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Coupled Lake‐Atmosphere‐Land Physics Uncertainties in a Great Lakes Regional Climate Model
Abstract This study develops a surrogate‐based method to assess the uncertainty within a convective permitting integrated modeling system of the Great Lakes region, arising from interacting physics parameterizations across the lake, atmosphere, and land surface. Perturbed physics ensembles of the model during the 2018 summer are used to train a neural network surrogate model to predict lake surface temperature (LST) and near‐surface air temperature (T2m). Average physics uncertainties are determined to be 1.5C for LST and T2m over land, and 1.9C for T2m over lake, but these have significant spatiotemporal variations. We find that atmospheric physics parameterizations alone are the dominant sources of uncertainty (45%–53%), while lake and land parameterizations account for 33% and 38% of the uncertainty of LST and T2m over land respectively. Interactions of atmosphere physics parameterizations with those of the land and lake contribute to an additional 13%–17% of the total variance. LST and T2m over the lake are more uncertain in the deeper northern lakes, particularly during the rapid warming phase that occurs in late spring/early summer. The LST uncertainty increases with sensitivity to the lake model's surface wind stress scheme. T2m over land is more uncertain over forested areas in the north, where it is most sensitive to the land surface model, than the more agricultural land in the south, where it is most sensitive to the atmospheric planetary boundary and surface layer scheme. Uncertainty also increases in the southwest during multiday temperature declines with higher sensitivity to the land surface model.
Western Tennessee Water Resources: Leveraging High Resolution Remotely Sensed Data to Assess Water Availability and Vulnerability in the Memphis Aquifer Area in West Tennessee
The Memphis Aquifer (MA) is located in the Mississippi Embayment that extends 250,000 square kilometers across eight states. Fayette and Haywood counties in West Tennessee are situated within the recharge zone of the MA and include the forthcoming Ford “mega campus” named Blue Oval City (BOC), which will consist of a vehicle-production facility and battery assembly division. Increased water demand and land cover change resulting from urban development, such as BOC in the MA’s narrow recharge zone, threaten the aquifer’s groundwater storage and recharge rate. Groundwater recharge factors that influence the narrow recharge zone of the MA include precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff, and land cover type. In partnership with Protect Our Aquifer (POA) and the Center for Applied Earth Science and Engineering Research (CAESAR) at the University of Memphis, the team used data from the ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS), Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM IMERG), and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS). The team also used ancillary data from the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) and the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) Noah Land Surface Model. These results identified “thriving” recharge locations, which are areas most conducive to aquifer recharge in Fayette County. The partners may use the results to prioritize specific areas in need of protection before they become susceptible to the effects of urbanization and industrialization.
Application of a Machine Learning Algorithm in Generating an Evapotranspiration Data Product From Coupled Thermal Infrared and Microwave Satellite Observations
Land surface evapotranspiration (ET) is one of the main energy sources for atmospheric dynamics and a critical component of the local, regional, and global water cycles. Consequently, accurate measurement or estimation of ET is one of the most active topics in hydro-climatology research. With massive and spatially distributed observational data sets of land surface properties and environmental conditions being collected from the ground, airborne or space-borne platforms daily over the past few decades, many research teams have started to use big data science to advance the ET estimation methods. The Geostationary satellite Evapotranspiration and Drought (GET-D) product system was developed at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in 2016 to generate daily ET and drought maps operationally. The primary inputs of the current GET-D system are the thermal infrared (TIR) observations from NOAA GOES satellite series. Because of the cloud contamination to the TIR observations, the spatial coverage of the daily GET-D ET product has been severely impacted. Based on the most recent advances, we have tested a machine learning algorithm to estimate all-weather land surface temperature (LST) from TIR and microwave (MW) combined satellite observations. With the regression tree machine learning approach, we can combine the high accuracy and high spatial resolution of GOES TIR data with the better spatial coverage of passive microwave observations and LST simulations from a land surface model (LSM). The regression tree model combines the three LST data sources for both clear and cloudy days, which enables the GET-D system to derive an all-weather ET product. This paper reports how the all-weather LST and ET are generated in the upgraded GET-D system and provides an evaluation of these LST and ET estimates with ground measurements. The results demonstrate that the regression tree machine learning method is feasible and effective for generating daily ET under all weather conditions with satisfactory accuracy from the big volume of satellite observations.
Upscaling Wetland Methane Emissions From the FLUXNET–CH4 Eddy Covariance Network (UpCH4 v1.0): Model Development, Network Assessment, and Budget Comparison
Wetlands are responsible for 20%–31% of global methane (CH 4 ) emissions and account for a large source of uncertainty in the global CH 4 budget. Data-driven upscaling of CH 4 fluxes from eddy covariance measurements can provide new and independent bottom-up estimates of wetland CH 4 emissions. Here, we develop a six-predictor random forest upscaling model (UpCH4), trained on 119 site-years of eddy covariance CH 4 flux data from 43 freshwater wetland sites in the FLUXNET-CH4 Community Product. Network patterns in site-level annual means and mean seasonal cycles of CH 4 fluxes were reproduced accurately in tundra, boreal, and temperate regions (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency ~0.52–0.63 and 0.53). UpCH4 estimated annual global wetland CH 4 emissions of 146 ± 43 TgCH 4 y –1 for 2001–2018 which agrees closely with current bottom-up land surface models (102–181 TgCH 4 y –1 ) and overlaps with top-down atmospheric inversion models (155–200 TgCH 4 y –1 ). However, UpCH4 diverged from both types of models in the spatial pattern and seasonal dynamics of tropical wetland emissions. We conclude that upscaling of eddy covariance CH 4 fluxes has the potential to produce realistic extra-tropical wetland CH 4 emissions estimates which will improve with more flux data. To reduce uncertainty in upscaled estimates, researchers could prioritize new wetland flux sites along humid-to-arid tropical climate gradients, from major rainforest basins (Congo, Amazon, and SE Asia), into monsoon (Bangladesh and India) and savannah regions (African Sahel) and be paired with improved knowledge of wetland extent seasonal dynamics in these regions.
Combining MODIS LAI with ICESat-Based Canopy Heights Improves Spaceborne Estimates of Vegetation Roughness Length for Momentum
Most land-surface models require parameterization of vertical wind profiles within the atmospheric boundary layer. For vegetated surfaces, it is common to assume a logarithmic profile in the surface layer, which includes estimates of vegetation roughness length for momentum (z0) and zero-plane displacement height (d0). This study finds that remotely-sensed forest canopy heights improve estimates of aerodynamic roughness length for momentum using a previously-developed representation of the roughness sublayer (Raupach 1992; Jasinski et al. 2005). Resulting roughness products consist of two datasets: 1) 14 years of 8-day snapshots of the global land surface at a nominal spatial resolution of 500-meters for users who wish to retain full temporal resolution and interannual variability; and 2) multiyear averages of the 8-day snapshots, here referred to as "climatologies" of roughness, which retain underlying seasonality. Both products are suitable for use in data assimilation and reanalyses such as the National Climate Assessment Land Data Assimilation System (NCA-LDAS), for which these products were initially developed.
Integration of a Frost Mortality Scheme Into the Demographic Vegetation Model FATES
Frost is damaging to plants when air temperature drops below their tolerance threshold. The set of mechanisms used by cold-tolerant plants to withstand freezing is called “hardening” and typically take place in autumn to protect against winter damage. The recent incorporation of a hardening scheme in the demographic vegetation model FATES opens up the possibility to investigate frost mortality to vegetation. Previously, the hardening scheme was used to improve hydraulic processes in cold-tolerant plants. In this study, we expand upon the existing hardening scheme by implementing hardiness-dependent frost mortality into CLM5.0-FATES to study the impacts of frost on vegetation in temperate and boreal sites from 1950 to 2015. Our results show that the original freezing mortality approach of FATES, where each plant type had a fixed freezing tolerance threshold—an approach common to many other dynamic vegetation models, was restricted to predicting plant type distribution. The main results emerging from the new scheme are a high autumn and spring frost mortality, especially at colder sites, and increasing mid-winter frost mortality due to global warming, especially at warmer sites. We demonstrate that the new frost scheme is a major step forward in dynamically representing vegetation in ESMs by for the first time including a level of frost tolerance that is responding to the environment and includes some level of cost (implicitly) and benefit. By linking hardening and frost mortality in a land surface model, we open new ways to explore the impact of frost events in the context of global warming.
A unified ensemble soil moisture dataset across the continental United States
Abstract A unified ensemble soil moisture (SM) package has been developed over the Continental United States (CONUS). The data package includes 19 products from land surface models, remote sensing, reanalysis, and machine learning models. All datasets are unified to a 0.25-degree and monthly spatiotemporal resolution, providing a comprehensive view of surface SM dynamics. The statistical analysis of the datasets leverages the Koppen-Geiger Climate Classification to explore surface SM’s spatiotemporal variabilities. The extracted SM characteristics highlight distinct patterns, with the western CONUS showing larger coefficient of variation values and the eastern CONUS exhibiting higher SM values. Remote sensing datasets tend to be drier, while reanalysis products present wetter conditions. In-situ SM observations serve as the basis for wavelet power spectrum analyses to explain discrepancies in temporal scales across datasets facilitating daily SM records. This study provides a comprehensive soil moisture data package and an analysis framework that can be used for Earth system model evaluations and uncertainty quantification, quantifying drought impacts and land–atmosphere interactions and making recommendations for drought response planning.
GEWEX Water and Energy Budget Study
Closing the global water and energy budgets has been an elusive Global Energy and Water-cycle Experiment (GEWEX) goal. It has been difficult to gather many of the needed global water and energy variables and processes, although, because of GEWEX, we now have globally gridded observational estimates for precipitation and radiation and many other relevant variables such as clouds and aerosols. Still, constrained models are required to fill in many of the process and variable gaps. At least there are now several atmospheric reanalyses ranging from the early National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) and NCEP/Department of Energy (DOE) reanalyses to the more recent ERA40 and JRA-25 reanalyses. Atmospheric constraints include requirements that the models state variables remain close to in situ observations or observed satellite radiances. This is usually done by making short-term forecasts from an analyzed initial state; these short-term forecasts provide the next guess, which is corrected by comparison to available observations. While this analysis procedure is likely to result in useful global descriptions of atmospheric temperature, wind and humidity, there is no guarantee that relevant hydroclimate processes like precipitation, which we can observe and evaluate, and evaporation over land, which we cannot, have similar verisimilitude. Alternatively, the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), drives uncoupled land surface models with precipitation, surface solar radiation, and surface meteorology (from bias-corrected reanalyses during the study period) to simulate terrestrial states and surface fluxes. Further constraints are made when a tuned water balance model is used to characterize the global runoff observational estimates. We use this disparate mix of observational estimates, reanalyses, GLDAS and calibrated water balance simulations to try to characterize and close global and terrestrial atmospheric and surface water and energy budgets to within 10-20% for long term (1986-1995), large-scale global to regional annual means.
Decomposition of Sources of Errors in Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting over the U.S. Sunbelt
Seasonal streamflow forecasts, contingent on climate information, can be utilized to ensure water supply for multiple uses including municipal demands, hydroelectric power generation, and for planning agricultural operations. However, uncertainties in the streamflow forecasts pose significant challenges in their utilization in real-time operations. In this study, we systematically decompose various sources of errors in developing seasonal streamflow forecasts from two Land Surface Models (LSMs) (Noah3.2 and CLM2), which are forced with downscaled and disaggregated climate forecasts. In particular, the study quantifies the relative contributions of the sources of errors from LSMs, climate forecasts, and downscaling/disaggregation techniques in developing seasonal streamflow forecast. For this purpose, three month ahead seasonal precipitation forecasts from the ECHAM4.5 general circulation model (GCM) were statistically downscaled from 2.8deg to 1/8deg spatial resolution using principal component regression (PCR) and then temporally disaggregated from monthly to daily time step using kernel-nearest neighbor (K-NN) approach. For other climatic forcings, excluding precipitation, we considered the North American Land Data Assimilation System version 2 (NLDAS-2) hourly climatology over the years 1979 to 2010. Then the selected LSMs were forced with precipitation forecasts and NLDAS-2 hourly climatology to develop retrospective seasonal streamflow forecasts over a period of 20 years (1991-2010). Finally, the performance of LSMs in forecasting streamflow under different schemes was analyzed to quantify the relative contribution of various sources of errors in developing seasonal streamflow forecast. Our results indicate that the most dominant source of errors during winter and fall seasons is the errors due to ECHAM4.5 precipitation forecasts, while temporal disaggregation scheme contributes to maximum errors during summer season.
Assimilation of Soil Moisture Observations Over Land Improves Analysis and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Idai
Soil moisture conditions can impact the circulation and structure of a tropical cyclone (TC) when part or all of the circulation is over land. Dry land surface conditions may lead to faster dissipation of a TC over land, whereas very wet conditions may lead to a prolonged maintenance of its intensity. While this relationship is relatively well understood in theory, applications of these findings in the context of numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been limited. Here we present a case study that explores the potential of improving TC predictions through an improved soil moisture initialization in an NWP framework. Specifically, we examine the impact of assimilating observations from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global weather model on the prediction of South-West Indian Ocean TC Idai (2019). SMAP provides accurate L-band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperatures (Tb) observations that are sensitive to soil moisture globally and at high revisit times of 2-3 days. It has previously been shown that the assimilation of SMAP Tbs significantly improves modeled land surface states. Here we evaluate: (i) forecasts initialized from an analysis that is comparable to the GEOS operational analysis (without SMAP Tb assimilation) and (ii) forecasts initialized from an analysis that additionally assimilates SMAP Tb observations. We find that in the analysis with SMAP assimilation, the TC has a better-defined, more aligned vertical structure over land relative to the control run; moreover, the analyzed TC size, as measured by the wind speed radius, better matches the observed TC size. We further find significant reductions in the forecast intensity error and the forecast along-track error, measured against observations. The largest error reductions occur at lead times of 36 to 72 hours, suggesting that the land with its longer memory gains in importance as a source of predictability at this timescale. An investigation of the underlying mechanisms leading to the skill improvements from SMAP data assimilation revealed that the assimilation of SMAP leads to wetter soil moisture conditions and an increased latent heat flux in the SMAP analysis, which results in a TC with higher column-integrated total moisture content and total energy compared to the control analysis.
Data Assimilation Enhancements to Air Force Weather’s Land Information System
The United States Air Force (USAF) has a proud and storied tradition of enabling significant advancements in the area of characterizing and modeling land state information. 557th Weather Wing (557 WW; DoD’s Executive Agent for Land Information) provides routine geospatial intelligence information to warfighters, planners, and decision makers at all echelons and services of the U.S. military, government and intelligence community. 557 WW and its predecessors have been home to the DoD’s only operational regional and global land data analysis systems since January 1958. As a trusted partner since 2005, Air Force Weather (AFW) has relied on the Hydrological Sciences Laboratory at NASA/GSFC to lead the interagency scientific collaboration known as the Land Information System (LIS). LIS is an advanced software framework for high performance land surface modeling and data assimilation of geospatial intelligence (GEOINT) information.
Next generation Arctic vegetation maps: Aboveground plant biomass and woody dominance mapped at 30 m resolution across the tundra biome
The Arctic is warming faster than anywhere else on Earth, placing tundra ecosystems at the forefront of global climate change. Plant biomass is a fundamental ecosystem attribute that is sensitive to changes in climate, closely tied to ecological function, and crucial for constraining ecosystem carbon dynamics. However, the amount, functional composition, and distribution of plant biomass are only coarsely quantified across the Arctic. Therefore, we developed the first moderate resolution (30 m) maps of live aboveground plant biomass (g m −2 ) and woody plant dominance (%) for the Arctic tundra biome, including the mountainous Oro Arctic. We modeled biomass for the year 2020 using a new synthesis dataset of field biomass harvest measurements, Landsat satellite seasonal synthetic composites, ancillary geospatial data, and machine learning models. Additionally, we quantified pixel-wise uncertainty in biomass predictions using Monte Carlo simulations and validated the models using a robust, spatially blocked and nested cross-validation procedure. Observed plant and woody plant biomass values ranged from 0 to ∼6000 g m −2 (mean ≈ 350 g m −2 ), while predicted values ranged from 0 to ∼4000 g m −2 (mean ≈ 275 g m −2 ), resulting in model validation root-mean-squared-error (RMSE) ≈ 400 g m −2 and R 2 ≈ 0.6. Our maps not only capture large-scale patterns of plant biomass and woody plant dominance across the Arctic that are linked to climatic variation (e.g., thawing degree days), but also illustrate how fine-scale patterns are shaped by local surface hydrology, topography, and past disturbance. By providing data on plant biomass across Arctic tundra ecosystems at the highest resolution to date, our maps can significantly advance research and inform decision-making on topics ranging from Arctic vegetation monitoring and wildlife conservation to carbon accounting and land surface modeling.
Conceptual Problems in Land Surface Data Assimilation
A land data assimilation system (LDAS) merges observations (or satellite retrievals) of land surface hydrological conditions, including soil moisture, snow, and terrestrial water storage (TWS), into a numerical model of land surface processes. In theory, the output from such a system is superior to estimates based on the observations or the model alone, thereby enhancing our ability to understand, monitor, and predict key elements of the terrestrial water cycle. In practice, however, several conceptual problems can interfere with realizing the potential improvements from data assimilation. Of particular concern is the frequent mismatch between the assimilated observations and the land surface model variables of interest. The seminar will discuss recent research with the ensemble-based NASA GEOS-S LDAS to address various aspects of this mismatch. These aspects include (i) the assimilation of coarse-scale observations into higher-resolution land surface models, (ii) the partitioning of satellite observations (such as TWS retrievals) into their constituent water cycle components, (iii) the forward modeling of microwave brightness temperatures over land for radiance-based land surface data aSSimilation, and (iv) the selection of the most relevant types of observations for the analysis of a specific water cycle variable (such as root zone soil moisture). At its core, the solution to the above challenges involves the careful construction of an observation operator that maps from the land surface model variables of interest to the space of the assimilated observations.
The 2010 Russian Drought Impact on Satellite Measurements of Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence: Insights from Modeling and Comparisons with the Normalized Differential Vegetation Index (NDVI)
We examine satellite-based measurements of chlorophyll solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) over the region impacted by the Russian drought and heat wave of 2010. Like the popular Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) that has been used for decades to measure photosynthetic capacity, SIF measurements are sensitive to the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically-active radiation (fPAR). However, in addition, SIF is sensitive to the fluorescence yield that is related to the photosynthetic yield. Both SIF and NDVI from satellite data show drought-related declines early in the growing season in 2010 as compared to other years between 2007 and 2013 for areas dominated by crops and grasslands. This suggests an early manifestation of the dry conditions on fPAR. We also simulated SIF using a global land surface model driven by observation-based meteorological fields. The model provides a reasonable simulation of the drought and heat impacts on SIF in terms of the timing and spatial extents of anomalies, but there are some differences between modeled and observed SIF. The model may potentially be improved through data assimilation or parameter estimation using satellite observations of SIF (as well as NDVI). The model simulations also offer the opportunity to examine separately the different components of the SIF signal and relationships with Gross Primary Productivity (GPP).
Deriving Scaling Factors Using a Global Hydrological Model to Restore GRACE Total Water Storage Changes for China's Yangtze River Basin
This study used a global hydrological model (GHM), PCR-GLOBWB, which simulates surface water storage changes, natural and human induced groundwater storage changes, and the interactions between surface water and subsurface water, to generate scaling factors by mimicking low-pass filtering of GRACE signals. Signal losses in GRACE data were subsequently restored by the scaling factors from PCR-GLOBWB. Results indicate greater spatial heterogeneity in scaling factor from PCR-GLOBWB and CLM4.0 than that from GLDAS-1 Noah due to comprehensive simulation of surface and subsurface water storage changes for PCR-GLOBWB and CLM4.0. Filtered GRACE total water storage (TWS) changes applied with PCR-GLOBWB scaling factors show closer agreement with water budget estimates of TWS changes than those with scaling factors from other land surface models (LSMs) in China's Yangtze River basin. Results of this study develop a further understanding of the behavior of scaling factors from different LSMs or GHMs over hydrologically complex basins, and could be valuable in providing more accurate TWS changes for hydrological applications (e.g., monitoring drought and groundwater storage depletion) over regions where human-induced interactions between surface water and subsurface water are intensive.
Deducing Land-Atmosphere Coupling Regimes from SMAP Soil Moisture
In recent years, there has been a growing recognition of the significance of Land-Atmosphere (L-A) interactions and feedback mechanisms in understanding and predicting Earth’s water and energy cycles. Soil moisture plays a critical role in mediating the strength of L-A interactions and is important for understanding the complex and governing processes across this interface. This study aims to identify the significance of soil moisture in identifying L-A coupling strength within the Convective Triggering Potential (CTP) and Humidity Index (HI) framework. To address this, a consistent and reliable dataset of atmospheric profiles is created by merging CTP and HI using Triple Collocation (TC) with three reanalysis datasets. The merged CTP and HI product demonstrates enhanced performance globally as compared to the individual datasets when validated with radiosonde and satellite observations. This merged product of CTP and HI is then used to compare the L-A coupling strength based on Soil Moisture Active Passive Level 3 (SMAPL3) and SMAP Level 4 (SMAPL4) over two decades (2003-2022) where L-A coupling strength is defined as the persistence probability within the dry and wet coupling regimes. Results indicate that the persistency-based coupling strength is related to the ability of soil moisture to predict future atmospheric humidity and dry vs. wet coupling state. The coupling strength in SMAPL4 is consistently stronger than in SMAPL3 and is likely due to its reliance on a land surface model and reduced susceptibility to random noise. The difference in coupling strength based on the same CTP-HI underscores the importance of soil moisture data in estimating coupling strength within the CTP-HI framework. These findings lay the groundwork for understanding the role of L-A interactions and drought evolution due to soil moisture variations, by providing insight into the quantification of coupling strength and its role in drought monitoring and forecast efforts.
Assimilation of Blended Satellite Soil Moisture Data Products to Further Improve Noah-MP Model Skills
Microwave satellite remote sensing has enabled observations of soil moisture (SM) at the global scale, and multiple SM data products have been developed in the past decades. However, single-sensor-based measurements are insufficient for continuous spatiotemporal coverage. In the context of its climate program, the Climate Change Initiative, the European Space Agency (ESA) has developed robust, long term, global scale, multi instrument satellite derived time series of climate data record for key component of the climate system, including soil moisture (CCI), while the Soil Moisture Operational Product System (SMOPS) was specifically developed by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to offer the real time blended SM datasets through merging all available individual products. Before combining, all individual SM data ingested into both SMOPS and CCI blended products are scaled to Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) 0-10 cm SM climatology. Benefiting from land surface model evolution and the availability of high-quality forcing data, GLDAS has become more comprehensive to track SM changes and dynamic trends. The development of GLDAS and the scaling procedure in CCI and SMOPS leave an open scientific and operational question: do the blended satellite SM data products have added value comparing to the GLDAS product? This study clearly reveals that both CCI and SMOPS can provide the reliable SM observations with independent information, although their climatology matches well with GLDAS. Relative to assimilation of GLDAS 0-10 cm SM data, Noah-MP model can be further improved by assimilating the blended satellite SM observations with respect to the quality-controlled in situ measurements. The strong consistency of results presented in this paper proves that the blended satellite SM data products are more useful than the GLDAS product in terms of improving Noah-MP model performance.