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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2023

Adaptive, Active Learning, and Multifidelity Monte Carlo Methods in the MOOSE Stochastic Tools Module

MOOSE is an open-source computational platform for constructing multi-physics models and executing them in a massively parallel fashion. It has a stochastic tools module (STM) for forward/inverse uncertainty quantification (UQ) and surrogate modeling. This presentation details some recent developments to the STM with respect to the implementation of adaptive, active learning, and multifidelity Monte Carlo methods for forward UQ of computational models. Specifically, the adaptive Monte Carlo methods include Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)-driven algorithms like adaptive importance sampling and parallelized subset simulation for statistical QoI estimation, rare events analysis, and stochastic gradient-free optimization. The active learning methods include Gaussian Process (GP) surrogates and their training via Adam optimization, design of acquisition functions, and integration with samplers like Monte Carlo, adaptive importance, and parallelized subset simulation. These active learning methods are also designed to work in a batch mode, wherein, the required calls to the full computational model are executed in parallel whenever a user-specified batch size is met. The multifidelity methods in STM are broadly divided into two categories: hierarchical, where a defined hierarchy exists among the low-fidelity models, and peer, where all the low-fidelity models are treated equally. A GP surrogate is used to learn the differences between the low- and high-fidelity models in both multifidelity categories, and acquisition functions from the active learning classes are used to decide whether to rely on a low-fidelity model or call the expensive high-fidelity model. Alongside the software description and usage, applications are also presented to nuclear engineering computational models including a TRISO nuclear fuel particle, a reactor pressure vessel, and a heat-pipe microreactor.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Probing multi-dimensional composition spaces in search of strong metallic alloys

Refractory complex concentrated alloys (RCCA) offer exceptionally high-temperature strength compared to pure metals and dilute alloys, but predictive theory for RCCA design is lacking. We present large-scale molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations of crystal plasticity to explore alloy compositions for maximum mechanical strength, focusing on Fe-Ta-W and Nb-Ta-Mo-W alloy families modeled with Embedded Atom Model (EAM) and Spectral Neighbor Analysis Potentials (SNAP). To efficiently guide the search for strong alloy compositions, we employ iterative optimization using Gaussian process regression. Many simulated RCCA compositions exhibit pronounced cocktail strengthening, with strengths surpassing their strongest constituent metal, tungsten. Contrary to expectations, the highest strength is found on binary edges of the RCCA composition space. Detailed analyses of atomistic simulations reveal that, similar to pure BCC metals, plastic response in RCCA is primarily governed by screw dislocations. However, at large strains, dislocation multiplication and interactions (Taylor hardening) become the dominant mechanisms contributing to RCCA strength.

Materials science↗

NASA NTRS1992

An extended-source spatial acquisition process based on maximum likelihood criterion for planetary optical communications

This paper describes an extended-source spatial acquisition process based on the maximum likelihood criterion for interplanetary optical communications. The objective is to use the sun-lit Earth image as a receiver beacon and point the transmitter laser to the Earth-based receiver to establish a communication path. The process assumes the existence of a reference image. The uncertainties between the reference image and the received image are modeled as additive white Gaussian disturbances. It has been shown that the optimal spatial acquisition requires solving two nonlinear equations to estimate the coordinates of the transceiver from the received camera image in the transformed domain. The optimal solution can be obtained iteratively by solving two linear equations. Numerical results using a sample sun-lit Earth as a reference image demonstrate that sub-pixel resolutions can be achieved in a high disturbance environment. Spatial resolution is quantified by Cramer-Rao lower bounds.

Yan, Tsun-Yee↗

NASA NTRS2018

Simulation of Charge Collection to Spacecraft Surfaces: Freja Satellite

As spacecraft travel through plasma, spacecraft surfaces become charged by the collection of charged particles. This process is referred to as Surface Charging. These charges can be detrimental to the vehicle's electronic subsystems as they present a threat of electrostatic discharge (ESD) to onboard circuitry. The process of Surface Charging is complex and is affected by many elements. The charging of each surface is unique. The potential of an individual surface is dependent upon many variables including but not limited to the surface's geometry, material and its location. Each surface also has unique interactions with the surrounding plasma. Other factors that play large roles in the charging process is the density and temperature of plasma ions and electrons. Using Nascap-2k, a model of the Freja satellite has been constructed, and its auroral plasma environment has been imitated to simulate surface charging characteristics. The charging process of the Freja satellite has been modeled iteratively with incremental changes in both the Maxwellian electron temperature (eV) as well as the Gaussian electron energy (eV). This study provides an analysis of the sensitivity between spacecraft surface charging and these two primary variables of electron differential flux.

Wolfley, Olivia H.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Simulation of Charge Collection to Spacecraft Surfaces: Freja Satellite

As spacecraft travel through space plasma, spacecraft surfaces become charged by the collection of charged particles. This process is referred to as Surface Charging. These charges can be detrimental to the vehicle's electronic subsystems as they present a threat of electrostatic discharge (ESD) to onboard circuitry. The process of Surface Charging is complex and is affected by many elements. The charging of each surface is unique. The potential of an individual surface is dependent upon many variables including but not limited to the surface's geometry, material and its location. Each surface also has unique interactions with the surrounding plasma. Other factors that play large roles in the charging process is the density and temperature of plasma ions and electrons. Using Nascap-2k, a model of the Freja satellite has been constructed, and its auroral plasma environment has been imitated to simulate surface charging characteristics. The charging process of the Freja satellite has been modeled iteratively with incremental changes in both the Maxwellian electron temperature (eV) as well as the Gaussian electron energy (eV). This study provides an analysis of the sensitivity between spacecraft surface charging and these two primary variables of electron differential flux.

Wolfley, Olivia Hope↗

NASA NTRS1990

Rough surface scattering results based on bandpass autocorrelation forms

Surface-height autocorrelation forms such as Gaussian and exponential are often used in studies of near-normal incidence rough-surface scattering. Such models require the existence of a constant, or DC, value in the spectrum. The consequences of autocorrelation forms that correspond to spectral processes that are essentially bandpass in nature are examined. One such process is that of ocean wind waves. In this case, the spectral components do not extend down to zero frequency. The physical optics backscatter theory is reexamined relative to such autocorrelation functions. Experimental results obtained from a wavetank are compared to the autocorrelation model used in the analysis. The analysis indicates that Gaussian correlation length or mean-square slope is not an appropriate parameter for narrowband conditions and that significant slope is a more relevant parameter. Inherent in the deep-phase assumption is some form of slope dependency. The analysis given (and variants thereof) can be used to provide insight into the physical effects of separate spectral components and of spectral directionality.

Miller, Lee S.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty Quantification for Data-Driven Machine Learning Models in Nuclear Engineering Applications: Where We Are and What Do We Need?

Machine learning (ML) has been leveraged to tackle a diverse range of tasks in almost all branches of nuclear engineering. Many of the successes in ML applications can be attributed to the recent performance breakthroughs in deep learning, the growing availability of computational power, data, and easy-to-use ML libraries. However, these empirical successes have often outpaced our formal understanding of the ML algorithms. An important but under-rated area is uncertainty quantification (UQ) of ML. ML-based models are subject to approximation uncertainty when they are used to make predictions, due to sources including but not limited to, data noise, data coverage, extrapolation, imperfect model architecture and the stochastic training process. The goal of this paper is to clearly explain and illustrate the importance of UQ of ML. We will elucidate the differences in the basic concepts of UQ of physics-based models and data-driven ML models. Various sources of uncertainties in physical modeling and data-driven modeling will be discussed, demonstrated, and compared. We will also present and demonstrate a few techniques to quantify the ML prediction uncertainties, including Monte Carlo dropout, deep ensemble, Bayesian neural networks, Gaussian Processes and conformal prediction. Lastly, we will discuss the need for building a verification, validation and UQ framework to establish ML credibility.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Reinforcement Learning via Gaussian Processes with Neural Network Dual Kernels

While deep neural networks (DNNs) and Gaussian Processes (GPs) are both popularly utilized to solve problems in reinforcement learning, both approaches feature undesirable drawbacks for challenging problems. DNNs learn complex non-linear embeddings, but do not naturally quantify uncertainty and are often data-inefficient to train. GPs infer posterior distributions over functions, but popular kernels exhibit limited expressivity on complex and high-dimensional data. Fortunately, recently discovered conjugate and neural tangent kernel functions encode the behavior of overparameterized neural networks in the kernel domain. We demonstrate that these kernels can be efficiently applied to regression and reinforcement learning problems by analyzing a baseline case study.We apply GPs with neural network dual kernels to solve reinforcement learning tasks for the first time. We demonstrate, using the well understood mountain-car problem, that GPs empowered with dual kernels perform at least as well as those using the conventional radial basis function kernel. Finally, we conjecture that by inheriting the probabilistic rigor of GPs and the powerful embedding properties of DNNs, GPs using NN dual kernels will empower future reinforcement learning models on difficult domains.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Short-Term Load Forecasting Considering EV Charging Loads with Prediction Interval Evaluation

Short-term load forecasting plays a critical role in power system planning and operation. Along with the electrification of various loads, electricity demands are becoming increasingly hard to predict. Notably, the recent rise in electric vehicles (EVs) has further contributed to this unpredictability. To address this issue, this paper proposes a probabilistic load forecasting strategy utilizing Gaussian process regression, structured in a day-ahead manner. While many works focus on deterministic prediction, probabilistic forecasting offers additional insights into variability and uncertainty, enabling more flexible and reliable operation for power systems. To enhance the accuracy of the load forecasting model, the inputs include features related to EV charging habits as well as commonly used weather information. The load forecasting results are evaluated using various metrics, including conventional ones that assess the accuracy of point forecasts, as well as additional metrics that test the reliability of prediction intervals. The proposed load forecasting method is finally tested on real residential power consumption data and EV charging data sampled from real-world sources. The results prove that the new features can greatly improve the performance of the load forecasting method.

electrical vehicle↗

DOE OSTI2020

SUGAR: An improved empirical model of Type Ia supernovae based on spectral features

Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) are widely used to measure the expansion of the Universe. Improving distance measurements of SNe Ia is one technique to better constrain the acceleration of expansion and determine its physical nature. This document develops a new SNe Ia spectral energy distribution (SED) model, called the SUpernova Generator And Reconstructor (SUGAR), which improves the spectral description of SNe Ia, and consequently could improve the distance measurements. This model was constructed from SNe Ia spectral properties and spectrophotometric data from the Nearby Supernova Factory collaboration. In a first step, a principal component analysis-like method was used on spectral features measured at maximum light, which allowed us to extract the intrinsic properties of SNe Ia. Next, the intrinsic properties were used to extract the average extinction curve. Third, an interpolation using Gaussian processes facilitated using data taken at different epochs during the lifetime of an SN Ia and then projecting the data on a fixed time grid. Finally, the three steps were combined to build the SED model as a function of time and wavelength. This is the SUGAR model. Results. The main advancement in SUGAR is the addition of two additional parameters to characterize SNe Ia variability. The first is tied to the properties of SNe Ia ejecta velocity and the second correlates with their calcium lines. The addition of these parameters, as well as the high quality of the Nearby Supernova Factory data, makes SUGAR an accurate and efficient model for describing the spectra of normal SNe Ia as they brighten and fade. The performance of this model makes it an excellent SED model for experiments like the Zwicky Transient Facility, the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope, or the Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Ion Trapping Studies and Mitigation Strategies for the EIC ERL-Based Strong Hadron Cooler

An Energy Recovery Linac based strong hadron cooler was previously considered for the Electron-Ion Collider. The required electron beam parameters for variable-energy strong hadron cooling place significant constraints on ion trapping and collective effects. This paper presents initial studies of these constraints through a combination of analytical modelling and numerical simulations of ion production, trapping behaviour, and mitigation strategies. A multi-bunch tracking framework based on ELEGANT with the ionEffects module is used to simulate machine operation over millisecond time scales, corresponding to more than 3 × 10^5 electron bunches. The simulations include modelling of ionisation processes together with transverse electron–ion dynamics, allowing the evolution and accumulation of ions to be investigated. Analytical expressions based on Gaussian beam distributions are used to estimate ion trapping conditions and benchmark the simulation results. A bi-periodic bunch spacing scheme is also investigated as a possible mitigation method by detuning the ion oscillation frequency. These studies provide an initial assessment of ion trapping in the strong hadron cooler and demonstrate possible approaches for reducing beam–ion effects.

Bi, R. [Lancaster University, Cockcroft Institute]↗

NASA NTRS1976

A simulation of water pollution model parameter estimation

A parameter estimation procedure for a water pollution transport model is elaborated. A two-dimensional instantaneous-release shear-diffusion model serves as representative of a simple transport process. Pollution concentration levels are arrived at via modeling of a remote-sensing system. The remote-sensed data are simulated by adding Gaussian noise to the concentration level values generated via the transport model. Model parameters are estimated from the simulated data using a least-squares batch processor. Resolution, sensor array size, and number and location of sensor readings can be found from the accuracies of the parameter estimates.

Kibler, J. F.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Thermal Line Shift and Broadening of Ho(3+) in Y3AI5O12 and Lu3AIO12

The interaction between the active ion and the host lattice manifests itself in two distinct ways: the static interaction with the crystal field that causes the splitting of the free ion energy levels and the active interaction through the surrounding phonon system that produces temperature dependent characteristics in the optical spectrum of the ion (e.g. line broadening and line shift). The strength of the splitting depends heavily on the electronic configuration of the atom. The model give by McCumber and Sturge describes the thermal effects on line width and position above 77 K with Raman scattering of Debye model phonons. These processes predict a Lorentzian line shape. However, below 77 K the principal contributions are from crystal inhomogeneities that result in a Gaussian line shape. We have investigated the experimental Stark levels as well as the thermal effects on the line width and the position of trivalent holmium ions in both yttrium aluminum garnet, Y3Al5O12 (YAG) and lutetium aluminum garnet, Lu3Al5O12 (LuAG) crystals. We have compared the Stark levels of the (5)I(6) state, and the thermal line shift and broadening of an isolated transition (Z2 to X13) between the (5)I(8) and (5)I(6) stark levels in these crystals. This transition occurs in the near infrared region at approximately 1117 nm.

Snoke, Elizabeth R.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Enter Gaussian Mixture Modeling Extensions for Improved False Discovery Rate Estimation in GC-MS Metabolomics

Identifying small molecules (e.g., metabolites) is key towards driving scientific advancement in metabolomics, and gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC-MS) is an analytic method that may be applied to facilitate this process. The typical GC-MS identification workflow involves quantifying the similarity of an observed sample spectrum and other features (e.g. retention index) to that of several references, noting the compound of the best-matching reference spectrum as the identified metabolite. While a deluge of similarity metrics exists, none characterize the error rate of generated identifications, thereby presenting an unknown risk of false identification or discovery. To quantify this unknown risk, we propose a model-based framework for estimating the false discovery rate (FDR) among a set of identifications. Extending the traditional mixture modeling framework, our method incorporates both similarity score and experimental information in estimating the FDR. We apply these models to identification lists derived from across 548 samples of varying complexity and sample type (e.g., fungal species, standard mixtures, etc.), comparing their performance to that of the traditional Gaussian mixture model (GMM). Through simulation, we additionally assess the impact of reference library size on the accuracy of FDR estimates. In comparing the best performing model extensions to the GMM, our results indicate relative decreases in median absolute estimation error (MAE) ranging from 12% to 70%, based on comparisons of the median MAEs across all hit-lists. Results indicate that these relative performance improvements generally hold despite library size, however FDR estimation error typically worsens as the set of reference compounds diminishes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Fast and accurate reduced-order modeling of a MOOSE-based additive manufacturing model with operator learning

One predominant challenge in additive manufacturing (AM) is to achieve specific material properties by manipulating manufacturing process parameters during the runtime. Such manipulation tends to increase the computational load imposed on existing simulation tools employed in AM. The goal of the present work is to construct a fast and accurate reduced-order model (ROM) for an AM model developed within the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) framework, ultimately reducing the time/cost of AM control and optimization processes. Our adoption of the operator learning (OL) approach enabled us to learn a family of differential equations produced by altering process variables in the laser’s Gaussian point heat source. More specifically, we used the Fourier neural operator (FNO) and deep operator network (DeepONet) to develop ROMs for time-dependent responses. Furthermore, we benchmarked the performance of these OL methods against a conventional deep neural network (DNN)-based ROM. Ultimately, we found that OL methods offer comparable performance and, in terms of accuracy and generalizability, even outperform DNN at predicting scalar model responses. The DNN-based ROM afforded the fastest training time. Furthermore, all the ROMs were faster than the original MOOSE model yet still provided accurate predictions. FNO had a smaller mean prediction error than DeepONet, with a larger variance for time-dependent responses. Unlike DNN, both FNO and DeepONet were able to simulate time series data without the need for dimensionality reduction techniques. Finally, the present work can help facilitate the AM optimization process by enabling faster execution of simulation tools while still preserving evaluation accuracy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Jet fragmentation transverse momentum distributions in pp and p-Pb collisions at $ \sqrt{s}$, $\sqrt{s_{\mathrm{NN}}}$ = 5.02 TeV

Jet fragmentation transverse momentum ( j T ) distributions are measured in proton-proton (pp) and proton-lead (p-Pb) collisions at s NN = 5 . 02 TeV with the ALICE experiment at the LHC. Jets are reconstructed with the ALICE tracking detectors and electromagnetic calorimeter using the anti- k T algorithm with resolution parameter R = 0 . 4 in the pseudorapidity range |η| < 0 . 25. The j T values are calculated for charged particles inside a fixed cone with a radius R = 0 . 4 around the reconstructed jet axis. The measured j T distributions are compared with a variety of parton-shower models. Herwig and P ythia 8 based models describe the data well for the higher j T region, while they underestimate the lower j T region. The j T distributions are further characterised by fitting them with a function composed of an inverse gamma function for higher j T values (called the “wide component”), related to the perturbative component of the fragmentation process, and with a Gaussian for lower j T values (called the “narrow component”), predominantly connected to the hadronisation process. The width of the Gaussian has only a weak dependence on jet transverse momentum, while that of the inverse gamma function increases with increasing jet transverse momentum. For the narrow component, the measured trends are successfully described by all models except for Herwig. For the wide component, Herwig and PYTHIA 8 based models slightly underestimate the data for the higher jet transverse momentum region. These measurements set constraints on models of jet fragmentation and hadronisation.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRS1972

Information extraction techniques for multi-spectral scanner data

Multispectral data recognition and information extraction problems considered are: (1) signature extension for improved recognition processing over large areas; (2) choice of density functions for recognition decision rules; (3) channel selection for cost reduction; and (4) radiation balance mapping for interpretation of wide spectrum scanner data. The formulation of a simulation model and reprocessing of both aircraft and space data reduces scan angle variations and extends signatures from one altitude to another. Comparison of the usefulness of empirical density functions and that of Gaussian density functions for recognition processing establishes the advantages of normal assumption for individual fields in processing of multispectral scanner data. Also reported is a procedure for producing radiation balance maps from wide spectra by analyzing energy budgets of vegetation and other surface materials through partitioning net absorbed radiant energy and estimating incoming power density at both short and long wavelengths.

Malila, W. A.↗

NASA NTRS1988

International Conference on Advances in Communication and Control Systems, 1st, Washington, DC, June 18-20, 1987, Proceedings

Theoretical models of communication and control systems are discussed in reviews and reports. Topics addressed include smoothing and identification for random fields, the information and coding capacities of mismatched Gaussian channels, recursive least-squares estimation and Kalman filtering by systolic arrays, Kemp echo digital filters, a periodic test-scheduling scheme for communication and queuing processes, and receivers for direct-sequence systems. Consideration is given to a distributed-parameter model for detecting cracks in rotors, active control of aeroelastic systems governed by functional differential equations, robust multivariable control of large space structures, finite-rank relatively bounded perturbations of semigroup generators, and sensitivity analysis of convex optimal-control problems.

Declaris, Nicholas↗