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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Future evolution of virtual water trading in the United States electricity sector

Abstract Future transformations in the electricity sector could entail major shifts in power sector technology mixes and electricity trade, with consequences for the trading of virtual water. Previous virtual water trade studies largely focus on historical timeframes. We explore, for the first time, future—through 2050—virtual water trade driven by electricity trade under a range of future electricity sector transformation scenarios using the United States as an example. Under a business-as-usual scenario, virtual water trading in 2050 decreases by 3% relative to 2015 levels. By contrast, virtual water trading increases respectively by 3%, 26%, and 32%, in scenarios characterized by higher socioeconomic growth, higher potential for transmission expansion, and low-carbon transitions. These increases are driven by electricity generation expansion in the western U.S., resulting in higher virtual water trade to the east. In addition, we find that as electricity generation shifts west, an increased amount of nonrenewable groundwater will be consumed to generate electricity that is supplied to the east. Independent of scenario, the US electricity grid largely relies on virtual water exports from only a few states. Our study highlights the need for integrated and national strategies to manage the water and electric systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

CO 2 fertilization of crops offsets yield losses due to future surface ozone damage and climate change

Tropospheric ozone (O 3 ) is harmful to plant productivity and negatively impacts crop yields. O3 concentrations are projected to decrease globally in the optimistic Representative Concentration Pathway of 2.6 W m –2 (RCP2.6) but increase globally following the high-emission scenario under the RCP8.5, with substantial implications for global food security. The damaging effect of O 3 on future crop yield is affected by CO 2 fertilization and climate change, and their interactions for RCP scenarios have yet to be quantified. In this study, we used the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator modified to include crops (JULES-crop) to quantify the impacts, and relative importance of present-day and future O3, CO 2 concentration and meteorology on crop production at the regional scale until 2100 following RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. We focus on eight major crop-producing regions that cover the production of wheat, soybean, maize, and rice. Our results show that CO 2 alone has the largest effect on regional yields, followed by climate and O 3 . However, the CO 2 fertilization effect is offset by the negative impact of tropospheric O 3 in regions with high O 3 concentrations, such as South Asia and China. Simulated crop yields in 2050 were compared with Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) statistics to investigate the differences between a socioeconomic and a biophysical process-based approach. Results showed that FAO estimates are closer to our JULES-crop RCP8.5 scenario. This study demonstrates that air pollution could be the biggest threat to future food production and highlights an urgent policy need to mitigate the threat of climate change and O 3 pollution on food security.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Historical evaluation and future projections of compound heatwave and drought extremes over the conterminous United States in CMIP6 *

Abstract Independently, both droughts and heatwaves can induce severe impacts on human and natural systems. However, when these two climate extremes occur concurrently in a given region, their compound impacts are often more pronounced. With the improvement in both the spatiotemporal resolution and representation of complex climate processes in the global climate models (GCMs), they are increasingly used to study future changes in these extremes and associated regional impacts. However, GCM selection for such impact assessments is generally based on historical performance and/or future mean changes, without considering individual or compound extremes. In contrast, this study evaluates historical performance and projected changes in heatwaves, droughts, and compound heatwave-droughts using an ensemble of GCMs from the latest Phase 6 of Coupled Models Intercomparison Project at a regional scale across the conterminous United States. Additionally, we explore the inter-model differences in the projected changes that are associated with various characteristics of extremes and the choice of drought indices. Our analysis reveals considerable variation among the GCMs, as well as substantial differences in the projected changes based on the choice of drought indices and region of interest. For example, the projected increases in both the frequency and intensity of drought and associated compound extreme days, based on the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index far exceed those derived from the standard precipitation index. Further, the largest changes in the frequency of compound extremes are projected over the Southwest, South Central, and parts of the Southeast while the smallest changes are projected over the Northeast. Overall, this study provides important insights for the interpretation and selection of GCMs for future assessment studies that are crucial for the development of regional adaptation strategies in the face of climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

An uncertain future change in aridity over the tropics

Abstract An ensemble of climate models from phase six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project shows that temperature and potential evapotranspiration (PET) are projected to increase globally towards the end of the 21st century. However, climate models show a spatially heterogeneous change in precipitation over the tropics. Consequently, future changes in aridity (a measure of water availability) are complex and location-dependent. We assess future changes in aridity using three climate models and several single-forcing experiments. Near-term (2021–2040) changes in aridity are small, and we focus instead on its long-term (2081–2100) changes. We show that the increase in greenhouse gases (GHG) primarily explains the spatial pattern, magnitude and ensemble spread of the long-term future changes in aridity. On this timescale, the effects of changes in emissions of anthropogenic aerosols are moderate compared to the effects of increases in atmospheric GHG concentrations. Model diversity in the responses to GHG concentration is large over northern Africa and North and South America. We suggest the large uncertainty is due to differences between models in simulating the effects of an increase in GHG concentrations on surface air temperature over the North Atlantic Ocean, on the interhemispheric temperature gradient, and on PET over North and South America.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2019

Threats to a Colorado river provisioning basin under coupled future climate and societal scenarios

Clean, reliable supplies of water are critical to the sustainability and resilience of communities, including water needed for energy and food production, industry, drinking water, and other human and ecological needs. However, water infrastructure and management in the United States are largely optimized for historic conditions—designed and operated to respond to social needs, and past mean and extreme streamflow, which may no longer apply in the future. Temperature, precipitation, ecosystem dynamics, energy and food production, and social systems are all experiencing changes, which cumulatively affect the security of water supply. Here, we examine the impact of these changes in a provisioning basin in the arid Southwest, the San Juan River, which supplies water, food, and energy to the Colorado River and the Rio Grande. Our analysis applies a multi-model framework to examine future climate and water use scenarios. Results demonstrate that the San Juan River basin could experience significant disruptions to water deliveries (-12% to -48% for the drier models) and shortages that exceed manageable thresholds (53% to 73% of water in shorted years), potentially affecting both the local basin as well as other regions that receive water and energy from the San Juan. While water stress metrics vary across the scenarios, results indicate the need for government, industry, and communities to consider options for adapting to water supply shifts. These results raise important questions regarding the resilience of water resources in basins across the West under future scenarios and implications for energy, food, and other water supply needs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The rise of electric vehicles—2020 status and future expectations

Electric vehicles (EVs) are experiencing a rise in popularity over the past few years as the technology has matured and costs have declined, and support for clean transportation has promoted awareness, increased charging opportunities, and facilitated EV adoption. Suitably, a vast body of literature has been produced exploring various facets of EVs and their role in transportation and energy systems. This paper provides a timely and comprehensive review of scientific studies looking at various aspects of EVs, including: (a) an overview of the status of the light-duty-EV market and current projections for future adoption; (b) insights on market opportunities beyond light-duty EVs; (c) a review of cost and performance evolution for batteries, power electronics, and electric machines that are key components of EV success; (d) charging-infrastructure status with a focus on modeling and studies that are used to project charging-infrastructure requirements and the economics of public charging; (e) an overview of the impact of EV charging on power systems at multiple scales, ranging from bulk power systems to distribution networks; (f) insights into life-cycle cost and emissions studies focusing on EVs; and (g) future expectations and synergies between EVs and other emerging trends and technologies. The goal of this paper is to provide readers with a snapshot of the current state of the art and help navigate this vast literature by comparing studies critically and comprehensively and synthesizing general insights. This detailed review paints a positive picture for the future of EVs for on-road transportation, and the authors remain hopeful that remaining technology, regulatory, societal, behavioral, and business-model barriers can be addressed over time to support a transition toward cleaner, more efficient, and affordable transportation solutions for all.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improving future travel demand projections: a pathway with an open science interdisciplinary approach

Transport accounts for 24% of global CO 2 emissions from fossil fuels. Governments face challenges in developing feasible and equitable mitigation strategies to reduce energy consumption and manage the transition to low-carbon transport systems. To meet the local and global transport emission reduction targets, policymakers need more realistic/sophisticated future projections of transport demand to better understand the speed and depth of the actions required to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. In this paper, we argue that the lack of access to high-quality data on the current and historical travel demand and interdisciplinary research hinders transport planning and sustainable transitions toward low-carbon transport futures. We call for a greater interdisciplinary collaboration agenda across open data, data science, behaviour modelling, and policy analysis. These advancemets can reduce some of the major uncertainties and contribute to evidence-based solutions toward improving the sustainability performance of future transport systems. The paper also points to some needed efforts and directions to provide robust insights to policymakers. We provide examples of how these efforts could benefit from the International Transport Energy Modeling Open Data project and open science interdisciplinary collaborations.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Current challenges and future opportunities of phage therapy

ABSTRACT Antibiotic resistance is a major public health challenge worldwide, whose implications for global health might be devastating if novel antibacterial strategies are not quickly developed. As natural predators of bacteria, (bacterio)phages may play an essential role in escaping such a dreadful future. The rising problem of antibiotic resistance has revived the interest in phage therapy and important developments have been achieved over the last years. But where do we stand today and what can we expect from phage therapy in the future? This is the question we set to answer in this review. Here, we scour the outcomes of human phage therapy clinical trials and case reports, and address the major barriers that stand in the way of using phages in clinical settings. We particularly address the potential of phage resistance to hinder phage therapy and discuss future avenues to explore the full capacity of phage therapy.

Pires, Diana P.↗
DOE OSTI2016

European sea bass show behavioural resilience to near-future ocean acidification

Ocean acidification (OA)-caused by rising concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO 2 )-is thought to be a major threat to marine ecosystems and has been shown to induce behavioural alterations in fish. Here we show behavioural resilience to near-future OA in a commercially important and migratory marine finfish, the Sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax). Sea bass were raised from eggs at 19 °C in ambient or near-future OA (1000 μatm pCO 2 ) conditions and n = 270 fish were observed 59-68 days post-hatch using automated tracking from video. Fish reared under ambient conditions, OA conditions, and fish reared in ambient conditions but tested in OA water showed statistically similar movement patterns, and reacted to their environment and interacted with each other in comparable ways. Thus our findings indicate behavioural resilience to near-future OA in juvenile sea bass. Moreover, simulated agent-based models indicate that our analysis methods are sensitive to subtle changes in fish behaviour. Lastly, it is now important to determine whether the absences of any differences persist under more ecologically relevant circumstances and in contexts which have a more direct bearing on individual fitness.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Study of deeply virtual Compton scattering at the future electron-ion collider

This study presents the impact of future measurements of deeply virtual Compton scattering (DVCS) with the ePIC detector at the electron-ion collider (EIC), currently under construction at Brookhaven National Laboratory. The considered process is sensitive to generalized parton distributions (GPDs), the understanding of which is a cornerstone of the EIC physics program. Our study marks a milestone in the preparation of DVCS measurements at EIC and provides a reference point for future analyses. In addition to presenting distributions of basic kinematic variables obtained with the latest ePIC design and simulation software, we examine the impact of future measurements on the understanding of nucleon tomography and DVCS Compton form factors, which are directly linked to GPDs. We also assess the impact of radiative corrections and background contribution arising from exclusive π 0 production.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Future prospects for constraining nuclear matter parameters with gravitational waves

The gravitational wave emission from the merging binary neutron star system GW170817 arrived full of tidal information which can be used to probe the fundamental ultradense nuclear physics residing in these stars. In previous work, we used two-dimensional correlations between nuclear matter parameters and tidal deformabilities of neutron stars applying specifically to GW170817 to derive constraints on the former. Here, we extend this analysis by finding similar correlations for varying chirp masses, the dominant determining factor in the frequency evolution of the inspiral, such that one can apply the same method to future detections. We estimate how accurately one can measure nuclear parameters with future gravitational wave interferometers and show how such measurements can be improved by combining multiple events. We find that bounds on the nuclear parameters with future observations can improve from the current one with GW170817 only by ~30% due to the existence of systematic errors caused mainly by the remaining uncertainty in the equation of state near and just above the nuclear saturation density. As a result, we show that such systematic errors can be reduced by considering multidimensional correlations among nuclear parameters and tidal deformabilities with various neutron star masses.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

SMEFT probes in future precision DIS experiments

We analyze the potential of future high-energy deep-inelastic scattering (DIS) experiments to probe new physics within the framework of the Standard Model effective field theory (SMEFT). We perform a detailed study of SMEFT probes at a future Large Hadron-electron Collider (LHeC) and a Future Circular lepton-hadron Collider (FCC-eh) machine, and extend previous simulations of the potential of an electron-ion collider (EIC) to include 𝑍-boson vertex corrections. Precision 𝑍-pole constraints on vertex corrections suffer from numerous degeneracies in the Wilson-coefficient parameter space. We find that both the LHeC and the FCC-eh can help remove these degeneracies present in the existing global fits of precision 𝑍-pole observables and LHC data. The FCC-eh and LHeC will in many cases improve upon the existing precision electroweak bounds on the SMEFT parameter space. This highlights the important role of precision DIS measurements for new physics studies.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Testing lepton flavor universality at future Z factories

As one of the hypothetical principles in the Standard Model (SM), lepton flavor universality (LFU) should be tested with a precision as high as possible such that the physics violating this principle can be fully examined. The run of a Z factory at a future e + e − collider, such as the Circular Electron-Positron Collider or Future Circular Collider (electron/positron), provides a great opportunity to perform this task because of the large statistics and high reconstruction efficiencies for b hadrons at the Z pole. In this paper, we present a systematic study on the LFU test in future Z factories. The goal is threefold. First, we study the sensitivities of measuring the LFU-violating observables of b → c τ ν , i.e., R J / ψ , R D s , R D s * , and R Λ c , where τ decays muonically. For this purpose, we develop the strategies for event reconstruction, based on the track information significantly. Second, we explore the sensitivity robustness against detector performance and its potential improvement with the message of event shape or beyond the b -hadron decays. A picture is drawn on the variation of analysis sensitivities with the detector tracking resolution and soft photon detectability, and the impact of Fox-Wolfram moments is studied on the measurement of relevant flavor events. Finally, we interpret the projected sensitivities in the SM effective field theory, by combining the LFU tests of b → c τ ν and the measurements of b → s τ + τ − and b → s ν ¯ ν . We show that the limits on the LFU-violating energy scale can be pushed up to ∼ O ( 10 ) TeV for ≲ O ( 1 ) Wilson coefficients at Tera- Z . Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2010

Constraining fundamental physics with future CMB experiments

The Planck experiment will soon provide a very accurate measurement of cosmic microwave background anisotropies. This will let cosmologists determine most of the cosmological parameters with unprecedented accuracy. Future experiments will improve and complement the Planck data with better angular resolution and better polarization sensitivity. This unexplored region of the CMB power spectrum contains information on many parameters of interest, including neutrino mass, the number of relativistic particles at recombination, the primordial helium abundance, and the injection of additional ionizing photons by dark matter self-annihilation. We review the imprint of each parameter on the CMB and forecast the constraints achievable by future experiments by performing a Monte Carlo analysis on synthetic realizations of simulated data. We find that next generation satellite missions such as CMBPol could provide valuable constraints with a precision close to that expected in current and near future laboratory experiments. Finally, we discuss the implications of this intersection between cosmology and fundamental physics.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Intelligent Buildings of the Future: Cyberaware, Deep Learning Powered, and Human Interacting

This study discuss, intelligent buildings are quickly becoming cohesive and integral entities of cyber-physical ecosystems. Modern buildings adapt to internal and external elements and thrive on ever increasing data sources such as ubiquitous smart devices and sensors while mimicking various approaches previously known in software, hardware, and bio inspired systems. This article provides an overview of intelligent buildings of the future from a range of perspectives. First, a brief overview of prospects of U.S. and world energy consumption, concepts of smart buildings as integral entities of smart grids is presented. This is followed by a discussion of the role of connectivity and interoperability as well as current issues and solutions in the areas of security, resilience, and humans in realm of intelligent buildings. The article dives into detail about the intelligence aspect of intelligent buildings of the future. The learning and predictive Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques behind many of the concepts of intelligent buildings are reviewed, including the latest techniques such as deep learning. As a concrete application of AI in the realm of intelligent buildings, prediction of energy consumption/load/demand, which is a much researched application of AI in the realm of intelligent buildings, is elaborated. The discussion is focused on most recent advancements of AI based demand prediction and the overview consists of existing research and a case study conducted by the authors for deep learning based demand prediction. Then, the article discusses the role of humans in intelligent buildings. Different types of human-building interactions are identified. Further, the article presents how each type of human-building interaction can benefit the overall control of intelligent buildings. The section is concluded by elaborating a case study conducted by the authors to achieve effective and efficient human-building interaction. The article is concluded with compilation of future insights based on latest technological advancements in U.S. industry and government.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2016

Design of a Canted-Cosine-Theta Superconducting Dipole Magnet for Future Colliders

A four-layer canted-cosine-theta 16-T dipole has been designed as a possible candidate for future hadron colliders. The design maintains part of the future-circular-collider magnet requirements, i.e., a 50 mm clear bore and 16 T operating at 1.9 K. The magnet intercepts Lorentz forces with an internal structure of ribs and spars, minimizes conductor, and reduces the number of layers and magnet size by using wide cables. The role of iron and its impact on field and magnet size is discussed. A three-dimensional magnetic analysis was carried out for 1-in-1 and 2-in-1 designs including a structural analysis for the 1-in-1 case. Furthermore, thoughts on future improvements during winding are also discussed.

16T↗
DOE OSTI2014

Regional analysis of drought and heat impacts on forests: current and future science directions

Abstract Accurate assessments of forest response to current and future climate and human actions are needed at regional scales. Predicting future impacts on forests will require improved analysis of species‐level adaptation, resilience, and vulnerability to mortality. Land system models can be enhanced by creating trait‐based groupings of species that better represent climate sensitivity, such as risk of hydraulic failure from drought. This emphasizes the need for more coordinated in situ and remote sensing observations to track changes in ecosystem function, and to improve model inputs, spatio‐temporal diagnosis, and predictions of future conditions, including implications of actions to mitigate climate change.

Law, Beverly E.↗
DOE OSTI2015

Back to the future: using historical climate variation to project near-term shifts in habitat suitable for coast redwood

Studies that mimic the effect of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems often use climate projections from downscaled global climate models (GCMs). These simulations are generally too coarse to capture patterns of fine-scale climate variation, such as the sharp coastal energy and moisture gradients associated with wind-driven upwelling of cold water. Coastal upwelling may limit future increases in coastal temperatures, compromising GCMs' ability to provide realistic scenarios of future climate in these coastal ecosystems. Taking advantage of naturally occurring variability in the high-resolution historic climatic record, we developed multiple fine-scale scenarios of California climate that maintain coherent relationships between regional climate and coastal upwelling. We compared these scenarios against coarse resolution GCM projections at a regional scale to evaluate their temporal equivalency. We utilized these historically based scenarios to estimate potential suitable habitat for coast redwood (Sequoia sempervirens D. Don) under 'normal' combinations of temperature and precipitation, and under anomalous combinations representative of potential future climates. We found that a scenario of warmer temperature with historically normal precipitation is equivalent to climate projected by GCMs for California by 2020-2030 and that under these conditions, climatically suitable habitat for coast redwood significantly contracts at the southern end of its current range. Our results indicate that historical climate data provide a high-resolution alternative to downscaled GCM outputs for near-term ecological forecasts. This method may be particularly useful in other regions where local climate is strongly influenced by ocean-atmosphere dynamics that are not represented by coarse-scale GCMs.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗