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At least 505 records · Page 28
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Influence of Atmospheric Rivers on Alaskan River Ice

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) transport vast amounts of moisture from low to high latitude regions. One region particularly impacted by ARs is Interior Alaska (AK). We analyze the impact of ARs on the annual river ice breakup date for 26 locations in AK. We investigate the AR-driven rise in local air temperatures and explore the relationship between ARs and precipitation, including extremes and interannual variability. We found that AR events lead to an increase in local air temperatures for over 1 week (by ≈ 1 °C). ARs account for 40% of total precipitation, explain 47% of precipitation variability, and make up 59% of extreme precipitation events, each year. By estimating the heat transfer between winter precipitation and the river ice surface, we conclude that increased precipitation during the coldest period of the year delays river ice breakup dates, while precipitation occurring close to the breakup date has little impact on breakup timing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Synchronization of the Recent Decline of East African Long Rains and Northwestern Eurasian Warming

Abstract The East African March–April–May (MAM, “long rains”) precipitation decline in recent decades remains a puzzle marked by various proposed large‐scale drivers. Here, the interannual variability of the long rains and their recent drying trend are examined using global model simulations and observations. Comparison of a control simulation and re‐initialized simulations in which land‐surface feedback is suppressed shows that much of the long rains deficit experienced between 1980 and 2014 is synchronized with the warming of the Northwestern Eurasian landmass. In agreement with the modeling results, multiple observational data sets reveal a strong negative correlation between MAM mean East African rainfall amount and the surface temperature over Northwestern Eurasia. Idealized simulations further indicate that warming in Northwestern Eurasia weakens the regional Hadley Cell and diverts the monsoonal transport of moisture away from Eastern Africa toward Europe and southern Africa, highlighting the role of remote land surface warming on the observed precipitation decline.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Understanding the Recent Increase in Landfalling Tropical Cyclones Over Florida's Gulf Coast

Unlike Florida's Atlantic Coast, the Gulf Coast of Florida has seen heightened tropical cyclone (TC) activity in recent decades with several destructive landfalls. Here, we attempt to understand this regional contrast using a suite of observations for the period 1979–2024. First, we demonstrate that while the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) can explain ~23% of the interannual variability in landfalls over the Gulf Coast, the variance explained by them for the Atlantic Coast is statistically insignificant. Next, we show that this striking difference may be attributed to the regional patterns of wind shear, steering flow and air-sea thermodynamic state excited by those modes of variability. The differential control exerted by ENSO, AMO, and NAO on landfalling Florida TCs, in combination with decadal trends in those modes, is likely responsible for the observed increases in landfalls over Florida's Gulf Coast.

Florida↗
DOE OSTI2023

Metabolically diverse microorganisms mediate methylmercury formation under nitrate-reducing conditions in a dynamic hydroelectric reservoir

Brownlee Reservoir is a mercury (Hg)-impaired hydroelectric reservoir that exhibits dynamic hydrological and geochemical conditions and is located within the Hells Canyon Complex in Idaho, USA. Methylmercury (MeHg) contamination in fish is a concern in the reservoir. While MeHg production has historically been attributed to sulfate-reducing bacteria and methanogenic archaea, microorganisms carrying the hgcA gene are taxonomically and metabolically diverse and the major biogeochemical cycles driving mercury (Hg) methylation are not well understood. In this study, Hg speciation and redox-active compounds were measured throughout Brownlee Reservoir across the stratified period in four consecutive years (2016–2019) to identify the location where and redox conditions under which MeHg is produced. Metagenomic sequencing was performed on a subset of samples to characterize the microbial community with hgcA and identify possible links between biogeochemical cycles and MeHg production. Biogeochemical profiles suggested in situ water column Hg methylation was the major source of MeHg. These profiles, combined with genome-resolved metagenomics focused on hgcA-carrying microbes, indicated that MeHg production occurs in this system under nitrate- or manganese-reducing conditions, which were previously thought to preclude Hg-methylation. Using this multidisciplinary approach, we identified the cascading effects of interannual variability in hydrology on the redox status, microbial metabolic strategies, abundance and metabolic diversity of Hg methylators, and ultimately MeHg concentrations throughout the reservoir. This work expands the known conditions conducive to producing MeHg and suggests that the Hg-methylation mitigation efforts by nitrate or manganese amendment may be unsuccessful in some locations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Widespread 2013-2020 decreases and reduction challenges of organic aerosol in China

Abstract High concentrations of organic aerosol (OA) occur in Asian countries, leading to great health burdens. Clean air actions have resulted in significant emission reductions of air pollutants in China. However, long-term nation-wide trends in OA and their causes remain unknown. Here, we present both observational and model evidence demonstrating widespread decreases with a greater reduction in primary OA than in secondary OA (SOA) in China during the period of 2013 to 2020. Most of the decline is attributed to reduced residential fuel burning while the interannual variability in SOA may have been driven by meteorological variations. We find contrasting effects of reducing NO x and SO 2 on SOA production which may have led to slight overall increases in SOA. Our findings highlight the importance of clean energy replacements in multiple sectors on achieving air-quality targets because of high OA precursor emissions and fluctuating chemical and meteorological conditions.

Chen, Qi (ORCID:0000000335598914)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Decadal increases in carbon uptake offset by respiratory losses across northern permafrost ecosystems

Tundra and boreal ecosystems encompass the northern circumpolar permafrost region and are experiencing rapid environmental change with important implications for the global carbon (C) budget. We analysed multi-decadal time series containing 302 annual estimates of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) flux across 70 permafrost and non-permafrost ecosystems, and 672 estimates of summer CO 2 flux across 181 ecosystems. We find an increase in the annual CO 2 sink across non-permafrost ecosystems but not permafrost ecosystems, despite similar increases in summer uptake. Thus, recent non-growing-season CO 2 losses have substantially impacted the CO 2 balance of permafrost ecosystems. Furthermore, analysis of interannual variability reveals warmer summers amplify the C cycle (increase productivity and respiration) at putatively nitrogen-limited sites and at sites less reliant on summer precipitation for water use. Our findings suggest that water and nutrient availability will be important predictors of the C-cycle response of these ecosystems to future warming.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Contrasting biological production trends over land and ocean

Terrestrial and marine ecosystems constitute the primary components of the Earth’s biosphere, yet their photosynthetic productions are typically studied separately, which limits understanding of planetary carbon uptake and biosphere health. Here, in this study, using multiple satellite-derived products, we identify contrasting net primary production (NPP) trends between land and ocean, probably reflecting their differential sensitivity to climate warming, especially in tropical regions. Planetary NPP shows an overall increase of 0.11 ± 0.13 PgC yr −1 (P = 0.05) from 2003 to 2021, driven by a significant terrestrial enhancement of 0.20 ± 0.07 PgC yr −1 (P < 0.001) and partially offset by an oceanic decline of −0.12 ± 0.12 PgC yr −1 (P = 0.07). While land contributes to the strong upwards NPP trend, the interannual variability in global NPP is predominantly driven by the ocean, especially during strong El Niño–Southern Oscillation events. Our findings highlight the resilience and potential vulnerability of biosphere primary productivity in a warming climate, calling for integrated land–ocean monitoring and assessment to support climate mitigation initiatives.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

MetaFlux: Meta-learning global carbon fluxes from sparse spatiotemporal observations

We provide a global, long-term carbon flux dataset of gross primary production and ecosystem respiration generated using meta-learning, called MetaFlux. The idea behind meta-learning stems from the need to learn efficiently given sparse data by learning how to learn broad features across tasks to better infer other poorly sampled ones. Using meta-trained ensemble of deep models, we generate global carbon products on daily and monthly timescales at a 0.25-degree spatial resolution from 2001 to 2021, through a combination of reanalysis and remote-sensing products. Site-level validation finds that MetaFlux ensembles have lower validation error by 5–7% compared to their non-meta-trained counterparts. In addition, they are more robust to extreme observations, with 4–24% lower errors. We also checked for seasonality, interannual variability, and correlation to solar-induced fluorescence of the upscaled product and found that MetaFlux outperformed other machine-learning based carbon product, especially in the tropics and semi-arids by 10–40%. Overall, MetaFlux can be used to study a wide range of biogeochemical processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Forty-year hydropower generation reanalysis for Conterminous United States

First published in 2022, the RectifHyd dataset provides hydrologically consistent estimates of monthly net generation for approximately 1,500 hydropower plants in the United States, addressing a gap in industrial surveys that have collected monthly generation data from only ~10% of plants post-2003. Here we present RectifHydPlus—an extended and enhanced dataset that improves on both the proxy information and temporal downscaling methodology adopted in RectifHyd. In addition to providing updated estimates of historical monthly generation for 590 plants with >10 MW nameplate capacity from 1980 through 2019, RectifHydPlus adds a hydrological control dataset that isolates the influence of historical water availability on generation. The new hydrological control dataset is suited to applications seeking to represent the capabilities of the contemporary fleet subject to historical interannual variability in climate. RectifHydPlus also includes a forty-year, daily-resolution, spill-adjusted water release time series for each dam, allowing users to aggregate generation estimates to the desired temporal resolution.

Hydroelectricity↗
DOE OSTI2020

Phenological responses of temperate and boreal trees to warming depend on ambient spring temperatures, leaf habit, and geographic range

Changes in plant phenology associated with climate change have been observed globally. What is poorly known is whether and how phenological responses to climate warming will differ from year to year, season to season, habitat to habitat, or species to species. Here, we present 5 y of phenological responses to experimental warming for 10 subboreal tree species. Research took place in the open-air B4WarmED experiment in Minnesota. The design is a two habitat (understory and open) × three warming treatments (ambient, +1.7 °C, +3.4 °C) factorial at two sites. Phenology was measured twice weekly during the growing seasons of 2009 through 2013. We found significant interannual variation in the effect of warming and differences among species in response to warming that relate to geographic origin and plant functional group. Moreover, responses to experimental temperature variation were similar to responses to natural temperature variation. Warming advanced the date of budburst more in early compared to late springs, suggesting that to simulate interannual variability in climate sensitivity of phenology, models should employ process-based or continuous development approaches. Differences among species in timing of budburst were also greater in early compared to late springs. Our results suggest that climate change—which will make most springs relatively “early”—could lead to a future with more variable phenology among years and among species, with consequences including greater risk of inappropriately early leafing and altered interactions among species.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Interannual precipitation controls on soil CO 2 fluxes in high elevation conifer and aspen forests

Abstract Long-term soil CO 2 emission measurements are necessary for detecting trends and interannual variability in the terrestrial carbon cycle. Such records are becoming increasingly valuable as ecosystems experience altered environmental conditions associated with climate change. From 2013 to 2021, we continuously measured soil CO 2 concentrations in the two dominant high elevation forest types, mixed conifer and aspen, in the upper Colorado River basin. We quantified the soil CO 2 flux during the summer months, and found that the mean and total CO 2 flux in both forests was related to the prior winter’s snowfall and current summer’s rainfall, with greater sensitivity to rainfall. We observed a decline in surface soil CO 2 production, which we attributed to warming and a decrease in amount and frequency of summer rains. Our results demonstrate strong precipitation control on the soil CO 2 flux in mountainous regions, a finding which has important implications for carbon cycling under future environmental change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evaluation of daily gridded climate products using in situ FLUXNET data and tree growth modeling

Gridded climate data products have facilitated research in climate and ecology by providing meteorological data continuously across large spatial scales. However, the sensitivity of scientific outcomes to dataset choice remains poorly understood, and evaluation using station-based records can favor datasets built heavily on weather stations. Here, we evaluate seven high-resolution daily gridded datasets covering the contiguous United States using independent meteorology from the FLUXNET2015 dataset, with a focus on the implications of dataset choice for process-based tree growth modeling. We find that gridded products tend to capture temperature accurately while consistently overestimating the magnitude and frequency of precipitation and its extremes. Moreover, datasets vary in how they define a ‘day,’ which significantly affects temporal alignment with FLUXNET2015 observations. Despite differences among the datasets, the interannual variability in tree ring simulations is insensitive to dataset choice, likely because daily-scale biases are averaged out through accumulated growth across several months. However, inaccuracies in temperature and precipitation can significantly bias modeled xylem cell production, with systematically higher annual precipitation in the gridded datasets leading to greater xylem production compared to simulations using in situ data. Our results suggest that model applications, especially those that integrate to time scales longer than one day, are likely insensitive to climate dataset choice, but applications that are sensitive to daily climate variations or to absolute climate values need to carefully consider biases in gridded climate products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Earlier snowmelt increases the strength of the carbon sink in montane meadows unequally across the growing season

1. Warming temperatures are changing winters, leading to earlier snowmelt. This shift can lead to an earlier and potentially longer growing season, which in turn may affect various plant-mediated ecosystem functions. Despite its relevance in the carbon cycle, we still know little about how earlier snowmelt impacts the carbon balance in ecosystems over the growing season, for example, does it only shift phenology, or does it affect the overall carbon uptake? Most studies rely on interannual variability in snowmelt timing, making it difficult to isolate snowmelt effects from other confounding variables, for example, temperature and moisture anomalies. To address this uncertainty, we investigated how experimentally advancing snowmelt affects the carbon cycling of montane meadows across the growing season. 2. We experimentally advanced the snowmelt date in a montane meadow by approximately 12 days and collected data every 2 weeks throughout the growing season, including net ecosystem exchange (NEE), gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), plant composition, and shrub, graminoid, and forb biomass. 3. Early in the growing season, GPP was higher in the early snowmelt plots, though this effect decreased as the growing season progressed. Our modelling of cumulative NEE showed a possible 22% increase in the carbon sink strength with earlier snowmelt. The effect was strongest in the early spring and diminished as the growing season progressed, with control plots being a greater carbon sink in the later season. Graminoid biomass was 47% higher in plots with earlier snowmelt, but there was no change in total biomass. 4. Synthesis. As winters warm and snowmelt occurs earlier, plant productivity will shift earlier in the growing season, and montane meadows may become a stronger carbon sink. However, this effect will differ seasonally, altering the carbon balance in montane meadows.

carbon cycle↗
DOE OSTI2022

Climate Dynamics Preceding Summer Forest Fires in California and the Extreme Case of 2018

Recent record-breaking wildfire seasons in California prompt an investigation into the climate patterns that typically precede anomalous summer burned forest area. Using burned-area data from the U.S. Forest Service’s Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) product and climate data from the fifth major global reanalysis produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5) over 1984–2018, relationships between the interannual variability of antecedent climate anomalies and July California burned area are spatially and temporally characterized. Lag correlations show that antecedent high vapor pressure deficit (VPD), high temperatures, frequent extreme high temperature days, low precipitation, high subsidence, high geopotential height, low soil moisture, and low snowpack and snowmelt anomalies all correlate significantly with July California burned area as far back as the January before the fire season. Seasonal regression maps indicate that a global midlatitude atmospheric wave train in late winter is associated with anomalous July California burned area. July 2018, a year with especially high burned area, was to some extent consistent with the general patterns revealed by the regressions: low winter precipitation and high spring VPD preceded the extreme burned area. However, geopotential height anomaly patterns were distinct from those in the regressions. Extreme July heat likely contributed to the extent of the fires ignited that month, even though extreme July temperatures do not historically significantly correlate with July burned area. While the 2018 antecedent climate conditions were typical of a high-burned-area year, they were not extreme, demonstrating the likely limits of statistical prediction of extreme fire seasons and the need for individual case studies of extreme years.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Interseasonal Connections between the Timing of the Stratospheric Final Warming and Arctic Sea Ice

Connections across seasons in atmospheric circulation and sea ice have long been sought to advance seasonal prediction. This study presents a link between the springtime stratosphere and Arctic sea ice in summer through autumn. The polar stratospheric vortex dominates the winter stratosphere before breaking down each spring, which is called the stratospheric final warming, as solar radiation returns to the pole. Interannual variability of this breakdown is dynamically driven, leading to different springtime tropospheric and surface circulation patterns. To examine the different impacts of delayed and early final warmings, a multimodel composite was generated from selected CMIP5 models. Additionally, regressions were performed on JRA-55 against an index of springtime polar vortex strength. In both the multimodel composites and reanalysis regressions, significant anomalies in sea ice thickness persist several months following an anomalous timing of the final warming. A later final warming or stronger springtime polar stratospheric vortex leads to negative sea ice thickness anomalies in the East Siberian Sea and positive anomalies in the Beaufort Sea in comparison with an earlier final warming or weaker polar vortex. The spring polar stratospheric vortex is related to spring polar surface circulation patterns. The winds associated with this pattern induce anomalous sea ice motion, moving ice from the East Siberian Sea toward the Beaufort Sea. Reduced sea ice in the East Siberian Sea is linked to anomalous warmth over this region in autumn. Our results suggest that the timing of the stratospheric final warming exerts an influence on the tropospheric circulation and sea ice through autumn, which has implications for seasonal climate prediction.

Kelleher, Michael↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Role of Background Meridional Moisture Gradient on the Propagation of the MJO over the Maritime Continent

This study investigates the role of the background meridional moisture gradient (MMG) on the propagation of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) across the Maritime Continent (MC) region. It is found that the interannual variability of the seasonal mean MMG over the southern MC area is associated with the meridional expansion and contraction of the moist area in the vicinity of the MC. Sea surface temperature anomalies associated with relatively high and low seasonal mean MMG exhibit patterns that resemble those of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Therefore, by contrasting the years with anomalously low and high MMG, we show that MJO propagation through the MC is enhanced (suppressed) in years with higher (lower) seasonal mean MMG, although the effect is less robust when MMG anomalies are weak. Column-integrated moisture budget analysis further shows that sufficiently large MMG anomalies affect MJO activity by modulating the meridional advection of the mean moisture via MJO wind anomalies. Our results suggest that the background moisture distribution has a strong control over the propagation characteristics of the MJO in the MC region.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

On the Correspondence between Seasonal Forecast Biases and Long-Term Climate Biases in Sea Surface Temperature

In this paper, the correspondence between mean sea surface temperature (SST) biases in retrospective seasonal forecasts (hindcasts) and long-term climate simulations from five global climate models is examined to diagnose the degree to which systematic SST biases develop on seasonal time scales. The hindcasts are from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble and the climate simulations are from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The analysis suggests that most robust climatological SST biases begin to form within 6 months of a realistically initialized integration, although the growth rate varies with location, time, and model. In regions with large biases, interannual variability and ensemble spread is much smaller than the climatological bias. Additional ensemble hindcasts of the Community Earth System Model with a different initialization method suggest that initial conditions do matter for the initial bias growth, but the overall global bias patterns are similar after 6 months. A hindcast approach is more suitable to study biases over the tropics and sub-tropics than over the extra-tropics because of smaller initial biases and faster bias growth. The rapid emergence of SST biases makes it likely that fast processes with times scales shorter than the seasonal time scales in the atmosphere and upper ocean are responsible for a substantial part of the climatological SST biases. Studying the growth of biases may provide important clues to the causes and ultimately the amelioration of these biases. Further, initialized seasonal hindcasts can profitably be used in the development of high-resolution coupled ocean-atmosphere models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Benchmarking performance changes in the simulation of extratropical modes of variability across CMIP generations

In this work, we evaluate extratropical modes of variability in the three most recent phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3, 5, and 6) to gauge improvement of climate models over time. A suite of high-level metrics is employed to objectively evaluate how well climate models simulate the qobserved Northern Annular Mode (NAM), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific North America pattern (PNA), Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO). We apply a Common Basis Function (CBF) approach that projects model anomalies onto observed empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs), together with the traditional EOF approach, to CMIP Historical and AMIP models. We find simulated spatial patterns of those modes have been significantly improved in the newer models, although the skill improvement is sensitive to the mode and season considered. We identify some potential contributions to the pattern improvement of certain modes (e.g., the Southern Hemisphere jet and High-top vertical coordinate), however the performance changes are likely attributed to gradual improvement of the base climate and multiple relevant processes. Less performance improvement is evident in the mode amplitude of these modes and systematic overestimation of the mode amplitude in spring remains in the newer climate models. We find that the post-dominant season amplitude errors in atmospheric modes are not limited to coupled runs but are often already evident in AMIP simulations. This suggests that rectifying the egregious post-dominant season amplitude errors found in many models can be addressed in an atmospheric-only framework making it more tractable to address in the model development process.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗