 C warmer than today. Ice melt cooling of the North Atlantic and Southern oceans increases atmospheric temperature gradients, eddy kinetic energy and baroclinicity, thus driving more powerful storms. The modeling, paleoclimate evidence, and ongoing observations together imply that 2 C global warming above the preindustrial level could be dangerous. Continued high fossil fuel emissions this century are predicted to yield (1) cooling of the Southern Ocean, especially in the Western Hemisphere; (2) slowing of the Southern Ocean overturning circulation, warming of the ice shelves, and growing ice sheet mass loss; (3) slowdown and eventual shutdown of the Atlantic overturning circulation with cooling of the North Atlantic region; (4) increasingly powerful storms; and (5) nonlinearly growing sea level rise, reaching several meters over a timescale of 50-150 years. These predictions, especially the cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic with markedly reduced warming or even cooling in Europe, differ fundamentally from existing climate change assessments. We discuss observations and modeling studies needed to refute or clarify these assertions.
The Mars Science Laboratory Mission was designed to pave the way for the study of life beyond Earth through a search for a habitable environment in a carefully selected landing site on Mars. Its ongoing exploration of Gale Crater with the Curiosity Rover has provided a rich data set that revealed such an environment in an ancient lakebed [1]. Volatile and isotope measurements of both the atmosphere and solids contribute to our growing understanding of both modern and ancient environments.
Drought-induced agricultural loss is one of the most costly impacts of extreme weather, and without mitigation, climate change is likely to increase the severity and frequency of future droughts. The Dust Bowl of the 1930s was the driest and hottest for agriculture in modern US history. Improvements in farming practices have increased productivity, but yields today are still tightly linked to climate variation and the impacts of a 1930s-type drought on current and future agricultural systems remain unclear. Simulations of biophysical process and empirical models suggest that Dust-Bowl-type droughts today would have unprecedented consequences, with yield losses approx.50% larger than the severe drought of 2012. Damages at these extremes are highly sensitive to temperature, worsening by approx.25% with each degree centigrade of warming. We find that high temperatures can be more damaging than rainfall deficit, and, without adaptation, warmer mid-century temperatures with even average precipitation could lead to maize losses equivalent to the Dust Bowl drought. Warmer temperatures alongside consecutive droughts could make up to 85% of rain-fed maize at risk of changes that may persist for decades. Understanding the interactions of weather extremes and a changing agricultural system is therefore critical to effectively respond to, and minimize, the impacts of the next extreme drought event.
We analyze the complete set of in-situ meteorological data obtained from the Viking landers in the 1970s to todays Curiosity rover to review our understanding of the modern near-surface climate of Mars, with focus on the dust, CO2 and H2O cycles and their impact on the radiative and thermodynamic conditions near the surface. In particular, we provide values of the highest confidence possible for atmospheric opacity, atmospheric pressure, near-surface air temperature, ground temperature, near-surface wind speed and direction, and near-surface air relative humidity and water vapor content. Then, we study the diurnal, seasonal and interannual variability of these quantities over a span of more than twenty Martian years. Finally, we propose measurements to improve our understanding of the Martian dust and H2O cycles, and discuss the potential for liquid water formation under Mars present day conditions and its implications for future Mars missions.
Modeling is an important tool for understanding AMOC on all timescales. Mechanistic studies of modern AMOC variability have been hampered by a lack of consistency between free-running models and the sensitivity of AMOC to resolution and parameterization. Recent work within the framework of the phase two Coordinated Ocean- Reference Experiments (CORE-II) addresses this issue head on, looking at model differences of AMOC mean state and interannual variability. One consistent feature across the models is that AMOC mean transport is related to mixed layer depths and Labrador Sea salt content, whereas interannual variability is primarily associated with Labrador Sea temperature anomalies. This is consistent with the hypothesized importance of salt balance for AMOC variability on geological timescales. The simulated relationships between AMOC and subsurface temperature anomalies in fully coupled climate models reveal subsurface AMOC fingerprints that could be used to reconstruct historical AMOC variations at low frequency.With the lack of long-term AMOC observations, models of ocean state that assimilate observational data have been explored as a way to reconstruct AMOC, but comparisons between models indicate they are quite variable in their AMOC representations. Karspeck et al. (2015) found that historical reconstructions of AMOC in such models are sensitive to the details of the data assimilation procedure. The ocean data assimilation community continues to address these issues through improved models and methods for estimating and representing error information.Two objectives of paleoclimate modeling are 1) to provide mechanistic information for interpretation of paleoclimate observations, and 2) to test the ability of predictive models to simulate Earth's climate under different background forcing states. In a good example of the first objective, Schmittner and Lund (2015) and Menviel et al. (2014) provided key information about the proxy signals expected under freshwater disturbance of AMOC, which were used to support the paleoclimate observations made by Henry et al. (2016). In an example of the second objective, Muglia and Schmittner (2015) analyzed Third Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3) models of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and found consistently more intense and deeper AMOC transports relative to preindustrial simulations, counter to the paleoclimate consensus of LGM conditions, indicating that some processes are not well represented in the PMIP3 models. One challenge is to find adequate paleo observations against which to test these models. PMIP is now in phase 4 (part of CMIP6), which includes experiments covering five periods in Earth's history: the last millennium, last glacial maximum, last interglacial, and the mid-Pliocene. Newly compiled paleoclimate datasets from the PAGES2k project, more transient simulations, and participation of isotope enabled models planned for CMIP6PMIP4 will enable richer paleo data-model comparisons in the near future.
The efficiency of aircraft gas turbine engines is sensitive to the distance between the tips of its turbine blades and its shroud, which serves as its containment structure. Maintaining tighter clearance between these components has been shown to increase turbine efficiency, increase fuel efficiency, and reduce the turbine inlet temperature, and this correlates to a longer time-on-wing for the engine. Therefore, there is a desire to maintain a tight clearance in the turbine, which requires fast response active clearance control. Fast response active tip clearance control will require an actuator to modify the physical or effective tip clearance in the turbine. This paper evaluates the requirements of a generic active turbine tip clearance actuator for a modern commercial aircraft engine using the Commercial Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation 40k (C-MAPSS40k) software that has previously been integrated with a dynamic tip clearance model. A parametric study was performed in an attempt to evaluate requirements for control actuators in terms of bandwidth, rate limits, saturation limits, and deadband. Constraints on the weight of the actuation system and some considerations as to the force which the actuator must be capable of exerting and maintaining are also investigated. From the results, the relevant range of the evaluated actuator parameters can be extracted. Some additional discussion is provided on the challenges posed by the tip clearance control problem and the implications for future small core aircraft engines.
NASA is the mission lead for the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), the next of the “Great Observatories”, scheduled for launch in 2018. It is directly responsible for the integration and test (I&T) program that will culminate in an end-to-end cryo vacuum optical test of the flight telescope and instrument module in Chamber A at NASA Johnson Space Center. Historic Chamber A is the largest thermal vacuum chamber at Johnson Space Center and one of the largest space simulation chambers in the world. Chamber A has undergone a major modernization effort to support the deep cryogenic, vacuum and cleanliness requirements for testing the JWST. This paper describes the steps performed in efforts to convert the existing the 60’s era Liquid Nitrogen System from a forced flow (pumped) process to a natural circulation (thermo-siphon) process. In addition, the paper will describe the dramatic conservation of liquid nitrogen to support the long duration thermal vacuum testing. Lastly, describe the simplistic and effective control system which results in zero to minimal human inputs during steady state conditions.
NASA is the mission lead for the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), the next of the "Great Observatories", scheduled for launch in 2018. It is directly responsible for the integration and test (I&T) program that will culminate in an end-to-end cryo vacuum optical test of the flight telescope and instrument module in Chamber A at NASA Johnson Space Center. Historic Chamber A is the largest thermal vacuum chamber at Johnson Space Center and one of the largest space simulation chambers in the world. Chamber A has undergone a major modernization effort to support the deep cryogenic, vacuum and cleanliness requirements for testing the JWST. This paper describe the challenges of developing, integrating and modifying new payload rails capable of transporting payloads within the thermal vacuum chamber up to 65,000 pounds. Ambient and Cryogenic Operations required to configure for testing will be explained. Lastly review historical payload configurations stretching from the Apollo program era to current James Webb Space Telescope testing.
Astrobee is a new free-flyer robot designed to operate inside the International Space Station (ISS). Astrobee capabilities include markerless navigation, autonomous docking for recharge, perching on handrails to minimize power and modular payloads. Astrobee will operate without crew support, controlled by teleoperation, plan execution, or on-board third parties software. This paper presents the Astrobee Robot Software, a NASA Open-Source project, powering the Astrobee robot. The Astrobee Robot Software relies on a distributed architecture based on the Robot Operating System (ROS). The software runs on three interconnected smart phone class processors. We present the software approach, infrastructure required, and main software components. The Astrobee Robot Software embrace modern software practices while respecting flight constraints. The paper concludes with the lessons learned, including examples usage of the software. Several research teams are already using the Astrobee Robot Software to develop novel projects that will fly on Astrobee.
Final document is attached. NASA is the mission lead for the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), the next of the "Great Observatories", scheduled for launch in 2021. NASA is directly responsible for the integration and test (I&T) program that culminated in an end-to-end cryo vacuum optical test of the flight telescope and instrument module in Chamber A at NASA Johnson Space Center. Historic Chamber A is the largest thermal vacuum chamber at Johnson Space Center and one of the largest space simulation chambers in the world. Chamber A has undergone a major modernization effort to support the deep cryogenic, vacuum and cleanliness requirements for testing the JWST. This paper describes the upgrades to the Chamber A facility: Thermal Shrouds, Helium Refrigeration, Liquid Nitrogen System, High Vacuum System, Clean Airflow System, and Utilities.
Earth-GRAM (Earth-Global Reference Atmospheric Model) Overview: Provides monthly statistics at any point in the atmosphere; Monthly, geographic, altitude variation; Current Version - Earth-GRAM 2016, C++; Output Includes - pressure, density, temperature, horizontal and vertical winds, speed of sound, atmospheric constituents; Used by engineering community to create atmospheric dispersions at a rapid runtime; Not a forecast model. MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2) Background: Developed by NASA Goddard Modelling and Assimilation Office; Horizontal Resolution: 0.625 degrees by 0.5 degrees longitude-by-latitude grid (NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) reanalysis I vs. 2.5 degrees by 2.5 degrees currently used in Earth-GRAM); Vertical resolution: 72 model layers or interpolated to 42 pressure levels to 0.1 hectopascals (hPa) (NCEP reanalysis I, surface to 10hPa at 17 pressure levels).
A one-day workshop was held at NASA Ames Research Center, January 16, 2018, to re-examine the 1908 Tunguska impact using modern computational tools, many of them developed in response to the 2013 Chelyabinsk airburst. Twelve international experts gave presentations, with another 40 attending in-person or remotely. The most likely models for Tunguska converged on an energy of 10-20 Megatons, released in an airburst at a height of about 10 km. If the Tunguska impactor was a stony asteroid similar to Chelyabinsk, the diameter was roughly 50-80m. A comparison with current understanding of the population of asteroids in this size range indicates that the interval between such events is millennia, not centuries as had been concluded previously. The primary constraints on our understanding of Tunguska are the dearth of quantitative data, not weakness of the computational models. The workshop was sponsored by the NASA Ames Asteroid Threat Assessment Project and supported the NASA Planetary Defense Coordination Office.
Liquid water was abundant on early Mars, but whether the climate was warm and wet or cold and icy with punctuated periods of melting is still poorly understood. Modern climate models for Mars tend to predict a colder, icier early climate than previously imagined [e.g., 1]. However, any model for the early climate on Mars must be reconciled with the chemical record. We currently do not understand how alteration mineralogy formed in snow and ice dominated conditions compares to that of warmer climates, and it is unclear whether cold climate weathering could form all or any of the aqueous alteration phases expressed on early martian surfaces [2]. To help resolve this knowledge gap, we synthesize results from glacial Mars analog sites at the Three Sisters, Oregon and mafic regions of the Antarctic ice sheet, and compare them to the surface mineralogy of Mars. These sites provide the opportunity to investigate weathering in environments analogous to glacial environments on Mars throughout geologic time, including snowpacks or smaller wet-based or polythermal glaciers [3, 4] as well as the proposed extensive ice sheets of the late Noachian icy highlands model
This study examines the veracity of the tropical cyclone (TC) statistics estimated from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) global atmospheric reanalysis, focusing on the climatological-mean genesis regions, tracks and their lifetime maximum intensity, as well as the interannual and intraseasonal variations in TC activity. The results are validated against the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) data for 1980-2016. MERRA-2 represents the spatial distribution of the TC genesis location and the tracks realistically well over all main development regions (MDRs), but with notable discrepancies including too weak TC activity over the Arabian Sea and the South China Sea and too strong activity over the North Indian Ocean. Over the western North Pacific and the North Atlantic, MERRA-2 underestimates recurving TCs steered by background westerlies in the mid-latitudes and thereby exaggerates northwestward moving TCs, resulting in an overestimate of the landfall probability in East Asia and North America. Excessive development of TCs over the Bay of Bengal also tends to exaggerate the landfall probability in India. In spite of the discrepancies in the annual TC number, the seasonal variation of TC genesis is realistic in MERRA-2. MERRA-2 also captures the TC intensity relationship between the minimum pressure and the maximum surface wind speed at the mature stage, although the maximum intensity is weaker than in the observations. While MERRA-2 tends to reproduce the interannual variations of the observed TC number and the power dissipation index (PDI), the level of accuracy depends on the region. MERRA-2 describes the changes in the TC genesis region and tracks realistically according to the different phases of El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), although it is less realistic over the North Indian Ocean.
Models and simulations (M&S) are often developed to meet specific needs and unique requirements for a particular situation. Once the M&S is implemented for a specific case and questions are answered, the M&S may go dormant until a similar need arises again at a later time, perhaps months to years later. Possible modification of the M&S may be required, and issues may arise if the M&S is not well documented, captured, or available. This can severely limit the useful life of the M&S and hinder future development or enhancements. This situation occurred with an M&S tool that had been developed to determine the impact to space system performance due to the presence of molecular contaminant films accumulating on key spacecraft surfaces. The challenges and issues encountered when resurrecting, executing, and modernizing the tool will be presented as a case study. To stay ahead of tomorrow’s challenges, resources to create M&S tools must be utilized efficiently. Lessons learned from this case study will aid M&S developers and users in planning for proper maintenance, transfer, and capture of key M&S tools and knowledge to avoid increased cost, increased development time, and wasted resources for projects relying on M&S.
Although Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) as a concept has existed for over a decade, overall acceptance within the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has been slow and is now growing. Since 2016, NASA’s MBSE Infusion And Modernization Initiative (MIAMI) has proven MBSE’s value to and increased its adoption at NASA. MBSE Pathfinder projects provided focused use cases that demonstrated both qualitative and quantitative benefits for systems engineering activities, and demonstrated the ability to connect MBSE models with discipline models such as structural loads and safety and mission assurance. MIAMI assisted NASA’s field centers to establish or enhance an MBSE presence. MIAMI partners with JAXA’s Systems Technology Unit to share lessons learned and demonstrate how MBSE can be used across organizations. Following its successful test cases, MIAMI is using design thinking, lean startup, and high technology marketing methodologies to implement a targeted deployment of its Community of Practice and other resources.
One of the observational parameters of interest in ground-based optical measurements is ascertaining material properties using broadband filter photometry and spectroscopy for orbiting targets. Broadband photometry can provide reflectance measurements that can aid in color-color indices and assess if objects can be classified into families or taxonomies. However, these reflectance properties can vary due to aspect angle, phase angle, and general degradation of the target’s exterior material. Spectral characterization can aid in material characterization utilizing known absorption bands and spectra signatures, but these signatures are affected by the same conditions described for remote observations. When utilizing ground-based measurements, it is well understood that material characterization is subject to variability due to space weathering and/or other external events (i.e., collision or explosion). The focus of this study is on space weathering effects on spacecraft materials in low Earth orbit. To better assess how materials are affected by the harsh space environment, specifically modern materials, a collection of materials was analyzed in both its pristine condition and after electron bombardment. This sample collection is part of an upcoming mission with the Materials International Space Station Experiment Flight Facility (MISSE-FF) that will be launched in 2022. These laboratory analyses on the samples will provide a ground truth to compare with the in-situ collected data. The data will also be stored in the NASA Johnson Space Center’s Spacecraft Materials Spectral Database that is available to U. S. citizens and maintained by the Orbital Debris Program Office. The following paper provides an overview of the materials investigated, laboratory and database overview, and spectral results for both pristine and post-electron exposed conditions. The spectral signature data highlights which materials are stable, or remain relatively unchanged, and which materials vary significantly due to exposure and material configuration (variations due to rotation of the sample on a flat surface). Initial results on changes in spectral directional reflectance of the materials as a function of incident illumination direction are also presented. This data also will benefit the space situational awareness community with spectral characterization of novel materials that can support their respective optical measurements focused on material identification.