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At least 505 records · Page 28

The effect of friction in the hold down post spherical bearings on hold down post loads

The effect of friction at the connection of the Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) aft skirt and the mobile launch platform (MLP) hold down posts was analyzed. A simplified model of the shuttle response during the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) buildup was constructed. The model included the effect of stick-slip friction for the rotation of the skirt about the spherical bearing. Current finite element models assume the joint is completely frictionless in rotation and therefore no moment is transferred between the skirt and the hold down posts. The model was partially verified against test data and preliminary parameter studies were performed. The parameter studies indicated that the coefficient of friction strongly influenced the moment on the hold down posts. The coefficient of friction had little effect on hold down post vertical loads, however. Further calibration of the model is necessary before the effect of friction on the hold down post horizontal loads can be analyzed.

Richardson, James A.↗

Experimental, physical and numerical modeling of lunar regolith and lunar regolith structures

An extensive series of laboratory strength and deformation experiments have been performed on a lunar regolith simulant. Results of these experiments are compared to results from experiments on real lunar regolith from the Apollo and Luna missions to illustrate the suitability of this material in capturing the engineering properties lunar regolith. In addition, these results are used to calibrate a constitutive model used to describe its stress-strain behavior. This model, in conjunction with numerical analysis techniques, is used to predict the response i.e. material parameters) of lunar simulant under 1/6-g and low confining stress conditions. These tools are also used to predict the displacement response of a lunar soil embankment structure used to cover a first generation human habitat module, which might be used to accommodate the first astronauts revisiting the moon. These predictions are compared to physical models of this structure, which are tested in a geotechnical centrifuge in order to satisfy scaling relationships between prototype and model.

Perkins, Steven W.↗

Thermal analytic model of 30 cm engineering model mercury ion thruster

A lumped parameter thermal nodal network was developed for a 30 cm Engineering Model Mercury Ion Thruster. The network consists of approximately 100 nodes coded in SINDA format for use on the Univac 1106/1108 computer. This model takes into account internal dissipation, radiation, and conduction as well as environmental heating. A series of tests were performed to simulate a wide range of thermal environments on an operating 30 cm thruster, instrumented to measure the temperature distribution within the thruster. The results of these tests were used to calibrate the analytical model. The analytical model along with comparisons between analytical and experimental results for the various operating conditions are presented.

Oglebay, J. C.↗

MODIS Reflective Solar Bands Lunar Calibration Update and Improvements

The MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments on-board the Terra and Aqua spacecrafts were launched on December 18, 1999 and May 4, 2002, respectively. Each instrument has been scheduled to view the Moon through its Space View (SV) port approximately once per month in order to monitor the long-term radiometric stability of their reflective solar bands (RSB). The lunar calibration has played a key role in tracking the change in the response versus scan angle (RVS) of the instrument’s scan mirror, which is an essential part of the RSB calibration. The lunar irradiance observed by MODIS depends on the view geometry and it is crucial to remove the geometric effects in order to derive accurate RSB calibration coefficients. With a scheduled roll maneuver, the lunar phase angles are kept in a narrow range of 1° for each MODIS instrument such that the impact of these geometric effects is minimized. Nevertheless, it remains a challenge to completely remove the impact of geometric effects in the calibration coefficients derived from the lunar observations, considering the high expectations for the accuracy and quality of the results. In the current MODIS lunar calibration, the geometric effects on the lunar irradiance are corrected by the RObotic Lunar Observatory (ROLO) model. The overall relative uncertainty of the ROLO model for the MODIS calibration has been assessed to be about 1% in the selected lunar phase angle range of 1°. It could be as large as 4% beyond this small phase angle range, especially for the shortest wavelengths. This uncertainty induces noticeable oscillations in the calibration coefficients derived from the lunar observations. We developed a simple lunar model, which is based on MODIS lunar measurements, derived from scheduled lunar observations, as well as those obtained from intrusion of the Moon in the SV, referred to as unscheduled lunar observations, in the time period from 2005 to 2012. Here, the scheduled lunar observations for the entire mission are reprocessed with the new lunar model applied to correct the view geometry effects for each MODIS instrument. New calibration coefficients for the RSBs are calculated. We show that oscillations and noise in the derived lunar calibration coefficients are significantly reduced for both MODIS instruments.

Terra↗

A Multidisciplinary Modeling Approach of Plant Gas Exchange in Reduced Gravity Environments

In-situ food production is a necessary step for human exploration of the solar system and requires a deep understanding of plant growth in reduced gravity environments. In particular, the lack of buoyancy-driven convection changes the gas exchange at the leaf surface, which decreases photosynthesis and transpiration rates, and ultimately biomass production. To understand the intricate relations between physical, chemical, and biochemical processes, the following methodology combines the development of a mechanistic model of plant growth in reduced gravity environments, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations, and experiments in different time frames.The model presented here is a coupled mass and energy balance using the single round leaf assumption, including gravity as an entry parameter, and the leaf surface temperature as an output variable. Measures of the leaf surface temperature using infra-red cameras allow for a computation of the transpiration rate. This approach was followed to design a parabolic flight experiment, which performed 7 flights, and enabled data collection for model validation in different gravity and ventilation settings on a short time frame. Current measures of carbon assimilation and transpiration rate at the leaf and canopy level using an infra-red gas analyzer (Li-6800) in 1g lab conditions on several species will enable a validation on longer time frames and further calibration of the model. CFD studies both on the parabolic flight and on the lab experimental set-up allow the precise assessment of ventilation above the canopy and plants' leaves.Ultimately, this work will provide recommendations for the design of future plant growth hardware, especially on the lowest adequate ventilation for optimal plant growth in reduced gravity environments, as well as assessing biomass and oxygen production rates on planetary surfaces and space stations. This work was funded by CNES, CNRS, Clermont Auvergne Metropole, and NASA Space Biology through NASA postdoctoral program / USRA.

Poulet, Lucie↗

LOFTID Heat Flux Gauge Calibration: What is Truth?

The Low-Earth Orbit Flight Test of an Inflatable Decelerator (LOFTID) is a demonstration of Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator (HIAD) technology, which may enable the delivery of heavy payloads to Mars, Venus, and Titan, as well as return to Earth. Unlike rigid aeroshells that are constrained by the size of the rocket’s shroud, inflatable aeroshells can be deployed to a much larger scale, thus allowing a spacecraft to begin its deceleration earlier and experience less heating. On LOFTID, there will be 4 total heat flux gauges (HFG) with a range of 70 W/cm2 and 1 radiometer with a range of 3 W/cm2, arranged as shown in Fig. 1. Both the radiometer and total HFGs are Schmidt-Boelter gauges purchased from an external vendor. Radiative calibrations were performed in-house at NASA Ames’ Sensors and TPS Advanced Research Laboratories (STAR Labs) before and after environmental testing to investigate how the testing affected the sensors' response. Additional rounds of radiative calibration at STAR Labs were also performed in order to investigate the large uncertainties associated with these tests. For example, a survey of multiple calibration facilities concluded that the uncertainty within a given facility was +/-3% [1]. An additional NIST study that calibrated heat flux gauges at 7 different facilities also found the variation in calibration coefficients to be up to ~3% within a given facility, but up to 15% between facilities, suggesting systematic differences between test setups [2]. Finally, the response of heat flux gauges to radiative versus convective heat flux has shown to differ by up to 20% [3],[4]. Because the heat flux gauges on LOFTID will predominantly experience convective heat flux during flight, a convective calibration study was performed at Boeing's Large-Core Arc Tunnel (LCAT) facility. Radiative Calibration Procedure The calibrations performed at STAR Labs utilize a quartz lamp bank (QLB) that provides a maximum heat flux of 50 W/cm2, which bounds the expected LOFTID flight environment. The calibration involves exposing a water-cooled Gardon gauge (reference) and then the unit-under-test (UUT) to 5 different heat fluxes multiple times for 10 seconds each, and then calculating a linear fit. The test setup is shown in Fig. 2. The total HFGs were calibrated at STAR Labs 3 times, denoted as STAR 1 (before environmental testing), STAR 2 (after protoflight vibration and thermal-vacuum testing), and STAR 3 (no change from previous test). All 8 flight-lot total HFGs showed a decrease in full-scale output from STAR 1 to STAR 2 by between 0.5% and 10. The first portion of this investigation was to determine whether the change could be due to differences in temperature between the two calibration runs. A typical linear fit to the calibration data was performed using Eq. 1 where q’ is the heat flux in W/cm2, c is the calibration coefficient, and mV is the sensor output. To account for temperature, the data were fit to a nonlinear function that included both the sensor output (mV) and the temperature from the thermocouple embedded inside the HFG near the surface (T): q'=mV/(c1* T + c0}. The residuals between the fits and the actual data points were calculated for every point, and proven to be much smaller for the temperature-compensated fits than for the linear fits for all sensors. An example is shown in Fig. 3. When the temperature-compensated fits from STAR 1 were applied to the STAR 2 data, the residuals did not improve, suggesting that the change in sensitivity between these two calibration runs was not due to temperature. A third round of calibration (STAR 3) was conducted to further address the temperature dependence of the total HFGs, and the resulting sensitivities matched closely to STAR 2 (within 2%). Temperature-compensated calibration curves were once again fit to the data. In this case, when the temperature-compensated fits from STAR 3 were applied to STAR 2 data, the residuals between the fits and STAR 2 data were much lower than the residuals due to the linear fits. This suggests that the changes seen between STAR 1 and STAR 2 were likely due to actual changes in the sensors caused by the environmental testing between the two calibrations. A modification of the original calibration process, in which the UUT was exposed to each heat flux for just 3 seconds (instead of 10) to reduce the temperature increase during the test, was additionally performed on several of the HFGs. In general, the sensitivities were 1-1.5% lower than from the 10-second tests, but the temperatures were also significantly lower. When the temperature-compensated fits from the 10-second tests were applied to the 3-second test data, the residuals were greatly improved than when just using the linear fits, further suggesting that the temperature-compensated fits may lead to better accuracy than the linear fits in flight. Convective Calibration The second portion of this study was to create a mapping between the radiative and convective calibration coefficients. The majority of the heating during flight will be convective, so it is important to understand how the HFG response differs under these conditions. However, there are no standardized methods for convective calibration [5]. Because the TPS aerothermal response models were validated at LCAT, the same facility was chosen for convective calibration of two of the total HFGs (Fig. 4). Preliminary results showed that the full-scale output was 3% and 8% higher in convective heat flux as compared to radiative heat flux. However, tunnel variation may have contributed to noise and uncertainty in the measurements, and more testing and analysis remains to be done. Scope of Presentation The presentation will include an overview of the changes seen in HFG calibration before and after environmental testing, differences between radiative and convective calibrations, the modeling work done to aid in understanding the sensor response to varying environments, and recommended future work.

H S Alpert↗

Thermal analytical model of a 30 cm mercury ion thruster

A lumped parameter thermal nodal network has been developed for a 30 cm engineering model mercury ion thruster. The network consists of approximately 100 nodes coded in SINDA format for use on the Univac 1106/1108 computer. This model takes into account internal dissipation, radiation, and conduction as well as environmental heating. A series of tests were performed at NASA-Lewis Research Center to simulate a wide range of thermal environments on an operating 30 cm thruster, instrumented to measure the temperature distribution within the thruster. The results of these tests were used to calibrate the analytical model. Presented in this paper are a description of the analytical model along with comparisons between analytical and experimental results for the various operating conditions.

Oglebay, J. C.↗

Investigation of remote sensing techniques of measuring soil moisture

Major activities described include development and evaluation of theoretical models that describe both active and passive microwave sensing of soil moisture, the evaluation of these models for their applicability, the execution of a controlled field experiment during which passive microwave measurements were acquired to validate these models, and evaluation of previously acquired aircraft microwave measurements. The development of a root zone soil water and soil temperature profile model and the calibration and evaluation of gamma ray attenuation probes for measuring soil moisture profiles are considered. The analysis of spatial variability of soil information as related to remote sensing is discussed as well as the implementation of an instrumented field site for acquisition of soil moisture and meteorologic information for use in validating the soil water profile and soil temperature profile models.

Newton, R. W.↗

Spectral Irradiance Calibration in the Infrared: Comparison of (alpha) Bootis and 1 Ceres with a Laboratory Standard - 11

Infrared spectra of two celestial objects frequently used as flux standards are calibrated against an absolute laboratory flux standard at a spectral resolving power of 100 to 200. The spectrum of the KI.5 III star alpha Boo is measured from 3 to 30 microns, and that of the C-type asteroid 1 Ceres from 5 to 30 microns. While these "standard" spectra do not have the apparent precision of those based on calculated models, they do not require the assumptions involved in theoretical models of stars and asteroids. Specifically, they provide a model-independent means of calibrating celestial flux in the spectral range from 12 to 30 microns, where accurate absolute photometry is not available. The agreement found between the spectral shapes of alpha Boo and Ceres based on laboratory standards and those based on observed ratios to alpha CMa (Sirius) and alpha Lyr (Vega), flux-calibrated by theoretical modeling of these hot stars, strengthens our confidence in the applicability of the stellar models as primary irradiance standards.

Witteborn, Fred C.↗

Spectral Irradiance Calibration in the Infrared 11: Comparison of (alpha) Boo and 1 Ceres with a Laboratory Standard

Infrared spectra of two celestial objects frequently used as flux standards are calibrated against an absolute laboratory flux standard at a spectral resolving power of 100 to 200. The spectrum of the K1.5III star, alpha Boo, is measured from 3 microns to 30 microns and that of the C-type asteroid, 1 Ceres, from 5 microns to 30 microns. While these 'standard' spectra do not have the apparent precision of those based on calculated models, they do not require the assumptions involved in theoretical models of stars and asteroids. Specifically they provide a model-independent means of calibrating celestial flux in the spectral range from 12 microns to 30 microns where accurate absolute photometry is not available. The agreement found between the spectral shapes of alpha Boo and Ceres based on laboratory standards, and those based on observed ratios to alpha CMa (Sirius) and alpha Lyr (Vega), flux calibrated by theoretical modeling of these hot stars strengthens our confidence in the applicability of the stellar models as primary irradiance standards.

Witteborn, Fred C.↗

Spatially-Explicit Monitoring of Crop Photosynthetic Capacity Through the Use of Space-Based Chlorophyll Fluorescence Data

Plant functional traits such as photosynthetic capacity are critical parameters for terrestrial biosphere models. However, their spatial and temporal characteristics are still poorly represented. In this study, we used satellite observations of sun-induced fluorescence (SIF) to estimate top-of-canopy photosynthetic capacity (maximum carboxylation rate, V(sub cmax) at a reference temperature of 25 deg C) for crops, which was in turn utilized to simulate regional gross primary production (GPP). We first estimate the key parameter, V(sub cmax), in the widely-used FvCB photosynthesis model using field measurements of CO2 and water fluxes during 2007-2012 at seven crop eddy covariance flux sites over the US Corn Belt. The results showed that satellite far-red SIF retrievals have a stronger link to V(sub cmax) at the seasonal scale (R(squared)=0.70 for C4 and R(squared)=0.63 for C3 crop) as compared with widely-used vegetation indices. We calibrate an empirical model linking V(sub cmax) with SIF that was used to estimate spatially and temporally varying crop V(sub cmax) for the US Corn Belt region. The resulting V(sub cmax) maps are used together with meteorological data from MERRA reanalysis data and vegetation structural parameters derived from the satellite- based spectral reflectance data to constrain the Soil-Canopy Observation of Photosynthesis and Energy (SCOPE) balance model in order to estimate regional crop GPP. Our results show a substantial improvement in the seasonal and spatial patterns of cropland GPP when compared with crop yield inventory data. The evaluation with tall tower atmospheric CO2 measurements further supports our estimation of spatiotemporal V(sub cmax) from space-borne SIF. Considering that SIF has a direct link to photosynthetic activity, our findings highlight the potential to infer regional V(sub cmax) using remotely sensed SIF data and to use this information for a better quantification of regional cropland carbon cycles.

Drought↗

The Lunar Potential Determination Using Apollo-Era Data and Modern Measurements and Models

Since the Apollo era the electric potential of the Moon has been a subject of interest and debate. Deployed by three Apollo missions, Apollo 12, Apollo 14 and Apollo 15, the Suprathermal Ion Detector Experiment (SIDE) determined the sunlit lunar surface potential to be about +10 Volts using the energy spectra of lunar ionospheric thermal ions accelerated toward the Moon. More recently, the Lunar Prospector (LP) Electron Reflectometer used electron distributions to infer negative lunar surface potentials, primarily in shadow. We will present initial results from a study to combine lunar surface potential measurements from both SIDE and the LP/Electron Reflectometer to calibrate an advanced model of lunar surface charging which includes effects from the plasma environment, photoemission, secondaries ejected by ion impact onto the lunar surface, and the lunar wake created downstream by the solar wind-lunar interaction.

Collier, Michael R.↗

A baroclinic quasigeostrophic open ocean model

A baroclinic quasigeostrophic open ocean model is presented, calibrated by a series of test problems, and demonstrated to be feasible and efficient for application to realistic mid-oceanic mesoscale eddy flow regimes. Two methods of treating the depth dependence of the flow, a finite difference method and a collocation method, are tested and intercompared. Sample Rossby wave calculations with and without advection are performed with constant stratification and two levels of nonlinearity, one weaker than and one typical of real ocean flows. Using exact analytical solutions for comparison, the accuracy and efficiency of the model is tabulated as a function of the computational parameters and stability limits set; typically, errors were controlled between 1 percent and 10 percent RMS after two wave periods. Further Rossby wave tests with realistic stratification and wave parameters chosen to mimic real ocean conditions were performed to determine computational parameters for use with real and simulated data. Finally, a prototype calculation with quasiturbulent simulated data was performed successfully, which demonstrates the practicality of the model for scientific use.

Miller, R. N.↗

Ionospheric calibration for single frequency altimeter measurements

This study is a preliminary analysis of the effectiveness (in terms of altimeter calibration accuracy) of various ionosphere models and the Global Positioning System (GPS) to calibrate single frequency altimeter height measurements for ionospheric path delay. In particular, the research focused on ingesting GPS Total Electron Content (TEC) data into the physical Parameterized Real-Time Ionospheric Specification Model (PRISM), which estimates the composition of the ionosphere using independent empirical and physical models and has the capability of adjusting to additional ionospheric measurements. Two types of GPS data were used to adjust the PRISM model: GPS receiver station data mapped from line-of-sight observations to the vertical at the point of interest and a grid map (generated at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory) of GPS derived TEC in a sun-fixed longitude frame. The adjusted PRISM TEC values, as well as predictions by the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI-90), a climatological (monthly mean) model of the ionosphere, were compared to TOPEX dual-frequency TEC measurements (considered as truth) for a number of TOPEX sub-satellite tracks. For a 13.6 GHz altimeter, a Total Electron Content (TEC) of 1 TECU 10(exp 16) electrons/sq m corresponds to approximately 0.218 centimeters of range delay. A maximum expected TEC (at solar maximum or during solar storms) of 10(exp 18) electrons/sq m will create 22 centimeters of range delay. Compared with the TOPEX data, the PRISM predictions were generally accurate within the TECU when the sub-satellite track of interest passed within 300 to 400 km of the GPS TEC data or when the track passed through a night-time ionosphere. If neither was the case, in particular if the track passed through a local noon ionosphere, the PRISM values differed by more than 10 TECU and by as much as 40 TECU. The IRI-90 model, with no current ability to unseat GPS data, predicted TEC to a slightly higher error of 12 TECU. The performance of PRISM is very promising for predicting TEC and will prove useful for calibrating single frequency altimeter height measurements for ionospheric path delay. When adjusted to the GPS line-of-sight data the PRISM URSI empirical model predicted TEC over a day's period to within a global error of 8.60 TECU rms during a nighttime ionosphere and 9.74 TECU rms during the day. When adjusted to the GPS derived TEC grid, the PRISM parametrized model predicted TEC to within an error of 8.47 TECU rms for a nighttime ionosphere and 12.83 TECU rms during the day. However, the grid cannot be considered globally due to the lack of sufficient numbers of GPS stations and large latitude gaps in GPS data. It is the opinion of the authors that using the PRISM model and adjusting to the global sun-fixed TEC grid regenerated with a localized weighted interpolation offers the best possibility of meeting the 10 TECU global rms (or 2 cm at 13.6 GHz) ionosphere range correction accuracy requirement of TOPEX/Poseidon and should be the subject of further study. However, it is clear that the anticipated requirement of 34 TECU global rms for TOPEX/Poseidon Follow-On (corresponding to the TOPEX/Poseidon performance) can not be met with any realizable combination of existing models and data assimilation schemes.

Schreiner, William S.↗

Multi-source Estimates of Land / Ocean Moisture Transport Variability over the Satellite Era

It is widely appreciated that atmospheric transport of water from the world’s oceans is a process key to planetary energy balance as well as Earth's habitability. What is not yet clear is the extent of variability in moisture transports, the relative importance of interdecadal variability versus climate change signals, and importantly, our ability to quantify these changes. This work assesses variations in moisture transport variability during the satellite era (~1980 to present) by comparing several different estimates. (i) The most direct estimate is the vertically integrated flux convergence of moisture from reanalyses which use observed wind and moisture information. (ii) One alternative estimate comes from P-ET over land taken from global hydrologic models constrained with precipitation and near-surface meteorology. Here we use an ensemble of six models. An adjunct to this method is to employ satellite derive ET (e.g., GLEAM or DOLCE). (iii) Complementary to this is E-P over the global oceans derived from satellite estimates of P such as TRMM, GPM and GPCP and SeaFlux V3 or J-OFURO3 estimates of E, all relying heavily upon microwave measurements. Transport between land and oceans must essentially balance at monthly scales, i.e., vanish globally. (iv) a fourth perspective comes from estimate of terrestrial RO + storage rate, delta S. G-RUN Ensemble which uses observed streamflow and P measurements to calibrate a statistical model provides the former while GRACE, GRACE-FO provide total water storage anomalies used to calculate storage rate changes. GRACE REC uses GRACE data to train a precipitation-driven statistical model to extend storage estimates before the GRACE era. (All of these alternatives to reanalysis estimates also consider the small atmospheric column water vapor contribution.) We examine the transport changes from these three different methodologies, their relative accuracies and discuss the origin of their differences. Regional trends in moisture flux divergence and their role in multi-decadal trends are considered. Interannual variability arising in connection with ENSO variability is a dominant signal, driven largely by P changes. Trends since 1980 include reductions in moisture delivery to the western U.S., eastern Brazil, and central Africa with recovery of moisture convergence to the Sahel and parts of eastern North America.

Franklin Robertson↗

Development and Validation of a Slosh-Based Ullage Collapse Model

Ullage collapse modeling is an essential tool for the success of spacecraft powered by cryogenic propellants. The degree of ullage collapse can have a major impact on the design of cryogenic propellant tanks as well as the mission’s concept of operations. Additional commodities (e.g., helium gas for pressure control) and their quantities are dependent on the amount of heat transfer and phase change of propellants expected during flight. Currently, high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) with heat transfer and phase change is the most accurate method for predicting ullage collapse. CFD simulations of this kind, however, can become very costly for problems requiring large domains, long simulation times, or significant liquid motion. Consequently, there is a need for a reduced order model to provide fast responses which can be used in engineering design decisions. The proposed numerical model is a nodal approach, augmented by outputs from CFD analyses that are generated rapidly and reliably. These outputs include transient values for liquid-vapor interface area, interface velocity, and liquid position using a volume of fluid (VoF) method. There are several benefits of combining a nodal approach with slosh predictions from CFD simulations: leveraging of the Loci/STREAM-VoF solver that has been validated in high-g and low-g environments, rapid modeling of VoF with isothermal propellant simplifications and relatively coarse meshes, and improved model predictions from the nodal tool. The nodal approach, informed by the slosh predictions from CFD, assumes uniform conditions in the liquid and gas domains. Modifications to account for temperature stratification in the liquid and gas may be implemented as a future improvement. Thermodynamic changes within the tank are solved at user-defined timesteps. First, impacts due to mass entering or leaving the control volume are captured. Second, heat transfer impacts are accounted for by tracking the volume of the gas which has been contacted by liquid in that timestep and rebalancing the internal energy. Finally, phase change is approximated using the area and velocity of the interface. The tank conditions are re-computed by conserving mass and energy. Calibration of the model to several test flights and experiments are required to baseline the predictive power and uncertainty. The final product will enable designers and engineers to create quick-turnaround predictions for ullage collapse and inform design feasibility.

Computational Fluid Dynamics↗

Climate Predicts Geographic and Temporal Variation in Mosquito-Borne Disease Dynamics on Two Continents

Climate drives population dynamics through multiple mechanisms, which can lead to seemingly context-dependent effects of climate on natural populations. For climate-sensitive diseases such as dengue, chikungunya, and Zika, climate appears to have opposing effects in different contexts. Here we show that a model, parameterized with laboratory measured climate-driven mosquito physiology, captures three key epidemic characteristics across ecologically and culturally distinct settings in Ecuador and Kenya: the number, timing, and duration of outbreaks. The model generates a range of disease dynamics consistent with observed Aedes aegypti abundances and laboratory-confirmed arboviral incidence with variable accuracy (28–85% for vectors, 44–88%for incidence). The model predicted vector dynamics better in sites with a smaller proportion of young children in the population, lower mean temperature, and homes with piped water and made of cement. Models with limited calibration that robustly capture climate-virus relationships can help guide intervention efforts and climate change disease projections.

Climate-change ecology↗

Pulsar distances and the galactic distribution of free electrons

The present quantitative model for Galactic free electron distribution abandons the assumption of axisymmetry and explicitly incorporates spiral arms; their shapes and locations are derived from existing radio and optical observations of H II regions. The Gum Nebula's dispersion-measure contributions are also explicitly modeled. Adjustable quantities are calibrated by reference to three different types of data. The new model is estimated to furnish distance estimates to known pulsars that are accurate to about 25 percent.

Taylor, J. H.↗