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DOE OSTI2022

Leading Edge Erosion Classification System

The leading edge erosion of wind turbine blades is a common issue that can have a range of implications for the operation and maintenance of the turbine. A variety of methods have attempted to determine the severity of erosion damage, applied in different academic, testing and in-situ settings. This paper describes the current state of the art in categorization, and the individual drivers in assessment. From this foundation, the IEA Wind Task 46 WP3 group collated key considerations from the process of categorizing erosion damage and a proposed erosion classification system was put forward. Trial assessments were performed using the initial system, which led to adjustments to the original proposition. The refined system defines discrete severity levels that concern the wind turbine blade: (1) Visual Condition (concerning blades with/without leading edge protection); (2) Mass Loss; (3) Aerodynamic Performance; and (4) Structural Integrity. The classification system presented is not intended to be a fixed entity. The Task 46 group has already identified specific challenges and opportunities that are applicable to individual use and the overall wind energy industry. The intention is for the system to evolve as improvements are identified, technology improves, and work progresses through other Task 46 activities. Several considerations and recommendations are discussed that could be applicable for future implementation of the system.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Building-Level Comparison of Microsoft and Google Open Building Footprints Datasets

Large-scale datasets of building footprints are a crucial source of information for a variety of efforts. In 2023, the general public benefits from open access to multiple sources of building footprints at the country scale or larger, such as those produced by Microsoft and Google. However, none of the available datasets have attained complete global coverage, and researchers and analysts may need to combine multiple sources to assemble a complete set of building footprints for their area of interest or choose between overlapping sources, requiring an understanding of the differences between different building sources. This paper presents a method to closely examine the quality of different building footprint sources by matching corresponding buildings across datasets, using building footprints in Ethiopia published by Microsoft and Google as an example set.

Gonzales, Jack↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Regularized Variance-Reduced Modified Extragradient Method for Stochastic Hierarchical Games

We consider an N -player hierarchical game in which the i th player’s objective comprises of an expectation-valued term, parametrized by rival decisions, and a hierarchical term. Such a framework allows for capturing a broad range of stochastic hierarchical optimization problems, Stackelberg equilibrium problems, and leader-follower games. We develop an iteratively regularized and smoothed variance-reduced modified extragradient framework for iteratively approaching hierarchical equilibria in a stochastic setting. We equip our analysis with rate statements, complexity guarantees, and almost-sure convergence results. We then extend these statements to settings where the lower-level problem is solved inexactly and provide the corresponding rate and complexity statements. Our model framework encompasses many game theoretic equilibrium problems studied in the context of power markets. We present a realistic application to the study of virtual power plants, emphasizing the role of hierarchical decision making and regularization. Preliminary numerics suggest that empirical behavior compares well with theoretical guarantees.

Tikhonov regularization↗

DOE OSTI2022

INITIAL STUDIES OF CAVITY FAULT PREDICTION AT JEFFERSON LABORATORY

The Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF) at Jefferson Laboratory is a CW recirculating linac that utilizes over 400 superconducting radio-frequency (SRF) cavities to accelerate electrons up to 12 GeV through 5-passes. Recent work has shown that, given RF signals from a cavity during a fault as input, machine learning approaches can accurately classify the fault type. In this paper we report on initial results of predicting a fault onset using only data prior to the failure event. A data set was constructed using time-series data immediately before a fault (’unstable’) and 1.5 seconds prior to a fault (’stable’) gathered from over 5,000 saved fault events. The data was used to train a binary classifier. The results gave key insights into the behavior of several fault types and provided motivation to investigate whether data prior to a failure event could also predict the type of fault. We discuss our method using a sliding window approach and report on initial results. Recent modifications to the low-level RF control system will provide access to streaming signals and we outline a path forward for leveraging deep learning on streaming data

Vidyaratne, Lasitha↗

DOE OSTI2020

Radar Derived Rainfall and Rain Gauge Measurements at SRS

Over the years rainfall data for the Savannah River Site has been obtained from ground level measurements made by rain gauges. These instruments have inherent errors or biases that can impact the measured rainfall totals but are assumed as ground truth for most climatological and weather applications. With the development of weather radar technologies, various methods to derive rainfall totals from radar reflectivity values have been developed and have continued to improve. The Z-R relationship, which uses an exponential relationship to estimate rainfall rate based on radar reflectivity values, provides estimates of rainfall amounts (Z-R Level III) for locations within the radar’s detection range. The recently developed Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) dataset combines reflectivity-based estimates using the Z-R relationship with a network of gauges and other rainfall estimates to produce a refined set of precipitation estimates for each grid point within its domain. Comparisons were done between gauge observations and radar estimates for various SRS locations to assess whether radar derived estimates are representative of rainfall measurements at the site. Results obtained show good agreement between radar derived amounts and ground measurements, with MRMS showing stronger correlations and lower spread than Z-R Level III estimates. Outliers and errors observed appear to be related to hydrometeor classification schemes. In general, MRMS proved to provide sufficiently representative estimates of daily rainfall amounts to replace existing SRS rain gauge measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

INITIAL STUDIES OF CAVITY FAULT PREDICTION AT JEFFERSON LABORATORY

Vidyaratne, Lasitha↗

DOE OSTI2021

Data compression system using base values and methods thereof

In some embodiments, a memory controller in a processor includes a base value cache, a compressor, and a metadata cache. The compressor is coupled to the base value cache and the metadata cache. The compressor compresses a data block using at least a base value and delta values. The compressor determines whether the size of the data block exceeds a data block threshold value. Based on the determination of whether the size of the compressed data block generated by the compressor exceeds the data block threshold value, the memory controller transfers only a set of the compressed delta values to memory for storage. A decompressor located in the lower level cache of the processor decompresses the compressed data block using the base value stored in the base value cache, metadata stored in the metadata cache and the delta values stored in memory.

Seyedzadehdelcheh, SeyedMohammad↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data compression system using base values and methods thereof

Seyedzadehdelcheh, Seyed Mohammad↗

DOE OSTI2022

Global Carbon Budget 2022

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2021, EFOS increased by 5.1 % relative to 2020, with fossil emissions at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 10.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1 (40.0 ± 2.9 GtCO2). Also, for 2021, GATM was 5.2 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of −0.6 GtC yr−1 (i.e. the total estimated sources were too low or sinks were too high). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2021 reached 414.71 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2022 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2021 of +1.0 % (0.1 % to 1.9 %) globally and atmospheric CO2 concentration reaching 417.2 ppm, more than 50 % above pre-industrial levels (around 278 ppm). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2021, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extratropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2022 (Friedlingstein et al., 2022b).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

A systems engineering vision for floating offshore wind cost optimization

The U.S. offshore wind resource potential is immense, and often in close proximity to densely-populated coastal load centers. In many U.S. coastal areas, water depths favor the deployment of floating over fixed-bottom offshore wind technology. Floating offshore wind plants have the potential to be cost-competitive with fixed-bottom installations, but because the technology has not yet been deployed at commercial scale, it is not clear when and with what configurations this potential cost parity can be achieved. This article first reviews the state of floating offshore wind technology and deployments to identify key gaps that must be addressed to bring down the overall cost of energy produced. The article then puts forth a long-term vision for a research program and design methodology that may be able to push floating wind plants toward a lower levelized cost of energy than fixed-bottom offshore wind. The method involves a fully integrated systems-engineering and techno-economic design approach to capture the complex interactions between the physics, manufacturing, installation, and operation of floating wind turbines to achieve transformational cost reductions. The approach also envisions multifidelity and uncertainty management strategies to examine the most robust and viable concepts in the design trade-space. To better focus the computational resources, engineering lessons learned from existing offshore wind systems and concept studies are used to develop a set of criteria that can be applied to prefilter candidate technology building blocks that have the greatest cost reduction potential.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Gas-phase ion-molecule interactions in a collision reaction cell with triple quadrupole-inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry: Investigations with N 2 O as the reaction gas

Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) was used as a reaction gas to investigate the gas phase ion-molecule interactions using the Agilent 8900 QQQ-ICP-MS. A multi-element standard containing 45 elements with masses ranging from 9 to 208 u was measured in the presence and absence of N 2 O. The main product ion species observed were oxides and nitrides. Comparison of the N 2 O reaction results with similar measurements conducted with O 2 revealed that N 2 O was more effective at forming oxides in general: the elements Cd and Pb were shown to produce oxides with N 2 O where the reaction did not occur with O 2 . Nitrous oxide was also shown to produce a significant amount of nitride species in a few cases. The general reactivity was shown to be consistent with density functional theory (DFT)-predicted reaction enthalpies, such that all predicted exothermic reactions produced product ions at levels at least 1% of the unreacted ion. Our results show that reaction enthalpy is a reasonable predictor of reactivity with N2O on the timescales of the interactions in non-thermal ICP-MS/MS systems. Our work demonstrates the utility of two relatively new platforms (commercial elemental ICP-MS/MS and EMSL Arrows interface to the NWChem program suite), which allows for the study of a large number of elements within a short period. While DFT with the basis sets utilized here is not the most accurate computational method, it is also not computationally expensive and is shown to be suitable for predicting gas phase reactivity in the QQQ-ICP-MS for the majority of ions studied. Here, the ease and rapidity of data collection and DFT calculations has the potential to be very impactful for the identification of targeted reaction chemistries to be leveraged for analytical method development, such as for the inline separation of isobaric interferences from analytes of interest.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Quantification of Ebola virus replication kinetics in vitro

Mathematical modelling has successfully been used to provide quantitative descriptions of many viral infections, but for the Ebola virus, which requires biosafety level 4 facilities for experimentation, modelling can play a crucial role. Ebola virus modelling efforts have primarily focused on in vivo virus kinetics, e.g., in animal models, to aid the development of antivirals and vaccines. But, thus far, these studies have not yielded a detailed specification of the infection cycle, which could provide a foundational description of the virus kinetics and thus a deeper understanding of their clinical manifestation. Here, we obtain a diverse experimental data set of the Ebola virus infection in vitro, and then make use of Bayesian inference methods to fully identify parameters in a mathematical model of the infection. Our results provide insights into the distribution of time an infected cell spends in the eclipse phase (the period between infection and the start of virus production), as well as the rate at which infectious virions lose infectivity. We suggest how these results can be used in future models to describe co-infection with defective interfering particles, which are an emerging alternative therapeutic.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Clean Grid Vision: A U.S. Perspective - Chapter 2. Distribution Issues and Tools

The continued growth in distributed energy resources is fundamentally changing the way the distribution system is operated and planned. Additionally, an increasing number of grid issues are being regularly experienced by distribution engineers within an increasing number of utilities. Fortunately, these fundamental changes and increasingly regular issues are being addressed via continual improvements in existing distribution system modeling tools—for both tools used by industry and researchers—and via novel modeling methods, which are combining transmission and distribution system modeling to investigate new, often complex, system interactions at the transmission/distribution power system interface. As DERs continue to increase more and more utilities, regulators, and developers are finding usable solutions in the deployment of smart inverters with ever more capable functionalities. This increase in functionality is welcome but comes at the cost of more complex analysis when determining what specific settings should be used for an individual interconnection. With more time, experience, and likely the further development of advanced analysis tools, even higher levels of DER integration will result in a reliable, resilient, low-cost, and safely operating grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Ensemble Monte Carlo calculations with five novel moves

We introduce five novel types of Monte Carlo (MC) moves that brings the number of moves of ensemble MC calculations from three to eight. So far such calculations have relied on affine invariant stretch moves that were originally introduced by Christen (2007), walk moves by Goodman and Weare (2010) and quadratic moves by Militzer (2023). Ensemble MC methods have been very popular because they harness information about the fitness landscape from a population of walkers rather than relying on expert knowledge. Here we modified the affine method and employed a simplex of points to set the stretch direction. We adopt the simplex concept to quadratic moves. We also generalize quadratic moves to arbitrary order. Finally, we introduce directed moves that employ the values of the probability density while all other types of moves rely solely on the location of the walkers. We apply all algorithms to the Rosenbrock density in 2 and 20 dimensions and to the ring potential in 12 and 24 dimensions. We evaluate their efficiency by comparing error bars, autocorrelation time, travel time, and the level of cohesion that measures whether any walkers were left behind. Our code is open source.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Threshold progressions in covering and packing contexts

Here, using standard methods (due to Janson, Stein–Chen, and Talagrand) from probabilistic combinatorics, we explore the following general theme: As one progresses from each member of a family of objects $\mathcal{A}$ being “covered” by at most one object in a random collection $\mathcal{C}$, to being covered at most λ times, to being covered at least once, to being covered at least λ times, a hierarchy of thresholds emerge. We will use examples from extremal set theory, combinatorics, and additive number theory to see how these results vary according to the context, and level of dependence introduced.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Optimal toolpath generation system and method for additively manufactured composite materials

The present disclosure relates to a system for optimizing an additive manufacturing (AM) process. The system may use a printing component for using a material to form a component in a layer-by-layer process. An electronic controller may control movement of one of the printing component or a substrate on which the component is being formed, in a manner to optimize a toolpath for the printing component as each layer of the component is formed. Optimization operations are performed using an optimization subsystem which enables manufacturability constraints, as well as optimized toolpaths for each layer of the component, to be defined using contours of a level-set function. The level-set function may be used to define the optimized toolpaths within a fixed, predetermined grid, and the optimized toolpaths then used to generate suitable code for controlling movement of the printing component relative to the substrate to create the part or structure in a layer-by-layer process, using the optimized toolpaths.

Lewicki, James↗

DOE OSTI2022

Sequential Bond Dissociation Energies of Th + (CO) x , x = 3–6: Guided Ion Beam Collision-Induced Dissociation and Quantum Computational Studies

Collision-induced dissociation (CID) of [Th,xC,xO] + , x = 3–6, with Xe is performed using a guided ion beam tandem mass spectrometer (GIBMS). Products are formed exclusively by the loss of CO ligands. Analyses of the kinetic energy-dependent CID product cross sections yield bond dissociation energies (BDEs) of (CO) x–1 Th + –CO at 0 K as 1.09 ± 0.05, 0.82 ± 0.07, 0.63 ± 0.05, and 0.70 ± 0.05 eV, respectively. Different structures of [Th,xC,xO] + were explored using various electronic structure methods, and BDEs for CO ligand loss from precursor [Th,xC,xO] + complexes were computed. Both experimental and theoretical results corroborate that the structures of [Th,xC,xO] + , x = 3–6, formed experimentally are homoleptic thorium cation carbonyl complexes, Th + (CO) x . The nonmonotonic trend in experimental BDEs is reproduced theoretically, although ambiguities in the spin states of the x = 4–6 complexes (doublet or quartet) remain. BDEs calculated at the coupled cluster with single, double, and perturbative triple excitations (CCSD(T))/cc-pVXZ//B3LYP/cc-PVXZ (X = T and Q) level and a complete basis set (CBS) extrapolation agree reasonably well with the experimental values for all complexes. Thorium oxide ketenylidene carbonyl cations, OTh + CCO(CO) y , y = 1–4, were calculated to be the most stable structures of [Th,xC,xO] + , x = 3–6, respectively; however, these are not observed in our experiment. Potential energy profiles (PEPs) having either quartet or doublet spin calculated at the B3LYP/cc-pVQZ level suggest that the failure to observe OTh + CCO(CO) y , y = 1–4, is the result of a barrier corresponding to the C–C bond formation, making the formation of OTh + CCO(CO) y inaccessible kinetically under the present experimental conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Model validation for inferred hot-spot conditions in National Ignition Facility experiments

Progress toward ignition requires accurately diagnosing current conditions and assessing proximity metrics for implosion experiments on the National Ignition Facility. Hot-spot conditions are not directly measured, but rather inferred, often using simple 0- and 1D models [P. Patel et al., Phys. Plasmas 27, 050901 (2020)]. In this work, we present a detailed accuracy validation exercise using a set of ~20,000 2D simulations encompassing a variety of performance and degradation levels. We find good agreement between the model-inferred pressure and the simulated burn-weighted pressure at peak neutron production and also present results on the precision of inferred quantities using a Markov-Chain Monte Carlo algorithm.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗