SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
Advancements to DOE WPTO funded Hydropower Cybersecurity Value-at-Risk Framework application allows stakeholder to translate risk-based assessments to quantitative scores allowing to better decision making for cybersecurity investments.
In this study, we evaluate how an iterative portfolio approach compares to a more traditional capacity credit method, using the U.S. Southeast as a case study region. Using open-source planning and resource adequacy tools, we compare results using a capacity credit approximation method with those from iterating behind the two. We also explore how the iterative approach performs under a range of sensitivities, including higher load growth, regional coordination, and alternative weather years. We find that traditional capacity credit approximation methods can function well in today's system, but may face challenges for systems with higher levels of solar and storage. As such, integrating planning and resource adequacy models can address some of these gaps, helping planners deliver more reliable systems.
This presentation uses a simulation by the author in 1991 and newer developements in 2025 to illustrate strategies to address problems that arise when steady state assumption is applied in time series simulation: 1) high resolution time series data; 2) distirbution functiion; 3) machine learning. The presentation does not report new findings (previously published material is cited).
The DuraMAT Data Hub has been supporting the consortium for the past six years. The Data Hub has had success in supporting the projects, providing a platform for sharing data within projects and to the public, and learning how to better leverage the existing software platform and the available Amazon Web Services environment. During this new generation of the Data Hub, we are looking at ways to help improve the data hub architecture, user experience, and improve operations by taking advantage of new technology platforms and software that will be more impactful on the consortium researchers and the broader scientific community. In this poster we will look at the current operational capabilities, data dissemination, and development that will improve the system in the near and far future.
Between 2020 and 2025, the National Association of State Energy Officials (NASEO), together with the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners (NARUC) established and managed the Enabling Solar Cybersecurity Solutions Through State Energy Office and Public Utility Commission Engagement with Private Sector Partners project, later informally retitled and recognized as the Cybersecurity Advisory Team for State Solar (CATSS). This effort convened State Energy Offices, Public Utility Commissions, and critical private sector and federal partners to inform the development of solar cybersecurity education and action-oriented resources for states. This is the final report.
This project establishes a Cybersecurity Center for Offshore Wind Energy with the objective of designing and operating a cyber-physical testbed for wind energy farms (WEFs) that enables comprehensive cybersecurity research. The testbed incorporates a Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system connected to turbine models via industrial-grade programmable logic controllers (PLCs) and remote terminal units (RTUs). It supports side-channel data acquisition, implementation and analysis of various cyberattack scenarios, and development of attack detection, mitigation, and best-practice guidance tailored to wind energy systems. During the project, the team expanded the number and fidelity of mathematical turbine models (MTMs), integrated these models with SCADA infrastructure, and deployed a scaled physical turbine and associated sensors. High-resolution operational and side-channel data streams were collected and used to refine machine-learning (ML)-based attack detection systems and to extend the WindCRAFT framework to multi-turbine threat scenarios. The project demonstrated a realistic, scalable environment for evaluating cyber threats, validated attack detection approaches using enriched datasets, and identified new multi-turbine and inter-turbine communication attack vectors. The resulting testbed, models, and security mechanisms provide a foundation for ongoing R&D and deployment of cyber-resilient offshore wind energy systems.
The rapid growth of photovoltaic (PV) deployment has increased reliance on software platforms for monitoring, workflow automation, diagnostics, and performance analytics. As these tools play a central role in asset management and operations and maintenance (O&M), greater transparency in methodologies, data handling, and validation practices benefits the broader PV ecosystem. To better understand current practices and identify opportunities for improved clarity and interoperability, 24 software providers contributed detailed responses through the PV O&M Analytics Collaborative (PVMAC) initiative, the first structured questionnaire of its kind in the industry, covering onboarding, interoperability, data quality, diagnostics, AI/ML, and other operational categories. These providers represent over 1.1 TW of solar assets under management. The analysis shows broad adoption of digital twins, AI/ML, and API integrations, but also highlights challenges in onboarding processes, inconsistent definitions and methodologies, variability in key performance indicator (KPI) calculations, and limited independent validation. Greater standardization, clearer documentation, and stronger validation frameworks could improve transparency, comparability, and trust across PV operations software platforms.
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Wind plants operate in stochastic environments characterized by complex turbulent flow dynamics and high-dimensional random variables. A key step in uncertainty quantification studies is sensitivity analysis and dimension reduction that can facilitate the development of surrogate models to be used for forward and inverse propagation or optimization under uncertainty. Prior work has shown active subspaces are an effective tool for identifying important directions in the space of stochastic inputs; however, they have only been applied to single-fidelity wind plant models. In this study, we investigate the efficacy of a multi-fidelity active subspace method for analyzing the uncertainty in wind plant power output. The multi-fidelity active subspace estimator offers the promise of increased accuracy in identifying active subspaces as compared to a single-fidelity estimator for the same computational cost, or a reduction in cost for the same accuracy. This makes the study of uncertainty in larger wind plants and with higher fidelity physics tractable. The multi-fidelity active subspace method is applied to gridded and existing wind plant layouts with single and multiple inflow conditions and its performance for surrogate modeling and uncertainty propagation is compared against a single-fidelity active subspace method. This multi-fidelity approach yields substantial computational speedups of 2x - 3.4x across the test cases along with acceptable accuracy in surrogate modeling and computing statistical moments.
In the development of a digital twin (DT) for hydropower turbines, dynamic modeling of the system (e.g., penstock, turbine, speed control) is crucial, along with all the necessary data interface, virtualization, and dashboard designs. Since the DT must mimic the actual dynamics of the hydropower turbine accurately, adaptive learning is required to train these dynamic models online so that the models in the DT can effectively follow the representation of the actual hydropower turbine dynamics accurately and reliably. This study presents an adaptive learning method for obtaining the hydropower turbine models for DT development of hydropower systems using the recursive least squares algorithm. To simplify the formulation, the hydropower turbine under consideration was assumed to operate near a fixed operating point, where the system dynamics can be well represented by a set of linear differential equations with constant parameters. In this context, the well-known six-coefficient model for the Francis turbine was formulated as the starting point to obtain input and output models for the turbine. Then, an adaptive learning mechanism was developed to learn model parameters using real-time data from a hydropower turbine testing system. This led to semi-physical modeling, in which first principles and data-driven modeling are integrated to produce dynamic models for DT development. Applications to a pilot system at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU) were made, and the models learned adaptively using the data collected from the university’s pilot system. Desired modeling and validation results were obtained.
We present a novel flexible bi-level spatiotemporal clustering algorithm to extract events based on their intensity and spatiotemporal structures. Our algorithm consists of using (i) a novel space-time k-means clustering to obtain spatiotemporally coherent intensity clusters, and (ii) a density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN) to spatiotemporally section the intensity clusters into individual events. We discuss the development of the algorithm, the selection, tuning and meaning of the parameters within each step, as well as its validation. Finally, we apply the algorithm to a spatiotemporal drought index, standardized vapor pressure deficit drought index (SVDI), over the continental United States (US) from 1980–2021 and show that it captures historical drought events over the continental United States and their spatiotemporal extents.
Site-specific fatigue estimation is an essential part of wind turbine lifetime extension, with various methods depending on data availability. The present study compares probabilistic lifetime extension assessment results for rotor blades with and without load measurements. It also addresses two key questions in such assessments: the applicability of the Frandsen model for estimating waked turbulence under complex and mixed wake conditions and the extrapolation of mid-term data over longer time periods. The case study wind turbine is SWT-2.3-93, located at the edge of the Lillgrund wind farm, situated in the Øresund Strait between Denmark and Sweden. The turbine is extensively instrumented, with 5 years of data available from its supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system. Although the Frandsen turbulence estimates deviate in a different manner from measurements at below- and above-rated mean wind speeds, the model remains a conservative approach for fatigue load prediction and reliability. In the current case study, the site-specific assessment using strain gauge measurements yields a 33 % higher annual fatigue reliability index after 35 years compared to a scenario based on the Frandsen estimation combined with ambient environmental data and a generic aeroelastic model. The results also demonstrate that the sensitivity of fatigue reliability to load uncertainty is negligible when load measurements are used directly but relatively high when relying on the Frandsen model in combination with a generic aeroelastic model. Overall, the high variability of the lifetime extension in different scenarios of data availability and accuracy shows the importance and added value of high-quality measurements combined with wind-farm-level SCADA and a model updated in real time (digital twins).
This paper introduces the extreme theory of functional connections (X-TFC), a physics-informed machine learning algorithm, and tailors it to estimate the remaining useful life (RUL) of wind turbine gearbox bearings experiencing fatigue crack growth. Unlike purely data-driven methods, X-TFC embeds a physics model, based on Head's theory in this work, into its training objective. The core of X-TFC is a random-projection single-layer neural network trained via an extreme learning machine, which requires only limited damage progression data and solves for output weights with a least-squares optimization algorithm. A composite loss function balances the network's fit to observed degradation data against the residuals of the governing crack growth differential equation, ensuring the learned damage trajectory remains physically plausible. When applied to a vibration-based health-index (HI) dataset measured during the growth of a crack on the inner ring of a high-speed bearing in a wind turbine gearbox (Bechhoefer and Dubé, 2020), X-TFC achieves near-zero prediction bias. Even when trained on only the first 10 %–20 % of the damage progression data, with sufficient physics weighting its predictions remain monotonic and smooth, delivering high prognosability and trendability. To quantify the epistemic uncertainty, we employ a Monte Carlo ensemble of independently initialized X-TFC models trained on noise-perturbed data, which yields confidence intervals around each RUL estimate and captures both model-parameter and epistemic uncertainty. In addition to a vibration-based HI, we demonstrate that the proposed framework can be directly applied to a supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data-based HI (Eftekhari Milani et al., 2026) measured during similar wind turbine gearbox bearing crack faults, preserving its accuracy and interpretability. This extension shows the versatility of our approach, which is applicable to bearings of multiple gearbox manufacturers, models, and ratings using only SCADA data. By integrating domain knowledge with machine learning, X-TFC offers a rapid, reliable tool for crack prognostics. Its adaptability to other bearing failure modes, such as pitch bearing ring cracks, positions X-TFC as a powerful enabler of data-driven, physics-informed asset management in the wind energy sector and beyond.
Abstract. Wind plant wake impacts can be estimated with a number of simulation methodologies, each with its own fidelity and sensitivity to model inputs. In turbine-free mesoscale simulations, hub-height wind speeds often significantly vary with the choice of a planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme. However, the sensitivity of wind plant wakes to a PBL scheme has not been explored because, as of the Weather Research and Forecasting model v4.3.3, wake parameterizations were only compatible with one PBL scheme. We couple the Fitch wind farm parameterization with the new NCAR 3DPBL scheme and compare the resulting wakes to those simulated with a widely used PBL scheme. We simulate a wind plant in pseudo-steady states under idealized stable, neutral, and unstable conditions with matching hub-height wind speeds using two PBL schemes: MYNN and the NCAR 3DPBL. For these idealized scenarios, average hub-height wind speed losses within the plant differ between PBL schemes by between −0.20 and 0.22 m s−1, and correspondingly, capacity factors range between 39.5 %–53.8 %. These simulations suggest that PBL schemes represent a meaningful source of modeled wind resource uncertainty; therefore, we recommend incorporating PBL variability into future wind plant planning sensitivity studies as well as wind forecasting studies.
Abstract. Terrain-induced flow phenomena modulate wind turbine performance and wake behavior in ways that are not adequately accounted for in typical wind turbine wake and wind plant design models. In this work, we simulate flow over two parallel ridges with a wind turbine on one of the ridges, focusing on conditions observed during the Perdigão field campaign in 2017. Two case studies are selected to be representative of typical flow conditions at the site, including the effects of atmospheric stability: a stable case where a mountain wave occurs (as in ∼ 50 % of the nights observed) and a convective case where a recirculation zone forms in the lee of the ridge with the turbine (as occurred over 50 % of the time with upstream winds normal to the ridgeline). We use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF), dynamically downscaled from the mesoscale (6.75 km resolution) to microscale large-eddy simulation (LES) at 10 m resolution, where a generalized actuator disk (GAD) wind turbine parameterization is used to simulate turbine wakes. We compare the WRF–LES–GAD model results to data from meteorological towers, lidars, and a tethered lifting system, showing good qualitative and quantitative agreement for both case studies. Significantly, the wind turbine wake shows different amounts of vertical deflection from the terrain and persistence downstream in the two stability regimes. In the stable case, the wake follows the terrain along with the mountain wave and deflects downwards by nearly 100 m below hub height at four rotor diameters downstream. In the convective case, the wake deflects above the recirculation zone over 40 m above hub height at the same downstream distance. Overall, the WRF–LES–GAD model is able to capture the observed behavior of the wind turbine wakes, demonstrating the model's ability to represent wakes over complex terrain for two distinct and representative atmospheric stability classes, and, potentially, to improve wind turbine siting and operation in hilly landscapes.
The availability of large amounts of data is starting to impact how the wind energy community works. From turbine design to plant layout, construction, commissioning, and maintenance and operations, new processes and business models are springing up. This is the process of digitalisation, and it promises improved efficiency and greater insight, ultimately leading to increased energy capture and significant savings for wind plant operators, thus reducing the levelised cost of energy. Digitalisation is also impacting research, where it is both easing and speeding up collaboration, as well as making research results more accessible. This is the basis for innovations that can be taken up by end users. But digitalisation faces barriers. This paper uses a literature survey and the results from an expert elicitation to identify three common industry-wide barriers to the digitalisation of wind energy. Comparison with other networked industries and past and ongoing initiatives to foster digitalisation show that these barriers can only be overcome by wide-reaching strategic efforts, and so we see these as “grand challenges” in the digitalisation of wind energy. They are, first, creating FAIR data frameworks; secondly, connecting people and data to foster innovation; and finally, enabling collaboration and competition between organisations. The grand challenges in the digitalisation of wind energy thus include a mix of technical, cultural, and business aspects that will need collaboration between businesses, academia, and government to solve. Working to mitigate them is the beginning of a dynamic process that will position wind energy as an essential part of a global clean energy future.
Abstract. This paper provides a summary of the work done within Phase IV of the Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration, Continued with Correlation and unCertainty (OC6) project, under International Energy Agency Wind Technology Collaboration Programme Task 30. This phase focused on validating the loading on and motion of a novel floating offshore wind system. Numerical models of a 3.6 MW horizontal-axis wind turbine atop the TetraSpar floating support structure were compared using measurement data from a 1:43-Froude-scale test performed in the University of Maine's Alfond Wind–Wave (W2) Ocean Engineering Laboratory. Participants in the project ran a series of simulations, including system equilibrium, surge offsets, free-decay tests, wind-only conditions, wave-only conditions, and a combination of wind and wave conditions. Validation of the models was performed by comparing the aerodynamic loading, floating support structure motion, tower base loading, mooring line tensions, and keel line tensions. The results show a relatively good estimation of the aerodynamic loading and a reasonable estimation of the platform motion and tower base fore–aft bending moment. However, there is a significant dispersion in the dynamic loading for the upwind mooring line. Very good agreement was observed between most of the numerical models and the experiment for the keel line tensions.
Abstract. This article presents a validation study of the popular aeroservoelastic code suite OpenFAST leveraging weeks of measurements obtained during normal operation of a 2.8 MW land-based wind turbine. Measured wind conditions were used to generate one-to-one turbulent flow fields (i.e., comparing simulation to measurement in 10 min increments, or bins) through unconstrained and constrained assimilation methods using the kinematic turbulence generators TurbSim and PyConTurb. A total of 253 bins of 10 min of normal turbine operation were selected for analysis, and a statistical comparison in terms of performance and loads is presented. We show that successful validation of the model was not strongly dependent on the type of inflow assimilation method used for mean quantities of interest, which had median modeling errors per wind-speed interval generally within 5 %–10 % of the measurement. The type of inflow assimilation method did have a larger effect on the fatigue predictions for blade-root flapwise and tower-base fore–aft quantities, which surprisingly saw larger errors from the assumed higher-fidelity assimilation methods. Avenues for further work are discussed and include possible improvements to the aerodynamic, structural, and controller modeling that may offer insight on the origin of the up to ∼ 40 % median overprediction of fatigue for these quantities.