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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS2014

Exact and Approximate Probabilistic Symbolic Execution

Probabilistic software analysis seeks to quantify the likelihood of reaching a target event under uncertain environments. Recent approaches compute probabilities of execution paths using symbolic execution, but do not support nondeterminism. Nondeterminism arises naturally when no suitable probabilistic model can capture a program behavior, e.g., for multithreading or distributed systems. In this work, we propose a technique, based on symbolic execution, to synthesize schedulers that resolve nondeterminism to maximize the probability of reaching a target event. To scale to large systems, we also introduce approximate algorithms to search for good schedulers, speeding up established random sampling and reinforcement learning results through the quantification of path probabilities based on symbolic execution. We implemented the techniques in Symbolic PathFinder and evaluated them on nondeterministic Java programs. We show that our algorithms significantly improve upon a state-of- the-art statistical model checking algorithm, originally developed for Markov Decision Processes.

Symbolic Execution↗

DOE OSTI2021

ClimateNet: an expert-labeled open dataset and deep learning architecture for enabling high-precision analyses of extreme weather

Abstract. Identifying, detecting, and localizing extreme weather events is a crucial first step in understanding how they may vary under different climate change scenarios. Pattern recognition tasks such as classification, object detection, and segmentation (i.e., pixel-level classification) have remained challenging problems in the weather and climate sciences. While there exist many empirical heuristics for detecting extreme events, the disparities between the output of these different methods even for a single event are large and often difficult to reconcile. Given the success of deep learning (DL) in tackling similar problems in computer vision, we advocate a DL-based approach. DL, however, works best in the context of supervised learning – when labeled datasets are readily available. Reliable labeled training data for extreme weather and climate events is scarce. We create “ClimateNet” – an open, community-sourced human-expert-labeled curated dataset that captures tropical cyclones (TCs) and atmospheric rivers (ARs) in high-resolution climate model output from a simulation of a recent historical period. We use the curated ClimateNet dataset to train a state-of-the-art DL model for pixel-level identification – i.e., segmentation – of TCs and ARs. We then apply the trained DL model to historical and climate change scenarios simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM5.1) and show that the DL model accurately segments the data into TCs, ARs, or “the background” at a pixel level. Further, we show how the segmentation results can be used to conduct spatially and temporally precise analytics by quantifying distributions of extreme precipitation conditioned on event types (TC or AR) at regional scales. The key contribution of this work is that it paves the way for DL-based automated, high-fidelity, and highly precise analytics of climate data using a curated expert-labeled dataset – ClimateNet. ClimateNet and the DL-based segmentation method provide several unique capabilities: (i) they can be used to calculate a variety of TC and AR statistics at a fine-grained level; (ii) they can be applied to different climate scenarios and different datasets without tuning as they do not rely on threshold conditions; and (iii) the proposed DL method is suitable for rapidly analyzing large amounts of climate model output. While our study has been conducted for two important extreme weather patterns (TCs and ARs) in simulation datasets, we believe that this methodology can be applied to a much broader class of patterns and applied to observational and reanalysis data products via transfer learning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Increased frequency of planetary wave resonance events over the past half-century

We demonstrate a tripling in the frequency of planetary wave resonance events over the past halfcentury, coinciding with the rise in persistent boreal summer weather extremes. This increase aligns with changes in the underlying climate conditions favoring these events, including amplified Arctic warming and land-sea thermal contrast. We also observe increased prevalence of resonant amplification events following the mature phase of strong El Niño events, suggesting that such events may precondition the mean state conditions in ways that favor large-scale quasi-stationary wave patterns and quasi-resonant wave amplification. Since the impact of anthropogenic warming on quasi-resonant amplification is not well captured by current-generation climate models, it is likely that models are underpredicting the potential increase, indicating even greater risk of persistent extreme summer weather events with ongoing warming.

Arctic amplification↗

DOE OSTI2025

First measurement of neutron capture multiplicity in neutrino-oxygen neutral-current quasielasticlike interactions using an accelerator neutrino beam

We report the first measurement of neutron capture multiplicity in neutrino-oxygen neutral-current quasielasticlike interactions at the gadolinium-loaded Super-Kamiokande detector using the T2K neutrino beam, which has a peak energy of about 0.6 GeV. A total of 30 neutral-current quasielasticlike event candidates were selected from T2K data corresponding to an exposure of 1.76 × 10 20 protons on target. The 𝛾 ray signals resulting from neutron captures were identified using a neural network. The flux-averaged mean neutron capture multiplicity was measured to be 1.37 ± 0.33 (stat.)$^{+0.17}_{−0.27}$ (syst.), which is compatible within 2.3 sigma than predictions obtained using our nominal simulation. We discuss potential sources of systematic uncertainty in the prediction and demonstrate that a significant portion of this discrepancy arises from the modeling of hadron-nucleus interactions in the detector medium.

particle interactions↗

NASA NTRS2018

TPSAS-NF1676L-30290-DND

The Summer 2017 Ozone Water Land Environmental Transition Study (OWLETS) mission set out to compare the differences in ozone concentrations between inland measurements of air quality, specifically at Langley Research Center (LaRC), and measurements taken over water, specifically on the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel (CBBT), as well as the vertical profiles above each location. Current weather models often predict a gradient in ozone concentration between land and ocean and this campaign attempted to capture this difference using hand-held Personal Ozone Monitors (POMs) in correspondence to ozonesondes and LIDAR measurements. The Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO) is the first geostationary satellite that will take hourly measurements to monitor air pollutants across North America using solar backscatter. The small footprint allows for higher spatial resolution readings of many parameters including O3, NO2 , and aerosol. TEMPO’s higher resolution readings would benefit from validation techniques on the ground. Validation methods usually include comparison to air quality monitoring stations, but they could also incorporate other forms of validation such as comparison to small sensors. In cooperation with TEMPO, OWLETS aims to provide the user community high resolution temporal and spatial, both horizontal and vertical, variability of O3 simultaneously over the land and water during various air quality events to improve forecast models and air quality satellite retrievals. Together, these missions will improve spatial resolution and capture temporal variability of air quality over North America.

Emily Gargulinski↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quantile regression-enriched event modeling framework for dropout analysis in high-temperature superconductor manufacturing

High-temperature superconductor (HTS) tapes have shown promising characteristics of high critical current, which are prerequisites for applications in high-field magnets. Due to the unstable growth conditions in the HTS manufacturing process, however, the frequent occurrences of dropouts in the critical current impede the consistent performance of HTS tapes. To manufacture HTS tapes with large scale, high yield, and uniform performance, it is essential to develop novel data analysis approaches for modeling the dropouts and identifying the related important process parameters. Conventional methods for modeling recurrent events, such as the point process, require the extraction of events from quality measurements. As the critical current is a continuous process, it may not comprehensively represent the drop patterns by transforming the time-series measurements into a set of events. Here, to solve this issue, we develop a novel quantile regression-enriched event modeling (QREM) framework that integrates the non-homogeneous Poisson process for modeling the occurrence of dropouts and the quantile regression for capturing the drop patterns. By incorporating the feature selection and regularization, the proposed framework identifies a set of significant process parameters that can potentially cause the dropouts of HTS tapes. The proposed method is tested on real HTS tapes produced using an advanced manufacturing process, successfully identifying important parameters that influence dropout events including the substrate temperature and voltage. The results demonstrate that the proposed QREM method outperforms the standard point process in predicting the occurrence of dropouts.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2020

Online Event Detection in Synchrophasor Data with Graph Signal Processing

Online detection of anomalies is crucial to enhancing the reliability and resiliency of power systems. We propose a novel data-driven online event detection algorithm with synchrophasor data using graph signal processing. In addition to being extremely scalable, our proposed algorithm can accurately capture and leverage the spatio-temporal correlations of the streaming PMU data. This paper also develops a general technique to decouple spatial and temporal correlations in multiple time series. Finally, we develop a unique framework to construct a weighted adjacency matrix and graph Laplacian for product graph. Case studies with real-world, large-scale synchrophasor data demonstrate the scalability and accuracy of our proposed event detection algorithm. Compared to the state-of-the-art benchmark, the proposed method not only achieves higher detection accuracy but also yields higher computational efficiency.

Event detection↗

DOE OSTI2020

Online Event Detection in Synchrophasor Data with Graph Signal Processing

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Chapter 6: Abuse Response of Batteries Subjected to Mechanical Impact

Electrochemical and thermal models to simulate nominal performance and abuse response of lithium-ion cells and batteries have been reported widely in the literature. Studies on mechanical failure of cell components and how such events interact with the electrochemical and thermal response are relatively less common. This chapter outlines a framework developed under the Computer Aided Engineering for Batteries program to couple failure modes resulting from external mechanical loading to the onset and propagation of electrochemical and thermal events that follow. Starting with a scalable approach to implement failure criteria based on thermal, mechanical, and electrochemical thresholds, we highlight the practical importance of these models using case studies at the cell and module level. The chapter also highlights a few gaps in our understanding of the comprehensive response of batteries subjected to mechanical crash events, the stochastic nature of some of these failure events, and our approach to build safety maps that help improve robustness of battery design by capturing the sensitivity of some key design parameters to heat generation rates under different mitigation strategies.

abuse simulations↗

DOE OSTI2020

Assessment of Low-Altitude Atmospheric Turbulence Models for Aircraft Aeroelasticity

We investigate the dynamic aeroelastic response of large but slow aircraft in low-altitude atmospheric turbulence. To this end, three turbulence models of increasing fidelity, namely, the one-dimensional von Kármán model, the two-dimensional Kaimal model and full three-dimensional wind fields extracted from large-eddy simulations (LES) are used to simulate ambient turbulence near the ground. Load calculations and flight trajectory predictions are conducted for a representative high-aspect-ratio wing aircraft, using a fully coupled nonlinear flight dynamics/aeroelastic model, when it operates in background atmospheric turbulence generated by the aforementioned models. Comparison of load envelopes and spectral content, on vehicles of varying flexibility, shows strong dependency between the selected turbulence model and aircraft aeroelastic response (e.g. 58% difference in the predicted magnitude of the wing root bending moment between LES and von Kármán models). This is mainly due to the presence of large flow structures at low altitudes that have comparable dimensions to the vehicle, and which despite the relatively small wind speeds within the Earth boundary layer, result in overall high load events for slow-moving vehicles. Results show that one-dimensional models that do not capture those effects provide fairly non-conservative load estimates and are unsuitable for very flexible airframe design.

atmospheric turbulence↗

DOE OSTI2026

Substrate-Mediated Evaporation and Stochastic Evolution of Supported Au Nanoparticles

Here, we use in situ transmission electron microscopy with automated tracking to study supported gold nanoparticles (NPs) during high-temperature vacuum annealing. The average mass loss per NP is governed by a flat, nearly size-independent substrate-mediated evaporation profile. On top of this mean shrinkage, individual NPs show significant fluctuations in apparent growth or shrinkage, and NP volume follows a random-walk-like trajectory. To rationalize both the ensemble-mean behavior and the particle-resolved variability, we develop a self-consistent theory that couples substrate-mediated evaporation to collective 2D Ostwald-type mass exchange through a shared adatom field, described in terms of a renormalized screening length and background concentration. In the experimentally relevant regime, the theory predicts an approximately size-independent mean shrinkage rate and clarifies how net mass loss suppresses classical coarsening. Superimposed on this deterministic drift, we quantify stochastic volume trajectories and capture their fluctuation spectrum with a minimal Langevin description consistent with intermittent adatom attachment and detachment events. In addition, we characterize the lateral diffusive motion of NPs, which is responsible for their coalescence. Altogether, our results highlight that stochasticity is intrinsic at the nanoscale and that predicting the evolution of supported NPs at early and intermediate times requires a unified framework combining substrate-mediated evaporation, collective mass exchange, and stochastic fluctuations.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

The study of C-13(a, n)O-16 reactions in the Majorana Demonstrator calibration data

Neutron captures and delayed decays of reaction products are common sources of backgrounds in ultra-rare event searches. In this work, we studied 13C(a, n)1640 O reactions induced by a-particles emitted within the calibration sources of the Majorana Demonstrator. These sources are thorium-based calibration standards enclosed in carbon-rich materials. The reaction rate was estimated by using the 6129 keV ?-rays emitted from the excited 1643 O states that are populated when the incoming a-particles have enough energy. Thanks to the excellent energy performance of the Demonstrator’s germanium detectors, these characteristic photons can be clearly observed in the calibration data. Facilitated by Geant4 simulations, a comparison between the observed 6129 keV photon rates and predictions by a TALYS-based software was performed. The measurements and predictions were found to be consistent with each other, albeit with large statistical uncertainties. This agreement provides supports for further background predictions for (a, n)-reactions in future double-beta decay search efforts.

6 ≤ A ≤ 19↗

DOE OSTI2022

Multiplicative Shot-Noise: A New Route to Stability of Plastic Networks

Fluctuations of synaptic weights, among many other physical, biological, and ecological quantities, are driven by coincident events of two “parent” processes. Here we propose a multiplicative shot-noise model that can capture the behaviors of a broad range of such natural phenomena, and analytically derive an approximation that accurately predicts its statistics. We apply our results to study the effects of a multiplicative synaptic plasticity rule that was recently extracted from measurements in physiological conditions. Using mean-field theory analysis and network simulations, we investigate how this rule shapes the connectivity and dynamics of recurrent spiking neural networks. The multiplicative plasticity rule is shown to support efficient learning of input stimuli, and it gives a stable, unimodal synaptic-weight distribution with a large fraction of strong synapses. The strong synapses remain stable over long times but do not “run away.” Our results suggest that the multiplicative shot-noise offers a new route to understand the tradeoff between flexibility and stability in neural circuits and other dynamic networks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Northern Region Coal Prospects

This presentation was delivered to the audience attending the U.S. DOE/USEA Northern Regional Coal Workshop in Bismarck, ND on March 11, 2026. The presentation highlights the opportunity for coal plants in the region to provide power to military installations and data centers. There is also an analysis on how coal-fired power stations maintain regional supply during extreme cold weather events. Finally, a summary slide is presented that highlights a recent business case analysis on diverting captured carbon dioxide for use in enhanced oil recovery in the Bakken.

Bakken↗

NASA NTRS1993

The importance of short-term forecasting of thunderstorms to launch operations at Cape Canaveral

The local meteorological events leading up to the launch of the space shuttle Atlantis on 2 August 1991 were captured in full-resolution GOES visible data being archived for the Convection and Precipitation/Electrification Experiment. The postponement of the launch on 1 August, and the successful lift-off on the following day provide a good example of the important role played by nowcasting and short-term forecasting at Cape Canaveral. In this brief article, we discuss the local weather conditions prior to, during, and after the launch and demonstrate the importance of short-term forecasting capabilities around the cape during launch operations.

Cooper, Harry J.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Stratospheric Assimilation of Chemical Tracer Observations Using a Kalman Filter: Chi-Square Validated Results and Analysis of Variance and Correlation Dynamics - Pt. 2

A Kalman filter system designed for the assimilation of limb-sounding observations of stratospheric chemical tracers, which has four tunable covariance parameters, was developed in Part I (Menard et al. 1998) The assimilation results of CH4 observations from the Cryogenic Limb Array Etalon Sounder instrument (CLAES) and the Halogen Observation Experiment instrument (HALOE) on board of the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite are described in this paper. A robust (chi)(sup 2) criterion, which provides a statistical validation of the forecast and observational error covariances, was used to estimate the tunable variance parameters of the system. In particular, an estimate of the model error variance was obtained. The effect of model error on the forecast error variance became critical after only three days of assimilation of CLAES observations, although it took 14 days of forecast to double the initial error variance. We further found that the model error due to numerical discretization as arising in the standard Kalman filter algorithm, is comparable in size to the physical model error due to wind and transport modeling errors together. Separate assimilations of CLAES and HALOE observations were compared to validate the state estimate away from the observed locations. A wave-breaking event that took place several thousands of kilometers away from the HALOE observation locations was well captured by the Kalman filter due to highly anisotropic forecast error correlations. The forecast error correlation in the assimilation of the CLAES observations was found to have a structure similar to that in pure forecast mode except for smaller length scales. Finally, we have conducted an analysis of the variance and correlation dynamics to determine their relative importance in chemical tracer assimilation problems. Results show that the optimality of a tracer assimilation system depends, for the most part, on having flow-dependent error correlation rather than on evolving the error variance.

Menard, Richard↗

NASA NTRS2002

Stochastic Estimation and Non-Linear Wall-Pressure Sources in a Separating/Reattaching Flow

Simultaneous wall-pressure and PIV measurements are used to study the conditional flow field associated with surface-pressure generation in a separating/reattaching flow established over a fence-with-splitter-plate geometry. The conditional flow field is captured using linear and quadratic stochastic estimation based on the occurrence of positive and negative pressure events in the vicinity of the mean reattachment location. The results shed light on the dominant flow structures associated with significant wall-pressure generation. Furthermore, analysis based on the individual terms in the stochastic estimation expansion shows that both the linear and non-linear flow sources of the coherent (conditional) velocity field are equally important contributors to the generation of the conditional surface pressure.

Naguib, A.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Search for neutrinoless β-plus-EC decay of 120 Te with CUORE

The Cryogenic Underground Observatory for Rare Events (CUORE) is a large-scale cryogenic experiment searching for neutrinoless double-beta decay (0νββ) in 130 Te. The CUORE detector is made of natural tellurium, providing the possibility of rare event searches on isotopes other than 130 Te. In this work we describe a search for neutrinoless positron-emitting electron capture (β + EC ) decay in 120 Te with a total TeO 2 exposure of 355.7 kg yr, corresponding to 0.2405 kg yr of 120 Te. Albeit 0νββ with two final-state electrons represents the most promising channel, the emission of a positron and two 511-keV γ 's make 0νβ + EC decay signature extremely clear. To fully exploit the potential offered by the detector modularity we include events with different topology and perform a simultaneous fit of five selected signal signatures. Using blinded data we extract a median exclusion sensitivity of 3.4 × 10 22 yr at 90% credibility interval (C.I.). After unblinding we find no evidence of 0νβ + EC signal and set a 90% C.I. Bayesian lower limit of 2.9 × 10 22 yr on 120 Te half-life. This result improves by an order of magnitude the existing limit from the combined analysis of CUORE-0 and Cuoricino.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗