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NASA NTRS2005

A Posteriori Correction of Forecast and Observation Error Variances

Proposed method of total observation and forecast error variance correction is based on the assumption about normal distribution of "observed-minus-forecast" residuals (O-F), where O is an observed value and F is usually a short-term model forecast. This assumption can be accepted for several types of observations (except humidity) which are not grossly in error. Degree of nearness to normal distribution can be estimated by the symmetry or skewness (luck of symmetry) a(sub 3) = mu(sub 3)/sigma(sup 3) and kurtosis a(sub 4) = mu(sub 4)/sigma(sup 4) - 3 Here mu(sub i) = i-order moment, sigma is a standard deviation. It is well known that for normal distribution a(sub 3) = a(sub 4) = 0.

Rukhovets, Leonid↗

NASA NTRS2004

An Evaluation of the Accuracy of Meteor Shower Forecasts

Brought into being by the recent Leonid meteor storms, meteor shower forecasts are now regarded by many spacecraft projects as necessary inputs into the planning of spacecraft operations. We compare the shower forecasts made by various researchers over the past six years to actual shower observations in an attempt to create an overall picture of forecast accuracy, specifically focusing on the three aspects most important to space vehicles: 1) the time of shower maximum, 2) the half-width (duration), and 3) the maximum Zenith Hourly Rate (ZHR). It will be noted that, while the times of maxima are generally predicted to within several minutes, the peak ZHRs are often overestimated and shower half-widths are frequently not even calculated. The difficulties involved in converting shower ZHRs into the meteoroid fluxes needed to assess spacecraft risk are also discussed.

Cooke, W.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Can High-resolution WRF Simulations Be Used for Short-term Forecasting of Lightning?

A number of research teams have begun to make quasi-operational forecast simulations at high resolution with models such as the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. These model runs have used horizontal meshes of 2-4 km grid spacing, and thus resolved convective storms explicitly. In the light of recent global satellite-based observational studies that reveal robust relationships between total lightning flash rates and integrated amounts of precipitation-size ice hydrometeors in storms, it is natural to inquire about the capabilities of these convection-resolving models in representing the ice hydrometeor fields faithfully. If they do, this might make operational short-term forecasts of lightning activity feasible. We examine high-resolution WRF simulations from several Southeastern cases for which either NLDN or LMA lightning data were available. All the WRF runs use a standard microphysics package that depicts only three ice species, cloud ice, snow and graupel. The realism of the WRF simulations is examined by comparisons with both lightning and radar observations and with additional even higher-resolution cloud-resolving model runs. Preliminary findings are encouraging in that they suggest that WRF often makes convective storms of the proper size in approximately the right location, but they also indicate that higher resolution and better hydrometeor microphysics would be helpful in improving the realism of the updraft strengths, reflectivity and ice hydrometeor fields.

Goodman, S. J.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Problems in the Forecasting of Solar Particle Events for Manned Missions

Manned spaecraft will require a much improved ability to forecast solar particle events. The lead time required will depend on the use to which the forecast is put. Here we discuss problems of forecasting with the lead times of hours to weeks.

forcast problem coronal mass ejections (CMEs) low ↗

NASA NTRS2006

Hurricane Intensity Forecasts with a Global Mesoscale Model on the NASA Columbia Supercomputer

It is known that General Circulation Models (GCMs) have insufficient resolution to accurately simulate hurricane near-eye structure and intensity. The increasing capabilities of high-end computers (e.g., the NASA Columbia Supercomputer) have changed this. In 2004, the finite-volume General Circulation Model at a 1/4 degree resolution, doubling the resolution used by most of operational NWP center at that time, was implemented and run to obtain promising landfall predictions for major hurricanes (e.g., Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne). In 2005, we have successfully implemented the 1/8 degree version, and demonstrated its performance on intensity forecasts with hurricane Katrina (2005). It is found that the 1/8 degree model is capable of simulating the radius of maximum wind and near-eye wind structure, and thereby promising intensity forecasts. In this study, we will further evaluate the model s performance on intensity forecasts of hurricanes Ivan, Jeanne, Karl in 2004. Suggestions for further model development will be made in the end.

Shen, Bo-Wen↗

NASA NTRS2007

Objective Lightning Probability Forecasting for Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Phase II

This report describes the work done by the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to update the lightning probability forecast equations developed in Phase I. In the time since the Phase I equations were developed, new ideas regarding certain predictors were formulated and a desire to make the tool more automated was expressed by 45 WS forecasters. Five modifications were made to the data: 1) increased the period of record from 15 to 17 years, 2) modified the valid area to match the lighting warning areas, 3) added the 1000 UTC CCAFS sounding to the other soundings in determining the flow regime, 4) used a different smoothing function for the daily climatology, and 5) determined the optimal relative humidity (RH) layer to use as a predictor. The new equations outperformed the Phase I equations in several tests, and improved the skill of the forecast over the Phase I equations by 8%. A graphical user interface (GUI) was created in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS) that gathers the predictor values for the equations automatically. The GUI was transitioned to operations in May 2007 for the 2007 warm season.

Lambert, Winifred↗

NASA NTRS2008

Application of the NASA A-Train to Evaluate Clouds Simulated by the Weather Research and Forecast Model

The CloudSat Mission, part of the NASA A-Train, is providing the first global survey of cloud profiles and cloud physical properties, observing seasonal and geographical variations that are pertinent to evaluating the way clouds are parameterized in weather and climate forecast models. CloudSat measures the vertical structure of clouds and precipitation from space through the Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR), a 94 GHz nadir-looking radar measuring the power backscattered by clouds as a function of distance from the radar. One of the goals of the CloudSat mission is to evaluate the representation of clouds in forecast models, thereby contributing to improved predictions of weather, climate and the cloud-climate feedback problem. This paper highlights potential limitations in cloud microphysical schemes currently employed in the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) modeling system. The horizontal and vertical structure of explicitly simulated cloud fields produced by the WRF model at 4-km resolution are being evaluated using CloudSat observations in concert with products derived from MODIS and AIRS. A radiative transfer model is used to produce simulated profiles of radar reflectivity given WRF input profiles of hydrometeor mixing ratios and ambient atmospheric conditions. The preliminary results presented in the paper will compare simulated and observed reflectivity fields corresponding to horizontal and vertical cloud structures associated with midlatitude cyclone events.

Molthan, Andrew L.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Impact of CAMEX-4 Data Sets for Hurricane Forecasts using a Global Model

This study explores the impact on hurricane data assimilation and forecasts from the use of dropsondes and remote-sensed moisture profiles from the airborne Lidar Atmospheric Sensing Experiment (LASE) system. We show that the use of these additional data sets, above those from the conventional world weather watch, has a positive impact on hurricane predictions. The forecast tracks and intensity from the experiments show a marked improvement compared to the control experiment where such data sets were excluded. A study of the moisture budget in these hurricanes showed enhanced evaporation and precipitation over the storm area. This resulted in these data sets making a large impact on the estimate of mass convergence and moisture fluxes, which were much smaller in the control runs. Overall this study points to the importance of high vertical resolution humidity data sets for improved model results. We note that the forecast impact from the moisture profiling data sets for some of the storms is even larger than the impact from the use of dropwindsonde based winds.

Kamineni, Rupa↗

NASA NTRS2007

Preliminary Evaluation of GEOS-5 Aerosol and CO Distributions Forecast During TC4

The NASA Tropical Composition, Cloud, and Climate Coupling (TC4) Mission was based out San Jose, Costa Rica during July and August 2007. During TC4 the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) ran twice-daily 0.5 x 0.666 global 5-day forecasts of the Goddard Earth Observing System atmospheric general circulation model and data assimilation system (GEOS-5). This implementation of GEOS-5 contained an aerosol and carbon monoxide (CO) model to provide online forecast tropospheric distributions of dust, sea salt, sulfate, and carbonaceous aerosols and CO for both the planning of flights and for science. Here we provide a description of the aerosol and CO modeling system and give a preliminary evaluation of forecast tracer distributions. Our comparisons to satellite observations of aerosol and CO show qualitatively similar simulated distributions of tracers to those observed. During TC4 copious amounts of dust were observed in the Caribbean. The model generally reproduced the observations of the timing of dust events and the vertical structure in the lower atmosphere. However, the model simulations had too much aerosol at high altitudes relative to airborne Cloud Physics Lidar observations. The results were similar for biomass burning aerosol and CO tracers, where the model showed higher simulated concentrations of these tracers at aircraft flight altitude than observations.

Colarco, Peter R.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Improving Forecast Skill by Assimilation of Quality-controlled AIRS Temperature Retrievals under Partially Cloudy Conditions

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on board the Aqua satellite has been long recognized as an important contributor towards the improvement of weather forecasts. At this time only a small fraction of the total data produced by AIRS is being used by operational weather systems. In fact, in addition to effects of thinning and quality control, the only AIRS data assimilated are radiance observations of channels unaffected by clouds. Observations in mid-lower tropospheric sounding AIRS channels are assimilated primarily under completely clear-sky conditions, thus imposing a very severe limitation on the horizontal distribution of the AIRS-derived information. In this work it is shown that the ability to derive accurate temperature profiles from AIRS observations in partially cloud-contaminated areas can be utilized to further improve the impact of AIRS observations in a global model and forecasting system. The analyses produced by assimilating AIRS temperature profiles obtained under partial cloud cover result in a substantially colder representation of the northern hemisphere lower midtroposphere at higher latitudes. This temperature difference has a strong impact, through hydrostatic adjustment, in the midtropospheric geopotential heights, which causes a different representation of the polar vortex especially over northeastern Siberia and Alaska. The AIRS-induced anomaly propagates through the model's dynamics producing improved 5-day forecasts.

Reale, O.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenetic Processes during SOP-3 NAMMA in the GEOS-5 Global Data Assimilation and Forecast System

This article investigates the role of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) in tropical cyclogenetic processes associated with a non-developing and a developing African easterly wave observed during the Special Observation Period (SOP-3) phase of the 2006 NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (NAMMA). The two waves are chosen because both interact heavily with Saharan air. A global data assimilation and forecast system, the NASA GEOS-5, is being run to produce a set of high-quality global analyses, inclusive of all observations used operationally but with denser satellite information. In particular, following previous works by the same Authors, the quality-controlled data from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) used to produce these analyses have a better coverage than the one adopted by operational centers. From these improved analyses, two sets of 31 5-day high resolution forecasts, at horizontal resolutions of both half and quarter degrees, are produced. Results show that very steep moisture gradients are associated with the SAL in forecasts and analyses even at great distance from the Sahara. In addition, a thermal dipole (warm above, cool below) is present in the non-developing case. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) show that aerosol optical thickness is higher in the non-developing case. Altogether, results suggest that radiative effect of dust may play some role in producing a thermal structure less favorable to cyclogenesis. Results also indicate that only global horizontal resolutions on the order of 20-30 kilometers can capture the large-scale transport and the fine thermal structure of the SAL, inclusive of the sharp moisture gradients, reproducing the effect of tropical cyclone suppression which has been hypothesized by previous authors from observational and regional modeling perspectives. These effects cannot be fully represented at lower resolutions. Global resolution of a quarter of a degree is a minimum critical threshold to investigate Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis from a global modeling perspective.

Reale, Oreste↗

NASA NTRS2009

Improving Forecast Skill by Assimilation of Quality Controlled AIRS Version 5 Temperature Soundings

The AIRS Science Team Version 5 retrieval algorithm has been finalized and is now operational at the Goddard DAAC in the processing (and reprocessing) of all AIRS data. The AIRS Science Team Version 5 retrieval algorithm contains two significant improvements over Version 4: 1) Improved physics allows for use of AIRS observations in the entire 4.3 micron CO2 absorption band in the retrieval of temperature profile T(p) during both day and night. Tropospheric sounding 15 micron CO2 observations are now used primarily in the generation of cloud cleared radiances R(sub i). This approach allows for the generation of accurate values of R(sub i) and T(p) under most cloud conditions. 2) Another very significant improvement in Version 5 is the ability to generate accurate case-by-case, level-by-level error estimates for the atmospheric temperature profile, as well as for channel-by-channel error estimates for R(sub i). These error estimates are used for Quality Control of the retrieved products. We have conducted forecast impact experiments assimilating AIRS temperature profiles with different levels of Quality Control using the NASA GEOS-5 data assimilation system. Assimilation of Quality Controlled T(p) resulted in significantly improved forecast skill compared to that obtained from analyses obtained when all data used operationally by NCEP, except for AIRS data, is assimilated. We also conducted an experiment assimilating AIRS radiances uncontaminated by clouds, as done operationally by ECMWF and NCEP. Forecast resulting from assimilated AIRS radiances were of poorer quality than those obtained assimilating AIRS temperatures.

Susskind, Joel↗

NASA NTRS2009

Improving Regional Forecast by Assimilating Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) Profiles into WRF Model

In data sparse regions, remotely-sensed observations can be used to improve analyses and produce improved forecasts. One such source comes from the Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS), which together with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), represents one of the most advanced space-based atmospheric sounding systems. The purpose of this paper is to describe a procedure to optimally assimilate high resolution AIRS profile data into a regional configuration of the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) version 2.2 using WRF-Var. The paper focuses on development of background error covariances for the regional domain and background type, and an optimal methodology for ingesting AIRS temperature and moisture profiles as separate overland and overwater retrievals with different error characteristics. The AIRS thermodynamic profiles are derived from the version 5.0 Earth Observing System (EOS) science team retrieval algorithm and contain information about the quality of each temperature layer. The quality indicators were used to select the highest quality temperature and moisture data for each profile location and pressure level. The analyses were then used to conduct a month-long series of regional forecasts over the continental U.S. The long-term impacts of AIRS profiles on forecast were assessed against verifying NAM analyses and stage IV precipitation data.

Chou, Shih-Hung↗

NASA NTRS2007

NASA's Potential Contributions to Avalanche Forecasting Using Active and Passive Microwave Measurements

This Candidate Solution is based on using active and passive microwave measurements acquired from NASA satellites to improve USDA (U.S. Department of Agriculture) Forest Service forecasting of avalanche danger. Regional Avalanche Centers prepare avalanche forecasts using ground measurements of snowpack and mountain weather conditions. In this Solution, range of the in situ observations is extended by adding remote sensing measurements of snow depth, snow water equivalent, and snowfall rate acquired by satellite missions that include Aqua, CloudSat, future GPM (Global Precipitation Measurement), and the proposed SCLP (Snow and Cold Land Processes). Measurements of snowpack conditions and time evolution are improved by combining the in situ and satellite observations with a snow model. Recurring snow observations from NASA satellites increase accuracy of avalanche forecasting, which helps the public and the managers of public facilities make better avalanche safety decisions.

Blonski, Slawomir↗

NASA NTRS2010

The Geostationary Lighting Mapper (GLM) for GOES-R: A New Operational Capability to Improve Storm Forecasts and Warnings

The next generation Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) series is a follow on to the existing GOES system currently operating over the Western Hemisphere. Superior spacecraft and instrument technology will support expanded detection of environmental phenomena, resulting in more timely and accurate forecasts and warnings. Advancements over current GOES capabilities include a new capability for total lightning detection (cloud and cloud-to-ground flashes) from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), and improved spectral (3x), spatial (4x), and temporal (5x) resolution for the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI). The GLM, an optical transient detector and imager operating in the near-IR at 777.4 nm will map all (in-cloud and cloud-to-ground) lighting flashes continuously day and night with near-uniform spatial resolution of 8 km with a product refresh rate of less than 20 sec over the Americas and adjacent oceanic regions, from the west coast of Africa (GOES-E) to New Zealand (GOES-W) when the constellation is fully operational. This will aid in forecasting severe storms and tornado activity, and convective weather impacts on aviation safety and efficiency. In parallel with the instrument development (a prototype and 4 flight models), a GOES-R Risk Reduction Team and Algorithm Working Group Lightning Applications Team have begun to develop the Level 2 algorithms and applications. Proxy total lightning data from the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite and regional test beds are being used to develop the pre-launch algorithms and applications, and also improve our knowledge of thunderstorm initiation and evolution. Real time lightning mapping data are being provided in an experimental mode to selected National Weather Service (NWS) national centers and forecast offices via the GOES-R Proving Ground to help improve our understanding of the application of these data in operational settings and facilitate Day-1 user readiness for this new capability.

Goodman, Steven J.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenetic Processes During SOP-3 NAMMA in the GEOS-5 Global Data Assimilation and Forecast System

This article investigates the role of the Saharan air layer (SAL) in tropical cyclogenetic processes associated with a nondeveloping and a developing African easterly wave observed during the Special Observation Period (SOP-3) phase of the 2006 NASA African. Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (NAMMA). The two waves are chosen because they both interact heavily with Saharan air. A glottal data assimilation and forecast system, the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System. version 5 (GEOS-5), is being run to produce a set of high-9 uality global analyses, inclusive of all observations used operationally but with additional satellite information. In particular, following previous works by the same authors, the duality-controlled data from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) used to produce these analyses have a better coverage than the one adopted by operational centers. From these improved analyses, two sets of 31 five-day high-resolution forecasts, at horizontal resolutions of both half and quarter degrees, are produced. Results indicate that very steep moisture gradients are associated with the SAL in forecasts and analyses, even at great distances from their source over the Sahara. In addition, a thermal dipole in the vertiieat (warm above, cool below) is present in the nondeveloping case. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spoctroradiometer (MODIS) aboard NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites shows that aerosol optical thickness, indicative of more dust as opposed to other factors, is higher in the nondeveloping case. Altogether, results suggest that the radiative effect of dust may play some role in producing a thermal structure less favorable to cyclogenesis. Results also indicate that only global horizontal resolutions on the order of 20-30 km can capture the large-scale transport and the tine thermal structure of the SAL, inclusive of the sharp moisture gradients, reproducing the effect of tropical cyclone suppression that has been hypothesized by previous authors from observational and regional modeling perspectives. Thcse effects cannot be fully represented at lower resolutions, therefore global resolution of a quarter of a degree is a minimum critical threshold necessary to investigate Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis from a global modeling perspective

Reale, Oreste↗

NASA NTRS2010

A Tool for Empirical Forecasting of Major Flares, Coronal Mass Ejections, and Solar Particle Events from a Proxy of Active-Region Free Magnetic Energy

This presentation describes a new forecasting tool developed for and is currently being tested by NASA s Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG) at JSC, which is responsible for the monitoring and forecasting of radiation exposure levels of astronauts. The new software tool is designed for the empirical forecasting of M and X-class flares, coronal mass ejections, as well as solar energetic particle events. Its algorithm is based on an empirical relationship between the various types of events rates and a proxy of the active region s free magnetic energy, determined from a data set of approx.40,000 active-region magnetograms from approx.1,300 active regions observed by SOHO/MDI that have known histories of flare, coronal mass ejection, and solar energetic particle event production. The new tool automatically extracts each strong-field magnetic areas from an MDI full-disk magnetogram, identifies each as an NOAA active region, and measures a proxy of the active region s free magnetic energy from the extracted magnetogram. For each active region, the empirical relationship is then used to convert the free magnetic energy proxy into an expected event rate. The expected event rate in turn can be readily converted into the probability that the active region will produce such an event in a given forward time window. Descriptions of the datasets, algorithm, and software in addition to sample applications and a validation test are presented. Further development and transition of the new tool in anticipation of SDO/HMI is briefly discussed.

Barghouty, A. F.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Objective Lightning Probability Forecasting for Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Phase III

The AMU created new logistic regression equations in an effort to increase the skill of the Objective Lightning Forecast Tool developed in Phase II (Lambert 2007). One equation was created for each of five sub-seasons based on the daily lightning climatology instead of by month as was done in Phase II. The assumption was that these equations would capture the physical attributes that contribute to thunderstorm formation more so than monthly equations. However, the SS values in Section 5.3.2 showed that the Phase III equations had worse skill than the Phase II equations and, therefore, will not be transitioned into operations. The current Objective Lightning Forecast Tool developed in Phase II will continue to be used operationally in MIDDS. Three warm seasons were added to the Phase II dataset to increase the POR from 17 to 20 years (1989-2008), and data for October were included since the daily climatology showed lightning occurrence extending into that month. None of the three methods tested to determine the start of the subseason in each individual year were able to discern the start dates with consistent accuracy. Therefore, the start dates were determined by the daily climatology shown in Figure 10 and were the same in every year. The procedures used to create the predictors and develop the equations were identical to those in Phase II. The equations were made up of one to three predictors. TI and the flow regime probabilities were the top predictors followed by 1-day persistence, then VT and Ll. Each equation outperformed four other forecast methods by 7-57% using the verification dataset, but the new equations were outperformed by the Phase II equations in every sub-season. The reason for the degradation may be due to the fact that the same sub-season start dates were used in every year. It is likely there was overlap of sub-season days at the beginning and end of each defined sub-season in each individual year, which could very well affect equation performance.

Crawford, Winifred C.↗