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The Lunar Lab Initiative

Analogous to terrestrial Antarctic basecamps at our south pole, space exploration outposts will be a combination of habitation and science-focused assets. The Artemis Exploration Roadmap endeavors to establish a sustained human presence on the lunar south pole starting in 2028. Within the planned Artemis Base Camp, most efforts to date have focused on the habitation assets or a mixture of science and habitation assets . With the recent advent of commercial lunar landing capabilities, the trade space can be further expanded to include dedicated science focused assets that ensure adequate science capability. To that end, the Forge, an innovation team initiative created at the Johnson Space Center (JSC), explored alternative ways to increase the science capabilities within the basecamp. The Forge uses structured brainstorming and facilitation to increase innovation within the assigned team, while executing its process in a rapid turnaround fashion for ideation and design study. As a pilot study for the Forge, a multi-disciplinary team investigated a lunar lab module to augment the lunar surface plans for Artemis. This formulation study evaluated the scientific and operational considerations for this dedicated crew space that would increase the capabilities of lunar surface science operations. The trade space evaluated single lunar lander delivery versus multiple lunar lander delivery for module assembly, alternative structural designs, the science instrument outfitting with mapping to scientific goals to maximize lunar science objectives, and how the lab would be operated. The lab operations options explored a stand-alone facility, as well as a facility integrated into a larger lunar surface complex, while evaluating crew usage and habitability considerations. The resulting alternatives were evaluated by the Forge team with a set of metrics to determine their originality, feasibility, and science performance, and thereby provide a recommendation to the lunar architecture planning team. Lessons learned from the lunar lab study were compiled to improve the process and tools for future Forge studies. Forward work, open issues, and challenges to further refine the design of the various science-focused asset options were also documented. By providing a robust science capability at humanity’s furthest outpost, we can plan for a sustained human lunar presence once the initial lunar surface access capability is well established.

Lunar outpost↗

DOE OSTI2025

Describing Point Defect Topology in 2D Energy Materials through Computer Vision

2d materials↗

DOE OSTI2025

Describing Point Defect Topology in 2D Energy Materials Through Computer Vision

2D materials↗

DOE OSTI2026

Describing Point Defect Topology in 2D Energy Materials Through Computer Vision

Point defects such as vacancies and impurity atoms strongly impact the performance of 2D materials. Traditional efforts often rely on manual detection, a process that is time-intensive, prone to human error, and challenging to scale. Here we leverage machine learning (ML) methods to identify and quantify vacancies within 2D transition metal carbides (Ti3C2, MXenes), aiming to expedite detection while improving accuracy. MXenes exhibit valuable defect-defined electrochemical properties, but we currently lack statistical understanding of defect topology needed to fully harness these materials. Here we employ a convolutional neural network for semantic segmentation of experimental MXene images, opening an opportunity to conduct a rigorous statistical study on defect hierarchy while investigating local relaxation in the lattice. We show how the integration of ML can yield fundamental insight into point defects, providing a powerful tool that will play an increasingly crucial role in the future of materials science. ML is often not just a matter of straightforward application, and pretrained models proved ineffective in this case. Instead, we trained our own neural network (NN) and applied data augmentation techniques and fine-tuning to the training dataset. Since labeled microscopy data is often scarce, we developed training data from a previously published wide-frame MXene image, using customized Gaussian fitting to locate atomic positions. Our trained model was then applied to a large dataset of experimental images, enabling a statistical study of defect configurations across three samples prepared with different HF etchant concentrations (5%, 9.1%, and 12.5%), as shown in Fig. 1. This also allowed us to investigate local strain around vacancies, though we find that we are limited by the precision of measurements using high-angle annular dark field (HAADF) images, as shown in Fig. 2. This study demonstrates how ML enables large-scale, quantitative analysis of atomic defects - an otherwise infeasible task with traditional methods. While our NN was specialized for Ti3C2 MXenes, the pipeline we developed provides a foundation for future ML models tailored to other materials. Ultimately, we envision embedding the NN onto the microscope to give real-time feedback to the user. To make this a reality, continued work is necessary to fully understand the NN's capabilities and limitations. This study gets one step closer to our goals of automated experimentation moving away from traditional methods of manual labeling. As ML capabilities advance, we hope to continue adapting and applying these techniques in microscopy.

2D materials↗

DOE OSTI2024

Factorized visual representations in the primate visual system and deep neural networks

Object classification has been proposed as a principal objective of the primate ventral visual stream and has been used as an optimization target for deep neural network models (DNNs) of the visual system. However, visual brain areas represent many different types of information, and optimizing for classification of object identity alone does not constrain how other information may be encoded in visual representations. Information about different scene parameters may be discarded altogether (‘invariance’), represented in non-interfering subspaces of population activity (‘factorization’) or encoded in an entangled fashion. In this work, we provide evidence that factorization is a normative principle of biological visual representations. In the monkey ventral visual hierarchy, we found that factorization of object pose and background information from object identity increased in higher-level regions and strongly contributed to improving object identity decoding performance. We then conducted a large-scale analysis of factorization of individual scene parameters – lighting, background, camera viewpoint, and object pose – in a diverse library of DNN models of the visual system. Models which best matched neural, fMRI, and behavioral data from both monkeys and humans across 12 datasets tended to be those which factorized scene parameters most strongly. Notably, invariance to these parameters was not as consistently associated with matches to neural and behavioral data, suggesting that maintaining non-class information in factorized activity subspaces is often preferred to dropping it altogether. Thus, we propose that factorization of visual scene information is a widely used strategy in brains and DNN models thereof.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1987

Influence of visual and motion cues on manual lateral stabilization

The ability of humans to detect and control their own lateral acceleration was measured by means of a closed-loop nulling task. Wide-field moving visual cues enhanced the operator's performance in nulling self-motion, especially at lower frequencies. Even visual cues, fixed relative to the operator, resulted in performance improvement relative to self-motion nulling in the dark. Describing function (frequency response) data was obtained for random acceleration conditions consisting of the visual field fixed relative to the laboratory, fixed relative to the subject, moving at constant velocity relative to the subject, and in the dark. The describing function data was corrected for the dynamics of operator manual control strategy. The resulting frequency responses were used to develop a linear model of self-motion detection which required a lead term of 1.5 rad/s to be added to the existing model in order to match the higher sensitivity at higher frequencies.

Huang, J.-K.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Pharmacology Risk Report

It seems very likely that the actions of administered drugs on crewmembers during spaceflight are different than they are on Earth, but even after more than 40 years of spaceflight experience, the answers to most questions about medication use during missions remain unanswered. Use of medications with insufficient knowledge about their actual activities may result in inadequate treatment and may even reduce performance and well-being in particular circumstances. There is evidence that this has already occurred during and immediately after spaceflights. The spaceflight pharmaceutical activity knowledge base must be improved to enable flight surgeons and crewmembers to make better decisions about using pharmaceuticals inflight. The spaceflight environment induces changes in human physiology, and these changes have been the subject of much study over the past few decades. These studies are confounded by the small number of potential subjects, as well by the inability to separate the different stressors of spaceflight (radiation exposure from microgravity, for example). In every physiological system, the details of spaceflight-induced physiological changes are not well understood. Despite this fact, crewmembers are treated with pharmaceuticals to reduce or prevent medical problems, with insufficient information as to drug function on their altered physiological systems. There are two major concerns about pharmaceutical use in the unusual environment of spaceflight. The actions of pharmaceuticals on physiology altered by a spaceflight environment are currently assumed to be the same as the actions in terrestrial use. This has yet to be established. The wide range of physiological systems altered by spaceflight and the degree of change experienced in some of them make it very likely that alterations in pharmaceutical action will be seen. As the duration of missions lengthens to include more distant exploration, it becomes more likely that problems will be encountered. Secondly, the integrity of stored pharmaceuticals must be established to ensure that adequate amounts of active compounds are available in each dose and that degradation to toxic compounds is minimized. This risk is also dependent on mission duration, since longer missions will require that drugs be stored much longer than their usual terrestrial shelf-lives.

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2020

Artificial Intelligence for Natural Gas Utilities: A Primer

Modern natural gas utilities face numerous challenges and competing priorities from various stakeholders. Policymakers, customers, and advocacy groups want to see gas utilities improve performance on safety, reliability, resilience, affordability, and environmental stewardship. State utility regulators — public utility commissions — are responsible for overseeing utility performance, ensuring that ratepayer funds are being spent in the public interest, and aligning utility goals with public goals. The use of new technologies is critical to enabling cost-effective performance on these attributes. Artificial intelligence (AI) is a widely used term among utilities and regulators, but the term means different things to different stakeholders, and it is often used to describe data analytics approaches that fall short of the formal definition of AI, which is: “…the ability of a machine to receive inputs and produce a behavior or reaction similar to that of an intelligent human being.” AI (and related tools, techniques, and technologies) can help utilities solve current and emerging challenges. By combining customer and system data with analytical tools and technologies, AI can augment human decision-makers by assisting in identifying problems and events before they occur, enabling resources to be more efficiently directed across utility infrastructure. The intended primary audience for this primer is state regulators, although utilities and other stakeholders might also find it useful and relevant to improve their awareness of AI. The objectives of this primer are to: (a) offer a set of broadly applicable definitions for AI and related terms, allowing regulators, utilities, and other stakeholders to speak the same language; (b) discuss how AI is currently being implemented in the gas utility sector; and (c) understand the challenges affecting AI solutions and how tools might be implemented in the future. This primer fits within NARUC’s goals of providing impartial information to improve the ability of public utility commissions to regulate in the public interest. As such, this primer does not seek to recommend AI over any other investment, nor does it endorse any particular vendor, product, or approach. It does seek to prepare state regulators to oversee AI investments by sharing information about the current landscape of commercially available tools. To these ends, the primer is organized as follows: Section I discusses the current environment in which natural gas utilities operate and how AI, when thoughtfully designed and implemented, can enable utilities to achieve performance goals; Section II offers definitions of AI and related terms within the data analytics discipline; Section III provides three current opportunities for which AI can offer solutions: replacing aging gas distribution infrastructure, preventing excavator damage to gas distribution infrastructure, and improving energy efficiency programs. This section discusses each problem statement in detail. Second, Section III includes a discussion of how costs and benefits of investments to solve each problem are measured. And third, this section offers real-world examples of utility implementation of AI solutions; Section IV discusses challenges with implementing AI, both from the perspective of utilities and regulators; Section V suggests areas in which AI could feasibly be implemented in the near future; Finally, Section VI offers concluding thoughts and areas for further research.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

NASA NTRS2024

ISS Technology Demonstrations for Future Spaceflight Medical Systems

Throughout the history of human spaceflight, crewmembers have experienced various in-flight medical conditions including illness and injury. Planned missions to the Moon and Mars will require capabilities to maintain the health of future space travelers. Mass, power, and volume available in the vehicles and habitats for these missions will be severely constrained; resupply of resources will be limited or non-existent, as will opportunities for evacuation to Earth. Furthermore, ground-based support will be hampered by communication latencies and blackouts. These vehicle and mission constraints will necessitate a medical system that has been efficiently planned, providing on-board procedural guidance in addition to a variety of medical devices and consumable resources. Medical capabilities required for the diagnosis and treatment of potential medical conditions during future spaceflight missions may include real-time health monitoring, medical imaging, and biomarker analyses ( e.g., blood or urine). Terrestrial medicine shares these needs, thus many of these medical capabilities could likely be satisfied by Commercial-Off-The-Shelf (COTS) devices and methodologies; however, in some cases the unique space environment and increased mission duration will drive the need to modify technologies and the way care is provided. NASA’s Human Research Program (HRP) Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element and Mars Campaign Office’s Exploration Medical Integrated Product Team (XMIPT) are working together to decrease medical risk during exploration missions. Flight-tested medical diagnostic and treatment technologies are necessary to effectively manage medical conditions relevant to exploration missions while meeting vehicle constraints, integrating with medical decision-support tools, and enabling increasingly Earth-independent operations. Several projects have leveraged the ISS as a testbed for exploration, including 1) i n- situ blood analysis, 2) medical inventory, 3) intravenous fluid generation, and 4) autonomous medical procedure guidance. Management of several in-flight medical conditions, such as bacterial and viral infections and acute radiation syndrome, is dramatically improved with ability to assess blood cell populations, electrolytes, and metabolites. I n December 2020 and January 2021 ExMC performed an ISS technology demonstration (Tech Demo) of the HemoCue® WBC DIFF analyzer (HemoCue, Brea, CA), a COTS device that was modified to enable functionality in a spaceflight environment. This Tech Demo marked the first time that hematology measurements were successfully performed real-time in microgravity. Also modified and demonstrated was the reusable Handheld Electrolytes and Lab Technology for Humans (rHEALTH) ONE analyzer (rHEALTH, Bedford, MA), which uses flow cytometry and sheath-based hydrodynamic focusing methodologies. The rHEALTH ONE ISS Tech Demo in May 2022 demonstrated test results obtained in-flight matched those on the ground. NASA currently relies on crew self-reporting to manage and maintain medical inventory on ISS.The ability to maintain an accurate inventory becomes more critical during long duration missions since the crew will need to be increasingly autonomous in finding and utilizing medical items, including those scenarios when alternative treatments need to be considered due to limited or no resupply. HRP’s Medical Consumables Tracking (MCT) project was developed by ZIN Technologies, Inc. (Cleveland, OH), and demonstrated real-time tracking of medical supplies aboard the ISS between December 2016 and July 2018. The MCT system design utilized Radio Frequency Identification Device (RFID) technology to perform automated inventory and was installed in the Crew Health Care System (CHeCS) Resupply Stowage Rack (RSR). The challenge of limited shelf life, exacerbated by the lack of resupply opportunities, affects a plethora of medical system components including consumables, pharmaceuticals, and intravenous (IV) fluid. In 2010, ExMC funded ZIN Technologies, Inc. (Cleveland, OH), to develop the Intravenous Fluid Generation (IVGEN) system. IV fluids were successfully generated with IVGEN using the potable water supply on ISS during ISS Expedition 23. The XMIPT is in the process of developing a miniaturized version of the original IVGEN hardware for a future Tech Demo aboard the ISS. Current ISS medical operations rely heavily on preflight training and real-time remote guidance, both of which become impractical or impossible for exploration missions. The primary goal of the Autonomous Medical Officer Support (AMOS) Software Tech Demos on ISS was to confirm telemedical proof-of-concept for autonomous medical imaging in an operational setting. This novel software tool shifts emphasis from preflight training and real-time remote guidance to in-flight just-in-time instruction, a new and necessary paradigm for crew medical autonomy. AMOS introduces a novel, streamlined skill management concept for exploration missions featuring comprehensive training and guidance modules for ultrasound examinations using the ISS Ultrasound 2 (a modified GE Vivid-q™; General Electric HealthCare, Chicago, IL). With no prior crew training or remote guidance, two Tech Demos on the ISS (April 2020 and June 2022) resulted in high quality, clinically useful image sets. We will provide a review of historical, current, and planned medical devices and technologies considered for inclusion within future spaceflight medical systems and summarize hardware development activities and medical device tech demos conducted on the ISS.

Astronaut health and performance↗

DOE OSTI2023

Optimizing Information Automation Using a New Method Based on System-Theoretic Process Analysis: Tool Development and Method Evaluation

This report is an update to a prior report that describes progress and findings for a program of research supporting the design and optimization of information automation systems for nuclear power plants. Much of the domestic nuclear fleet is currently focused on modernizing technologies and processes, including transitioning toward digitalization in the control room and throughout the plant, along with a greater interest in the use of automation, artificial intelligence, robotics, and other emerging technologies. While there are significant opportunities to apply these technologies toward greater plant safety, efficiency, and overall cost-effectiveness, optimizing their design and avoiding potential safety and performance risks depends on ensuring that human performance-related organizational and technical design issues are identified and addressed early in the design process. This report describes modeling tools and techniques, based on sociotechnical systems theory, to support these design goals and their application in the current research effort. The report is primarily intended for senior nuclear energy stakeholders, including regulators, corporate management, and senior plant management. We have developed and employed a method to design an optimized information automation ecosystem (IAE) based on the systems-theoretic constructs underlying sociotechnical systems theory in general and the Systems-Theoretic Accident Modeling and Processes (STAMP) approach in particular. We argue that an IAE can be modeled as an interactive information control system whose behavior can be understood in terms of dynamic control, feedback, and communication relationships amongst the system’s technical and organizational components. We have employed two STAMP-based tools in this effort. The first is Causal Analysis based on STAMP (CAST), an accident and incident analysis technique that was used to examine a performance- and safety-related incident at an industry partner’s plant involving the unintentional activation of an emergency diesel generator. This analysis provided insight into the behavior of the plant’s current information control structure within the context of a specific, significant event. The second tool is Systems Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) which is a proactive risk analysis tool used to examine existing and potential, planned sociotechnical systems. STPA was used to identify risk factors in the current design of a generic nuclear power plant (NPP) preventive maintenance system. Our analyses focused on identifying near-term system improvements and longer-term design requirements for an optimized IAE system. CAST analysis findings indicate an important underlying contributor to the incident under investigation, and a significant risk to information automation system performance, was perceived time and schedule pressure, which exposed weaknesses in interdepartmental coordination between and within responsible plant organizations and challenged the resilience of established plant processes, until a human caused the eventual event. These findings are discussed in terms of their risk to overall system performance and their implications for information automation system resilience and brittleness. STPA findings exposed several areas of concern in the design of current preventive maintenance systems. We also present two preliminary information automation models. The proactive issue resolution (PIR) model is a test case of an information automation concept with significant near-term potential for application and subsequent reduction in significant plant events. The IAE model is a more general representation of a broader, plantwide information automation system and represents an end-state vision for our work. From our results, we have generated an initial set of preliminary system-level requirements and safety constraints for these models. We have also focused on early development of easy to learn, easy to use “transportable” tools for sociotechnical systems analysis. We intend these to be used by NPP personnel as a means of gaining reliable and relatively quick insight into (1) sociotechnical systems factors impacting incidents and accidents, (2) potential sociotechnical risk factors in existing or planned system designs, and (3) potential weaknesses in a system’s safety and/or information control structure. We conclude the report with a set of summary recommendations, a discussion of planned and potential follow-on research and development, and a draft list of system-level requirements and safety constraints for optimized information automation systems.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

NASA NTRS2019

Update to Mars Ascent Vehicle Design for Human Exploration

Astronauts on a mission to Mars will require several vehicles working together to get to Mars orbit, descend to the surface of Mars, support them while they’re there, and return them to Earth. The Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV) transports the crew off the surface of Mars to a waiting Earth return vehicle in Mars orbit and is a particularly influential part of the mission architecture because it sets performance requirements for the lander and in-space transportation vehicles. With this in mind, efforts have been made to minimize the MAV mass, and its impact on the other vehicles. A minimal mass MAV design using methane and in situ generated oxygen propellants was presented in 2015. Since that time, refinements have been made in most subsystems to incorporate findings from ongoing research into key technologies, improved understanding of environments and further analysis of design options. This paper presents an overview of the current MAV reference design used in NASA’s human Mars mission studies, and includes a description of the operations, configuration, subsystem design, and a vehicle mass summary.

propulsion↗

DOE OSTI2024

BeyondFingerprinting: AI-guided discovery of robust materials & processes

BeyondFingerprinting was a 2021-2024 Sandia Grand Challenge LDRD exploring the potential to develop new resilient materials and manufacturing processes by taking an artificial-intelligence (AI)-guided approach that integrates human-subject-matter expertise with algorithms enriched with physics-based constraints to unearth process-structure-property correlations. Such algorithms, trained on high-throughput experiments and simulations, are shown to serve as surrogate models that efficiently detect key “fingerprints” in materials data, prognose material performance, and guide effective process improvements. To accelerate broader adoption across mission areas, this AI-guided approach was demonstrated with three complex process-centric exemplars: electroplating, physical vapor deposition, and laser powder bed fusion. Together, these exemplars impact nearly every hardware component relevant to DOE and NNSA national security missions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1997

Of red planets and indigo computers: Mars database visualization as an example of platform downsizing

The last decade has witnessed tremendous advancements in the computer hardware and software used to perform scientific visualization. In this paper, we consider how the visualization of a particular data set, the digital terrain model derived from the Viking orbiter imagery, has been realized in four distinct projects over this period. These examples serve to demonstrate how the vast improvements in computational performance both decrease the cost of such visualization efforts and permit an increasing level of interactivity. We then consider how even today's graphical systems require the visualization designer to make intelligent choices and tradeoffs in database rendering. Finally, we discuss how insights gleaned from an understanding of human visual perception can guide these design decisions, and suggest new options for visualization hardware and software.

NASA Center ARC↗

NASA NTRS2009

Hubble Servicing Challenges Drive Innovation of Shuttle Rendezvous Techniques

Hubble Space Telescope (HST) servicing, performed by Space Shuttle crews, has contributed to what is arguably one of the most successful astronomy missions ever flown. Both nominal and contingency proximity operations techniques were developed to enable successful servicing, while lowering the risk of damage to HST systems, and improve crew safety. Influencing the development of these techniques were the challenges presented by plume impingement and HST performance anomalies. The design of both the HST and the Space Shuttle was completed before the potential of HST contamination and structural damage by shuttle RCS jet plume impingement was fully understood. Relative navigation during proximity operations has been challenging, as HST was not equipped with relative navigation aids. Since HST reached orbit in 1990, proximity operations design for servicing missions has evolved as insight into plume contamination and dynamic pressure has improved and new relative navigation tools have become available. Servicing missions have provided NASA with opportunities to gain insight into servicing mission design and development of nominal and contingency procedures. The HST servicing experiences and lessons learned are applicable to other programs that perform on-orbit servicing and rendezvous, both human and robotic.

Goodman, John L.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Hybrid Electric MC-12 Ground Testing Plan Chapter

In the commercial aviation world, hybrid/electric propulsion is a promising technology for fuel, emissions, and noise reduction in support of the challenging goals established by 2050 EU Flightpath/SRIA, NASA ARMD Strategic Implementation Plan, and the US Air Force ATTAM programs. Ongoing results indicate operational benefits are possible in those three technical areas. Considering military applications, hybrid/electric propulsion may yield further significant improvements by enabling new, unorthodox mission capabilities. Potential benefits are expected in the areas of vehicle signature reduction (lower noise, lower exhaust signature), usage in enhanced flight environments, minimized human-in-the-loop workload by offering a platform compatible with future goals of autonomous operations facilitation, maintenance cost reductions, and performance burst/dash energy. Additional synergies are likely when used in conjunction with energy weapons. Some potential areas of mutual interest could include, dusty operations capability, remote supply capability, extended surveillance, dispatch able power, fuel-flexible vehicles, and autonomous rescue equipment. Many of the key technologies that have been demonstrated in ground operation must now be qualified for altitude conditions. We expect to have many flight qualified powertrain systems over the next decade for military planners to choose from for new future battlefield capability. This requires new flight-weight and flight-efficient powertrain components, fault tolerant power management, and electromagnetic interference mitigation technologies. Moreover, initial studies indicate some combination of ambient and cryogenic thermal management and relatively high bus voltages when compared to state of practice will be required to achieve a net system benefit. Developing all these powertrain technologies within a realistic aircraft architectural geometry and under realistic operational conditions requires a unique electric aircraft test bed. The MC-12 surveillance aircraft is an ideal military aircraft for demonstrating some of the benefits of incorporating hybrid electric propulsion. This report details an approach for full-scale ground-based altitude testing the hybrid electric MC-12 powertrain through a full flight profile.

military electric aircraft propulsion↗

DOE OSTI2023

Autonomy Loops for Monitoring, Operational Data Analytics, Feedback, and Response in HPC Operations

Many High Performance Computing (HPC) facilities have developed and deployed frameworks in support of continuous monitoring and operational data analytics (MODA) to help improve efficiency and throughput. Because of the complexity and scale of systems and workflows and the need for low-latency response to address dynamic circumstances, automated feedback and response have the potential to be more effective than current human-in-the-loop approaches which are laborious and error prone. Progress has been limited, however, by factors such as the lack of infrastructure and feedback hooks, and successful deployment is often site- and case-specific. In this position paper we report on the outcomes and plans from a recent Dagstuhl Seminar, seeking to carve a path for community progress in the development of autonomous feedback loops for MODA, based on the established formalism of similar (MAPE-K) loops in autonomous computing and self-adaptive systems. By defining and developing such loops for significant cases experienced across HPC sites, we seek to extract commonalities and develop conventions that will facilitate interoperability and interchangeability with system hardware, software, and applications across different sites, and will motivate vendors and others to provide telemetry interfaces and feedback hooks to enable community development and pervasive deployment of MODA autonomy loops.

autonomy loops↗

DOE OSTI2025

Toward Drilling the Perfect Geothermal Well: An International Research Coordination Network for Geothermal Drilling Optimization Supported by Deep Machine Learning and Cloud Based Data Aggregation

The EDGE project, supported by the U.S. Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Office under award DE-EE0008793, established a data-driven framework for improving the efficiency, cost-effectiveness, and reliability of geothermal well drilling. The project focused on developing scalable data infrastructure, advanced machine learning and probabilistic models, and integrated analytics tools to support continuous drilling optimization. A central objective was to reduce geothermal drilling costs by up to seventy percent while minimizing the risk of well failure through predictive diagnostics and adaptive planning. Over the project period, a comprehensive data repository was designed and deployed, incorporating records from over one hundred geothermal wells across varied geological settings. This repository supported both structured and unstructured data and adhered to FAIR data principles, enabling provenance tracking, quality control, and standardized metadata. The project introduced automated ingestion pipelines and a cloud-hosted platform that facilitated access to raw, processed, and derived datasets. This infrastructure served as the foundation for model development and analysis. Machine learning workflows were developed to predict key drilling metrics including rate of penetration, non-productive time, and total drilling costs. Self-organizing maps and dimensionality reduction methods were used to uncover operational patterns and outliers, while supervised learning algorithms such as random forests and deep neural networks were applied to forecast performance outcomes. The models were validated on heterogeneous datasets from both U.S. and Icelandic fields, demonstrating variable but significant predictive accuracy. The results indicated that finer temporal resolution, inclusion of lithological data, and consistency in operational annotations could substantially improve model performance. The project also implemented process mining techniques to reconstruct state-transition models from drilling event logs. These models enabled the identification of deviations from optimal workflows and provided insights into recurring failure modes. Analysis of non-productive time highlighted the impact of equipment failures, geological challenges, and human factors, offering opportunities for targeted mitigation strategies. The EDGE Dashboard was developed as a web-based expert system integrating data visualization, model outputs, and user-driven queries. It provided an accessible interface for operators to explore historical data, evaluate predicted outcomes, and compare drilling scenarios. Initial feedback from project partners suggested that the dashboard could serve as a foundation for more advanced advisory and optimization tools. Overall, the EDGE project demonstrated the feasibility and value of applying modern data science techniques to geothermal drilling. It delivered a set of interoperable tools and models that can support more efficient, lower-risk well development. The findings point toward a viable path for transitioning from advisory analytics to semi-autonomous drilling systems, contingent on continued collaboration, expanded datasets, and field validation. The project results have immediate relevance for drilling operations, data management practices, and future geothermal R&D efforts aimed at achieving reliable, cost-competitive geothermal energy at scale.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1994

Fuzzy logic, neural networks, and soft computing

The past few years have witnessed a rapid growth of interest in a cluster of modes of modeling and computation which may be described collectively as soft computing. The distinguishing characteristic of soft computing is that its primary aims are to achieve tractability, robustness, low cost, and high MIQ (machine intelligence quotient) through an exploitation of the tolerance for imprecision and uncertainty. Thus, in soft computing what is usually sought is an approximate solution to a precisely formulated problem or, more typically, an approximate solution to an imprecisely formulated problem. A simple case in point is the problem of parking a car. Generally, humans can park a car rather easily because the final position of the car is not specified exactly. If it were specified to within, say, a few millimeters and a fraction of a degree, it would take hours or days of maneuvering and precise measurements of distance and angular position to solve the problem. What this simple example points to is the fact that, in general, high precision carries a high cost. The challenge, then, is to exploit the tolerance for imprecision by devising methods of computation which lead to an acceptable solution at low cost. By its nature, soft computing is much closer to human reasoning than the traditional modes of computation. At this juncture, the major components of soft computing are fuzzy logic (FL), neural network theory (NN), and probabilistic reasoning techniques (PR), including genetic algorithms, chaos theory, and part of learning theory. Increasingly, these techniques are used in combination to achieve significant improvement in performance and adaptability. Among the important application areas for soft computing are control systems, expert systems, data compression techniques, image processing, and decision support systems. It may be argued that it is soft computing, rather than the traditional hard computing, that should be viewed as the foundation for artificial intelligence. In the years ahead, this may well become a widely held position.

Zadeh, Lofti A.↗