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At least 505 records · Page 28

The high-excitation planetary nebulae: NGC 3918 and IC 2448

International Ultraviolet Exploration observations of NGC 3918 and IC 2448 are presented. Combining these observations with data in the optical range and computed model structure, the chemical composition for these objects is derived. For NGC 3918 log C = -3.02, log N = -3.61 and log 0 = -3.22; while for IC 2448 log C = -3.44, log N = -81 and log 0 = 3.54.

Torres-Peimbert, S.↗

The (C III lambda 1909/Si III lambda 1892) ratio as a diagnostic for planetary nebulae and symbiotic stars

Suitable IUE archival material on planetary nebulae has been examined to determine the log R /F(lambda 1909 C III)/F(lambda 1892 Si III)/ as a discriminant for distinguishing planetary nebulae from symbiotic stars and related objects. The mean value of log R for 73 galactic planetaries is 1.4, while that of extragalactic planetaries appears to be slightly lower, and that for symbiotics is 0.3. The lower value of log R for symbiotics is easily understood as a consequence of their higher densities. A plot of log R versus N-epsilon indicates that 80 percent of the planetaries fall into the range of log R between 1.2 and 1.8, but some of the 'peculiar' and bipolar nebulae fall below log R = 1.2. The corresponding N(C++)/N(Si++) ionic ratio varies over a large range.

Feibelman, Walter A.↗

Interpretation of gamma-ray burst source count statistics

Ever since the discovery of gamma-ray bursts, the so-called log N-log S relation has been used for determination of their distances and distribution. This task has not been straightforward because of varying thresholds for the detection of bursts. Most of the current analyses of these data are couched in terms of ambiguous distributions, such as the distribution of Cp/Clim, the ratio of peak to threshold photon count rates, or the distribution of V/Vmax = (Cp/Clim) exp -3/2. It is shown that these distributions are not always a true reflection of the log N-log S relation. Some kind of deconvolution is required for obtaining the true log N-log S. Therefore, care is required in the interpretation of results of such analyses. A new method of analysis of these data is described, whereby the bivariate distribution of Cp and Clim is obtained directly from the data.

Petrosian, Vahe↗

On the Rapid Computation of Various Polylogarithmic Constants

We give algorithms for the computation of the d-th digit of certain transcendental numbers in various bases. These algorithms can be easily implemented (multiple precision arithmetic is not needed), require virtually no memory, and feature run times that scale nearly linearly with the order of the digit desired. They make it feasible to compute, for example, the billionth binary digit of log(2) or pi on a modest workstation in a few hours run time. We demonstrate this technique by computing the ten billionth hexadecimal digit of pi, the billionth hexadecimal digits of pi-squared, log(2) and log-squared(2), and the ten billionth decimal digit of log(9/10). These calculations rest on the observation that very special types of identities exist for certain numbers like pi, pi-squared, log(2) and log-squared(2). These are essentially polylogarithmic ladders in an integer base. A number of these identities that we derive in this work appear to be new, for example a critical identity for pi.

Bailey, David H.↗

Properties of the Chandra Sources in M81

The Chandra X-ray Observatory obtained a 50-ks observation of the central region of M81 using the ACIS-S in imaging mode. The global properties of the 97 x-ray sources detected in the inner 8'.3 x 8'.3 field of M81 are examined. Roughly half the sources are concentrated within the central bulge. The remainder are distributed throughout the disk with the brightest disk sources lying preferentially along spiral arms. The average hardness ratios of both bulge and disk sources are consistent with power law spectra of index F approximates 1.6 indicative of a population of x-ray binaries. A group of much softer sources are also present. The background source- subtracted log(N)-log(S) distribution of the disk follows a power law of index about -0.5 with no change in slope over three decades in flux. The log(N)-log(S) distribution of the bulge follows a similar shape but with a steeper slope above about 4 x 10(exp 37) ergs/s. There is unresolved x-ray flux from the bulge with a radial profile similar to that of the bulge sources. This unresolved flux is softer than the average of the bulge sources and extrapolating the bulge log(N)-log(S) distribution towards weaker sources can only account for 20% of the unresolved flux. No strong time variability was observed for any source with the exception of one bright, soft source.

Tennant, Allyn F.↗

Properties of the Chandra Sources in M81

The Chandra X-Ray Observatory obtained a 50 ks observation of the central region of M81 using the ACIS-S in imaging mode. The global properties of the 97 X-ray sources detected in the inner 8.3' x 8.3' field of M81 are examined. Roughly half the sources are concentrated within the central bulge. The remainder are distributed throughout the disk, with the brightest disk sources lying preferentially along spiral arms. The average hardness ratios of both bulge and disk sources are consistent with power-law spectra of index Gamma equals approximately 1.6, indicative of a population of X-ray binaries. A group of much softer sources is also present. The background-source-subtracted log N-log S distribution of the disk follows a power law of index approximately -0.5 with no change in slope over three decades in flux. The log N-log S distribution of the bulge follows a similar shape but with a steeper slope above approximately 4 x 10(exp 37) ergs/s. There is unresolved X-ray flux from the bulge with a radial profile similar to that of the bulge sources. This unresolved flux is softer than the average of the bulge sources, and extrapolating the bulge log N-log S distribution toward weaker sources can account for only 20% of the unresolved flux. No strong time variability was observed for any source with the exception of one bright, soft source.

Tennant, Allyn F.↗

Coronal Heating and the Increase of Coronal Luminosity with Magnetic Flux

We present the observed scaling of coronal luminosity with magnetic flux in a set of quiet regions. Comparison of this with the observed scaling found for active regions suggests an underlying difference between coronal heating in active regions and quiet regions. From SOHO/EIT coronal images and SOHO/MDI magnetograms of four similar large quiet regions, we measure L(sub corona) and Phi(sub total) in random subregions ranging in area from about four supergranules [(70,000 km)(exp 2)] to about 100 supergranules [(0.5 R(sub sun))(exp 2)], where L(sub corona) is the luminosity of the corona in a subregion and Phi(sub total) is the flux content of the magnetic network in the subregion. This sampling of our quiet regions yields a correlation plot of Log L(sub corona) vs Log Phi(sub total) appropriate for comparison with the corresponding plot for active regions. For our quiet regions, the mean values of L(sub corona) and Phi(sub total) both increase linearly with area (simply because each set of subregions of the same area has very nearly the same mean coronal luminosity per unit area and mean magnetic flux per unit area), and in each constant-area set the values of L(sub corona) and Phi(sub total) 'scatter' about their means for that area. This results in the linear least-squares fit to the Log ((L (sub corona)), vs Log ((Phi (sub total)) plot having a slope somewhat less than one. If active regions mimicked our quiet regions in that all large sets of same-area active regions had the same mean coronal luminosity per unit area and same mean magnetic flux per unit area, then the least-squares fit to their Log((L (sub corona)) vs Log((Phi (sub total)) plot would also have a slope of less than one. Instead, the slope for active regions is 1.2. Given the observed factor of three scatter about the least-squares linear fit, this slope is consistent with Phi(sub total) on average increasing linearly with area (A) as in quiet regions, but L(sub corona) on average increasing as the volume (A(exp 1.5)) of the active region instead of as the area. This possibility is reasonable if the heating in active regions is a burning down of previously-stored coronal magnetic energy rather than a steady dissipation of energy flux from below as expected in quiet regions.

Moore, R. L.↗

Rest-Frame UV and Optical Emission Line Diagnostics of Ionized Gas Properties: a Test Case in a Star-Forming Knot of a Lensed Galaxy at Z ∼ 1.7

We examine the diagnostic power of rest-frame ultraviolet (UV) nebular emission lines, and compare them to more commonly used rest-frame optical emission lines, using the test case of a single star-forming knot of the bright lensed galaxy RCSGA 032727–132609 at redshift z ∼ 1.7. This galaxy has complete coverage of all the major rest-frame UV and optical emission lines from Magellan/MagE and Keck/NIRSPEC. Using the full suite of diagnostic lines, we infer the physical properties: nebular electron temperature (T(sub e)), electron density (n(sub e)), oxygen abundance (log (O/H), ionization parameter [log (q), and interstellar medium (ISM) pressure (log (P/k)]. We examine the effectiveness of the different UV, optical, and joint UV–optical spectra in constraining the physical conditions. Using UV lines alone we can reliably estimate log (q), but the same is difficult for log (O/H). UV lines yield a higher (∼1.5 dex) log (P/k) than the optical lines, as the former probes a further inner nebular region than the latter. For this comparison, we extend the existing Bayesian inference code IZI, adding to it the capability to infer ISM pressure simultaneously with metallicity and ionization parameter. This work anticipates future rest-frame UV spectral data sets from the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) at high redshift and from the Extremely Large Telescope (ELT) at moderate redshift.

Acharyya, Ayan↗

Automated Behavior Analysis of Malware: A Case Study of WannaCry Ransomware

Ransomware, a class of self-propagating malware that uses encryption to hold the victims’ data ransom, has emerged in recent years as one of the most dangerous cyber threats, with widespread damage; e.g., zero-day ransomware WannaCry has caused world-wide catastrophe, from knocking U.K. National Health Service hospitals offline to shutting down a Honda Motor Company in Japan [1]. Our close collaboration with security operations of large enterprises reveals that defense against ransomware relies on tedious analysis from high-volume systems logs of the first few infections. Sandbox analysis of freshly captured malware is also commonplace in operation. We introduce a method to identify and rank the most discriminating ransomware features from a set of ambient (non-attack) system logs and at least one log stream containing both ambient and ransomware behavior. These ranked features reveal a set of malware actions that are produced automatically from system logs, and can help automate tedious manual analysis. We test our approach using WannaCry and two polymorphic samples by producing logs with Cuckoo Sandbox during both ambient, and ambient plus ransomware executions. Our goal is to extract the features of the malware from the logs with only knowledge that malware was present. We compare outputs with a detailed analysis of WannaCry allowing validation of the algorithm’s feature extraction and provide analysis of the method’s robustness to variations of input data—changing quality/quantity of ambient data and testing polymorphic ransomware. Most notably, our patterns are accurate and unwavering when generated from polymorphic WannaCry copies, on which 63 (of 63 tested) antivirus (AV) products fail.

Chen, Qian↗

Recurrent Neural Network Language Models for Open Vocabulary Event-Level Cyber Anomaly Detection

Automated analysis methods are crucial aids for monitoring and defending a network to protect the sensitive or confidential data it hosts. This work introduces a flexible, powerful, and unsupervised approach to detecting anomalous behavior in computer and network logs; one that largely eliminates domain-dependent feature engineering employed by existing methods. By treating system logs as threads of interleaved ``sentences'' (event log lines) to train online unsupervised neural network language models, our approach provides an adaptive model of normal network behavior. We compare the effectiveness of both standard and bidirectional recurrent neural network language models at detecting malicious activity within network log data. Extending these models, we introduce a tiered recurrent architecture, which provides context by modeling sequences of users' actions over time. Compared to isolation forests and Principal Components Analysis (PCA), two popular anomaly detection algorithms, we observe superior performance on the Los Alamos National Laboratory Cyber Security dataset. For log-line-level predictions, our best performing character-based model provides test set anomaly scores ranking red team events in the 98th percentile on average, and yields 0.97 area under the receiver operator characteristic curve, demonstrating the strong fine-grained anomaly detection performance of this approach on open vocabulary logging sources.

Cyber Analysis, Deep Learning, language analysis, ↗

Analysis and Integration of the Hydraulic Fracturing Test Site-2 (HFTS-2) Comprehensive Dataset

Hydraulic Fracturing Test Site-2 (HFTS-2) is a field-based research experiment performed in the Permian (Delaware) Basin. The unique aspect of this program was the acquisition of a unique, comprehensive, diagnostic dataset. Additionally, shorter parent wells drilled three years before the child wells offered clear distinction between the stages influenced by parent-child effects and the stages without any effects. The goal of this study was to analyze and integrate this comprehensive diagnostic dataset to understand the areal and vertical extent of hydraulic fractures (HF). The paper also provides insights on the effects of parent wells’ depletion on child well HF geometry based on various monitoring methods and subsurface models. Areal and vertical coverage for all HFTS-2 wells during stimulation and depletion was estimated based on analysis and interpretation of diagnostics and advanced modeling results. HFTS-2 diagnostics included microseismic (MS), pre- and post-stimulation logs and cores, bottomhole gauges, and fiber optic (FO) data. The diagnostics results (MS, FO, image logs) were integrated and used to calibrate subsurface models. Additional field tests were designed and implemented for depletion monitoring. The tailored program for monitoring depletion included vertical and slant well pressures, interference testing, and a vertical strain depletion trial. Areal Coverage: Conventional MS (and FO MS) were used to compute HF dimensions, which were compared with diagnostics (FO strain, gauge, image logs) observations and calibrated subsurface models. A post-production interference test did not show offset well communication. Vertical Coverage: Vertical coverage during stimulation was monitored using a vertical monitoring well. The stronger mechanical strain signals showed good correlation with MS event intensities, geomechanical properties, and gauge inferences. Vertical depletion was estimated based on vertical/slant well gauges and strain depletion tests. Parent-Child Effects: Diagnostics and calibrated subsurface models show asymmetry in child well fracture geometries for stages that overlap parent wells. Child well image logs serve as a good indicator for parent Downloaded from http://onepetro.org/URTECONF/proceedings-pdf/21URTC/2-21URTC/D021S031R004/2477423/urtec-2021-5241-ms.pdf/1 by Carol Worster on 28 February 2022 URTeC 5241 well HF tracking. Child well MS events had an eastward bias, in line with pre-stimulation image logs, and was confirmed by parent well frac hits. Novel/Additive Information: The dataset presents a unique, over-constrained problem space to compare independent techniques to arrive at HF metrics (i.e., stimulation height and/or half-length), unlike a single source dataset, in which calibration is done using available data to guide predictions. Here, the asymmetry in HF geometry seen in the stages influenced by parent-child effects offers unique insights into well spacing and landing, which are key capital decisions the unconventional resources industry is seeking to optimize.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Sustained Benefit at 2 Years for Covered Stents Versus Bare-Metal Stents in Long SFA Lesions: The VIASTAR Trial

PurposeThe hypothesis that covered stents are superior to bare-metal stents (BMS) in long femoropopliteal artery disease was tested. The one-year results of the VIASTAR trial revealed a patency benefit of covered stents in the treatment-per-protocol (TPP) analysis only.MethodsA prospective, randomized, single-blind, multicenter study evaluated 141 patients with symptomatic peripheral arterial disease (PAD) after treatment with heparin-bonded covered stents (VIABAHN{sup ®} Endoprosthesis) or BMS. Clinical outcomes and patency rates were assessed at 1, 6, 12, and 24 months. Mean lesion length was 19.0 ± 6.3 cm in the VIABAHN{sup ®} versus 17.3 ± 6.6 cm in the BMS group.ResultsThe 24-month primary patency rates in the VIABAHN{sup ®} and BMS group were: intention-to-treat 63.1 (95 % CI 0.52–0.76) versus 41.2 % (95 % CI 0.29–0.57; log rank p = 0.04) and TPP 69.4 (95 % CI 0.58–0.83) versus 40.0 % (95 % CI 0.28–0.56; log rank p = 0.004). Freedom from target-lesion-revascularization (TLR) was 79.4 (95 % CI 0.70–0.90) versus 73.0 % (95 % CI 0.63–0.85) for VIABAHN{sup ®} versus BMS (log rank p = 0.37). For the TPP group in lesions ≥20 cm, the 24-month patency rates were 65.2 (95 % CI 0.50–0.85) versus 26.7 % (95 % CI 0.12–0.59; log rank p = 0.004) for VIABAHN{sup ®} versus BMS, and freedom from TLR was 80.0 (95 % CI 0.68–0.94) versus 61.9 % (95 % CI 0.44–0.87; log rank p = 0.13). The ankle brachial index was 0.89 ± 0.18 versus 0.91 ± 0.17 (p = 0.76) at 24-month in the VIABAHN{sup ®} versus the BMS group, respectively.ConclusionAt 24-month, this trial in PAD patients with long femoropopliteal lesions demonstrated a significantly improved primary patency rate for heparin-bonded covered stents compared to BMS, however, without a significant impact on clinical outcomes and TLR rate (Reg. Nr. ISRCTN48164244)

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Optimization of stepwise clustering algorithm in backward trajectory analysis

In recent years, the backward trajectory model has been widely used in the research of meteorological and atmospheric environmental quality. This paper presents a comprehensive study on a stepwise clustering analysis algorithm in the clustering process of backward trajectory model and an application of the clustering analysis of single-particle backward trajectory in 2016 in Changchun City. This study starts with an analysis of the original stepwise clustering algorithm and its application to a clustering process of 8784 backward trajectories during 48 h in Changchun City as a benchmark test case. Then, two improvements are made in the algorithm: First, in the process of finding the optimal classification, the algorithm complexity is improved from original O(n 3 ) to O(log(n)*n 2 ) through algorithm improvement. The algorithm performance is enhanced by log(n) times. Next, in the process of re-establishing the classification, the algorithm complexity is improved from the original O(m*n 2 ) to O(m*log(n)*n), that is another algorithm performance improvement by a factor of log(n). Therefore, the accumulative execution efficiency improvement through the algorithm optimization is 2*log(n) times, which has been further verified in the practical application in Changchun City.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Addressing wellbore integrity and thief zone permeability using microbially-induced calcium carbonate precipitation (MICP): A field demonstration

Microbially-induced calcium carbonate precipitation (MICP) is an emerging biotechnology for wellbore integrity applications including sealing defects in wellbore cement and modifying the permeability of rock formations. The goal of this field demonstration was to characterize a failed waterflood injection well and provide proof of principle that MICP can reduce permeability in the presence of oil using conventional oilfield fluid delivery methods. Here we compared well logs performed at the time the well was drilled with ultrasonic logs, sonic cement evaluation, and temperature logs conducted after the well failed. Analysis of these logs suggested that, rather than entering the target waterflood formation, injectate was traveling through defects in the well cement to a higher permeability sandstone layer above the target formation. Sporosarcina pasteurii cultures and urea-calcium media were delivered 2290 ft (698 m) below ground surface using a 3.75 gal (14.2 L) slickline dump bailer to promote mineralization in the undesired flow paths. By Day 6 and after 25 inoculum and 49 calcium media injections, the injectivity [gpm/psi] had decreased by approximately 70%. This demonstration shows that 1) common well logs can be used to identify scenarios where MICP can be employed to reduce system permeability, remediate leakage pathways, and improve waterflood efficiency, and 2) MICP can occur in the presence of hydrocarbons.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Fast pseudorandom quantum state generators via inflationary quantum gates

Abstract We propose a mechanism for reaching pseudorandom quantum states, computationally indistinguishable from Haar random, with shallow log-ndepth quantum circuits, wherenis the number of qudits. We argue that$$\log n$$ log n depth 2-qubit-gate-based generic random quantum circuits that are claimed to provide a lower bound on the speed of information scrambling, cannot produce computationally pseudorandom quantum states. This conclusion is connected with the presence of polynomial (inn) tails in the stay probability of short Pauli strings that survive evolution through such shallow circuits. We show, however, that stay-probability-tails can be eliminated and pseudorandom quantum states can be accomplished with shallow$$\log n$$ log n depth circuits built from a special universal family of “inflationary” quantum (IQ) gates. We prove that IQ-gates cannot be implemented with 2-qubit gates, but can be realized either as a subset of 2-qudit-gates inU(d 2 ) withd ≥ 3 anddprime, or as special 3-qubit gates.

Physics↗

The distribution of satellites around massive galaxies at 1 < z < 3 in ZFOURGE/CANDELS: Dependence on star formation activity

We study the statistical distribution of satellites around star-forming and quiescent central galaxies at 1 < z < 3 using imaging from the FourStar Galaxy Evolution Survey and the Cosmic Assembly Near-IR Deep Extragalactic Legacy Survey. The deep near-IR data select satellites down to log (M/M {sub ☉}) > 9 at z < 3. The radial satellite distribution around centrals is consistent with a projected Navarro-Frenk-White profile. Massive quiescent centrals, log (M/M {sub ☉}) > 10.78, have ∼2 times the number of satellites compared to star-forming centrals with a significance of 2.7σ even after accounting for differences in the centrals' stellar-mass distributions. We find no statistical difference in the satellite distributions of intermediate-mass quiescent and star-forming centrals, 10.48 < log (M/M {sub ☉}) < 10.78. Compared to the Guo et al. semi-analytic model, the excess number of satellites indicates that quiescent centrals have halo masses 0.3 dex larger than star-forming centrals, even when the stellar-mass distributions are fixed. We use a simple toy model that relates halo mass and quenching, which roughly reproduces the observed quenched fractions and the differences in halo mass between star-forming and quenched galaxies only if galaxies have a quenching probability that increases with halo mass from ∼0 for log (M{sub h} /M {sub ☉}) ∼ 11 to ∼1 for log (M{sub h} /M {sub ☉}) ∼ 13.5. A single halo-mass quenching threshold is unable to reproduce the quiescent fraction and satellite distribution of centrals. Therefore, while halo quenching may be an important mechanism, it is unlikely to be the only factor driving quenching. It remains unclear why a high fraction of centrals remain star-forming even in relatively massive halos.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A critical assessment of stellar mass measurement methods

This is the second paper in a series aimed at investigating the main sources of uncertainty in measuring the observable parameters in galaxies from their spectral energy distributions (SEDs). In the first paper we presented a detailed account of the photometric redshift measurements and an error analysis of this process. In this paper we perform a comprehensive study of the main sources of random and systematic error in stellar mass estimates for galaxies, and their relative contributions to the associated error budget. Since there is no prior knowledge of the stellar mass of galaxies (unlike their photometric redshifts), we use mock galaxy catalogs with simulated multi-waveband photometry and known redshift, stellar mass, age and extinction for individual galaxies. The multi-waveband photometry for the simulated galaxies were generated in 13 filters spanning from U-band to mid-infrared wavelengths. Given different parameters affecting stellar mass measurement (photometric signal-to-noise ratios (S/N), SED fitting errors and systematic effects), the inherent degeneracies and correlated errors, we formulated different simulated galaxy catalogs to quantify these effects individually. For comparison, we also generated catalogs based on observed photometric data of real galaxies in the Great Observatories Origins Deep Survey-South field, spanning the same passbands. The simulated and observed catalogs were provided to a number of teams within the Cosmic Assembly Near-infrared Deep Extragalactic Legacy Survey collaboration to estimate the stellar masses for individual galaxies. A total of 11 teams participated, with different combinations of stellar mass measurement codes/methods, population synthesis models, star formation histories, extinction and age. For each simulated galaxy, the differences between the input stellar masses, M{sub input}, and those estimated by each team, M{sub est}, is defined as Δlog(M)≡log(M{sub estimated})−log(M{sub input}), and used to identify the most fundamental parameters affecting stellar mass estimate in galaxies, with the following results. (1) No significant bias in Δ log(M) was found among different codes, with all having comparable scatter (σ(Δlog(M))=0.136 dex). The estimated stellar mass values are seriously affected by low photometric S/N, with the rms scatter increasing for galaxies with H{sub AB}>26 mag; (2) A source of error contributing to the scatter in Δ log(M) is found to be due to photometric uncertainties (0.136 dex) and low resolution in age and extinction grids when generating the SED templates; (3) The median of stellar masses among different methods provides a stable measure of the mass associated with any given galaxy (σ(Δlog(M))=0.142 dex); (4) The Δ log(M) values are strongly correlated with deviations in age (defined as the difference between the estimated and expected values), with a weaker correlation with extinction; (5) The rms scatter in the estimated stellar masses due to free parameters (after fixing redshifts and initial mass function) are quantified and found to be σ(Δlog(M))=0.110 dex; (6) Using the observed data, we studied the sensitivity of stellar masses to both the population synthesis codes and inclusion of nebular emission lines and found them to affect the stellar mass by 0.2 and 0.3 dex respectively.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Thermal stress in degraded forests in the Brazilian Amazon Arc of Deforestation

Understanding thermal stress in tropical forests has taken on new urgency in light of accelerating climate change and expansion of deforestation and forest degradation. Degraded tropical forests in particular may be approaching critical temperature thresholds even more rapidly than intact forests, with implications for tree survival and ecosystem recovery. We investigate thermal stress in degraded tropical forests within the Brazilian Amazon Arc of Deforestation. Using land surface temperature data from the ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on the international Space Station (ECOSTRESS), we compared canopy temperatures of intact, selectively logged, and burned forests in Feliz Natal, Mato Grosso, Brazil. Upper canopy temperatures in previously burned forests were 4.1% higher (mean = 36.5 °C) and 50.9% more variable compared to intact and logged forests, which showed remarkably similar temperature distributions (means of 34.9 °C and 35.1 °C, respectively). Modeled leaf temperature distributions based on canopy temperature measurements from one of the warmest days in a 2 year dry season record indicated that 87% of leaves in the warmest burned forest patches exceeded the temperature threshold where respiration surpasses photosynthesis, compared to approximately 72%–74% in intact and logged forests, respectively, in the same time period. After controlling for environmental factors, burned forests were predicted to be 2.6 °C warmer on average [1.39 °C–3.96 °C, 95% credible interval] than intact forests across a 5–40 m canopy height range. Burned forests showed modest thermal recovery over time, with temperatures decreasing by approximately 1.2 °C over a 30 year recovery period. In contrast, logged forests showed minimal thermal differences from intact forests (−0.353 on average, [−1.125–0.274, 95% credible interval]) and negligible change (0.15 °C) over the same timeframe. While the absolute probabilities of exceeding damaging thermal thresholds remain low across all forest types under current climate conditions, the probability of leaves exceeding temperatures that cause permanent leaf damage was ten times higher in burned forests, with implications for the future of burned forest regeneration in water-limited regions of the Amazon basin. In particular, the combination of higher mean temperatures, greater temperature variability, and more frequent exposure to damaging thermal thresholds implies that burned tropical forests will experience substantially higher mortality rates and slower biomass recovery compared to intact and selectively logged forests, especially in water-limited regions where trees cannot rely on evaporative cooling to moderate canopy temperatures.

Brazilian Amazon Arc of Deforestation↗