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At least 505 records · Page 28

Acoustic Tomography of the Atmosphere: A Large-Eddy Simulation Sensitivity Study

Accurate measurement of atmospheric turbulent fluctuations is critical for understanding environmental dynamics and improving models in applications such as wind energy. Advanced remote sensing technologies are essential for capturing instantaneous velocity and temperature fluctuations. Acoustic tomography (AT) offers a promising approach that utilizes sound travel times between an array of transducers to reconstruct turbulence fields. This study presents a systematic evaluation of the time-dependent stochastic inversion (TDSI) algorithm for AT using synthetic travel-time measurements derived from large-eddy simulation (LES) fields under both neutral and convective atmospheric boundary-layer conditions. Unlike prior work that relied on field observations or idealized fields, the LES framework provides a ground-truth atmospheric state, enabling quantitative assessment of TDSI retrieval reliability, sensitivity to travel-time measurement noise, and dependence on covariance model parameters and temporal data integration. A detailed sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the best-fit model parameters, identify the tolerance thresholds for parameter mismatch, and establish a maximum spatial resolution. The TDSI algorithm successfully reconstructed large-scale velocity and temperature fluctuations with root mean square errors ( RMSE s) below 0.35 m/s and 0.12 K, respectively. Spectral analysis established a maximum spatial resolution of approximately 1.4 m, and reconstructions remained robust for travel-time measurement uncertainties up to 0.002 s. These findings provide critical insights into the operational limits of TDSI and inform future applications of AT for atmospheric turbulence characterization and system design.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Tools Assessing Performance (TAP) 2.0

Dmitry Duplyakin will be presenting on the latest research and results in the Tools Assessing Performance (TAP) 2.0 project. This presentation will include updates on the latest data the group has produced, integration of obstacle models in the computational pipeline for distributed wind siting, and the plans for the near-term analysis and validation efforts. The talk will acknowledge the work of collaborators from NREL and three other national labs - ANL, LANL, and PNNL - all contributing to this multi-year project.

distributed wind↗

Risk Model for EM Decision Support Toolsets

The Government Office of Accountability (GAO) has published several reports identifying the need for the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Environmental Management (EM) to address mounting costs for DoE's cleanup program. DOEEM could greatly benefit from independent decision tool-sets/models that would allow them to evaluate options and inform business decision at the enterprise level considering site-specific life cycle costs and system plans. Program goals: Develop a tool-set that enables EM to independently evaluate alternatives, assess outcomes from different contracting strategies, and inform critical decisions for the enterprise. Project goals: Adaption of a Risk Model for integration with complimentary tool-sets for project level decision making. Operational Events: Discrete event model that evaluates operational variables (e.g. capacity, throughput, maintenance constraints) and identify bottlenecks. Identifying and Bounding Project Risk: Identify risks that impact confidence in meeting goals (e.g. production). Life cycle Cost: Evaluate impacts of staffing levels, inventory, and capital investments on life cycle costs. Methods and approach: Monte Carlo Analysis is being executed to generate results: Input derives from Risk Register Data; Tied to Projected and Target Schedules; Incorporates float duration within the model. Assumes associated risk mitigation actions being completed within a timeline of five fiscal years. Metrics include: Confidence in Meeting Production Goal; Confidence in Safety Standards; Confidence in Continuous Operation; Other Metrics can be added as appropriate regarding specific site needs. The adapted risk model can be used as a stand alone decision tool or can be integrated complementary tool-sets (i.e. process and cost models) for project-specific decisions. These support tool-sets can then be integrated with others for site- and complex- level evaluations. Future work includes designing an adaptable and modular framework that would allow integration of multiple tool-sets for holistic and/or targeted evaluation of alternative strategies for decision making that could lead to risk and cost reduction across the enterprise.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Chapter 14: Sustainable Biomass Conversion Process Assessment

Process intensification and integration for sustainable design play an essential role in addressing and alleviating severe sustainable development challenges. It is prudent to evaluate a process design in its early stage development to ensure the process can achieve sustainability goals. The primary goal of a sustainability evaluation is to assess the impact of systems on areas sought to be protected and maintained over time, such as human well-being and ecosystems (Schaubroeck, T. and Rugani, B. (2017). A revision of what life cycle sustainability assessment should entail: towards modeling the net impact on human well-being. Journal of Industrial Ecology 21 (6): 1464-1477). Parenthetically, sustainable process design to convert biomass to fuels and chemicals plays an integral part in the bioeconomy sustainability. It is recognized that the integration of sustainability in process design is core to the mission in developing renewable fuels and should be considered a necessary practice in biorefinery design. This study demonstrates the use of Gauging Reaction Effectiveness for ENvironmental Sustainability of Chemistries with a multi-Objective Process Evaluator (GREENSCOPE) as a tool to help track progress on process sustainability performance attributed to conversion improvement. With the incorporation of a wide range of indicators, GREENSCOPE captures the multi-dimensional aspect of the process design and operation. As opposed to conventional techno-economic analysis and life cycle assessment (in which the focuses are limited to economic and environmental aspects), GREENSCOPE enables the consideration of process intensification and integration for sustainable design. A high-octane gasoline production from woody biomass feedstock is used as a case study to demonstrate the approach.

biomass↗

Examining Graphite Degradation in Molten Salt Environments: A Chemical, Physical, and Material Analysis

Molten-salt reactors (MSRs) are Generation IV nuclear reactors that use liquid salt as a coolant and/or fuel. In several MSR designs, graphite serves as a moderator and/or reflector. However, due to limited experimental data and operational experience, our understanding of graphite behavior in molten salt environments remains incomplete. This report aims to identify the degradation mechanisms of nuclear graphite in MSRs, detail the mechanisms of each factor, and provide an initial assessment of their impact on the structural integrity of graphite components. This assessment is based on an extensive literature review and insights from subject matter experts. Furthermore, given the limited data, a modeling strategy using existing Grizzly software is proposed for a more thorough analysis where appropriate. Additionally, it presents mitigation strategies where applicable. The report covers physical degradation mechanisms such as infiltration, erosion, and abrasion, as well as chemical degradation mechanisms including fluorination, intercalation, corrosion, and oxidation. Molten salt can infiltrate the porous structure of graphite, leading to several detrimental effects. Entrapment of fissile products within the graphite pores can cause radiation damage and could pose challenges in the handling and disposal of contaminated components. The differential thermal expansion between the infiltrated salt and graphite, along with internal stress from pressurized molten salt and volumetric heating, can compromise the structural integrity of graphite. To mitigate these effects, employing ultra-fine graphite grades and applying sealants and coatings are effective strategies. A computational model based on coupled solid mechanics and heat transfer phenomena could be used to predict the internal stresses using Grizzly software. In pebble-bed MSRs, graphite fuel pebbles can cause abrasion against reactor components due to friction and wear. The severity of wear is influenced by various factors such as temperature, environment, and the presence of lubricants. Tribological studies reveal that higher temperatures and molten salt environments, such as FLiBe, significantly reduce wear rates compared to dry conditions. Additionally, the chemical composition of the salt can further optimize graphite's tribological performance. Long-term wear effects can be modeled by incorporating surface defects into the geometry and predict stresses under thermal and radiation effects using Grizzly software. Chemical degradation of graphite in a molten salt environment can occur through fluorination and intercalation. Fluorination can occur via replacement of hydrogen or oxygen atoms, or at the active sites, but does not cause structural degradation. Intercalation, on the other hand, can lead to exfoliation, where layers of graphite separate and peel away, damaging the graphite. Protective coatings can enhance graphite's resistance to intercalation. Graphite generally exhibits good chemical stability in molten salt environments, though it can corrode under specific conditions, particularly in the presence of impurities or oxidants. Studies have shown that protective coatings, such as plasma-sprayed partially stabilized zirconia (PSZ), can effectively prevent such degradation. Corrosion behavior varies significantly with different graphite grades and coating applications, underscoring the need for detailed studies on uncoated and coated graphite to understand and mitigate corrosion mechanisms in MSRs. Research indicates that the presence of oxidants and impurities can accelerate graphite degradation in molten salts, making it essential to explore acceptable impurity limits. Oxidation is another critical degradation mechanism, leading to weight loss and structural damage due to the formation of CO and CO 2 from the reaction of carbon atoms with oxygen. This process creates new porosity and compromises graphite's integrity. While extensive research on graphite oxidation has been conducted for gas-cooled reactors, studies specific to MSRs are limited. Findings from the coal industry suggest that molten alkali metal salts can significantly accelerate graphite oxidation, a hypothesis worth exploring for fluoride salts in MSRs. Understanding oxidation behavior in MSRs is vital for developing protective measures. The analysis of post-irradiated graphite from the MSRE experiment demonstrated exceptional chemical compatibility with molten fluoride salt, suggesting that the extent of chemical attack on graphite largely depends on the salt's infiltration capability. Therefore, the use of ultra-fine grade graphite could help mitigate chemical degradation effects. Existing oxidation modeling capabilities in Grizzly, which use reaction-diffusion equations to model graphite-air interactions, could be adapted to simulate the chemical degradation effects of graphite in molten salt environments.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Transportation and System Analysis Collaborations in Support of a Federal Consolidated Interim Storage Facility

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Integrated Waste Management (IWM) program under the Office of Nuclear Energy is planning for the future transportation, storage, and eventual disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level radioactive waste (HLW) from nuclear power plant and waste custodian sites across the United States. To better enable informed decision-making regarding the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle, the IWM program has been sponsoring the development and application of system analysis tools capable of analyzing various options for managing SNF and HLW. With these tools, integrated waste management system (IWMS) architecture analyses are being conducted to support the future deployment of a comprehensive nuclear waste management system that considers all major back-end aspects of the nuclear fuel cycle (i.e., transportation, storage, and disposal). System analyses and assessments typically use these modeling and simulation tools to investigate implications of changes in various assumptions and parameters such as acceptance rates, receipt logic, facility capacities and capabilities, use of standardized canisters, start and stop dates of facilities, etc. The Next Generation System Analysis Model (NGSAM) is an agent-based simulation toolkit that is used for a system-level simulation and analysis focused on SNF management in the United States. NGSAM’s primary purpose is to provide a system analyst with capabilities to model the IWMS and gain insights into SNF and HLW management alternatives including the impact of system choices, associated cost estimates, and development of integrated yet flexible approaches. An analyst using NGSAM can define several factors like the number of storage facilities, capacity at each facility, transportation schedules, shipment rates, and other conditions. IWM is also developing the Stakeholder Tool for Assessing Radioactive Transportation (START). START is a web-based geospatial tool developed to provide the visualization and initial evaluation of transportation options associated with future SNF and HLW shipment planning and operations. This includes characterizing safety, economic, and environmental conditions at and in proximity to shipment origins as well as along prospective transportation routes. Information from the START tool can be presented/shared as maps, graphics, geospatial files, and tabular form to enable easy data representation and export functionality. The system analysis, NGSAM, and START teams have been working closely for several years before formalizing this collaboration. START provides the SNF transportation routing information for use in NGSAM. System analysts use the NGSAM tool to generate results (schedule, costs, infrastructure acquisitions, shipment rates, etc.). Subject-matter experts and system analysts work together to inform how NGSAM should model the waste management system. Specifically, this paper discusses the collaborations between the system analysis, NGSAM, and START teams and their accomplishments over the past year. Some examples of these efforts include calibrating and adding data to the START output files to meet NGSAM needs, gaining a better understanding of START data used in NGSAM as well as how updates in START data could result in an improved NGSAM analysis. Detailed examples of various tasks that have been performed by the team will be discussed in the full paper. Continued efforts in this direction are expected in the coming years.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Flexible, integrated modeling of tokamak stability, transport, equilibrium, and pedestal physics

The STEP (Stability, Transport, Equilibrium, and Pedestal) integrated-modeling tool has been developed in OMFIT to predict stable, tokamak equilibria self-consistently with core-transport and pedestal calculations. STEP couples theory-based codes to integrate a variety of physics, including magnetohydrodynamic stability, transport, equilibrium, pedestal formation, and current-drive, heating, and fueling. The input/output of each code is interfaced with a centralized ITER-Integrated Modelling & Analysis Suite data structure, allowing codes to be run in any order and enabling open-loop, feedback, and optimization workflows. This paradigm simplifies the integration of new codes, making STEP highly extensible. STEP has been verified against a published benchmark of six different integrated models. Core-pedestal calculations with STEP have been successfully validated against individual DIII-D H-mode discharges and across more than 500 discharges of the H98,y2 database, with a mean error in confinement time from experiment less than 19%. STEP has also reproduced results in less conventional DIII-D scenarios, including negative-central-shear and negative-triangularity plasmas. Predictive STEP modeling has been used to assess performance in several tokamak reactors. Simulations of a high-field, large-aspect-ratio reactor show significantly lower fusion power than predicted by a zero-dimensional study, demonstrating the limitations of scaling-law extrapolations. STEP predictions have found promising scenarios for an EXhaust and Confinement Integration Tokamak Experiment, including a high-pressure, 80%-bootstrap-fraction plasma. ITER modeling with STEP has shown that pellet fueling enhances fusion gain in both the baseline and advanced-inductive scenarios. Finally, STEP predictions for the SPARC baseline scenario are in good agreement with published results from the physics basis.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

3D Multiresolution Velocity Model Fusion with Probability Graphical Models

ABSTRACT The variability in spatial resolution of seismic velocity models obtained via tomographic methodologies is attributed to many factors, including inversion strategies, ray-path coverage, and data integrity. Integration of such models, with distinct resolutions, is crucial during the refinement of community models, thereby enhancing the precision of ground-motion simulations. Toward this goal, we introduce the probability graphical model (PGM), combining velocity models with heterogeneous resolutions and nonuniform data point distributions. The PGM integrates data relations across varying resolution subdomains, enhancing detail within low-resolution (LR) domains by utilizing information and prior knowledge from high-resolution (HR) subdomains through a maximum posterior problem. Assessment of efficacy, utilizing both 2D and 3D velocity models—consisting of synthetic checkerboard models and a fault-zone model from Ridgecrest, California—demonstrates noteworthy improvements in accuracy, compared to state-of-the-art fusion techniques. Specifically, we find reductions of 30% and 44% in computed travel-time residuals for 2D and 3D models, respectively, as compared to conventional smoothing techniques. Unlike conventional methods, the PGM’s adaptive weight selection facilitates preserving and learning details from complex, nonuniform HR models and applies the enhancements to the LR background domain.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

Synthetic communities as a model for determining interactions between a biofertilizer chassis organism and native microbial consortia

Biofertilizers are critical for sustainable agriculture because they can replace ecologically disruptive chemical fertilizers while improving the trajectory of soil and plant health. However, for improving deployment, the persistence of biofertilizers within native soil consortia must be elucidated and enhanced. In this study we characterized a high-throughput, modular, and automation-friendly in vitro approach to screen for biofertilizer persistence within soil-derived consortia after co-cultivation with stable synthetic soil microbial communities (SynComs) obtained through a top-down cultivation process. Here, we profiled ~1200 SynComs isolated from various soil sources and cultivated in divergent media types, and we detected significant phylogenetic diversity (e.g. Shannon index >4) and richness (observed richness >400) across these communities. We observed high reproducibility in SynCom community structure from common soil and media types, which provided a testbed for assessing biofertilizer persistence within representative native consortia. Furthermore, we demonstrated that the screening method described herein can be coupled with microbial engineering to efficiently identify soil-derived SynComs in which an engineered biofertilizer organism (i.e. Bacillus subtilis) persists. Accordingly, we discovered that B. subtilis persisted in ~10% of SynComs that generally followed the diversity–invasion principle. Additionally, our approach enabled analysis of the ecological impact of B. subtilis inoculation on SynCom structure and profile alterations in community diversity and richness associated with the presence of a genetically modified model bacterium. Ultimately, this work has established a modular pipeline that could be integrated into a variety of microbiology/microbiome-relevant workflows or related applications that would benefit from assessment of the persistence of a specific organism of interest and its interaction with native consortia.

biofertilizers↗

Managing Solar Photovoltaic Integration in the Western United States: Resource Adequacy Considerations

This study examines the impact of reserve margin-based reliability assessment, as commonly used in capacity expansion models, on planning resource-adequate power systems under high penetrations of solar photovoltaics (PV). As a generation resource, PV is operationally different from the conventional dispatchable resources for which most capacity expansion models were designed. The question this study attempts to answer is whether large amounts of PV on a system (in this case, the Western Interconnection of North America) would bias the results of conventional reserve margin-based capacity expansion modeling towards an over- or under-provisioning of resource adequacy. This analysis used NREL’s Resource Planning Model (RPM) for capacity expansion modeling and NREL’s Probabilistic Resource Adequacy Suite (PRAS) for resource adequacy assessment. RPM uses a reserve margin requirement to enforce resource adequacy. PRAS, a collection of tools for studying the resource adequacy of power systems and the adequacy contributions of individual resources on a probabilistic basis, was used to compute multiple resource adequacy metrics across a number of simulated scenarios and system representations with differing regional detail. In all cases, including high PV penetrations (up to 33% annual generation from PV, interconnection-wide), RPM was able to produce resource-adequate systems as measured by normalized expected unserved energy and loss-of-load expectation results from PRAS. The accuracy of reserve margin approaches depends heavily on the underlying assumptions informing the capacity credit assigned to variable and energy-limited resources, particularly when such resources are abundant in the modeled system. RPM’s standard methodology for estimating variable and flexible resources’ capacity contributions, which is based on the top 100 hours of net load, did not appear to systematically undervalue or overvalue variable generation relative to a more rigorous equivalent firm capacity assessment using PRAS, although both over- and under-valuations were observed in specific scenarios. In the worst cases, the top 100 hour method underestimated the equivalent firm capacity of PV by two percentage points, and overestimated the equivalent firm capacity of PV by five percentage points. Calculating capacity contributions based on the top 10 hours of net load systematically underestimated equivalent firm capacities at more modest PV penetrations, but was often a better approximation of equivalent firm capacity than the existing 100-hour approach in scenarios with higher PV penetrations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Microstructure Experiments-Enabled MARMOT Simulations of SiC/SiC-based Accident Tolerant Nuclear Fuel System

We have undertaken an experimental-computational project that addresses a few key technology gaps associated with the use of SiC/SiC composites for light water reactor fuel cladding. Two principal endeavors in this project are to assess the irradiation-induced microstructural changes and swelling in SiC/SiC composites, and to characterize and model the porous oxide surface layer (when exposed to steam) along SiC recession that is detrimental to the clad integrity under accident conditions. The project tasks are: (i) ion irradiation and characterization (University of Tennessee, Knoxville), (ii) mechanical tests and analysis (University of South Carolina), (iii) steam exposure tests (Oak Ridge National Laboratory), (iv) electron microscopy and spectroscopic characterization (NC State University), (v) x-ray microscopy and reconstruction (University of South Carolina and NC State University), (vi) phase field modeling and simulations (NC State University and Idaho National Laboratory). The effects of 10 MeV Au ion irradiation at 350°C on the microstructure evolution in SiC/SiC composites are investigated at doses up to 400 displacements per atom (dpa) at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville. Atomic force microscopy and optical profilometry reveal irradiation induced axial and radial shrinkage of the fibers for doses greater than 10 dpa. Based on detailed electron microscopy characterization, the primary cause of the fiber shrinkage is attributed to irradiation-induced loss of carbon packets. Additionally, the multilayer PyC interface is observed to portray high resistance to irradiation damage. The mechanical response and failure mechanisms of un-irradiated samples is also assessed through loading tests and X-ray imaging at the University of South Carolina. Steam exposure tests are performed at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory in a facility that represents a reactor pressure vessel under a loss-of-coolant-accident scenario. The samples that are analyzed methodically in this report are tested for 32/31 hours at 1200°C with a velocity of 0.25 cm/s for the pressures: 0.1 MPa, 0.45 MPa, 0.92 MPa and 1.38 MPa. Scanning/transmission electron microscopy analysis conducted at the NC State University (NCSU) shows that the oxide layer thickness increases with the steam pressure. While the oxide layer is crystalline (α- cristobalite) for the pressures 0.45 MPa, 0.92 MPa and 1.38 MPa, the layer is amorphous at 0.1 MPa. Results from Raman spectroscopy have also confirmed the formation of α-cristobalite phase of SiO₂. The abrupt increase in the integrated Raman intensity ratio between steam pressures 0.1 and 0.45 MPa suggests the onset of accelerated crystallization. Non-destructive three dimensional X-ray microscopy/tomography (XCT) and computational image processing techniques are employed by the University of South Carolina to probe the porous oxidation features on SiC samples at varying pressures. Interestingly, most pores are observed to be located away from the surface as well as the oxide-SiC interface. The average oxide layer thickness assessed from the XCT analysis is seen to be in excellent agreement with the values determined through scanning electron microscopy analysis for the highest pressures where the oxide layer is relatively more uniform. A phase-field model developed by the NC State University and Idaho National Laboratory for simulating oxidation of SiC by steam captures the paralinear kinetics of SiC oxidation with a high degree of fidelity. Results from quasi-one-dimensional and two dimensional simulations show that the pores with oxidizing species lead to a higher volatilization rate. These simulations indicate that the enhanced apparent volatilization rates at higher pressures observed in experiments can be rationalized by the increased volatilization from the pores. The project team has also successfully developed the capability to import images from experiments for realistic evolution of the oxidizing microstructure.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Grand Challenges of Hydrologic Modeling for Food-Energy-Water Nexus Security in High Mountain Asia

Climate-influenced changes in hydrology affect water-food-energy security that may impact up to two billion people downstream of the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region. Changes in water supply affect energy, industry, transportation, and ecosystems (agriculture, fisheries) and as a result, also affect the region's social, environmental, and economic fabrics. Sustaining the highly interconnected food-energy-water nexus (FEWN) will be a fundamental and increasing challenge under a changing climate regime. High variability in topography and distribution of glaciated and snow-covered areas in the HMA region, and scarcity of high resolution (in-situ) data make it difficult to model and project climate change impacts on individual watersheds. We lack basic understanding of the spatial and temporal variations in climate, surface impurities in snow and ice such as black carbon and dust that alter surface albedo, and glacier mass balance and dynamics. These knowledge gaps create challenges in predicting where and when the impact of changes in river flow will be the most significant economically and ecologically. In response to these challenges, the United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) established the High Mountain Asia Team (HiMAT) in 2016 to conduct research to address knowledge gaps. This paper summarizes some of the advances HiMAT made over the past 5 years, highlights the scientific challenges in improving our understanding of the hydrology of the HMA region, and introduces an integrated assessment framework to assess the impacts of climate changes on the FEWN for the HMA region. The framework, developed under a NASA HMA project, links climate models, hydrology, hydropower, fish biology, and economic analysis. The framework could be applied to develop scientific understanding of spatio-temporal variability in water availability and the resultant downstream impacts on the FEWN to support water resource management under a changing climate regime.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Joining of High Strength Low Ductility AA7055 by Friction Self-piercing Rivet

High strength aluminum (Al) alloy is one of higher specific strength materials for decarbonization in transportation industries. Because of low ductility at room temperature, conventional mechanical fastening such as self-piercing riveting produces cracks at the joint. In this work, we applied friction self-piercing riveting to join Al alloy (AA) 7055. No cracks were observed in the joints because of the improved local ductility of Al alloy by the generated frictional heat during joining step. Numerical modeling of joining process was applied to guide rivet geometry design and rivet material strength. Mechanical integrity of the AA7055 joints was assessed by lap shear tensile and cross-tension testing. Metallurgical characterizations revealed solid-state bonding formed not only between the rivet and surround Al materials, but also upper and lower Al sheets at the joint interface. Both solid-state bonding and mechanical interlocking between the flared rivet and bottom AA7055 sheet were the major joint mechanisms.

Lim, Yong Chae↗

Global Electrification of Vehicles and Intertwined Material Supply Chains of Cobalt, Copper and Nickel

Electric vehicles (EVs) will be an important part of a low-carbon economy. Future EV adoption depends on overcoming multiple barriers, including charging infrastructure, sufficient electricity generation, and the availability of battery raw materials at acceptable costs, including cobalt, copper and nickel – which typically are co-produced. Various EV projections have been made, along with associated requirements for battery raw materials (demand). There have been separate assessments of the availability of raw materials (supply). However, integrated assessments of supply and demand and their interaction over time are lacking to support decision-making. Using a dynamic market model that reflects the co-produced nature of cobalt, copper and nickel production as well as recycling, we estimate global output of these three metals under different EV growth scenarios from 2020 to 2040. In this work, results suggest that starting in 2025, replacement demand for battery raw materials becomes important. Thus, estimates for future material demand that consider only demands from new EVs are incomplete and misleading. EV deployment and associated increased demand for raw materials will have a greater impact on prices for cobalt than nickel and, in turn, for nickel than copper. High EV deployment scenarios will be difficult to achieve without larger supplies of copper, nickel and cobalt than forthcoming under the conditions modeled here, which anticipates a six-year time lag between a demand increase and the expansion of metal-production capacity. Shortening battery lifetimes and improving collection and recycling rates increase secondary supply, but the extent to which these factors support additional EV deployment is mixed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Efficient Topology Assessment for Integrated Transmission and Distribution Network with 10,000+ Inverter-based Resources

The renewable energy proliferation calls upon the grid operators and planners to systematically evaluate the potential impacts of distributed energy resources (DERs). Considering the significant differences between various inverter-based resources (IBRs), especially the different capabilities between grid-forming inverters and grid-following inverters, it is crucial to develop an efficient and effective assessment procedure besides available co-simulation framework with high computation burdens. This paper presents a streamlined graph-based topology assessment for the integrated power system transmission and distribution networks. Graph analyses were performed based on the integrated graph of modified miniWECC grid model and IEEE 8500-node test feeder model, high performance computing platform with 40 nodes and total 2400 CPUs has been utilized to process this integrated graph, which has 100,000+ nodes and 10,000+ IBRs. The node ranking results not only verified the applicability of the proposed method, but also revealed the potential of distributed grid forming (GFM) and grid following (GFL) inverters interacting with the centralized power plants.

Graph Analysis, Topology evaluation, Infrastructur↗

Root Influences on Mobilization and Export of Mineral-bound Soil Organic Matter

Biogeochemical cycles within mountainous watersheds are key regulators of ecosystem carbon storage and downstream nutrient loadings, and they have shown to be particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. Increasing temperature and persistent droughts have already dramatically changed vegetation cover across the mountainous western US, with unknown consequences for soil carbon and nutrient cycles belowground. What remains elusive is to what extent associated changes in root-soil interactions may mobilize the vast pool of organic matter (OM) that has been stabilized by associations with minerals for centuries or millennia. Although plant root-driven OM mobilization from minerals may be a central control on carbon loss and nutrient export, such mechanisms are currently missing from conceptual and numerical models. The overall objective of this Exploratory Project is to identify the biogeochemical mechanisms by which roots destabilize mineral-associated organic matter (MAOM) and the cumulative impact on carbon and nutrient fate. To accomplish this goal, we integrated well-controlled laboratory experiments with in-field measurements and a scalable modeling approach. First, we conducted model system experiments to assess the vulnerability of MAOM to exudate-mediated mechanisms. Our results show that common root exudates effectively destabilize MAOM not only through direct, ligand-driven mobilization mechanisms, but also indirect, microbially-mediated mechanisms relying on secondary metabolites and enzymes. We further found that OM bound to poorly crystalline Fe and Al (hydr)oxides is more vulnerable to exudate-induced destabilization than OM bound to more crystalline phases, particularly in response to direct, ligand-promoted mechanisms. These findings demonstrate that the stability of MAOM is not just a function of their inherent properties, but also will depend in large parts on the ability of plant roots and microbes to produce exudates capable of triggering suitable mobilization mechanisms. We further employed a well-controlled rhizobox approach, combining advanced microsensor and mass spectrometry techniques, to resolve spatiotemporal variations in the composition and availability of exudates along single growing roots of grasses. Our results show that the composition of functionally relevant exudate compounds varies at extremely short time scales, seemingly shifting from ligands such as aromatic acids around root tips to less reactive metabolites such as amino acids around mature root segments. These results suggest a prevalence of direct MAOM mobilization mechanisms around the root tip, while indirect MAOM mobilization strategies may dominate around more mature root segments. Additionally, we utilized microsensor measurements in rhizoboxes to parameterize a rhizosphere (hydro)biogeochemistry reactive transport model (eSTOMP-ROOTS). The resulting model was used to assess how root exudations affects the stability of MAOM. Model simulations show that diel pulses of root exudation are strong enough to cause oscillations in biogeochemical conditions—particularly in pH, oxygen concentrations, and microbial activity— that repeatedly disrupt MAOM. Finally, we assessed field-scale impacts of root-driven MAOM destabilization over short and long time scales. A combination of in-field incubations and field-based characterizations showed that MAOM may not only be vulnerable to seasonal variations in root activity, but also to root-driven weathering over pedogenic time scales. In sum, results from our Exploratory Award highlight the strong control plant roots exert on MAOM mobilization and, thus, on the potential for carbon and nutrient export from watersheds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Microchannel-based Membrane-less Extraction of Li from Unconventional Lithium Sources & the Separation of REE

This final report provides an overview of the Project's entire duration, covering July 1, 2021 to December 31, 2023. It primarily focuses on the achievements, technological developments, and unique challenges the team faced while working on separating and extracting Lithium from produced waters. The project's primary aim was to create an integrated, high-throughput, membrane-less, and modular microfluidic platform that could extract Lithium from unconventional sources. We have successfully met all goals and milestones envisioned in the SOPO document. The most critical primary milestones, including the Go-No-Go milestone (refer to the Gantt chart in the Appendices), were successfully accomplished. We demonstrated phase separation (>90%) and extraction (>85%) performance in the MPSE using synthetic, and representative produced water composition feed at 50 ml/min total flow through MPSE 36. We have also performed a parametric study of the MPSE operations, beyond the scope of SOPO, exploring operating conditions of current and broader interest. The extended investigation of operational parameters is concurrent with our efforts to seek further development of the MPSE technology beyond the scope of the Project. Along these lines of development, we have made efforts to be responsive to DOE calls for technological developments of other types of resources (beyond PW) for the recovery of Critical Materials and higher TRL development (beyond TRL 4). During the work on this Project, we developed and implemented three innovative technical approaches that emerged from our efforts to successfully meet the Project milestones. The innovative & original technical approaches developed and implemented in this Project are now the contributions to process engineering that could be clearly credited to the Project. First, Convergent Design Approach is a comprehensive feedforward & feedback loop of four design phases: i) design for functionality, ii) design for manufacturing, iii) design for sustainability, and iv) design for market. Next was Process Intensification. A major aim of this Project was to create an innovative phase separation & extraction microscale-based technology for Li separation – thus the words microchannel-based in the Project title. A microscale-based technology is intrinsically in the center of the Process Intensification domain as defined by its unique principles. Therefore, Process Intensification was implicitly envisioned in the Project’s SOPO. Lastly, Time Scale Analysis is a novel tool for discovering the needs and directions of Process Intensification implementations in any process technology. This Project is fully credited for developing and implementing the three novel technical approaches mentioned above. These are general contributions to process engineering that emerged from this Project. Beyond the original SOPO scope, the OSU-U.Pitt research group utilized a Convergent Design methodology, integrating first-principles mathematical modeling with experimental validation on the Minimum Development Vehicle. By creating these Digital Twins, the team rapidly assessed manufacturing iterations to support TEA analysis. This framework further enabled the development of advanced Surface Modification Techniques, where hydrophobic and oleophobic coating strategies were optimized via Digital Twin tools and validated through rigorous 100-hour longevity testing. TEA Analysis: The closing efforts of this Project were focused on the TEA analysis. TEA analysis had two primary functions: i) enabling critical assessments of design variations withing 10 the Concurrent Design Approach, thus enabling evolution of the MPSE design to reach faster- better-cheaper alternatives; and ii) to create a bridge between the accomplishments of this Project and future projects of higher TRL, beyond TRL 6 level. It is important to note that the TEA model created in the Project stirred the technological solutions for the recovery of critical materials toward a vision of a very profitable modular plant that has unique zero-waste water discharge signature. More importantly, thanks to our experimental performance data and conservative assumptions, the TEA model predicts minimal technological and investment risks. Low cost of a modular unit of a nominal capacity of [1000 tons of Li 2 CO 3 /year] positions the MPSE based technology within the reach of community investors, thus offering a paradigm shift in the development of critical technologies. The project successfully navigated two primary challenges: solvent selection and manufacturing adaptation. Restricted by the SOPO to existing literature for lithium recovery, the team identified a critical need for a "material excellence program" to develop next-generation solvents, eventually concluding with a preliminary investigation into promising Ionic Liquids (ILs). Simultaneously, COVID-19 supply chain disruptions forced a pivot from traditional manufacturing to advanced additive methods at ATAMI-OSU. By transitioning from stainless steel to 3D-printed polymer substrates, the team achieved a transformative three-order-of- magnitude reduction in manufacturing costs and compressed prototyping timelines from several months to just two days. The MPSE technology offers significant energy, environmental, and economic advantages by overcoming the traditional bottlenecks of phase-separation hardware and contactor size. Unlike conventional mixer-settlers or membrane-based systems, MPSE operates without moving parts or fouling-prone membranes, achieving robust performance even with challenging, viscous, or particulate-heavy feeds. Key performance metrics include an energy intensity reduction of 5–50x (3–40 kJ/m 3 ) compared to incumbent technologies and a dramatic reduction of processing time to under 60 seconds, which drastically reduces the physical plant footprint. These technical efficiencies translate into superior economic outcomes; for a 100 t/year Li 2 CO 3 facility, implementing MPSE is projected to nearly halve contactor CAPEX (from $\$$6.08M to $\$$3.01M) and significantly increase the project's Net Present Value (NPV), derisking new investment and enabling distributed critical-mineral processing configurations. The commercialization of MPSE technology is being spearheaded by Vigsur Dynamics Inc., which has adopted a structured, parallel approach to technical and business development since its formation in January 2026. Following extensive customer discovery and engagement with the Oregon State University accelerator, Vigsur Dynamics is working to establish a business model that transitions from pilot demonstrations to modular hardware sales, ultimately aiming for a "build-own-operate" service strategy. Current technical milestones—including 100 hours of continuous operation, superior energy efficiency, and successful 6-unit modular scale-up— provide a foundation for this transition. Backed by ongoing IP licensing and a growing network of industrial and venture advisors, the company is actively de-risking the platform to replace conventional mixer-settler systems in the critical minerals market.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Surface Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (SQUIRE) of Snow Water Equivalent from the Surface Atmospheric Integrated Field Laboratory

The upper Colorado River basin is the primary source of water for 40 million people. With declining snowpack in the basin, forecasting hydrological budgets in the Southwest United States is more important than ever. However, due in part, to a lack of reliable observations of precipitation in complex terrain, hydrological models struggle to assess and forecast snowpack snow water equivalent (SWE) in the upper Colorado River basin (UCRB). Therefore, the need for more reliable SWE forecasts in the UCRB motivated the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Facility’s Surface Atmospheric Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) that occurred from June 2021 to June 2023. During SAIL, the X-band precipitation radar from Colorado State University conducted volume scans sampling the precipitation properties over the UCRB. The ARM facility developed a gridded Surface Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (SQUIRE) product from the radar observations. To do this, various daily SWE estimates from radar using the radar reflectivity factor Z e and specific differential phase K dp were compared against ground-based precipitation gauges. SWE in precipitation calculated from Wolfe and Snider’s S–Z e estimator was in best agreement with the rain gauges for the days when SWE < 12 mm. For days with SWE > 12 mm, the WSR-88D Intermountain West relationship had the best agreement with the precipitation gauges. Airborne snow depth observations show that SQUIRE captures regions of orographic enhancement in the mountains to the west and northwest of the SAIL study area, indicating that the scientific community should focus on understanding and ultimately simulating orographic atmospheric precipitation processes to improve UCRB snowpack SWE assessment and forecasting.

Hydrology↗