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NASA NTRS1995

Application of IEM model on soil moisture and surface roughness estimation

Monitoring spatial and temporal changes of soil moisture are of importance to hydrology, meteorology, and agriculture. This paper reports a result on study of using L-band SAR imagery to estimate soil moisture and surface roughness for bare fields. Due to limitations of the Small Perturbation Model, it is difficult to apply this model on estimation of soil moisture and surface roughness directly. In this study, we show a simplified model derived from the Integral Equation Model for estimation of soil moisture and surface roughness. We show a test of this model using JPL L-band AIRSAR data.

Shi, Jiancheng↗

DOE OSTI2022

Anthropogenically driven climate and landscape change effects on inland water carbon dynamics: What have we learned and where are we going?

Inland waters serve as important hydrological connections between the terrestrial landscape and oceans but are often overlooked in global carbon (C) budgets and Earth System Models. Terrestrially derived C entering inland waters from the watershed can be transported to oceans but over 83% is either buried in sediments or emitted to the atmosphere before reaching oceans. Anthropogenic pressures such as climate and landscape changes are altering the magnitude of these C fluxes in inland waters. Here, we synthesize the most recent estimates of C fluxes and the differential contributions across inland waterbody types (rivers, streams, lakes, reservoirs, and ponds), including recent measurements that incorporate improved sampling methods, small waterbodies, and dried areas. Across all inland waters, we report a global C emission estimate of 4.40 Pg C/year (95% confidence interval: 3.95–4.85 Pg C/year), representing a 13% increase from the most recent estimate. In this work, we also review the mechanisms by which the most globally widespread anthropogenically driven climate and landscape changes influence inland water C fluxes. The majority of these drivers are expected to influence terrestrial C inputs to inland waters due to alterations in terrestrial C quality and quantity, hydrological pathways, and biogeochemical processing. We recommend four research priorities for the future study of anthropogenic alterations to inland water C fluxes: (1) before-and-after measurements of C fluxes associated with climate change events and landscape changes, (2) better quantification of C input from land, (3) improved assessment of spatial coverage and contributions of small inland waterbodies to C fluxes, and (4) integration of dried and drawdown areas to global C flux estimates. Improved measurements of inland water C fluxes and quantification of uncertainty in these estimates will be vital to understanding both terrestrial C losses and the “moving target” of inland water C emissions in response to rapid and complex anthropogenic pressures.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2017

New Perspectives on Blowing Snow Transport, Sublimation, and Layer Thermodynamic Structure over Antarctica

Blowing snow over Antarctica is a widespread and frequent event. Satellite remote sensing using lidar has shown that blowing snow occurs over 70% of the time over large areas of Antarctica in winter. The transport and sublimation of blowing snow are important terms in the ice sheet mass balance equation and the latter is also an important part of the hydrological cycle. Until now the only way to estimate the magnitude of these processes was through model parameterization. We present a technique that uses direct satellite observations of blowing snow and model (MERRA-2) temperature and humidity fields to compute both transport and sublimation of blowing snow over Antarctica for the period 2006 to 2016. The results show a larger annual continent-wide integrated sublimation than current published estimates and a significant transport of snow from continent to ocean. The talk will also include the lidar backscatter structure of blowing snow layers that often reach heights of 200 to 300 m as well as the first dropsonde measurements of temperature, moisture and wind through blowing snow layers.

Palm, Steve↗

NASA NTRS1985

Building a functional, integrated GIS/remote sensing resource analysis and planning system

To be an effective tool for resource analysis and planning, a geographic information system (GIS) needs to be integrated with a digital remote sensing capability. To be truly functional, the paired system must be driven by grass roots local needs. A case study couched in a Soil Conservation District in northern Utah is presented. Agency representatives determined that the most fundamental data sets to be entered into the GIS system analysis system in the first round were: land use/land cover; geomorphic/soil unit data; hydrologic unit data; and digital terrain. The least expensive and best ways to obtain these data were determined. Data were acquired and formatted to enter the state's PRIME/ARC-INFO GIS, and are being interrogated for resource management decisions related to such issues as agricultural preservation, urban expansion, soil erosion control, and dam siting.

Ridd, M. K.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Semi-automated Design of Artificial Intelligence Earth Science Models

Prediction and observation of water cycles involve not only patterns isolated in space and time, but rather modeling complex spatio-temporal relationships across multiple sources of data and domains. For instance, Evapotranspiration (ET) and Leaf Area Indexes (LAI) are two critical components in DOE’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). Accurate assessments of ET and LAI are critical for understanding hydrological processes, deforestation, crop yield, and irrigation impacts. However, current ET estimates for global simulations are available at very coarse spatial resolution. They are usually derived from satellite data based on broad plant functional types (PFT), which fail to capture the fine-scale variations due to change in vegetation type across the globe. Within this context and in light of the data-model integration challenges highlighted in the EESSD Strategic Plan, the new era of AI model development for geosciences calls for data-driven methods that provide domain scientists with estimations of parameters such as PFT and LAI in an efficient, interpretable, and easy-to-operate manner.

Ambrozio Dias, Philipe↗

NASA NTRS1999

Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction in Climate Changes

The diagram, which attests the El Nino teleconnection observed by the NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) in 1997, is an example of the results of our research in air-sea interaction - the core component of our three-part contribution to the Climate Variability Program. We have established an interplay among scientific research, which turns spacebased data into knowledge, a push in instrument technology, which improves observations of climate variability, and an information system, which produces and disseminates new data to support our scientific research. Timothy Liu led the proposal for advanced technology, in response to the NASA Post-2002 Request for Information. The sensor was identified as a possible mission for continuous ocean surface wind measurement at higher spatial resolution, and with the unique capability to measure ocean surface salinity. He is participating in the Instrument Incubator Program to improve the antenna technology, and is initiating a study to integrate the concept on Japanese missions. He and his collaborators have set up a system to produce and disseminate high level (gridded) ocean surface wind/stress data from NSCAT and European missions. The data system is being expanded to produce real-time gridded ocean surface winds from Quikscat, and precipitation and evaporation from the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission. It will form the basis for a spacebased data analysis system which will include momentum, heat and water fluxes. The study on 1997 El Nino teleconnection illustrates our interdisciplinary and multisensor approach to study climate variability. The diagram shows that the collapse of trade wind and the westerly wind anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific led to the equatorial ocean warming. The equatorial wind anomalies are connected to the anomalous cyclonic wind pattern in the northeast Pacific. The anomalous warming along the west coast of the United States is the result of the movement of the pre-existing warm sea surface temperature anomalies with the cyclonic wind anomalies toward the coast. The results led to a new study which identifies decadal ocean variations in the Northeast Pacific. Three studies of oceanic responses to wind forcing caused by the seasonal change of monsoons, the passage of a typhoon, and the 1997 El Nino, were successfully conducted. Besides wind forcing, we continue to examine new techniques for estimating thermal and hydrologic fluxes, through the inverse ocean mixed-layer model, through divergence of atmospheric water transport, and by direct retrieval from radiances observed by microwave radiometers. Greenhouse warming has been linked to water vapor measured by two spaceborne sensors in two studies. In the first study, strong baroclinicity and deep convection were found to transport water vapor to the upper atmosphere and increase greenhouse trapping over the storm tracks of the North Pacific and Atlantic. In another study, the annual cycle of greenhouse warming were related to sea surface temperature (SST) and integrated water vapor, and the latitudinal dependence of the magnitudes and phases of the annual cycles were compared.

Liu, W. Timothy↗

DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity of Atmospheric River Vapor Transport and Precipitation to Uniform Sea Surface Temperature Increases

Abstract Filaments of intense vapor transport called atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for the majority of poleward vapor transport in the midlatitudes. Despite their importance to the hydrologic cycle, there remain many unanswered questions about changes to ARs in a warming climate. In this study we perform a series of escalating uniform SST increases (+2, +4, and +6K, respectively) in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 in an aquaplanet configuration to evaluate the thermodynamic and dynamical response of AR vapor content, transport, and precipitation to warming SSTs. We find that AR column integrated water vapor (IWV) is especially sensitive to SST and increases by 6.3–9.7% per degree warming despite decreasing relative humidity through much of the column. Further analysis provides a more nuanced view of AR IWV changes: Since SST warming is modest compared to that in the midtroposphere, computing fractional changes in IWV with respect to SST results in finding spuriously large increases. Meanwhile, results here show that AR IWV transport increases relatively uniformly with temperature and at consistently lower rates than IWV, as modulated by systematically decreasing low‐level wind speeds. Similarly, changes in AR precipitation are related to a compensatory relationship between enhanced near‐surface moisture and damped vertical motions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Community-Engaged Modeling of Urban Flood Adaptation Pathways

Climate change is intensifying the hydrologic cycle, leading to more frequent and severe rainfall-driven (pluvial) flooding in urban areas. In the mid-Atlantic US cities, aging and under-designed stormwater infrastructure is increasingly strained by these events, resulting in recurring damage to property and disruptions to transportation networks. In this study, we combine community engagement with hydrologic modeling to develop and evaluate potential urban flood adaptation strategies. Over a three-year period, local technical experts and community representatives met regularly to discuss flooding concerns, identify priorities, and co-develop adaptation strategies. These discussions informed the development of an urban flooding model (EPA Storm Water Management Model) for the Baltimore Harbor watershed, the focus location of this study. The flooding model integrates complex surface and subsurface stormwater infrastructure data, local expert knowledge, and community insights. We simulate stakeholder-prioritized adaptations, such as green and gray infrastructure strategies. Model results demonstrate that enhanced infrastructure maintenance is the most effective adaptation for reducing flood depths, but has varied effects across the watershed, and can increase flooding in some locations. Spatially concentrated greening provides limited benefit to the watershed as a whole, but moderate benefit in community priority areas. Together, these adaptations have the potential to reduce flood depths by as much as 58% in some locations, greatly reducing property damage and mobility impacts, primary concerns of stakeholders. Future work will implement robust optimization tools to search for adaptations which meet stakeholder objectives and perform highly under varied future climate conditions. This work contributes to the expanding literature on collaborative modeling and demonstrates that community-engaged approaches can enhance model credibility and generate more actionable insights for communities seeking to strengthen climate resilience.

Spangler, Ava [Pennsylvania State University] (ORC↗

DOE OSTI2026

Community-Informed Urban Flood Modeling for Impact Mitigation

Baltimore MD↗

DOE OSTI2023

Hydropower representation in water and energy system models: a review of divergences and call for reconciliation

Abstract Reservoir-based hydropower systems represent key interactions between water and energy systems and are being transformed under policy initiatives driven by increasing water and energy demand, the desire to reduce environmental impacts, and interacting effects of climate change. Such policies are often guided by complex system models, whereby divergence in system representations can potentially translate to incompatible planning outcomes, thereby undermining any planning that may rely on them. We review different approaches and assumptions in hydropower representation in water and energy systems. While the models and issues are relevant globally, the review focuses on applications in California given its extensive development of energy and water models for policy planning, but discusses the extent to which these observations apply to other regions. Structurally, both water-driven and energy-driven management models are similar. However, in energy models, hydropower is often represented as a single-priority output. Water management models typically allocate water for competing priorities, which are generally uninformed by dynamic electricity load demand, and often result in a lower priority for hydropower. In water models, constraints are increasingly resolved for non-energy components (e.g. inflow hydrology and non-energy water demand); few analogues exist for energy models. These limitations may result in inadequate representations of each respective sector, and vastly different planning outcomes for the same facilities between the two different sectors. These divergent modeling approaches manifest themselves in California where poorly reconciled outcomes may affect decisions in hydropower licensing, electricity grid flexibility and decarbonization, and planning for environmental water. Fully integrated water-energy models are computationally intensive and specific to certain regions, but better representation of each domain in respective efforts would help reconcile divergences in planning and management efforts related to hydropower across energy and water systems.

Rheinheimer, David E. (ORCID:0000000315259069)↗

DOE OSTI2022

GUC CSU X-Band Precipitation Radar Surface QUantitatIve pRecipitation Estimation (SQUIRE)

For the Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) campaign, a scanning X-Band dual-polarimetric radar provided by Colorado State University (CSU) was deployed to estimate precipitation within the Upper Colorado River Basin. In order to evaluate precipitation estimates from the CSU X-Band Radar (XPRECIPRADAR), Surface QUantitatIve pRecipitation Estimation (SQUIRE) was created to provide the SAIL community with a gridded dataset of precipitation estimates for comparison with hydrology and atmospheric models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2004

The International Global Network of Geodetic Fiducial Stations

Scientific need and technological opportunity require that we move toward implementing a global network of geodetic fiducial stations which feature co-located SLR, VLBI, GNSS, and DORIS instrumentation. Earth science of the next decade will require more accurate global change measurements of sea level topography, sea level change, polar ice mass balance, hydrological and atmospheric mass flux. and topographic deformation, real time mm scale navigation and precision time transfer on a global scale. These scientific requirements have been translated into a goal of mm scale annual stability for the terrestrial reference frame, earth orientation parameters, as well as the orbit and clock determinations tbr the GNSS systems. To meet these challenges, the four geodetic observing systems must be more tightly integrated in technology, location, and analysis. NASA strongly supports the objectives of the IGGOS initiative vis NASA's National Geodetic Observatory and INDIGO programs. The Global networks of GNSS, SLR. and VLBI observatories are for the most part poorly suited for these new demands. These important geodetic networks have evolved with little planning yet these systems are providing essential measurements to a wide swath of society. New signal structures in the GPS and the developing Galileo GNSS will soon require replacement of the GNSS receivers. The SLR network is poorly distributed globally, requires labor intensive observations and analysis, and for the most part relies upon antiquated technology. The VLBI observatories utilize large radio telescopes in remote regions that are poorly distributed globally. Co-location of these networks is sparse and co-location errors contribute significantly to the observing error spectrum. Increasing use of the S and X band by commercial and other government services will also contribute to increased observational errors. The time is upon us for an international effort to develop an optimized global geodetic fiducial network of twelve or more integrated automated geodetic observatories that will provide in near real time high density mea.surements of Earth orientation, geodetic positioning, and GNSS system monitoring. The strategic goal for the optimized global fiducial network should be efficient autonomous operation, real time data streaming to analysis centers with an integrated near real time analysis capability for all four observing systems. These goals are achievable in the next decade given the dramatic technological improvements in all geodetic systems. For VLBI, the BKG TIGO might be viewed as a preliminary prototype of technology for fundamental stations. Mark 5, PC-VSI. e-VLBI broadband development efforts are laying the groundwork to reduce the aperture of the VLBI antennas and to allow for precision mm level co-location of observing systems. Operating costs and enhanced accuracy would accrue from the elimination of hydrogen maser clocks using double differencing, GNSS time transfer technology, GHz broadband recording, real time analysis, and mm wavelength VLBI observations. A global geodetic fiducial network will not be realizable without international efforts and the support of the four services.

LaBrecque, John↗

DOE OSTI2025

Novel Deep Learning Transformer Model for Short to Sub‐Seasonal Streamflow Forecast

Accurate short-to-subseasonal streamflow forecasts are becoming crucial for effective water management in an increasingly variable climate. However, streamflow forecast remains challenging over extended lead times, uncertainty in meteorological inputs, and increased frequency and variability in extreme weather and climate events. We implemented a Future Time Series Transformer (FutureTST) model for streamflow forecasting that separately integrates past meteorological and streamflow data while incorporating future weather conditions. FutureTST achieves a mean Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.82 to 0.67 for 1- to 30-day streamflow forecasts. Incorporating upstream streamflow information improved forecast accuracy by up to 10%. During real-time forecast, FutureTST maintains higher forecast skills of 9.03 for 1-day and 5.74 for 14-day forecasts. In contrast, calibrated process-based hydrological model forecasts become unreliable beyond a 4-day lead time. Our findings demonstrate the potential of FutureTST as a reliable streamflow forecasting tool that offers a valuable addition to operational flood monitoring systems and climate-resilient decision-making.

Ambika, Anukesh Krishnankutty [Oak Ridge National ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Learning the factors controlling mineral dissolution in three-dimensional fracture networks: applications in geologic carbon sequestration

We perform a set of high-fidelity simulations of geochemical reactions within three-dimensional discrete fracture networks (DFN) and use various machine learning techniques to determine the primary factors controlling mineral dissolution. The DFN are partially filled with quartz that gradually dissolves until quasi-steady state conditions are reached. At this point, we measure the quartz remaining in each fracture within the domain as our primary quantity of interest. We observe that a primary sub-network of fractures exists, where the quartz has been fully dissolved out. This reduction in resistance to flow leads to increased flow channelization and reduced solute travel times. However, depending on the DFN topology and the rate of dissolution, we observe substantial variability in the volume of quartz remaining within fractures outside of the primary subnetwork. This variability indicates an interplay between the fracture network structure and geochemical reactions. We characterize the features controlling these processes by developing a machine learning framework to extract their relevant impact. Specifically, we use a combination of high-fidelity simulations with a graph-based approach to study geochemical reactive transport in a complex fracture network to determine the key features that control dissolution. We consider topological, geometric and hydrological features of the fracture network to predict the remaining quartz in quasi-steady state. We found that the dissolution reaction rate constant of quartz and the distance to the primary sub-network in the fracture network are the two most important features controlling the amount of quartz remaining. This study is a first step towards characterizing the parameters that control carbon mineralization using an approach with integrates computational physics and machine learning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing Sediment Inputs into the Shoshone River in Wyoming to Determine Areas for Protection and Restoration Practices

In 2016, a routine repair operation at the Willwood Dam released tons of built-up sediment into the Shoshone River, polluting the river and killing thousands of fish. This release greatly concerned the communities that rely on the river for farming, recreation, and tourism. In partnership with the Wyoming Department of Environmental Quality (WDEQ), Shoshone River Partners, and the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Wyoming-Montana Water Science Center, this multipart project illustrated the application of high-resolution satellite imagery and hydrological modeling techniques to identify major tributaries contributing to sediment influxes into the Shoshone River between the Buffalo Bill Dam and the Willwood Dam. The team used PlanetScope and Sentinel-2 Multi-Spectral Instrument (MSI) satellite images to assess changes in the surface reflectance of the river in response to precipitation events. To determine these storm events, the team selected dates of interest using Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Integrated Multi-Spectral Retrieval (IMERG) and gauge precipitation data from the Global Historical Climatology Network Daily (GHCNd). The continuation of this research further quantified sediment influx in the Shoshone River following snowfall and melt events using the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The precipitation analysis and sediment contribution maps helped the partner organizations prioritize their current decision making and best management practices to specific sites along the river. The results demonstrated the feasibility of using PlanetScope data for categorizing sediment in the Shoshone River.

Caroline Williams↗

NASA NTRS2024

Precipitation -17 O-Excess Altered During Tropical Convection: Evidence From Monsoon Cold Surges in Singapore

Despite the recent recognition of -17 O-excess as a promising new tracer for hydrological processes, our knowledge of the control mechanisms underlying -17 O-excess in tropical regions remains limited. To understand how microphysical processes during tropical convection affect precipitation isotope ratios, particularly -17 O-excess, in Singapore, we collected precipitation samples at minute intervals from six rain events associated with cold surges during the Northeast Monsoon seasons and analyzed their triple oxygen isotopes. Our results show that precipitation δ -18 O decreases in the convective zones and then gradually increases in the stratiform zones, while d-excess exhibits an inverse trend. This correlation between δ -18 O and d-excess indicates that rain evaporation plays a crucial role in regulating precipitation isotopes. Moreover, the rain events with a higher upstream rainout amount have lower δ -18 O and higher -17 O-excess values, suggesting that precipitation δ -18 O and -17 O-excess likely reflect the integrated upstream convective activity. Microphysical processes associated with upstream convection, such as rain evaporation and vapor recycling, are potential mechanisms that increase -17 O-excess values along moisture transport pathways for a rain event, and hence, undermine the effectiveness of -17 O-excess as a tracer of moisture source humidity. Contrary to the negative correlation observed in monthly precipitation, there is generally a positive correlation between d-excess and -17 O-excess at the event scale. However, this correlation weakens as convective rain intensifies, suggesting that stronger convection can attenuate the positive correlation between d-excess and -17 O-excess. Therefore, it is crucial to consider how tropical convection alters -17 O-excess when utilizing this tracer to interpret atmospheric dynamics and hydrological processes.

tropical weather systems↗

NASA NTRS2014

NMME Monthly / Seasonal Forecasts for NASA SERVIR Applications Science

This work details use of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) experimental forecasts as drivers for Decision Support Systems (DSSs) in the NASA / USAID initiative, SERVIR (a Spanish acronym meaning "to serve"). SERVIR integrates satellite observations, ground-based data and forecast models to monitor and forecast environmental changes and to improve response to natural disasters. Through the use of DSSs whose "front ends" are physically based models, the SERVIR activity provides a natural testbed to determine the extent to which NMME monthly to seasonal projections enable scientists, educators, project managers and policy implementers in developing countries to better use probabilistic outlooks of seasonal hydrologic anomalies in assessing agricultural / food security impacts, water availability, and risk to societal infrastructure. The multi-model NMME framework provides a "best practices" approach to probabilistic forecasting. The NMME forecasts are generated at resolution more coarse than that required to support DSS models; downscaling in both space and time is necessary. The methodology adopted here applied model output statistics where we use NMME ensemble monthly projections of sea-surface temperature (SST) and precipitation from 30 years of hindcasts with observations of precipitation and temperature for target regions. Since raw model forecasts are well-known to have structural biases, a cross-validated multivariate regression methodology (CCA) is used to link the model projected states as predictors to the predictands of the target region. The target regions include a number of basins in East and South Africa as well as the Ganges / Baramaputra / Meghna basin complex. The MOS approach used address spatial downscaling. Temporal disaggregation of monthly seasonal forecasts is achieved through use of a tercile bootstrapping approach. We interpret the results of these studies, the levels of skill by several metrics, and key uncertainties.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

NASA NTRS2018

GEOS-5 Seasonal Forecast System: ENSO Prediction Skill and Bias

The GEOS-5 AOGCM known as S2S-1.0 has been in service from June 2012 through January 2018 (Borovikov et al. 2017). The atmospheric component of S2S-1.0 is Fortuna-2.5, the same that was used for the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), but with adjusted parameterization of moist processes and turbulence. The ocean component is the Modular Ocean Model version 4 (MOM4). The sea ice component is the Community Ice CodE, version 4 (CICE). The land surface model is a catchment-based hydrological model coupled to the multi-layer snow model. The AGCM uses a Cartesian grid with a 1 deg × 1.25 deg horizontal resolution and 72 hybrid vertical levels with the upper most level at 0.01 hPa. OGCM nominal resolution of the tripolar grid is 1/2 deg, with a meridional equatorial refinement to 1/4 deg. In the coupled model initialization, selected atmospheric variables are constrained with MERRA. The Goddard Earth Observing System integrated Ocean Data Assimilation System (GEOS-iODAS) is used for both ocean state and sea ice initialization. SST, T and S profiles and sea ice concentration were assimilated.

GEOS-↗