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At least 505 records · Page 28

An Online Tool for Preliminary Design and Techno-Economic Analysis of District Geothermal Heating and Cooling Systems

District geothermal heating and cooling systems (DGHCS) have significant benefits for reducing energy consumption as well as building- and grid-level peak electric demand. Currently, no publicly available tools are available to effectively design and conduct techno-economic analysis of DGHCS. GeoWISE was originally developed for preliminary design and techno-economic analysis of geothermal heating and cooling systems in an individual commercial or residential building. This paper introduces recent upgrades of GeoWISE that allow users to design and conduct techno-economic analysis of DGHCS. Several new features are implemented in GeoWISE to allow selection and specification of multiple new or existing buildings. A database of information for over 125 million existing U.S. buildings was used in GeoWISE that allows users easily locate existing buildings of interest based on street addresses, and optionally edit information of the buildings (e.g., footprint, vintage, principal functions, number of floors, window-to-wall ratio). Unique energy simulation models of the selected buildings are then automatically created using the Automatic Building Energy Modeling (AutoBEM) and EnergyPlus simulations are performed to predict thermal loads of the buildings. A simplified DGHCS is then designed and simulated to predict its energy use. A central borehole heat exchanger (BHE) of the DGHCS is sized using the RowWise algorithm of GHEDesigner to meet the thermal loads within user-specified land areas for installing BHE. The upgraded GeoWISE reports the needed capacity of heating and cooling equipment in each building, design of the central BHE, energy consumption reduction, and energy cost saving resulting from using DGHCS compared with conventional HVAC systems. A case study is showcased using the upgraded GeoWISE to design and conduct techno-economic analysis of a simplified DGHCS.

Prem Anand Jayaprabha, Jyothis Anand [ORNL] (ORCID↗

Automatic and rapid calibration of urban building energy models by learning from energy performance database

Urban building energy modeling (UBEM) is attracting increasing attention in the energy modeling filed. Unlike modeling a single building using detailed building systems information, UBEM generally uses limited high-level building stock data to infer default assumptions about building characteristics and operations. Additionally, this practice inherently brings uncertainty to UBEM. This study introduced a novel method of automatic and rapid calibration of UBEM based on the annual electricity and natural gas energy use data by learning the correlations between crucial model input parameters and the building energy use from the reference building models. A case study was presented to calibrate 72 large office buildings built before 1978 in San Francisco. Seventeen model parameters were selected and Monte Carlo sampling was used to create 1000 samples that reasonably represent the parameter space. Then 1000 simulations were performed for the reference building model to create an energy performance database. The results showed that by learning from the energy performance database, it took less than four simulation runs on average to calibrate a building model. After the calibration, the distributions of each parameter were obtained to replace their single predefined default values. For example, the default lighting power density of 21.39 W/m 2 was calibrated to be 7.50 W/m 2 on average. The case study successfully demonstrated the effectiveness of the novel calibration method for UBEM in the mild climate. The method will be further tested in future for other climate zones and other building types.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

WinnowML: Stable feature selection for maximizing prediction accuracy of time-based system modeling

Online deep learning (ODL) has become an important methodology for modeling time-based performance of computer systems. An open problem is the intelligent selection of features from raw workload traces of computer systems. The best methods are overly sensitive to noisy data, causing frequent feature changes and re-training. Using all available features inflates training time and introduces model artifacts if some features should have been dropped. We present WinnowML, a method for automatically determining the most relevant feature subset for a predictive time-series model. WinnowML combines existing feature ranking algorithms and a history of each feature's ranking to iteratively rank a feature set to lower prediction error and maximize long term relevance. From this ranked feature set, the most relevant and stable subset is selected to train a model. Experimentally, we show how WinnowML can lower a model's mean absolute relative error up to 42% on average compared to the closest performing approach. Additionally, we lower the fluctuation in feature ranking and selection up to 65%. We also demonstrate how to combine WinnowML and a model search tool to provide improvements in performance of up to 14.5% when compared to using all the feature available.

Bel, Oceane MS↗

Organizing principles for vegetation dynamics

Understanding vegetation dynamics is very challenging because of the multitude of contributing processes at 64widely different spatial and temporal scales. In this Perspective we propose that understanding of vegetation dynamics can be improved, permitting better predictions, based on organizing principles that constrain plant and ecosystem be haviour: natural selection, self-organization, and entropy maximization. Although these ideas are increasingly used,a limited common understanding of their theoretical basis has prevented their full potential to be realized. We explain the power of natural selection-based optimality to predict photosynthesis and carbon allocation responses to multiple environmental drivers, and how individual plasticity leads to the predictable self-organization of forest canopies. We show how models of natural selection acting on a few key traits can generate realistic plant communities, and how entropy maximization can distinguish between stochastic and deterministic drivers of vegetation patterns. In combination with empirical exploration of patterns in plant functional variation, these principles can accelerate the development of dynamic vegetation models as well as trait-based ecology resting on strengthened theoretical and empirical foundations.

Geosciences↗

Chemometric modeling of power conversion efficiency of organic dyes in dye sensitized solar cells for the future renewable energy

The present study reports chemometric modeling of power conversion efficiency (PCE) of dye sensitized solar cells (DSSCs) using the biggest available data set till date which comprises around 1200 dyes covering 7 chemical classes. To extract the best structural features required for higher PCE, we have developed multiple partial least squares (PLS) quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) models for the Triphenylamine, Phenothiazine, Indoline, Porphyrin, Coumarin, Carbazole and Diphenylamine chemical classes using descriptors derived from the best subset selection method followed by selection of best five models in each dataset based on the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) values. The models were validated both internally and externally followed by the consensus predictions employing “Intelligent Consensus Predictor” tool to examine whether the quality of predictions can be improved with the “intelligent” selection of multiple PLS models. The quality of predictions for the respective external sets showed that the consensus models (CM) are better than the individual models (IM) in most of the cases. From the insights of the developed models, we concluded that attributes like a packed structure toward higher conductivity of electrons, auxiliary donor fragment of aromatic tertiary amines, number of thiophenes inducing the bathochromic shift and augmenting the absorption, presence of additional electron donors, enhancement of electron-donating abilities, number of non-aromatic conjugated C(sp 2 ) which helps as conjugation extension units to broaden the absorption and highly conjugated $π$-systems exert positive contributions to the PCE. On the contrary, features negatively contributing to PCE are the followings: fragments which lower the tendency of localized $π–π*$ transition, fragments related to larger volume and surface area of dyes along with hydrophobicity resulting in poor adhesion, fragment RC = N causing dye hydrolysis, steric hindrance for π electronic mobility, fragments enhancing polarity, etc. Finally, the identified features from the best QSPR model of the coumarin dataset was employed in designing of ten more efficient coumarin dyes (predicted %PCE ranging from 8.93 to 10.62) than the existing ones.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Robust Statistical Approach for Determination of Graphite Nitridation Using Bayesian Model Comparison

A better estimation of surface reaction efficiency of semiconductor-grade graphite with atomic nitrogen, as well as the calibration error are calculated using Bayesian updating based on experimental data. Compared with a conventional deterministic model, the stochastic model approach is a powerful tool in the sense that the model is capable of taking into account underlying error correlations among the data quantities. In this paper, we investigate four different stochastic models (called “stochastic system model classes” herein) corresponding to different descriptions of modeling and measurement error structures, given one deterministic physical model. These stochastic system model classes differ in the covariance matrix structure that is used in the uncertainty model to represent uncertainties associated with the physical model and experimental measurements. For each model class, Bayesian inference is used to estimate the posterior probabilities of the physical model parameters as well as of the stochastic model parameters. Model comparison and selection are then applied based on two measures including Bayesian evidence and Bayesian information criterion, as well as the deviance information criterion. Both measures suggest the stochastic model class, which considers that a correlation between errors in two data quantities among different data points is the most plausible. With the stochastic model class, the range of uncertainty in surface reaction efficiency is estimated to be about two orders of magnitude at [Formula: see text].

Engineering↗

Sensitivity analysis of an automated fault detection algorithm for residential air-conditioning systems

The state of the art of fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) for residential air-conditioning systems is expensive and not yet amenable to widespread implementation. FDD for homes can significantly reduce utility costs, and increase the lifespan of the equipment. The cost barriers currently, however, make FDD for homes economically unviable for large scale implementation. In prior work, we offered a solution to reduce FDD costs by proposing an automated fault detection algorithm to serve as a screening step before more expensive FDD tests can be conducted. The algorithm uses only the home thermostat and local weather information to identify thermodynamic parameters and detect high-impact air-conditioning faults, including those that occur during equipment installation. We had tested the algorithm on a single EnergyPlus™ model of a home in Orlando, Florida. The thermodynamic parameter identification process is highly nonconvex involving several local optimal solutions. In this paper we propose a novel method to select the best model for fault detection from among the list of local optimal solutions to make the algorithm more robust to homes of different construction, without which the fault detection process would be infeasible. Another unique contribution of the paper is implementing the solution on real-world data. We also bring the algorithm closer to market by testing it on real-world data. We implement the algorithm on data obtained from experiments conducted by the Florida Solar Energy Center (FSEC) on a laboratory home equipped with a heat pump where faults were intentionally added for a period of seven months. The algorithm successfully detected an undercharge fault with 70.6% accuracy, concurrent duct leakage and undercharge faults with 85.2% accuracy, and duct leakage faults with 69.1% accuracy. A sensitivity analysis is also performed on EnergyPlus models of nine types of homes that vary in construction to demonstrate the robustness of the algorithm. Finally, the algorithm achieves an average accuracy of 71% for no-fault condition, 77% for 40% undercharge fault, and 76% for duct-leak fault.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Selection of optimal wavelengths for optical soiling modelling and detection in photovoltaic modules

Soiling impacts the photovoltaic (PV) module performance by decreasing the amount of light reaching the photovoltaic cells and by changing their external spectral response. Currently, the soiling monitoring market is moving toward optical sensors that measure transmittance or reflectance, rather than directly measuring the impact of soiling on the performance of photovoltaic modules. These sensors, which use a single optical measurement, are not able to correct the soiling losses that depend on the solar irradiance spectra and on the spectral response of the monitored PV material. This work investigates methods that can improve the optical detection of soiling by extracting the full soiling spectrum profiles using only two or three monochromatic measurements. Spectral transmittance data, measured with a spectrophotometer and collected during a 46-week experimental soiling study carried out in Jaén, Spain, was analysed in this work. The use of a spectral profile for the hemispherical transmittance of soiled PV glass is found to significantly improve the soiling detection, returning the lowest errors independently of the PV materials and irradiance conditions. In addition, this work shows that it is also possible to select the measurement wavelengths to minimize the soiling loss detection error depending on the monitored PV semiconductor material (silicon, CdTe, a-Si, CIGS and a representative perovskite). The approaches discussed in this work are also found to be more robust to potential measurement errors compared to single wavelength measurement techniques.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Qualitative trend analysis based on a mixed-integer representation

Shape constrained spline fitting is a useful method to impose prior knowledge onto flexible semi-parametric models during parameter estimation. Most typically, the function shape is imposed through order restrictions on the regression coefficients. The intended shape is considered known or selected based on heuristic rules. In this study, we present a method to estimate the optimal set of order restrictions to segment a univariate data series into episodes with distinct shapes. This is also known as the qualitative trend analysis (QTA) problem. The obtained solution uses a trade-off between lack-of-fit and model complexity. Further, our practical implementation takes inspiration from the generalized order restricted information criterion (GORIC) for inequality-constrained model selection. From this, one learns (a) that QTA can be formulated as a mixed-integer quadratic program (MIQP) and (b) that the newly proposed mixed order restricted information criterion (MORIC) enables optimal segmentation. This is illustrated through didactic case studies.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Mechanistic Study of 1,2-Dichloroethane Hydrodechlorination on Cu-Rich Pt–Cu Alloys: Combining Reaction Kinetics Experiments with DFT Calculations and Microkinetic Modeling

Cu-rich Pt–Cu bimetallic catalysts are among the most promising candidates for actively catalyzing the hydrodechlorination of 1,2-dichloroethane (1,2-DCA) toward ethylene production. Combining reaction kinetics experiments with density functional theory (DFT) calculations and mean-field microkinetic modeling, we present a systematic mechanistic study for 1,2-DCA hydrodechlorination on Cu-rich Pt–Cu alloy catalysts. Our DFT (PBE+(TS+SCS)) results suggest that increasing Cu content in the Pt–Cu alloy destabilizes C 2 -species adsorption while stabilizing the binding of atomic chlorine. The reaction energetics of all the elementary steps in the 1,2-DCA reaction network were calculated on a Pt 1 Cu 3 (111) model surface. The DFT results were then used to construct a microkinetic model, and the model-predicted reaction rates were compared with our reaction kinetics experimental results on a Cu-rich SiO 2 -supported Pt–Cu alloy catalyst through a parameter estimation procedure. Both the reaction kinetics experiments and the microkinetic model after parameter adjustments yielded 100% selectivity to ethylene. The microkinetic model pointed to a reaction pathway involving two sequential chlorine-removal steps on the Pt–Cu alloy catalyst, a mechanism distinct from the one previously identified on pure Pt/SiO 2 catalysts, which involved an initial hydrogen-removal step. Adjustments to the DFT-derived parameters indicate the possible formation of chlorine-induced Cu-enriched surface sites during 1,2-DCA hydrodechlorination conditions, sites that are more active than those encountered in the bulk Pt 1 Cu 3 (111) alloy surface. Furthermore, our study offers valuable initial insights on the 1,2-DCA hydrodechlorination reaction mechanism and the nature of the active sites on PtCu bimetallic catalysts.

1,2-Dichloroethane↗

A Southern Photometric Quasar Catalog from the Dark Energy Survey Data Release 2

We present a catalog of 1.4 million photometrically selected quasar candidates in the southern hemisphere over the ~5000 deg 2 Dark Energy Survey (DES) wide survey area. We combine optical photometry from the DES second data release (DR2) with available near-infrared (NIR) and the all-sky unWISE mid-infrared photometry in the selection. We build models of quasars, galaxies, and stars with multivariate skew-t distributions in the multidimensional space of relative fluxes as functions of redshift (or color for stars) and magnitude. Our selection algorithm assigns probabilities for quasars, galaxies, and stars and simultaneously calculates photometric redshifts (photo-z) for quasar and galaxy candidates. Benchmarking on spectroscopically confirmed objects, we successfully classify (with photometry) 94.7% of quasars, 99.3% of galaxies, and 96.3% of stars when all IR bands (NIR YJHK and WISE W1W2) are available. The classification and photo-z regression success rates decrease when fewer bands are available. Our quasar (galaxy) photo-z quality, defined as the fraction of objects with the difference between the photo-z z p and the spectroscopic redshift z s , |Δz| ≡ |z s - z p |/(1 + z s ) ≤ 0.1, is 92.2% (98.1%) when all IR bands are available, decreasing to 72.2% (90.0%) using optical DES data only. Our photometric quasar catalog achieves an estimated completeness of 89% and purity of 79% at r < 21.5 (0.68 million quasar candidates), with reduced completeness and purity at 21.5 < r ≲ 24. Among the 1.4 million quasar candidates, 87,857 have existing spectra, and 84,978 (96.7%) of them are spectroscopically confirmed quasars. Finally, we provide quasar, galaxy, and star probabilities for all (0.69 billion) photometric sources in the DES DR2 coadded photometric catalog.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Autonomous Inversion of In Situ Deformation Measurement Data for Injection-Induced Stress Change

Geologic carbon storage (GCS) is likely to play a key part of the global effort to dramatically reduce CO2 emissions and perhaps even reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations through carbon negative operations. A critical part of effort to commercialize and widely deploy this technology is developing the capability to rapidly assimilate real-time monitoring data into a form that will enable site operators to make decisions to manage the safe and efficient operations. Two of the risks associate with GCS are the risk of inducing fractures in the sealing formations that can create leakage pathways and the risk of inducing earthquakes of sufficient magnitude to cause public concern, property damage, or safety risks. To properly manage these risks the site operator needs to know the initial state of stress, the change in stress induced by injection, and the relationship between operational parameters such as injection rate and pressure and the change in stress. Current methods of estimating the change in stress require choosing the type of constitutive model and the model parameters based on core, log, and geophysical data during the characterization phase, with little feedback from operational observations to validate or refine these choices. These characterization methods interrogate the geologic formations using length scales, loading rates or magnitudes that are quite different from those encountered by the actual storage system. It is shown that errors in the assumed constitutive response, even when informed by laboratory tests on core samples, are likely to be common, large, and underestimate the magnitude of stress change caused by injection. Recent advances in borehole-based strain instruments and borehole and surface-based tilt and displacement instruments have now enabled monitoring of the deformation of the storage system throughout its operational lifespan. This data can enable validation and refinement of the knowledge of the geomechanical properties and state of the system, but brings with it a challenge to transform the raw data into actionable knowledge. We demonstrate a method that uses automatic differentiation and a finite-element based geomechanical model perform a gradient-based deterministic inversion of geomechanical monitoring data. This approach allows autonomous integration of the instrument data without the need for time consuming manual interpretation and selection of updated model parameters. Furthermore, only isotropic linear elasticity is considered in this paper, the approach presented is very flexible as to what type of geomechanical constitutive response can be used. The approach is easily adaptable to nonlinear physics-based constitutive models to account for common rock behaviors such as creep and plasticity. The approach also enables training of machine learning-based constitutive models by allowing back propagation of errors through the finite element calculations. This enables strongly enforcing known physics, such as conservation of momentum and continuity, while allowing data-driven models to learn the truly unknown physics such as the constitutive or petrophysical responses.

Burghardt, Jeffrey A.↗

Assessing the Accuracy of Property Model Predictions for Cost Optimization of Desalination Technologies

Accurate modeling of seawater thermophysical and thermodynamic properties is critical for optimizing desalination processes. This study compares three seawater property models, a Reaktoro multicomponent model, the thermophysical seawater properties library from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and a simplified sodium chloride model, in the context of levelized cost of water (LCOW) minimization for reverse osmosis (RO) and mechanical vapor compression systems. Process simulations and cost optimizations reveal that although all three models yield comparable LCOW and specific energy consumption (SEC) estimates under baseline conditions, deviations among their predictions increase with salinity. Relative differences in LCOW and SEC reach up to 6% and 8%, respectively. RO results show greater variability due to differences in osmotic pressure predictions, which affect pressure constraints at high recoveries. Computational performance varies substantially; specifically, Reaktoro simulations are up to 28 times slower than empirical models due to their detailed equilibrium calculations. These results suggest that empirical models offer acceptable accuracy for routine desalination process design, while Reaktoro provides advantages in scenarios requiring detailed speciation, such as scaling or pH adjustment studies. These findings underscore the importance of selecting appropriate property models based on the modeling objective of desalination applications and motivate future work integrating thermodynamic rigor with empirical efficiency.

Physical and chemical properties↗

Optimal renormalization of multiscale systems

While model order reduction is a promising approach in dealing with multi-scale time-dependent systems that are too large or too expensive to simulate for long times, the resulting reduced order models can suffer from instabilities. We have recently developed a time-dependent renormalization approach to stabilize such reduced models. In the current work, we extend this framework by introducing a parameter that controls the time-decay of the memory of such models and optimally selecting this parameter based on limited fully resolved simulations. First, we demonstrate our framework on the inviscid Burgers equation whose solution develops a finite-time singularity. Our renormalized reduced order models are stable and accurate for long times while using for their calibration only data from a full order simulation before the occurrence of the singularity. Furthermore, we apply this framework to the 3D Euler equations of incompressible fluid flow, where the problem of finite-time singularity formation is still open and where brute force simulation is only feasible for short times. Our approach allows us to obtain for the first time a perturbatively renormalizable model which is stable for long times and includes all the complex effects present in the 3D Euler dynamics. We find that, in each application, the renormalization coefficients display algebraic decay with increasing resolution, and that the parameter which controls the time-decay of the memory is problem-dependent.

Price, Jacob↗

Electrochemically modulated single-molecule localization microscopy for in vitro imaging cytoskeletal protein structures

A new concept of electrochemically modulated single-molecule localization super-resolution imaging is developed. Applications of single-molecule localization super-resolution microscopy have been limited due to insufficient availability of qualified fluorophores with favorable low duty cycles. The key for the new concept is that the “On” state of a redox-active fluorophore with unfavorable high duty cycle could be driven to “Off” state by electrochemical potential modulation and thus become available for single-molecule localization imaging. The new concept was carried out using redox-active cresyl violet with unfavorable high duty cycle as a model fluorophore by synchronizing electrochemical potential scanning with a single-molecule localization microscope. The two cytoskeletal protein structures, the microtubules from porcine brain and the actins from rabbit muscle, were selected as the model target structures for the conceptual imaging in vitro. The super-resolution images of microtubules and actins were obtained from precise single-molecule localizations determined by modulating the On/Off states of single fluorophore molecules on the cytoskeletal proteins via electrochemical potential scanning. Importantly, this method could allow more fluorophores even with unfavorable photophysical properties to become available for a wider and more extensive application of single-molecule localization microscopy.

electrochemical modulation↗

Sensor Selection for MIMO Vibration [Slides]

Objectives: Introduce a sensor selection approach to assist test engineers with MIMO test design. Demonstrate the capability of the approach. Approach: Define a desired response from a field model. Supply the sensor selection technique to two lab models, with different boundary conditions than the “field” model. Compare the laboratory response to the field response using sensors selected from the approach.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Incorporating FLEX Strategies in Multi-Unit Probabilistic Risk Assessment

The catastrophic Fukushima nuclear accident reminded nuclear community about the possibilities of extreme accident scenarios, including those involving multiple reactor units on the same site. As the responses to the Fukushima accident, the nuclear power industry developed and implemented a series of strategies, including the Diverse and Flexible Coping Strategies (FLEX), to enhance the coping capacities of nuclear power plants (NPPs) under extreme accidents. This study intends to examine the impact of FLEX strategies on the risk from all the reactor units on the same NPP site, including risks from accidents involving a single unit and from accidents involving multiple units. The fundamental, methodological element of this study is Multi-Unit Probabilistic Risk Assessment (MUPRA), which requires a shift in Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) from a “one-reactor-at-a-time” mindset to a “considering all reactors sharing a site as a unity” one. An integrated modeling approach for multi-unit event sequence development will be leveraged to develop MUPRA model and address the intra-unit and inter-unit dependencies. Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE), a PRA software developed and maintained by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), will serve as the platform for MUPRA modeling. This study selects Loss Of Offsite Power (LOOP) as a representative initiating event, which may occur on a generic two-unit NPP site and impacts both reactor units on the site. First, an MUPRA model, including multi-unit event trees, will be developed to obtain single-unit and multi-unit accident scenarios. Next, different FLEX strategies will be assumed, including FLEX equipment for a unit cannot be used for another unit, FLEX equipment for multiple units can be used in a cross-connected manner, etc. Lastly, the effectiveness of each postulated FLEX strategy will be evaluated by incorporating the corresponding FLEX equipment and deployment logic in the MUPRA model.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Simulation-based Performance Evaluation of Model Predictive Control for Building Energy Systems

The performance of model predictive control (MPC) can be significantly affected by different choices of controller parameters such as the time intervals for model discretization and control sampling. Due to the lack of a systematic understanding on how these parameters affect control performance, they are usually selected arbitrarily in practice.In this paper, the combined impacts of selected time intervals for model discretization and control sampling on the performance of MPC are comprehensively investigated for the first time through detailed simulations. Specifically, a typical MPC strategy is first designed to improve building operations based on a reduced-order model of building dynamics. Then, the performance of the designed MPC is evaluated against different choices of time intervals for model discretization and control sampling on a simulated office building. The detailed simulation results reveal that the time interval for model discretization has a much greater influence on the performance of MPC than the time interval for control sampling. Although the time interval for control sampling usually receives more attentions in practice, it turns out that the time interval for model discretization affects the prediction performance, cost saving, and computation time simultaneously and more significantly. Therefore, the simulation-based performance evaluation presented here sheds light on the impacts of different time intervals and facilitates their selection for practical applications of MPC to building operations

Huang, Sen↗