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At least 505 records · Page 28

Lifetimes of Overshooting Convective Events using High-Frequency Gridded Radar Composites

Deep convection that penetrates the tropopause, referred to here as overshooting convection, is capable of lifting tropospheric air well into the stratosphere. In addition to water, these overshoots also transport various chemical species, affecting chemistry and radiation in the stratosphere. It is not currently known, however, how much transport is a result of this mechanism. To better understand overshooting convection, this study aims to characterize the durations of overshooting events. To achieve this, radar data from the Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) network is composited onto a three-dimensional grid at 5-min intervals. Overshoots are identified by comparing echo-top heights with tropopause estimates derived from ERA5 reanalysis data. These overshoots are linked in space from one analysis time to the next to form tracks. This process is performed for 12 four-day sample windows in the months May–August of 2017–19. Track characteristics such as duration, overshoot area, tropopause-relative altitude, and column-maximum reflectivity are investigated. Positive correlations are found between track duration and other track characteristics. Integrated track volume is found as a product of the overshoot area, depth, and duration, and provides a measure of the potential stratospheric impact of each track. Short-lived tracks are observed to contribute the most total integrated volume when considering track duration, while tracks that overshoot by 2–3 km show the largest contribution when considering overshoot depth. A diurnal cycle is observed, with peak track initiation around 1600–1700 local time. Track-mean duration peaks a few hours earlier, while track-mean area and tropopause-relative height peak a few hours later.

Atmosphere↗

Anthropogenic Land-use Change and the Dynamics of Amazon Forest Biomass

This project was focused on assessing the effects of prevailing land uses, such as habitat fragmentation, selective logging, and fire, on biomass and carbon storage in Amazonian forests, and on the dynamics of carbon sequestration in regenerating forests. Ancillary goals included developing GIs models to help predict the future condition of Amazonian forests, and assessing the effects of anthropogenic climate change and ENS0 droughts on intact and fragmented forests. Ground-based studies using networks of permanent plots were linked with remote-sensing data (including Landsat TM and AVHRR) at regional scales, and higher-resolution techniques (IKONOS imagery, videography, LIDAR, aerial photographs) at landscape and local scales. The project s specific goals were quite eclectic and included: Determining the effects of habitat fragmentation on forest dynamics, floristic composition, and the various components of above- and below-ground biomass. Assessing historical and physical factors that affect trajectories of forest regeneration and carbon sequestration on abandoned lands. Extrapolating results from local studies of biomass dynamics in fragmented and regenerating forests to landscape and regional scales in Amazonia, using remote sensing and GIS. Testing the hypothesis that intact Amazonian forests are functioning as a significant carbon sink. Examining destructive synergisms between forest fragmentation and fire. Assessing the short-term impacts of selective logging on aboveground biomass. Developing GIS models that integrate current spatial data on forest cover, deforestation, logging, mining, highway and roads, navigable rivers, vulnerability to wild fires, protected areas, and existing and planned infrastructure projects, in an effort to predict the future condition of Brazilian Amazonian forests over the next 20-25 years. Devising predictive spatial models to assess the influence of varied biophysical and anthropogenic predictors on Amazonian deforestation.

Laurance, William F.↗

Registration and fusion of large-scale melt pool temperature and morphology monitoring data demonstrated for surface topography prediction in LPBF

In-situ monitoring technologies for laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) additive manufacturing often face one key challenge, extracting the ultrafast melt pool (MP) signatures for understanding the localized part properties. Further, the spatial information of each monitored MP signature is essential for correlating the MP – part property. This spatial information is often unavailable especially from commercial LPBF printers. Many MP monitoring methods have been reported and utilized. However, very few of these have the MP’s spatial information. To overcome this challenge, in this work we report a method for spatially registering the key MP signatures (MP intensity, temperature, and area) to the monitored print parts. The MP signatures are obtained from our coaxial high-speed single-camera based two-wavelength imaging pyrometry (STWIP) system and the MP spatial information is obtained from an off-axis camera system. A machine learning aided image analysis method is employed to retrieve the spatial distribution of MPs within the corresponding part’s coordinates system. Then, the MP signature maps (MPSMs) are reconstructed by mapping the STWIP measured MP signatures to the registered MP coordinates. Further, a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network is developed for estimating the layer surface topography from the registered MPSMs. The obtained results indicate that the layer surface topography can be more accurately estimated by using MP temperature signature rather than MP intensity and/or area signatures as in common practice. Finally, our developed methods for MP monitoring, registration, and MP-surface topography prediction offer advanced capabilities for the online detection of process anomalies and part defects.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

PHALANX: Expendable Projectile Sensor Networks for Planetary Exploration

Technologies enabling long-term, wide-ranging measurement in hard-to-reach areas are a critical need for planetary science inquiry. Phenomena of interest include flows or variations in volatiles, gas composition or concentration, particulate density, or even simply temperature. Improved measurement of these processes enables understanding of exotic geologies and distributions or correlating indicators of trapped water or biological activity. However, such data is often needed in unsafe areas such as caves, lava tubes, or steep ravines not easily reached by current spacecraft and planetary robots. To address this capability gap, we have developed miniaturized, expendable sensors which can be ballistically lobbed from a robotic rover or static lander - or even dropped during a flyover. These projectiles can perform sensing during flight and after anchoring to terrain features. By augmenting exploration systems with these sensors, we can extend situational awareness, perform long-duration monitoring, and reduce utilization of primary mobility resources, all of which are crucial in surface missions. We call the integrated payload that includes a cold gas launcher, smart projectiles, planning software, network discovery, and science sensing: PHALANX. In this paper, we introduce the mission architecture for PHALANX and describe an exploration concept that pairs projectile sensors with a rover “mothership.” Science use cases explored include reconnaissance using ballistic cameras, volatiles detection, and building timelapse maps of temperature and illumination conditions. Strategies to autonomously coordinate constellations of deployed sensors to self-discover and localize with peer ranging (i.e. a “local GPS”) are summarized, thus providing communications infrastructure beyond-line-of-sight (BLOS) of the rover. Capabilities were demonstrated through both simulation and physical testing with a terrestrial prototype. The approach to developing a terrestrial prototype is discussed, including design of the launching mechanism, projectile optimization, micro-electronics fabrication, and sensor selection. Results from early testing and characterization of commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) components are reported. Nodes were subjected to successful burn-in tests over 48 hours at full logging duty cycle. Integrated field tests were conducted in the Roverscape, a half-acre planetary analog environment at NASA Ames, where we tested up to 10 sensor nodes simultaneously coordinating with an exploration rover. Ranging accuracy has been demonstrated to be within +/-10cm over 20m using commodity radios when compared to high-resolution laser scanner ground truthing. Evolution of the design, including progressive miniaturization of the electronics and iterated modifications of the enclosure housing for streamlining and optimized radio performance are described. Finally, lessons learned to date, gaps toward eventual flight mission implementation, and continuing future development plans are discussed.

Dille, Michael↗

Colorado River Basin Water Resources: Pairing Phenology Citizen Science Observations with NASA Earth Observations to Monitor Riparian Vegetation

Native plant species in the Colorado River Basin are currently threatened by non-native species that are changing resource competition dynamics. Monitoring native species is essential for understanding changes in plant health throughout the year as well as how species’ distributions change inter-annually. However, current monitoring of species is limited to local efforts and cannot be efficiently conducted across more extensive regions of the basin. Project partners, including the USA National Phenology Network, United States Geological Survey, and Educating Children Outdoors, provided data and on-the-ground expertise to assist the project. NASA Earth observations, including Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Aqua and Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI) from the European Space Agency, provided remote sensing data that covers the large spatial extent of the basin. This study combined both data sources over the study period of 2013 – 2019 and explored the relationship between on-the-ground phenology observations and remotely sensed phenology signals. The team found that pairing the datasets required spatial coordinates to be accurately logged and that it was necessary to have consistent observations throughout the year by citizen scientists. The team found promising relationships between phenology observations and the two vegetation indices, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and enhanced vegetation index (EVI), when study locations were in an area with a high proportion of vegetation within a satellite pixel. The results and methods outlined in this study create new opportunities to leverage remote sensing alongside citizen science data for widespread monitoring of non-native species.

Tyler Pantle↗

Hyper‐Local Temperature Prediction Using Detailed Urban Climate Informatics

The accurate modeling of urban microclimate is a challenging task given the high surface heterogeneity of urban land cover and the vertical structure of street morphology. Recent years have witnessed significant efforts in numerical modeling and data collection of the urban environment. Nonetheless, it is difficult for the physical‐based models to fully utilize the high‐resolution data under the constraints of computing resources. The advancement in machine learning (ML) techniques offers the computational strength to handle the massive volume of data. In this study, we proposed a modeling framework that uses ML approach to estimate point‐scale street‐level air temperature from the urban‐resolving meso‐scale climate model and a suite of hyper‐resolution urban geospatial data sets, including three‐dimensional urban morphology, parcel‐level land use inventory, and weather observations from a sensor network. We implemented this approach in the City of Chicago as a case study to demonstrate the capability of the framework. The proposed approach vastly improves the resolution of temperature predictions in cities, which will help the city with walkability, drivability, and heat‐related behavioral studies. Moreover, we tested the model's reliability on out‐of‐sample locations to investigate the modeling uncertainties and the application potentials to the other areas. This study aims to gain insights into next‐gen urban climate modeling and guide the observation efforts in cities to build the strength for the holistic understanding of urban microclimate dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Spatial mapping of the localized corrosion behavior of a magnesium alloy AZ31B tungsten inert gas weld

Sections of a magnesium alloy, AZ31B, joined with tungsten inert gas (TIG) welding, were examined with scanning electrochemical microscopy (SECM) and scanning Kelvin probe force microscopy (SKPFM) to investigate corrosion mechanisms by correlating observed corrosion behavior with weld-affected microstructural variations. Insight into the changing nature of the galvanic couples between weld zones and at localized microgalvanic sites were investigated using SECM and SKPFM to map both electrochemically active regions and Volta potential differences across the weld-affected zones. The formation of an Al-Zn solidification network in the fusion zone (FZ) at and near the TIG weld epicenter differs from the outer heat-affected zone (HAZ), where intermetallic particles (IMPs) are the notable secondary phase from the magnesium matrix. These microstructures were mapped with SKPFM before and after brief exposure to a salt solution, revealing micro-galvanic couples as the main driving force to corrosion initiation and propagation within each zone. The IMPs and Al-Zn solidification network act as strong cathodes and govern the corrosion processes. The galvanic coupling and evolution of the intrinsic corrosion behavior between the weld zones is explained by monitoring the hydrogen evolution reaction (HER) with SECM over time. Anodically induced cathodic activation is confirmed for this welded material, as micro-galvanic couples between microstructural features are found to transition over time to broad electrochemically active areas within the weld-affected zones, resulting in polarity reversal as time of exposure proceeds.

Anodically induced cathodic activation↗

Advances in Hyperspectral Image Classification Methods for Vegetation and Agricultural Cropland Studies

Hyperspectral data are becoming more widely available via sensors on airborne and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) platforms, as well as proximal platforms. While space-based hyperspectral data continue to be limited in availability, multiple spaceborne Earth-observing missions on traditional platforms are scheduled for launch, and companies are experimenting with small satellites for constellations to observe the Earth, as well as for planetary missions. Land cover mapping via classification is one of the most important applications of hyperspectral remote sensing and will increase in significance as time series of imagery are more readily available. However, while the narrow bands of hyperspectral data provide new opportunities for chemistry-based modeling and mapping, challenges remain. Hyperspectral data are high dimensional, and many bands are highly correlated or irrelevant for a given classification problem. For supervised classification methods, the quantity of training data is typically limited relative to the dimension of the input space. The resulting Hughes phenomenon, often referred to as the curse of dimensionality, increases potential for unstable parameter estimates, overfitting, and poor generalization of classifiers. This is particularly problematic for parametric approaches such as Gaussian maximum likelihood–based classifiers that have been the backbone of pixel-based multispectral classification methods. This issue has motivated investigation of alternatives, including regularization of the class covariance matrices, ensembles of weak classifiers, development of feature selection and extraction methods, adoption of nonparametric classifiers, and exploration of methods to exploit unlabeled samples via semi-supervised and active learning. Data sets are also quite large, motivating computationally efficient algorithms and implementations. This chapter provides an overview of the recent advances in classification methods for mapping vegetation using hyperspectral data. Three data sets that are used in the hyperspectral classification literature (e.g., Botswana Hyperion satellite data and AVIRIS airborne data over both Kennedy Space Center and Indian Pines) are described in Section 3.2 and used to illustrate methods described in the chapter. An additional high-resolution hyperspectral data set acquired by a SpecTIR sensor on an airborne platform over the Indian Pines area is included to exemplify the use of new deep learning approaches, and a multiplatform example of airborne hyperspectral data is provided to demonstrate transfer learning in hyperspectral image classification. Classical approaches for supervised and unsupervised feature selection and extraction are reviewed in Section 3.3. In particular, nonlinearities exhibited in hyperspectral imagery have motivated development of nonlinear feature extraction methods in manifold learning, which are outlined in Section 3.3.1.4. Spatial context is also important in classification of both natural vegetation with complex textural patterns and large agricultural fields with significant local variability within fields. Approaches to exploit spatial features at both the pixel level (e.g., co-occurrence–based texture and extended morphological attribute profiles [EMAPs]) and integration of segmentation approaches (e.g., HSeg) are discussed in this context in Section 3.3.2. Recently, classification methods that leverage nonparametric methods originating in the machine learning community have grown in popularity. An overview of both widely used and newly emerging approaches, including support vector machines (SVMs), Gaussian mixture models, and deep learning based on convolutional neural networks is provided in Section 3.4. Strategies to exploit unlabeled samples, including active learning and metric learning, which combine feature extraction and augmentation of the pool of training samples in an active learning framework, are outlined in Section 3.5. Integration of image segmentation with classification to accommodate spatial coherence typically observed in vegetation is also explored, including as an integrated active learning system. Exploitation of multisensor strategies for augmenting the pool of training samples is investigated via a transfer learning framework in Section 3.5.1.2. Finally, we look to the future, considering opportunities soon to be provided by new paradigms, as hyperspectral sensing is becoming common at multiple scales from ground-based and airborne autonomous vehicles to manned aircraft and space-based platforms.

Pasolli, Edoardo↗

Tracking NO2 Pollution Changes Over Texas: Synthesis of In Situ and Satellite Observations

Nitrogen oxides (NO x ) are major air pollutants that play a crucial role in atmospheric chemistry. We compare Ozone Measuring Instrument's (OMI) NO 2 records with the in situ surface measurements from the Air Quality System of the US Environmental Protection Agency and the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality network in the state of Texas with the goal of understanding the correspondence of satellite and in situ surface observations and identifying the potential synergies between the two observing systems. Our analysis of over 40 in situ daily surface site observations, mostly from urban areas, and OMI daily observed data suggests a correlation ( r ) ranging between 0.2 and 0.8. The correlation improves considerably ( r > 0.5) for monthly average data. Weekly variation of surface NO 2 with a Sunday minimum is well captured by OMI tropospheric NO 2 column observations with similar weekend reductions. NO 2 trend in Texas during 2005–2019 is characterized by significant reductions of 20%–36% in highly populated cities and urban centers. However, a significant (up to 80%) increase was observed in oil and gas producing regions of the Permian and Eagle Ford Basins over the same period. In March–April of 2020, like the other US and global cities, Texas experienced up to 60% reduction in NO 2 levels in major cities due to travel restrictions imposed at local and national levels to contain the spread of COVID-19. Though such reduction is temporary, these reductions were significantly larger than those achieved in the past 16 years of OMI record suggesting that technological advancement can curtail NO x emissions.

Nitrogen dioxide (NO2)↗

Emergency Communications Console

NASA has applied its communications equipment expertise to development of a communications console that provides, in a compact package only slightly larger than an electric typewriter, all the emergency medical services communications functions needed for a regional hospital. A prototype unit, built by Johnson Space Center, has been installed in the Odessa (Texas) Medical Center Hospital. The hospital is the medical control center for the 17-county Permian Basin Emergency Medical System in west Texas. The console project originated in response to a request to NASA from the Texas governor's office, which sought a better way of providing emergency medical care in rural areas. Because ambulance travel time is frequently long in remote areas of west Texas, it is important that treatment begin at the scene of the emergency rather than at the hospital emergency room. A radio and telephone system linking ambulance emergency technicians and hospital staff makes this possible. But earlier equipment was complex, requiring specialized operators. A highly reliable system was needed to minimize breakdowns and provide controls of utmost simplicity, so that the system could be operated by physicians and nurses rather than by communications specialists. The resulting console has both radio and telephone sections. With the radio equipment, hospital personnel can communicate with ambulance drivers and paramedics, receive incoming electrocardiagrams, consult with other hospitals, page hospital staff and set up a radio-to-telephone "patch." The telephone portion of the system includes a hotline from the Permian Basin Emergency Medical Service's resource control center, an automatic dialer for contacting special care facilities in the Permian Basin network, a hospital intercom terminal and a means of relaying cardioscope displays and other data between hospitals. The integrated system also provides links with local disaster and civil defense organizations and with emergency "Dial 911" control points.

Source record↗

Evaluation of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height From Wind Profiling Radar and Slab Models and Its Responses to Seasonality of Land Cover, Subsidence, and Advection

In this study, we evaluated the effect of land cover, atmospheric subsidence, and advection on the annual dynamics of atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) height from two contrasting sites. The first site is the Walker Branch forest, a deciduous forest of temperate climate, complex topography, and cloudy summers. The second site is the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, a site of Mediterranean climate, flat terrain on a local scale, and clear summers. After testing a new algorithm to calculate ABL heights from 915 MHz radar wind profilers, we evaluated a hierarchy of three slab models to recreate the diurnal and annual patterns of ABL growth. We found that the lower ABL heights in the Delta, particularly during late summer, are driven by the combined effects of increased atmospheric subsidence and marine air advection. In both sites, the annual pattern of ABL height was strongly correlated to total daily incoming radiation, and in the Delta, the annual pattern of ABL height closely followed the seasonal patterns of sensible heat flux from a mosaic of different land covers. A land composite of latent and sensible heat fluxes obtained through a meso-network of eddy covariance measurements and the ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) mission resulted in higher model skill, thus showing that land cover heterogeneity is an important driver of ABL growth. To conclude, model simulations show that in the Delta, restoring agricultural land to wetlands with large open water areas could result in a reduction of ABL height during those months with low subsidence and advection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Forecasting Lightning at Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida

The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a set of statistical forecast equations that provide a probability of lightning occurrence on Kennedy Space Center (KSC) I Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) for the day during the warm season (May September). The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) forecasters at CCAFS in Florida include a probability of lightning occurrence in their daily 24-hour and weekly planning forecasts, which are briefed at 1100 UTC (0700 EDT). This information is used for general scheduling of operations at CCAFS and KSC. Forecasters at the Spaceflight Meteorology Group also make thunderstorm forecasts for the KSC/CCAFS area during Shuttle flight operations. Much of the current lightning probability forecast at both groups is based on a subjective analysis of model and observational data. The objective tool currently available is the Neumann-Pfeffer Thunderstorm Index (NPTI, Neumann 1971), developed specifically for the KSCICCAFS area over 30 years ago. However, recent studies have shown that 1-day persistence provides a better forecast than the NPTI, indicating that the NPTI needed to be upgraded or replaced. Because they require a tool that provides a reliable estimate of the daily thunderstorm probability forecast, the 45 WS forecasters requested that the AMU develop a new lightning probability forecast tool using recent data and more sophisticated techniques now possible through more computing power than that available over 30 years ago. The equation development incorporated results from two research projects that investigated causes of lightning occurrence near KSCICCAFS and over the Florida peninsula. One proved that logistic regression outperformed the linear regression method used in NPTI, even when the same predictors were used. The other study found relationships between large scale flow regimes and spatial lightning distributions over Florida. Lightning, probabilities based on these flow regimes were used as candidate predictors in the equation development. Fifteen years (1 989-2003) of warm season data were used to develop the forecast equations. The data sources included a local network of cloud-to-ground lightning sensors called the Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS), 1200 UTC Florida synoptic soundings, and the 1000 UTC CCAFS sounding. Data from CGLSS were used to determine lightning occurrence for each day. The 1200 UTC soundings were used to calculate the synoptic-scale flow regimes and the 1000 UTC soundings were used to calculate local stability parameters, which were used as candidate predictors of lightning occurrence. Five logistic regression forecast equations were created through careful selection and elimination of the candidate predictors. The resulting equations contain five to six predictors each. Results from four performance tests indicated that the equations showed an increase in skill over several standard forecasting methods, good reliability, an ability to distinguish between non-lightning and lightning days, and good accuracy measures and skill scores. Given the overall good performance the 45 WS requested that the equations be transitioned to operations and added to the current set of tools used to determine the daily lightning probability of occurrence.

Lambert, Winfred↗

Chemodiversity of riverine dissolved organic matter: Effects of local environments and watershed characteristics

Riverine dissolved organic matter (DOM) is crucial to global carbon cycling and aquatic ecosystems. However, the geographical patterns and environmental correlates of DOM chemodiversity remain elusive especially in surface waters and sediments of global rivers. Here, we systematically analyzed DOM molecular diversity and composition in surface waters and sediments across 97 globally distributed rivers using data from the Worldwide Hydrobiogeochemistry Observation Network for Dynamic River Systems (WHONDRS) consortium. Here, we further examined the associations of molecular richness and composition with geographical, climatic, physicochemical variables, as well as the watershed characteristics. We found that molecular richness significantly decreased toward higher latitudes, but only in sediments (r = -0.24, P < 0.001). The environmental variables like precipitation and non-purgeable organic carbon showed strong associations with DOM molecular richness and composition. Interestingly, we identified that less-documented factors like watershed characteristics were also related to DOM molecular richness and composition, and were stronger in waters than sediments. Such associations were further supported by the fact that 11 out of 13 watershed characteristics (e.g., land cover variables) showed more positive than negative correlations with molecular abundance especially in waters. The molecules positively and negatively correlated with specific watershed characteristics had distinct traits, such as stoichiometric ratios and aromaticity. Land covers shifted from natural (e.g., forests) to human-modified (e.g., impervious area) were associated with systematic changes in DOM molecular chemistry. Our findings imply that it may be possible to use a small set of broadly available data types to predict DOM molecular richness and composition across diverse river systems. Elucidation of mechanisms underlying these relationships will provide further enhancements to such predictions, especially when extrapolating to unsampled systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Primordial non-Gaussianity from the completed SDSS-IV extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey – I: Catalogue preparation and systematic mitigation

ABSTRACT We investigate the large-scale clustering of the final spectroscopic sample of quasars from the recently completed extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS). The sample contains 343 708 objects in the redshift range 0.8 < z < 2.2 and 72 667 objects with redshifts 2.2 < z < 3.5, covering an effective area of $4699\, {\rm deg}^{2}$. We develop a neural network-based approach to mitigate spurious fluctuations in the density field caused by spatial variations in the quality of the imaging data used to select targets for follow-up spectroscopy. Simulations are used with the same angular and radial distributions as the real data to estimate covariance matrices, perform error analyses, and assess residual systematic uncertainties. We measure the mean density contrast and cross-correlations of the eBOSS quasars against maps of potential sources of imaging systematics to address algorithm effectiveness, finding that the neural network-based approach outperforms standard linear regression. Stellar density is one of the most important sources of spurious fluctuations, and a new template constructed using data from the Gaia spacecraft provides the best match to the observed quasar clustering. The end-product from this work is a new value-added quasar catalogue with the improved weights to correct for non-linear imaging systematic effects, which will be made public. Our quasar catalogue is used to measure the local-type primordial non-Gaussianity in a companion paper.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Geodetic Measurement of Deformation East of the San Andreas Fault in Central California

Triangulation and trilateration data from two geodetic networks located between the western edge of the Great Valley and the San Andreas fault have been used to calculate shear strain rates in the Diablo Range and to estimate the slip rate along the Calaveras and Paicines faults in Central California. Within the Diablo Range the average shear strain rate was determined for the time period between 1962 and 1982 to be 0.15 + or - 0.08 microrad/yr, with the orientation of the most compressive strain at N 16 deg E + or - 14 deg. The orientation of the principal compressive strain predicted from the azimuth of the major structures in the region is N 25 deg E. It is inferred that the measured strain is due to compression across the folds of this area: the average shear straining corresponds to a relative shortening rate of 4.5 + or - 2.4 mm/yr. From an examination of wellbore breakout orientations and the azimuths of P-axes from earthquake focal mechanisms the inferred orientation of maximum compressive stress was found to be similar to the direction of maximum compressive strain implied by the trend of local fold structures. Results do not support the hypothesis of uniform fault-normal compression within the Coast Ranges. From trilateration measurements made between 1972 and 1987 on lines that are within 10 km of the San Andreas fault, a slip rate of 10 to 12 mm/yr was calculated for the Calaveras-Paicines fault south of Hollister. The slip rate of the Paicines fault decreases to 4 mm/yr near Bitter.

Sauber, Jeanne M.↗

Bayesian sparse learning with preconditioned stochastic gradient MCMC and its applications

Deep neural networks have been successfully employed in an extensive variety of research areas, including solving partial differential equations. Despite its significant success, there are some challenges in effectively training DNN, such as avoiding overfitting in over-parameterized DNNs and accelerating the optimization in DNNs with pathological curvature. Here, we propose a Bayesian type sparse deep learning algorithm. The algorithm utilizes a set of spike-and-slab priors for the parameters in the deep neural network. The hierarchical Bayesian mixture will be trained using an adaptive empirical method. That is, one will alternatively sample from the posterior using preconditioned stochastic gradient Langevin Dynamics (PSGLD), and optimize the latent variables via stochastic approximation. The sparsity of the network is achieved while optimizing the hyperparameters with adaptive searching and penalizing. A popular SG-MCMC approach is Stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD). However, considering the complex geometry in the model parameter space in nonconvex learning, updating parameters using a universal step size in each component as in SGLD may cause slow mixing. To address this issue, we apply a computationally manageable preconditioner in the updating rule, which provides a step-size parameter to adapt to local geometric properties. Moreover, by smoothly optimizing the hyperparameter in the preconditioning matrix, our proposed algorithm ensures a decreasing bias, which is introduced by ignoring the correction term in the preconditioned SGLD. According to the existing theoretical framework, we show that the proposed algorithm can asymptotically converge to the correct distribution with a controllable bias under mild conditions. Numerical tests are performed on both synthetic regression problems and learning solutions of elliptic PDE, which demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the present work.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Algorithms for Performance, Dependability, and Performability Evaluation using Stochastic Activity Networks

Modeling tools and technologies are important for aerospace development. At the University of Illinois, we have worked on advancing the state of the art in modeling by Markov reward models in two important areas: reducing the memory necessary to numerically solve systems represented as stochastic activity networks and other stochastic Petri net extensions while still obtaining solutions in a reasonable amount of time, and finding numerically stable and memory-efficient methods to solve for the reward accumulated during a finite mission time. A long standing problem when modeling with high level formalisms such as stochastic activity networks is the so-called state space explosion, where the number of states increases exponentially with size of the high level model. Thus, the corresponding Markov model becomes prohibitively large and solution is constrained by the the size of primary memory. To reduce the memory necessary to numerically solve complex systems, we propose new methods that can tolerate such large state spaces that do not require any special structure in the model (as many other techniques do). First, we develop methods that generate row and columns of the state transition-rate-matrix on-the-fly, eliminating the need to explicitly store the matrix at all. Next, we introduce a new iterative solution method, called modified adaptive Gauss-Seidel, that exhibits locality in its use of data from the state transition-rate-matrix, permitting us to cache portions of the matrix and hence reduce the solution time. Finally, we develop a new memory and computationally efficient technique for Gauss-Seidel based solvers that avoids the need for generating rows of A in order to solve Ax = b. This is a significant performance improvement for on-the-fly methods as well as other recent solution techniques based on Kronecker operators. Taken together, these new results show that one can solve very large models without any special structure.

Deavours, Daniel D.↗

Dynamic Earthquake Triggering in Southern California in High Resolution: Intensity, Time Decay, and Regional Variability

Abstract Earthquake triggering by seismic waves has been recognized as a phenomenon for nearly 30 years. However, our ability to study dynamic triggering has been limited by our ability to capture the triggering stresses accurately and record the resultant earthquakes. Here we use full waveforms from a dense seismic network and a modern, high‐resolution seismic catalog to measure triggering in Southern California from 2008 to 2017 based on interevent time ratios. We find that the fractional seismicity rate change, which we term triggering intensity or triggerability, as a function of peak strain change for the period of ∼20 s due to distant earthquakes is monotonically increasing and compatible with earlier measurements made with a disjoint data set from 1984 to 2008. A triggering strain of 1 microstrain is equivalent to the local productivity generated by an M 1.8 earthquakes. This result implies that a prediction of seismicity rate changes can be made based on recorded ground shaking using the same formalism as currently used for aftershock prediction. For a teleseismic event, this small level of triggering occurs throughout the region and thus aggregates to a regional effect. We find that the triggering rate decays after the triggerer follows an Omori‐Utsu law, but at a much slower rate than a typical aftershock sequence. The slow decay rate suggests that an ancillary process such as creep or fluid flow must be part of dynamic triggering. The prevalence of triggering in areas of creep or fluid involvement reinforces this inference. A triggering cascade of secondary earthquakes is insufficient to explain the data.

Miyazawa, Masatoshi↗