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At least 505 records · Page 28

TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI): motivations and protocol version 1.0

Upcoming telescopes such as the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), the European Extremely Large Telescope (E-ELT), the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT) or the Giant Magellan Telescope (GMT) may soon be able to characterize, through transmission, emission or reflection spectroscopy, the atmospheres of rocky exoplanets orbiting nearby M dwarfs. One of the most promising candidates is the late M-dwarf system TRAPPIST-1, which has seven known transiting planets for which transit timing variation (TTV) measurements suggest that they are terrestrial in nature, with a possible enrichment in volatiles. Among these seven planets, TRAPPIST-1e seems to be the most promising candidate to have habitable surface conditions, receiving ∼66 % of the Earth's incident radiation and thus needing only modest greenhouse gas inventories to raise surface temperatures to allow surface liquid water to exist. TRAPPIST-1e is, therefore, one of the prime targets for the JWST atmospheric characterization. In this context, the modeling of its potential atmosphere is an essential step prior to observation. Global climate models (GCMs) offer the most detailed way to simulate planetary atmospheres. However, intrinsic differences exist between GCMs which can lead to different climate prediction and thus observability of gas and/or cloud features in transmission and thermal emission spectra. Such differences should preferably be known prior to observations. In this paper we present a protocol to intercompare planetary GCMs. Four testing cases are considered for TRAPPIST-1e, but the methodology is applicable to other rocky exoplanets in the habitable zone. The four test cases included two land planets composed of modern-Earth and pure-CO2 atmospheres and two aqua planets with the same atmospheric compositions. Currently, there are four participating models (LMDG, ROCKE-3D, ExoCAM, UM); however, this protocol is intended to let other teams participate as well.

Thomas Jean Daniel Fauchez↗

Use of ERTS-1 imagery in forest inventory

The utility of ERTS-1 imagery when combined with field observations and with aircraft imagery and field observations is evaluated. Satellite imagery consisted of 9-1/2 inch black and white negatives of four multispectral scanner bands taken over Polk County, Tennessee. Aircraft imagery was obtained by a C-130 flying at 23,000 ft over the same area and provided the basis for locating ground plots for field observations. Correspondence between aircraft and satellite imagery was somewhat inaccurate due to seasonal differences in observations and lack of good photogrammetry with the data processing system used. Better correspondence was found between satellite imagery and ground observations. Ways to obtain more accurate data are discussed, and comparisons between aircraft and satellite observations are tabulated.

Rennie, J. C.↗

Investigations of spectral separability of small grains, early season wheat detection, and multicrop inventory planning

The author has identified the following significant results. LANDSAT data from seven 5 by 6 segments having crop type information were analyzed to determine the potential for spectral separation of spring wheat from other small grains as an alternative to the primary LACIE procedure for estimating spring wheat acreage. Within segment field-center, classification accuracies for spring wheat vs. barley tended to be best in mid-July when crop color changes were in progress. When correlations were made for differences in atmospheric haze, data from several segments could be aggregated, and results that approached within segment accuracies were obtained for selected dates. LACIE field measurement spectral reflectance data provided information on both wheat development patterns and the importance of various agronomic factors on wheat reflectance, the most important being availability of soil moisture. To investigate early season detection for winter wheat, reflectance of developing wheat patterns was simulated through reflectance modeling and was analyzed along with field measured reflectance from a Kansas site. The green component development of the wheat field was analyzed as a function of data throughout the season. A selected threshold was not crossed by all fields until mid-April. These reflectance data were shown to be consistent actual LANDSAT data.

Nalepka, R. F.↗

Degradation of ILW Drums Due to Internal Metallic Corrosion - 18036

Within the British nuclear inventory, metallic Intermediate Level Waste (ILW) is encapsulated in grout and stored in stainless steel drums. Based on recent inspections held in the relevant storage facilities (Sellafield, Cumbria), a proportion of these drums have exhibited considerable distortion, raising concerns about the long-term safety of the packages. Distortion may be caused by the generation of voluminous and potentially flammable substances resulting from metallic corrosion occurring within the drums' core. Potential oxygen influx in the event of steel fracture and consequently drum's failure could potentially cause release or even ignition of the encapsulated radioactive material. The mechanical degradation of the encapsulants (stainless steel and grout) induced from the progressive corrosion of the encapsulated metallic components (and the associated volume expansion) was investigated using both Finite Element Modelling (FEM) techniques as well as experimental trials. A parametric study using simplified 3D FE models was performed to determine their structural integrity under different scenarios. Synchrotron X-Ray tomography (XRT) was used to monitor the behaviour of miniaturized ILW drum-simulants, whilst the latter were subjected to controlled accelerated corrosion in situ. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Agricultural Impacts on Nitrogen Cycling: Climate and Air Pollution (Final Technical Report)

We have successfully added a parameterization of ammonia emissions from synthetic fertilizer and manure from agriculture to Earth System Models. We have evaluated how emissions change in the future and the processes driving these changes. We have examined the impact of agricultural ammonia emissions on present-day air quality and have evaluated the impact of resolving the emissions with high temporal resolution. We have also examined the impact of how Earth System Models treat the cycling of emissions in soils. Our code, the Flows of Agricultural Nitrogen – version 2 – model (FANv2) has been run in both the CLM framework and the ELM framework. To my knowledge the code has not yet been fully implemented into ELM. Volatilization of ammonia (NH3) from fertilizers and livestock wastes forms a significant pathway of nitrogen losses in agricultural ecosystems and constitutes the largest source of atmospheric emissions of NH3. We have provided a major update to the process model FAN (Flow of Agricultural Nitrogen), which evaluates NH3 emissions interactively within an Earth system model; in this work, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) is used. The updated version (FANv2) includes a more detailed treatment of both physical and agricultural processes, which allows the model to differentiate between the volatilization losses from animal housings, manure storage, grazed pastures, and the application of manure and different types of mineral fertilizers. The modeled ammonia emissions are first evaluated at a local scale against experimental data for various types of fertilizers and manure, and they are subsequently run globally to evaluate NH3 emissions for 2010–2015 based on gridded datasets of fertilizer use and livestock populations. Comparison of regional emissions shows that FANv2 agrees with previous inventories for North America and Europe and is within the range of previous inventories for China. However, due to higher NH3 emissions in Africa, India, and Latin America, the global emissions simulated by FANv2(48 Tg N) are 30 %–40 % higher than in the existing inventories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Plutonium Signatures in Molten-Salt Reactor Off-Gas Tank and Safeguards Considerations

Fluid-fueled molten-salt reactors (MSRs) are actively being developed by several companies, with plans to deploy them internationally. The current IAEA inspection tools are largely incompatible with the unique design features of liquid fuel MSRs (e.g., the complex fuel chemistry, circulating fuel inventory, bulk accountancy, and high radiation environment). For these reasons, safeguards for MSRs are seen as challenging and require the development of new techniques. This paper proposes one such technique through the observation of the reactor’s off-gas. Any reactor design using low-enriched uranium will build up plutonium as the fuel undergoes burnup. Plutonium has different fission product yields than uranium. Therefore, a shift in fission product production is expected with fuel evolution. The passive removal of certain gaseous fission products to the off-gas tank of an MSR provides a valuable opportunity for analysis without significant modifications to the design of the system. Uniquely, due to the gaseous nature of the isotopes, beta particle emissions are available for observation. The ratios of these fission product isotopes can, thus, be traced back to the relative amount and types of fissile isotopes in the core. This proposed technique represents an effective safeguards tool for bulk accountancy which, while avoiding being onerous, could be used in concert with other techniques to meet the IAEA’s timeliness goals for the detection of a diversion.

Dunkle, Nicholas (ORCID:000000027323011X)↗

An improved mechanistic model for ammonia volatilization in Earth system models: Flow of Agricultural Nitrogen version 2 (FANv2)

Abstract. Volatilization of ammonia (NH 3 ) from fertilizers and livestock wastes forms a significant pathway of nitrogen losses in agricultural ecosystems and constitutes the largest source of atmospheric emissions of NH 3 . This paper describes a major update to the process model FAN (Flow of Agricultural Nitrogen), which evaluates NH 3 emissions interactively within an Earth system model; in this work, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) is used. The updated version (FANv2) includes a more detailed treatment of both physical and agricultural processes, which allows the model to differentiate between the volatilization losses from animal housings, manure storage, grazed pastures, and the application of manure and different types of mineral fertilizers. The modeled ammonia emissions are first evaluated at a local scale against experimental data for various types of fertilizers and manure, and they are subsequently run globally to evaluate NH3 emissions for 2010–2015 based on gridded datasets of fertilizer use and livestock populations. Comparison of regional emissions shows that FANv2 agrees with previous inventories for North America and Europe and is within the range of previous inventories for China. However, due to higher NH 3 emissions in Africa, India, and Latin America, the global emissions simulated by FANv2 (48 Tg N) are 30 %–40 % higher than in the existing inventories.

Vira, Julius↗

Stratospheric aerosol forcing for CMIP7 – Part 1: optical properties for pre-industrial, historical, and scenario simulations

Stratospheric aerosols, most of which originate from explosive volcanic sulfur emissions into the stratosphere, are a key natural driver of climate variability. They are thus a forcing provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Climate Forcings Task Team to climate modelling groups participating in phase 7 of CMIP. For the historical period, we provide two datasets covering 1750–2023: (i) a volcanic upper tropospheric-stratospheric sulfur emission dataset, documented in a companion paper; and (ii) a stratospheric sulfate aerosol optical property dataset, documented in this paper. For the satellite era (from 1979 onwards), stratospheric aerosol optical properties are derived from the Global Space-based Stratospheric Aerosol Climatology (GloSSAC) dataset. For the pre-satellite era (1750–1978), optical properties are derived from our volcanic SO 2 emission dataset using a new version of the reduced-complexity volcanic aerosol model Easy Volcanic Aerosol (Height) (EVA_H v2). A background, non-volcanic stratospheric aerosol climatology is derived from the 1998–2001 period with a trend over 1850–1978 accounting for increasing anthropogenic aerosols. A monthly stratospheric aerosol climatology is derived from the 1850–2021 average for both pre-industrial and scenario (future) simulations, with a 9-year ramp over 2022–2030 for scenario simulations to ensure a smooth transition from the historical period. CMIP7 simulations should use version 2.2.1 of our pre-industrial and historical datasets, and version 2.2.2 of our scenario dataset. Our methodology to produce historical aerosol optical properties significantly differs from CMIP6 for the pre-satellite era, and the resulting forcings in turn largely differ. In particular, the CMIP6 dataset was mostly based on the sparse and uncertain pyrheliometer record, which resulted in strongly underrepresented emissions from small-to-moderate magnitude eruptions. The resulting bias is addressed in CMIP7, which is entirely emission-derived in the pre-satellite era and uses more recent ice-core-based volcanic sulfur emission inventories than CMIP6. Our approach results in an overall larger volcanic aerosol forcing for CMIP7, with the 1850–2014 mean mid-visible global mean stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD) in CMIP7 (0.0138) being 29 % higher than in CMIP6 (0.0107). The pre-industrial mean of the same variable is 26 % higher in CMIP7 (0.0135, derived from the historical 1850–2021) than CMIP6 (0.0107, derived from the historical 1850–2014 mean). Using a reduced-complexity climate model, we simulate a global mean surface temperature that is 0.07 °C colder for 1850–1900 when using the CMIP7 dataset instead of CMIP6, whereas 2000–2014 is 0.03 °C warmer in CMIP7. Our dataset also exhibits lower forcing for 1960–1980, resulting in temperatures 0.06 °C warmer when averaged over 1960–1990, a period for which CMIP6 climate models exhibit a cold bias. Given the large uncertainties characterizing the dataset, in particular for the pre-satellite era, we advise against treating the CMIP7 or CMIP6 dataset as uniquely superior for any specific year and highlight the need for further evaluation. We conclude the study by discussing sources of uncertainty for the dataset, future research avenues to improve it, as well as requirements to operationalize the production of the dataset, i.e. extend it and update it on an annual basis instead of every 5–7 years following CMIP cycles.

Aubry, Thomas J. [Univ. of Exeter, Devon (United K↗

An inventory of aeronautical ground research facilities. Volume 2: Air breathing engine test facilities

The inventory covers free jet and direct connect altitude cells, sea level static thrust stands, sea level test cells with ram air, and propulsion wind tunnels. Free jet altitude cells and propulsion wind tunnels are used for evaluation of complete inlet-engine-exhaust nozzle propulsion systems under simulated flight conditions. These facilities are similar in principal of operation and differ primarily in test section concept. The propulsion wind tunnel provides a closed test section and restrains the flow around the test specimen while the free jet is allowed to expand freely. A chamber of large diameter about the free jet is provided in which desired operating pressure levels may be maintained. Sea level test cells with ram air provide controlled, conditioned air directly to the engine face for performance evaluation at low altitude flight conditions. Direct connect altitude cells provide a means of performance evaluation at simulated conditions of Mach number and altitude with air supplied to the flight altitude conditions. Sea level static thrust stands simply provide an instrumented engine mounting for measuring thrust at zero airspeed. While all of these facilities are used for integrated engine testing, a few provide engine component test capability.

Pirrello, C. J.↗

Temporal variability largely explains top-down/bottom-up difference in methane emission estimates from a natural gas production region

Here, this study spatially and temporally aligns top-down and bottom-up methane emission estimates for a natural gas production basin, using multiscale emission measurements and detailed activity data reporting. We show that episodic venting from manual liquid unloadings, which occur at a small fraction of natural gas well pads, drives a factor-of-two temporal variation in the basin-scale emission rate of a US dry shale gas play. The midafternoon peak emission rate aligns with the sampling time of all regional aircraft emission studies, which target well-mixed boundary layer conditions present in the afternoon. A mechanistic understanding of emission estimates derived from various methods is critical for unbiased emission verification and effective greenhouse gas emission mitigation. Our results demonstrate that direct comparison of emission estimates from methods covering widely different timescales can be misleading.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Estimation of Inherent Safety Margins in Loaded Commercial Spent Nuclear Fuel Casks

We completed a novel assessment to determine the unquantified and uncredited safety margins (i.e., the difference between the licensing basis and as-loaded calculations) available in as-loaded spent nuclear fuel (SNF) casks. This assessment was performed as part of a broader effort to assess issues and uncertainties related to the continued safety of casks during extended storage and transportability following extended storage periods. Detailed analyses crediting the actual as-loaded cask inventory were performed for each of the casks at three decommissioned pressurized water reactor (PWR) sites to determine their characteristics relative to regulatory safety criteria for criticality, thermal, and shielding performance. These detailed analyses were performed in an automated fashion by employing a comprehensive and integrated data and analysis tool—Used Nuclear Fuel-Storage, Transportation & Disposal Analysis Resource and Data System (UNF-ST&DARDS). Calculated uncredited criticality margins from 0.07 to almost 0.30 Δk eff were observed; calculated decay heat margins ranged from 4 to almost 22 kW (as of 2014); and significant uncredited transportation dose rate margins were also observed. The results demonstrate that, at least for the casks analyzed here, significant uncredited safety margins are available that could potentially be used to compensate for SNF assembly and canister structural performance related uncertainties associated with long-term storage and subsequent transportation. The results also suggest that these inherent margins associated with how casks are loaded could support future changes in cask licensing to directly or indirectly credit the margins. Work continues to quantify the uncredited safety margins in the SNF casks loaded at other nuclear reactor sites.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Microbial Methylation of Iodide in Unconfined Aquifer Sediments at the Hanford Site, USA

Incomplete knowledge of environmental transformation reactions limits our ability to accurately inventory and predictably model the fate of radioiodine. The most prevalent chemical species of iodine include iodate (IO 3 - ), iodide (I - ), and organo-iodine. The emission of gaseous species could be significant loss or flux term but these processes have not been investigated at radioiodine impacted sites. We examined iodide methylation and volatilization for Hanford Site sediments from 3 different locations under native and organic substrate amended conditions at 3 iodide concentrations. Aqueous and gaseous sampling revealed methyl-iodide to be the only iodinated compound produced under biotic conditions. No abiotic transformations of iodide were measured. Methyl-iodide was produced by 52 out of 54 microcosms, regardless of prior exposure to iodine contamination or the experimental concentration. Interestingly, iodide volatilization activity was consistently higher under native (oligotrophic) Hanford sediment conditions. Carbon and nutrients were not only unnecessary for microbial activation, but supplementation resulted in > 3 fold reduction in methyl-iodide formation. This investigation not only demonstrates the potential for iodine volatilization in deep, oligotrophic subsurface sediments at a nuclear waste site, but also emphasizes an important role for biotic methylation pathways to the long-term management and monitoring of radioiodine in the environment.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Dimethylsilanediol (DMSD) Source Assessment and Mitigation on ISS: Estimated Contributions from Personal Hygiene Products Containing Volatile Methyl Siloxanes (VMS)

Dimethylsilanediol (DMSD) is a small organosilicon compound present in humidity condensate on the International Space Station. Aqueous DMSD originates from volatile methyl siloxane (VMS) compounds in the ISS cabin atmosphere. DMSD is not effectively removed by the WPA (Water Processor Assembly), requiring removal and replacement of both WPA Multifiltration (MF) Beds for an estimated resupply penalty of approximately 70 kg/year. Analyses indicate that WPA can handle DMSD if the concentration in the condensate can by reduced by fifty percent. Personal Hygiene Products (PHPs) used by crew are suspected to be a significant source of VMS. Source removal of VMS will be required to achieve a measurable impact to the DMSD concentration in the condensate. The inventory of total crew provisions for ISS was analyzed to identify silicon containing materials and products used for personal hygiene that emit VMS. Accounting for the wide range in mass of hygiene product applied to skin or hair, the frequency of application, the product selection, the number of crew using a given product, the range in silicon mass fraction of different products, and the potential vaporization of the product, the potential total VMS emissions from personal hygiene products for a crew of six on ISS were estimated. The total daily VMS emissions from PHPs estimate ranges from 261 to 1145 mg-Si per day, compared to total estimated VMS generation rates on ISS of 800 to 1500 mg-Si per day. The main sources of VMS were determined to be antiperspirants (173 to 696 mg-Si per day), skin lotions (63 to 248 mg-Si per day), wipes (25 to 124 mg-Si per day) and hair conditioner (0 to 69 mg-Si per day). Several siloxanes-free options are available for deodorants, wet wipes, lotions, and leave-in conditioners. These products are now being assessed for crew member use in future increments.

Muirhead, Dean L.↗

Quantifying Annual Industrial Locomotive Energy Consumption in the United States

While US Class 1 railroad locomotive rosters and annual fuel consumption are well-documented, considerably less is known regarding the overall energy consumption of operations involving industrial locomotives. To determine the energy savings potential of this rail operating sector, the objective of this research is to develop an inventory of US industrial locomotives and a baseline estimate of their annual energy consumption. Creating an industrial locomotives roster from public data is challenging given their diverse ownership by shippers or leasing companies, and operating locales largely out of public view. By cross-referencing public data on locomotive reporting marks, serial numbers, online images and aerial images, the project team confirmed the age, model and horsepower of over one thousand industrial locomotives. Estimating energy consumption is complicated by the variability in industrial locomotive types and power ratings, and extreme differences in duty cycles and utilization. Given these limitations, using quantified case study examples and adjustments to standard EPA line-haul and switching duty cycles, bounds on the magnitude of annual US industrial locomotive energy consumption were estimated.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Analysis of hydrogen fueling, recycling, and confinement at Wendelstein 7-X via a single-reservoir particle balance

Abstract A single-reservoir particle balance for the main plasma species hydrogen has been established for W7-X. This has enabled the quantitative characterization of the particle sources in the standard island divertor configuration for the first time. Findings from attached scenarios with two different island sizes with a boronized wall and turbo molecular pumping are presented. Fueling efficiencies, particle flows and source locations were measured and used to infer the total particle confinement time τ p . Perturbative gas injection experiments served to measure the effective particle confinement time τ p * . Combining both confinement times provides access to the global recycling coefficient R ¯ . Hydrogen particle inventories have been addressed and the knowledge of particle sources and sinks reveals the core fueling distribution and provides insight into the capability of the magnetic islands to control exhaust features. Measurements of hydrogen fueling efficiencies were sensitive to the precise fueling location and measured between 12% and 31% with the recycling fueling at the strike line modeled at only 6%, due to much higher densities. 15% of the total 5.2 × 10 22 a/s recycling flow ionizes far away from the recycling surfaces in the main chamber. It was shown that 60% of recycled particles ionize above the horizontal and 18% above the vertical divertor target, while the remainder of the recycling flow ionizes above the baffle (7%). Combining these source terms with their individual fueling efficiencies resolves the core fueling distribution. Due to the higher fueling efficiency in the main chamber, up to 51% of the total 5.1 × 10 21 s −1 core fueling particles are entering the confined plasma from the main chamber. τ p values in the range of 260 ms were extracted for these discharges. Together with τ p , the global recycling coefficient R ¯ was resolved for every τ p * measurement and a typical value close to unity was obtained. An increase of the island size, resulted in no change of τ p , but doubled τ p * , indicating the feasibility of the control coils as an actuator to control exhaust features without affecting core confinement properties.

recycling↗

Comparison of Precision of Biomass Estimates in Regional Field Sample Surveys and Airborne LiDAR-Assisted Surveys in Hedmark County, Norway

Airborne scanning LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) has emerged as a promising tool to provide auxiliary data for sample surveys aiming at estimation of above-ground tree biomass (AGB), with potential applications in REDD forest monitoring. For larger geographical regions such as counties, states or nations, it is not feasible to collect airborne LiDAR data continuously ("wall-to-wall") over the entire area of interest. Two-stage cluster survey designs have therefore been demonstrated by which LiDAR data are collected along selected individual flight-lines treated as clusters and with ground plots sampled along these LiDAR swaths. Recently, analytical AGB estimators and associated variance estimators that quantify the sampling variability have been proposed. Empirical studies employing these estimators have shown a seemingly equal or even larger uncertainty of the AGB estimates obtained with extensive use of LiDAR data to support the estimation as compared to pure field-based estimates employing estimators appropriate under simple random sampling (SRS). However, comparison of uncertainty estimates under SRS and sophisticated two-stage designs is complicated by large differences in the designs and assumptions. In this study, probability-based principles to estimation and inference were followed. We assumed designs of a field sample and a LiDAR-assisted survey of Hedmark County (HC) (27,390 km2), Norway, considered to be more comparable than those assumed in previous studies. The field sample consisted of 659 systematically distributed National Forest Inventory (NFI) plots and the airborne scanning LiDAR data were collected along 53 parallel flight-lines flown over the NFI plots. We compared AGB estimates based on the field survey only assuming SRS against corresponding estimates assuming two-phase (double) sampling with LiDAR and employing model-assisted estimators. We also compared AGB estimates based on the field survey only assuming two-stage sampling (the NFI plots being grouped in clusters) against corresponding estimates assuming two-stage sampling with the LiDAR and employing model-assisted estimators. For each of the two comparisons, the standard errors of the AGB estimates were consistently lower for the LiDAR-assisted designs. The overall reduction of the standard errors in the LiDAR-assisted estimation was around 40-60% compared to the pure field survey. We conclude that the previously proposed two-stage model-assisted estimators are inappropriate for surveys with unequal lengths of the LiDAR flight-lines and new estimators are needed. Some options for design of LiDAR-assisted sample surveys under REDD are also discussed, which capitalize on the flexibility offered when the field survey is designed as an integrated part of the overall survey design as opposed to previous LiDAR-assisted sample surveys in the boreal and temperate zones which have been restricted by the current design of an existing NFI.

Comparison↗

Global Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) Version 2: New Activities and Future Plans

A remote sensing-based system has been developed to characterize the potential for rainfall-triggered landslides across the globe in near real-time. The Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) model uses a decision tree framework to combine a static susceptibility map derived from information on slope, rock characteristics, forest loss, distance to fault zones and distance to road networks with satellite precipitation estimates from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission. Since 2016, the LHASA model has been providing near real-time and retrospective estimates of potential landslide activity. Results of this work are available at https://landslides.nasa.gov. In order to advance LHASA’s capabilities to characterize landslide hazards and impacts dynamically, we have implemented a new approach that leverages machine learning, new parameters, and new inventories. LHASA 2.0 uses the XGBoost machine learning model to bring in dynamic variables as well as additional static variables to better represent landslide hazard globally. Global rainfall forecasts are also being evaluated to provide a 1-3 day forecast of potential landslide activity. Additional factors such as recent seismicity and burned areas are also being considered to represent the preconditioning or changing interactions with subsequent rainfall over affected areas. A series of parameters are being tested within this structure using NASA’s Global Landslide Catalog as well as many other event-based and multi-temporal inventories mapped by the project team or provided by project partners. In addition to estimates of landslide hazard, LHASA Version 2 will incorporate dynamic estimates of exposure including population, roads and infrastructure to highlight the potential impacts that rainfall-triggered landslides. The ultimate goal of LHASA Version 2.0 is to approximate the relative probabilities of landslide hazard and exposure across different space and time scales to inform hazard assessment retrospectively over the past 20 years, in near real-time, and in the future. In addition to the hazard. This presentation will outline the new activities for LHASA Version 2.0 and present some next steps for this system.

Dalia Kirschbaum↗

Development of a BlueCRAB/MELCOR Framework for Supporting Realistic Mechanistic Source Term Calculations in Microreactors

Efforts are currently underway to deploy microreactor modeling and simulation tools to better support vendors and regulatory authorities in submitting and reviewing licensing applications. In particular, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission is expected to rely on the Comprehensive Reactor Analysis Bundle (BlueCRAB) multiphysics toolset in performing design- and beyond-design-basis accident analyses. In addition, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission has been using the MELCOR code to estimate mechanistic source terms during accidents. As MELCOR relies on isotopic inventory and reactor temperature/power evolution profiles during accident conditions—all of which can theoretically be obtained from BlueCRAB—the ultimate goal of this activity is to establish a common BlueCRAB-MELCOR framework. However, prior to the present research, BlueCRAB had never been used to calculate such quantities of interest at the full-core level. While there are many Monte Carlo (MC) codes capable of computing such quantities of interest, they are unable to readily account for multiphysics feedback. BlueCRAB allows for the coupling of different physics codes together to perform multiphysics-informed calculations. Therefore, the purpose of this fiscal year 2023 work is to investigate the feasibility and challenges of performing such calculations within BlueCRAB so as to generate the data that MELCOR relies on. To demonstrate the methodology, the proposed workflow was applied to a prototypical heat pipe-cooled microreactor model. To predict isotopic concentrations (taking into account the ac- cumulation of fission products during operation), the necessary microscopic cross sections were generated via OpenMC and tabulated with respect to temperature and burnup. Next, a recently developed capability in Griffin (the reactor physics application in BlueCRAB) was used to convert the OpenMC output format into the ISOXML format used by Griffin. A multiphysics microscopic depletion calculation that involved performing a coupled full-core, heterogeneous neutron trans- port and thermal calculation at each depletion step was conducted to deplete the core to end of life (EOL) conditions so as to provide both isotopics and the initial condition for the transient calculation. Following a brief null-transient to verify that the initial condition had been properly restarted and was indeed in thermal equilibrium, a heat pipe failure transient was simulated. Thus, the entire workflow of using BlueCRAB to generate MELCOR inputs, from cross-section generation to producing isotopic inventory and power/temperature evolution profiles during transients, is demonstrated. This report also details the identified gaps in the workflow and how they were (for the most part) addressed. Future work should focus on directly including MEL- COR into the workflow by performing a MELCOR calculation using the BlueCRAB-generated input data. In addition, the heat pipe reactor design should be improved so as to reflect more prototypical burnup characteristics at EOL.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗